Variability of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India) of the period 1870–2014 and its relation to sea surface temperature

Monsoon onset over Kerala (India) which occurs every year is a major climatic phenomenon that involves large scale changes in wind, rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST). Over the last 150 years, the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (DMOK) has varied widely, the earliest being 11 May, 1918 and the most delayed being 18 June, 1972. DMOK has a long term (1870–2014) mean of 01 June and standard deviation of 7–8 days. We have studied the inter-annual and decadal time scale variability of DMOK and their relation with SST. We found that SST anomalies of large spatial scale similar to those in El Nino/La Nina are associated with the inter-annual variability in DMOK. Indian Ocean between latitudes \(5^{\circ }\hbox {S}\) and \(20^{\circ }\hbox {N}\) has two episodes of active convection associated with monsoon onset over Kerala (MOK), one around DMOK and the other about six weeks earlier (called pre-monsoon rain peak or bogus monsoon onset) and in between a two week period of suppressed convection occurs over north Indian Ocean. A prominent decadal time scale variability was found in DMOK having large and statistically significant linear correlation with the SST gradient across the equator over Indian and Pacific oceans, the large correlation persisting for several months prior to the MOK. However, no linear trend was seen in DMOK during the long period from 1870 to 2014.     

Pressure–temperature-deformation history for a part of the Mesoproterozoic fold belt in North Singhbhum,Eastern India

The supracrustal rocks in the easternmost part of the Proterozoic fold belt of North Singhbhum, eastern India, are folded into a series of large upright folds with variable plunges. The regional schistosity is axial–planar to the folds. The folds were produced by a second phase of deformation (D2) and were preceded by D1 deformation, which gave rise to isoclinal folds (mapped outside the study area) and the locally preserved, bedding-parallel schistosity. A shearing deformation during D2 was responsible for the sheath-like geometry of a major fold. The axial planes were curved by D3 warping. The first metamorphic episode (M1) of low-pressure type produced andalusite porphyroblasts prior to, or in the early stage of, D1 deformation. The main metamorphism (M2), responsible for the formation of chloritoid, kyanite, garnet and staurolite porphyroblasts, was late- to post-D2 in occurrence. The Staurolite isograd separates two zonal assemblages recorded in the high-alumina and the low-alumina pelitic schists. Geothermobarometric calculations indicate the peak metamorphic temperature to be 550 °C at 5.5 kb. Fluid composition in the rocks before and during M2 metamorphism was buffered and fluid influx, if any, was not extensive enough to overcome the buffering capacity of the rocks. From M1 to M2, the P–T path is found to have a clockwise trajectory, that is consistent with a tectonic model involving initial asthenospheric upwelling and rifting, followed by compressional deformation leading to loading and heating.     

Trend analysis of rainfall pattern over the Central India during 1901–2010

In the present study, trends of rainfall of the Central India were evaluated in monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales using the Revised Mann-Kendall (RMK) test, Sen’s slope estimator, and innovative trend method (ITM). For this purpose, the monthly rainfall data for 20 stations in Madhya Pradesh (MP) and Chhattisgarh (CG) states in Central India during 1901–2010 was used. The Sen’s slope estimator was utilized for calculating the slope of rainfall trend line. Based on the obtained results of RMK test, there is no significant trend in the stations for the January and October months. The results also showed that for MP, two out of 15 considered stations indicate significant annual trend, while the CG has four out of five stations with significant trend. The results of applying ITM test indicated that most of the stations have decreasing trends in annual (16 stations), summer (16 stations), and monsoon (11 stations) seasons, while the winter (12 stations) and post monsoon (11 stations) seasons generally show increasing trend. Unlike the RMK, the ITM shows significant increasing trend in rainfall of November and December months. The finding of current study can be used for irrigation and water resource management purpose over the Central India.     

Spatial–temporal patterns of cloud-to-ground lightning over the northwest Iberian Peninsula during the period 2010–2015

The spatial–temporal patterns of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning covering the period 2010–2015 over the northwest Iberian Peninsula were investigated. The analysis conducted employed three main methods: the circulation weather types developed by Jenkinson and Collison, the fit of a generalized additive model (GAM) for geographic variables, and the use of a concentration index for the ratio of lightning strikes and thunderstorm days. The main activity in the summer months can be attributed to situations with eastern or anticyclonic flow due to convection by insolation. In winter, lightning proves to have a frontal origin and is mainly associated with western or cyclonic flow situations which occur with advections of air masses of maritime origin. The largest number of CG discharges occurs under eastern flow and their hybrids with anticyclonic situations. Thunderstorms with greater CG lightning activity, highlighted by a higher concentration index, are located in areas with a higher density of lightning strikes, above all in mountainous areas away from the sea. The modeling of lightning density with geographic variables shows the positive influence of altitude and, particularly, distance to the sea, with nonlinear relationships due to the complex orography of the region. Likewise, areas with convex topography receive more lightning strikes than concave ones, a relation which has been demonstrated for the first time from a GAM.     

Some regional indicators of the Tertiary–Quaternary geodynamics in the paleocoastal part of the Bengal basin (India)

Sedimentary processes in the paleocoastal part of the Bengal basin that occured in the Tertiary and Quaternary have been addressed. Three indicators were used: sedimentary bedding forms, microstructure of the sediment, and trace fossils. Various forms of sedimentary structures developed under the influence of dynamic geomorphic processes in the study area in the Quaternary. The microstructure analysis of the sedimentary materials was made by two methods: microphotography and Digital Color Analysis (DCA). The microstructure analysis shows that the geomorphic process remained very dynamic in the Quaternary, influencing the form, thickness, and mineral composition of the sediment strata. The enrichment of the sediments in heavy minerals evidences either oscillating or combined flow sedimentation, while under stable conditions light-mineral deposition took place. The digital data of microfabric study by the DCA method also show that larger particles deposited in the oscillating or high-flow environment and evidence a greater amount of heavy minerals like ferruginous materials. Trace fossils found in the sediments of this area also strongly support the concept that the environment remained dynamic during the Tertiary and Quaternary. The Late Tertiary deposition shows that, during these periods, the sediments were transported from tide-dominated marine coast with low flow energy, which is typical of hot and humid conditions. From Late Tertiary to Early Quaternary, the macrotidal coast became mesotidal (wave-dominated). The second phase is the Middle Pleistocene, when the environment was stable, favoring the continuous deposition of finer particles under low- to medium-flow energy conditions. The third phase, the Recent, is marked by the shoreline shift and modification of the environment. In the Early–Middle Holocene, the shoreline started to shift, which modified the geomorphic conditions of this place from coastal to estuarine and, finally, inland fluvial.     

Statistically downscaled climate change projections of surface temperature over Northern Italy for the periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099

Future changes of seasonal minimum and maximum temperature over Northern Italy are assessed for the periods 2021–2050 and 2070–2099 against 1961–1990. A statistical downscaling technique, applied to the ENSEMBLES-Stream1 and CIRCE global simulations (A1B scenario), is used to reach this objective. The statistical scheme consists of a multivariate regression based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. The set-up of the statistical scheme is done using large-scale fields (predictors) derived from ERA40 reanalysis and seasonal mean minimum and maximum temperature (predictands) derived from observational data at around 75 stations, distributed over Northern Italy, over the period 1960–2002. A similar technique is also applied to the number of frost days and ice days at a reduced number of stations in order to construct projections on change of the selected extreme temperature indices for the two future periods. The evaluation of future projections for these extreme indices is relevant due to its impacts on transports, health, and agriculture. The downscaling scheme constructed using observed data is then applied to large-scale fields simulated by global models (A1B scenario), in order to construct scenarios on future change of seasonal temperature, mean and extreme indices, at local scale. The significance of changes is tested from the statistical point of view. The results show that significant increases could be expected to occur under scenario conditions in both minimum and maximum temperature, associated with a decrease in the number of frost and ice days in both periods and more intense to the end of the century.     

Analysis of Trends in Aridity Changes for the Southern Ural Region over the Period 1960–2019 Using Various Methods

Doklady Earth Sciences - A statistical analysis of extreme episodes of aridity and humidity for the territory of the Southern Urals was performed. The calculations were based on the average daily...     

Remote sensing-based analysis of the planform changes in the Upper Amazon River over the period 1986–2006

An analysis of the planform changes of the Colombian reach of the Amazon River was carried out over a period of 19.9 years. Remote sensing image processing techniques were applied to Landsat images acquired in 1986, 1994, 2001 and, 2006. These images were selected based on minimal daily water level variations, while providing the widest temporal span. Plan view river changes and geomorphologic characteristics were examined to identify which channel pattern classification best represents this large tropical river system. Discharge was also analyzed to determine whether changes in the river's plan view are a direct response to variations in discharge. The system had a depositional tendency between 1986 and 2006, with a period where erosion was more intense than deposition between 1994 and 2001. Percent change in the plan view area of the system (1.4% yr⁻¹) and the maximum migration rates (125 m yr⁻¹) suggest that this reach of the Amazon is less active than reaches upstream and the downstream reach between the confluences of the Jutaí and Japurá Rivers. Variations in discharge appear to be responsible for deposition and erosion dynamics observed after this remote sensing analysis in the Colombian reach of the Amazon River. Characteristics including multiple channels with vegetated islands developed from within-channel deposition, meandering planform, lateral activity of channel margins, and the absence of islands with saucer-like morphology suggest a multichannel, meandering pattern for this reach of the Amazon, that corresponds to a laterally active anabranching river.     

Mapping the sub-trappean Mesozoic sediments in the western part of Narmada–Tapti region of Deccan Volcanic Province,India

Deccan Traps spread over large parts of south, west and central India, possibly hiding underneath sediments with hydrocarbon potential. Here, we present the results of seismic refraction and wide-angle reflection experiments along three profiles, and analyze them together the results from all other refraction profiles executed earlier in the western part of Narmada–Tapti region of the Deccan Volcanic Province (DVP). We employ travel time modelling to derive the granitic basement configuration, including the overlying Trap and sub-trappean sediment thickness, if any. Travel time skips and amplitude decay in the first arrival refraction data are indicative of the presence of low velocity sediments (Mesozoic), which are the low velocity zones (LVZ) underneath the Traps. Reflection data from the top of LVZ and basement along with the basement refraction data have been used to derive the Mesozoic sediment thickness.In the middle and eastern parts of the study region between Narmada and Tapti, the Mesozoic sediment thickness varies between 0.5 and 2.0 km and reaches more than 2.5 km south of Sendhwa between Narmada and Tapti Rivers. Thick Mesozoic sediments in the eastern parts are also accompanied by thick Traps. The Mesozoic sediments along the present three profiles may not be much prospective in terms of its thickness, except inside the Cambay basin, where the subtrappean sediment thickness is about 1000–1500 m. In the eastern part of the study area, the deepest section (>4 km) has thick (∼2 km) Mesozoic sediments, but with almost equally thick Deccan Trap cover. Results of the present study provide important inputs for future planning for hydrocarbon exploration in this region.     

PAHs contamination in groundwater from a part of metropolitan city,India: a study based on sampling over a 10-year period

Presence of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the soil and water is of serious environmental concern as they are carcinogenic in nature. The present study was carried out with an aim to identify the presence of PAHs in groundwater of Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India. This is an industrialised area where petrochemical storage tanks are located. Groundwater sampling was carried out in the years 2001, 2011 and 2012 to understand the variation in PAHs content in this area. Concentration of major ions, pH and EC were measured during the year 2001. Of the 24 groundwater samples collected in the year 2001, most of them were alkaline and 62.5 % were not permissible for drinking based on pH and EC, respectively. Influence of seawater was the major reason for the Na–Cl dominant nature of groundwater. TPH and PAHs analysis of groundwater carried out in 2001 and 2011, and physical examination of groundwater in 2012 indicate the increased level of contamination in the eastern part of the study area. The contamination in the eastern part persists because of the fact that groundwater is flowing towards the east and also due to the presence of petrochemical storage tanks near the coast. Thus this area is affected by PAHs pollution which has endured over the past 50 years. An underground storage tank that was functioning in this area was closed about 50 years ago and leakage of PAHs from this tank was reported in the year 1993. However, the present study indicates the decrease in the area of zone of pollution, possibly due to natural flushing of groundwater zone.     

A review of the pressure–temperature–time evolution of the Limpopo Belt: Constraints for a tectonic model

Published literature argues that the Limpopo Belt can be subdivided into three zones, each with a distinctive geological character and tectono-metamorphic fingerprint. There are currently two contrasting schools of thought regarding the tectono-metamorphic evolution of the CZ. One camp argues that geochronological, structural and prograde pressure–temperature (P–T) evidence collectively indicate that the CZ underwent tectono-metamorphism at ca. 2.0 Ga which followed a clockwise P–T evolution during a transpressive orogeny that was initiated by the collision of the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe cratons. Deformation and metamorphism consistent with this scenario are observed in the southern part of the NMZ but are curiously absent from the whole of the SMZ. The opposing view argues that the peak metamorphism associated with the collision of the Kaapvaal and Zimbabwe cratons occurred at ca. 2.6 Ga and the later metamorphic event is an overprint associated with reactivation along Archean shear zones. Post-peak-metamorphic conditions, which at present cannot be convincingly related to either a ca. 2.6 or 2.0 Ga event in the CZ reveal contrasting retrograde paths implying either near-isothermal decompression and isobaric cooling associated with a ‘pop-up’ style of exhumation or steady decompression–cooling linked to exhumation controlled by erosion. Recent data argue that the prograde evolution of the ca. 2.0 Ga event is characterised by isobaric heating prior to decompression–cooling. Contrasting P–T paths indicate that either different units exist within the CZ that underwent different P–T evolutions or that some P–T work is erroneous due to the application of equilibrium thermobarometry to mineral assemblages that are not in equilibrium. The morphology of the P–T path(s) for the ca. 2.6–2.52 Ga event are also a matter of dispute. Some workers have postulated an anticlockwise P–T evolution during this period whilst others regard this metamorphic event as following a clockwise evolution. Granitoid magmatism is broadly contemporaneous in all three zones at ca. 2.7–2.5 suggesting a possible causal geodynamic link. P–T contrasts between and within the respective zones prevent, at present, the construction of a coherent and inter-related tectonic model that can account for all of the available evidence. Detailed and fully-integrated petrological and geochronological studies are required to produce reliable P–T–t paths that may resolve some of these pertinent issues.     

Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm for prediction of maximum and minimum temperature over Indian Himalaya

Maximum and minimum temperatures are used in avalanche forecasting models for snow avalanche hazard mitigation over Himalaya. The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based avalanche forecasting system for Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum temperatures for Kanzalwan in Pir-Panjal range and Drass in Great Himalayan range with a lead time of two days. The HMMs have been developed using meteorological variables collected from these stations during the past 20 winters from 1992 to 2012. The meteorological variables have been used to define observations and states of the models and to compute model parameters (initial state, state transition and observation probabilities). The model parameters have been used in the Forward and the Viterbi algorithms to generate temperature forecasts. To improve the model forecasts, the model parameters have been optimised using Baum–Welch algorithm. The models have been compared with persistence forecast by root mean square errors (RMSE) analysis using independent data of two winters (2012–13, 2013–14). The HMM for maximum temperature has shown a 4–12% and 17–19% improvement in the forecast over persistence forecast, for day-1 and day-2, respectively. For minimum temperature, it has shown 6–38% and 5–12% improvement for day-1 and day-2, respectively.     

Tectonic and lithologic control over landslide activity within the Larji–Kullu Tectonic Window in the Higher Himalayas of India

The purpose of this study is to analyze and characterize recent landslide events in the Larji–Kullu Tectonic Window (LKTW), and to establish a relationship between the tectonic and lithologic characters of the terrain and the landslides activity. Using multispectral satellite image analysis with selected field investigation, a landslide occurrence database has been generated for the period between 1984 and 2015. To decipher the accelerated occurrences of landslides in the region, an integrated study is undertaken in the Kullu (also known as Kulu) valley of Beas River basin within the LKTW complex, to analyze the litho-structural and terrain slope interactions using morpho-tectonic parameters such as Topographic/Bedding Plane Interaction Angle (TOBIA) index, terrain surface roughness index and lithological competency analysis. A prominent clustering of landslides is observed in the north of Sainj River, contained within the tectonic window. Major sites of landslides are found to be located in the intensely fractured Manikaran Quartzite occurring within the core of the LKTW. The landslides are mostly associated with southern and southwestern-facing slopes and activations are pronounced in the ‘Orthoclinal’ slope class with gradient of 37°–48°. Thematic maps, e.g., geological, structural, geomorphological, slope and slope-aspect maps are generated and considered together to understand the morpho-tectonic scenario of the tectonic window. Observations from the above-stated thematic maps along with the occurrences of moderate magnitude earthquake epicenters helped to infer neotectonic movements along the Sainj River fault. Tectonic upliftment of the northern bank of the Sainj River along with increased precipitation through decades has resulted in recurrent landslides within the LKTW.     

Analysis of the pressure projection stabilization method for the Darcy and coupled Darcy–Stokes flows

In this paper, we systematically analyze the pressure projection stabilization method for the Darcy and coupled Darcy–Stokes flow problems in multiple dimensions. Stability results for this stabilization method are established. For the Darcy flow, optimal error estimates in the divergence norm for velocity and suboptimal error estimates in the $L^{2}$ -norm for pressure are obtained, and a superconvergence result for the pressure is derived; a local postprocessing scheme is constructed to generate optimal error estimates in the L ²-norm for pressure. For the coupled Darcy–Stokes flow, error estimates of optimal order are obtained in terms of the energy norm of velocity and pressure. Numerical results are presented to check the theory developed.     

Oxide–sulphide relationships in sodalite-bearing metasomatites of the Epembe–Swartbooisdrif Alkaline Province, north-west Namibia

The south-eastern part of Kunene Intrusive Complex (KIC), Namibia/Angola, is host to volumetrically significant, and economically important, concentrations of sodalite in the area around Swartbooisdrif, north-west Namibia. The mineralisation was formed by metasomatic exchange with carbonatites of the Epembe–Swartbooisdrif Alkaline Province. This process led to the breakdown of ore minerals initially present in various rock types of the KIC and caused the formation of new opaque phases in the sodalite-bearing metasomatites. A detailed investigation of textures and chemical compositions of the Fe–Ti oxides and sulphides has allowed evaluation of the complex ore-forming processes related to the polyphase magmatic and metasomatic history of the sodalite deposit. The predominant opaque phases in the various rock types of the KIC are ilmenite and (titano)magnetite, which are highly concentrated in the so-called magnetite plugs. It is clear from the textural evidence that most of the ilmenite and (titano)magnetite, although of orthomagmatic origin, recrystallised under subsolidus conditions. Conformably, their respective chemical compositions and phase relations represented in the system FeO–1/2Fe₂O₃–TiO₂ point to re-equilibration at temperatures below 600 °C. Ilmenite and (titano)magnetite were affected by later deformation and decomposed by various reactions, related to, or outlasting, the metasomatic process. Oxidation of ilmenite led to the formation of symplectitic aggregates of rutile and secondary magnetite. Carbonatisation of the Fe–Ti oxides produced rutile and the siderite and rhodochrosite components in ankerite. Pyrite, in part together with rutile and secondary magnetite, was formed by sulphidation of the Fe–Ti oxides. Conspicuous aggregates of granular or lamellar intergrowths of pyrite with hematite and/or magnetite are interpreted as products of contemporaneous sulphidation and oxidation of former igneous pyrrhotite. Rarely observed pyrrhotite with pentlandite lamellae is probably not an igneous relic, but was formed during the metasomatic event. Smaller amounts of chalcopyrite, bornite, digenite–chalcocite, galena, ferroan siegenite, millerite and polydymite testify to different cooling stages during or after metasomatism. Applying the phase relations in the simplified system Fe–Co–Ni–S–O, we were able to reconstruct a semi-quantitative T–f(S₂)–f(O₂) path for the ore-forming processes. Received: 22 October 1998 / Accepted: 27 October 1999     

Impact of Ganges–Brahmaputra interannual discharge variations on Bay of Bengal salinity and temperature during 1992–1999 period

This study investigates the impact of monthly Ganges–Brahmaputra river discharge variations on Bay of Bengal salinity and temperature during the period 1992–1999. The Ganges–Brahmaputra river discharge is characterized by a well-defined seasonal cycle with strong interannual variations. The highest/lowest yearly peak discharge occurs in summer 1998/summer 1992, with 1998 value amounting to twice that of 1992. This river discharge is then used to force an ocean general circulation model. Our main result is that the impact of these rivers on the variability of Bay of Bengal sea surface salinity is strong in the northern part, with excess run-off forcing fresh anomalies, and vice versa. Most of the years, the influence of the interannual variability of river discharge on the Bay salinity does not extend south of ~10°N. This stands in contrast with the available observations and is probably linked to the relatively coarse resolution of our model. However, the extreme discharge anomaly of 1998 is exported through the southern boundary of the Bay and penetrates the south-eastern Arabian Sea a few months after the discharge peak. In response to the discharge anomalies, the model simulates significant mixed-layer temperature anomalies in the northern Bay of Bengal. This has the potential to influence the climate of the area. From our conclusions, it appears necessary to use a numerical model with higher resolution (both on the horizontal and vertical) to quantitatively investigate the upper Bay of Bengal salinity structure.     

Characterization of C‐isotope variability in the Delhi Supergroup,northwestern India and the Mesoproterozoic ocean

Marine carbonate rocks of the Delhi Supergroup of northwestern India show little deviation in whole‐rock δ ¹³Ccarb and δ ¹⁸Ocarb values, which generally are around 0 and –10‰ respectively. These narrow ranges and almost constant δ ¹³Ccarb values persist despite close sampling through long sections. The data suggest that the global rate of organic carbon burial was probably constant during deposition of the Delhi Supergroup. The nearly invariant C isotopic profile of the Delhi Supergroup is similar to C isotopic profiles of Mesoproterozoic carbonates older than 1.3 Ga, as reported from different parts of world. Carbonate units on the western margin of the Delhi Supergroup however, have on average moderately positive δ ¹³C values (from 2 to +4.96‰). These high δ ¹³C carbonates may represent the Mesoproterozoic–Neoproterozoic transition (from ～1.25 to ～0.85 Ga), a period characterized by high positive δ ¹³C values globally.     

Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India during 1969–2013

Journal of Earth System Science - Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 176 stations in India from 1969 to 2013, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high...