Landslide hazard and risk mapping at catchment scale in the Arno River basin

We present the methodologies adopted and the outcomes obtained in the analysis of landslide risk in the basin of the Arno River (Central Italy) in the framework of a project sponsored by the Basin Authority of the Arno River, started in the year 2002 and completed at the beginning of 2005. In particular, a complete set of methods and applications for the assessment of landslide susceptibility and risk are described and discussed. A new landslide inventory of the whole area was realized, using conventional (aerial-photo interpretation and field surveys) and non-conventional methods (e.g. remote sensing techniques such as DInSAR and PS-InSAR). The great majority of the mapped mass movements are rotational slides (75%), solifluctions and other shallow slow movements (17%) and flows (5%), while soil slips, and other rapid landslides, seem less frequent everywhere within the basin. The relationships between landslide characteristics and environmental factors have been assessed through statistical analysis. As expected, the results show a strong control of land cover, lithology and morphology on landslide occurrence. The landslide frequency-size distribution shows a typical scaling behaviour already underlined in other landslide inventories worldwide. The assessment of landslide hazard in terms of probability of occurrence in a given time, based for mapped landslides on direct and indirect observations of the state of activity and recurrence time, has been extended to landslide-free areas through the application of statistical methods implemented in an artificial neural network (ANN). Unique conditions units (UCU) were defined by the map overlay of landslide preparatory factors (lithology, land cover, slope gradient, slope curvature and upslope contributing area) and afterwards used to construct a series of model vectors for the training and test of the ANN. Various different ANNs were selected throughout the basin, until each UCU was assigned a degree of membership to a susceptibility and a hazard class. Model validation confirms that prediction results are very good, with an average percentage of correctly recognized mass movements of about 85%. The analysis also revealed the existence of a large number of unmapped mass movements, thus contributing to the completeness of the final inventory. Temporal hazard was estimated via the translation of state of activity in recurrence time and hence probability of occurrence. The following intersection of hazard values with vulnerability and exposure figures, obtained by reclassification of digital vector mapping at 1:10,000 scale, lead to the definition of risk values for each terrain unit for different periods of time into the future. The final results of the research are now undergoing a process of integration and implementation within land planning and risk prevention policies and practices at local and national level.     

SHALSTAB模型在浙南林溪流域滑坡预测中的应用

受台风暴雨影响,浙南林溪流域滑坡频发。针对该区域滑坡规模小、长度与厚度比值大的特点,采用浅层滑坡稳定性模型(SHALSTAB)对潜在滑坡进行了预测,以log(降雨量q/土壤的导水系数T)作为划分标准,结果显示随着log(q/T)值的提高,预测的滑坡区域逐渐扩大,预测捕获率升高的同时,误判率也随之上升。以log(q/T)≤-3.1作为预测滑坡的判别标准,模型效果较好,预测捕获率为62.50%,误判率(17.79%)较低。预测结果显示,滑坡潜在区域主要位于斜坡下部、土体厚度大和坡度陡峭的地区,山体顶部、土体厚度薄和地形平坦的区域斜坡稳定。     

A deep-seated landslide dam in the Siriu Reservoir (Curvature Carpathians, Romania)

The Groapa Vântului (Wind’s Dip) landslide, situated in the Buz?u Carpathians, on the right-hand slope of the Siriu Reservoir, occurred in April 2006, after the first local movements were signaled in September–October 2005. It represents a reactivation of an older, apparently relict (and well covered by a secular beech forest) landslide, which blocked Siriu Reservoir for several weeks and caused a major change in the sedimentation regime downstream of it. The volume of the displaced material reached almost 2.5 million m³, affecting a surface of more than 250,000 m² and reducing the reservoir’s volume by almost 2 million m³. The landslide developed on a lithological contact of Paleogene flysch formations and features steep (40–50°) and high (up to 30 m) scarps, as well as complex inner sectors, of rotational, translational, and compresional movement. The assessment of landslide’s morphodynamic behavior is based on repeated geomorphological field mapping and measurements, differential Global Positioning System, and total station profiles, and mobile and fixed landmarks. This preliminary assessment contributes to the understanding of the behavior of old, peri-glacial landslide reactivations and also represents progress towards a better hazard assessment.     

Characteristics of debris flows from the lower part of the Lotru River basin (South Carpathians,Romania)

This paper focuses on characteristics of debris flows from the lower part of the Lotru River basin (South Carpathians, Romania). The damage produced by these debris flows has included burial of agricultural land, roads covered by debris flows, and even the obstruction of the Lotru River. Simple statistical analysis has been used to emphasize the characteristics of the debris flow sites. The collected data show that heavy rainfall is the main triggering mechanism of debris flow events in the Lotru hydrographic basin. The daily rainfall data for this region show that important debris flow events generally occur when rainfall exceeds 40 mm in 24 h, while rainfall levels between 25 and 40 mm in 24 h result in hyperconcentrated flows. For 11 of 14 studied debris flow sites, the fan area is greater than the source area, probably due to the thickness of the regolith, which is up to 5–10 m deep. Both source area and deposition area are very dynamic. The retreat rate calculated for five debris flow sites ranges from 5 to 30 m in 30 years (from 1975 to 2005). Channel cross section measurements on one of the debris flows show that velocity values vary from 1.31 to 2.64 m/s; corresponding discharge values vary from 4 to 10.03 m³/s.     

西藏波密易贡高速巨型滑坡特征及减灾研究

2000年4月9日晚,西藏林芝地区波密县易贡藏布河发生巨型高速滑坡。滑坡经历了高位滑动-碎屑流-土石水气浪-泥石流-次级滑坡等过程,具复合性。滑坡由5520m高程的雪山向下高速滑动,历时约10min,滑程8km,堆积于约2190m高程的易贡藏布江,形成坝高54m,长约2500m,库容可达288×108m3,体积约2.8×108～3.0×108m3的滑坡堰塞湖。为了减轻水位上涨对湖区4000多人员的淹没危害和防止滑坡“溃坝”对下游318国道及雅鲁藏布江大峡谷地区的危害,采用了在坝体开渠引流降低溃坝高程和湖水库容的减灾措施。     

新疆克里雅河流域绿洲适宜规模

利用克里雅河流域1957~2009年水文气象资料及2010年遥感影像数据,借助Z指数法及水热平衡模型分析了流域水资源在不同丰枯水平下的绿洲适宜规模。结果表明:克里雅河流域地表径流存在明显的丰枯变化;维持克里雅河流域下游天然绿洲稳定所需要的水资源为1.583亿 m3;现状面积下,克里雅河流域人工绿洲在丰水期处于稳定水平,枯水期与平水期皆为亚稳定水平;克里雅河流域人工绿洲在丰水期、平水期和枯水期的适宜规模分别为1 608~2 413 km2、1 157~1 736 km2和978~1 467 km2,而较高水资源保证度下最为适宜的规模应控制在978~1 736 km2。     

Younger Dryas to mid-Holocene environmental history of the lowlands of NW Transylvania, Romania

Pollen, micro-charcoal and total carbon analyses on sediments from the Turbuta palaeolake, in the Transylvanian Basin of NW Romania, reveal Younger Dryas to mid-Holocene environmental changes. The chronostratigraphy relies on AMS ¹⁴C measurements on organic matter and U/Th TIMS datings of snail shells. Results indicate the presence of Pinus and Betula open woodlands with small populations of Picea, Ulmus, Alnus and Salix before 12,000 cal yr BP. A fairly abrupt replacement of Pinus and Betula by Ulmus-dominated woodlands at ca. 11,900 cal. yr BP likely represents competition effects of vegetation driven by climate warming at the onset of the Holocene. By 11,000 cal yr BP, the woodlands were increasingly diverse and dense with the expansion of Quercus, Fraxinus and Tilia, the establishment of Corylus and the decline of upland herbaceous and shrubs taxa. The marked expansion of Quercus accompanied by Tilia between 10,500 and 8000 cal yr BP could be the result of low effective moisture associated with both low elevation of the site and with regional change towards a drier climate. At 10,000 cal yr BP, Corylus spread across the region, and by 8000 cal yr BP it replaced Quercus as a dominant forest constituent, with only little representation of Picea abies. Carpinus became established around 5500 cal yr BP, but it was only a minor constituent in local woodlands until ca. 5000 cal yr BP. Results from this study also indicate that the woodlands in the lowlands of Turbuta were never closed.     

Fluid evolution in the nepheline syenites of the Ditrău Alkaline Massif, Transylvania, Romania

The Ditrău Alkaline Massif is an intrusion into the Bucovina nappe system that is part of the Mesozoic crystalline zone located in Transylvania, Romania, in the Eastern Carpathians. Nepheline syenites are the most abundant rocks in the central and eastern part of the Massif, and represent the last major intrusion of the complex. Fluid inclusions in nepheline, aegirine and albite were trapped at magmatic conditions on or below the H₂O-saturated nepheline syenite solidus at about 400–600 °C and 2.5–5 kbars. Early nepheline, and to a lesser extent albite, were altered by highly saline fluids to produce cancrinite, sodalite and analcime, during this process cancrinite also trapped fluid inclusions. The fluids, in most cases, can be modeled by the H₂O–NaCl system with varying salinity; however inclusions with more complex fluid composition (containing K, Ca, CO₃, etc., in addition to NaCl) are common. Raman spectroscopic analyses of daughter minerals confirm the presence of alkali-carbonate fluids in some of the earliest inclusions in nepheline, aegirine and albite.

During crystallization, the melts exsolved a high salinity, carbonate-rich magmatic fluid that evolved to lower salinity as crystallization progressed. Phases that occur early in the paragenesis contain high-salinity inclusions while late phases contain low-salinity inclusions. The salinity trend is consistent with experimental data for the partitioning of chlorine between silicic melt and exsolved aqueous fluid at about 2.0 kbars. The activity of water (a_H2O) in the melt increases during crystallization, resulting in the formation of hydrous phases during late-stage crystallization of the nepheline syenites.     

RS & GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping of the Balason River basin,Darjeeling Himalaya,using logistic regression (LR) model

The present study deals with the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map of the Balason River basin, Darjeeling Himalaya, using a logistic regression model based on Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing. The landslide inventory map was prepared with a total of 295 landslide locations extracted from various satellite images and intensive field survey. Topographical maps, satellite images, geological, geomorphological, soil, rainfall and seismic data were collected, processed and constructed into a spatial database in a GIS environment. The chosen landslide-conditioning factors were altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, slope curvature, geology, geomorphology, soil, land use/land cover, normalised differential vegetation index, drainage density, lineament number density, distance from lineament, distance to drainage, stream power index, topographic wetted index, rainfall and peak ground acceleration. The produced landslide susceptibility map satisfied the decision rules and ?2 Log likelihood, Cox &; Snell R-Square and Nagelkerke R-Square values proved that all the independent variables were statistically significant. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the prediction accuracy of the landslide probability map was 96.10%. The proposed LR method can be used in other hazard/disaster studies and decision-making.     

Failure and flow development of a collapse induced complex landslide: the 2005 Kuzulu (Koyulhisar, Turkey) landslide hazard

Koyulhisar located in a slope of hilly region and constructed in the side of a mountain along the North Anatolian Fault Zone is frequently subject to landslides. A catastrophic landslide occurred on the morning of 17 March 2005 in the North of the Kuzulu district of Koyulhisar (Sivas, Turkey). This landslide caused widespread loss of life, and damage to buildings, and lifelines. Fifteen people were dead and five were injured, 21 houses and a minaret were covered and damaged severely. The case study presented in this paper describes and analyses the results of the detailed surveys of an interesting landslide in Kuzulu district of Koyulhisar (Sivas, Turkey), based on field and laboratory measurements and monitoring of the slide area. Landslide initiated as a collapse, and developed into debris avalanches in the valley. This phenomenon caused a disaster in the Kuzulu district. The importance of this landslide in particular has been recognized both in terms of its consequence for the people and structures and in terms of its role in allowing an understanding of process and properties of landslide triggered by a collapse in limestone karst. In view of the potential for such events to occur again in this area and environs, understanding of the failure mechanism is very crucial.     

Sequential processes in a landslide hazard at a slate quarry in Okayama,Japan

The 12 March 2001 landslide at a slate quarry in Okayama, Japan killed three workers. Composite studies based on field surveys of the landslide slope, interviews with local residents and quarry workers, and inspections of hydrological and seismological data have been used to clarify the causes of this slide and its movements. The results indicate that the landslide was enabled firstly by the steepness of the slope, which had been undercut by river; secondly, the structure was that of a dip-slope that was prone to deep-seated slides along bedding planes; thirdly, numerous joints and faults were present. Surprisingly, rainfall, earthquakes, and explosions do not appear to have played any role in the triggering of this slide. The interviews demonstrated that the frequency of precursory failures increased over a period of several hours before the 12 March 2001 landslide. Inspection of the seismograph records and the eyewitness evidence both indicate that the main part of the landslide consisted of two phases of slope failure within 23 s. After the slide, the frequency of the failures gradually decreased with time over a period of several days. Three new terms are proposed for landslides: foreslide, mainslide, and afterslide, following the terms foreshock, main shock, and aftershock used in seismology.     

Late Glacial and Holocene vegetation history in the southern part of Transylvania (Romania): pollen analysis of two sequences from Avrig

We present here the results of pollen analysis of two sequences of about 8.06 m and 11.90 m length, originating from two adjacent peat bogs in the southern part of Transylvania province, Romania (155 and 122 pollen spectra). The vegetation record, which is supported by 17 ¹⁴C dates, begins in the Late Glacial interstadial when forest recolonisation began with the development of Pinus, without a pioneer Betula phase. Picea began to expand from regional refuges. After a well‐defined Younger Dryas, the Holocene opens with the expansion of Betula, Ulmus and Picea, followed, at about 10 400 cal. yr BP, by Fraxinus, Quercus and Tilia. The Corylus optimum is correlated with the Atlantic chronozone (after 8600 cal. yr BP). The local establishment of Carpinus occurred at about 6500 cal. yr BP, with a maximum at about 5700 cal. yr BP. Fagus pollen is regularly recorded after 8200 cal. yr BP. This taxon became dominant at about 3700 cal. yr BP. The first indications of human activities appear at around 7200 cal. yr BP. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mapping of landslide hazard zonation using GIS at Golestan watershed, northeast of Iran

Landslide hazard zonation is essential for planning future developmental activities. At the present study, after the preparation of a landslide inventory of the study area, nine factors as well as sub-data layers of factor class weights were tested for an integrated analysis of landslide hazard in the region. The produced factor maps were weighted with the analytic hierarchy process method and then classified into four classes—negligible, low, moderate, and high. The final produced map for landslide hazard zonation in Golestan watershed revealed that: (1) about 53.85 % of the basin is prone to moderate and high threats of landslides. (2) Landslide events at the Golestan watershed were strongly correlated to the slope angle of the basin. It was observed that the active landslide zones, including moderate to high landslide hazard classes, have a high correlation to slope classes over 30° (R ²?=?0.769). (3) The regions most susceptible to landslide hazard are those located south and southwest of the watershed, which included rock topples, falls, and debris landslides.     

Medium-scale hazard mapping for shallow landslide initiation: the Buyukkoy catchment area (Cayeli, Rize, Turkey)

The main purpose of this study is to develop a new hazard evaluation technique considering the current limitations, particularly for shallow landslides. For this purpose, the Buyukkoy catchment area, located in the East Black Sea Region in the east of Rize province and the south of Cayeli district, was selected as the study area. The investigations were executed in four different stages. These were (1) preparation of a temporal shallow landslide inventory of the study area, (2) assessment of conditioning factors in the catchment, (3) susceptibility analyses and (4) hazard evaluations and mapping. A total of 251 shallow landslides in the period of 1955–2007 were recognised using different data sources. A ‘Sampling Circle’ approach was proposed to define shallow landslide initiation in the mapping units in susceptibility evaluations. To accomplish the susceptibility analyses, the method of artificial neural networks was implemented. According to the performance analyses conducted using the training and testing datasets, the prediction and generalisation capacities of the models were found to be very high. To transform the susceptibility values into hazard rates, a new approach with a new equation was developed, taking into account the behaviour of the responsible triggering factor over time in the study area. In the proposed equation, the threshold value of the triggering factor and the recurrence interval are the independent variables. This unique property of the suggested equation allows the execution of more flexible and more dynamic hazard assessments. Finally, using the proposed technique, shallow landslide initiation hazard maps of the Buyukkoy catchment area for the return periods of 1, 2, 5, 10, 50 and 100 years were produced.     

梅溪河流域明水中学滑坡形成机理与稳定性评价

明水中学滑坡位于梅溪河左岸,为典型的松散堆积体滑坡。通过分析坡体结构、形态、组成及变形特征等滑坡工程地质条件,认为该滑坡形成大致经历了“崩塌堆积-滑移-趋稳定-复活”4个阶段。运用GEO-SLOPE软件对滑坡变形状态进行定量分析,确定滑坡稳定性。计算结果表明,明水中学滑坡目前整体处于较稳定状态,发生整体滑动的可能性较小,但在天然工况下,滑坡体前缘已接近极限平衡状态,产生滑移的可能性较大。     

IPCC AR4气候情景下长江流域径流预测

通过评估IPCC第四次评估公开发布的22个全球气候模式对长江流域降水和气温的模拟性能,选取了BC-CR-BCM2.0等7个气候模式,利用这些GCM s在A1B、A2和B1三种典型排放情景下的未来气温和降水预测结果,结合BP神经网络模型,在对模型验证效果良好的基础上,预测未来气候变化下长江流域径流变化趋势.结果表明,长江流域未来年平均径流量呈减少趋势,宜昌水文站以枯水年减少为主,未来年平均流量比历史年平均流量减少了520 m3/s;大通水文站则以平水年减少为主,比历史年平均流量减少了250 m3/s,水量的减少对南水北调东中线的调水规模和调配、管理提出了较大的挑战.长江流域多年平均月流量增加将主要发生在1~6月,而7~12月将以减少趋势为主.宜昌站和大通站的1~6月份平均增加幅度分别为29.6%和13.8%,7~12月份的平均减少幅度分别为-18.2%和-11.0%,宜昌站的变幅要高于大通站.宜昌站汛期呈减少趋势,平均为-8.5%,非汛期略有增加.大通站变化趋势与宜昌站相反,汛期呈增加趋势,平均为2.3%,非汛期略有减少.     

Rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide occurrence at regional scale

This paper concerns a regional scale warning system for landslides that relies on a decisional algorithm based on the comparison between rainfall recordings and statistically defined thresholds. The latter were based on the total amount of rainfall, which was cumulated considering different time intervals: 1-, 2- and 3-day cumulates took into account the critical rainfall influencing shallow movements, whilst a variable time interval cumulate (up to 240 days) was used to consider the triggering of deep-seated landslides in low permeability terrains. A prototypal version of the model was initially set up to define statistical thresholds. Then, thresholds were calibrated using a database of past georegistered and dated landslides. A validation procedure showed that the calibration highly improves the results and therefore the model was integrated in the regional warning system of Emilia Romagna (Italy) for civil protection purposes. The proposed methodology could be easily implemented in other similar regions and countries where a sufficiently organised meteorological network is present.     

The role of rainfall in the landslide hazard: the case of the Avigliano urban area (Southern Apennines, Italy)

Mass movements varying in type and size, some of which are periodically reactivated, affect the urban area of Avigliano. The disturbed and remoulded masses consist of sandy–silty or silty–clayey plastic material interbedded with stone fragments and conglomerate blocks. Five landslides that were markedly liable to rainfall-associated instability phenomena were selected.

The relationships between landslides and rainfall were investigated using a hydrological and statistical model based on long-term series of daily rainfall data. The model was used to determine the return period of cumulative daily rainfall over 1–180 days. The resulting hydrological and statistical findings are discussed with the aim of identifying the rainfall duration most critical to landslides.

The concept of a precipitation threshold was generalized by defining some probability classes of cumulative rainfall. These classes indicate the thresholds beyond which reactivation is likely to occur. The probability classes are defined according to the return period of the cumulative rainfall concomitant with landslide reactivation.