Effects of raised CO2 concentration on the egg production rate and early development of two marine copepods (Acartia steueri and Acartia erythraea)

Direct injection of CO(2) into the deep ocean is receiving increasing attention as a way to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration. To assess the potential impact of the environmental change associated with CO(2) sequestration in the ocean, we studied the lethal and sub-lethal effects of raised CO(2) concentration in seawater on adult and early stage embryos of marine planktonic copepods. We found that the reproduction rate and larval development of copepods are very sensitive to increased CO(2) concentration. The hatching rate tended to decrease, and nauplius mortality rate to increase, with increased CO(2) concentration. These results suggest that the marine copepod community will be negatively affected by the disposal of CO(2). This could decrease on the carbon export flux to the deep ocean and change the biological pump. Clearly, further studies are needed to determine whether ocean CO(2) injection is an acceptable strategy to reduce anthropogenic CO(2).     

Effects of high CO2 seawater on the copepod (Acartia tsuensis) through all life stages and subsequent generations

We studied the effects of exposure to seawater equilibrated with CO(2)-enriched air (CO(2) 2380 ppm) from eggs to maturity and over two subsequent generations on the copepod Acartia tsuensis. Compared to the control (CO(2) 380 ppm), high CO(2) exposure through all life stages of the 1st generation copepods did not significantly affect survival, body size or developmental speed. Egg production and hatching rates were also not significantly different between the initial generation of females exposed to high CO(2) and the 1st and 2nd generation females developed from eggs to maturity in high CO(2). Thus, the copepods appear more tolerant to increased CO(2) than other marine organisms previously investigated for CO(2) tolerance (i.e., sea urchins and bivalves). However, the crucial importance of copepods in marine ecosystems requires thorough evaluation of the overall impacts of marine environmental changes predicted to occur with increased CO(2) concentrations, i.e., increased temperature, enhanced UV irradiation, and changes in the community structure and nutritional value of phytoplankton.     

Towards quantitative ecological risk assessment of elevated carbon dioxide levels in the marine environment

The environmental impact of elevated carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels has become of more interest in recent years. This, in relation to globally rising CO₂ levels and related considerations of geological CO₂ storage as a mitigating measure. In the present study effect data from literature were collected in order to conduct a marine ecological risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels, using a Species Sensitivity Distribution (SSD). It became evident that information currently available from the literature is mostly insufficient for such a quantitative approach. Most studies focus on effects of expected future CO₂ levels, testing only one or two elevated concentrations. A full dose-response relationship, a uniform measure of exposure, and standardized test protocols are essential for conducting a proper quantitative risk assessment of elevated CO₂ levels. Improvements are proposed to make future tests more valuable and usable for quantitative risk assessment.     

Assessment of Anthropogenic Impact on Marine Ecosystems and Biological Resources in the Process of Oil and Gas Field Development in the Shelf Area

Current methodology of environmental impact assessment in connection with the environmental consequences of hydrocarbons production in the shelf area is analyzed. Basing on the ecosystem approach, a scheme of environmental impact estimates is suggested, envisaging the use of a set of gradations (scales) to characterize spatial and temporal scope of impacts and their consequences, as well as criteria (thresholds) of impact permissibility, taking into account the natural variability in the population and ecosystem parameters. Estimates of the environmental and fishery-related consequences of hydrocarbon production in the sea shelf area at different stages of the process are compared to the available measured and calculated data. The suggested scheme of environmental impact assessment and criteria of permissible impacts are recommended for expert analysis, forecasting, and monitoring of the environmental situation in the sea shelf areas of Russia under the conditions of anthropogenic impact.     

Modeling Gaseous CO2 Flow Behavior in Layered Basalts: Dimensional Analysis and Aquifer Response

Particular attention is paid to the risk of carbon dioxide (CO₂) leakage in geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) operations, as it might lead to the failure of sequestration efforts and to the contamination of underground sources of drinking water. As carbon dioxide would eventually reach shallower formations under its gaseous state, understanding its multiphase flow behavior is essential. To this aim, a hypothetical gaseous leak of carbon dioxide resulting from a well integrity failure of the GCS system in operation at Hellisheiði (CarbFix2) is here modeled. Simulations show that migration of gaseous carbon dioxide is largely affected by formation stratigraphy, intrinsic permeability, and retention properties, whereas the initial groundwater hydraulic gradient (0.0284) has practically no effect. In two different scenarios, about 18.3 and 30.6% of the CO₂ that would have been injected by the GCS system for 3 days could be potentially released again into the atmosphere due to a sustained leakage of the same duration. As the gaseous leak occurs, the aquifer experiences high pressure buildups, and the presence of a less conductive layer further magnifies these. Strikingly, the dimensional analysis showed that buoyant and viscous forces can be comparable over time within the predicted gaseous plumes, even far from the leakage source. Local pressure gradients, buoyant, viscous, and capillary forces all play an important role during leakage. Therefore, neglecting one or more of these contributions might lead to a partial prediction of gaseous CO₂ flow behavior in the subsurface, giving space to incorrect interpretations and wrong operational choices.     

The inhibition of marine nitrification by ocean disposal of carbon dioxide

In an attempt to reduce the threat of global warming, it has been proposed that the rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations be reduced by the ocean disposal of CO2 from the flue gases of fossil fuel-fired power plants. The release of large amounts of CO2 into mid or deep ocean waters will result in large plumes of acidified seawater with pH values ranging from 6 to 8. In an effort to determine whether these CO2-induced pH changes have any effect on marine nitrification processes, surficial (euphotic zone) and deep (aphotic zone) seawater samples were sparged with CO2 for varying time durations to achieve a specified pH reduction, and the rate of microbial ammonia oxidation was measured spectrophotometrically as a function of pH using an inhibitor technique. For both seawater samples taken from either the euphotic or aphotic zone, the nitrification rates dropped drastically with decreasing pH. Relative to nitrification rates in the original seawater at pH 8, nitrification rates were reduced by ca. 50% at pH 7 and more than 90% at pH 6.5. Nitrification was essentially completely inhibited at pH 6. These findings suggest that the disposal of CO2 into mid or deep oceans will most likely result in a drastic reduction of ammonia oxidation rates within the pH plume and the concomitant accumulation of ammonia instead of nitrate. It is unlikely that ammonia will reach the high concentration levels at which marine aquatic organisms are known to be negatively affected. However, if the ammonia-rich seawater from inside the pH plume is upwelled into the euphotic zone, it is likely that changes in phytoplankton abundance and community structure will occur. Finally, the large-scale inhibition of nitrification and the subsequent reduction of nitrite and nitrate concentrations could also result in a decrease of denitrification rates which, in turn, could lead to the buildup of nitrogen and unpredictable eutrophication phenomena. Clearly, more research on the environmental effects of ocean disposal of CO2 is needed to determine whether the potential costs related to marine ecosystem disturbance and disruption can be justified in terms of the perceived benefits that may be achieved by temporarily delaying global warming.     

A marine secondary producer respires and feeds more in a high CO2 ocean

Climate change mediates marine chemical and physical environments and therefore influences marine organisms. While increasing atmospheric CO(2) level and associated ocean acidification has been predicted to stimulate marine primary productivity and may affect community structure, the processes that impact food chain and biological CO(2) pump are less documented. We hypothesized that copepods, as the secondary marine producer, may respond to future changes in seawater carbonate chemistry associated with ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric CO(2) concentration. Here, we show that the copepod, Centropages tenuiremis, was able to perceive the chemical changes in seawater induced under elevated CO(2) concentration (>1700 μatm, pH<7.60) with avoidance strategy. The copepod's respiration increased at the elevated CO(2) (1000 μatm), associated acidity (pH 7.83) and its feeding rates also increased correspondingly, except for the initial acclimating period, when it fed less. Our results imply that marine secondary producers increase their respiration and feeding rate in response to ocean acidification to balance the energy cost against increased acidity and CO(2) concentration.     

Extended probit mortality model for zooplankton against transient change of PCO(2)

The direct injection of CO(2) in the deep ocean is a promising way to mitigate global warming. One of the uncertainties in this method, however, is its impact on marine organisms in the near field. Since the concentration of CO(2), which organisms experience in the ocean, changes with time, it is required to develop a biological impact model for the organisms against the unsteady change of CO(2) concentration. In general, the LC(50) concept is widely applied for testing a toxic agent for the acute mortality. Here, we regard the probit-transformed mortality as a linear function not only of the concentration of CO(2) but also of exposure time. A simple mathematical transform of the function gives a damage-accumulation mortality model for zooplankton. In this article, this model was validated by the mortality test of Metamphiascopsis hirsutus against the transient change of CO(2) concentration.     

Environmental effects of North Sea oil operations

To appreciate the impact of large-scale industrial operations on the marine environment requires a range of scientific studies which ideally should include physical, chemical and biological surveys of the various environmental compartments likely to be contaminated, linked with experiments designed to detect and quantify effects. More finely focused studies can then provide an evaluation of the impact. In relation to North Sea oil activities, this type of approach suggests that at present significant offshore contamination is found only in the sediments close to platforms using oil-based drilling muds.     

An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty

In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives.     

Biomarkers in environmental and human health risk assessment

Marine pollution is a major threat to human and environmental health. Given the complexity of function of marine and coastal ecosystems, it is unlikely that a balanced view of the nature and extent of risk will easily be achieved if human and environmental risk assessments continue to be conducted in isolation. Here, the integration of assessment protocols is advocated as a holistic means of improving risk management. Biomarkers can provide the common conceptual framework and measurable endpoints necessary for successful integration. Examples are given of the ways in which suites of biomarkers encompassing molecular change, cellular pathology and physiological impairment can be developed and adapted for human and ecological scenarios. By placing a greater emphasis on the health status of impacted biota, it is more likely that risk assessment will develop the efficiency, reliability and predictive power to adapt to the unforeseen environmental threats that are an inevitable consequence of human development and global change.     

Time‐varying suspended sediment‐discharge rating curves to estimate climate impacts on fluvial sediment transport

This study presents time‐varying suspended sediment‐discharge rating curves to model suspended‐sediment concentrations (SSCs) under alternative climate scenarios. The proposed models account for hysteresis at multiple time scales, with particular attention given to systematic shifts in sediment transport following large floods (long‐term hysteresis). A series of nested formulations are tested to evaluate the elements embedded in the proposed models in a case study watershed that supplies drinking water to New York City. To maximize available data for model development, a dynamic regression model is used to estimate SSC based on denser records of turbidity, where the parameters of this regression are allowed to vary over time to account for potential changes in the turbidity‐SSC relationship. After validating the proposed rating curves, we compare simulations of SSC among a subset of models in a climate change impact assessment using an ensemble of flow simulations generated using a stochastic weather generator and hydrologic model. We also examine SSC estimates under synthetic floods generated using a peaks‐over‐threshold model. Our results indicate that estimates of extreme SSC under new climate and hydrologic scenarios can vary widely depending on the selected model and may be significantly underestimated if long‐term hysteresis is ignored when simulating impacts under sequences of large storm event. Based on the climate change scenarios explored here, average annual maximum SSC could increase by as much as 2.45 times over historical values.     

Comparison of two different equations of state for application of carbon dioxide sequestration

We suggest that different equations of state (EOS) algorithms can and frequently will provide very different predictions of CO₂ migration following injection for sequestration. Rather than carry out an exhaustive examination of all EOS algorithms available, we elected to evaluate this general hypothesis by making detailed comparisons of simulation results of two very common EOS algorithms. We simulated and compared CO₂ migration patterns using two fundamentally different EOS algorithms – Modified Redlich-Kwong EOS (MRKEOS) and Span and Wagner EOS (SWEOS). In general, the predictions of thermophysical properties for both algorithms are close, except for a contrast in the predicted fugacity coefficient of CO₂, which subsequently propagates to a contrast in predicted solubility in water/brine. Typically, MRKEOS underestimates solubility of CO₂ compared to both SWEOS and experimental solubility data. In simulations of CO₂ migration, dissolution rates of separate-phase CO₂ predicted from the two EOS algorithms were significantly different, even for small contrasts in predicted fluid properties from EOS algorithms, resulting in markedly different migration patterns.     

Processes of coastal ecosystem carbon sequestration and approaches for increasing carbon sink

The oceans are the largest carbon pools on Earth, and play the role of a "buffer" in climate change. Blue carbon, the carbon(mainly organic carbon) captured by marine ecosystems, is one of the important mechanisms of marine carbon storage.Blue carbon was initially recognized only in the form of visible coastal plant carbon sequestration. In fact, microorganisms(phytoplankton, bacteria, archaea, viruses, and protozoa), which did not receive much attention in the past, account for more than 90% of the total marine biomass and are the main contributors to blue carbon. Chinese coastal seas, equivalent to 1/3 of China's total land area, have a huge carbon sink potential needing urgently research and development. In this paper, we focus on the processes and mechanisms of coastal ocean's carbon sequestration and the approaches for increasing that sequestration. We discuss the structures of coastal ecosystems, the processes of carbon cycle, and the mechanisms of carbon sequestration. Using the evolution of coastal ocean's carbon sinks in sedimentary records over geologic times, we also discuss the possible effects of natural processes and anthropogenic activities on marine carbon sinks. Finally, we discuss the prospect of using carbon sequestration engineering for increasing coastal ocean's carbon storage capacity.     

Assessment of future groundwater recharge in semi‐arid regions under climate change scenarios (Serral‐Salinas aquifer,SE Spain). Could increased rainfall variability increase the recharge rate?

The projected impact of climate change on groundwater recharge is a challenge in hydrogeological research because substantial doubts still remain, particularly in arid and semi‐arid zones. We present a methodology to generate future groundwater recharge scenarios using available information about regional climate change projections developed in European Projects. It involves an analysis of regional climate model (RCM) simulations and a proposal for ensemble models to assess the impacts of climate change. Future rainfall and temperature series are generated by modifying the mean and standard deviation of the historical series in accordance with estimates of their change provoked by climate change. Future recharge series will be obtained by simulating these new series within a continuous balance model of the aquifer. The proposed method is applied to the Serral‐Salinas aquifer, located in a semi‐arid zone of south‐east Spain. The results show important differences depending on the RCM used. Differences are also observed between the series generated by imposing only the changes in means or also in standard deviations. An increase in rainfall variability, as expected under future scenarios, could increase recharge rates for a given mean rainfall because the number of extreme events increases. For some RCMs, the simulations predict total recharge increases over the historical values, even though climate change would produce a reduction in the mean rainfall and an increased mean temperature. A method based on a multi‐objective analysis is proposed to provide ensemble predictions that give more value to the information obtained from the best calibrated models. The ensemble of predictions estimates a reduction in mean annual recharge of 14% for scenario A2 and 58% for scenario A1B. Lower values of future recharge are obtained if only the change in the mean is imposed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS) in the marine environment: prioritizing HNS that pose major risk in a European context

Increases in the maritime transportation of Hazardous and Noxious Substances (HNS), alongside the need for an effective response to HNS spills have led environmental managers and the scientific community to focus attention on HNS spill preparedness and responsiveness. In the context of the ARCOPOL project, a weight-of-evidence approach was developed aimed at prioritizing HNS that pose major environmental risks to European waters. This approach takes into consideration the occurrence probability of HNS spills in European Atlantic waters and the severity of exposure associated with their physico-chemical properties and toxicity to marine organisms. Additionally, a screening analysis of the toxicological information available for the prioritization of HNS was performed. Here we discuss the need for a prioritization methodology to select HNS that are likely to cause severe marine environmental effects as an essential step towards the establishment of a more effective preparedness and response to HNS incidents.     

Assessment of a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework as a practical tool to support marine planning

For the UK continental shelf we developed a Bayesian Belief Network-GIS framework to visualise relationships between cumulative human pressures, sensitive marine landscapes and landscape vulnerability, to assess the consequences of potential marine planning objectives, and to map uncertainty-related changes in management measures. Results revealed that the spatial assessment of footprints and intensities of human activities had more influence on landscape vulnerabilities than the type of landscape sensitivity measure used. We addressed questions regarding consequences of potential planning targets, and necessary management measures with spatially-explicit assessment of their consequences. We conclude that the BN-GIS framework is a practical tool allowing for the visualisation of relationships, the spatial assessment of uncertainty related to spatial management scenarios, the engagement of different stakeholder views, and enables a quick update of new spatial data and relationships. Ultimately, such BN-GIS based tools can support the decision-making process used in adaptive marine management.     

The Wadden Sea in transition - consequences of sea level rise

The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the future morphological development of the Wadden Sea (North Sea) is investigated by means of extensive process-resolving numerical simulations. A new sediment and morphodynamic module was implemented in the well-established 3D circulation model GETM. A number of different validations are presented, ranging from an idealized 1D channel over a semi-idealized 2D Wadden Sea basin to a fully coupled realistic 40-year hindcast without morphological amplification of the Sylt-Rømøbight, a semi-enclosed subsystem of the Wadden Sea. Based on the results of the hindcast, four distinct future scenarios covering the period 2010–2100 are simulated. While these scenarios differ in the strength of SLR and wind forcing, they also account for an expected increase of tidal range over the coming century. The results of the future projections indicate a transition from a tidal-flat-dominated system toward a lagoon-like system, in which large fractions of the Sylt-Rømøbight will remain permanently covered by water. This has potentially dramatic implications for the unique ecosystem of the Wadden Sea. Although the simulations also predict an increased accumulation of sediment in the back-barrier basin, this accumulation is far too weak to compensate for the rise in mean sea level.     

Relative role and extent of marine and groundwater inundation on a dune‐dominated barrier island under sea‐level rise scenarios

Climate change and sea‐level rise will have severe impacts on coastal water resources around the world. However, whereas the influence of marine inundation is well documented in the literature, the impact of groundwater inundation on coastal communities is not well known. Here, core analysis, groundwater monitoring, and ground penetrating radar are utilized to assess the groundwater regime of the surficial aquifer on Bogue Banks Barrier Island (USA). Then, geospatial techniques are used to assess the relative roles and extents of groundwater and marine inundation on the dune‐dominated barrier island under sea‐level rise scenarios of 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0 m above current conditions by 2100. Additionally, the effects of rising water tables on onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) are modelled using the projected sea‐level rise scenarios. The results indicate that the surficial aquifer comprising fine to medium sands responds quickly to precipitation. Water‐level measurements reveal varying thicknesses of the vadose zone (>3 to 0 m) and several groundwater mounds with radial flow patterns. Results from projected sea‐level rise scenarios suggest that owing to aquifer properties and morphology of the island, groundwater inundation may occur at the same rate as marine inundation. Furthermore, the area inundated by groundwater may be as significant as that affected by marine inundation. The results also show that the proportion of land in the study area where OWTS may be perpetually compromised by rising water tables under worst case scenarios may range from ~43 to ~54% over an 86‐year‐period. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of “Grain for Green” reforestation program on rural sustainability in China: an AHP approach to peasant consensus of public land use policies

Climate change will affect the regional ability to achieve the poverty reduction and sustainable development (SD) objectives. Thus, any action plans to achieve these objectives should make climate change policies an integral part of the development planning process. The best practices and measures of climate change policies should be implemented to ensure regional or community sustainability. In this paper, a case study that promotes the integration of carbon sequestration into sustainable forest management and rural development plan with multi-stakeholders participation is introduced. To achieve SD goals, appropriate tools and methods are required to address impacts of alternative forest land uses on carbon sequestration and rural sustainability, and to prioritise land use options. A range of forest land use scenarios that address various aspects of the forest carbon sequestration rate and rural sustainability are evaluated against a SD indicator system. Planting vegetation is one of the practical approaches in mitigating global warming by sequestrating carbon from the atmosphere to plant matter and soil. In order to protect environment, reduce excessive soil erosion, and decrease the propensity and frequency of flooding and other natural disasters, China has initiated nationwide pivotal projects such as “Grain for Green” to mitigate exacerbated environmental deterioration and degradation. Such ecological programs may affect the socio-economic livelihoods of peasants and the economic activities of the whole region. The impact and economic uncertainty associated with such projects urge policy makers to include all stakeholders in the decision making process so that an agreeable solution towards sustainable rural development can be identified. This study uses Liping County in Guizhou province as a case study to identify a consensus among peasants regarding planting selected tree-species. Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used as a multicriteria decision making tool to rank sustainability criteria and determine the priority of options. The method helps policy makers to understand what the peasants want to achieve by participating in a Grain for Green program and what their priorities are with respect to particular types of vegetation. The case study finds that economic and financial concerns are the most important drivers of the decision of which trees to plant among the peasants who took part in the implementation of the Grain for Green program. As a result of this, Gingko, redpine, and Chinese chestnut were the predominant trees planted under the program. The integrated assessment based on the AHP method provides an effective tool to help understand how economic, social and environmental factors are related to each other in affecting the nature of rural sustainability.