Historical tsunami records and potential tsunami scenarios near Haikou coastal region

Historical tsunami records in the South China Sea are collected and analyzed in this paper. There have been about 54 tsunamis in the South China Sea since 1076. The impacts of the transoceanic tsunamis on the southeast coast of China are weak. However, the regional tsunamis in the South China Sea bring varying degrees of influence to the south coast of China, which occurred about 18 times. By the analysis of the potential tsunami sources in the South China Sea, numerical simulations of tsunami induced in the Manila Trench are carried out. It is found that the tsunami wave height is small near Haikou if the general earthquake tsunami occurred. But the tsunami wave height is large when a giant earthquake of M9.3 occurred. If this extreme situation arises, the impacts to the coast of Haikou will be serious.     

Integrated tsunami intensity scale based on maxima of tsunami amplitude and induced current

As with earthquakes, river floods, water waves, and wind intensities, a tsunami intensity has to be synthetic and comprehensive to be efficient. Tsunami impact is complex because the effects can be felt on the beach, on inundated areas and also at berths and anchors. Within the same local area, a tsunami may severely impact the population on the coast, while its effects may be negligible on marine bodies (boats). Most existing tsunami intensity scales are based either on water elevation or on induced currents. However, it is commonly admitted that both variables should be considered simultaneously. Several existing intensity scales were integrated and were made consistent with each other. An original intensity scale is then derived based on analysis of the interdependency between the maxima of tsunami amplitude and induced current: The dimension of the couple composed by two variables is analyzed, in particular through the derivation of a linear relationship using the long wave theory and the use of a fully nonlinear numerical experiment. Our intensity scale is particularly well adapted to numerical studies, for which the two variables are naturally derived within an entire computational grid. Once the tsunami intensity scale was set up, it was briefly applied to a particular case study: the impact of the Sumatra tsunami, dated December 26, 2004, on the coast of Sri Lanka. Indeed, the tsunami scales proposed herein represent an initial framework of study and can be further improved through new or revisited tsunami observations.

     

全球海啸地震震源机制解及海啸成因探讨

海啸作为五大海洋自然灾害之一,严重威胁着人类生命财产安全。近些年来,国内外学者对地震海啸进行了大量研究,主要针对海啸的生成、传播、爬高和淹没的数值模拟,以及古海啸沉积物进行研究,但是对于海啸地震震源机制的研究还比较欠缺,尤其是缺乏对震级小于6.5的海啸地震的研究。针对我国的地震海啸研究现状,强调震级小于6.5地震引发海啸的问题不容忽视。本文归纳整理了全球766次地震海啸,利用三角图分类基本法则对海啸地震震源机制解进行分类,并对其中341个发生在1976年后的海啸地震进行震源机制解分析,对其中633次海啸浪高进行统计学方法分析研究。本文认为逆冲型、正断型、走滑型和奇异型机制地震均能引发海啸,逆冲型地震引发的海啸占比最大,震级小于6.5级地震引发的海啸的浪高也有高达10 m的情况,也能产生巨大破坏性。逆冲型、正断型、奇异型地震可直接引起海底地形垂向变化,进而引发海啸,而走滑型地震引发海啸则可能有两种原因,一种是走滑型地震并非纯走滑型而是带有正断或逆冲分量从而引发海啸,另外一种是走滑型地震引发海底滑坡导致海底地形变化进而产生海啸。从海啸地震震源深度分析,能产生海啸的地震震源深度97%以上都是浅源地震,主要集中在30 km深度以内,但是也有中深源地震海啸。本文综合海啸地震的震源特点、我国地理位置以及以往海啸发生的情况,认为未来我国沿海地区威胁性的地震海啸主要集中在马尼拉海沟和台湾海峡区域,在今后海啸预警方面需要格外重视这些区域,通过建立完善海啸预警系统来减少损失。     

A simple model for calculating tsunami flow speed from tsunami deposits

This paper presents a simple model for tsunami sedimentation that can be applied to calculate tsunami flow speed from the thickness and grain size of a tsunami deposit (the inverse problem). For sandy tsunami deposits where grain size and thickness vary gradually in the direction of transport, tsunami sediment transport is modeled as a steady, spatially uniform process. The amount of sediment in suspension is assumed to be in equilibrium with the steady portion of the long period, slowing varying uprush portion of the tsunami. Spatial flow deceleration is assumed to be small and not to contribute significantly to the tsunami deposit. Tsunami deposits are formed from sediment settling from the water column when flow speeds on land go to zero everywhere at the time of maximum tsunami inundation. There is little erosion of the deposit by return flow because it is a slow flow and is concentrated in topographic lows. Variations in grain size of the deposit are found to have more effect on calculated tsunami flow speed than deposit thickness. The model is tested using field data collected at Arop, Papua New Guinea soon after the 1998 tsunami. Speed estimates of 14 m/s at 200 m inland from the shoreline compare favorably with those from a 1-D inundation model and from application of Bernoulli's principle to water levels on buildings left standing after the tsunami. As evidence that the model is applicable to some sandy tsunami deposits, the model reproduces the observed normal grading and vertical variation in sorting and skewness of a deposit formed by the 1998 tsunami.     

Global tsunami deposits database

The National Geophysical Data Center and co-located World Data Center for Geophysics and Marine Geology provide integrated access to historical tsunami event, deposit, and proxy data. Historical events are important for understanding the frequency and intensity of relatively recent tsunamis. Deposit data collected during post-tsunami field surveys provide information on tsunami erosion, sedimentation, flow depths, inundation, and run-up. Deposit data from prehistoric tsunami events extend the record to pre-recorded times, constrain tsunami recurrence intervals, and estimate the minimum magnitude of tsunami inundation. Proxies indicate that an event capable of producing a tsunami occurred, but are not direct evidence of a tsunami. All of these data are used to develop tsunami hazard assessments, provide guidance to warning centers, validate models, inform community preparedness efforts, and educate the public about tsunami risks.     

Community and psychological barriers to tsunami preparation

Tsunami risk was investigated as a platform for helping to understand the impact of community and psychological factors in natural disaster preparedness. Residents who lived within four meters of sea level in high and moderate tsunami risk areas of Vancouver Island were queried about possible influences on their preparation. Both community-level and psychological factors played significant roles. More community participation and fewer justifications for not preparing (the dragons of inaction) directly predicted reported preparation. The relation between sense of community and preparation was mediated by the level of community participation, and the relation between positive outcome expectancy and preparation was mediated by the dragons of inaction. Together, the resulting model accounted for 21% of the variance in reported tsunami preparation. Policy implications are discussed.

     

Diatom biostratigraphy of tsunami deposits: Examples from the 1998 Papua New Guinea tsunami

Distinctive diatom assemblages may be associated with tsunami sediments and may often contrast with the assemblages found within sediments underlying the tsunami deposit as well as those associated with the modern coastal environment. Sediments associated with the 1998 tsunami that destroyed much of the Sissano lagoon area in northern Papua New Guinea have been investigated. Surface sediments from three transects across the sediment spit near Warapu have been examined for diatom content and preservation. The preservation is variable, and the data show an, often chaotic, assemblage that can be attributed to the tsunami waves incorporating and depositing diatoms from distinctive habitat zones during their runup and subsequent backwash. The diatoms identified within the Warapu sediments indicate an origin from within the inter-tidal and offshore area rather than from the beach–sand spit complex. The sand deposits disclose a high percentage, in excess of 75%, of broken diatom valves, and a predominance of centric (circular) species due to preferential preservation. The study demonstrates that the application of diatom biostratigraphy to modern tsunami deposits can be used in conjunction with other stratigraphical lines of evidence to interpret the source and provenance of historical and palaeo-tsunami deposits.     

New type of tsunami barrier

Tsunami impact on a coast can be reduced by applying a submerged vertical barrier to reflect tsunami before the catastrophic waves are built up near the coast. However, construction of such long walls by conventional submarine technology is difficult. In this paper, the construction of extended submarine walls at a depth of between 50 and 500 m below sea level by a relatively simple and efficient technology is described. The submarine walls can consist either of high-strength steel fences with anchors or two parallel steel fences with distance holders, lowered into the sea and fixed with rocks inserted from top. Alternatively, the barriers could be built from gabions (prefabricated steel net baskets filled with rocks) and lowered into the sea. The space between these tsunami barriers and the coast can be filled with solid material, thus allowing reclamation of new land, or this gap can be used for fish farming. These barriers can contribute to preservation of beaches and natural ecosystems at the coast.     

A new tsunami runup predictor

Natural Hazards - We introduce a new parameter, tsunami runup predictor (TRP), relating the accelerating phase of the wave to the length of the beach slope over which the wave is travelling. We...     

The great 1787 Mexican tsunami

Tsunamis have proven to represent a significant hazard around the globe and there is increased awareness about their occurrence. The Pacific coast in southern México is no exception, because there is firm evidence of the effects of past large tsunamis. Here we present results from computer-aided modeling of the March 28, 1787-“San Sixto” earthquake and tsunami, and focus on the regions of Acapulco, Corralero, Jamiltepec, and Tehuantepec, located along the Guerrero-Oaxaca coast. The theoretical waveforms suggest wave heights in excess of 4 m and 18 m at specific locations in Acapulco and Corralero, respectively, and wave heights of at least 2 m at locations in Jamiltepec and Tehuantepec. From our modeling results and based on historical documents and the topography of the area, we conclude that these wave heights would have been sufficient to cause inundations that in the case of Acapulco were restricted to several meters inland, but in other areas like Corralero reached at least 6 km inland. Our results are consistent with published and unpublished damage reports that attest to the hazards associated with great earthquakes and tsunamis along the subduction zone in Mexico     

Identification of tsunami deposits considering the tsunami waveform: An example of subaqueous tsunami deposits in Holocene shallow bay on southern Boso Peninsula, Central Japan

This study proposes a tsunami depositional model based on observations of emerged Holocene tsunami deposits in outcrops located in eastern Japan. The model is also applicable to the identification of other deposits, such as those laid down by storms. The tsunami deposits described were formed in a small bay of 10–20-m water depth, and are mainly composed of sand and gravel. They show various sedimentary structures, including hummocky cross-stratification (HCS) and inverse and normal grading. Although, individually, the sedimentary structures are similar to those commonly found in storm deposits, the combination of vertical stacking in the tsunami deposits makes a unique pattern. This vertical stacking of internal structures is due to the waveform of the source tsunamis, reflecting: 1) extremely long wavelengths and wave period, and 2) temporal changes of wave sizes from the beginning to end of the tsunamis.

The tsunami deposits display many sub-layers with scoured and graded structures. Each sub-layer, especially in sandy facies, is characterized by HCS and inverse and normal grading that are the result of deposition from prolonged high-energy sediment flows. The vertical stack of sub-layers shows incremental deposition from the repeated sediment flows. Mud drapes cover the sub-layers and indicate the existence of flow-velocity stagnant stages between each sediment flow. Current reversals within the sub-layers indicate the repeated occurrence of the up- and return-flows.

The tsunami deposits are vertically divided into four depositional units, Tna to Tnd in ascending order, reflecting the temporal change of wave sizes in the tsunami wave trains. Unit Tna is relatively fine-grained and indicative of small tsunami waves during the early stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnb is a protruding coarse-grained and thickest-stratified division and is the result of a relatively large wave group during the middle stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnc is a fine alternation of thin sand sheets and mud drapes, deposited from waning waves during the later stage of the tsunami. Unit Tnd is deposited during the final stage of the tsunami and is composed mainly of suspension fallout. Cyclic build up of these sub-layers and depositional units cannot be explained by storm waves with short wave periods of several to ten seconds common in small bays.     

Contamination of tsunami sediments in a coastal zone inundated by the 26 December 2004 tsunami in Thailand

Tsunami sediments deposited in a coastal zone of Thailand by the 26 December 2004 tsunami wave were sampled within 50 days after the event. All surface and ground waters in tsunami- inundated zone revealed significant salinity at that time. The tsunami sediments, composed mainly of fine to medium sand, contain significantly elevated contents of salts (Na⁺, K⁺, Ca⁺², Mg⁺², Cl and SO ₄ ⁻² ) in water-soluble fraction, and of Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb in the bioavailable fraction and As in the exchangeable fraction in relation to the reference sample. The origin of contaminants is marine, as well as litho- and anthropogenic. The salts and Pb, Zn and Cu reveal high correlation to each other and to the mean grain size (pore size and porosity). Serious environmental hazard exists in that region because, due to gentle morphology, there is a risk of migration of the contaminants into ground waters and food chain.     

X‐ray tomography of tsunami deposits: Towards a new depositional model of tsunami deposits

X‐ray computed microtomography is used to obtain high resolution imagery of a historical tsunami deposit in Andalusia, Spain (1755 Lisbon tsunami). The technique allows characterization of grain‐size distribution, structures, component analysis and sedimentary fabric of fine‐grained unconsolidated tsunami deposits at resolutions down to particle scale. The results are validated by comparing to data obtained using other techniques such as laser diffraction, anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and X‐ray microfluorescence on the same deposits. Specific technical details such as sampling, scanning and image processing methods, and further improvements are addressed. The use of X‐ray computed microtomography provides new insights into the stratigraphy of the deposits and gives access to significantly more detailed view of key sedimentary features such as mudlines, rip‐up clasts, crude laminations, convolutions, floating outsized clasts and contacts between successive units. This analysis of the 1755 tsunami deposits using X‐ray computed microtomography allows the proposal of new hypotheses for the sedimentary processes forming tsunami deposits. Deposition by settling is limited and the section analysed here is dominated by a high shear stress leading to the development of traction carpets, with laminated mudlines corresponding to the basal frictional region of these carpets. The onset of the tsunami backwash is marked by a micro‐vortex resembling Kelvin–Helmoltz instabilities.     

Linking tsunami deposits, submarine slides and offshore earthquakes

The recognition that many tsunamis are associated with coastal sedimentation has been of great value in the study of tsunamis prehistorically. Geological investigation of such sediments has resulted in the identification of a series of palaeotsunamis that appear to have taken place in different areas of the world. In most cases, however, it has proved difficult to link former tsunamis to specific source mechanisms. Studies of modern tsunamis have also faced difficulties in the recognition of the specific source mechanisms. For example, offshore earthquakes may trigger submarine slides that combine to produce complex patterns of tsunami flooding at the coast.     

Multi-segment earthquakes and tsunami potential of the Aleutian megathrust

Large to great earthquakes and related tsunamis generated on the Aleutian megathrust produce major hazards for both the area of rupture and heavily populated coastlines around much of the Pacific Ocean. Here we use paleoseismic records preserved in coastal sediments to investigate whether segment boundaries control the largest ruptures or whether in some seismic cycles segments combine to produce earthquakes greater than any observed since instrumented records began. Virtually the entire megathrust has ruptured since AD1900, with four different segments generating earthquakes >M8.0. The largest was the M9.2 great Alaska earthquake of March 1964 that ruptured ～800 km of the eastern segment of the megathrust. The tsunami generated caused fatalities in Alaska and along the coast as far south as California. East of the 1964 zone of deformation, the Yakutat microplate experienced two >M8.0 earthquakes, separated by a week, in September 1899. For the first time, we present evidence that earthquakes ～900 and ～1500 years ago simultaneously ruptured adjacent segments of the Aleutian megathrust and the Yakutat microplate, with a combined area ～15% greater than 1964, giving an earthquake of greater magnitude and increased tsunamigenic potential.     

Visualization of tsunami waves with Amira package

In recent years numerical investigations of tsunami wave propagation have been spurred by the magnitude 9.3 earthquake along the Andaman–Sumatra fault in December, 2004. Visualization of tsunami waves being modeled can yield a much better physical understanding about the manner of wave propagation over realistic seafloor bathymetries. In this paper we will review the basic physics of tsunami wave propagation and illustrate how these waves can be visualized with the Amira visualization package. We have employed both the linear and nonlinear versions of the shallow-water wave equation. We will give various examples illustrating how the files can be loaded by Amira, how the wave-heights of the tsunami waves can be portrayed and viewed with illumination from light sources and how movies can be used to facilitate physical understanding and give important information in the initial stages of wave generation from interaction with the ambient geological surroundings. We will show examples of tsunami waves being modeled in the South China Sea, Yellow Sea and southwest Pacific Ocean near the Solomon Islands. Visualization should be a part of any training program for teaching the public about the potential danger arising from tsunami waves. We propose that interactive visualization with a web-portal would be useful for understanding more complex tsunami wave behavior from solving the 3-D Navier–Stokes equation in the near field.     

Developing tsunami warnings from numerical model output

A method is introduced for issuing tsunami warnings in the Australian region based on numerical model output. The method considers the maximum modelled wave amplitude within pre-defined coastal waters zones and uses this as a proxy for the potential impact on the coast. A three-level stratified warning is proposed: (1) No threat, (2) Marine threat and (3) Land threat. This method is applied to several case studies and the resulting warning characteristics are shown. While the method has its limitations, it is a significant improvement over current operational warning strategies, which are typically based solely on the magnitude of the earthquake and distance from the source.     

Ostracods as tsunami tracers in Holocene sequences

This review analyses the ostracod record in Holocene tsunami deposits, using an overview of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami impact on its recent populations and the associated tsunamigenic deposits, together with results from numerous investigations of other Holocene sequences. Different features such as the variability of the local assemblages, population density, species diversity, age population structure (e.g., percentages of adults and juvenile stages) or taphonomical signatures suggest that these microorganisms may be included amongst the most promising tracers of these high-energy events in marshes, lakes, lagoons or shallow marine areas.