Characteristics of tropical cyclones generated in South China Sea and their landfalls over China and Vietnam

Natural Hazards - The work examines the potential causative link between the flow of charged particles that are coming from the Sun and hurricanes. For establishing eventual link, the method of...     

Experimental superensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach. A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone positions and intensity.     

Best track parameters of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: a review

India Meteorological Department has the responsibility of monitoring and prediction of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) including tropical cyclone (TC) and depression, collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to CDs and preparation of best track data over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). The process of post-season analysis of CDs to determine the best estimate of a CD??s position and intensity along with other characteristics during its lifetime is described as ??best tracking??. The best tracking procedure has undergone several changes world-over including NIO due to change in definition and classification of TCs, monitoring and analysis tools and procedure and physical understanding of TCs. There have been a few attempts to document the temporal changes in the best track procedure including changes in observational network, monitoring technique, area of responsibility for monitoring, terminology and classification of the TCs over the NIO. Hence, a study has been undertaken to review the temporal variations in all the above aspects of best tracking procedure and its impact on quality of best track parameters over the NIO. The problems and prospective with the best track data over the (NIO) have been presented and discussed. Based on quality and availability, the whole period of best track information may be broadly classified into four phases, viz. (i) pre-1877, (ii) 1877?C1890, (iii) 1891?C1960 and (iv) 1961?C2010. The period of 1961?C2010 may be further classified into (a) 1961?C1973, (b) 1974?C1990 and (c) 1991?C2010. As optimum observational network including satellite leading to better estimation of location and intensity without missing of CDs was available since 1961, the climatology of genesis, location, intensity, movement (track) and landfall can be best represented based on the data set of 1961?C2010. The best track parameters need to be reanalysed since 1891, based on the present criteria/classification of CDs to develop a digital data set of every six hourly position, intensity and other characteristics throughout the life period of each recorded CD over the NIO to meet the world standard. At least attempt should be made from 1974 when all types of major data including satellite, radar, surface and upper air observations are available for best track analysis. The reanalysis of best track parameters can help in better understanding and prediction of CDs and address the issues related to climate change aspects over the NIO region.     

The sensitivity to the microphysical schemes on the skill of forecasting the track and intensity of tropical cyclones using WRF-ARW model

The Advanced Research WRF (ARW) model is used to simulate Very Severe Cyclonic Storms (VSCS) Hudhud (7–13 October, 2014), Phailin (8–14 October, 2013) and Lehar (24–29 November, 2013) to investigate the sensitivity to microphysical schemes on the skill of forecasting track and intensity of the tropical cyclones for high-resolution (9 and 3 km) 120-hr model integration. For cloud resolving grid scale (<5 km) cloud microphysics plays an important role. The performance of the Goddard, Thompson, LIN and NSSL schemes are evaluated and compared with observations and a CONTROL forecast. This study is aimed to investigate the sensitivity to microphysics on the track and intensity with explicitly resolved convection scheme. It shows that the Goddard one-moment bulk liquid-ice microphysical scheme provided the highest skill on the track whereas for intensity both Thompson and Goddard microphysical schemes perform better. The Thompson scheme indicates the highest skill in intensity at 48, 96 and 120 hr, whereas at 24 and 72 hr, the Goddard scheme provides the highest skill in intensity. It is known that higher resolution domain produces better intensity and structure of the cyclones and it is desirable to resolve the convection with sufficiently high resolution and with the use of explicit cloud physics. This study suggests that the Goddard cumulus ensemble microphysical scheme is suitable for high resolution ARW simulation for TC’s track and intensity over the BoB. Although the present study is based on only three cyclones, it could be useful for planning real-time predictions using ARW modelling system.     

Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean

The convection and planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes play significant role in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Several convection and PBL parameterization schemes incorporate these processes in the numerical weather prediction models. Therefore, a systematic intercomparison of performance of parameterization schemes is essential to customize a model. In this context, six combinations of physical parameterization schemes (2 PBL Schemes, YSU and MYJ, and 3 convection schemes, KF, BM, and GD) of WRF-ARW model are employed to obtain the optimum combination for the prediction of TCs over North Indian Ocean. Five cyclones are studied for sensitivity experiments and the out-coming combination is tested on real-time prediction of TCs during 2008. The tracks are also compared with those provided by the operational centers like NCEP, ECMWF, UKMO, NCMRWF, and IMD. It is found that the combination of YSU PBL scheme with KF convection scheme (YKF) provides a better prediction of intensity, track, and rainfall consistently. The average RMSE of intensity (13?hPa in CSLP and 11?m?s^?1 in 10-m wind), mean track, and landfall errors is found to be least with YKF combination. The equitable threat score (ETS) of YKF combination is more than 0.2 for the prediction of 24-h accumulated rainfall up to 125?mm. The vertical structural characteristics of cyclone inner core also recommend the YKF combination for Indian seas cyclones. In the real-time prediction of 2008 TCs, the 72-, 48-, and 24-h mean track errors are 172, 129, and 155?km and the mean landfall errors are 125, 73, and 66?km, respectively. Compared with the track of leading operational agencies, the WRF model is competing in 24?h (116?km error) and 72?h (166?km) but superior in 48-h (119?km) track forecast.     

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme sea levels around the South China Sea: assessing the influence of tropical cyclones,monsoons and major climate modes

With sea levels projected to rise as a result of climate change, it is imperative to understand not only long-term average trends, but also the spatial and temporal patterns of extreme sea level. In this study, we use a comprehensive set of 30 tide gauges spanning 1954–2014 to characterize the spatial and temporal variations of extreme sea level around the low-lying and densely populated margins of the South China Sea. We also explore the long-term evolution of extreme sea level by applying a dynamic linear model for the generalized extreme value distribution (DLM-GEV), which can be used for assessing the changes in extreme sea levels with time. Our results show that the sea-level maxima distributions range from ~?90 to 400 cm and occur seasonally across the South China Sea. In general, the sea-level maxima at northern tide gauges are approximately 25–30% higher than those in the south and are highest in summer as tropical cyclone-induced surges dominate the northern signal. In contrast, the smaller signal in the south is dominated by monsoonal winds in the winter. The trends of extreme high percentiles of sea-level values are broadly consistent with the changes in mean sea level. The DLM-GEV model characterizes the interannual variability of extreme sea level, and hence, the 50-year return levels at most tide gauges. We find small but statistically significant correlations between extreme sea level and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Our study provides new insight into the dynamic relationships between extreme sea level, mean sea level and the tidal cycle in the South China Sea, which can contribute to preparing for coastal risks at multi-decadal timescales.

     

Numerical simulation of tropical cyclone thane: role of boundary layer and surface drag parameterization schemes

In the recent times, several advanced numerical models are utilized for the prediction of the intensity, track and landfall time of a cyclone. Still there are number of issues concerning their prediction and the limitation of numerical models in addressing those issues. The most pertinent question is how intensive a cyclone can become before it makes a landfall and where the cyclone moves under the ambient large-scale flow. In this paper, detailed study has been carried out using Weather Research Forecast model with two boundary schemes to address the above question by considering a recent tropical cyclone in Bay of Bengal region of North Indian Ocean. In addition, the impact of the surface drag effect on the low-level winds and the intensity of the cyclone are also studied. The result reveals that large differences are noted in the ocean surface fluxes between YSU and MYJ with MYJ producing relatively higher fluxes than YSU. It is found that the YSU scheme produced a better simulation for the THANE cyclone in terms of winds, pressure distribution and cloud fractions. Comparison with available observations indicated the characteristics of horizontal divergence, vorticity and vector track positions produced by YSU experiment are more realistic than with MYJ and other experiments. However, when the drag coefficient is changed as 0.5 or 2.0 from the default values, appreciable changes in the surface fluxes are not noticed. A maximum precipitation is reported in YSU as compared to the MYJ PBL scheme for the tropical cyclone THANE.     

Swarm intelligence and neural nets in forecasting the maximum sustained wind speed along the track of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal

Tropical cyclones are well-known extreme weather and the cause of considerable damages, injuries and loss of life. The assessment of the maximum sustained wind speed along the track of the tropical cyclones is very important for estimating the strength of the cyclones. The swarm intelligence in the form of ant colony optimization (ACO) technique is introduced in this study to compute the pheromone deposition along the track of tropical cyclones followed by neural nets to forecast the maximum sustained wind speed of the cyclones occurring over the Bay of Bengal of North Indian Ocean. The ACO is a nonlinear problem-based meta-heuristic optimization method for finding approximate solutions to discrete optimization problems and simulates the decision-making processes of ant colony similar to other adaptive learning techniques. The method has shown its application potential in various fields including the prediction of monsoon rainfall. In this study, the amount of pheromone deposition during the successive stages of the cyclones has been estimated. A range of minimum central pressure (MCP), central pressure drop (PD), maximum sustained wind speed (MSWS) and intensity (T-No) associated with the cyclones of Bay of Bengal are utilized to form the input matrix of the neural nets. The neural nets are trained to forecast the maximum sustained wind speed along the track of the tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal. The result reveals that the errors in forecasting the MSWS along the track of tropical cyclones with 6, 12, 18 and 24 h lead time are 2.6, 2.9, 3.1 and 4.8, respectively. The result is compared with the existing dynamical, statistical and adaptive models to evaluate the skill of the present model. The result is well validated with observation.     

Characteristics of tropical cyclones in China and their impacts analysis

This paper discusses the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) based on available data from 1951 to 2008, including the frequency of TC generation in the Western North Pacific (WNP) and those which make landfall in China. The impacts of TCs on both human and economic losses for the period 1983–2008 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the generation of TCs in the WNP since the 1980s, but the number of TCs making landfall has remained constant or shown only a slight decreasing trend. The number of casualties caused by TCs in China appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of economic loss is increasing significantly. These results can be attributed to increased natural disaster prevention and mitigation efforts by the Chinese government in recent years, and also reflect the rapid economic development in China particularly in TC-prone areas.     

南海北部陆架西区磷灰石裂变径迹的分析

文中将磷灰石裂变径迹分析用于南海北部陆架西区地热演化研究,报道了位于北部湾盆地、莺琼盆地和珠三拗陷的３口钻井１３个样品磷灰石径迹的测定结果,并依之研究了乌１６－１－２井与莺１井的热演化史的片断,得出乌１６－１－２井区在３０Ｍａ以来地温演化是平稳的,未受过重大热事件的扰动,而莺１井区则曾经历过抬升事件的论断。对所得结论借助于径迹理论模型计算予以检验,肯定了径迹分析用于南海陆架盆地热演化研究的意义,指出在采取岩样问题上有待改进之处。     

南海海-气通量交换研究进展

1998年的"南海季风试验(SCSMEX)"已经过去10年了,SCSMEX启动的南海海-气通量试验研究也有10个年头.在SCSMEX和国家自然科学基金面上项目"南海季风爆发期近海面层通量观测和湍流结构的观测研究"支持下,10年来在西沙实施了3次(1998年、2000年、2002年)海-气通量观测试验,开展了试验资料分析研究,重点是西南季风爆发前后海-气通量交换过程研究,辐射通量、感热通量、潜热通量、动量通量随天气条件的变化研究,海-气通量日变化,通量交换系数以及通量变化对低层大气、上层海洋的影响研究.对10年来南海通量研究作一回顾,对未来的通量观测研究计划特别是2008"亚洲季风年"西沙通量观测提出一些建议.     

南海海—气通量交换研究进展

1998年的“南海季风试验（SCSMEX）”已经过去10年了,SCSMEX启动的南海海—气通量试验研究也有10个年头。在SCSMEX和国家自然科学基金面上项目“南海季风爆发期近海面层通量观测和湍流结构的观测研究”支持下,10年来在西沙实施了3次（1998年、2000年、2002年）海—气通量观测试验,开展了试验资料分析研究,重点是西南季风爆发前后海—气通量交换过程研究,辐射通量、感热通量、潜热通量、动量通量随天气条件的变化研究,海—气通量日变化,通量交换系数以及通量变化对低层大气、上层海洋的影响研究。对10年来南海通量研究作一回顾,对未来的通量观测研究计划特别是2008“亚洲季风年”西沙通量观测提出一些建议。     

南海北部活动构造及其对天然气水合物的影响

海底天然气水合物与活动构造关系极为密切,随着近十几年来海底天然气水合物勘探与研究取得的重要进展,相关活动构造也正在逐渐受到关注。通过对断裂、地震、气底辟以及海底火山活动等构造活动的多种表现形式的研究,分析了南海北部活动构造的特征。在南海北部,存在北东向、北东东-东西向、北西向3组活动断裂,其中北西向断裂切割其他两组,形成最晚。这些活动断裂以继承性为主,北东向和北东东向断裂均为切割地壳或岩石圈的大断裂。南海北部的震中呈带状分布,在东部呈北东走向,而西部受红河走滑断裂的影响,震中整体为北西走向分布。气底辟是对天然气水合物形成有重要指示意义的构造,同断裂一样,气底辟为气源垂直向上移动至形成水合物的温压带提供了良好的通道。南海北部分布的火山岩由东到西顺时针旋转。从地震剖面可以看出,岩体明显受张性断裂控制。东部天然气水合物的分布受北西向活动断层的影响较大,而西部则与海底滑坡密不可分。     

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensification to boundary layer and convective processes

This study examines the role of the parameterization of convection, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and explicit moisture processes on tropical cyclone intensification. A high-resolution mesoscale model, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) model MM5, with two interactive nested domains at resolutions 90 km and 30 km was used to simulate the Orissa Super cyclone, the most intense Indian cyclone of the past century. The initial fields and time-varying boundary variables and sea surface temperatures were taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) (FNL) one-degree data set. Three categories of sensitivity experiments were conducted to examine the various schemes of PBL, convection and explicit moisture processes. The results show that the PBL processes play crucial roles in determining the intensity of the cyclone and that the scheme of Mellor-Yamada (MY) produces the strongest cyclone. The combination of the parameterization schemes of MY for planetary boundary layer, Kain-Fritsch2 for convection and Mixed-Phase for explicit moisture produced the best simulation in terms of intensity and track. The simulated cyclone produced a minimum sea level pressure of 930 hPa and a maximum wind of 65 m s⁻¹ as well as all of the characteristics of a mature tropical cyclone with an eye and eye-wall along with a warm core structure. The model-simulated precipitation intensity and distribution were in good agreement with the observations. The ensemble mean of all 12 experiments produced reasonable intensity and the best track.     

Optimistic bias and the consistency of hurricane track forecasts

Forecast graphics depicting a hurricane track and uncertainty cone have become pervasive in the communication of hurricane risk. This study examined whether the effect of hurricane tracks on risk perception is influenced by the consistency and optimistic bias. Specifically, it focused on the differences between forecasts that remain consistent compared to those that veer away for a forecast period. To answer the research question, this study conducted online surveys in which respondents from two coastal universities were asked risk perception questions based on a series of forecast graphics. Other variables measured included dispositional optimism, general hurricane risk perception, and hurricane information use. Optimistic bias was calculated from two of the risk perception questions. Results did not indicate strong support for an influence of optimistic bias or changing forecast track on risk perception. There was limited evidence that a veering track scenario may lead to differences in risk judgments about another location, but most measures of personal risk estimation were not influenced by the track. Dispositional optimism was not related to optimistic bias or many of the risk perception variables tested, including general hurricane risk perception. There did appear to be an interaction between track scenario and optimistic bias with more relationships being significant among those who received the consistent track scenario.     

南海礼乐盆地新生代构造层序界面特征及油气地质意义

礼乐盆地是中国南海深水领域一个重要的含油气盆地,具有较好的油气资源前景。应用沉积学和层序地层学的原理和方法,结合区域构造演化特征,详细研究了礼乐盆地新生代沉积充填过程中关键构造层序界面（S100、S70、S50）在钻井岩性、测井曲线、古生物及地震剖面上的特征。结果表明,构造层序界面为岩性、电性的突变面,在构造层序界面附近,古生物演化过程中存在标志生物种属和数量的突变。在地震剖面上,构造层序界面是区域性的不整合界面,表现为明显的上超、下超或削截特征。进而详细论述了这3个构造层序界面形成的油气地质意义,具体表现为：（1）反映了关键时期礼乐盆地性质的转化;（2）有利于形成优质储集空间;（3）层序不整合面既是油气横向长距离运移的重要通道,也是礼乐盆地油气藏成藏的关键。     

华南二叠－三叠系的事件地层与生物地层界线

华南二叠－三叠系界线研究应严格区分事件地层界线与生物地层界线。“界线粘土”层的底界即为事件地层界线。生物地层界线定义不能与“混生层”或“过渡层”的概念连在一起。长兴煤山忠心大队剖面是最好的二叠－三叠系全球界线层型剖面点（ＧＳＳＰ）。二叠－三叠系生物地层界线定义为ＨｉｎｄｅｏｄｕｓｐａｒｖｕｓＭｏｒｐｈｏｔｙｐｅ１的首次出现,其位置就在长兴剖面界线层（混生层）２的内部,比事件地层界线高１５ｃｍ。ＨｉｎｄｅｏｄｕｓｐａｒｖｕｓＭｏｒｐｈｏｔｙｐｅ１的首次出现,即为长兴阶的顶界。     

华南二叠－三叠系的事件地层与生物地层界线

华南二叠－三叠系界线研究应严格区分事件地层界线与生物地层界线。“界线粘土”层的底界即为事件地层界线。生物地层界线定义不能与“混生层”或“过渡层”的概念连在一起。长兴煤山忠心大队剖面是最好的二叠－三叠系全球界线层型剖面点（ＧＳＳＰ）。二叠－三叠系生物地层界线定义为ＨｉｎｄｅｏｄｕｓｐａｒｖｕｓＭｏｒｐｈｏｔｙｐｅ１的首次出现,其位置就在长兴剖面界线层（混生层）２的内部,比事件地层界线高１５ｃｍ。ＨｉｎｄｅｏｄｕｓｐａｒｖｕｓＭｏｒｐｈｏｔｙｐｅ１的首次出现,即为长兴阶的顶界。     

东南沿海及南海新生代火山作用与南海的形成演化

中国东南沿海地区和南海海域新生代火山岩系列、类型和SrNd同位素特征十分相似,具有板内玄武岩的特征。根据南海扩张时代,将新生代的火山岩划分为扩张期前、扩张期和扩张期后3大阶段,并利用原生岩浆推导了软流圈岩石圈的一些深部作用特征。扩张期前（接近扩张期）和扩张期软流圈顶部埋深较浅。从扩张期前（接近扩张期）到扩张期软流圈顶部埋深变浅,隙间熔浆增加,原生岩浆的演化具有前进式裂谷火山作用的演化序列,岩石圈扩张速率变大。从扩张期到扩张期后（直至第四纪）,软流圈顶部埋深逐渐变深,隙间熔浆减少,原生岩浆的演化表现出后退式裂谷火山作用的序列,岩石圈扩张速率逐渐变慢。新生代火山作用显示出的深部作用特征与南海的扩张和闭合一致,这为我们提供了南海形成和演化的深部作用证据。