Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN

Climate change alters global food systems, especially agriculture and fisheries—significant aspects of the livelihoods and food security of populations. The 2014 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report identified Southeast Asia as the most vulnerable coastal region in the world, and highlighted the potential distribution of impacts and risks of climate change in the region. While climate hazards may differ across geographical regions, the impact of climate extremes on food production will affect marginal farmers, fishers and poor urban consumers disproportionately, as they have limited capacities to adapt to and recover from extreme weather events. Governments and other stakeholders need to respond to climate extremes and incorporate adaptation into national development plans. Unfortunately, there is still limited peer-review publication on the subject matter. This paper presents some findings from research on observed and projected loss and damage inflicted by climate extremes on agricultural crops in Southeast Asia.     

气候变化下水文极端事件变化预测研究进展

全球气候变化对洪水、干旱等极端水文事件的影响已成为一个亟待解决的科学问题.针对国内外在气候变化下采用统计降尺度和降雨径流模型对水文极端事件进行预测的研究进展进行了系统分析,在分类阐述的基础上,总结了国内外最新的研究进展及在预估过程中存在的问题和解决方案,试图凝练出一些气候变化背景下水文极端事件预估的新思路.结果表明:为有效降低极端水文事件预估的不确定性,各种集合模拟技术、数据同化方法、强化观测技术及水文模型的尺度转换理论将是有效的解决途径.     

Climate changes: impacts on geomorphic processes

Climate is one of the conditions which permits, inhibits, retards or enhances certain responses in the geomorphic environment. Components of climate important to geomorphic processes include (1) the duration and character of climate episodes, i.e., the variation of the various climate parameters during any such period, and (2) the nature of discontinuities at both a climate episode's beginning and end, i.e., the magnitude of change and the rate of change occurring at the time of discontinuity. We will evaluate changes in the climate character over the Holocene, compare that to that observed during the instrumental period and, in turn, compare to predicted changes for an atmosphere with twice today's carbon dioxide concentration.     

Climate impacts: temperature and electricity consumption

Natural Hazards - One of the aspects of climate change is temperature rise. Temperature rise or fluctuations affect human economic activities and electricity consumption. This paper estimates the...     

Climate change impacts on environmental geosciences: Introduction

正Climate change and its impacts have become topical issues of global news, scientific research and conferences. Environmental Geosciences incorporate the various disciplines of geosciences and their multifaceted interactions with life. Research discussions on the interaction of climate change, geosciences and environment may often be blur, and Schmidt-Thoméet al.(2010) stated that"Often past climate changes that can be deduced from geological records may help in understanding the speed of potential climate change effects, i.e. how quickly have sea levels changed, how drastic has nature reacted to ups and downs in temperature, etc. These analyses of past events help in giving outlooks on potential changes in our living environment. It is also of important to understand the magnitude and potential effects of extreme events, such as droughts and floods".     

Climate change impacts in Romania: Vulnerability and adaptation options

Using the output from five climate model experiments (four equilibrium GCMs and one transient GCM) for a double carbon dioxide atmospheric concentration, the climate change scenarios in Romania for a time slice up to 2075 were constructed. These scenarios were used to assess the climate change impacts on different resource sectors: agricultural crops, forests, and water resources. The vulnerability of each sector and specific adaptation options were then analysed. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate change and its impacts on the coastal zone of the Nile Delta,Egypt

The main objectives of the current work are (1) to determine historic pattern of shoreline changes (erosion and accretion) along the north coast of the Nile Delta, (2) to present a future view on what to be expected regarding climate change impacts, sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, expected land losses and alteration of some soil characteristics (3) to recognize negative impacts of SLR on the Nile Delta coast and (4) to assess and suggest protection measures. The current investigation was conducted using the advanced techniques of remote sensing and geographic information system. The investigated area with 394 measured locations is located along the northern coast of the Nile Delta between Alexandria and ElTina plain in Sinai peninsula exactly between 29°20′ and 32°40′ E and 29°54′ and 31°35′ N with the minimum erosion values of 1.11 m², maximum of 6,044,951.64 m² and total of 16.02 km². On the other hand, 177 sites showed minimum accretion values of 0.05 m², maximum of 2,876,855.86 m² and total of 13.19 km². SLR was determined by applying the quadrant equation for 10-year intervals using 1990 as the base year. Mediterranean SLR along the Nile Delta coast could be estimated considering three different scenarios (low 0.20 m, medium 0.50 m, and high 0.90 m). Impacts of SLR are divided into (1) primary and (2) secondary impacts. Over the coming decades, the Nile Delta will face greater threat due to SLR and land subsidence as well. Regarding climate change and its impacts on soil characteristics, rapid increase in salinity values during the former three decades were found. This increase may be due to the intrusion of salty water of the Mediterranean. On the other hand, organic matter content decreased due to higher temperature, especially during the summer season. Some protection measures were assessed and suggested to combat or tackle SLR.     

Climate impacts of environmental degradation in Sudan

There exists an impressive amount of work for Sudan showing the anthropogenic degradation of natural vegetation cover. However, there are few examples of consequent climatic changes in literature. This work, thus, seeks to assess such effects of environmental forcing on various climatic patterns over the past few decades. Within the frame of the present analysis, the results are quite striking and are in concordance with scientific contentions that such land degradation could result in climatic modification. Higher temperature and less rainfall, sunshine duration and global radiation have been noticed. Evapotranspiration has responded more to the warming and drying conditions, thus showed signs of increasing rates, especially during the wet season. However, the extent of increase seems to have been suppressed by the decrease in sunshine duration and solar radiation as well as the inconsistent behaviour of wind speed. Changes in the variability of the within-year monthly observations have also occurred, thus suggesting an increase in the occurrence of extremes. The observed climatic modification in the country has exaggerated the insidious drought conditions. The present findings are hoped to contribute to our understanding of the effects of environmental problem and assist in considering policy responses. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate change impacts on socioeconomic damages from weather-related events in China

Natural Hazards - China is vulnerable to climate change impacts, and this study investigates the potential socioeconomic damages to China from weather-related events under future climate...     

Climate change impacts on U.S. Coastal and Marine Ecosystems

Increases in concentrations of greenhouse gases projected for the 21st century are expected to lead to increased mean global air and ocean temperatures. The National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change (NAST 2001) was based on a series of regional and sector assessments. This paper is a summary of the coastal and marine resources sector review of potential impacts on shorelines, estuaries, coastal wetlands, coral reefs, and ocean margin ecosystems. The assessment considered the impacts of several key drivers of climate change: sea level change; alterations in precipitation patterns and subsequent delivery of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment; increased ocean temperature; alterations in circulation patterns; changes in frequency and intensity of coastal storms; and increased levels of atmospheric CO₂. Increasing rates of sea-level rise and intensity and frequency of coastal storms and hurricanes over the next decades will increase threats to shorelines, wetlands, and coastal development. Estuarine productivity will change in response to alteration in the timing and amount of freshwater, nutrients, and sediment delivery. Higher water temperatures and changes in freshwater delivery will alter estuarine stratification, residence time, and eutrophication. Increased ocean temperatures are expected to increase coral bleaching and higher CO₂ levels may reduce coral calcification, making it more difficult for corals to recover from other disturbances, and inhibiting poleward shifts. Ocean warming is expected to cause poleward shifts in the ranges of many other organisms, including commercial species, and these shifts may have secondary effects on their predators and prey. Although these potential impacts of climate change and variability will vary from system to system, it is important to recognize that they will be superimposed upon, and in many cases intensify, other ecosystem stresses (pollution, harvesting, habitat destruction, invasive species, land and resource use, extreme natural events), which may lead to more significant consequences.     

长江流域极端水文气象事件时空变化特征及其对植被的影响

利用1982-2015年高时空分辨率地面气象再分析数据,识别以降水和大气饱和水气压差（VPD）为指标的极端干旱（Dry-VPD和Dry-PRE）和极端湿润（Wet-VPD和Wet-PRE）事件,分析其年际变化趋势;结合归一化植被指数（NDVI）,探讨植被与不同极端事件发生频数的相关关系与差异。结果表明:除Wet-VPD外,Dry-VPD、Wet-PRE和Dry-PRE总体呈上升趋势,特别是1998年以后Dry-VPD在长江上、下游流域显著增加;长江流域植被对极端干旱事件的敏感性（以负相关为主）高于极端湿润事件,且长江上游植被对Dry-VPD敏感,而中下游植被对Dry-PRE敏感。综上,长江流域极端干旱事件日趋严重,相较于降水干旱限制植被生长的传统认识,本研究指出在长江上游地区大气干旱对植被的负效应更加明显。     

Climate change impacts on extreme floods I: combining imperfect deterministic simulations and non-stationary frequency analysis

Flood quantiles are routinely used in hydrologic engineering to design hydraulic structures, optimize erosion control structure and map the extent of floodplains. As an increasing number of papers are pointing out cycles and trends in hydrologic time series, the use of stationary flood distributions leads to the overestimation or underestimation of the hydrologic risk at a given time. Several authors tried to address this problem by using probability distributions with time-varying parameters. The parameters of these distributions were assumed to follow a linear or quadratic trend in time, which may be valid for the short term but may lead to unrealistic long-term projections. On the other hand, deterministic rainfall-runoff models are able to successfully reproduce trends and cycles in stream flow data but can perform poorly in reproducing daily flows and flood peaks. Rainfall-runoff models typically have a better performance when simulation results are aggregated at a larger time scale (e.g. at a monthly time scale vs. at a daily time scale). The strengths of these two approaches are combined in this paper where the annual maximum of the time-averaged outputs of a hydrologic model are used to modulate the parameters of a non-stationary GEV model of the daily maximum flow. The method was applied to the Kemptville Creek located in Ontario, Canada, using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model as rainfall-runoff model. The parameters of the non-stationary GEV model are then estimated using Monte Carlo Markov Chain, and the optimal span of the time windows over which the SWAT outputs were averaged was selected using Bayes factors. Results show that using the non-stationary GEV distribution with a location parameter linked to the maximum 9-day average flow provides a much better estimation of flood quantiles than applying a stationary frequency analysis to the simulated peak flows.     

Sea level rise and impacts on nearshore sedimentation: an overview

 Impacts on nearshore sedimentation arising from potential sea level change of the magnitude predicted in Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change scenarios associated with global warming are reviewed. For sandy duned coasts, the obvious sedimentation impacts include potential erosion of coastal dunes with implied deposition of the eroded material in the nearshore, possible deepening of embayments, and flooding of wetlands. For the sandy coasts a number of two-dimensional models are available for predicting shoreline change, but there are significant difficulties in applying Bruun-type models for dune erosion and assessment of sediment redistribution over the inner shelf, and for predicting the amount of shoreline retreat for a given rate of sea level rise. If the beach profile contains excessive sand relative to its equilibrium profile, sensu Dean (1991), then shoreline retreat may not occur upon sea level rise. From the evidence of Kiel Bay, at least in these semi-enclosed basin types, it is during major transgressions that maximum deposition in adjacent basins occurs, due to the sea eroding weakly consolidated and weathered surface regolith. But at the same time climatic patterns were re-adjusting and probably contributed to maximum deposition in adjacent shelf and basins below wave base. Received: 16 June 1995 / Accepted: 29 January 1996     

Climate change impacts on groundwater resources: modelled deficits in a chalky aquifer,Geer basin,Belgium

An integrated hydrological model (MOHISE) was developed in order to study the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle in representative water basins in Belgium. This model considers most hydrological processes in a physically consistent way, more particularly groundwater flows which are modelled using a spatially distributed, finite-element approach. Thanks to this accurate numerical tool, after detailed calibration and validation, quantitative interpretations can be drawn from the groundwater model results. Considering IPCC climate change scenarios, the integrated approach was applied to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water cycle in the Geer basin in Belgium. The groundwater model is described in detail, and results are discussed in terms of climate change impact on the evolution of groundwater levels and groundwater reserves. From the modelling application on the Geer basin, it appears that, on a pluri-annual basis, most tested scenarios predict a decrease in groundwater levels and reserves in relation to variations in climatic conditions. However, for this aquifer, the tested scenarios show no enhancement of the seasonal changes in groundwater levels.

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Resumen Se ha desarrollado un modelo hidrológico integrado (MOHISE) para estudiar el impacto del cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de cuencas representativas en Bélgica. Este modelo considera todos los procesos hidrológicos de forma coherente, especialmente en relación con los flujos de aguas subterráneas, que son modelados por medio de un enfoque de elementos finitos espacialmente distribuidos. Gracias a esta herramienta numérica precisa, y tras una calibración y validación detalladas, se puede obtener interpretaciones cuantitativas de los resultados del modelo del acuífero. Considerando escenarios de cambio climático IPCC, se ha aplicado el enfoque integrado a la evaluación del impacto de dicho cambio climático en el ciclo hidrológico de la cuenca del Geer. Se describe los detalles y resultados del modelo de las aguas subterráneas en términos del impacto del cambio climático en la evolución de las reservas de los acuíferos. Los resultados preliminares indican que es posible esperar déficits de aguas subterráneas en un futuro en Bélgica.

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Résumé Un modèle hydrologique intégré (MOHISE) a été développé afin détudier limpact du changement climatique sur le cycle hydrologique de bassins versants représentatifs de Belgique. Ce modèle prend en compte tous les processus hydrologiques dune manière physiquement consistante, plus particulièrement les écoulements souterrains qui sont modélisés par une approche spatialement distribuée aux éléments finis. Grâce à cet outil numérique précis, après une calibration et une validation détaillées, des interprétations quantitatives peuvent être réalisées à partir des résultats du modèle de nappe. Considérant des scénarios de changements climatiques de lIPCC, lapproche intégrée a été appliquée pour évaluer limpact du changement climatique sur le cycle de leau du bassin du Geer en Belgique. Le modèle de nappe est décrit en détail et les résultats sont discutés en terme dimpact du changement climatique sur lévolution des réserves souterraines. Les premiers résultats indiquent que des déficits deau souterraine peuvent apparaître dans le futur en Belgique.

     

Climate extremes related with rainfall in the State of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: a review of climatological characteristics and recorded trends

This paper presents a synthesis of the main characteristics of precipitation in the State of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) based on extreme rainfall indicators. Daily precipitation data are derived from 56 rainfall stations during the second half of the twentieth century and the 2000s. Eight indices related to extreme precipitation were analyzed. The Mann–Kendall nonparametric test and the Sen's Curvature were employed to evaluate the significance and magnitude of trends. The primary climatological aspects and identified trends throughout the last decades are discussed, besides the hydrometeorological impacts associated with them. Lower values of annual total precipitation are recorded in northern Rio de Janeiro (around 800 mm) and higher in the southern State (up to 2,200 mm). The Serra do Mar affects the frequency of heavy precipitation, and the areas near the sea and high relief present the highest values of consecutive days with expressive rainfall (more than 150 mm in 5 days). These areas also showed a high concentration of flood and landslides events. Most of Rio de Janeiro exhibits precipitation intensity of about 13 mm/day. The maximum number of consecutive dry days shows a gradient from the coast (about 30 days) to the State's interior (around 50 days). Regarding trends, there is a growth of accumulated extreme precipitation in various stations near the ocean. The extreme rainfall in 24 h displays an increase in most Rio de Janeiro (+?1 to?+?5 mm/decade). The consecutive dry and rainy days present similar signs of decreasing trends, suggesting irregularly distributed precipitation in the State. This study is especially relevant for decision-makers who need detailed information in the short and long term to prevent natural hazards like floods and landslides and the related impacts in the environmental and socioeconomic sectors of the Rio de Janeiro.

     

呼和湖凹陷断裂特征及其对油气成藏的影响

断裂的形成演化过程对油气的运聚成藏具有重要的影响。本文系统分析了呼和湖凹陷断裂特征、断裂演化及其与油气成藏的关系。研究表明,呼和湖凹陷以T_(22)和T_(04)反射层为界,划分为3套构造层,分别为下部伸展断陷构造层、中部断坳构造层,上部坳陷构造层,其中上部构造层中断裂不发育。纵向上主要发育了两套断裂系统,下部断裂系统展布方向主要是北东东向、北东向和北北东向。上部断裂系统展布方向主要为北北东向和北北西向。发育4种类型的断裂,分别为早期伸展断裂,中期走滑断裂,早期伸展中期走滑断裂和早期伸展中期走滑晚期反转断裂。断裂的主要形成时期为南屯组末期、伊敏组末期和青元岗组末期。断裂的形成和演化影响烃源岩的分布和热演化程度,形成多种类型的圈闭,为油气垂向运移提供良好的运移通道。其中在主力生油洼槽及其周边的几个控陷断层附近有利于油气富集。     

呼和湖凹陷断裂特征及其对油气成藏的影响

断裂的形成演化过程对油气的运聚成藏具有重要的影响。本文系统分析了呼和湖凹陷断裂特征、断裂演化及其与油气成藏的关系。研究表明,呼和湖凹陷以T22和T04反射层为界,划分为3套构造层,分别为下部伸展断陷构造层、中部断坳构造层,上部坳陷构造层,其中上部构造层中断裂不发育。纵向上主要发育了两套断裂系统,下部断裂系统展布方向主要是北东东向、北东向和北北东向。上部断裂系统展布方向主要为北北东向和北北西向。发育4种类型的断裂,分别为早期伸展断裂,中期走滑断裂,早期伸展中期走滑断裂和早期伸展中期走滑晚期反转断裂。断裂的主要形成时期为南屯组末期、伊敏组末期和青元岗组末期。断裂的形成和演化影响烃源岩的分布和热演化程度,形成多种类型的圈闭,为油气垂向运移提供良好的运移通道。其中在主力生油洼槽及其周边的几个控陷断层附近有利于油气富集。