由GMS卫星资料获取我国夏季地表辐射收支

地表辐射收支是一个重要的基本辐射参数，本文导得卫星可见光和红外波段测值与地表辐射收支的基本关系，据此利用GMS静止气象卫星可见光和红外通道数值化资料和地面辐射收支观测资料，建立了几个由卫星资料估计地面辐射收支的模式，选择效果最佳的一种模式，通过内插方法求取全国辐射收支分布，回归效果与实测结果比较表明，方法有实际应用价值。     

Construction and assessment of a logistic regression model applied to short-term forecasting of thunderstorms in León (Spain)

Forecasting thunderstorms is one of the most difficult tasks in weather prediction due to the scarce knowledge on how to characterise the mechanisms taking part in the formation of thunderstorms. New tools based upon the objective recognition of appropriate conceptual models have been developed in the last years. A good example of this are the statistical models, based on variables that characterise the preconvective atmospheric conditions.This paper presents the results obtained by applying a short-term forecast model to thunderstorms during the summer periods in León (Spain). This model makes use of the logistic function as a binary forecasting technique determining storm/no storm. The logistic function used was a combination of 15 previously selected meteorological variables. The model has been constructed with the data collected on 152 occasions, and it has been verified on 77 other occasions.The skill scores obtained show that the use of statistical models combining the data, provided by variables characterizing the preconvective conditions and the triggering mechanisms, represent an important step in the difficult task of short-term thunderstorm forecasting.     

A closure to derive a three-dimensional well-mixed trajectory-model for non-Gaussian, inhomogeneous turbulence

A three-dimensional Lagrangian stochastic (LS) model to evaluate pollutant dispersion in the atmospheric boundary layer has been developed. The model satisfies the well-mixed criterion of Thomson and allows for inhomogeneous, skew turbulence. Making use of the spherical reference frame, one of the possible solutions has been obtained. A skewed joint probability density function (PDF), which reproduces the given velocity moments (means, variances, skewness and covariances), has been built-up by a linear combination of eight Gaussian PDFs. In order to verify consistency with the well-mixed criterion, the long term results have been compared with the theoretical behaviour. A comparison between our model and Thomson's published algorithms was also carried out. By comparing wind-tunnel data and numerical predictions, a further validation of our LS model has been obtained. From an analysis of the numerical results, we can state that our model is able to evaluate dispersion in the case of complex flows where the application of previous models is unsuccessful.     

陕西渭北东部干旱遥感监测模型研究

利用研究区域2001年NOAA-16卫星遥感资料和有关气象资料，根据作物生长发育季节，使用逐步回归的统计方法进行因子筛选，用选出的因子建立研究区域不同季节干旱遥感监测模型。用建立的模型对2002年该区春季干旱进行监测，结果表明：模型土壤湿度监测结果与地面观测结果较为一致，模型对该区干旱具有较好的监测能力。     

Monthly precipitation mapping of the Iberian Peninsula using spatial interpolation tools implemented in a Geographic Information System

Summary In this study, spatial interpolation techniques have been applied to develop an objective climatic cartography of precipitation in the Iberian Peninsula (583,551 km²). The resulting maps have a 200 m spatial resolution and a monthly temporal resolution. Multiple regression, combined with a residual correction method, has been used to interpolate the observed data collected from the meteorological stations. This method is attractive as it takes into account geographic information (independent variables) to interpolate the climatic data (dependent variable). Several models have been developed using different independent variables, applying several interpolation techniques and grouping the observed data into different subsets (drainage basin models) or into a single set (global model). Each map is provided with its associated accuracy, which is obtained through a simple regression between independent observed data and predicted values. This validation has shown that the most accurate results are obtained when using the global model with multiple regression mixed with the splines interpolation of the residuals. In this optimum case, the average R ² (mean of all the months) is 0.85. The entire process has been implemented in a GIS (Geographic Information System) which has greatly facilitated the filtering, querying, mapping and distributing of the final cartography.     

湍流高阶矩模式中的参数研究

该文为高阶矩湍流方程组的二阶矩闭合方案提供了参数组选择。此参数组是用近地层实测资料结合湍流方程二阶矩闭合方案推算出的。然后，将其与Mellor等人在实验室所得的参数组分别代入湍流二阶矩闭合方程组拟合，得动量(ΦM(ξ))、热量(ΦH(ξ))与稳定度(ξ)的二组关系曲线，可见此二组曲线几乎重合，且与Businger野外近地层实测结果符合较好。拟合的垂直速度方差((W*2)1/2(ξ))、温度方差((θ*2)1/2(ξ))与ξ的二组关系曲线相对于UTAH资料，所得曲线偏差比Mellor曲线偏差小得多，而相对于KANSAS资料，所得曲线偏差稍大于Mellor曲线。     

坡面散射辐射的分布特征及其计算模式

本文应用安装在经纬仪上的天空辐射表所观测的坡面散射辐射资料,对散射辐射的各向异性问题作了较为详尽的分析。揭示出坡面散射辐射随坡向、坡度变化的基本规律。文中还对前人所提出的计算坡面散射辐射的各种模式进行了检验、评述。最终提出一种通用性较强的坡面散射辐射通量密度的计算模式。其物理意义和计算精度都较国外同类模式优越。     

The Koorin nocturnal low-level jet

It has been long known by Australian meteorologists that a nocturnal jet is a frequent feature of the low-level wind profile at Daly Waters in the Northern Territory of Australia. The Koorin Expedition during the southern winter of 1974 obtained data on wind and temperature profiles in the boundary layer which form an ideal base for the study of this phenomenon. In this paper, a simple model of the jet is described and the results of the model are compared with observations. The model is essentially a development of the pioneering work of Blackadar, who proposed that a low-level jet could develop as an inertial oscillation. The observations do show some of the features of the model.     

局地废气排放污染影响的实验模拟

本文给出了一项在南京大学NJU环境风洞中实施的实验模拟研究。试验模拟一座位于城市街区的排放塔的废气排放，通过流场测量，放烟显示和示踪气体扩散试验，分析气流分布与污染物浓度分布，得出对局地环境影响的一些结论。文中还以模拟扩散试验资料为实验基础，建立修正的扩散模式，探讨污染物浓度预测的可靠途径。研究结果表明，风洞流体模拟手段是有成效且实用的。     

Incorporation of planetary boundary-layer processes into numerical forecasting models

A study has been made of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), the heat flux, and momentum flux using Clarke's Wangara data for a period of two days and two nights, 33/34–34/35. The observed Wangara data are considered as being an output of the first two internal levels of a general circulation model, at 1000 and 2000 m height. A time-dependent equation has been used to forecast, explicitly, the PBLH for both convectively unstable and stable periods. A comparison is made between observed and computed values whenever possible. In the unstable case, the Deardorff model (1974) has been used for the prediction of the unstable PBLH. Part of the stable case study involved a formulation of a time-dependent model for the prediction of the stable PBLH. The solution obtained from the model compared favourably with the results of a model suggested by Khakimov. Contribution number 382.     

Incorporation of Planetary Boundary-Layer Processes into Numerical Forecasting Models

A study has been made of the evolution of the planetary boundary layer height (PBLH), the heat flux, and momentum flux using Clarke’s Wangara data for a period of two days and two nights, 33/34-34/35. The observed Wangara data are considered as being an output of the first two internal levels of a general circulation model, at 1000 and 2000 m height. A time-dependent equation has been used to forecast, explicitly, the PBLH for both convectively unstable and stable periods. A comparison is made between observed and computed values whenever possible. In the unstable case, the Deardorff model (1974) has been used for the prediction of the unstable PBLH. Part of the stable case study involved a formulation of a time-dependent model for the prediction of the stable PBLH. The solution obtained from the model compared favourably with the results of a model suggested by Khakimov.     

北半球七层初始方程谱模式在制作有限区数值预报中的应用

本文提出了一种以北半球七层初始方程谱模式为基本模型的有限区加密方法。这个方法利用谱模式的特点对初始场展开和时间积分中的非线性项计算增加了一些处理，使所选有限区范围内（50°—140°E，20°—60°N）的分辨率有所提高，使模式能在制作出北半球较低分辨率（5°×5°）预报的同时，还能制作出有限区较高分辨率（2.5°×2.5°）的预报。用ECMWF分析资料进行了24小时和48小时预报对比试验，得到了较好的结果。     

Lagrangian statistical simulation of the turbulent motion of heavy particles

A Lagrangian stochastic model for the motion of heavy particles has been developed by coupling a stochastic model for the motion of fluid elements to the Stokes equations of motion of a particle in a turbulent flow. The effects of crossing trajectories and continuity are incorporated by generalising Csanady's (1963) ideas developed for stationary homogeneous turbulence; effects of turbulence inhomogeneity and nonstationarity are embodied in the stochastic model for the fluid motion.The model has been used particularly to examine the effects of turbulence nonstationarity through simulations of the dispersion of heavy particles in the decaying homogeneous turbulence which is obtained by Taylor-transforming grid turbulence. Significant differences from the stationary case occur, mainly as a result of the growth of the turbulent time scale with time.The importance of the source location in influencing both passive scalar and particle dispersion in grid turbulence is highlighted by the model and can be simply accounted for by nondimensionalisation using the r.m.s. turbulence velocity at the source and the mean travel time from the grid to the source as velocity and time scales, respectively. Reconciliation of the three different experiments of Snyder and Lumley (1971), Wells and Stock (1983) and Ferguson (1986) reporting heavy particle flow and dispersion statistics in wind tunnel grid turbulence has been attempted using this nondimensionalisation. A good correspondence between the various data sets was not obtained because the source in the Wells and Stock, and Ferguson experiments was located at the grid where the self-similar development of the turbulence which underlies the scaling is not appropriate.The model matches the data for the heaviest particles used by Snyder and Lumley reasonably well. For very light particles, it correctly reverts to the passive scalar limit, while the experimental data in general do not properly approach this limit.     

Identification of motion parameters from spatio-temporal atmospheric temperature patterns

In near-calm conditions it is difficult to make direct measurements of atmospheric advection reliably and cheaply, particularly at many points over a large area. An alternative indirect method is examined using time-series measurements of atmospheric temperature (or any other convenient conserved field variable) at points on a spatial grid.System identification methodology is applied to analyze atmospheric temperature data obtained in such near-calm conditions during an experiment with a low-flying helicopter. A three-parameter numerical model of atmospheric advection has been identified in the temperature data, the advection parameters being an eddy diffusion coefficient and horizontal components of the wind velocity. It has been demonstrated by analysis of all the assumptions, and using simulated data, that in this case the standard least-square procedure can be applied to recover sensible parameter estimates, even though the model is of the error-in-variables type and parameters appear to change abruptly at certain moments of time (but by a reasonably small amount). The parameter estimates have been validated against independent data.     

大气数据同化方法的研究与应用进展

简要介绍了大气数据同化的基本思想与方法，阐述了松弛逼近法、Kalman滤波和变分约束法三种大气数据同化方法研究状况和应用进展情况。     

Structure of mean winds and turbulence in the planetary boundary layer over rural terrain

A detailed analysis has been carried out of the temporal and spatial structure of mean winds and turbulence in the neutrally-stable planetary boundary layer over typically rural terrain. The data were obtained from a horizontal array of tower-mounted propeller anemometers (z = 11 m) during a five-hour period for which the mean wind direction was virtually perpendicular to the main span of the array. Various turbulence characteristics have been obtained for all three components of velocity and have been compared with idealized models for such a flow and with some of the other available atmospheric results.Considerable tower-to-tower and block-to-block variability has been observed in many of the measured results, particularly in those for the horizontal-component integral scales. Surface shear stress, roughness length and turbulence intensities were in good agreement with expected values for such a site. Power spectra for all components displayed significantly more energy at middle and lower frequencies than that observed by Kaimal et al. (1972) over flat, relatively featureless terrain. This is felt to be a result of the generally rougher gross features of the terrain in the present case and has led to the development of a modified version of the Kaimal-spectral model which fits the observed data better than either the original Kaimal model or the von Kármán model. It is suggested that it may in future be possible to represent power spectra over a wide range of terrain types by using such a modified spectral model.Integral scales of turbulence were calculated by three different techniques and in most cases displayed a strong dependence on the technique used. Averaged values of scale showed reasonable agreement with most of the available atmospheric data and with the values suggested by ESDU (1975). The anticipated elongation of turbulent eddies in the longitudinal direction was confirmed for all three velocity components, although it was found to be not as large as some other observations.     

HUBEX期间暴雨模拟研究

利用中尺度数值预报模式MM4和淮河流域能量与水循环试验(HUBEX)外场观测资料,对1998和1999两年HUBEX期间的暴雨进行数值模拟.同时,将处理后的云图资料输入到MM4中,改变水汽场条件进行数值模拟,作为敏感试验,并且与不用云图资料的控制试验作比较.两种模拟结果与地面试验区的雨量资料对比分析表明,MM4对夏季淮河流域的强降水有较好的预报能力.     

复杂下垫面地域边界层结构的三维细网格数值模拟

建立了一个可供复杂下垫面地域使用的非静力的三维细网格边界层模式，就复杂下垫面条件下的边界层结构和湍流特征作了以实例为对照的数值模拟试验，模式采用能量闭合方案，舍弃了静力近似。以实测资料为初台输入，同时还做了一些数值试验，分别获得了采用静力与非静力模式和不同闭合方案对ＰＢＬ模型的结果。     

云天地表总辐射和净辐射瞬时值的计算方法

为减少计算机时,满足实时预报要求,全球数值预报模式中的辐射计算频率通常设定为三小时。这样处理会大大减少计算量,但也同时导致较大辐射日变化偏差,并影响模式对地面能量平衡,对流及降水的模拟。为改进这一缺陷,我们开发了一种辐射快速计算方案,可用于计算瞬时地面太阳总辐射和净辐射,使到达地面的太阳辐射计算可与模式积分同步进行,从而改善地面太阳辐射日变化模拟。本文介绍云天的计算方法。该方案所用的输入变量均为预报模式或卫星观测所能提供的量。结果表明：该方案既可用于数值预报模式也可利用观测资料独立计算地面太阳辐射。经与美国能源部大气辐射观测资料检验,该方案的精度很高,地面总辐射瞬时值的平均计算误差小于7%。     

长江中下游中尺度云团演变过程的数值模拟

本文用中尺度五层原始方程模式，模拟了长江中下游中尺度云团的生成、强盛和减弱。结果表明，由这个模式，用实测大尺度资料，可以模拟出伴有暴雨的云团演变过程。此外，对于原模式作了一些改动，加进了地形作用。与无地形的数值试验相比，地形作用有利于在长江中下游形成一条近于东西方向的切变线，对系统的发展有促进作用。