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1.
年际气候变率的数值模拟 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
本文利用IAP GCM 20年的模式输出结果,计算了海平面气压、表面气温和降水的年际气候变率,并与观测资料作了对比分析,以考察模式模拟年际变率的能力。结果表明,模式成功地再现了观测变率地理分布的基本特征,这说明大气内部动力-物理相互作用过程对年际变率有重要影响,而模拟值的偏低则显示了模式中未包括的某些外界强迫因子如海温和海冰年际变化的潜在作用。 相似文献
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Part of the uncertainty in predictions by climate models results fromlimited knowledge of the stability of the thermohaline circulation ofthe ocean. Here we provide estimates of the response of pre-industrial surface climatevariables should the thermohalinecirculation in the Atlantic Ocean collapse. For this we have usedHadCM3, an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model that is run without fluxadjustments. In this model a temporary collapse was forced by applying a strong initial freshening to the top layers of the NorthAtlantic. In the first five decades after the collapse surface air temperatureresponse is dominated by cooling of much of the NorthernHemisphere (locally up to 8 °C, 1–2 °C on average) and weakwarming of theSouthern Hemisphere (locally up to 1 °C, 0.2 °C onaverage). Response is strongest around the North Atlantic but significant changesoccur over the entire globe and highlight rapidteleconnections.Precipitation is reduced over large parts of the Northern Hemisphere.A southward shift of the IntertropicalConvergence Zone over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific createschanges in precipitation that are particularly large in South America andAfrica. Colder and drier conditions in much of the Northern Hemisphere reducesoil moisture and net primary productivity of the terrestrial vegetation. Thisis only partlycompensated by more productivity in the Southern Hemisphere.The total global net primary productivity by the vegetation decreases by5%. It should be noted, however, that in this version of the model thevegetation distribution cannotchange, and atmospheric carbon levels are also fixed. After about 100 yearsthe model's thermohaline circulation has largelyrecovered, and most climatic anomalies disappear. 相似文献
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分析双季稻抛秧栽培气候优势及特点的基础上,根据玉林市双季稻生育期的气候规律和栽培特性,按照80%保证率能有效避免早稻抛栽期的低温、春旱和晚稻寒露风等气象灾害的影响为指标,确定玉林市早、晚稻的最佳播种期和抛栽期,并介绍近几年开展双季稻播种期和抛栽期决策服务时的一些体会。 相似文献
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福建惠安女传统服饰文化是国家非物质文化遗产,也是当地极具特色的旅游资源.从服装气候角度,用微气候分析方法,通过研究气候要素与着装厚度之间的定量关系,揭示惠安女服饰文化所蕴含的丰富内涵.独特的气候条件成就奇特的文化,惠安女服饰文化是当地人民适应环境的智慧和坚韧勤劳优良品性的产物,其魅力是奇异外观美及蕴涵品行的完美结合,二... 相似文献
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通过分析不同气候年型温度、光照、降水等气象因子对棉花发育期及产量因素的影响,得出在棉花关键发育期和产量因素形成期,温度条件对棉花产量起着决定性的作用。 相似文献
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以河北省承德市围场县规划建设的滑雪场为例,采用承德地区7个气象站积雪观测资料和围场气象站1951—2011年地面观测资料,应用数理统计方法,分析了积雪、气温、风、降水和灾害天气(包括大雾、沙尘、雷暴和冰雹)等气象要素年代际变化特征,评估了围场滑雪场选址的气候适宜性、可持续发展性和气候风险性。结果表明,围场是承德区域内滑雪场建设的首选地址,该地积雪主要出现在11月至次年3月,其中11月和12月为滑雪场的最佳运营期;6—8月风效指数达到"舒适"的日数月均在20天以上,益于滑雪淡季开展其他旅游项目。此外,围场地区发生雪崩的可能性极低,灾害性天气,尤其是雷暴和冰雹,频发于滑雪旅游淡季,因此在滑雪场投入运营之后应加强滑雪淡季灾害性天气的预警和防御工作。为保证该地区滑雪场的可持续性发展,建议滑雪场建设规模不易过大,且严格限制滑雪场数量。 相似文献
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中国区域陆面覆盖变化的气候效应模拟研究 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
基于MODIS和CLCV陆面覆盖资料,利用区域气候模式RegCM4分别进行两组24年(1978-2001年)的数值模拟试验,研究中国区域陆面覆盖变化对区域气候的影响。结果表明,以荒漠化和植被退化为主要特征的陆面覆盖变化通过改变陆面能量、水分平衡与大尺度环流进而对气候要素产生重要影响。夏季,中国南方地区普遍降温,季风边缘区及藏北高原气温升高,降水减少;季风边缘区与西北地区气温年际波动加剧;内蒙古中东部地区西南风增强,进而水汽输送增强,一定程度上增加了该地区降水。冬季,中国东部地区偏北气流增强,更多干燥冷空气南下,使得黄河以南地区降水减少、气温降低。 相似文献
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I. D. Rostov E. V. Dmitrieva N. I. Rudykh A. A. Vorontsov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2020,45(3):169-178
Observational data from the Roshydromet
hydrometeorological stations for 1978–2017, global meteorological
network, and objective analysis and reanalysis (NOAA) are used to study
the interannual variability of sea surface temperature and air
temperature in the coastal and marine areas of the Okhotsk, Japan,
Yellow, East China, and South China seas at the modern stage of the
warming. Based on the EOF, cluster, and correlation analysis, the
spatiotemporal pattern of temperature variations is analyzed and the
zoning of sea areas according to the features of modern climate change
is performed. The possible cause-and-effect relationships between these
changes and the variations in wind components and climate indices are
investigated. The studies revealed, specified, and quantified the modern
trends and regional features of interannual variability of thermal
conditions in the distinguished areas. 相似文献
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从天峨县的气候条件出发,对荔枝生产的可行性进行综合分析,得出天峨县适宜引种荔枝区域,并指出只宜引种中、迟熟品种才能避免不利气候影响,获得高产。 相似文献
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A Simulation Study of the Mesoscale Convective Systems Associated with a Meiyu Frontal Heavy Rain Event 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
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In this study, evolution of the mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) within a Meiyu front during a particularly heavy rainfall event on 22 June 1999 in East China was simulated by using a nonhydrostatic numerical model ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System). Investigations were conducted with emphasis on the impact of the interaction among multi-scale weather systems (MWSs) on the development of MCSs in the Meiyu frontal environment. For this case, the development of MCSs experienced three different stages. (1) The convections associated with MCSs were firstly triggered by the eastward-moving Southwest Vortex (SWV) from the Sichuan Basin, accompanying the intensification of the upper-level jet (ULJ) and the low-level jet (LLJ) that were approaching the Meiyu front. (2) Next, a low-level shear line (LSL) formed, which strengthened and organized the MCSs after the SWV decayed. Meanwhile, the ULJ and LLJ enhanced and produced favorable conditions for the MCSs development. (3) Finally, as the MCSs got intensified, a mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), a mesoscale LLJ and a mesoscale ULJ were established. Then a coupled-development of MWSs was achieved through the vertical frontal circulations, which further enhanced the MCV and resulted in the heavy rainfall. This is a new physical mechanism for the formation of Meiyu heavy rainfall related to the SWV during the warm season in East China. In the three stages of the heavy rainfall, the vertical frontal circulations exhibited distinguished structures and played a dynamic role, and they enhanced the interaction among the MWSs. A further examination on the formation and evolution of the MCV showed that the MCV was mainly caused by the latent heat release of the MCSs, and the positive feedback between the MCSs and MCV was a key characteristic of the scale interaction in this case. 相似文献
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鱼台县种植甜樱桃的气候条件分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
依据甜樱桃的生物学特性,分析了鱼台县19762005年30 a气候资料,结果表明:甜樱桃在鱼台生长发育关键期温度适宜、果实发育关键期光照充足、花芽分化期水分充足,鱼台县的气候条件适宜种植甜樱桃.需注意的是:花期霜冻、果实发育期干旱、生长发育关键期大风的不利因素,并提出相应建议,以达到充分利用好气候资源,提高甜樱桃产量和质量的目的. 相似文献
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Yonghui Yang Masataka Watanabe Zhiping Wang Yasuo Sakura Changyuan Tang 《Climatic change》2003,57(1-2):163-183
The WAVES model was used to simulate the effect of global warming on soil moisture on the semi-arid Taihang Mountain in China. Parameters of the WAVES model were first adjusted according to soil moisture data from a field global warming experiment. Then, the reliability of WAVES in predicting soil moisture changes induced by climatic change was confirmed by comparing the simulated and observed soil moisture values under different climatic conditions and plant growth rates of another field treatment. Next, 10 climate change scenarios incorporating increases in temperature and changes in precipitation were designed. When a simulation was conducted using the leaf area index (LAI) growth pattern from a field experiment under the present climatic conditions, the results suggested that the combination of temperature increase and precipitation decrease would greatly decrease soil water content throughout the entire simulation period. On the other hand, only when precipitation increased by 20% and temperatureincreased by 2 °C, the effect of precipitation increase on soil moisture was obviously positive. Although soil moisture conditions in the T2P1 (temperature increase by 2 °C and precipitation increase by 10%) and T4P2 (temperature increase by 4 °C and precipitation increase by 20%) scenarios were slightly better during the rainy season and notmuch changed before the rainy season, the positive effect of 10%precipitation increase on soil moisture was totally offset by moisture decrease caused bya 4 °C temperature increase in the T4P1 scenario. At the same time, the trends of soil-moisture change were highly coincident with predicted changes in productivity. Finally, the predicted LAI values from other studies were combined with the climatic change scenarios and used in the simulation. The results showed that changes in LAI alleviated, at least to some extent, the effects of temperature and precipitation changes on soil moisture. 相似文献
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Summary An investigation of the main features of large-scale synoptic patterns over Europe and the adjacent areas for extreme winter
periods during 1980–1995 over the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) is performed. The NASA reanalysis data set is used to investigate
composite sea level pressure (SLP), geopotential height of the 500 hPa surface (H-500) and precipitation–wet, normal and dry
patterns for each month during the period October–March. It is found that the wet and dry cool seasons in the EM are associated
with distinct SLP and H-500 anomaly patterns over Europe and the adjacent regions. During the dry spells large-scale positive
SLP/H-500 anomaly areas prevail over Eastern Europe. A negative SLP anomaly is normally found during these periods over southwestern
and Western Europe. During the wet cool seasons in the EM there are mainly negative SLP/H-500 anomaly areas over Eastern Europe
to the north east of the EM. Positive SLP/H-500 anomalies are found over Western Europe.
During wet months a trough zone between the Siberian and the Azorean Highs is positioned over the eastern part of the Mediterranean.
During dry months the Siberian anticyclone is more intensive and the zone with low surface pressure is displaced to the central
part of the northern Mediterranean.
Received May 26, 1999 Revised August 26, 1999 相似文献
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京津塘高速公路雾气候特征与气象条件分析 总被引:5,自引:2,他引:5
利用1954-2002年的北京、天津和塘沽3站的雾日、雾发生时间以及气象观测资料,对京津塘高速公路沿线雾的气候特征以及气象条件进行了分析.结果发现,京津塘沿线多年平均雾日在15~19天.北京、天津两站的雾日年际变化一致.但在多年雾日变化上北京雾日数略呈逐年下降趋势,而天津、塘沽则略呈上升趋势.京津塘公路沿线雾多在凌晨到日出前后生成,在日出后逐渐消失.雾持续时间随时间变化呈指数递减.地面温度、相对湿度、风速等气象要素对京津塘高速公路沿线雾的预报具有较好的指示意义.地面温度在-5~5℃范围内、风速在0~4m·s-1和相对湿度在90%~100%范围里,雾极易发生. 相似文献
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根据中国气象局提供的气候资料,对我国石榴产区的气候条件及其气候适应性进行了分析。结果表明,我国适宜栽种石榴的区域广阔,生产潜力很大,温带南部和亚热带北部的半湿半干区是石榴适宜种植区;对我国石榴集中产区的北部和西部而言,加强冻害防御、完善灌排设施和强化裂果预防措施是提高石榴经济产量的重要途径;对石榴品种进行合理布局与搭配,可以延长其市场供应时间。 相似文献