Relocation of Swarm Events in the June 1987 Earthquake Sequence from the Lake Aswan Area in Egypt

--We have examined the digital waveform data and relocated a number of events within the June 1987 earthquake swarm, which occurred beneath the northern part of Lake Aswan, 70 km southwest of the Aswan High Dam in Egypt. This swarm occurred between June 17th and 19th with a maximum magnitude event of "M_L"=3.5.¶Cross correlation between a chosen master and the analyzed events has been carried out on seismograms from stations of the Aswan network. The cross correlation demonstrates the presence of a difference in both the P wave ((t_p) and the S wave ((t_s) arrival times at each station in the network relative to the arrival times of the master event at the same stations. (t_p ranges between т.15 and 0.11 second, while (t_s ranges between т.17 and 0.11 second.¶The primary interpretation is that the se time differences represent an error in the manually picking arrival times. Then, (t_p and (t_s values for each event result from a change in the hypocentral parameters from those of the master event, assuming the P- and S-wave velocity distribution remains constant during the swarm activity. This interpretation enables us to determine the relative distribution of hypocenters with respect to the hypocentral location of the master event. We present the results from a swarm of 9 events demonstrating they originate from a nearly unique location, rather than the zone identified from the preliminary locations which used manually picked onset times.     

Earthquake Hazard Parameters Estimated in Crete Island and the Adjacent Area

—?Earthquake hazard parameters are estimated by the application of the maximum likelihood method. The technique is based on a procedure which utilizes data of different quality, e.g., those in which the uncertainty in the assessment of the magnitudes is great and those in which the magnitudes are computed with great precision. In other words the data were extracted from both historical (incomplete) and recorded (complete) files. The historical part of the catalogue contains only the strongest events, whereas the complete part can be divided into several sub-catalogues; each one assumed to be complete above a specified magnitude threshold. Uncertainty in the determination of magnitudes has also been taken into account. The method allows us to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters which are the maximum regional magnitude, M _max, the activity rate, λ, of the seismic events and the well known value β (b=β?log?e), which is the slope of the magnitude-frequency relationship. All these parameters are of physical significance. The mean return periods, RP, of earthquakes with a certain lower magnitude M?≥?m are also determined. The method is applied in the Island of Crete and the adjacent area, where catastrophic earthquakes are known from the historical era. The earthquake hazard of the whole area is divided in a cellular manner which allow the analysis of the localized hazard parameters and the representation of their regional variation. The seismic hazard analysis, which is expressed by: (a) The annual probability of exceedance of a specified value of magnitude and (b) the return periods (in years) that are expected for given magnitudes, for shallow events is finally performed for shallow events. This hazard analysis is useful for both theoretical and practical reasons and provides a tool for earthquake resistant design in both areas of low and high seismicity.     

The Dinar Earthquake (Mw = 6.2; October 1, 1995; Afyon-Turkey) and Earthquake Hazard of the Dinar-Çivril Fault

—A moderately strong earthquake (M _w = 6.2) occurred in the town of Dinar at 17.57 UT on October 1, 1995, taking the lives of 90 people and damaging about 4500 buildings. Its epicenter is located near the Dinar-Çivril fault and its focal mechanism is linked to a northeast-southwesterly tensional stress field arising from the interaction between the subducting African plate and the overriding Aegean-Anatolian plate in the eastern Mediterranean.¶Surface cracks of the October 1 earthquake have been observed 10 km continuously along the Dinar-Çivril fault. The cracks have displayed a mode of dip-slip; however, some have also indicated lateral slip. The different modes of slip are generally in agreement with the fault plane solution and are indicators of the complex nature of the rupture process.¶In investigating the earthquake hazard of the Dinar-Çivril fault and proximity, the maximum likelihood method was used to estimate seismic hazard parameters of b-value, seismicity activity rate λ _m and the expected maximum magnitude M _max?. The data consisted of the historical data covering the period between 1800–1900 and instrumental data between 1900 and 1992. This method, allowing use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing both historical and instrumental earthquake data, yielded values of 0.70, 1.92 and 7.14 for b, λ _m and M _max?, respectively. The recurrence time estimated for an earthquake of a magnitude of M _w = 6.2 is 123 years. The non-occurrence probabilities of such an earthquake in 1 and 50 years are 0.21 and 0.04, respectively.     

Optimized Seismic Threshold Monitoring – Part 1: Regional Processing

v--v Continuous seismic threshold monitoring is a technique that has been developed over the past several years to assess the upper magnitude limit of possible seismic events that might have occurred in a geographical target area. The method provides continuous time monitoring at a given confidence level, and can be applied in a site-specific, regional or global context.¶In this paper (Part 1) and a companion paper (Part 2) we address the problem of optimizing the site-specific approach in order to achieve the highest possible automatic monitoring capability of particularly interesting areas. The present paper addresses the application of the method to cases where a regional monitoring network is available. We have in particular analyzed events from the region around the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site to develop a set of optimized processing parameters for the arrays SPITS, ARCES, FINES, and NORES. From analysis of the calibration events we have derived values for beam-forming steering delays, filter bands, short-term average (STA) lengths, phase travel times (P and S waves), and amplitude-magnitude relationships for each array. By using these parameters for threshold monitoring of the Novaya Zemlya testing area, we obtain a monitoring capability varying between m_b 2.0 and 2.5 during normal noise conditions.¶The advantage of using a network, rather than a single station or array, for monitoring purposes becomes particularly evident during intervals with high global seismic activity (aftershock sequences), high seismic noise levels (wind, water waves, ice cracks) or station outages. For the time period November-December 1997, all time intervals with network magnitude thresholds exceeding m_b 2.5 were visually analyzed, and we found that all of these threshold peaks could be explained by teleseismic, regional, or local signals from events outside the Novaya Zemlya testing area. We could therefore conclude within the confidence level provided by the method, that no seismic event of magnitude exceeding 2.5 occurred at the Novaya Zemlya test site during this two-month time interval.¶As an example of particular interest in a monitoring context, we apply optimized threshold processing of the SPITS array for a time interval around 16 August 1997 m_b 3.5 event in the Kara Sea. We show that this processing enables us to detect a second, smaller event from the same site (m_b 2.6), occurring about 4 hours later. This second event was not defined automatically by standard processing.     

Optimized Seismic Threshold Monitoring – Part 2: Teleseismic Processing

v--vThis second paper (Part 2) pertaining to optimized site-specific threshold monitoring addresses the application of the method to regions covered by a teleseismic or a combined regional-teleseismic network. In the first paper (Part 1) we developed the method for the general case, and demonstrated its application to an area well-covered by a regional network (the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site). In the present paper, we apply the method to the Indian and Pakistani nuclear test sites, and show results during the periods of nuclear testing by these two countries in May 1998. Since the coverage by regional stations in these areas is poor, an optimized approach requires the use of selected, high-quality stations at teleseismic distances.¶To optimize the threshold monitoring of these test sites, we use as calibration events either one of the nuclear explosions or a nearby earthquake. From analysis of the calibration events we derive values for array beamforming steering delays, filter bands, short-term averages (STA) lengths, phase travel times (P waves), and amplitude-magnitude relationships for each station. By applying these parameters, we obtain a monitoring capability of both test sites ranging from m_b 2.8-3.0 using teleseismic stations only. When including the nearby Nilore station to monitor the Indian tests, we show that the threshold can be reduced by about 0.4 magnitude units. In particular, we demonstrate that the Indian tests on 13 May, 1998, which were not detected by any known seismic station, must have corresponded to a magnitude (m_b) of less than 2.4.¶We also discuss the effect of a nearby aftershock sequence on the monitoring capability for the Pakistani test sites. Such an aftershock sequence occurred in fact on the day of the last Pakistani test (30 May, 1998), following a large (m_b 5.5) earthquake in Afghanistan located about 1100 km from the test site. We show that the threshold monitoring technique has sufficient resolution to suppress the signals from these interfering aftershocks without significantly affecting the true peak of the nuclear explosion on the threshold trace.     

Probabilistic Appraisal of Earthquake Hazard Parameters Deduced from a Bayesian Approach in the Northwest Frontier of the Himalayas

A straightforward Bayesian statistic is applied in five broad seismogenic source zones of the northwest frontier of the Himalayas to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitude M _max, β value of G–R relationship and seismic activity rate or intensity λ). For this purpose, a reliable earthquake catalogue which is homogeneous for M _W ≥ 5.0 and complete during the period 1900 to 2010 is compiled. The Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya zone has been further divided into two seismic zones of shallow (h ≤ 70 km) and intermediate depth (h > 70 km) according to the variation of seismicity with depth in the subduction zone. The estimated earthquake hazard parameters by Bayesian approach are more stable and reliable with low standard deviations than other approaches, but the technique is more time consuming. In this study, quantiles of functions of distributions of true and apparent magnitudes for future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years are calculated with confidence limits for probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % in all seismogenic source zones. The zones of estimated M _max greater than 8.0 are related to the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges, Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt; suggesting more seismically hazardous regions in the examined area. The lowest value of M _max (6.44) has been calculated in Northern-Pakistan and Hazara syntaxis zone which have estimated lowest activity rate 0.0023 events/day as compared to other zones. The Himalayan Frontal Thrusts belt exhibits higher earthquake magnitude (8.01) in next 100-years with 90 % probability level as compared to other zones, which reveals that this zone is more vulnerable to occurrence of a great earthquake. The obtained results in this study are directly useful for the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the examined region of Himalaya.     

Seismic Potential of the Main Active Faults in the Granada Basin (Southern Spain)

-- The main active faults of the Granada Basin are located in its central-eastern sector, where the most important tectonic activity is concentrated, uplifting its eastern part and sinking the western border. Several parameters related to the seismic potentiality of these active, or in some cases probably active, faults in this basin are used for the first time. Many of these faults can generate earthquakes with magnitudes larger than 6.0 M_W, although this is not the general case. The fault situated to the N of Sierra Tejeda, probably the one responsible for the big earthquake of 25/12/1884, stands out, because it could generate an earthquake with magnitude 6.9 M_W. Although at present all the data needed are not fully known, we consider that the final results show, as a whole, the average expected return periods of the faults in the Granada Basin.     

Calibration of the Regional Crustal Waveguide and the Retrieval of Source Parameters Using Waveform Modeling

v--vRegional crustal waveguide calibration is essential to the retrieval of source parameters and the location of smaller (M < 4.8) seismic events. This path calibration of regional seismic phases is strongly dependent on the accuracy of hypocentral locations of calibration (or master) events. This information can be difficult to obtain, especially for smaller events. Generally, explosion or quarry blast generated travel-time data with known locations and origin times are useful for developing the path calibration parameters, but in many regions such data sets are scanty or do not exist. We present a method which is useful for regional path calibration independent of such data, i.e. with earthquakes, which is applicable for events down to M_w = 4 and which has successfully been applied in India, central Asia, western Mediterranean, North Africa, Tibet and the former Soviet Union. These studies suggest that reliably determining depth is essential to establishing accurate epicentral location and origin time for events. We find that the error in source depth does not necessarily trade-off only with the origin time for events with poor azimuthal coverage, but with the horizontal location as well, thus resulting in poor epicentral locations. For example, hypocenters for some events in central Asia were found to move from their fixed-depth locations by about 20 km. Such errors in location and depth will propagate into path calibration parameters, particularly with respect to travel times. The modeling of teleseismic depth phases (pP, sP) yields accurate depths for earthquakes down to magnitude M_w = 4.7. This M_w threshold can be lowered to four if regional seismograms are used in conjunction with a calibrated velocity structure model to determine depth, with the relative amplitude of the P_nl waves to the surface waves and the interaction of regional sPmP and pPmP phases being good indicators of event depths. We also found that for deep events a seismic phase which follows an S-wave path to the surface and becomes critical, developing a head wave by S to P conversion is also indicative of depth. The detailed characteristic of this phase is controlled by the crustal waveguide. The key to calibrating regionalized crustal velocity structure is to determine depths for a set of master events by applying the above methods and then by modeling characteristic features that are recorded on the regional waveforms. The regionalization scheme can also incorporate mixed-path crustal waveguide models for cases in which seismic waves traverse two or more distinctly different crustal structures. We also demonstrate that once depths are established, we need only two-stations travel-time data to obtain reliable epicentral locations using a new adaptive grid-search technique which yields locations similar to those determined using travel-time data from local seismic networks with better azimuthal coverage.     

Updated earthquake catalogue for seismic hazard analysis in Pakistan

A reliable and homogenized earthquake catalogue is essential for seismic hazard assessment in any area. This article describes the compilation and processing of an updated earthquake catalogue for Pakistan. The earthquake catalogue compiled in this study for the region (quadrangle bounded by the geographical limits 40–83° N and 20–40° E) includes 36,563 earthquake events, which are reported as 4.0–8.3 moment magnitude (M_W) and span from 25 AD to 2016. Relationships are developed between the moment magnitude and body, and surface wave magnitude scales to unify the catalogue in terms of magnitude M_W. The catalogue includes earthquakes from Pakistan and neighbouring countries to minimize the effects of geopolitical boundaries in seismic hazard assessment studies. Earthquakes reported by local and international agencies as well as individual catalogues are included. The proposed catalogue is further used to obtain magnitude of completeness after removal of dependent events by using four different algorithms. Finally, seismicity parameters of the seismic sources are reported, and recommendations are made for seismic hazard assessment studies in Pakistan.     

Application of Regional Phase Amplitude Tomography to Seismic Verification

v--vWe have applied tomographic techniques to amplitude data to quantify regional phase path effects for use in source discrimination studies. Tomography complements interpolation (kriging) methods by extending our ability to apply path corrections into regions devoid of calibration events, as well as raising levels of confidence in the corrections because of their more physical basis. Our tomography technique solves for resolvable combinations of attenuation, source-generation, site and spreading terms. First difference regularization is used to remove singularities and reduce noise effects.¶In initial tests the technique was applied to a data set of 1488, 1.0 Hz, P_g/L_g amplitude ratios from 13 stations for paths inside a 30° by 40° box covering western China and surrounding regions. Tomography reduced variance 60%, relative to the power-law distance correction traditionally applied to amplitude ratios. Relative P_g/L_g attenuation varied with geologic region, with low values in Tibet, intermediate values in basins and high values for platforms and older crust. Spatial patterns were consistent with previous path effect studies in Asia, especially local earthquake coda-Q. Relative spreading was consistent with expected values for P_g and L_g. Relative site terms were similar to one another, yet some tradeoff with attenuation was evident.¶Tomography residuals followed systematic trends with distance, which may result from the evolution from direct to coda phases, focusing, model tradeoff or data windowing effects. Examination of the residuals using a kriging interpolator showed coherent geographical variations, indicating unmodeled path effects. The residual patterns often follow geological boundaries, which could result from attenuating zones or minor blockages that are too thin to be resolved, or that have anisotropic effect on regional phases. These results will guide efforts to reparameterize tomography models to more effectively represent regional wave attenuation and blockage. The interpolated residuals also can be combined with predictions of the tomographic model to account for path effects in discrimination studies on a station by station basis.     

A Probabilistic Assessment of Earthquake Hazard Parameters in NW Himalaya and the Adjoining Regions

The maximum likelihood estimation method is applied to study the geographical distribution of earthquake hazard parameters and seismicity in 28 seismogenic source zones of NW Himalaya and the adjoining regions. For this purpose, we have prepared a reliable, homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1500–2010. The technique used here allows the data to contain either historical or instrumental era or even a combination of the both. In this study, the earthquake hazard parameters, which include maximum regional magnitude (M _max), mean seismic activity rate (λ), the parameter b (or β?=?b/log e) of Gutenberg–Richter (G–R) frequency-magnitude relationship, the return periods of earthquakes with a certain threshold magnitude along with their probabilities of occurrences have been calculated using only instrumental earthquake data during the period 1900–2010. The uncertainties in magnitude have been also taken into consideration during the calculation of hazard parameters. The earthquake hazard in the whole NW Himalaya region has been calculated in 28 seismogenic source zones delineated on the basis of seismicity level, tectonics and focal mechanism. The annual probability of exceedance of earthquake (activity rate) of certain magnitude is also calculated for all seismogenic source zones. The obtained earthquake hazard parameters were geographically distributed in all 28 seismogenic source zones to analyze the spatial variation of localized seismicity parameters. It is observed that seismic hazard level is high in Quetta-Kirthar-Sulaiman region in Pakistan, Hindukush-Pamir Himalaya region and Uttarkashi-Chamoli region in Himalayan Frontal Thrust belt. The source zones that are expected to have maximum regional magnitude (M _max) of more than 8.0 are Quetta, southern Pamir, Caucasus and Kashmir-Himanchal Pradesh which have experienced such magnitude of earthquakes in the past. It is observed that seismic hazard level varies spatially from one zone to another which suggests that the examined regions have high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonic complexity.     

Application of a Bayesian Approach for Estimation of Seismic Hazard Parameters in Some Regions of the Circum-Pacific Belt

—?The maximum possible (regional) magnitude M_max and other seismic hazard parameters like β which is the slope of Gutenberg-Richter law, and λ which is the intensity (rate) of seismic activity are estimated in eight seismic regions of the west side of the circum-Pacific belt. The Bayesian approach, as described by (Pisarenko et?al., 1996; Pisarenko and Lyubushin, 1997, 1999) is a straightforward technique of estimating the seismic hazard. The main assumptions for the method applied are a Poissonian character of seismic events flow, a frequency-magnitude law of Gutenberg-Richter's type with cutoff maximum value for the estimated parameter and a seismic catalog, which have a rather sizeable number of events. We also estimated the quantiles of the probabilistic distribution of the “apparent” M_max for future given time-length intervals.     

Slug Flow--A Possible Explanation for Hydrogeochemical Earthquake Precursors at Bad Brambach, Germany

--Extensive hydrogeological, geochemical, radiometric and hydro-isotope investigations in the Vogtland region, Germany, since 1989 suggest a fluid connection between a special epicentral area (focal depth: 3-15 km; M_L < 5) and a mineral spring at Bad Brambach. Twenty-six hydrogeochemical anomalies are related to earthquakes/swarmquakes of that epicentral area near Novy Kostel (CZ) during the last 9 years. The anomalies were originated by a slug-flow process in the fluid-filled fracture system near the surface. The gas component of the observed fluid (99 vol. % CO₂) is of upper mantle/crustal origin. The fluid transport pathway to the surface is the seismically active Mariánské Lázné fault zone. The interpretation suggests an influence of the fluid system due to earthquake preparation processes.     

An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau based on the Gumbel III distribution

The Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2013 with magnitude M _w ? ≥?4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1° late?×?1° long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M _w 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M _w 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.     

Regional Variations of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">ω</Emphasis>-upper Bound Magnitude of GIII Distribution in the Iranian Plateau

The Iranian Plateau does not appear to be a single crustal block, but an assemblage of zones comprising the Alborz—Azerbaijan, Zagros, Kopeh—Dagh, Makran, and Central and East Iran. The Gumbel’s III asymptotic distribution method (GIII) and maximum magnitude expected by Kijko—Sellevoll method is applied in order to check the potentiality of the each seismogenic zone in the Iranian Plateau for the future occurrence of maximum magnitude (M_max). For this purpose, a homogeneous and complete seismicity database of the instrumental period during 1900–2012 is used in 29 seismogenic zones of the examined region. The spatial mapping of hazard parameters (upper bound magnitude (ω), most probable earthquake magnitude in next 100 years (M₁₀₀) and maximum magnitude expected by maximum magnitude estimated by Kijko—Sellevoll method (max M_{K ? S}^max) reveals that Central and East Iran, Alborz and Azerbaijan, Kopeh—Dagh and SE Zagros are a dangerous place for the next occurrence of a large earthquake.     

Estimation of Seismic Hazard Parameters for the Himalayas and its Vicinity from Complete Data Files

—The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters has been made in the Himalayas and its surrounding areas on the basis of a procedure which utilizes data containing complete files of the most recent earthquakes. The entire earthquake catalogue used covers the period from 1900–1990. The maximum regional magnitude M _max?, the activity rate of the seismic event λ, the mean return period R of earthquakes with a certain lower magnitude M _max≥ m along with their probability of occurrence, as well as the parameter b of of Gutenberg Richter magnitude-frequency relationship, have been determined for six different seismic zones of the Himalayas and its vicinity. It is shown that in general the hazard is higher in the zone NEI and BAN than the other four zones. The high difference of the b parameter and the hazard level from zone to zone reflect the high seismotectonic complexity and crustal heterogeneity.     

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq Using Complete Earthquake Catalogue Files

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29°–38.5° N and longitude 39°–50° E containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905–2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by Stepp (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below M_s=4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones. A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes. The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were established and the minimum magnitude of complete reporting (M_c) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq the M_c was estimated to be about M_s=4.0 while S11 shows the lowest M_c to be about M_s=3.5 and the highest M_c of about M_s=4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate , b value, maximum regional magnitude m_max) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower magnitude m_min m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude m_max was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.The large variation of the b parameter and the hazard level from zone to zone reflects crustal heterogeneity and the high seismotectonic complexity. The seismic hazard near the source boundaries is directly and strongly affected by the change in the delineation of these boundaries. The forces, through which the geological structure along the plate boundary in Eastern and Northeastern Iraq are evolved, are still active causing stress-strain accumulation, deformation and in turn producing higher probabilities of earthquake activity. Thus, relatively large destructive earthquakes are expected in this region. The study is intended to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches and to pave the path for the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard in this region.     

Historical intermediate-depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean Sea Benioff zone: modeling their anomalous macroseismic patterns with stochastic ground-motion simulations

We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, I_MM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of V_S30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information.     

Source Characteristics of the 22 January 2003 M w?=?7.5 Tecom��n, Mexico, Earthquake: New Insights

Aftershock locations, source parameters and slip distribution in the coupling zone between the overriding North American and subducted Rivera and Cocos plates were calculated for the 22 January 2003 Tecomán earthquake. Aftershock locations lie north of the El Gordo Graben with a northwest-southeast trend along the coast and superimposed on the rupture areas of the 1932 (M _w?=?8.2) and 1995 (M _w?=?8.0) earthquakes. The Tecomán earthquake ruptured the northwest sector of the Colima gap, however, half of the gap remains unbroken. The aftershock area has a rectangular shape of 42?±?2 by 56?±?2?km with a shallow dip of roughly 12° of the Wadati-Benioff zone. Fault geometry calculated with the Náb??lek (1984) inversion procedure is: (strike, dip, rake)?=?(277°, 27°, 78°). From the teleseimic body wave spectra and assuming a circular fault model, we estimated source duration of 20?±?2?s, a stress drop of 5.4?±?2.5?MPa and a seismic moment of 2.7?±?.7?×?10²⁰?Nm. The spatial slip distribution on the fault plane was estimated using new additional near field strong motion data (54?km from the epicenter). We confirm their main conclusions, however we found four zones of seismic moment release clearly separated. One of them, not well defined before, is located toward the coast down dip. This observation is the result of adding new data in the inversion. We calculated a maximum slip of 3.2?m, a source duration of 30?s and a seismic moment of 1.88?×?10²⁰?Nm.     

Site-specific Seismic Hazard Estimation in the Main Seismogenic Zones of North Algeria

—?The procedure developed by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989, 1992) and Kijko and Graham (1998, 1999) is used to estimate seismic hazard parameters in north Algeria. The area-specific seismic hazard parameters that were calculated consist of the b value of the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relation, the activity rate λ(M) for events above the magnitude M, and the maximum regional magnitude M _max. These parameters were calculated for each of the six seismogenic zones of north Algeria. The site-specific seismic hazard was calculated in terms of the maximum possible PGA at hypothetical engineering structures (HES), situated in each of the six seismogenic zones with coordinates corresponding with those of the six most industrial and populated cities in Algeria.