Do we know each other? Bilateral ties and the location of clean development mechanism projects

This paper examines how bilateral ties between developed (home) countries and developing (host) countries influence the location of Clean Development Mechanism projects (CDMs). With the home-host country pair as the unit of analysis (2,058 country-pairs), we employ a logistic regression model to analyze decisions of home countries in selecting the location for their CDMs. We are most interested in examining how home countries’ familiarity with the host country influences CDM location decisions. The familiarity factors are: (1) colonial history; (2) bilateral trade; and (3) bilateral aid. Using a binary logistical model, we find that that bilateral familiarity factors strongly influence CDM location decisions. Further, with respect to host country characteristics, we find that total carbon dioxide emissions and UNFCCC specific domestic institutions influence CDM location decisions, but not general investment institutions or high carbon intensity of host country economies.     

Do we need to include soil evolution module in models for prediction of future climate change?

Climate change induce increases in precipitation in Northern Europe that may in turn affect soil evolution by increasing the amounts of water flowing through soils. However, there is a general lack of consideration of the impact of climate change on soil evolution. We propose here to use agricultural soil drainage—that also increases the amount of water flowing through soils—as an analogy to climate change. We thus studied the impact of 16 years of agricultural drainage in one cropped plot of the most common type of soils of Northern Europe. To estimate the importance of the soil evolution induced by drainage, we compared it to the long term natural evolution of that soil. The recent increase in water fluxes by agricultural drainage (16 years) has resulted in an increase in the intensity and velocity of the natural pedological processes. The increased amount of water flowing thorough soils due to drainage is of same order of magnitude than that that would be induced by climate change in the next 50–100 years in northern Europe. Our results demonstrated thus that climate change will significantly affect soil evolution. This evolution induces losses of the finest particles involved in organic carbon sequestration and thus has a feedback effect on climate change. Therefore we consider that soil evolution in response to climate change has to be explicitly studied and included in models predicting global climate change.     

Who and what are carbon markets for? Politics and the development of climate policy

Why have carbon markets been rapidly adopted as policy solutions to climate change in the last decade? Perhaps surprisingly, this question has attracted virtually no attention in the large literature on such markets. The standard arguments given for why carbon markets are good ways to respond to climate change do not explain why such markets have flourished as governance mechanisms in relation to climate. Carbon markets have spread and become taken-for-granted because of the potential they give to certain powerful actors (financiers, specifically) to create new cycles of investment, profits and growth. As a consequence, they make possible a political coalition combining financiers with environmentalists. This coalition has considerable potential to legitimize substantial cuts in carbon emissions in the face of continued opposition from other interests. It is the combination of these two elements – the promotion of specific growth sectors and the construction of a political coalition – that constitutes the principal political virtue of carbon markets. In order to demonstrate this claim, the history of emissions trading is traced and the implication of this analysis is explored for the further building of climate governance centred on carbon markets.     

Testing for linear Granger causality from?natural/anthropogenic forcings to global temperature anomalies

In this paper, we analyze the Granger causality from natural or anthropogenic forcings to global temperature anomalies. The lag-augmented Wald test is performed, and its robustness is also evaluated considering bootstrap method. The results show there is no-evidence of Granger causality from natural forcings to global temperature. On the contrary, a detectable Granger causality is found from anthropogenic forcings to global temperature confirming that greenhouse gases have an important role on recent global warming.     

Do people “personally experience” global warming,and if so how,and does it matter?

For most people, the direct and personally observable signals of climate change should be difficult to detect amid the variability of everyday weather. Yet, previous research has shown that some people believe they have personally experienced global warming. Through four related studies, our paper sheds light on what signals of global warming some people believe they are detecting, why, and whether or not it matters. These studies were conducted using population survey and climatic data from a single county in Michigan. Study 1 found that 27% of the county's adult residents felt that they had personally experienced global warming. Study 2 – based on content analysis of people's open-ended responses – found that the most frequently described personal experiences of global warming were changes in seasons (36%), weather (25%), lake levels (24%), animals and plants (20%), and snowfall (19%). Study 3 – based on NOAA climatic data – found that most, but not all, of these detected signals are borne out in the climatic record. Study 4 – using the survey data – found that personal experience of global warming matters in that it predicts perceptions of local risk of global warming, controlling for demographics, political affiliation, and cultural beliefs about national policy outcomes. We conclude that perceived personal experience of global warming appears to heighten people's perception of the risks, likely through some combination of direct experience, vicarious experience (e.g., news media stories), and social construction.     

Land-based adaptation to global change: What drives soil and water conservation in western Africa?

Conservation of land resources is a promising strategy for sustainable agricultural intensification in order to adapt dryland farming systems to climate, market and other stresses. At a local level, factors that drive the adoption of conservation measures operate and interact in specific ways. Linking our knowledge of the local specifications of these drivers to regional and global patterns of vulnerability can significantly enhance our understanding of land-based adaptation to global change. However, the factors that influence the adoption of conservation practices remain actively debated. Therefore, this study presents a meta-analysis of case studies that investigate the adoption of soil and water conservation measures, as an important approach to resource conservation. Synthesising 63 adoption cases in the drylands of western Africa, this meta-analysis reveals a multitude of factors that drive the adoption of soil and water conservation practices. The drivers differ strongly between particular practices and methods of analysis used in the case studies. Contributing to the broader debate on resource conservation, the findings highlight the adoption of soil and water conservation measures as an emergent property of farming systems. They demonstrate the need to better understand the socio-ecological foundation of adoption and the pathways along which adoption evolves in space and time. This study concludes with methodological principles to advance future research on the factors that drive the adoption of soil and water conservation measures as a pre-requisite of improving land-based adaptation efforts.     

Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction?

The next generation of climate-driven, disease prediction models will most likely require a mechanistically based, dynamical framework that parameterizes key processes at a variety of locations. Over the next two decades, consensus climate predictions make it possible to produce forecasts for a number of important infectious diseases that are largely independent of the uncertainty of longer-term emissions scenarios. In particular, the role of climate in the modulation of seasonal disease transmission needs to be unravelled from the complex dynamics resulting from the interaction of transmission with herd immunity and intervention measures that depend upon previous burdens of infection. Progress is also needed to solve the mismatch between climate projections and disease projections at the scale of public health interventions. In the time horizon of seasons to years, early warning systems should benefit from current developments on multi-model ensemble climate prediction systems, particularly in areas where high skill levels of climate models coincide with regions where large epidemics take place. A better understanding of the role of climate extremes on infectious diseases is urgently needed.     

Ten years to prevent catastrophe?: Discourses of climate change and international development in the UK press

The science of climate change is full of uncertainty, but the greater vulnerability of poor countries to the impacts of climate change is one aspect that is widely acknowledged. This paper adapts Dryzek's ‘components’ approach to discourse analysis to explore the media construction of climate change and development in UK ‘quality’ newspapers between 1997 and 2007. Eight discourses are identified from more than 150 articles, based on the entities recognised, assumptions about natural relationships, agents and their motives, rhetorical devices and normative judgements. They show a wide range of opinions regarding the impacts of climate change on development and the appropriate action to be taken. Discourses concerned with likely severe impacts have dominated coverage in the Guardian and the Independent since 1997, and in all four papers since 2006. Previously discourses proposing that climate change was a low development priority had formed the coverage in the Times and the Telegraph. The classification of different discourses allows an inductive, nuanced analysis of the factors influencing representation of climate change and development issues; an analysis which highlights the role of key events, individual actors, newspaper ideology and wider social and political factors. Overall the findings demonstrate media perceptions of a rising sense of an impending catastrophe for the developing world that is defenceless without the help of the West, perpetuating to an extent views of the poor as victims.     

Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

In government we trust? Micro-business adaptation to climate change in four post-colonial and transitional economies of China

Public expectations of government influence private action for managing climate change risks. Institutional neglect or incompetence result in a loss of trust in public institutions, consequently discouraging the public from taking added responsibility for risk management. This has been explained in terms of social contract, but evidence suggests that a politics of distrust can reinforce alternative social drivers of action, rather than displacing action. This is empirically confirmed by the present study, which examines the tendencies for adopting private protective measures across a gradient of institutional trust. Surveys were conducted in four jurisdictions within China that operate under two different political-economic systems, namely, Hong Kong and Macao (liberal market economy), and Zhuhai and Sanya (socialist market economy). Structured interviews were conducted with 569 business operators to explore how their stated adaptation practice is related to institutional trust and social capital. We found that trust predicted action only in Sanya, which is characterized by a high level of public confidence in authorities. In places of lower institutional trust, social capital became a salient and powerful driver of action. The weakening of the social contracts in Hong Kong and Macao turned their people to alternative social mechanisms. We explain the results in terms of the development trajectories, socio-political norms and institutional settings of these jurisdictions. This study provides insights into how adaptation practice can be mediated by the consequences of a change in political leadership, policy, or governance arrangements that alters the relationship of trust.     

Which states will lead a just transition for the Arctic? A DeePeR analysis of global data on Arctic states and formal observer states

A fair and equitable low carbon future depends on a just transition which, in turn, requires leadership. Where the Arctic is concerned, this leadership is currently lacking. To gauge which states are most likely to provide leadership in the global energy transition, a quantitative rank-percentile assessment of 21 Arctic Council members and Observer states was conducted, using measures relevant to the just transition. Data from multiple open-access sources were combined, creating a model to ‘evaluate energy and equity aspects of Distributional, Procedural and Restorative’ justice (DeePeR). Results suggest normative leadership on a just transition for the Arctic comprises international climate contributions in line with carbon emission records and a commitment to both fair and green jobs. Reflections are made on the positive and negative effects of a more involved EU for the just transition agenda in the Arctic.     

Performance and energy costs associated with scaling infrared heater arrays for warming field plots from 1 to 100?m

To study the likely effects of global warming on open-field vegetation, hexagonal arrays of infrared heaters are currently being used for low-stature (<1?m) plants in small (≤3?m) plots. To address larger ecosystem scales, herein we show that excellent uniformity of the warming can be achieved using nested hexagonal and rectangular arrays. Energy costs depend on the overall efficiency (useable infrared energy on the plot per electrical energy in), which varies with the radiometric efficiency (infrared radiation out per electrical energy in) of the individual heaters and with the geometric efficiency (fraction of thermal radiation that falls on useable plot area) associated with the arrangement of the heaters in an array. Overall efficiency would be about 26% at 4?m?s^?1 wind speed for a single hexagonal array over a 3-m-diameter plot and 67% for a 199-hexagon honeycomb array over a 100-m-diameter plot, thereby resulting in an economy of scale.     

Is it time to abolish company car benefits? An analysis of transport behaviour in Germany and implications for climate change

Company cars have received considerable attention because of their partial tax-exemption and the changes in travel behaviour they stimulate, including car model choices, distances driven, and car ownership patterns. This paper is the first to present evidence on actual transport behaviour change, based on mobility and fuel diaries, and comparing a sample of 624 company cars and 9328 private cars in Germany. Analysis confirms that company cars belong to the more heavily motorized car segments (with an average 97?kW, as opposed to 79?kW of private cars), and are driven more than private cars (24,672?km per year, compared to 12,828?km per year for private cars). Company car benefits also increase average household vehicle numbers by 25%. Results show that it is imperative to distinguish company cars of company owners relative to those driven by employees, as negative externalities increase significantly where company cars are used by the latter. Abolishing company car benefits could significantly reduce emissions from passenger road transport and stimulate change in the country’s automotive industries towards a lower-carbon path. As Germany is not currently on track to meet its climate mitigation targets, this would be a timely policy shift.

Key policy insights

• Company car benefits increase transport demand, car ownership, and average vehicle fleet engine power. These effects are particularly relevant for employees.

• Company cars have, in spite of their larger size and greater engine power, a (modestly) better fuel economy than private cars, possibly because they represent more recent and hence more efficient car models.

• A policy focus on vehicle fuel efficiency improvements will fail to reduce the German car fleet’s CO₂ emissions to a sustainable level.

• Abolishing company car benefits could yield a significant reduction in GHG emissions from passenger road transport.

• Company car subsidies are an out-dated mode of support for the fossil-fuel based automotive industry.

     

What information do policy makers need to develop climate adaptation plans for smallholder farmers? The case of Central America and Mexico

Scientific and technical information can increase the ability of policy makers to make strategic decisions. However, climate change policy is often formulated without significant input from science. We examine whether the availability and accessibility of information related to climate change is a major barrier for policy action on climate change adaptation for smallholder farmers. We also investigate whether scientific information related to climate change is available and used in policy making in Central America and Mexico. Our online survey of 105 decision makers indicated that a lack of scientific and technical information hinders policy makers from developing policies to help smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. Specific needs include information on the impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture and the areas that are or will be prone to flooding, droughts or landslides. Information about the location of the farmers who are most vulnerable to climate change, the projected temperature and precipitation in agricultural areas and the expected impacts of climate change on crop yields or animal productivity, is also needed. Despite high interest in having scientific information guide policy making, many respondents indicated that policy makers rarely use this information in adaptation planning. In addition to ensuring that relevant information is available to inform policy making, technical and scientific information must be published in venues that are readily accessible for policy makers, easy to understand, and written in a format that is policy-relevant. It is also critical that scientific articles provide specific recommendations for achieving desired policy outcomes.     

Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500�C2100: 600?years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands

In preparation for the fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the international community is developing new advanced Earth System Models (ESMs) to assess the combined effects of human activities (e.g. land use and fossil fuel emissions) on the carbon-climate system. In addition, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios of the future (2005?C2100) are being provided by four Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) teams to be used as input to the ESMs for future carbon-climate projections (Moss et al. 2010). The diversity of approaches and requirements among IAMs and ESMs for tracking land-use change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates to future projections. Here, a harmonized set of land-use scenarios are presented that smoothly connects historical reconstructions of land use with future projections, in the format required by ESMs. The land-use harmonization strategy estimates fractional land-use patterns and underlying land-use transitions annually for the time period 1500?C2100 at 0.5°?×?0.5° resolution. Inputs include new gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.1 for 1500?C2005, updated estimates of historical national wood harvest and of shifting cultivation, and future information on crop, pasture, and wood harvest from the IAM implementations of the RCPs for the period 2005?C2100. The computational method integrates these multiple data sources, while minimizing differences at the transition between the historical reconstruction ending conditions and IAM initial conditions, and working to preserve the future changes depicted by the IAMs at the grid cell level. This study for the first time harmonizes land-use history data together with future scenario information from multiple IAMs into a single consistent, spatially gridded, set of land-use change scenarios for studies of human impacts on the past, present, and future Earth system.     

Lost in the mix: will the technologies of carbon dioxide capture and storage provide us with a breathing space as we strive to make the transition from fossil fuels to renewables?

This paper explores concepts of carbon lock-in arising from the technologies of CO₂ capture and storage (CCS). We examine the argument that CCS reduces carbon lock-in and the calls for a CCS ‘mandate’ and emission performance standards. We analyse the pros- and cons- of a low-carbon fossil fuel lock-in, arguing that lock-in per se is not the problem; it is rather the depth of lock-in which creates problems because deeper lock-in reduces flexibility and increases the ‘error cost’ (i.e. the cost of a decision which turns out to be based on incorrect understanding) and should be avoided. A set of technical and institutional indicators for measuring the flexibility of different technologies is then presented and applied to three technologies: a landfill gas power generator, a conventional nuclear power plant and a CCS plant under development in California. We conclude that these indicators are a useful way forward in assessing individual projects and that public authorities and other stakeholders might wish to employ some version of these indicators in their deliberations on the role of CCS.     

Reply to the Comment by Mauder on “How Well Can We Measure the Vertical Wind Speed? Implications for Fluxes of Energy and Mass”

In Kochendorfer et al. (Boundary-Layer Meteorol 145:383–398, 2012, hereafter K2012) the vertical wind speed $(w)$ measured by a non-orthogonal three-dimensional sonic anemometer was shown to be underestimated by $\approx $ 12 %. Turbulent statistics and eddy-covariance fluxes estimated using $w$ were also affected by this underestimate in $w$ . Methodologies used in K2012 are clarified here in response to Mauder’s comment. In addition, further analysis of the K2012 study is presented to help address questions raised in the comment. Specific responses are accompanied with examples of time series, calculated correlation coefficients, and additional explanation of the K2012 methods and assumptions. The discussion and analysis included in the comment and in this response do not affect the validity of the methods or conclusions presented in K2012.