Indices of El Nino and El Nino Modoki： An Improved El Nino Modoki Index

In recent years, El Nino Modoki (pseudo-El Nino) has been distinguished as a unique large-scale ocean warming phenomenon happening in the central tropical Pacific that is quite different from the traditional El Nino. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis is used to successfully separate El Nino and El Nino Modoki. The abilities of the NINO3 index, NINO3.4 index, NINO1+2 index and NINO4 index in characterizing the El Nino are explored in detail. It is suggested that the NINO3 index is comparatively optimal to monitor the El Nino among the four NINO indices, since other NINO indices either cannot well distinguish El Nino and El Nino Modoki signals or are easily disturbed by El Nino Modoki signals. Further, an improved El Nino Modoki index (IEMI) is introduced to better represent the El Nino Modoki that is captured by the second leading EOF mode of monthly tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). The IEMI is an improvement of the El Nino Modoki index (EMI) through adjusting the inappropriate weight coefficients of the three boxes of EMI, and it effectively overcomes the lack of EMI in monitoring the two historical El Nino Modoki events and also avoids the possible risk of EMI in excluding the interference of El Nino signal, indicating the realistic and potential advantages.     

Indices of El Nio and El Nio Modoki:An Improved El Nio Modoki Index

In recent years, El Nio Modoki (a type of pseudo-El Nio) has been distinguished as a unique large-scale ocean warming phenomenon happening in the central tropical Pacific that is quite different from the traditional El Nio. In this study, EOF analysis was used to successfully separate El Nio and El Nio Modoki. The abilities of the NINO3 index, NINO3.4 index, NINO1+2 index and NINO4 index in characterizing El Nio were explored in detail. The resulting suggestion was that, comparatively, NINO3 is the op...     

Effects of El Ni?o Modoki on winter precipitation in Korea

This study compares the impacts of El Ni?o Modoki and El Ni?o on precipitation over Korea during the boreal winters from 1954 to 2009. Precipitation in Korea tends to be equal to or greater than the normal level during an El Ni?o Modoki winter, whereas there is no significant change during an El Ni?o winter. Greater than normal precipitation during El Ni?o Modoki was also found over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River, China and much of southern Japan. The latitudes of these regions are 5–10° further north than in southern China, where precipitation increases during El Ni?o. The following two anomalous atmospheric circulations were found to be causes that led to different precipitation distributions over East Asia. First, an atmospheric wave train in the lower troposphere, which propagated from the central tropical Pacific (cyclonic) through the southern Philippine Sea (anticyclonic) to East Asia (cyclonic), reached the southern China and northern Philippine Sea during El Ni?o, whereas it reached Korea and southern Japan during El Ni?o Modoki. Second, an anomalous local meridional circulation, which consists of air sinking in the tropics, flowing poleward in the lower troposphere, and rising in the subtropics, developed between the southern Philippine Sea and northern Philippine Sea during El Ni?o. During El Ni?o Modoki, however, this circulation expanded further to the north and was formed between the southern Philippine Sea and regions of Korea and southern Japan.     

How well do current climate models simulate two types of El Nino?

In this study, we evaluate the fidelity of current climate models in simulating the two types of El Nino events using the pre-industrial output in CMIP3 archives. It is shown that a few climate models simulate the two types of El Nino events to some extent, while most of the models have serious systematic problems in simulating distinctive patterns of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation anomaly associated with the two types of El Nino; that is, they tend to simulate a single type of El Nino. It is shown that the ability of climate models in simulating the two types of El Nino is related to the sensitivity of the atmospheric responses to the SST anomaly patterns. Models whose convective location is shifted to the east (west) as the SST anomaly center moves to the east (west) tends to simulate the two types of El Nino events successfully. On the other hand, models whose location of convective anomaly is confined over the western or central Pacific tends to simulate only the single type of El Nino event. It is also shown that the confinement of the convective anomaly over the western or central Pacific is closely linked to the dry bias and the associated cold bias over the eastern Pacific. That is, because positive El Nino SST anomalies over the eastern Pacific cannot increase local convection effectively when the total SSTs are still too cold due to a cold bias. This implies that the realistic simulation of climatology, especially over the equatorial eastern Pacific, is essential to the successful simulation of the two types of El Nino.     

Anomalous climatic conditions associated with the El Ni?o Modoki during boreal winter of 2009

The winter months from December 2009 to February 2010 witnessed extreme conditions affecting lives of millions of people around the globe. During this winter, the El Ni?o Modoki in the tropical Pacific was a dominant climatic mode. In this study, exclusive impacts of the El Ni?o Modoki are evaluated with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model. Sensitivity experiments are conducted by selectively specifying anomalies of the observed sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific. Observed data are also used in the diagnostics to trace the source of forced Rossby waves. Both the observational results and the model simulated results show that the heating associated with the El Ni?o Modoki in the central tropical Pacific accounted for most of the anomalous conditions observed over southern parts of North America, Europe and over most countries in the Southern Hemisphere viz. Uruguay. Unlike those, the model-simulated results suggest that the anomalously high precipitation observed over Australia and Florida might be associated with the narrow eastern Pacific heating observed during the season.     

Meridional Wind Stress Anomalies over Tropical Pacific and the Onset of El Nino. Part Ⅰ: Data Analysis

对热带太平洋海表经向风应力异常与EI Nino事件之间的关系进行了诊断分析。结果表明，超前的经向风应力距平场与NINO3区(150°-90°W，5°S-5°N)的海面温度异常(SSTA)有显著的超前相关，这种相关性在超前6个月甚至更早一些就有显示。利用奇异值分解方法分析超前的经向风应力距平场与太平洋海表温度异常场之间的耦合模，结果表明对应于赤道中东太平洋的海面温度异常升高，大气风应力场在超前6个月甚至更早的时候，在赤道中东太平洋表现为辐合的经向异常风应力场，即赤道以北为北风异常应力，赤道以南为南风异常应力。这种耦合模的时间系数与NINO3 SSTA指数所表示的El Nino事件有很好的对应关系，表明这种耦合模反映的正是超前的经向风应力异常与El Nino事件所对应的海表温度异常之间的相关模态。通过与热带西太平洋纬向风应力异常的比较，赤道中东太平洋辐合的经向风应力异常与El Nino事件发生的同样具有重要的联系。     

Distinctive MJO Activity during the Boreal Winter of the 2015/16 Super El Nino in Comparison with Other Super El Nino Events

Many previous studies have demonstrated that the boreal winters of super El Nino events are usually accompanied by severely suppressed Madden-Julian oscillation(MJO) activity over the western Pacific due to strong descending motion associated with a weakened Walker Circulation. However, the boreal winter of the 2015/16 super El Nino event is concurrent with enhanced MJO activity over the western Pacific despite its sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)magnitude over the Nino 3.4 region being comparable to the SSTA magnitudes of the two former super El Nino events(i.e.,1982/83 and 1997/98). This study suggests that the MJO enhanced over western Pacific during the 2015/16 super El Nino event is mainly related to its distinctive SSTA structure and associated background thermodynamic conditions. In comparison with the previous super El Nino events, the warming SSTA center of the 2015/16 super El Nino is located further westward, and a strong cold SSTA is not detected in the western Pacific. Accordingly, the low-level moisture and air temperature(as well as the moist static energy, MSE) tend to increase in the central-western Pacific. In contrast, the low-level moisture and MSE show negative anomalies over the western Pacific during the previous super El Nino events.As the MJO-related horizontal wind anomalies contribute to the further westward warm SST-induced positive moisture and MSE anomalies over the western tropical Pacific in the boreal winter of 2015/16, stronger moisture convergence and MSE advection are generated over the western Pacific and lead to the enhancement of MJO convection.     

Anomalous winter climate conditions in the Pacific rim during recent El Niño Modoki and El Niño events

Present work compares impacts of El Niño Modoki and El Niño on anomalous climate in the Pacific rim during boreal winters of 1979–2005. El Niño Modoki (El Niño) is associated with tripole (dipole) patterns in anomalies of sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and upper-level divergent wind in the tropical Pacific, which are related to multiple “boomerangs” of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the Pacific. Zonal and meridional extents of those “boomerangs” reflect their independent influences, which are seen from lower latitudes in the west to higher latitudes in the east. In the central Pacific, more moisture is transported from the tropics to higher latitudes during El Niño Modoki owing to displacement of the wet “boomerang” arms more poleward toward east. Discontinuities at outer “boomerang” arms manifest intense interactions between tropical and subtropical/extratropical systems. The Pacific/North American pattern and related climate anomalies in North America found in earlier studies are modified in very different ways by the two phenomena. The seesaw with the dry north and the wet south in the western USA is more likely to occur during El Niño Modoki, while much of the western USA is wet during El Niño. The moisture to the southwestern USA is transported from the northward shifted ITCZ during El Niño Modoki, while it is carried by the storms traveling along the southerly shifted polar front jet during El Niño. The East Asian winter monsoon related anticyclone is over the South China Sea during El Niño Modoki as compared to its position over the Philippine Sea during El Niño, causing opposite precipitation anomalies in the southern East Asia between the two phenomena.     

Telecorrelation of the 500 hPa Polar Circulation and El Nino / SO with the Temperature Fields in China

By using the monthly data from 1951 through 1984, empirical orthogonal expansion is performed for the 500 hPa geopotential height north of 65°N and the canonical fields are clustered by fuzzy classification. It is noted that both the mean monthly polar vortex fields and the large-scale anomaly fields fall into three regimes, with those of the January mean field and th April anomaly field having characteristic features. In addition, the relationship between the time weigthing coefficients of the canonical fields and El Nino / SO is examined, showing significant anomalies in the large-scale polar anomaly fields during April and October of the year when El Nino occurs. These polar circulation anomalies have considerably influenced the temperature fields in China during April and October. Thus, we may conclude that this is one of the most important reasons for a relatively cool April and a warm October in China during the El Nino year.     

On the Mechanism of the Locking of the El Nino Event Onset Phase to Boreal Spring

The mechanism of the locking of the E1 Nino event onset phase to boreal spring （from April to June） in an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model is investigated. The results show that the seasonal variation of the zonal wind anomaly over the equatorial Pacific associated with the seasonal variation of the ITCZ is the mechanism of the locking in the model. From January to March of the E1 Nino year, the western wind anomaly over the western equatorial Pacific can excite the downwelling Kelvin wave that propagates eastward to the eastern and middle Pacific by April to June. From April to December of the year before the E1 Nifio year, the eastern wind anomaly over the equatorial Pacific forces the downwelling Rossby waves that modulate the ENSO cycle. The modulation and the reflection at the western boundary modulate the time of the transition from the cool to the warm phase to September of the year before the E1 Nifio year and cause the strongest downwelling Kelvin wave from the reflected Rossby waves at the western boundary to arrive in the middle and eastern equatorial Pacific by April to June of the E1 Nino year. The superposition of these two kinds of downwelling Kelvin waves causes the El Nino event to tend to occur from April to June.     

QBO Features of Tropical Pacific wind Stress Field with the Relation to El Nino

Analysis has been implemented of 1970-1992 tropical Pacific wind stress anomaly and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) datasets, indicating that quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the tropical Pacific WS and SSTA is featured both by a standing and a progressive form, the former emerging in the most intense centers of action and the latter travelling east- or west-ward out of the SSTA sources. Results show that the SSTA is in the warm (cold) phase as zonal component of euqatorial wind stress anomaly gets weakened (reinforced) and the QBO of wind stress anomaly is well related to the El Nino cycle.     

Influence of the strongest positive Indian Ocean Dipole and an El Niño Modoki event on the 2019 Indian summer monsoon

The year 2019 experienced an excess monsoon season over the Indian region, with the seasonal rainfall being 110 % of the long period average (LPA). Several zones across the country suffered multiple extreme rainfall events and flood situations resulting in a massive loss of life and property. The first half of 2019 experienced a moderate El Niño Modoki event that lasted till mid-summer. Another important feature of 2019 was the strongest recorded positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) that lasted approximately seven months from May to November. This study has examined the reasons for the intra-seasonal variability of rainfall over India during the 2019 monsoon using available remote sensing and reanalysis data. Our analysis has shown that the presence of El Niño and the formation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) in the Arabian Sea were unfavorable for the monsoon onset and its northward advancement during June. However, the Walker circulation associated with El Niño helped strengthen the IOD developed early in the Indian Ocean, much before the monsoon onset. The anomalously strong IOD strengthened the monsoon circulation during July-September and resulted in excess rainfall over India.     

El Niño Modoki connection to extremely-low streamflow of the Paranaíba River in Brazil

Extremely-low discharge events of the Paranaíba River basin during the austral summer season (December–February, DJF), are found to be associated with the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies resembling the recently identified El Niño Modoki phenomenon. Extreme discharge events are identified based on their persistent flow for 7 days and more after taking retention time into consideration. Ninety percent of the extremely low discharge events during peak streamflow seasons of DJF, are found to occur during the El Niño Modoki years. A diagnostics study of atmospheric anomalies has shown a clear connection between the modified Walker circulation, associated with the El Niño Modoki, and the precipitation anomalies over the Paranaíba River basin. The climate variations have direct relationship with the rainfall. Streamflow variations are considered as the surrogates to rainfalls. Thus, El Niño Modoki phase is important component to understand and predict the streamflow variations in the Paranaíba River basin.     

热带太平洋El Ni?o Modoki对中国近海及邻近海域海温的可能影响

1970年代末以后,热带太平洋海区出现了一种类似El Ni?o但又与其有本质区别的现象:El Ni?o Modoki,与其相关的各种海洋大气异常变化给全球气候带来了独特的影响。利用HadISST海温和NCEP/NCAR风场等再分析资料以及相关、回归和合成等统计方法,分析了El Ni?o Modoki与当年各季的中国近海及邻近海域海表温度（SST）的关系。结果表明:（1） 夏季El Ni?o Modoki与同年秋季中国近海及邻近海域的SST有显著的负相关关系,显著相关区域主要分布于黑潮以东的大片海域。（2） 夏季El Ni?o Modoki发生期间,菲律宾北部至中国近海及邻近海域的上空盛行异常偏北风,且热带西太平洋表层暖水东流,这不利于热带西太平洋暖水向中纬度地区的输送。分析结果还表明,海洋环境对风场有滞后的响应以及黑潮向北输送有减弱的现象,而这可能正是夏季El Ni?o Modoki影响秋季中国近海及邻近海域海温偏冷的重要原因。      

Weibull-k Revisited: “Tall” Profiles and Height Variation of Wind Statistics

The Weibull distribution is commonly used to describe climatological wind-speed distributions in the atmospheric boundary layer. While vertical profiles of mean wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer have received significant attention, the variation of the shape of the wind distribution with height is less understood. Previously we derived a probabilistic model based on similarity theory for calculating the effects of stability and planetary boundary-layer depth upon long-term mean wind profiles. However, some applications (e.g. wind energy estimation) require the Weibull shape parameter (k), as well as mean wind speed. Towards the aim of improving predictions of the Weibull- \(k\) profile, we develop expressions for the profile of long-term variance of wind speed, including a method extending our probabilistic wind-profile theory; together these two profiles lead to a profile of Weibull-shape parameter. Further, an alternate model for the vertical profile of Weibull shape parameter is made, improving upon a basis set forth by Wieringa (Boundary-Layer Meteorol, 1989, Vol. 47, 85–110), and connecting with a newly-corrected corollary of the perturbed geostrophic-drag theory of Troen and Petersen (European Wind Atlas, 1989, Risø National Laboratory, Roskilde). Comparing the models for Weibull-k profiles, a new interpretation and explanation is given for the vertical variation of the shape of wind-speed distributions. Results of the modelling are shown for a number of sites, with a discussion of the models’ efficacy and applicability. The latter includes a comparative evaluation of Wieringa-type empirical models and perturbed-geostrophic forms with regard to surface-layer behaviour, as well as for heights where climatological wind-speed variability is not dominated by surface effects.     

Roles of Multi-Scale Disturbances over the Tropical North Pacific in the Turnabout of 1997-98 El Nino

The space-time features of major vorticity disturbances over the western North Pacific during the 1997-98 El Nino ranked as one of the strongest events on record was investigated in this study. We distinguished the different roles that these disturbances had on different timescales in causing the reversal or turnabout of the El Nino event. Remarkable differences in the various disturbances of synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual timescales were found in the time evolution, propagation, and in their contributions to the changes in nearequatorial zonal flow, which was crucial to the demise of the warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific. It is hypothesized that the westward-traveling synoptic and intraseasonal oscillations in the western North Pacific might be considered as a self-provided negative feedback from the El Nino and played an additional role in its reversal in comparison with other interannual internal and external forcings. In this case, the off-equatorial synoptic and intraseaonal fluctuations served as a stochastic forcing for the tropical ocean and gave rise to the aperiodicity or irregularity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.     

Influence of Intraseasonal Oscillation on the Asymmetric Decays of El Ni?o and La Ni?a

Warm and cold phases of El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their decay speed. To explore the physical mechanism responsible for this asymmetric decay speed, the asymmetric features of anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation over the tropical Western Pacific (WP) in El Nino and La Nina mature-to-decay phases are analyzed. It is found that the interannual standard deviations of outgoing longwave radiation and 850 hPa zonal wind anomalies over the equatorial WP during El Nino (La Nina) mature-to-decay phases are much stronger (weaker) than the intraseasonal standard deviations. It seems that the weakened (enhanced) intraseasonal oscillation during El Nino (La Nina) tends to favor a stronger (weaker) interannual variation of the atmospheric wind, resulting in asymmetric equatorial WP zonal wind anomalies in El Nino and La Nina decay phases. Numerical experiments demonstrate that such asymmetric zonal wind stress anomalies during El Nino and La Nina decay phases can lead to an asymmetric decay speed of SST anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific through stimulating di erent equatorial Kelvin waves. The largest negative anomaly over the Nino3 region caused by the zonal wind stress anomalies during El Nino can be threefold greater than the positive Nino3 SSTA anomalies during La Nina, indicating that the stronger zonal wind stress anomalies over the equatorial WP play an important role in the faster decay speed during El Nino.     

Revisiting Asymmetry for the Decaying Phases of El Ni?o and La Ni?a

This study investigated the relationship between the asymmetry in the duration of El Ni?o and La Ni?a and the length of their decaying phases. The results suggested that the duration asymmetry comes from the long decaying ENSO cases rather than the short decaying ones. The evolutions of short decaying El Ni?o and La Ni?a are approximately a mirror image with a rapid decline in the following summer for the warm and cold events. However, a robust asymmetry was found in long decaying cases, with a prolonged and re-intensified La Ni?a in the following winter. The asymmetry for long decaying cases starts from the westward extension of the zonal wind anomalies in a mature winter, and is further contributed to by the air-sea interaction over the tropical Pacific in the following seasons.     

Subsurface ocean temperature indices for Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific types of El Ni?o and La Ni?a events

Subsurface ocean temperature indices are developed to identify two distinct types of tropical Pacific warming (El Ni?o) and cooling (La Ni?a) events: the Eastern-Pacific (EP) type and the Central-Pacific (CP) type. Ocean temperature anomalies in the upper 100?m are averaged over the eastern (80°W?C90°W, 5°S?C5°N) and central (160°E?C150°W, 5°S?C5°N) equatorial Pacific to construct the EP and CP subsurface indices, respectively. The analysis is performed for the period of 1958?C2001 using an ocean data assimilation product. It is found that the EP/CP subsurface indices are less correlated and show stronger skewness than the sea surface temperature (SST)-based indices. In addition, while both quasi-biennial (??2?years) and quasi-quadrennial (??4?years) periodicities appear in the SST-based indices for these two types, the subsurface indices are dominated only by the quasi-biennial periodicity for the CP type and by the quasi-quadrennial (??4?years) periodicity for the EP type. Low correlation, high skewness, and single leading periodicity are desirable properties for defining indices to separate the EP and CP types. Using the subsurface indices, major El Ni?o and La Ni?a events identified by the Ni?o-3.4 SST index are classified as the EP or CP types for the analysis period. It is found that most strong El Ni?o events are of the EP type while most strong La Ni?a events are of the CP type. It is also found that strong CP-type La Ni?a events tend to occur after strong EP-type El Ni?o events. The reversed subsequence (i.e., strong EP El Ni?o events follow strong CP La Ni?a events) does not appear to be typical. This study shows that subsurface ocean indices are an effective way to identify the EP and CP types of Pacific El Ni?o and La Ni?a events.     

The Relationship between the El Ni ?no/La Ni ?na Cycle and the Transition Chains of Four Atmospheric Oscillations. Part II: The Relationship and a New Approach to the Prediction of El Ni ?no

ABSTRACT The authors explored the connection and transition chains of the Northern Oscillation （NO） and the North Pacific Oscilla tion （NPO）, the Southern Oscillation （SO）, and the Antarctic Oscillation （AAO） on the interannual timescale in a companion paper. In this study, the connection between the transition chains of the four oscillations （the NO and NPO, the SO and AAO） and the El Nifio/La Nifia cycle were examined. It was found that during the transitions of the four oscillations, alternate anticyclonic/cyclonic correlation centers propagated from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific along both sides of the equator. Between the anticyclonic/cyclonic correlation centers, the zonal wind anomalies also moved eastwardly, favoring the advection of sea surface temperature anomalies from the tropical Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific. When the anti cyclonic anomalies arrived in the Eastern Pacific, the positive phase of NO/SO and La Nifia were established and vice versa. Thus, in 4-6 years, with an entire transition chain of the four oscillations, an E1 Nifio/La Nifia cycle completed. The eastward propagation of the covarying anomalies of the sea level pressure, zonal wind, and sea surface temperature was critical to the transition chains of the four oscillations and the cycle of E1 Nifio/La Nifia. Based on their close link, a new empirical prediction method of the timing of E1 Nifio by the transition chains of the four oscillations was proposed. The assessment provided confidence in the ability of the new method to supply information regarding the long-term variations of the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific.