Recent environmental changes on Banks Island (N.W.T., Canadian Arctic) quantified using fossil diatom assemblages

Banks Island (N.W.T.) has become a focal point for climate change studies in the Canadian Arctic. However, long-term climatic and environmental data are very sparse from this large island, as they are for the entire southwestern region of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In this paleolimnological study, diatom species assemblage shifts documented in cores collected from a pond and a lake on Banks Island were interpreted to represent a response to climate warming commencing in the nineteenth century. We found that, although the timing and overall nature of the species changes in the two cores were consistent, the signal was muted in the deeper site likely as a result of differences in ice cover extent and duration between lakes and ponds. A high-resolution study was also conducted from a second pond, at sub-decadal resolution, that only spanned the last ∼60 years. In the deeper lake site, Fragilaria construens and F. pinnata dominated the assemblages, similar to those noted in other high Arctic regions where lakes are characterized by extended ice cover. In contrast, Denticula kuetzingii dominated the shallower ponds and, in the case of the pond core representing the longer time period, this taxon increased in the post-1850 sediments, likely coincident with climate warming. In all cores, diatom assemblages became more diverse and Achnanthes species (particularly A. minutissima) increased from ∼1850 to the present, similar to changes documented in other Arctic regions. Beta diversity values calculated for the diatom species changes indicated that assemblage shifts in the Banks Island cores were of similar magnitude to those recorded in other Arctic regions with high species turnover, such as Ellesmere Island. A diatom-based Total Nitrogen (TN) transfer function previously developed for Banks Island was applied to the three ²¹⁰Pb dated cores as an exploratory tool for inferring past changes in nitrogen concentrations. In both the lake and pond cores, diatom-inferred TN concentrations tended to increase in the more recent sediments, as may be expected with warming; however these trends were not very distinct.     

Late Holocene environmental changes inferred from diatoms in a lake on the western Taimyr Peninsula, northern Russia

Changes in the diatom assemblages preserved in a sediment core taken from a small lake located north of arctic treeline on the western Taimyr Peninsula, Russia, were examined in order to investigate late Holocene (i.e., ca 5000 cal yr BP to present) climatic and environmental changes within the region. Early diatom assemblages were dominated by benthic Fragilaria taxa and indicate a transitional phase in the lake history, most likely reflecting lake development and environmental change associated with treeline retreat to the south of the study site. Concurrent with pollen and macrofossil evidence of a vegetation shift to shrub tundra in the catchment basin at ca 4200 cal yr BP, an increase in cold-water taxa, followed by little change in diatom assemblages until ca 2800 cal yr BP, suggests that conditions were relatively cool and stable at this time. The last 2000 years of the Middendorf Lake record have been marked by fluctuating limnological conditions, characterized by striking successional shifts between Fragilaria pinnata and Aulacoseira distans var. humilis. Recent conditions in Middendorf Lake indicate an increase in diatom taxa previously rare in the record, possibly associated with twentieth-century climatic warming. The Middendorf Lake record indicates that significant limnological change may occur in the absence of catchment vegetation shifts, suggesting late-Holocene decoupling of aquatic and terrestrial responses to climatic and hydrological change. Our study results represent one of the few paleoecological records currently available from northern Russia, and highlight the need for further development of calibration data sets from this region.     

Ratios of stable carbon isotopes in some High Arctic plants and lake sediments

¹³C/¹²C ratios for a number of High Arctic vascular plants (51 determinations), mosses (11), and freshwater algae (11) show considerable variation, particularly among the freshwater algae (range from-6.9 to -36.3). In some cases the stable carbon ratios on modern and fossil materials provide guidance as to whether marine waters formerly occupied a given pond or lake basin. In other cases the ¹³C values for algae collected along the present-day shore of a pond or lake bear no relation to the values obtained on constituents preserved within the bottom sediments, suggesting that major changes have occurred in the last few thousand years.Geological Survey of Canada Contribution No. 17291. Contribution No. 41 from the Cape Herschel Project.     

Late Holocene paleoenvironmental changes in subtropical Taiwan inferred from pollen and diatoms in lake sediments

We analyzed pollen, spores, diatoms, organic carbon, nitrogen, and δ¹³C of organic matter in lake sediments to infer climate changes and reconstruct the paleo-environment of subtropical Taiwan over the past ∼1300 years. A 31.5-cm sediment core that represents deposition from 650 AD to present was taken from a mountain lake, Duck Pond, located 760 m a.s.l. We differentiated five zones using cluster analysis on pollen and spore assemblages. Fluctuations in the relative abundances of arboreal taxa, herbaceous plants, and ferns reflect changes in the relative amounts of woody versus grassland vegetation. Such shifts are associated with changes in temperature and humidity and are consistent with climatic periods reported for the temperate region of central China. Climate changes inferred from the pollen assemblages are also correlated well with changes in the ratios of fern spores to pollen, with organic carbon to nitrogen, and with the δ¹³C values in the sediments. Fluctuations in these data throughout the entire core were in good agreement with the changes in pH inferred from diatom assemblages. This study provides evidence of climate change in northern Taiwan over the past 1.3 millennia, assuming that climate can be inferred from the ratio of arboreal to non-arboreal pollen and from the pH of the aquatic environment.     

An overview of late Holocene climate and environmental change inferred from Arctic lake sediment

The 14 papers in this Special Issue of the Journal of Paleolimnology report new records of Holocene climate and environmental change from Arctic lakes, with emphasis on the last 2000 years. The study sites span the high latitudes of North America and extend into northwestern Europe. The studies rely on multiple proxy indicators to reconstruct past climate, including: varve thicknesses, chironomid, diatom, and pollen assemblages, biogenic-silica and organic-matter content, oxygen-isotope ratios in diatoms, and the frequency of lake-ice-rafted aggregates. These proxies primarily document changes in past summer temperatures, the main control on physical and biological processes in lakes at high latitudes. The records will be integrated into a larger network of paleoclimate sites to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of climate change and to compare the paleoclimate inferences with the output of general circulation models. This is the Introduction to a series of fourteen papers published as a special issue dedicated to reconstructing late Holocene climate change from Arctic lake sediments. The special issue is a contribution to the International Polar Year and was edited by Darrell Kaufman.     

Multiple ecological and hydrological changes recorded in varved sediments from Sanagak Lake,Nunavut, Canada

A combination of biotic, sedimentary and biogeochemical proxies was used to investigate the timing and causes of post-18th century changes in the stratigraphic record of a large, deep lake on the Boothia Peninsula, Nunavut, Canada (70°15′ N, 94°30′ W). A varve chronology verified with radioisotopic dating (²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs) revealed a complex pattern of environmental dynamics since c. AD 1830. An increase in the diatoms Asterionella formosa, Stephanodiscus minutulus and Cyclotella atomus and a decrease in Aulacoseira taxa in the uppermost centimetre of sediment suggested that environmental conditions have favoured the growth of smaller and/or lighter planktonic species since the 1980s. Longer term changes in some benthic species, the chrysophyte cysts to diatom valve ratio, %C, and C/N ratios suggest declined river inflow and a relative reduction in allochthonous inputs during the last century. Higher than average δ¹⁵N values in the late 19th to early 20th centuries coincide with changes in bulk carbon and nitrogen profiles, and below average values since approximately 1950 may be associated with increased atmospheric N loading or reduced productivity. Biogenic silica and organic carbon accumulation in the sediments suggest a possible decline in lake production during the 20th century that may be associated with changes in the river discharge regime. The short and long-term ecological and biogeochemical trends were also reflected in the sedimentary structure through declining varve thickness for the duration of the record and an abrupt change in sedimentology in the uppermost 1 cm, coinciding with deposition since ca. AD 1987. Together, these biological and physical changes suggest changes in hydroclimatic conditions in the 20th century, and an increase in planktonic diatom taxa since the 1980s that coincides with a distinct period of climate warming.     

Late Holocene storm-trajectory changes inferred from the oxygen isotope composition of lake diatoms,south Alaska

The oxygen isotope ratios of diatoms (δ¹⁸O_diatom), and the oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios of lake water (δW) of lakes in south Alaska provide insight into past changes in atmospheric circulation. Lake water was collected from 31 lakes along an elevation transect and diatoms were isolated from lake sediment from one lake (Mica Lake) in south Alaska. In general, δW values from coastal lakes overlap the global meteoric water line (GMWL). δW values from interior lakes do not lie on the GMWL; they fall on a local evaporation line trajectory suggesting source isotopes are depleted with respect to maritime lakes. Sediment cores were recovered from 58 m depth in Mica Lake (60.96° N, 148.15° W; 100 m asl), an evaporation-insensitive lake in the western Prince William Sound. Thirteen calibrated ¹⁴C ages on terrestrial macrofossil samples were used to construct an age-depth model for core MC-2, which spans 9910 cal years. Diatoms from 46, 0.5-cm-thick samples were isolated and analyzed for their oxygen isotope ratios. The analyses employed a newly designed, stepwise fluorination technique, which uses a CO₂ laser-ablation system, coupled to a mass spectrometer, and has an external reproducibility of ±0.2‰. δ¹⁸O_diatom values from Mica Lake sediment range between 25.2 and 29.8‰. δ¹⁸O_diatom values are relatively uniform between 9.6 and 2.6 ka, but exhibit a four-fold increase in variability since 2.6 ka. High-resolution sampling and analyses of the top 100 cm of our lake cores suggest large climate variability during the last 2000 years. The 20th century shows a +4.0‰ increase of δ¹⁸O_diatom values. Shifts of δ¹⁸O_diatom values are likely not related to changes in diatom taxa or dissolution effects. Late Holocene excursions to lower δ¹⁸O_diatom values suggest a reduction of south-to-north storm trajectories delivered by meridional flow, which likely corresponds to prolonged intervals when the Aleutian Low pressure system weakened. Comparisons with isotope records of precipitation (δP) from the region support the storm-track hypothesis, and add to evidence for variability in North Pacific atmospheric circulation during the Holocene.

Field observations of recent transgression on northern and eastern Melville Island, western Canadian Arctic Archipelago

After ~ 11,000 years of glacio-isostatically induced forced regression, geomorphological evidence indicates that the coastline of eastern Melville Island, western Canadian Arctic Archipelago, is now being transgressed. Recently developed coastal features associated with this transgression include: drowned gullies and small estuaries, barriers and lagoons, barrier islands, erosional notches, backstepping beaches, and drowned tundra vegetation and vehicle tracks dating from the 1970s. We mainly attribute this relative sea-level rise to the eastward migration of a peripheral crustal forebulge. Furthermore, the reported transgression also includes a component from recent eustatic sea-level rise during the 20th century. Recent earthquakes recorded in the Gustav-Lougheed Arch Seismic Zone located in Byam Martin Channel, 70 km east of Melville Island, suggest that neotectonics could also be involved in local relative sea-level adjustments. Other factors associated with global warming, especially the formation of an earlier shore-ice lead coupled with increased storm activity might also be responsible for some of the coastal changes. Our study indicates that the current zero isobase, separating areas of net transgression from those of net regression, is now located off the east coast of the island. Our field observations support recent glacio-isostatic modelling that shows the island is presently undergoing a transgression.     

中国内陆区湖泊沉积所反映的全新世干湿变化

湖泊沉积记录的环境演变是全球变化的重要研究领域之一,通过对中国内陆区中30 个湖泊研究成果的总结和梳理,探讨了全新世以来该地区干湿变化的规律和区域分异。通过降水量结合传统分区方法将中国内陆区分为西北干旱区、东亚季风边缘区和青藏高原区。对每个湖泊样点以500 年为时间间隔,以孢粉为主要干湿指标,综合氧同位素、有机质及碳酸盐等,将湖泊干湿状况划分3 个干湿等级（干旱,半湿润,湿润）,建立区域干湿指数。结果表明,中国内陆不同区域全新世可能经历了不同的干湿变化过程：①西北干旱区基本上是早中全新世干旱,中晚全新世相对湿润,但区域差异明显;②东亚季风边缘区早全新世早期干旱,早全新世晚期和中全新世相对湿润,晚全新世干旱;③青藏高原区的湿润时期主要发生在早中全新世,但是不同地区有所不同。对比分析显示：西北干旱区的干湿变化可能受西风环流控制,但在时间和强度上区域内部差异较明显;东亚季风边缘区可能主要受东亚季风控制;青藏高原地区早中全新世的湿润可能与印度季风的增强相关。     

Rapid 20th century environmental change on northeastern Baffin Island,Arctic Canada inferred from a multi-proxy lacustrine record

The Arctic has a disproportionately large response to changes in radiative forcing of climate, and arctic lacustrine ecosystems respond sensitively to these changes. The goal of this research is to generate high-resolution climate records for the past two millennia using multiple proxies in order to place 20th and 21st century climate and environmental change into a long-term context. We use a ¹⁴C- and ²¹⁰Pb-dated surface core from Lake CF8 on northeastern Baffin Island, Arctic Canada to generate a high-resolution multiproxy reconstruction of climate and environmental change. Throughout the late Holocene, primary productivity in Lake CF8 was low, but increased almost 20-fold in the past 200 years. Insect (Chironomidae) assemblages also show dramatic changes since 1950 AD, with cold stenothermous chironomid taxa disappearing from the record altogether. These changes in productivity and chironomid assemblages are unprecedented in the past 5,000 years. The dramatic ecological shifts that occurred at Lake CF8 have also been observed elsewhere in the Arctic, and will likely continue at ever-increasing rates as anthropogenic inputs of green house gases continue to cause climate warming and enhanced lacustrine primary production.     

Diatoms reveal complex spatial and temporal patterns of recent limnological change in West Greenland

Diatoms in sediment cores were analysed across a range of stratigraphic resolutions along a transect of 23 lakes spanning the ice-free margin of the west coast of Greenland (~67°N), to explore spatial and temporal patterns of recent (last ~150 years) environmental change in the region. These records display heterogeneous lake development trajectories over the last several centuries. Estimates of species composition turnover (beta-diversity) since 1850 AD are among the lowest for lakes in the Arctic, and are comparable to “unimpacted” reference lakes from temperate regions. Most of the change that occurred in West Greenland lakes pre-dates potential industrial anthropogenic effects, while post-1850 change is well within the natural range of variability for these systems. Nonetheless, a spatial pattern in core “top–bottom” changes is apparent across the transect: lakes in the arid interior of the region, adjacent to the ice sheet, and those with higher pH, register greater change than those in the more maritime climate of the coast. This suggests that climate plays an indirect role in the recent development of these lakes, and that recent anthropogenic forcing has not yet exceeded major ecological thresholds in this region.     

Inferences concerning climatic change from a deeply frozen lake on Rundfjeld,Ellesmere Island,Arctic Canada

A small lake on top of Rundfjeld, central Ellesmere Island, at an elevation of approximately 830 m, is frozen to the bottom, and the thickness of lake ice present is at least 5.45 m. Under present climatic conditions the lake does not thaw to the bottom, even during the warmest summers; i.e., 3 to 4 m of ice still floored the deepest part of the lake in mid-August 1987. A radiocarbon age determination via accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) on a sample of the filamentous green alga Mougeotia sp., recovered from the lake ice at a depth below 4 m, gave 5730±70 BP (TO-530). The date indicates that the lake was probably completely open for an unspecified period of time during the warmest part of the Hypsithermal Interval. This situation is in agreement with data derived from a variety of other sources in Ellesmere Island and adjacent Greenland.     

Diatom responses to 20th century climate-related environmental changes in high-elevation mountain lakes of the northern Canadian Cordillera

Diatom responses to 20th century climate-related environmental change were assessed from three high-elevation lakes in the northern Canadian Cordillera. Dominance of small benthic Fragilaria diatoms reflect the generally cold conditions with long periods of ice cover that have characterized these mountain lakes over at least the last ~300 years until the period of recent warming. At the turn of the 20th century, salient shifts in the diatom assemblages reveal individualistic limnological responses with the onset of climate warming trends in northwest Canada. At YK3 Lake, an oligotrophic, chemically dilute, alpine lake, increased representation of the planktonic Cyclotella pseudostelligera may reflect longer ice-free conditions and/or more stable thermal stratification. By contrast, in the more productive, alkaline lakes (BC2 and Deadspruce lakes), changes to more diverse assemblages of periphytic diatoms suggest greater benthic habitat availability, most likely associated with the enhanced growth of aquatic plants with lengthening of the growing seasons. In addition, diatom assemblages from these lakes suggest less alkaline conditions following the onset of 20th century climate warming. Continued alkalinity reduction throughout the 20th century is qualitatively inferred at the lower elevation, treeline lake (Deadspruce Lake), while greater representation of alkaliphilous Fragilaria diatoms after ~1950 suggested increased alkalinity at the alpine BC2 Lake. Our results confirm the sensitivity of diatoms from high-elevation mountain lakes to regional climate change in northwest Canada. Individualistic limnological responses to 20th century warming are potentially attributed to differences in their physical setting (e.g., bedrock geology, elevation, catchment vegetation) in this complex mountain environment.     

Quantitative paleotemperature estimates from δ18O of chironomid head capsules preserved in arctic lake sediments

A paleoenvironmental perspective of temperature change is paramount to understanding the significance of recent warming in the Arctic. Late Quaternary sediments from many arctic lakes provide environmental archives with decadal resolution, but reconstructions are hampered by the relative insensitivity of many traditional proxies to temperature. Here, we show that the δ¹⁸O of head capsules of chironomid larvae are equilibrated with the δ¹⁸O of lakewaters in which they live. In suitable lakes, lakewater δ¹⁸O is controlled by the δ¹⁸O of local precipitation, which is strongly correlated to mean annual air temperature (MAT). From this correlation, chironomid δ¹⁸O can be used to examine past changes in MAT. We illustrate the potential of this novel approach to paleothermometry with examples from two arctic lakes that reveal strong regional paleoclimatic gradients in the early Holocene.     

Distribution and Autecology of Chrysophyte Cysts from High Arctic Svalbard Lakes: Preliminary Evidence of Recent Environmental Change

Chrysophycean stomatocyst assemblages were analysed from the sediments of 17 lakes and ponds from Svalbard as one component of a multi-proxy investigation of recent environmental change in the high Arctic. Sediment cores and water chemistry were collected from each of the study lakes, and chrysophyte stomatocysts were investigated from the top 0.25 cm of sediment (present-day) and bottom (i.e., bottom of short sediment core, pre-industrial) sediment samples. This study represents the first undertaking of chrysophyte cyst morphology and distribution on Svalbard. A total of 153 cyst morphotypes were described with light microscopy and/or scanning electron microscopy, of which 21 are new forms. Canonical correspondence analysis indicates that the present-day distribution of cysts is significantly related to pH (p= 0.02), altitude (p= 0.02), and Na⁺ (p= 0.04). Marked shifts in chrysophyte cyst assemblages were recorded between the top and bottom sediment samples of most lakes. A recent study has demonstrated that Svalbard lakes receive atmospheric contaminants from both local and remote sources. The observed assemblage shifts may be the result of the combined effects of these point sources and long-range pollutants, or the effects of recent climate change, or both.     

Climate of the past millennium inferred from varved proglacial lake sediments on northeast Baffin Island,Arctic Canada

This study uses ^239+240Pu-dated varved sediments from Big Round Lake, a proglacial lake on northeast Baffin Island, Arctic Canada to generate a 1000-year-long, annual-resolution record of past climate. Varve thickness is positively correlated with July–August–September temperature measured at Clyde River, 70 km to the north of the lake (r = 0.46, p < 0.001). We therefore interpret the variability and trends in varve thickness to partially represent summer temperature. The coolest Little Ice Age temperatures occurred in this record from 1575 to 1760 AD and were approximately 1.5°C cooler than today (average from 1995 to 2005 AD) and 0.2°C cooler than the last millennium (average from 1000 to 2000 AD). Pre-twentieth-century warmth occurred during two intervals, 970–1150 AD and 1375–1575 AD; temperatures were approximately 1.2°C cooler than today, but 0.1°C warmer than the last millennium. The Big Round Lake varve-thickness record contains features similar to that reconstructed elsewhere in the eastern Canadian Arctic. This high-resolution quantitative record expands our understanding of arctic climate during the past millennium.

Five thousand years of sediment transfer in a high arctic watershed recorded in annually laminated sediments from Lower Murray Lake,Ellesmere Island,Nunavut, Canada

Sediments in Lower Murray Lake, northern Ellesmere Island, Nunavut Canada (81°21′ N, 69°32′ W) contain annual laminations (varves) that provide a record of sediment accumulation through the past 5000+ years. Annual mass accumulation was estimated based on measurements of varve thickness and sediment bulk density. Comparison of Lower Murray Lake mass accumulation with instrumental climate data, long-term records of climatic forcing mechanisms and other regional paleoclimate records suggests that lake sedimentation is positively correlated with regional melt season temperatures driven by radiative forcing. The temperature reconstruction suggests that recent temperatures are ~2.6°C higher than minimum temperatures observed during the Little Ice Age, maximum temperatures during the past 5200 years exceeded modern values by ~0.6°C, and that minimum temperatures observed approximately 2900 varve years BC were ~3.5°C colder than recent conditions. Recent temperatures were the warmest since the fourteenth century, but similar conditions existed intermittently during the period spanning ~4000–1000 varve years ago. A highly stable pattern of sedimentation throughout the period of record supports the use of annual mass accumulation in Lower Murray Lake as a reliable proxy indicator of local climatic conditions in the past.

Paleoclimate changes inferred from stable isotopes and magnetic properties of organic-rich lake sediments in Arctic Norway

Stable isotope measures in organic matter are frequently used as indicators of past climate change. Although such analyses can provide valuable information, there is considerable uncertainty associated with studies of organic-rich sediments, especially those from Arctic lakes and bogs. We studied stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen, and magnetic properties in a sediment core from a small alkaline lake with a high sedimentation rate, Lake Nattmålsvatn, Norway. There is good correspondence among the different sediment variables during the late glacial, and they seemingly reflect major climate variations such as the Allerød Interstade and the Younger Dryas, as well as the transition into the current interglacial. During the early Holocene, however, these relationships are more complex and δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N values do not stabilize until ~7,500 cal year BP. A significant excursion in all variables occurs between 6,850 and 6,500 cal year BP and is interpreted to represent climate deterioration. Holocene δ¹³C values vary little and indicate that isotopically-depleted dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in the lake, possibly influenced by methanotrophy and high pCO₂, dominated the lake’s carbon cycle. Holocene δ¹⁵N is similarly muted, likely due to the availability of abundant dissolved nitrogen. Bulk organic matter is probably dominated by phytoplankton remains produced beneath the ice cover in late spring and during ice breakup when isotopically-depleted DIC, pCO₂ and ammonium availability were maximal. Thus, use of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N as indicators of Holocene paleoclimate and paleoproductivity variation can be challenging in a lake such as Nattmålsvatn, where ice cover isolates the basin for large parts of the year, allowing dissolved respiratory gases to accumulate in the water column. In contrast, magnetic variables appear to better track climate variations. In particular, runoff-driven influx of minerogenic sediments shows high variability that can be attributed to regional changes in Holocene winter precipitation. The most striking shifts occur between 4,000 and 2,300 cal year BP.     

Changes in diatom assemblages in Lake C2 (Ellesmere Island, Arctic Canada): response to basin isolation from the sea and to other environmental changes

Diatoms preserved in the sediments of Lake C2 (82°50 N, 76°00 W), a high arctic meromictic lake, track changes in the lake's salinity which have occurred as the basin was isolated from the sea. An assemblage dominated by marine taxa, such as Chaetoceros species, Nitzschia cylindrus and Diploneis spp., was replaced by a Cyclotella kuetzingiana var. planetophora dominated freshwater flora. A brief brackish period separates the two assemblages. Relatively little floristic change occurred within either the marine or freshwater periods, indicating rather stable environmental conditions, except that rheophilous diatoms fluctuated in relative abundance during the lacustrine phase, perhaps tracking past changes in discharge from inflowing streams. These may reflect periods of warmer, wetter environmental conditions.This is the eighth in a series of papers published in this issue on the Taconite Lakes Project. These papers were collected by Dr R. S. Bradley.     

Development of a chironomid-based air temperature inference model for the central Canadian Arctic

Subfossil midge remains were identified in surface sediment recovered from 88 lakes in the central Canadian Arctic. These lakes spanned five vegetation zones, with the southern-most lakes located in boreal forest and the northern-most lakes located in mid-Arctic tundra. The lakes in the calibration are characterized by ranges in depth, summer surface-water temperature (SSWT), average July air temperature (AJAT) and pH of 15.5 m, 10.60°C, 8.40°C and 3.69, respectively. Redundancy analysis (RDA) indicated that maximum depth, pH, AJAT, total nitrogen-unfiltered (TN-UF), Cl and Al capture a large and statistically significant fraction of the overall variance in the midge data. Inference models relating midge abundances and AJAT were developed using different approaches including: weighted averaging (WA), weighted averaging-partial least squares (WA-PLS) and partial least squares (PLS). A chironomid-based inference model, based on a two-component WA-PLS approach, provided robust performance statistics with a high coefficient of determination (r ² = 0.77) and low root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP = 1.03°C) and low maximum bias. The use of a high-resolution gridded climate data set facilitated the development of the midge-based inference model for AJAT in a region with a paucity of meteorological stations and where previously only the development of a SSWT inference model was possible. David Porinchu and Nicolas Rolland contributed equally to the work.