Bio-cultural refugia—Safeguarding diversity of practices for food security and biodiversity

Food security for a growing world population is high on the list of grand sustainability challenges, as is reducing the pace of biodiversity loss in landscapes of food production. Here we shed new insights on areas that harbor place specific social memories related to food security and stewardship of biodiversity. We call them bio-cultural refugia. Our goals are to illuminate how bio-cultural refugia store, revive and transmit memory of agricultural biodiversity and ecosystem services, and how such social memories are carried forward between people and across cohorts. We discuss the functions of such refugia for addressing the twin goals of food security and biodiversity conservation in landscapes of food production. The methodological approach is first of its kind in combining the discourses on food security, social memory and biodiversity management. We find that the rich biodiversity of many regionally distinct cultural landscapes has been maintained through a mosaic of management practices that have co-evolved in relation to local environmental fluctuations, and that such practices are carried forward by both biophysical and social features in bio-cultural refugia including; genotypes, artifacts, written accounts, as well as embodied rituals, art, oral traditions and self-organized systems of rules. Combined these structure a diverse portfolio of practices that result in genetic reservoirs—source areas—for the wide array of species, which in interplay produce vital ecosystem services, needed for future food security related to environmental uncertainties, volatile financial markets and large scale conflicts. In Europe, processes related to the large-scale industrialization of agriculture threaten such bio-cultural refugia. The paper highlights that the dual goals to reduce pressures from modern agriculture on biodiversity, while maintaining food security, entails more extensive collaboration with farmers oriented toward ecologically sound practices.     

对基于土地应对气候变化的新认知

2019年8月7日IPCC《气候变化与土地特别报告》决策者摘要获得通过,报告涉及对基于土地应对气候变化不同措施的评估,取得一些新的认知,包括定量评估基于土地的40种综合措施对提高气候变化减缓和适应能力、防治荒漠化和土地退化、增强粮食安全、保护生物多样性和水资源及促进可持续发展的效益,提出在防治荒漠化和土地退化及保障粮食安全过程中提高气候变化适应和减缓能力的措施,评估了实施不同措施的风险、限制、障碍和保障政策等。在措施的分类、气候变化适应的主体对象,以及风险和政策分析等方面还存在一些不足。评估报告结论将对我国建立基于土地的应对气候变化的对策,促进把应对气候变化与防治荒漠化和土地退化、保护生态环境与增强粮食安全工作结合,制定相关政策等方面都具有重要的启示意义。     

Hegemonic transitions and global shifts in social metabolism: Implications for resource-rich countries. Introduction to the special section

This introductory paper to the special section of Global Environmental Change entitled “Global transformations, social metabolism and the dynamics of socio-environmental conflicts” argues that the emergence of new global economic centers is inducing a major expansion in the global social metabolism—the flows of energy and materials into the world economy —, a transformation in the systems for the extraction and provision of natural resources, as well as setting the conditions for socio-environmental conflicts at the commodity frontiers, particularly in areas with a dense human occupation of the territory. We point out that we are currently experiencing global transformations that constitute the beginning of a new historical phase of modern capitalism. The aim of the paper is to draw an overall picture of such transformations, to discuss some of their implications for resource-rich countries, particularly in Latin America and Africa, and by doing so to provide an analytical framework that allow us to make explicit the linkages between the different papers that compose the special section.     

Climate change,social vulnerability and child nutrition in South Asia

Despite recent advancements in global population well-being and food security, climate change threatens to undermine child nutritional health, particularly for marginalized populations in tropical low- and middle-income countries. South Asia is at particular risk for climate-driven undernutrition due to a combination of historical weather exposures, existing nutritional deficits, and a lack of sanitation access. Previous studies have established that precipitation extremes increase rates of undernutrition in this region, but the existing literature lacks adequate consideration of temperature anomalies, mediating social factors, and the developmentally-relevant timing of exposure. We combine high-resolution temperature and precipitation data with large-sample survey data on household demographics and child anthropometry, using an approach that incorporates three key developmental periods and a rigorous fixed effects design. We find that precipitation extremes in the first year of life significantly decrease children’s height-for-age (HAZ) in South Asia. The detrimental effects of extreme precipitation are especially concentrated in under-resourced households, such as those lacking access to proper sanitation and education for women, while anomalous heat is particularly harmful for children in Pakistan, though it tends to benefit children in some demographic groups. These results indicate that nutritional status in South Asia is highly responsive to climate exposures, and that addressing sanitation infrastructure and other development priorities is a pathway towards reducing this vulnerability.     

Partnerships in forest governance

One of the major current global environmental challenges is the conservation of forest biodiversity. Deforestation and forest degradation continue despite international governmental agreements on forest conservation. In recent years private regulation in the international forest governance system has increased. Numerous partnerships between governments, business and/or civil society have been developed. Most of them focus on a single threat to forest biodiversity. This private regulation has had a limited positive impact. The most valuable contribution has been filling the gap of lack of implementation by governments. The forest governance system can become more effective if metagovernance is strengthened.     

Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.     

Who governs here? Informal resource extraction,state enforcement,and conflict in Ghana

Over the past two decades, “illegal” natural resource extraction has become a significant driver of environmental change and social conflict across the Global South. In response, numerous Sub-Saharan African states have engaged in governance reforms that heed calls to securitize – or, establish and consolidate state control over – natural resources. In Ghana, securitization has served to entrench the informal economy as domestic producers, marginalized in the process of reform, continue to utilize non-state institutions to maintain access. While the Ghanaian state has branded “illegal” resource extraction a major environmental, social, and national security concern, it has responded to this threat unevenly; it has violently enforced its authority in some contexts but remained relatively indifferent in others. This article explores the phenomenon of selective enforcement to explain patterns of violence that have emerged between state and society in response to both securitization and informality. Drawing on a multimethod approach, I find that natural resource governance authority remains fragmented across resource contexts, and that the configuration of authority and interests on the ground shapes the extent of state intervention. I propose a natural resource typology that identifies when the state is most likely to enforce its authority, and the degree of violent conflict likely to result. Ultimately, I contend that domestic patterns of enforcement are shaped primarily by: 1) competition with local power holders over resource entitlements and 2) global conservation and extraction priorities. While specific to Ghana, this argument can provide important insights into the relationship between informal extraction, state enforcement, and social conflict in other Global South contexts.     

Rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land management across the Global South

Research on how urbanization affects rural agriculture has typically focused on loss of farmland due to urban expansion. However, more distal pathways that could link urbanization to rural agriculture, including enhanced connectivity through rural-urban migration and market access, remain poorly understood. Here, we assess whether greater rural-urban connectivity is associated with changes in agricultural land management across the Global South. Such associations are complex, and thus difficult to measure at this scale. We therefore take a two-step approach to investigate these relationships. First, using a multivariate clustering approach, we define a series of rural-urban connectivity typologies from existing spatial data on land use, demographics, rural market access, and rural population change (as a proxy for outmigration). We examine the variation in key agricultural outcome variables (mean cereal crop yields, % of attainable yields met, and cropping frequency) within the typologies, which shows that greater overall connectivity (market access and population change) is associated with higher cereal yields, yield attainment, and cropping frequency. Second, building on these clustering results, we develop hypotheses about the relationship between rural-urban connectivity and agricultural land use intensity. We then use propensity score matching to test these hypotheses by comparing locations with similar sociodemographic and land use characteristics. When controlling for gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, agricultural land, and population density, rural locations with relatively high market access, negative population change, and greater built-up area have significantly higher mean nitrogen application rates, irrigated areas, and cereal yields across the Global South. Results vary by region, but greater rural-urban connectivity and urban extents are generally associated with higher overall agricultural inputs and yields, particularly in Asia. However, we find little support for a relationship between connectivity and either % attainable yields met or field size. Our findings stress the need to better understand the mechanisms that link urbanization processes and agricultural management at different spatiotemporal scales.     

WIS的实现技术研究及应用

WIS是世界气象组织（WMO）正在实施和建立的新一代信息系统,是未来支撑WMO所有计划以及其他国际组织有关计划的数据传输和服务平台。WIS由国家中心、数据收集或产品中心和全球信息系统中心（GISC）等三级功能中心组成,其中,GISC是WIS的核心功能中心,承担WMO及有关国际组织各项计划的实时数据和产品的收集分发,提供全部WIS数据的访问接入。中国气象局作为世界气象组织中有重要影响力的会员,建成北京GISC,成为WIS中支撑责任区内及区域间数据交换的核心功能中心之一是中国气象局的既定目标。本文介绍了WIS的功能结构,分析了元数据同步、数据发现、数据同步等WIS/GISC关键功能的实现技术及其在北京GISC系统设计和开发中的应用。     

Country and regional staple food price indices for improved identification of food insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization are often used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in regions that are food insecure areas, are isolated from international export market price trends. Here we present country and regional staple food price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We examine the market integration of regional and country level staple food price indices for 35 countries in West, East and Southern Africa and in Central Asia and Central America. We found that cereal price indices constructed using local market prices of within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier warning of food security crises.     

Climate change technology transfer: a new paradigm and policy agenda

This article proposes a shift to a paradigm that is more extensive than the current narrow focus on North—South climate change technology transfers, towards a more inclusive ‘global’ paradigm. An implication of the paradigm shift is that there should be a concomitant expansion of the policy agendas of the international climate and trade regimes. The traditional North—South paradigm of technology transfer ignores the increasing importance of developing countries as sources of advanced climate-friendly technologies, and therefore ignores South—North and South—South transfers. Further, whereas the North—South paradigm has emphasized developing countries' intellectual property rights policies as barriers to technology transfers, the ‘global’ paradigm focuses attention on trade and investment policy barriers, including developed countries' policies that inhibit technology transfer from developing countries. The analysis is relevant to international negotiations in the post-2012 climate regime, and is also relevant to the future development of the trade regime—not only at the multilateral level in the WTO, but also at the regional and bilateral levels.     

Social-ecological and regional adaptation of agrobiodiversity management across a global set of research regions

To examine management options for biodiversity in agricultural landscapes, eight research regions were classified into social-ecological domains, using a dataset of indicators of livelihood resources, i.e., capital assets. Potential interventions for biodiversity-based agriculture were then compared among landscapes and domains. The approach combined literature review with expert judgment by researchers working in each landscape. Each landscape was described for land use, rural livelihoods and attitudes of social actors toward biodiversity and intensification of agriculture. Principal components analysis of 40 indicators of natural, human, social, financial and physical capital for the eight landscapes showed a loss of biodiversity associated with high-input agricultural intensification. High levels of natural capital (e.g. indicators of wildland biodiversity conservation and agrobiodiversity for human needs) were positively associated with indicators of human capital, including knowledge of the flora and fauna and knowledge sharing among farmers. Three social-ecological domains were identified across the eight landscapes (Tropical Agriculture-Forest Matrix, Tropical Degrading Agroecosystem, and Temperate High-Input Commodity Agriculture) using hierarchical clustering of the indicator values. Each domain shared a set of interventions for biodiversity-based agriculture and ecological intensification that could also increase food security in the impoverished landscapes. Implementation of interventions differed greatly among the landscapes, e.g. financial capital for new farming practices in the Intensive Agriculture domain vs. developing market value chains in the other domains. This exploratory study suggests that indicators of knowledge systems should receive greater emphasis in the monitoring of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and that inventories of assets at the landscape level can inform adaptive management of agrobiodiversity-based interventions.     

Shocks to fish production: Identification,trends, and consequences

Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system.     

Learning and climate change

Abstract

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.     

Drivers of national climate policy

Patterns of national climate policy performance and their implications for the geopolitics of climate change are examined. An overview of levels of emissions performance across countries is first provided. Substantial changes in emissions trends over time are documented, notably with GHG emissions trajectories, which are shaped less and less by the developed/developing country divide. Various patterns of policy convergence and divergence in the types of policies states implement are then surveyed. Four broad types of explanation that may account for these trends are then explored: (1) variation in the institutional form of country-level governance regimes, (2) patterns of dependence on fossil fuel energy, (3) broad systemic differences among states (specifically in their population densities, carbon intensity, and per capita incomes, and (4) variations in the traditions of economic intervention by states. The article contributes to the growing body of work on comparative climate policy, and provides a first attempt at exploring the comparative politics of instrument choice. The analysis challenges the continued importance of a North–South divide for the future of climate policy, thus reinforcing a sense of the ‘new geopolitics’ of climate change. Some of the implications of the analysis for debates about the form of future international agreement on mitigation policy are also explored.

Policy relevance

The article contributes to the understanding of the variety of institutional conditions under which policy makers develop policy and thus the constraints and opportunities for the design of international agreements under these conditions.     

The integrated socio-perceptual approach: Using ecological mental maps and future imaginaries to understand land use decisions

Rural places are important centers of environmental and social transformation. Landholders are not only affected by socio-environmental changes, but they are influencing futures related to climate change, food security, freshwater, biodiversity, and social and economic development. Much environmental land use work understands individual landholders as rational actors, portrayed through the economic lens of “producer.” These approaches generally focus on present capacities and limitations as the principal factors contributing to land use, and the individual farm as the reference unit for decisions. Our research takes steps to expand conceptualizations of rural landholders as active and knowledgeable in envisioning, managing, and shaping environmental futures. We design and test a new approach using ecological mental maps and future imaginaries to understand land use practices through a case study in the cocoa-producing and Atlantic Forest region of Southern Bahia, Brazil. The integrated socio-perceptual (ISP) approach combines qualitative and quantitative methodologies to honor the depth of landholders’ experiences and perspectives and to allow broader regional relationships and insights to emerge. We demonstrate that the ISP approach—through 49 surveys—has the capacity to capture variation and identify patterns in ecological mental maps and future imaginaries in a population, approximate the relevant spatial scales underlying these factors, and identify relationships between these and land uses. In this context, the types of narratives landholders hold about the region’s future are associated with current forest land use on their properties. We discuss potential applications of the ISP approach for land use study and practice.     

Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications

Climate change will influence yields while sea level rise can inundate producing lands. The research reported investigates the individual and simultaneous effects of these factors on production, trade and consumption of rice the world’s number one food crop. A global rice trade model is utilized to do this. The results indicate that the combination of yield and sea level effects causes a significant reduction in production and an increase in rice prices which may have important policy implications for food security. Global rice production is reduced by 1.60% to 2.73% while global rice price increases by 7.14% to 12.77%. Sea level rise is particularly a risk factor in Bangladesh, Japan, Taiwan, Egypt, Myanmar and Vietnam. In the face of such developments, adaptation may well be desirable and thus an investigation is done over adaptation options of increased technical progress or trade liberalization with the results showing that both can mitigate such damages.     

对IPCC AR6报告中有关农业系统结论的解读

与IPCC第五次评估报告相比,第六次评估报告（AR6）有关农业的评估对象由作物生产系统延伸到粮食供应链系统,气候变化对作物生产不利影响的证据在加强。气候变化改变了作物适宜种植区,使中高纬度及温带地区作物种植界限向高纬度、高海拔地区推移。人为引起的气候变暖阻碍了作物产量的增长,地表O₃浓度增加使作物产量降低,CH₄排放加剧了这种不利影响。气候变化加剧作物病虫草害,极端气候事件高发加剧了粮食不安全,推升了国际粮食价格。适应措施有助于减缓气候变化不利影响,基于自然的适应方案在增强作物生产系统气候恢复力和保障粮食安全方面具有较高潜力。从保障国家粮食安全和重大战略需求出发,AR6报告对我国农业应对气候变化相关工作的启示如下：需要高度重视气候变化背景下作物种植适宜区转变与种植带北移的重要战略价值,合理规划农业生产布局;加强农业气象灾害和病虫害防治体系和能力建设,保障粮食生产稳定性;关注气候变化对国际作物生产和谷物贸易的影响,统筹国内、国际市场粮食资源,保障粮食安全;推进农业温室气体减排与作物生产高效协同,为实现国家减排目标做出贡献。     

气候变化对中国水安全的影响研究

 全球变暖是目前最重要的环境问题之一,水是全球气候变化最直接和最重要的影响领域。全球气候变暖将加速大气环流和水文循环过程,引起水资源量及其空间分布的变化,进而可能导致水资源短缺问题更加突出、水生态环境问题进一步恶化、洪涝灾害威胁更加严重等一系列问题。本文从防洪安全、供水安全、水生态环境安全和水工程安全4个方面分别阐述气候变化对中国水安全的可能影响。     

气候变化对中国水安全的影响研究

全球变暖是目前最重要的环境问题之一,水是全球气候变化最直接和最重要的影响领域。全球气候变暖将加速大气环流和水文循环过程,引起水资源量及其空间分布的变化,进而可能导致水资源短缺问题更加突出、水生态环境问题进一步恶化、洪涝灾害威胁更加严重等一系列问题。本文从防洪安全、供水安全、水生态环境安全和水工程安全4个方面分别阐述气候变化对中国水安全的可能影响。