Scoring system to predict landslide runout in the Pacific Northwest,USA

Landslides - Long-runout landslides can be extremely hazardous and unpredictable. The prediction of long-runout landslides is challenging because it is unclear what factors control their mobility,...     

Recent seismicity in Delhi and population exposure to seismic hazard

Natural Hazards - This paper makes an attempt to review historical and recent seismicity in Delhi and presents updated seismic hazard map of Delhi integrated with ward-wise classified population...     

The hazard exposure of the Maltese Islands

International comparisons of disaster risk frequently classify Malta as being one of the least hazard exposed countries. Such rankings may be criticised because: (1) they fail to take into account historic increases in population and its seasonal variation; (2) they are based on inadequately researched and incomplete historical catalogues of damaging events; and (3), for small island states like Malta, they do not take into account the implications of restricted land area, which can be disproportionately impacted by even small hazardous events. In this paper, we draw upon a variety of data to discuss disaster risk in the Maltese Islands. In particular, the notion that Malta is one of the ‘safest places on earth’ is not only misleading, but also potentially dangerous because it engenders a false sense of security amongst the population. We argue that Malta is exposed to a variety of extreme events, which include: the distal effects of major earthquakes originating in southern Italy and Greece, plus their associated tsunamis; major ash producing eruptions of Mount Etna (Sicily) and their putative impacts on air transport; storm waves; coastal/inland landslides; karstic collapse; flooding and drought. In criticising international rankings of the islands’ exposure, we highlight the issues involved in formulating hazard assessments, in particular incomplete catalogues of extreme natural events. With Malta witnessing swelling resident, seasonal (i.e. tourist) plus foreign-born populations and increases in the urban area, further research into hazards is required in order to develop evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction (DRR).     

Tsunami hazard and exposure on the global scale

In the aftermath of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, a large increase in the activity of tsunami hazard and risk mapping is observed. Most of these are site-specific studies with detailed modelling of the run-up locally. However, fewer studies exist on the regional and global scale. Therefore, tsunamis have been omitted in previous global studies comparing different natural hazards. Here, we present a first global tsunami hazard and population exposure study. A key topic is the development of a simple and robust method for obtaining reasonable estimates of the maximum water level during tsunami inundation. This method is mainly based on plane wave linear hydrostatic transect simulations, and validation against results from a standard run-up model is given. The global hazard study is scenario based, focusing on tsunamis caused by megathrust earthquakes only, as the largest events will often contribute more to the risk than the smaller events. Tsunamis caused by non-seismic sources are omitted. Hazard maps are implemented by conducting a number of tsunami scenario simulations supplemented with findings from literature. The maps are further used to quantify the number of people exposed to tsunamis using the Landscan population data set. Because of the large geographical extents, quantifying the tsunami hazard assessment is focusing on overall trends.     

Assessment of the volcanic hazard of Mt. Paektu explosion to international air traffic using South Korean airspace

Natural Hazards - A volcanic eruption is one of the most critical natural hazards in air transportation. In the European region, the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in 2010 triggered extensive...     

Tracing nitrogen in volcanic and geothermal volatiles from the Nicaraguan volcanic front

We report new chemical and isotopic data from 26 volcanic and geothermal gases, vapor condensates, and thermal water samples, collected along the Nicaraguan volcanic front. The samples were analyzed for chemical abundances and stable isotope compositions, with a focus on nitrogen abundances and isotope ratios. These data are used to evaluate samples for volatile contributions from magma, air, air-saturated water, and the crust. Samples devoid of crustal contamination (based upon He isotope composition) but slightly contaminated by air or air-saturated water are corrected using N₂/Ar ratios in order to obtain primary magmatic values, composed of contributions from upper mantle and subducted hemipelagic sediment on the down-going plate. Using a mantle endmember with δ¹⁵N = −5‰ and N₂/He = 100 and a subducted sediment component with δ¹⁵N = +7‰ and N₂/He = 10,500, the average sediment contribution to Nicaraguan volcanic and geothermal gases was determined to be 71%. Most of the gases were dominated by sediment-derived nitrogen, but gas from Volcán Mombacho, the southernmost sampling location, had a mantle signature (46% from subducted sediment, or 54% from the mantle) and an affinity with mantle-dominated gases discharging from Costa Rica localities to the south. High CO₂/N_{2 exc.} ratios (N_{2 exc.} is the N₂ abundance corrected for contributions from air) in the south are similar to those in Costa Rica, and reflect the predominant mantle wedge input, whereas low ratios in the north indicate contribution by altered oceanic crust and/or preferential release of nitrogen over carbon from the subducting slab. Sediment-derived nitrogen fluxes at the Nicaraguan volcanic front, estimated by three methods, are 7.8 × 10⁸ mol N/a from ³He flux, 6.9 × 10⁸ mol/a from SO₂ flux, and 2.1 × 10⁸ and 1.3 × 10⁹ mol/a from CO₂ fluxes calculated from ³He and SO₂, respectively. These flux results are higher than previous estimates for Central America, reflecting the high sediment-derived volatile contribution and the high nitrogen content of geothermal and volcanic gases in Nicaragua. The fluxes are also similar to but higher than estimated hemipelagic nitrogen inputs at the trench, suggesting addition of N from altered oceanic basement is needed to satisfy these flux estimates. The similarity of the calculated input of N via the trench to our calculated outputs suggests that little or none of the subducted nitrogen is being recycled into the deeper mantle, and that it is, instead, returned to the surface via arc volcanism.     

西北干旱区湖泊的近期变化

本文阐述了西北干旱地区湖泊变化的概况,论证了引起变化的原因,并分析了湖泊变化对湖区环境的影响:气候日益恶化,沙漠化面积扩大,林带消失、植被衰退,鱼类资源增殖受阻、产量下降。此外,还结合变化原因,提出了相应的治理建议。     

Glacial and volcanic history of Icelandic table mountains from cosmogenic 3He exposure ages

Basaltic table mountains in the neovolcanic zones of Iceland have been interpreted as subglacial volcanoes that emerged through an ice sheet. Using their distinctive morphological and lithostratigraphic characteristics, the approximate surface elevation and thickness of the ice sheet at the time of eruption can be determined. We measured cosmogenic ³He concentrations in olivine phenocrysts from subaerially erupted basaltic lava caps of table mountains to determine their exposure ages. We argue that these exposure ages closely approximate eruption ages; the possibility of past snow cover is the main uncertainty. The resulting ³He exposure (eruption) ages, calculated using a locally derived ³He production rate calibration, and comprising 42 individual ages from 13 table mountains, allow reconstruction of ice sheet surface profiles through time. The new ³He chronology indicates that 12 of the 13 dated table mountains experienced their final eruptive phase during the last deglaciation. This eruptive chronology is broadly consistent with the hypothesis that melt production in Iceland is enhanced by pressure release from ice sheet unloading during deglaciation. The clustered distribution of table mountain ages suggests that distinct episodes of ice sheet thinning may have coincided with, or closely followed, the two strongest warming events in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation: the Bølling warming (ca 14.5 ka) and the warming at the end of the Younger Dryas.     

Using multiple logistic regression and GIS technology to predict landslide hazard in northeast Kansas, USA

Landslides in the hilly terrain along the Kansas and Missouri rivers in northeastern Kansas have caused millions of dollars in property damage during the last decade. To address this problem, a statistical method called multiple logistic regression has been used to create a landslide-hazard map for Atchison, Kansas, and surrounding areas. Data included digitized geology, slopes, and landslides, manipulated using ArcView GIS. Logistic regression relates predictor variables to the occurrence or nonoccurrence of landslides within geographic cells and uses the relationship to produce a map showing the probability of future landslides, given local slopes and geologic units. Results indicated that slope is the most important variable for estimating landslide hazard in the study area. Geologic units consisting mostly of shale, siltstone, and sandstone were most susceptible to landslides. Soil type and aspect ratio were considered but excluded from the final analysis because these variables did not significantly add to the predictive power of the logistic regression. Soil types were highly correlated with the geologic units, and no significant relationships existed between landslides and slope aspect.     

Estimation of tsunami hazard from volcanic activity — Suggested methodology with Augustine volcano,Alaska as an example

A general approach for the estimation of tsunami height and hazard in the vicinity of active volcanoes has been developed. An empirical relationship has been developed to estimate the height of the tsunami generated for an eruption of a given size. This relationship can be used to estimate the tsunami hazard based on the frequency of eruptive activity of a particular volcano. This technique is then applied to the estimation of tsunami hazard from the eruption of the Augustine volcano in Alaska. Modification of this approach to account for a less than satisfactory data base and differing volcanic characteristics is also discussed with the case of the Augustine volcano as an example. This approach can be used elsewhere with only slight modifications and, for the first time, provides a technique to estimate tsunami hazard from volcanic activity, similar to a well-established approach for the estimation of tsunami hazard from earthquake activity.     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Volcanic hazard assessment incorporating expert knowledge: Application to the yucca mountain region, Nevada, USA

Multiple-expert hazard/risk assessments have considerable precedent, particularly in the Yucca Mountain site characterization studies. A certain amount of expert knowledge is needed to interpret the geological data used in a probabilistic data analysis. As may be the situation in science, experts disagree on crucial points. Consequently, lack of consensus in some studies is a sure outcome. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to statistical modeling in volcanic hazard assessment for the Yucca Mountain site. Specifically, we show that the expert opinion on the site disruption parameterp is incorporated into the prior distribution, π(p), based on geological information that is available. Moreover, π(p) can combine all available geological information motivated by conflicting but realistic arguments (e.g., simulation, cluster analysis, structural control, ..., etc.). The incorporated uncertainties about the probability of repository disruptionp eventually will be averaged out by taking the expectation over π(p). We use the following priors in the analysis: (1) priors selected for mathematical convenience: Beta (r,s) for (r,s) = (2, 2), (3, 3), (5, 5), (2, 1),(2, 8), (8, 2), and (1, 1);and (2) three priors motivated by expert knowledge. Sensitivity analysis is performed for each prior distribution. Our study concludes that estimated values of hazard based on the priors selected for mathematical simplicity are uniformly higher than those obtained based on the priors motivated by expert knowledge. And, the model using the prior, Beta (8, 2), yields the highest hazard (=2.97 × 10^-2 . The minimum hazard is produced by the “three-expert prior” (i.e., values of p are equally likely for p = 10^-3, 10^-2,and 10^-1 . The estimate of the hazard is 1.39 × 10^-3, which is only about one order of magnitude smaller than the maximum value. The term, “hazard, ” is defined as the probability of at least one disruption of a repository at the Yucca Mountain site by basaltic volcanism for the next 10,000 years.     

Soil geochemical parameters influencing the spatial distribution of anthrax in Northwest Minnesota,USA

Bacillus anthracis is the pathogenic bacterium that causes anthrax, which dwells in soils as highly resilient endospores. B. anthracis spore viability in soil is dependent upon environmental conditions, but the soil properties necessary for spore survival are unclear. In this study we used a range of soil geochemical and physical parameters to predict the spatial distribution of B. anthracis in northwest Minnesota, where 64 cases of anthrax in livestock were reported from 2000 to 2013. Two modeling approaches at different spatial scales were used to identify the soil conditions most correlated to known anthrax cases using both statewide and locally collected soil data. Ecological niche models were constructed using the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) approach and included 11 soil parameters as environmental inputs and recorded anthrax cases as known presences. One ecological niche model used soil data and anthrax presences for the entire state while a second model used locally sampled soil data (n = 125) and a subset of anthrax presences, providing a test of spatial scale. In addition, simple logistic regression models using the localized soil data served as an independent measure of variable importance. Maxent model results indicate that at a statewide level, soil calcium and magnesium concentrations, soil pH, and sand content are the most important properties for predicting soil suitability for B. anthracis while at the local level, clay and sand content along with phosphorous and strontium concentrations are most important. These results also show that the spatial scale of analysis is important when considering soil parameters most important for B. anthracis spores. For example, at a broad scale, B. anthracis spores may require Ca-rich soils and an alkaline pH, but may also concentrate in microenvironments with high Sr concentrations. The study is also one of the first ecological niche models that demonstrates the major importance of soil texture for defining the ecological niche of B. anthracis. These results will help improve our understanding of the soil geochemical conditions most suitable for B. anthracis as well as more reliably identify areas where anthrax may be found to focus prevention and remediation efforts.     

Anomalous Alpine fans: from the genesis to the present hazard

The present paper aims at characterising Alpine anomalous basin-fan systems, in order to develop a method for hazard assessment for such fans. The review of previous studies revealed that anomalous basin-fan systems are often associated with deep-seated slope failure and present-day hazard is associated to debris flow occurrence. Taking into account these peculiarities, a modelling approach to assess the present day hazard in anomalous fans has been developed and applied to the Sernio fan (Valtellina, northern Italy). Debris flow inundation areas have been simulated by means of a numerical model (RApid Mass MovementS (RAMMS) debris flow), which includes a routine for the sediment entrainment. The range of the model parameters was defined based on previous studies, enabling a sensitivity analysis on the debris flow runout, as well as the flow height and velocity. Numerical results point out the paramount importance of entrainment phenomena on debris flow dynamic in anomalous systems, especially with reference to the bulking factor and debris yield rate that reach very high values, typical of basins with unlimited solid supply.     

Clinoenstatite in volcanic rocks from the Bonin Islands

Multiply-twinned clinoenstatite has been found in andesitic rocks from Chichi-jima and Mukojima in the Bonin Islands.The clinoenstatite occurs as (1) reaction rims around olivine, (2) composite crystals with bronzite, and (3) anhedral phenocrysts rimmed or included by bronzite.The clinoenstatite is chemically characterized by low contents of Ca (less than 0.5 wt.% oxide), Fs (9.2–11.5) and Al (less than 0.6 wt.% oxide) relative to the coexisting bronzite. The partition coefficient, K _{D op} ^cp =(Mg/Fe²⁺)^cp/(Mg/Fe²⁺)^op between coexisting clinoenstatite and bronzite, ranges from 1.02 to 1.32 (average 1.17). The Fe²⁺/Mg+Fe²⁺ ratios of coexisting clinoenstatite and bronzite are different in different rock types, which suggests variable inversion temperatures of protoenstatite to orthopyroxene in boninite.Bronzite phenocrysts in a specimen, ranging from Fs15 to Fs30, coexist with augite phenocrysts, whereas those in the other specimens, ranging from Fs12 to Fs18, do not coexist with augite phenocrysts. These differences in petrographical nature and mineral chemistry among the specimens examined may be due to variations in their quenching stages.The boninite clinoenstatite and bronzite are relatively rich in Ca and Mg, compared with the Papuan and Mariana pyroxenes, which seems to depend upon the rock chemistry.     

Ca-enrichment in olivines from volcanic rocks

Data are presented on the Ca-content of olivines in a range of volcanic rocks from a variety of suites. These include olivine basalts through to trachytes from Gough, St. Helena and Tristan da Cunha Islands; trachytes from central Victoria, Australia, and a leucitite and phonclitic-tephrite series from Bufumbira, Uganda. In olivine crystals from basaltic lavas the Ca- and Mn-contents are low and Fe shows the most significant zoning from core to rim. In Fe-rich olivines from trachytic differentiates Ca and Mn frequently show more significant variation than Fe. While the Mn-content is proportional to the Fe-content of these olivines, Ca-zoning, in many cases, is unrelated to Fe-content. The marked Ca-enrichment in olivines occurs with the absence of plagioclase in the host lavas. The Ca(Al  Na  K) ratio is shown to be related not only to the Ca-content of the olivines in the lava, but may be used to predict olivine stability in evolved compositions.     

Low-head hyperfiltration through Jurassic-Cretaceous metamorphic Darrington Phyllite discs (from the Northwest Cascades of Washington State, USA)

Membrane behavior in naturally occurring and engineering systems refers to the restriction of solute migration through a membrane relative to the migration of the solvent. Hyperfiltration is the net flux that results when two solutions of different concentration are separated by a membrane and an external force is applied in excess of the osmotic pressure. Clay membranes containing layered fabric have higher efficiencies than membranes with random fabrics. Therefore, low-permeability rocks with a foliated fabric might exhibit membrane properties. Four hyperfiltration experiments were conducted on samples of Darrington Phyllite from the Easton Metamorphic Suite of the Northwest Cascades, Washington (USA). Chloride solutions were passed through thin, intact discs at relatively low heads. At the end of the experiments, dissolved chloride concentrations had increased 110–140 % and calculated reflection coefficients ranged from 0.87 to 0.88; this was attributed to partial solute rejection by the phyllite. Natural scenarios in which phyllite might exhibit membrane properties include (1) shallow perched aquifers bounded by phyllite, (2) overpressured aquifers bounded by phyllite, (3) phyllite-bounded aquifers with significant vertical groundwater flows, and (4) ultrafiltration during metamorphic devolatilization at depth. Membrane processes exhibited by phyllite may also contribute to the formation of some low-temperature ore bodies.     

人类活动引起的我国西北地区21世纪温度和降水变化情景分析

使用IPCCWG1第三次科学评估报告中给出的7个全球气候系统模式的模拟预测结果,分析了人类活动对中国西北地区气候变化的影响.模拟结果表明,由于温室气体增加(GG)或温室气体与硫化物气溶胶(GS)增加,21世纪西北地区气温将可能平均变暖42～60℃·100a^-1.降水的变化较为复杂,由于温室气体的影响,未来西北地区降水将增加;考虑温室气体和硫化物气溶胶的共同影响,则略有增加.模式平均结果表明,未来西北地区降水将可能增加15～39mm·100a^-1.