Hydrology analysis of the Colorado River floods of 1983

Despite an extensive system of river regulation works, the mainstem of the Colorado River in 1983 experienced the highest flows on record, resulting in severe flood damage. The high flows were due to an abnormally late season mountain snow accumulation, an accelerated snowpack ablation, and high initial reservoir levels. Forecasts of April-July inflow to Lake Powell, the major Upper Basin reservoir, nearly doubled from early May to late June.The report evaluates the efficacy of runoff and inflow prediction methodologies utilized to formulate reservoir operational responses during the winter and spring of 1983. Given the restrictions inherent in the forecasting network, the reservoir release schedule followed during the period by the US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) is then reviewed. Two alternative reservoir release schedules are also presented, and their hypothetical impacts on flooding assessed. In light of the 1983 flooding, recommendations are made to increase the reliability of flood predictions for Colorado River reservoirs and to reduce the extent of future damage to and destabilization of the biological and physical resources of Grand Canyon National Park.A brief epilogue provides an update on the evolution of the Colorado River reservoir operations policy. The new policies helped to attenuate 1984 peak reservoir discharges, even though the 1984 total tunoff exceeded that of 1983.     

Natural and anthropogenic hazards in the Yellow River Delta,China

Natural Hazards - In China, the Yellow River Delta is a unique region with vulnerable ecosystems, and it is under the largest pressure from various risk sources. In recent years, this region has...     

Natural hazards in the Ghaghara River area, Ganga Plain, India

The Ganga Plain is one of the most densely populated regions of the world due to its fertile soil and availability of water. The rivers of this plain are the lifeline for millions of people of this vast alluvial plain. All rivers of this plain are characterized by narrow channel confined within wide valley. Continuously increasing pressure of population on this plain has led to the intensification of settlement even into the valley of the river. This unplanned expansion has enhanced the damage due to flooding during high-discharge period and lateral erosion during low-discharge period. Flooding and lateral erosion are identified as fluvial hazards in the Ghaghara River area. Extensive studies have been carried out on flooding, but not much attention has been paid to the phenomenon of lateral erosion. However, it has been observed that lateral erosion is an independent fluvial hazard that operates during low-discharge period. Low degree of compaction due to the presence of sandy and silty facies in the river valley deposits, mass movement, palaeocurrent pattern, and fractures initiates and enhances the lateral erosion. The present paper deals with the fluvial hazards in the Ghaghara River area.     

Mechanism of post-seismic floods after the Wenchuan earthquake in the upper Minjiang River,China

By analyzing the multi-year runoff and rainfall data at 15 hydrological stations from 1980 to 2007, as well as monthly runoff data from 1964 to 1984 at the Zipingpu hydrologic station, the relationship between precipitation and runoff has been established and the trend was explored. Based on the catastrophic floods of August 13 and August 18, 2010, characteristics and control factors on the post-seismic floods are summarized. Firstly, the Wenchuan earthquake and rupture zone provides the background for post-seismic floods to develop in the upper Minjiang River, which follows a post-seismic disaster-chain pattern: earthquake collapse to landslide debris flows to floods. Secondly, heavy rainfall controlled by the orographically-enhanced precipitation after the Wenchuan earthquake is the trigger factor for the development of devastating post-seismic floods. Thirdly, the post-seismic floods contain high sediment discharge, cause abrupt and severe damages, and have a large of volume and higher frequency.     

River sediments,great floods and centennial‐scale Holocene climate change

A new analysis of all 346 published ¹⁴C dated Holocene alluvial units in Britain offers a unique insight into the regional impacts of global change and shows how surprisingly sensitive British rivers have been to relatively modest but repeated changes in climate. Fourteen major but probably brief periods of flooding are identified bracketed within the periods 400–1070, 1940–3940, 7520–8100 and at ca. 10 420 cal. yr BP. There is a strong correspondence between climatic deteriorations inferred from mire wet shifts and major periods of flooding, especially at ca. 8000 cal. yr BP and since ca. 4000 cal. yr BP. The unusually long and complete British record also demonstrates that alterations in land cover have resulted in a step change in river basin sensitivity to variations in climate. This has very important implications for assessing and mitigating the impact of increasing severe flooding. In small and medium‐sized river basins land use is likely to play a key role in either moderating or amplifying the climatic signal. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Measuring individual vulnerability to floods in the lower and middle Grijalva River Basin,Tabasco, Mexico

Natural Hazards - We built an easy-to-interpret individual vulnerability index to floods that is amenable for empirical testing and may be adapted to any perceived hazard or ecological setting. An...     

Social vulnerability to floods: a case study of Huaihe River Basin

Since ancient times, floods occurred frequently in Huaihe River with significant casualties and economic losses. In developing measures for disaster prevention or emergency response for disaster relief, the study of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River Basin should be strengthened. Based on the latest socioeconomic data, the index system of social vulnerability to floods was constructed from three dimensions: population, economy, and flood prevention. Sensitive indexes were identified from the original indexes by principal component analysis, and the social vulnerability index for floods was calculated for Huaihe River Basin. The results described the characteristics of the spatial distribution. It also demonstrated that vulnerability manifests itself as a regional phenomenon, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River Basin. Understanding the impacts of changes in vulnerability was crucial in developing measures to prevent floods.     

Ancient and modern cold-climate aeolian sand deposition: A review

Although partly active aeolian sand sheets and dunes cover large areas in the zones of (dis)continuous permafrost, little precise information is available about the influence of cold-climate conditions on modern aeolian processes. This means that palaeoenvironmental reconstructions in the stabilised, mainly Late Pleistocene dune fields and cover sand regions in the ‘sand belts’ of the European Lowlands and the Northern Great Plains of the USA and Canada, are necessarily still based on ancient evidence. Cold-climate wind deposits are typically derived from areas of abundant sediment supply like unvegetated flood plains, glacial outwash plains, till plains and lake shores. The common parabolic and transverse dune forms resemble those observed in temperate regions. Although a variety of periglacial features has been identified in Late Pleistocene dune and cover sands none of them indicate that permafrost is crucial to aeolian activity. Specific structures in aeolian strata permit tentative interpretation of the moisture content of depositional sand surfaces, the nature of annual sedimentation cycles and the processes by which strata were deposited and/or contorted. But surprisingly little is known about the role of vegetation in the process of sand accumulation. Dunes are most informative with respect to reconstructions of past wind regimes, which offer important data for verification of palaeoclimatic simulations.     

Extraordinary floods related to the climatic event at 4200 a BP on the Qishuihe River,middle reaches of the Yellow River,China

Palaeo-hydrological study was carried out in the Qishuihe River valley in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Several bedsets of flood slackwater deposit were identified in the Holocene loess-soil sequences on the riverbanks. They were differentiated from aeolian loess and soils by the parallel and waving beddings and the distinctive stratigraphic breaks separating individual palaeoflood events. Chronology of the flood events was established by OSL dating, checked by archaeological identification of the anthropogenic remains retrieved from the sequences. The results show that successive floods occurred between 4300 and 4000 a BP in association with the abrupt climatic event of 4200 a BP. These overbank floods had the riverbank settlement inundated repeatedly. Another series of extraordinary floods occurred between 3200 and 3000 a BP when monsoonal climate shifted from the mid-Holocene Climatic Optimum toward late Holocene dry conditions. The climatic event of 4200 a BP and the climatic decline at 3100 a BP were believed to be characterized by droughts previously. This work provides solid evidence that both severe droughts and extreme floods were parts of the climatic variability during abrupt climatic event and climatic decline in the semi-arid to sub-humid zones over the world.     

Relationship between groundwater properties and soil salinity at the Lower Nam Kam River Basin in Thailand

The Lower Nam Kam River Basin lies in the vicinity of the Mekong River and is located in the eastern section of the Nakhon Panom Province in northeastern Thailand. Drought, particularly in the winter and summer seasons, is the main environmental challenge in this area. In addition, soil becomes saline and groundwater is brackish in some locations. This problem worsens the drought crisis in the area. Groundwater is known to closely relate to the soil salinity distribution. To successfully manage highly saline areas, saline groundwater and soil properties must be evaluated together. Therefore, the main objective was to study the shallow groundwater physical and chemical properties in conjunction with surface soil salinity. Soil samples were collected and measured for physical and chemical properties. Shallow groundwater was measured for depth from ground surface and sampled from the sites in the study area. The water samples were measured for pH, total dissolved solids, electrical conductivity, and salinity. Results were interpolated and displayed via a geographic information system and further analyzed by simple linear regressions between surface soil salinity and the other factors. The results show that the topsoil contaminated with salinity is typically situated in relatively low areas with shallow groundwater levels and low head gradient of groundwater. This is due to the characteristics of the soil profile and groundwater depth.     

Analysis of non climatic origins of floods in the downstream part of the Kura River,Azerbaijan

Over the past century, there is an increased contribution of non climatic factors to the flood formation processes in the Kura River. Non climatic factors of floods refer to factors that are related to reductions in channel capacity and result in floods. More recently, there are numerous non climatic factors occurring in and around the Kura River basin that have increased the frequency of floods. Sediment accumulation in the riverbed over a long period of time has led to the reduction of channel capacity and has raised the elevation of the riverbed above the surrounding territory. It is illustrated that construction of dykes and levees do not actually prevent flooding, where hydrologic connections between groundwater and surface water are high, since infiltrated waters from channel results in raising of ground waters, causing an effect of “underground flood.” Since underground floods occur when water going from channels raises the level of ground waters, there is an urgent need to carefully investigate the groundwater–surface water connections. With the purpose of predicting floods, the authors suggest defining maximal acceptable flows (MAFs) rather than channel capacities. Results show that high rates of hydraulic conductivity of soils will decrease MAF rates. MAF computations before high-water season allow for further regulation of outlets further downstream in order to prevent flooding and enable flood forecasting. While the study focuses on a specific region, the overall approach suggested is generic and may be applied elsewhere.     

Oxygen isotope composition of annually banded modern and mid-Holocene travertine and evidence of paleomonsoon floods, Grand Canyon, Arizona, USA

Holocene and modern travertine formed in spring-fed Havasu Creek of the Grand Canyon, Arizona, was studied to determine the factors governing its oxygen-isotope composition. Analysis of substrate-grown travertine indicates that calculated calcite-formation temperatures compare favorably with measured water temperatures, and include silt-rich laminae deposited by monsoon-driven floods. Ancient spring-pool travertine is dated by U-series at 7380 ± 110 yr and consists of 14 travertine-silt couplets of probable annual deposition. One hundred eighty high-resolution δ¹⁸O analyses of this mid-Holocene sample average −11.0‰ PDB. The average value for modern travertine is 0.5‰ lower, perhaps because mid-Holocene temperature was higher or there was proportionally greater summer recharge. δ¹⁸O cyclicity in the mid-Holocene travertine has average amplitude of 1.9 ± 0.5‰ PDB, slightly less than the inferred modern-day annual temperature range of Havasu Creek. The annual temperature range might have been reduced during the 14-yr interval compared to present, although other non-temperature factors could account for the muted annual variation. Silt-rich laminae within isotopically lower calcite in the modern and mid-Holocene travertine verifies the seasonal resolution of both samples, and suggests that similar temperature-precipitation conditions, as well as monsoon-generated summer floods, prevailed in the mid-Holocene as they do throughout the Grand Canyon region today.     

岷江上游地质灾害发育分布规律初探

岷江上游地区现有地质灾害284处,主要发育于低山、中山、高山区,其发育面密度分别为7.3个/100km²、2.3个/100km²和0.64个/100km²,分别占全区地质灾害总数的6.7%、70.7%和20.8%。通过对地质灾害点的统计分析研究,找出岷江上游流域地质灾害的主控因素及其发育分布规律,为流域经济可持续发展和减灾防灾规划提供科学依据。     

新疆塔里木河流域洪水过程集聚性及低频气候影响

运用Cox回归模型、月频率法以及离散指数法,研究了新疆塔里木河（塔河）流域8个水文站点POT抽样和5个区域洪水序列时间集聚性特征以及受低频气候变化的影响。结果表明:受气候变化的影响,塔河流域洪水序列呈现显著集聚性特征,洪水发生频率高的时期往往也是大量级洪峰集中发生的时期,这是塔河流域洪灾损失居高不下的主要原因;Cox回归模型拟合的气候指标系数值为正值的站点和区域,气候指标正相位导致相同超过概率的洪水发生时间提前,而相同发生时间的洪水发生超过概率降低,气候指标值为负值时则相反;塔河流域大部分水文站点和区域洪水发生的超过概率均对气候指标变化有较好响应,这一现象有利于塔河流域洪水风险控制与洪灾管理;塔河流域站点洪水序列多无年际集聚性现象,而区域洪水序列的年际集聚性特征显著。     

变化环境下城市洪水演变驱动机理 ——以北京市温榆河为例

气候变化和人类活动被认为是城市洪水演变的主要驱动因素,不同区域气候变化和城市化对洪水演变的影响不尽相同,科学识别城市洪水演变的关键驱动要素、量化气候变化与城市化对城市流域洪水演变的影响是城市洪水管理的重要依据。本文以高度城市化的北京市温榆河流域为例,以季节降雨量、气温、流域前期湿度、不透水面积比及流域内地下水埋深作为潜在驱动要素,对温榆河夏季不同概率的洪水建立GAMLSS模型,分析探讨城市流域洪水演变的主要驱动机制。研究结果表明:温榆河流域夏季不同概率的洪水在研究期均呈现出非一致性特性;城市不透水面积的扩张和降水是温榆河流域夏季洪水变化的主要驱动要素,不同等级洪水的变化具有不同的驱动机制,高于概率70%的小洪水的变化主要受到流域下垫面变化的影响,而小于概率45%的低频洪水的变化主要受降水的影响。     

Geochemistry of the Archean Kam Group, Yellowknife Greenstone Belt, Slave Province, Canada

The geochemistry and isotope systematics of Archean greenstone belts provide important constraints on the origin of the volcanic rocks and tectonic models for the evolution of Archean cratons. The Kam Group is a approximately 10-km-thick pile of submarine, tholeiitic mafic, and subordinate felsic volcanic rocks erupted between 2712 and 2701 Ma that forms the bulk of the Yellowknife greenstone belt in the dominantly granite-metasedimentary Slave Province. Mafic rocks range from Normal-mid-ocean range basalt-like basalts to slightly light-rare-earth-element-enriched (LREE-enriched) but Nb-depleted basaltic andesites and andesites, whereas dacitic to rhyodacitic felsic rocks are strongly LREE-enriched and highly depleted in Nb. The varepsilonTNd range from +5 to -3 in the mafic to intermediate rocks and from 0 to -5.5 in the felsic rocks. The varepsilonTNd decreases with increasing La/Sm, SiO2 and decreasing Nb/La, suggesting that as the mafic magmas evolved they were contaminated by older basement rocks. Gneissic granitoids >2.9 Ga in age, found at the base of the Kam Group, have varepsilonTNd between -6 and -9 and are excellent candidates for the contaminant. The geochemical and isotopic data, combined with the submarine eruptive setting and field evidence for existing continental basement, support a continental margin rift model for the Kam Group. Similar geochemical-isotopic studies are required on other Slave greenstone belts in order to test evolutionary models for the Slave Province.     

黄河下游高含沙洪水过程一维水沙耦合数学模型

采用浑水控制方程,建立了基于耦合解法的一维非恒定非均匀沙数学模型,用于模拟高含沙洪水演进时的河床冲淤过程.然后采用黄河下游游荡段1977年7—8月实测高含沙洪水资料对该模型进行率定,基于水沙耦合解法的各水文断面流量、总含沙量及分组含沙量的计算过程与实测过程符合更好,计算的沿程最高水位及累计河段冲淤量与实测值也较为符合.最后还采用2004年8月高含沙洪水资料对该模型进行了验证.模型率定及验证计算结果表明,采用一维水沙耦合模型计算高含沙洪水过程,能取得较高的精度.     

论长江流域河湖体系演化与洪灾防治

长江上游剥蚀沉积物通量是影响长江流域河湖体系平衡的最重要因素。近几十年来,不适人为的地质作用已严重影响并打破了原有的长江流域河湖体系的沉积一搬运平衡系统,主要表现在:①上游自然环境的破坏,使河湖沉积体系沉积物通量大量增加;②中下游围湖造田和不适当的人为河湖治理工程(如裁弯取直、送沙出湖等),改变了长江流域洪沙的自然分配平衡。研究表明,洞庭湖及鄱阳湖为现代构造沉降型补偿平衡盆地,沉降速率等于或略大于目前盆地范围内的沉积物平均淤积速率,具备为长江分洪滞淤的潜在沉积可容空间。长江流域河湖体系沉积平衡的恢复治理,应包括以下几个方面的措施:①整治上游,减少水土流失,减少或抑制整个河湖体系沉积物通量,减缓河湖淤积压力;②顺应长江流域河湖自然分洪分沙规律,开辟荆江南北二岸分洪分沙河道,同时开垸扩湖或湖垸置换;③疏通河道与加固垸堤并举;④上游(主、支流)建坝分洪分沙。     

The `global city' misconceived: the myth of `global management' in transnational service firms

The `global city hypothesis' proposed by Saskia Sassen - and subsequently developed by Manuel Castells and others in the theory of a globalized urban network - has in recent years formed the basis for the argument that power and control in transnational firms (TNCs) is primarily situated in global head-offices. Such offices are located in key urban centres such as London, New York or Tokyo where global managerial power is ultimately wielded and where senior managers make strategic decisions about transnational business activity. This paper takes issue with this theoretical legacy, arguing that the idea of strong centralised managerial power and control in contemporary TNCs is far more complex than this literature suggests. It explores how managerial control in some of the supposedly most globalized of business service industries - investment banking and management consultancy - cannot be understood as being centralised in global headquarter offices, and nor does it purely reside with a few senior managers at the top of the transnational organisation. Rather, it argues that managerial control in TNCs is diffused throughout a transnational network of management-level employees, and that strategic power in transnational firms resides with a larger and more dispersed group of actors than has been previously suggested. These arguments are developed through analysis of qualitative research into the managerial strategies and practices of senior business practitioners in the transnational investment banking and management consultancy industries. In presenting qualitative data from interviews with senior management in transnational corporate head offices, the paper thus examines the decision-making process of global management practice and unpacks the complex context in which transnational corporate strategy develops in such firms.