Evaluation of liquefaction induced lateral displacements using genetic programming

Determination of liquefaction induced lateral displacements during earthquake is a complex geotechnical engineering problem due to the complex and heterogeneous nature of the soils and the participation of a large number of factors involved. In this paper, a new approach is presented, based on genetic programming (GP), for determination of liquefaction induced lateral spreading. The GP models are trained and validated using a database of SPT-based case histories. Separate models are presented to estimate lateral displacements for free face and for gently sloping ground conditions. It is shown that the GP models are able to learn, with a very high accuracy, the complex relationship between lateral spreading and its contributing factors in the form of a function. The attained function can then be used to generalize the learning to predict liquefaction induced lateral spreading for new cases not used in the construction of the model. The results of the developed GP models are compared with those of a commonly used multi linear regression (MLR) model and the advantages of the proposed GP model over the conventional method are highlighted.     

Seismic hazard map of Coimbatore using subsurface fault rupture

This study presents the future seismic hazard map of Coimbatore city, India, by considering rupture phenomenon. Seismotectonic map for Coimbatore has been generated using past earthquakes and seismic sources within 300 km radius around the city. The region experienced a largest earthquake of moment magnitude 6.3 in 1900. Available earthquakes are divided into two categories: one includes events having moment magnitude of 5.0 and above, i.e., damaging earthquakes in the region and the other includes the remaining, i.e., minor earthquakes. Subsurface rupture character of the region has been established by considering the damaging earthquakes and total length of seismic source. Magnitudes of each source are estimated by assuming the subsurface rupture length in terms of percentage of total length of sources and matched with reported earthquake. Estimated magnitudes match well with the reported earthquakes for a RLD of 5.2% of the total length of source. Zone of influence circles is also marked in the seismotectonic map by considering subsurface rupture length of fault associated with these earthquakes. As earthquakes relive strain energy that builds up on faults, it is assumed that all the earthquakes close to damaging earthquake have released the entire strain energy and it would take some time for the rebuilding of strain energy to cause a similar earthquake in the same location/fault. Area free from influence circles has potential for future earthquake, if there is seismogenic source and minor earthquake in the last 20 years. Based on this rupture phenomenon, eight probable locations have been identified and these locations might have the potential for the future earthquakes. Characteristic earthquake moment magnitude (M _w ) of 6.4 is estimated for the seismic study area considering seismic sources close to probable zones and 15% increased regional rupture character. The city is divided into several grid points at spacing of 0.01° and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) due to each probable earthquake is calculated at every grid point in city by using the regional attenuation model. The maximum of all these eight PGAs is taken for each grid point and the final PGA map is arrived. This map is compared to the PGA map developed based on the conventional deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) approach. The probable future rupture earthquakes gave less PGA than that of DSHA approach. The occurrence of any earthquake may be expected in near future in these eight zones, as these eight places have been experiencing minor earthquakes and are located in well-defined seismogenic sources.     

地震液化条件下地面的大变形三维数值分析

地基液化条件下地面大变形是造成工程结构破坏的主要原因之一。考虑地形、地震、土层、地下水等影响因素,针对典型的岸坡场地3层土地基模型,利用有限差分法FLAC3D,对可液化场地在地震作用下发生地面大变形的过程进行了数值模拟。结果表明,临空面坡比愈大、地表坡度越陡,地基液化地表侧向位移值愈大;变坡度的场地在地震作用下发生的侧移要比单一倾斜率的场地大;地震最大加速度越大、地震持续时间越长,地基液化侧向位移、地表沉陷和隆起现象越严重;液化层的埋深、厚度以及地下水位都对地面大变形的产生有着不同程度的影响,应选择合理的地基处理方案进行处理。     

Assessment of liquefaction and lateral spreading on the shore of Lake Sapanca during the Kocaeli (Turkey) earthquake

The 1999 Kocaeli earthquake of Turkey (M_w = 7.4) caused great destruction to buildings, bridges and other facilities, and a death tall of about 20,000. During this earthquake, severe damages due to soil liquefaction and associated ground deformations also occurred widespread in the eastern Marmara Region of Turkey. Soil liquefaction was commonly observed along the shorelines. One of these typical sites is Sapanca town founded on the shore of Lake Sapanca. This study was undertaken as quantitative measurement of ground deformations induced by liquefaction along the southern shore of Lake Sapanca. The permanent lateral ground deformation was measured through the aerial photogrammetry technique at several locations both along the shoreline and in the town. In situ soil profiles and material properties at Sapanca area were obtained based on the data from 55 borings and standard penetration tests (SPT), and laboratory tests, respectively. The data and the empirical methods recommended by an NCEER workshop were employed to evaluate the liquefaction resistance of the soils. In addition, simple shaking tests on a limited number of samples were also performed. The permanent ground displacements were estimated from the existing empirical models, sliding block method and residual visco-elastic finite element methods. Then these estimations were compared with the observed ground displacements. The assessments suggested that liquefaction at Sapanca have occurred within Quaternary alluvial fan deposits at depths 1 and 14 m, and the major regions of liquefaction and associated ground deformations were located along the shore and creeks. The evaluations also indicated that for sites with no sand boils but with ground displacement greater than 1 m, thickness of the non-liquefiable layer was large. It is also noted that no liquefaction-induced ground surface disruption is expected at the site when the thickness of the liquefiable and non-liquefiable layers vary between 0.5 and 1.5 m, and 3.5 and 5.5 m, respectively. Except one model, all the empirical models employed in the study over-predicted the observed lateral ground displacements, while sliding block method and residual visco-elastic finite element methods yielded reasonably good results if the known properties of liquefied soils are used.     

An alternative mechanism for the earthquake-induced displacement of the Lower San Fernando Dam

The 1971 San Fernando earthquake led to the failure and large displacement of the Lower San Fernando Dam (LSFD) that was constructed by the hydraulic filling method. As such, hydraulic filling has been recognised as producing liquefiable sand deposits, while in situ relative densities as large as 60% have been reported in the LSFD. On the other hand, laboratory element tests on loosest pluviated (through air or water, resembling the soil fabric produced by hydraulic filling) specimens of primarily quartz sands have been dilative, questioning the failure mechanism of the LSFD. In this paper, the LSFD during the 1971 San Fernando earthquake is studied using the results of improved sliding block deformation analyses that incorporate shearing behaviour of two sands with different mineralogies (quartz sand and albite sand with some carbonates) from ring shear tests. The results indicate that sand particle composition and compressibility in the LSFD may have caused its failure and very large deformations even at a dense state (relative density ～60%).     

Evaluation of liquefaction potential hazard of Chennai city, India: using geological and geomorphological characteristics

According to the latest UNFA Report on state of world population 2007, unleashing the potential of urban growth by 2030, the urban population will rise to 5 billion or 60?% of the world population. Liquefaction in urban areas is dangerous phenomenon, which cause more damage to buildings and loss of human lives. Chennai, the capital city of the State Tamil Nadu in India, is one of the densely populated cities in the country. The city has experienced moderate magnitude earthquakes in the past and also categorized under moderate seismic hazard as per the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS in Criteria for earthquake resistant design of structures; Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, 1893 2001). A study has been carried out to evaluate the liquefaction potential of Chennai city using geological and geomorphological characteristics. The subsurface lithology and geomorphological maps were combined in the GIS platform for assessing the liquefaction potential. The liquefaction hazard broadly classified into three categories viz., liquefaction likely, possible and not likely areas. Mainly, the liquefaction likely areas spread along the coastal areas and around the river beds. The rest of the areas are liquefaction not likely and possible. The present map can be used as first-hand information on regional liquefaction potential for the city, and it will be help to the scientists, engineers and planners who are working for future site-specific studies of the city.     

The 2003 Lefkada earthquake: Field observations and preliminary microzonation map based on liquefaction potential index for the town of Lefkada

A strong earthquake (Mw = 6.2) occurred offshore the island of Lefkada (or Lefkas) on August 14, 2003. The maximum intensity has been evaluated Io = VIII (EMS) at Lefkada municipality, while VI to VII+ intensities were evaluated at many other villages of the island. The offshore NNE-SSW oriented strike-slip right-lateral fault was activated by the main shock. This fault is the northern termination of the Cephalonia transform fault. The most characteristic macroseismic effects were extensive typical ground failures like rock falls, soil liquefactions, subsidence, densification, ground cracks and landslides. These macroseismic effects are remarkably similar to those reported from some historical Lefkada shocks, e.g. 1704, 1914 (Ms = 6.3) and 1948 (Ms = 6.5). Sand boils and ground fissures with ejection of mud were observed at the seaside of the town of Lefkada, and in the villages of Nydri and Vassiliki.In situ soil profiles are obtained based mainly on borings after the earthquake. Boreholes records with SPT values (standard penetration test) are obtained and the “simplified procedure” originally developed by Seed and Idriss was employed to evaluate the liquefaction resistance of soils. The results indicated that the silty sandy layer, which lies beneath the artificial fill in the coastal zone in Lefkada town, had liquefied during the 14 August Earthquake. An attempt was also made to establish a preliminary microzonation map for Lefkada town using the data from Liquefaction Potential Index analyses. Our map was validated by the occurrence of liquefaction phenomena inside the town.     

Mapping the liquefaction induced soil moisture changes using remote sensing technique: an attempt to map the earthquake induced liquefaction around Bhuj, Gujarat, India

The Bhuj earthquake (Mw = 7.9) occurred in the western part of India on 26th January 2001 and resulted in the loss of 20,000 lives and caused extensive damage to property. Soil liquefaction related ground failures such as lateral spreading caused significant damage to bridges, dams and other civil engineering structures in entire Kachchh peninsula. The Bhuj area is a part of large sedimentary basin filled with Jurassic, Tertiary and Quaternary deposits. This work pertains to mapping the areas that showed sudden increase in soil moisture after the seismic event, using remote sensing technique. Multi-spectral, spatial and temporal data sets from Indian Remote Sensing Satellite are used to derive the Liquefaction Sensitivity Index (LSeI). The basic concept behind LSeI is that the near infrared and shortwave infrared regions of electromagnetic spectrum are highly absorbed by soil moisture. Thus, the LSeI is herein used to identify the areas with increase in soil moisture after the seismic event. The LSeI map of Bhuj is then correlated with field-based observation on Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR) and Cyclic Resistance Ratio (CRR), depth to water table, soil density and Liquefaction Severity Index (LSI). The derived LSeI values are in agreement with liquefaction susceptible criteria and observed LSI (R ² = 0.97). The results of the study indicate that the LSeI after calibration with LSI can be used as a quick tool to map the liquefied areas. On the basis of LSeI, LSI, CRR, CSR and saturation, the unconsolidated sediments of the Bhuj area are classified into three susceptibility classes.     

Regional hazard prediction of rock bursts using microseismic energy attenuation tomography in deep mining

Rock burst prediction is a worldwide challenge that we have long tried to overcome. This study tentatively proposed a method to regionally predict rock burst hazards using microseismic energy attenuation. To verify the feasibility of the proposal, first, the mechanism of microseismic energy propagation and attenuation in rock medium was explored, and dominant attenuation characteristics of microseismic waves were analyzed. Second, a spatial attenuation model of microseismic energy was established, and the average energy attenuation coefficient for each wave path was defined. A 3D seismic energy attenuation inversion algorithm was put forward, and the corresponding computation matrix was developed. Third, a continuous microseismic field investigation was carried out in a deep coal mine. Seismic energy attenuation coefficient was confirmed using the calibrated focus position and energy determination. Based on data discretization processing, energy attenuation inversion and tomography, potential rock burst hazard regions were strictly zoned in mining areas. Finally, regional prediction results obtained from the microseismic energy attenuation were compared with the direct measurement results obtained from the classical drilling dust method to verify the reliability of proposed approach. It turns out that rock burst hazard regions predicted by the microseismic energy attenuation agreed well with the objective hazardous situations. Seismic energy attenuation coefficient is a significant evaluation factor that directly mirrors the inelastic performance of rock medium. Energy attenuation coefficient threshold used for determining the rock burst hazard regions was 3.0 km^?1. Reliability of the seismic energy attenuation inversion and tomography was closely related to the spatial distribution of microseisms in a localized region. The optimum spatial density of microseisms was 0.2 m^?3. Regional rock burst prediction using microseismic energy attenuation is an effective approach for revealing potential hazardous regions in deep mining conditions. This approach improves the pertinence of geological hazard prevention and provides a beforehand reference for targeted hazard management.     

Historical sand injections on the Mediterranean shore of Israel: evidence for liquefaction hazard

The abundant silt and sand along the coastal plain of Israel have long been considered susceptible to liquefaction, but previous searches have failed to find field evidence for it. We report the first finding of typical liquefaction features and silty sand injections in trenches that were excavated behind a fourth century Byzantine dam on the Taninim Creek, some 850 m inland of the Mediterranean shore. The trenches revealed a series of flame-shape injections of silty sand that penetrate the overlying clay-rich soil. The injections are largest and most frequent within several meters of the point where the dam is badly damaged on the seaward side, which we interpret as a possible result of a large wave. Three features make the sand injections special: (1) their lower extent is commonly asymmetric with dominant southeastward vergence, away from the breach in the dam, (2) zigzag shapes characterize the upper parts of many injections, and (3) the size and frequency of the injections diminish gradually with distance from the dam until they completely disappear some 100 m away from it. We suggest that the sand injections can be explained by overpressure that was induced either directly by earthquake shaking or by a tsunami wave that breached the dam, filled the reservoir behind the dam and increased the pressure on the water-saturated silt and sand layers and triggered liquefied sand injections. The movement of water sloshing back and forth in the lake accounts for the zigzag shape of the injections. The similarity to structures that were observed in Thailand after the great 2004 tsunami and other palaeotsunami observations lead us to prefer the tsunami origin of the liquefaction features. Based on the stratigraphic position, the archeological context, and the historical accounts, we suggest that an earthquake of November 25, 1759 is the most plausible trigger of the sand injections, either directly or via earthquake-induced tsunami. The observations demonstrate the vulnerability of the densely populated coastal plain to liquefaction.     

Generation of a landslide risk index map for Cuba using spatial multi-criteria evaluation

This paper explains the procedure for the generation of a landslide risk index map at national level in Cuba, using a semi-quantitative model with ten indicator maps and a cell size of 90 × 90 m. The model was designed and implemented using spatial multi-criteria evaluation techniques in a GIS system. Each indicator was processed, analysed and standardised according to its contribution to hazard and vulnerability. The indicators were weighted using direct, pairwise comparison and rank-ordering weighting methods, and weights were combined to obtain the final landslide risk index map. The results were analysed per physiographic region and administrative units at provincial and municipal levels. The Sierra Maestra mountain system was found to have the largest concentration of high landslide risk index values while the Nipe–Cristal–Baracoa system has the highest absolute values, although they are more dispersed. The results obtained allow designing an appropriated landslide risk mitigation plan at national level and to link the information to the national hurricane early warning system, allowing also warning and evacuation for landslide-prone areas.     

Assessment of drought hazard impact on wheat cultivation using standardized precipitation index in Iran

The assessment of drought hazard impacts on wheat cultivation as a strategic crop in Iran is essential for making mitigation plans to reduce the impact of drought. Standardized precipitation index has gained importance in recent years as a potential drought indicator and is being used more frequently for assessment of drought hazard in many countries. In the present study, the calculated standardized precipitation index for 48 stations dataset in the 30-year time scale fulfilled 30 statistical matrices. The drought hazard index map was produced by sum overlaying the spatial representations of 30 statistical matrices and categorized into four levels of low, moderate, high, and very high, which demonstrated probability of drought occurrences of 10–20 %, 20–30 %, 30–40 %, and 40–50 %, respectively. Finally, after the general division of zonal statistics in drought hazard index map of Iran, major drought hazard zones were geographically classified into five zones. The statistical analysis showed a significant correlation (R ²?=?0.701 to 0.648) between drought occurrences and wheat cultivation including surface area and total production for these drought hazard zones.     

Development of the Caltrans deterministic fault and earthquake hazard map of California

Caltrans has developed a deterministic fault and earthquake hazard map for California for use in engineering. The deterministic method avoids the problem of long recurrence in the probabilistic approach. Relating earthquake recurrence or probability to the design/economic/useful lifetime of a structure is not always a sound approach for safety considerations because earthquake cycles are largely unknown and lifetimes are conceptual and not fixed. Experience in California shows that the recurrence and temporal sequence of earthquakes are not related. The deterministic approach avoids these problems.     

Modification of the liquefaction potential index and liquefaction susceptibility mapping for a liquefaction-prone area (Inegol,Turkey)

Although some liquefaction assessment methods were proposed to evaluate the liquefaction potential of sandy soils, the conventional method based on the standard penetration test (SPT) has been commonly used in most countries and in Turkey. However, it alone is not a sufficient tool for the evaluation of liquefaction potential. The liquefaction potential index was proposed to quantify the severity of liquefaction. Nevertheless, the liquefaction potential index and the severity categories do not answer the question: "Which areas will not liquify?" Besides, the categories do not include a "moderate" category; on the other hand, the "high" and "low" categories are included. This situation is also contrary to the nature of classification schemes. In this study, the liquefaction potential index and the liquefaction potential categories were modified by considering the existing form of the categories based on the liquefaction potential index. While the category of low was omitted, the categories of moderate and "non-liquefied" were adopted. A factor of safety of 1.2 was assumed as the lowest value for the liquefaction potential category of non-liquefied. In addition, the town of Inegol in the Marmara region became the case study for checking the performance of the liquefaction potential categories suggested in this study.     

Regional prediction of landslide hazard using probability analysis of intense rainfall in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam

The main objective of this study is to assess regional landslide hazards in the Hoa Binh province of Vietnam. A landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources with data mainly for a period of 21 years from 1990 to 2010. The historic inventory of these failures shows that rainfall is the main triggering factor in this region. The probability of the occurrence of episodes of rainfall and the rainfall threshold were deduced from records of rainfall for the aforementioned period. The rainfall threshold model was generated based on daily and cumulative values of antecedent rainfall of the landslide events. The result shows that 15-day antecedent rainfall gives the best fit for the existing landslides in the inventory. The rainfall threshold model was validated using the rainfall and landslide events that occurred in 2010 that were not considered in building the threshold model. The result was used for estimating temporal probability of a landslide to occur using a Poisson probability model. Prior to this work, five landslide susceptibility maps were constructed for the study area using support vector machines, logistic regression, evidential belief functions, Bayesian-regularized neural networks, and neuro-fuzzy models. These susceptibility maps provide information on the spatial prediction probability of landslide occurrence in the area. Finally, landslide hazard maps were generated by integrating the spatial and the temporal probability of landslide. A total of 15 specific landslide hazard maps were generated considering three time periods of 1, 3, and 5 years.     

Analysis of piles subjected to lateral soil movements using a three‐dimensional displacement approach

An analytical approach using the three‐dimensional displacement of a soil is investigated to provide analytical solutions of the horizontal response of a circular pile subjected to lateral soil movements in nonhomogeneous soil. The lateral stiffness coefficient of the pile shaft in nonhomogeneous soil is derived from the rocking stiffness coefficient that is obtained from the analytical solution, taking into account the three‐dimensional displacement represented in terms of scalar potentials in the elastic three‐dimensional analysis. The relationship between horizontal displacement, rotation, moment, and shear force of a pile subjected to lateral soil movements in nonhomogeneous soil is obtainable in the form of the recurrence equation. For the relationship between the lateral pressure and the horizontal displacement, it is assumed that the behavior is linear elastic up to lateral soil yield, and the lateral pressure is constant under the lateral soil yield. The interaction factors between piles subjected to both lateral load and moment are calculated, taking into account the lateral soil movement. The formulation of the lateral displacement and rotation of the pile base subjected to lateral loads in nonhomogeneous soils is presented by taking into account the Mindlin equation and the equivalent thickness for soil layers in the equivalent elastic method. For lateral movement, lateral pressure, bending moment, and interaction factors, there are small differences between results obtained from the 1‐D and the 3‐D displacement methods except a very flexible pile. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Small-scale modelling of plant root systems using 3D printing,with applications to investigate the role of vegetation on earthquake-induced landslides

Vegetation has been previously proposed as a method for protecting artificial and natural slopes against shallow landslides (e.g. as may be triggered by an earthquake); however, previous research has concentrated on individual root soil interaction during shear deformation rather than the global slope behaviour due to the extreme expense and difficulty involved in conducting full-scale field tests. Geotechnical centrifuge modelling offers an opportunity to investigate in detail the engineering performance of vegetated slopes, but its application has been restricted due to the lack of availability of suitable root analogues that can repeatably replicate appropriate mechanical properties (stiffness and strength) and realistic 3D geometry. This study employed 3D printing to develop a representative and repeatable 1:10 scale model of a tree root cluster (representing roots up to 1.5 m deep at prototype scale) that can be used within a geotechnical centrifuge to investigate the response of a vegetated slope subject to earthquake ground motion. The printed acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plastic root model was identified to be highly representative of the geometry and mechanical behaviour (stiffness and strength) of real woody root systems. A programme of large direct shear tests was also performed to evaluate the additional strength provided by the root analogues within soil that is slipping and investigate the influence of various characteristics (including root area ratio (RAR), soil confining effective stress and root morphology) on this reinforcing effect. Our results show that root reinforcement is not only a function of root mechanical properties but also depends on factors including surrounding effective confining stress (resulting in depth dependency even for the same RAR), depth of the slip plane and root morphology. When subject to shear loading in soil, the tap root appeared to structurally transfer load within the root system, including to smaller and deeper roots which subsequently broke or were pulled out. Finally, the root analogues were added to model slopes subjected to earthquake ground motion in the centrifuge, where it was revealed that vegetation can substantially reduce earthquake-induced slope deformation in the soil conditions tested (76% reduction on crest permanent settlement during slippage). Both the realistic 3D geometry and highly simplified root morphologies, as characterised mechanically by the shear tests, were tested in the centrifuge which, despite exhibiting very different levels of additional strength in the shear tests, resulted in very similar responses of the slopes. This suggests that once a certain minimum level of reinforcement has been reached which will alter the deformation mechanism within the slope, further increases of root contribution (e.g. due to differences in root morphology) do not have a large further effect on improving slope stability.