Earthquake hazard in Jordan

An estimate of the maximum macroseismic intensities and ground accelerations which might be expected for the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is made. The inferred maximum magnitudes lie in the range of 6.1 to 7.3 although the possibility that larger earthquakes can occur with long recurrence times cannot be precluded. Peak horizontal accelerations in the range of 0.4 to 0.5 g can be expected in Jordan. Probabilistic estimates indicate that the odds are about even (50-50) that an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 6 will occur within 80 years.     

地下水位对近震和远震异常响应的比较——以汶川地震和苏门答腊地震为例

地震引起的深层地下水位异常具有多样性和复杂性的特点。为了进一步探索深层地下水位动态与地震作用过程之间的联系机制,发挥深层地下水位对地震活动的指示作用,以2008年汶川Ms8.0地震和2007年苏门答腊Ms8.5地震为研究背景,对川、滇、陕、甘、渝地区井水位对两次地震的响应特征进行了比较。研究发现:地下水位远震响应形态主要以振荡型和阶变型为主,异常出现的时间较晚;地下水位近震响应形态比较复杂,以阶变型、脉冲型以及振荡型为主,异常出现的时间几乎与地震的发生同步。根据深层地下水位对地壳应力的响应机理,分析了各典型井水位对远震和近震不同响应的原因。结果表明:地下水位对远震的响应主要是由于含水层介质受到地震波应力的作用;对近震异常响应原因比较复杂,主要是含水层介质受到区域构造应力和地震波应力的共同作用的结果,震中距越小,含水层受到震源构造应力场的控制作用越大。     

Extreme Earthquake and Earthquake Perceptibility Study in Greece and its Surrounding Area

The sample interval for the selection of extreme magnitudes plays an important part in the quality of Gumbel model fitting. A short sample interval can produce many observations, which is helpful in obtaining a reliably fitting model. However a short sample interval can bring many dummy ``observations', a condition which adversely biases the fitting. The short sample interval also increases the chance to introduce non-independent observations as well, which violates a basic requirement of the Gumbel model. On the other hand, a large time interval not only reduces the number of observations, but also enlarges the observation error. Thus, for Greece, the most suitable parameters of the third Gumbel extreme model are obtained by using a sample interval which produces minimum error. In consideration of the reliability of the seismic data, earthquakes with magnitude M 5.5 in Greece and its surrounding region after 1900 are used mainly in the present paper. In order to obtain well resolved contour maps with smooth changes a 2°× 2° cell with half-degree overlap strategy was used to scan the region. The most expected largest earthquake for the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. Likewise, the events with magnitude at a probability of 90\% of non-exceedance over the next fifty, one hundred and two hundred years are estimated for each cell. In parallel to this procedure we also analyze the 67 shallow seismic zones outlined by Papazachos and his colleagues and detail individual zone results where these are obtained. The most perceptible earthquake magnitude for the range of intensities I = {VI}, VII and VIII are also calculated. All results show that the areas around the Hellenic Arc and the Cephalonia Transform Fault for Greece have comparatively high frequency of destructive earthquakes accompanied by a high occurrence probability of moderate earthquakes (M 5.5).     

地震研究进展与趋势——全球地震科学钻探研究综述

近年来大地震频繁发生,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,认识地震和地震发生机制已成为地质学家和地球物理学家共同的奋斗目标。科学钻探是获取地下深部物质、了解深部信息的最直接、最有效、最可靠的方法,因此,科学钻探是认识和揭示地震断裂作用的最佳手段。本文介绍了目前世界上主要的地震科学钻探计划,包括位于环太平洋地震带的日本野岛(Nojima)断层科学钻探计划、台湾车笼埔断裂钻探计划(TCDP)、圣安德烈斯断裂深部观测钻探计划(SAFOD)、新西兰深部断层钻探计划(DFDP)、日本南海海槽发震带试验钻探计划(NanTroSEIZE)、日本海沟地震快速钻探计划(JFAST)和大陆内部地震的汶川地震断裂带科学钻探计划(WFSD),简要概括了这些科学钻探计划所取得的有关地震研究的重要进展与贡献,并且通过这些成果探讨了未来地震研究趋势。     

Vulnerability Analysis in Earthquake Loss Estimate

The abodes in Costa Rica have almost the samevulnerability as the old civil houses in China, whichrepresent the vulnerability in worst cases. On theother hand, the high quality buildings in Middle Easthave the same vulnerability as the reinforced concretebuildings in China due to employing thestate-of-art-design and construction techniques, whichrepresent the vulnerability of the best cases. Themacroeconomic vulnerability is defined as the ratio ofphysical economic loss caused by earthquake to theGross Domestic Product (GDP) within a given area.Since the total macroscopic loss is the sum of lossesof different types of buildings and facilities, themacroeconomic vulnerability must be greater than thatof best cases while less than that of worst cases. Inthe present paper, the implications of macroeconomicvulnerability to earthquake loss estimate arediscussed.     

汶川大地震震中喷发气、石的“爆烈式泥火山”场景——兼讨论地震的超临界水流体退相爆发成因

经多次现场核实,5．12汶川地震震中实为：有巨量喷发气、石的“爆烈式泥火山”伴大地震一巨量黑烟喷发和成千万m^3灰砂夹巨石千米抛射,同时引发烈度Ⅺ级的Ms8．0大地震。震中的此场景显然不能用传统构造运动成因自圆其说。汶川大地震只能是地内超临界水流体（简称SCW）退相爆发成因：地震带地下（10-20）km深处,汇聚了巨量SCW（H2O-CO2-空气-CH体系）流体,当其首先上窜到震中莲花心沟下方,减压至临界点（Pc=22．1Mpa）时,瞬间爆发退相,放出能量巨大和体积膨胀千倍的气体,爆发炸碎孕震库上方围岩,造成龙门山断裂带瞬间释放能量,形成大地震。     

Earthquake frequency and energy in Greece

On the basis of a newly published, revised earthquake catalogue for the Greek area, a study is made of its seismicity in terms of earthquake frequency and energy as functions of space, time and magnitude. In addition, attempts are made to estimate the maximum possible magnitudes as functions of space. The study is essentially a methodological experiment, with tectonophysical and engineering results.     

Earthquake waves in a random medium

Measurements are conducted with small samples in the laboratory and thus for all practical purposes the medium is macroscopically homogeneous. On the other hand, the uncertainties and the irregular changes in situ are macroscopic inhomogeneities. This work is an attempt to account for these stochastic changes in the elastic properties and density in a rational manner. The method used is that of Karal and Keller which is based on the use of the Green's function and neglect of third-order correlations. The resulting integral equations are solved by Laplace transform. The analysis indicates that the energy decay in the mean motion through random mode coupling introduces damping into even a purley'elastic medium and enhances the damping in a significant manner in a hysteretic viscoelastic medium. This consideration is important in relating the damping and dispersion characteristics of wave in situ to those measured in the laboratory. The formulation is extended to multilayer systems through transfer matrices and to arbitrary inputs by Fourier transform. Sample calculations are presented for single and multilayer systems to obtain response spectra and for the response to Gaussian and actual earthquake input motions.     

Earthquake risk mitigation in Istanbul museums

Considering the number of endangered museums in Istanbul and the size of their collections, assessing and mitigating the earthquake risk is an immense task by any standard. This paper provides a status report on the current earthquake risk mitigation efforts taken by the museums in Turkey. It summarizes several projects that have been carried out over the past few years to protect museums and its collections from earthquake damage and defines future actions that would mitigate earthquake risks associated with museum buildings and their contents.     

台湾地区近期7级以上大地震前的中强地震条带现象

本文分析了台湾地区近期 5 5级以上地震的时空图象 ,发现台湾地区从 93年开始5 5级以上地震逐渐形成一条中强地震共轭条带 ,其中主条带长仅 30 0公里左右。强震条带形成后 ,1 999年 9月 2 1日在主条带的西南段 1 /3处条带的西侧边缘南投发生了7 6级地震。南投地震后 ,5 5级以上地震条带仍然存在 ,2 0 0 2年 3月 31日在共轭条带交汇处附近苏沃海外发生了 7 5级地震。在共轭条带内相隔两年半时间里发生两次 7级以上地震实属罕见     

论震源辐射问题

地震震源辐射过程是现代地震学中一个复杂而关键的课题,而震源谱的研究则是认识震源辐射的重要一环。地震波由震源传播至地球表面,经历了一系列诸如路径衰减、地壳表层放大和场地效应等物理作用。其中震波衰减效应包括几何扩散、非弹性衰减(YQ(f))和近地表高频衰减。地壳放大作用主要发生于表层或浅层波阻抗梯度带。为了更确切地描述和理解震源辐射谱,必须从观测到的地面运动记录中把地震源谱分离出来,从而消除传播路径和地表场地效应。强震运动记录是研究震源谱的基本资料。采用频率域方法,以傅里叶变换为工具,可使时间域的卷积问题简化为频率域的乘积运算。研究区域含日本、墨西哥、土尔其、加利福尼亚、加拿大西部(British Columbia)和北美东部(ENA)等典型构造区。结果表明,在适当消除路径和场地效应之后,震源谱的基本特征只随震级变化,而与研究地区无直接关系,亦即震源谱基本独立于构造区域、震源距和震源深度。这对于未来强震运动预测和地震灾害评估具有十分重要的理论和实际意义。与此同时,高频衰减因子(Kappa)与构造环境有关：低Kappa工资值相应于较稳定的板内构造环境下的硬岩场地(如北美东部),而相对较高的Kappa值则相应于比较活跃的构造环境下的场地条件,如日本、墨西哥、加拿大西海岸、美国西部的加利福尼亚和土耳其的转换构造带。强震运动水平与垂直分量的频谱比RH/V(f)作为频率的函数可近似描述为地壳放大和场地高频衰减的综合效应：即RH/V(f)=A(f)^-πkf。其中,A(f)是地壳表层放大函数,k是Kappa因子。通过震源谱的对比研究。提供了一个新的震级转换公式。     

地震与气象异常

本文介绍了地震前和地震后气象异常的一些研究成果。统计结果表明,强震前1～4年震中地区出现干旱的概率比较大。我国寒冷时期地震的频数远较温暖时期高,地震前震中地区有增温现象。海洋和周缘发生特大地震过后,北半球和中国气温下降明显,黄河和长江可能出现洪灾。地震前、地震时和地震后,地震与气象的关系,是一个值得探索研究的领域。     

Earthquake risk and slope stability in Jerusalem

Jerusalem is located 25 km from the active Dead Sea fault, which is a part of the Dead Sea Rift System Despite its proximity to the fault, the city has escaped past seismic events relatively undamaged. In contrast to the rest of the city, the Mount of Olives did suffer damage as a result of landslides, as evidenced by a large landslide scarp found in the western slope The unstable slopes in Jerusalem are located on soft Senonian chalk. In the past, these areas were left undeveloped and as a result, damage from earthquakes was relatively slight However, during the past 15 years, with the expansion of Jerusalem, construction has been taking place on unstable slopes as well This could result in heavy damage during future earthquakes A map showing the areas of highest risk is presented. It is recommended that the unstable slopes be reserved as green areas.     

Earthquake hazards and community resilience in Baluchistan

Resilience is widely used from a variety of research perspectives; however, community resilience in particular is applied to a number of natural hazards and disasters-related studies, programs, and activities. It is also acknowledged that its measurement is cumbersome but not impossible. The prime objective of this paper is to measure the community resilience of an earthquake-prone area in Baluchistan. The article presents the concept of resilience, its approaches, selection of indicators, formulation of subjective assessment method for weighting the indicators, and finally, developing the community resilience index. For the community resilience measurement, a survey was conducted among 200 households in two earthquake risk zones of Quetta city, using simple random sampling method. The overall composite community resilience index revealed that the resilience is low in both the zones??A and B. However, it is revealed that there is a significant difference between the zones when compared against the components and indicators. Community resilience components such as economic, institutional, and physical have received higher index values in Zone B as compared to Zone A. Based on the findings, it is recommended to improve the socioeconomic, institutional, and structural (housing) conditions of the community by raising the community awareness and preparedness, implementing building codes, and providing income-generating activities in order to enhance the community resilience to cope up with earthquake hazards in the future.     

Earthquake and its forecasting

Present status of earthquake prediction and warning is reviewed with special emphasis on the Large-Scale Earthquake Countermeasures Act in Japan. Following possible regionalization of occurrences of a great earthquake by means of historical data analysis and crustal strain monitoring, statistics of earthquake precursors are presented along with the nature of precursors of various disciplines.The precursor time of the first-kind precursor depends on the magnitude of the main shock. The larger the magnitude is, the longer is the precursor time. The precursor of the second kind has a precursor time amounting to about a few hours, while that for the third kind ranges from a few to several ten days. A practical approach to actual prediction is suggested on the basis of the analysis of precursors. Difficulties in converting a prediction to a warning is briefly pointed out as well.     

Earthquake risk and its mitigation in Istanbul

Physical and societal vulnerability to earthquakes and expected physical, social, economic, and industrial losses in Istanbul are outlined. This risk quantification has served as the basis for the Earthquake Masterplan. Risk-mitigation activity that was, and is, being conducted by several agencies and in different context and sectors are elaborated.