Assessing the impact of future climate change on groundwater recharge in Galicia-Costa, Spain

Climate change can impact the hydrological processes of a watershed and may result in problems with future water supply for large sections of the population. Results from the FP5 PRUDENCE project suggest significant changes in temperature and precipitation over Europe. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in the hydrological district of Galicia-Costa, Spain. Climate projections from two general circulation models and eight different regional climate models were used for the assessment and two climate-change scenarios were evaluated. Calibration and validation of the model were performed using a daily time-step in four representative catchments in the district. The effects on modeled mean annual groundwater recharge are small, partly due to the greater stomatal efficiency of plants in response to increased CO₂ concentration. However, climate change strongly influences the temporal variability of modeled groundwater recharge. Recharge may concentrate in the winter season and dramatically decrease in the summer–autumn season. As a result, the dry-season duration may be increased on average by almost 30 % for the A2 emission scenario, exacerbating the current problems in water supply.     

Modelling the response of shallow groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Plain,China

A three-dimensional groundwater flow model was implemented to quantify the temporal variation of shallow groundwater levels in response to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios over the next 40 years (2011–2050) in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (Jing-Jin-Ji) Plain, China. Groundwater plays a key role in the water supply, but the Jing-Jin-Ji Plain is facing a water crisis. Groundwater levels have declined continuously over the last five decades (1961–2010) due to extensive pumping and climate change, which has resulted in decreased recharge. The implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) will provide an opportunity to restore the groundwater resources. The response of groundwater levels to combined climate and water-diversion scenarios has been quantified using a groundwater flow model. The impacts of climate change were based on the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP’s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset for future high (A2), medium (A1B), and low (B1) greenhouse gas scenarios; precipitation data from CMIP3 were applied in the model. The results show that climate change will slow the rate of decrease of the shallow groundwater levels under three climate-change scenarios over the next 40 years compared to the baseline scenario; however, the shallow groundwater levels will rise significantly (maximum of 6.71 m) when considering scenarios that combine climate change and restrictions on groundwater exploitation. Restrictions on groundwater exploitation for water resource management are imperative to control the decline of levels in the Jing-Jin-Ji area.     

The influence of model structure on groundwater recharge rates in climate-change impact studies

Numerous modeling approaches are available to provide insight into the relationship between climate change and groundwater recharge. However, several aspects of how hydrological model choice and structure affect recharge predictions have not been fully explored, unlike the well-established variability of climate model chains—combination of global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). Furthermore, the influence on predictions related to subsoil parameterization and the variability of observation data employed during calibration remain unclear. This paper compares and quantifies these different sources of uncertainty in a systematic way. The described numerical experiment is based on a heterogeneous two-dimensional reference model. Four simpler models were calibrated against the output of the reference model, and recharge predictions of both reference and simpler models were compared to evaluate the effect of model structure on climate-change impact studies. The results highlight that model simplification leads to different recharge rates under climate change, especially under extreme conditions, although the different models performed similarly under historical climate conditions. Extreme weather conditions lead to model bias in the predictions and therefore must be considered. Consequently, the chosen calibration strategy is important and, if possible, the calibration data set should include climatic extremes in order to minimise model bias introduced by the calibration. The results strongly suggest that ensembles of climate projections should be coupled with ensembles of hydrogeological models to produce credible predictions of future recharge and with the associated uncertainties.     

GIS for the assessment of the groundwater recharge potential zone

Water resources in Taiwan are unevenly distributed in spatial and temporal domains. Effectively utilizing the water resources is an imperative task due to climate change. At present, groundwater contributes 34% of the total annual water supply and is an important fresh water resource. However, over-exploitation has decreased groundwater availability and has led to land subsidence. Assessing the potential zone of groundwater recharge is extremely important for the protection of water quality and the management of groundwater systems. The Chih-Pen Creek basin in eastern Taiwan is examined in this study to assess its groundwater resources potential. Remote sensing and the geographical information system (GIS) are used to integrate five contributing factors: lithology, land cover/land use, lineaments, drainage, and slope. The weights of factors contributing to the groundwater recharge are derived using aerial photos, geology maps, a land use database, and field verification. The resultant map of the groundwater potential zone demonstrates that the highest recharge potential area is located towards the downstream regions in the basin because of the high infiltration rates caused by gravelly sand and agricultural land use in these regions. In contrast, the least effective recharge potential area is in upstream regions due to the low infiltration of limestone.     

Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain,Iran

It is important to predict how groundwater levels in an aquifer will respond to various climate change scenarios to effectively plan for how groundwater resources will be used in the future. Due to the overuse of groundwater resources and the multi-year drought in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain in Iran, some land subsidence and a drop in groundwater levels has taken place, and without active management, further degradation of the groundwater resource is possible under predicted future climate change scenarios in the country. To determine the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the region, the groundwater model GMS was coupled with the atmospheric circulation model HADCM3 using scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 2016–2030. The results of the climate modelling suggest that the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will experience an increase in minimum temperature and maximum temperature of, respectively, between 0.03 and 0.47, and 0.32–0.45 °C for this time period. The results of the groundwater modelling suggest that water levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will continue to decline over the forecast period with decreases of 34.51, 36.57 and 33.58 m being predicted, respectively, for climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Consequently, groundwater resources in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will urgently need active management to minimize the effects of ongoing water level decline and to prevent saltwater intrusion and desertification in the region.     

Inverse groundwater modelling in the Willunga Basin,South Australia

A new inverse technique for modelling groundwater flow, based on a functional minimization technique, has been used to calibrate a groundwater flow model of a subregion of the Port Willunga aquifer within the Willunga Basin in South Australia. The Willunga Basin is the location of extensive viticulture, irrigated primarily by groundwater, the levels and quality of which have declined significantly over the last 40 years. The new method is able to generate estimates of transmissivity, storativity and groundwater recharge over the whole subregion as a time-varying continuous surface; previous methods estimate local discrete parameter values at specific times. The new method has also been shown to produce accurate head values for the subregion and very good estimates of groundwater recharge. Its ultimate goal will be to provide a new and invaluable tool for significantly improved groundwater resource management. Supported in part by US National Science Foundation grants, DMS-0107492 and DMS-0079478.     

Stochastic groundwater modeling of a sedimentary aquifer: evaluation of the impacts of abstraction scenarios under conditions of reduced recharge

A transient finite difference groundwater flow model has been calibrated for the Nasia sub-catchment of the White Volta Basin. This model has been validated through a stochastic parameter randomization process and used to evaluate the impacts of groundwater abstraction scenarios on resource sustainability in the basin. A total of 1500 equally likely model realizations of the same terrain based on 1500 equally likely combinations of the data of the key aquifer input parameters were calibrated and used for the scenario analysis. This was done to evaluate model non-uniqueness arising from uncertainties in the key aquifer parameters especially hydraulic conductivity and recharge by comparing the realizations and statistically determining the degree to which they differ from each other. Parameter standard deviations, computed from the calibrated data of the key parameters of hydraulic conductivity and recharge, were used as a yardstick for evaluating model non-uniqueness. All model realizations suggest horizontal hydraulic conductivity estimates in the range of 0.03–78.4 m/day, although over 70 % of the area has values in the range of 0.03–14 m/day. Low standard deviations of the horizontal hydraulic conductivity estimates from the 1500 solutions suggest that this range adequately reflects the properties of the material in the terrain. Lateral groundwater inflows and outflows appear to constitute significant components of the groundwater budgets in the terrain, although estimated direct vertical recharge from precipitation amounts to about 7 % of annual precipitation. High potential for groundwater development has been suggested in the simulations, corroborating earlier estimates of groundwater recharge. Simulation of groundwater abstraction scenarios suggests that the domain can sustain abstraction rates of up to 200 % of the current estimated abstraction rates of 12,960 m³/day under the current recharge rates. Decreasing groundwater recharge by 10 % over a 20-year period will not significantly alter the results of this abstraction scenario. However, increasing abstraction rates by 300 % over the period with decreasing recharge by 10 % will lead to drastic drawdowns in the hydraulic head over the entire terrain by up to 6 m and could cause reversals of flow in most parts of the terrain.     

Understanding the past to interpret the future: comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.     

Groundwater supply and demand from southern Africa’s crystalline basement aquifer: evidence from Malawi

Failure of borehole sources in weathered and fractured crystalline basement aquifers in Malawi in southern Africa has been linked with poor borehole design, mechanical failure and badly sited boreholes. However, recent work in Malawi indicates that demand may now exceed long-term resource potential in some places and that this is also a cause of water point failure. An 11-year climate cycle (including a wet and dry period) necessitates overdraft from groundwater storage during the dry-cycle years before episodic rainfall events in the wetter part of the cycle again recharge the aquifers. Data, particularly groundwater hydrograph data, are sparse, but sufficient to evaluate the long-term renewable groundwater potential for both fractured and weathered basement-aquifer types in each of the 15 management areas in Malawi. The groundwater potential or long-term renewable resource (recharge) is given by the sum of Darcian throughflow and dry-season depletion of storage. Estimated rural demand exceeds the renewable resource in the fractured-rock aquifer in two management units and in the weathered-rock aquifer in two other units. Although there is inherent uncertainty in the water-balance estimates, the likelihood that rural demand is exceeding long-term average recharge in some areas is cause for concern.     

Impact of water demand on hydrological regime under climate and LULC change scenarios

The present study focuses on an assessment of the impact of future water demand on the hydrological regime under land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change scenarios. The impact has been quantified in terms of streamflow and groundwater recharge in the Gandherswari River basin, West Bengal, India. dynamic conversion of land use and its effects (Dyna-CLUE) and statistical downscaling model (SDSM) are used for quantifying the future LULC and climate change scenarios, respectively. Physical-based semi-distributed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used for estimating future streamflow and spatiotemporally distributed groundwater recharge. Model calibration and validation have been performed using discharge data (1990–2016). The impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrological variables are evaluated with three scenarios (for the years 2030, 2050 and 2080). Temperature Vegetation Dyrness Index (TVDI) and evapotranspiration (ET) are considered for estimation of water-deficit conditions in the river basin. Exceedance probability and recurrence interval representation are considered for uncertainty analysis. The results show increased discharge in case of monsoon season and decreased discharge in case of the non-monsoon season for the years 2030 and 2050. However, a reverse trend is obtained for the year 2080. The overall increase in groundwater recharge is visible for all the years. This analysis provides valuable information for the irrigation water management framework.     

Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment,Belgium

The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km², is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.     

Climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia

Climate change has become a major global concern and threatens the security of natural environmental resources, including groundwater, especially for Cambodia. In this study, literature reviews related to climate change and groundwater resources in Cambodia were evaluated to address the impact of climate change on the groundwater environment. In Cambodia, global climate change will likely affect available water resources by driving changes in the groundwater recharge and usage pattern. Despite a general increase in the mean annual rainfall, a reduction in rainfall is anticipated during the dry season, which could lead to shortages of fresh water during the dry season. The impact of climate change on water resource environments can significantly affect national economic development. Thus, strategic management plansfor groundwater in response to climate change should be established to ensure the security of water resources in Cambodia.     

Improved water resource management for a highly complex environment using three-dimensional groundwater modelling

A three-dimensional groundwater model was used to improve water resource management for a study area in north-west Switzerland, where drinking-water production is close to former landfills and industrial areas. To avoid drinking-water contamination, artificial groundwater recharge with surface water is used to create a hydraulic barrier between the contaminated sites and drinking-water extraction wells. The model was used for simulating existing and proposed water management strategies as a tool to ensure the utmost security for drinking water. A systematic evaluation of the flow direction between existing observation points using a developed three-point estimation method for a large number of scenarios was carried out. It is demonstrated that systematically applying the developed methodology helps to identify vulnerable locations which are sensitive to changing boundary conditions such as those arising from changes to artificial groundwater recharge rates. At these locations, additional investigations and protection are required. The presented integrated approach, using the groundwater flow direction between observation points, can be easily transferred to a variety of hydrological settings to systematically evaluate groundwater modelling scenarios.     

Choosing appropriate techniques for quantifying groundwater recharge

Various techniques are available to quantify recharge; however, choosing appropriate techniques is often difficult. Important considerations in choosing a technique include space/time scales, range, and reliability of recharge estimates based on different techniques; other factors may limit the application of particular techniques. The goal of the recharge study is important because it may dictate the required space/time scales of the recharge estimates. Typical study goals include water-resource evaluation, which requires information on recharge over large spatial scales and on decadal time scales; and evaluation of aquifer vulnerability to contamination, which requires detailed information on spatial variability and preferential flow. The range of recharge rates that can be estimated using different approaches should be matched to expected recharge rates at a site. The reliability of recharge estimates using different techniques is variable. Techniques based on surface-water and unsaturated-zone data provide estimates of potential recharge, whereas those based on groundwater data generally provide estimates of actual recharge. Uncertainties in each approach to estimating recharge underscore the need for application of multiple techniques to increase reliability of recharge estimates. Electronic Publication     

Artificial groundwater recharge to a semi-arid basin: case study of Mujib aquifer,Jordan

Mujib watershed is an important groundwater basin which is considered a major source for drinking and irrigation water in Jordan. Increased dependence on groundwater needs improved aquifer management with respect to understanding deeply recharge and discharge issues, planning rates withdrawal, and facing water quality problems arising from industrial and agricultural contamination. The efficient management of this source depends on reliable estimates of the recharge to groundwater and is needed in order to protect Mujib basin from depletion. Artificial groundwater recharge was investigated in this study as one of the important options to face water scarcity and to improve groundwater storage in the aquifer. A groundwater model based on the MODFLOW program, calibrated under both steady- and unsteady-state conditions, was used to investigate different groundwater management scenarios that aim at protecting the Mujib basin. The scenarios include variations of abstraction levels combined with different artificial groundwater recharge quantities. The possibilities of artificial groundwater recharge from existing and proposed dams as well as reclaimed municipal wastewater were investigated. Artificial recharge options considered in this study are mainly through injecting water directly to the aquifer and through infiltration from reservoir. Three scenarios were performed to predict the aquifer system response under different artificial recharge options (low, moderate, and high) which then compared with no action (recharge) scenario. The best scenario that provides a good recovery for the groundwater table and that can be feasible is founded to be by reducing current abstraction rates by 20% and implementing the moderate artificial recharge rates of 26 million(M)m³/year. The model constructed in this study helps decision makers and planners in selecting optimum management schemes suitable for such arid and semi-arid regions.     

Recharge and discharge controls on groundwater travel times and flow paths to production wells for the Ammer catchment in southwestern Germany

Travel times and flow paths of groundwater from its recharge area to drinking-water production wells will govern how the quality of pumped groundwater responds to contaminations. Here, we studied the 180 km² Ammer catchment in southwestern Germany, which is extensively used for groundwater production from a carbonate aquifer. Using a 3-D steady-state groundwater model, four alternative representations of discharge and recharge were systematically explored to understand their impact on groundwater travel times and flow paths. More specifically, two recharge maps obtained from different German hydrologic atlases and two plausible alternative discharge scenarios were tested: (1) groundwater flow across the entire streambed of the Ammer River and its main tributaries and (2) groundwater discharge via a few major springs feeding the Ammer River. For each of these scenarios, the groundwater model was first calibrated against water levels, and subsequently travel times and flow paths were calculated for production wells using particle tracking methods. These computed travel times and flow paths were indirectly evaluated using additional data from the wells including measured concentrations of major ions and environmental tracers indicating groundwater age. Different recharge scenarios resulted in a comparable fit to observed water levels, and similar estimates of hydraulic conductivities, flow paths and travel times of groundwater to production wells. Travel times calculated for all scenarios had a plausible order of magnitude which were comparable to apparent groundwater ages modelled using environmental tracers. Scenario with groundwater discharge across the entire streambed of the Ammer River and its tributaries resulted in a better fit to water levels than scenario with discharge at a few springs only. In spite of the poorer fit to water levels, flow paths of groundwater from the latter scenario were more plausible, and these were supported by the observed major ion chemistry at the production wells. We concluded that data commonly used in groundwater modelling such as water levels and apparent groundwater ages may be insufficient to reliably delineate capture zones of wells. Hydrogeochemical information relating only indirectly to groundwater flow such as the major ion chemistry of water sampled at the wells can substantially improve our understanding of the source areas of recharge for production wells.     

气候影响评价中统计降尺度若干问题的探讨

全球气候模式是目前研究未来气候变化的重要工具,然而其较低的空间分辨率使其难以被直接用于区域尺度的气候影响评价中,统计降尺度常常被用于弥补这一不足。对统计降尺度的3种主要方法:转化函数法,天气分型法和天气发生器法的最新研究进展进行了归纳;论述了统计降尺度中的各种不确定性;总结了统计降尺度在中国的发展和应用。统计降尺度与动力降尺度的比较和结合、极端事件的降尺度以及统计降尺度的不确定性将成为未来的主要发展方向。     

1956—2016年新疆平原区地下水资源量变化及其影响因素分析

探索变化环境下新疆平原区地下水资源量的变化趋势,是识别地下水环境问题、加强地下水资源管理的基础工作。基于水利部门历次水资源调查评价成果、水利统计资料汇编等数据,对1956—2016年新疆平原区地下水资源量变化及其影响因素进行分析,对变化原因进行探讨。结果表明:1956—2016年新疆平原区地下水资源量呈减少趋势,其中地下水天然补给量基本稳定,地表水体转化补给量持续减少;从地下水补给结构分析,渠系渗漏补给量大幅减少,导致地下水资源量减少;河道渗漏补给量增加,抵消了地下水资源量的减幅。平原区灌溉面积扩大导致的农田灌溉耗水量增大是地下水资源量减少的根本原因,人类活动对地下水资源量的影响大于气候变化。     

Comparison of the AVI,modified SINTACS and GALDIT vulnerability methods under future climate-change scenarios for a shallow low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland

A shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifer in southern Finland surrounded by the Baltic Sea is vulnerable to changes in groundwater recharge, sea-level rise and human activities. Assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability of groundwater under climate scenarios was performed for the aquifer area by utilising the results of a published study on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge and sea-level rise on groundwater–seawater interaction. Three intrinsic vulnerability mapping methods, the aquifer vulnerability index (AVI), a modified SINTACS and GALDIT, were applied and compared. According to the results, the degree of groundwater vulnerability is greatly impacted by seasonal variations in groundwater recharge during the year, and also varies depending on the climate-change variability in the long term. The groundwater is potentially highly vulnerable to contamination from sources on the ground surface during high groundwater recharge rates after snowmelt, while a high vulnerability to seawater intrusion could exist when there is a low groundwater recharge rate in dry season. The AVI results suggest that a change in the sea level will have an insignificant impact on groundwater vulnerability compared with the results from the modified SINTACS and GALDIT. The modified SINTACS method could be used as a guideline for the groundwater vulnerability assessment of glacial and deglacial deposits in inland aquifers, and in combination with GALDIT, it could provide a useful tool for assessing groundwater vulnerability to both contamination from sources on the ground surface and to seawater intrusion for shallow unconfined low-lying coastal aquifers under future climate-change conditions.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater in Australia: a sensitivity analysis of recharge

Groundwater recharge is a complex process reflecting many interactions between climate, vegetation and soils. Climate change will impact upon groundwater recharge but it is not clear which climate variables have the greatest influence over recharge. This study used a sensitivity analysis of climate variables using a modified version of WAVES, a soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer model (unsaturated zone), to determine the importance of each climate variable in the change in groundwater recharge for three points in Australia. This study found that change in recharge is most sensitive to change in rainfall. Increases in temperature and changes in rainfall intensity also led to significant changes in recharge. Although not as significant as other climate variables, some changes in recharge were observed due to changes in solar radiation and carbon dioxide concentration. When these variables were altered simultaneously, changes in recharge appeared to be closely related to changes in rainfall; however, in nearly all cases, recharge was greater than would have been predicted if only rainfall had been considered. These findings have implications for how recharge is projected to change due to climate change.