山洪视角下社区韧性影响因素及其定量分析

山洪灾害具有广泛性、突发性、破坏性等特征,开展山洪易发区的社区韧性评估,从而提高灾害应对能力是当前防灾减灾的前沿热点和难点。论文提出了一套多学科的综合方法：① 利用中介效应明晰了山洪视角下社区韧性评价体系各指标间的定量化传递关系;② 构建了基于决策实验室分析和解释结构模型的耦合数学模型,确定社区韧性影响因素的多级递阶解释结构模型,分析社区韧性的差异化影响因素;③ 采用信息扩散方法,定量分析山洪灾害社区韧性的变化趋势并排序。以粤北山洪易发区为例,从城镇、村落、城乡结合部3种类型社区进行灾害韧性分析。结果表明：山洪视角下的社区韧性指标体系是一个多维度多层次的复杂网络系统,包括环境、社会、心理、制度和信息沟通5个方面;不同类型社区灾害韧性的直接影响因素呈差异化特征,而供排水设施建设和洪灾应急演练为社区韧性的根本影响因素,对增强山洪视角下社区韧性发挥本质性作用;由于调研村落多位于山洪频发区,居民防范灾害、减轻灾害影响的意识较强,村落较城镇和城乡结合社区呈现出更高的韧性。研究可为提升粤北山洪易发区社区韧性及社区防灾减灾能力提供科学参考,该综合分析方法亦可为其他类型灾害的精细化防灾减灾提供支持。     

Response of a Resilient Community to Natural Disasters: The Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal, 2015

The ability of a community to withstand and recover from adversities including natural and man-made disasters has emerged as a major policy issue in recent years. This research aims to assess the role of institutional initiatives in building resilient communities and their response to natural disasters like the Gorkha earthquake in Nepal in 2015. The work is based on data collected from primary and secondary sources along with field observations. It is evident that resilient communities are equipped with greater coping capacities in the face of natural disasters and have reduced vulnerability to future hazards. Institutional capacity building and resilient construction including the School Earthquake Safety Program ensured better disaster preparedness. The traditional open spaces and building designs added to the structural resilience. There is, however, a need to build back better and to communicate earthquake-resistant designs to the affected communities.     

A GIS-based approach to identify the spatial variability of social vulnerability to seismic hazard in Italy

This paper argues for a multidisciplinary framework to assess the relationship between environmental processes and social sciences that can be adapted to any geographic location. This includes both physical (earthquake hazard) and human (social vulnerability) dimensions in the context of disaster risk reduction. Disasters varies drastically depending on the local context. Indeed, the probability of a natural disaster having more devastating effects in one place than in another depends on the local vulnerability components of the affected society (cultural, social and economic). Therefore, there is an important correlation between the potential risk and the social resistance and resilience of a specific place, thus the disaster response varies according to the social fabric. In this context, the evaluation of social vulnerability is a crucial point in order to understand the ability of a society (studied at individual, household or community level) to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of natural disaster events. Within this framework, the paper discusses how it is possible to integrate social vulnerability into the seismic risk analysis in Italy. Specifically, socioeconomic indicators were used to assess and mapping social vulnerability index. Afterwards, a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach was applied to identify the spatial variability of social vulnerability to seismic hazard. Through the use of a risk matrix, the classes of a social vulnerability index map were combined with those of a seismic hazard map proposed by INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology). Finally, a qualitative social vulnerability exposure map to an earthquake hazard was produced, highlighting areas with high seismic and social vulnerability levels. Results suggest the importance of the integration of social vulnerability studies into seismic risk mitigation policies, emergency management and territorial planning to reduce the impact of disasters.     

广东省农村居民生计恢复力测度及影响因素分析

从生计质量、生计促进、生计供给及灾害压力4个维度构建气象灾害影响下农村居民生计恢复力评估模型,运用结构动力学方法测度广东省农村居民生计恢复力水平,并识别生计恢复力的主要影响因素。结果表明：① 广东省农村居民生计恢复力水平呈现周期性变化,与生计质量、生计促进、生计供给之间存在显著正相关,与灾害压力存在较强的负相关,重大气象灾害对农村居民生计恢复力的影响作用仍然较为显著;② 人均地区生产总值、农村人均消费水平、人均教育支出、千人卫生技术人员、节水灌溉面积和水土流失综合治理面积对生计恢复力均具有正向促进作用,其中水土流失综合治理面积和节水灌溉面积影响最为显著;③ 政府宜优先从生计保障、生计促进以及抗灾应对3个维度,优化广东省农村居民生计水平,并且着重提升抗灾应对能力。既要注重临时性救助扶持措施,也要注重农村地区长期实力提升,从整体上提升农村居民应对灾害风险的能力,增强广东省农村居民的生计恢复力。     

Shifting relationships to place: a relational place-based perspective on SES resilience

Disasters literally and figuratively shake the foundations of place in a community. If place is seen as both a construction of and contributor to identity, then the impact of disasters can result in not only physical displacement but can also fundamentally displace community and individual identity. Despite this, resilience theory, a widely used approach for dealing with disaster, provides little empirical or theoretical background on the role of place in shaping response and recovery from disruption. On 22 February 2011, the ground beneath the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, shook, destabilizing the physical and psychological landscape and displacing the foundations of place identity for many communities. Through the case study of Project Lyttelton, a grassroots community organization close to the epicenter of the 22 February earthquake, this paper seeks to understand and explore the nuances of place and identity, and its role in shaping resilience to such displacing events. We argue that place is an integral component of social systems that requires consideration within resilience frameworks in order for social factors to be properly integrated. From this, we make the case for increased awareness of the connections between these processes and the related consequences for post-disaster realities at both the community and policy level.     

泥石流灾害风险评估理论与方法研究

近年来,频繁发生的泥石流灾害给中国部分地区造成了巨大的破坏。泥石流点多面广、成灾迅速,难以对其进行准确的监测预报,风险评估就显得尤为重要。本文从泥石流灾害风险的构成要素、危险性评估研究和承灾体脆弱程度评估研究等方面分析了泥石流灾害风险的研究现状。从当前的研究现状中可以发现：灾害风险公式得到广大学者普遍认同,泥石流危险性评估方法也相对比较成熟;但在泥石流灾害对承灾体的致损风险机理分析方面研究尚需深入,危险性评估中如何实现从点评价向面评价过渡还需进一步探讨,对承灾体脆弱性研究也需要引起重视。因此,在今后的评估研究中,需要加强这些方面的研究探索,进一步提高泥石流灾害风险评估结果的可信度,提高其实用性。     

社区恢复力研究进展及其地理学研究议题

随着人口、资源与环境的矛盾日益加深,灾害已成为可持续发展的重要障碍。在这一背景下,恢复力成为推动社会经济系统可持续发展的新理念和新范式。恢复力研究的范式也由早期的生态恢复力逐渐转向社区恢复力的研究。现有的社区恢复力研究成果主要集中在概念内涵探索、影响因素识别、基于客观指标和基于行动者感知的社区恢复力测度等方面。迄今尚未形成公认的可接受的社区恢复力理论框架;对普通乡村社区研究较多,对特定资源依赖型社区恢复力研究较少;对突发性自然灾害对社区恢复力的影响研究较多,对其他灾害和危机对社区恢复力的影响研究较少;社区恢复力测度方法的适用性和科学性仍待加强;社区恢复力关键影响因素的作用机制仍需进一步探索。在此基础上,提出从地理学视角研究社区恢复力的主要议题,包括社区恢复力的形成机制及其区域差异、动态演变过程、影响因素的作用机理、基于人地关系的社区恢复力感知量表以及具有尺度效应的社区恢复力测度指数等。     

基于DEA模型的我国自然灾害区域脆弱性评价

应用数据包络分析(Data Envelopment Analysis,DEA)模型对我国自然灾害的区域脆弱性水平进行研究,在区域灾害系统理论的组织框架下,从区域自然灾害危险性、区域承灾体暴露性和区域自然灾害损失度三个方面构建了区域自然灾害系统的DEA投入产出模型,并利用模型得出的区域自然灾害成灾效率对区域自然灾害的脆弱性进行模拟反映,对我国自然灾害脆弱性的区域分异特征进行分析。研究发现:我国自然灾害脆弱性的整体水平较高,地域格局为西部中部东部,且脆弱性水平与地区经济水平具有明显的负相关关系,经济发达地区的脆弱性相对较低。     

Gypsy Architecture: Houses of the Roma in Eastern Europe

Why is Ortley Beach, New Jersey, known as Superstorm Sandy's ground zero? This article employs qualitative vulnerability analysis to understand why vulnerability of second homes in Ortley Beach resulted in dune failure and slow rebuilding after Sandy. The second-home owners who largely make up the community in Ortley Beach are identified as the key vulnerable group. This group's lack of political representation and financial compensation after Sandy increased house damage and slowed rebuilding. Identifying the level of vulnerability of the majority group in a location is paramount to understanding how the community recovers from a disaster. Such identification can also aid in preparing communities, especially for types of disasters they have not yet encountered.     

A Community Resilience Evaluation and Optimization Strategy based on Stormwater Management

In the context of disaster normalization, the concept of “resilience” has been gradually introduced into the field of disaster prevention and mitigation in urban communities. In order to resist the increasingly frequent disasters caused by extreme weather, it is necessary to shift the focus of building resilient urban communities to the level of stormwater management. Community resilience is a disaster prevention and mitigation capability based on community resources. In order to solve the deficiency of storm and flood management in the current construction of resilient communities in China, it is necessary to establish a quantitative evaluation system to evaluate it. This paper uses the analytic hierarchy process and Delphi method to establish a community resilience evaluation system from the perspectives of community material space level, community management level and individual level. Then three communities in Hefei City, Anhui Province are selected for practical application of the system, and corresponding optimization and transformation strategies are proposed. The results show that: (1) The resilience of community stormwater management is closely related to the integrated environment of the community, the allocation of flood control facilities and the daily disaster prevention and mitigation management; (2) The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation and the awareness of public participation of the residents in all communities are relatively weak, and the communities invest less in the popularization of stormwater management wisdom; and (3) Resilient communities should not only pay attention to the construction of non-engineering disaster prevention measures, but also to the application of small-scale green infrastructure oriented toward stormwater management.     

Spatial-temporal pattern changes of main agriculture natural disasters in China during 1990-2011

China is a disaster prone country, and a comprehensive understanding of change of disasters is very important for China’s agricultural development. In this study, statistical techniques and geographic information system tools are employed to quantify the main agriculture disasters changes and effects on grain production in China during the period of 1990-2011. The results show that China’s grain production was severely affected by disasters including drought, flood, hail, frost and typhoon. The annual area covered by these disasters reached up to 48.7×10⁶ ha during the study period, which accounted for 44.8% of the total sown area, and about 55.1% of the per unit area grain yield change was caused by disasters. In addition, all of the disasters showed high variability, different changing trends, and spatial distribution. Drought, flood, and hail showed significantly decreasing trends, while frost and typhoon showed increasing trends. Drought and flood showed gradual changes and were distributed across the country, and disasters became more diversified from north to south. Drought was the dominated disaster type in northern China, while flood was the most important disaster type in the southern part. Hail was mainly observed in central and northern China, and frost was mainly distributed in southern China. Typhoon was greatly limited to the southeast coast. Furthermore, the resilience of grain production of each province was quite different, especially in several major grain producing areas, such as Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin and Jiangsu, where grain production was seriously affected by disasters. One reason for the difference of resilience of grain production was that grain production was marginalized in developed provinces when the economy underwent rapid development. For China’s agricultural development and grain security, we suggest that governments should place more emphasis on grain production, and invest more money in disaster prevention and mitigation, especially in the major grain producing provinces.     

Can a Simulated Flood Experience Improve Social Resilience to Disasters?

The increase of extreme meteorological phenomena, along with continuous population growth, has led to a rising number of flooding disasters. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop better risk reduction strategies, among which is increased social resilience. Experiencing a disaster is recognized as a factor that positively influences overall community resilience, with particular effects on social resilience; it appears to be more influential than school education. It also has many negative effects, though. Previous studies underline that citizens do not distinguish between different types of experiences. Thus, we investigated whether a simulated experience of a flood can improve social resilience, without being hampered by negative repercussions. The study was executed in five municipalities in three Italian regions involved in the European project LIFE PRIMES, which planned simulation activities for each studied area. Data, collected through the administration of anonymous questionnaires before and after a flood drill, were processed by applying a multicriteria decision analysis tool (PROMETHEE). Results show that the drill significantly augmented perceived social resilience in the smaller studied communities but not in the larger ones, a fact that should be further investigated. Key Words: multicriteria decision analysis, simulated flood experience, social resilience to disasters.     

灾害范式及其历史演进

随着人类社会的发展,人类对灾害的理解发生了很大的变化,灾害范式也在不断的演进,可以归纳为：荒政范式、工程范式、行为范式、社会范式和可持续范式5种灾害范式。通过分析这些灾害范式形成的社会历史背景、灾害的基本观点、关注的主要问题以及减灾防灾的主要对策和措施,得出以下结论：① 在人类社会历史进程中,人们对灾害的认识和理解是逐步深化和发展的;② 灾害范式与减灾实践的发展是互动生成的;③ 范式的产生与转变都有深刻的社会动因;④ 一定时期,存在一定的主流灾害范式,但其他灾害范式的影响依然存在。     

青藏铁路沿线雪灾风险评估

雪灾是青藏铁路及其沿线地区所面临的严重自然灾害之一,对其风险等级进行科学评估,是制定应急方案、确保青藏铁路安全运行的重要基础.本文基于历史雪灾数据和铁路相关数据,选择27项指标构建青藏铁路及其沿线的雪灾综合风险评估体系,对青藏铁路沿线积雪雪灾、雪崩雪灾和风吹雪雪灾的致灾危险性、铁路系统的脆弱性进行了综合分析.分析表明:...     

城市灾害社会脆弱性研究热点问题评述与展望

对城市灾害社会脆弱性研究的热点问题及趋向进行了深入的梳理和总结。研究发现,现阶段社会脆弱性研究已经成为城市灾害脆弱性的重要研究范式,但学者们在城市灾害社会脆弱性综合维度的界定、脆弱性评估方法构建、社会脆弱性与灾害种类相关性判读以及研究尺度选取等方面存在明显的争议。对这些争议进行了深入探讨,并对未来城市灾害社会脆弱性研究进行了展望,以期为中国城市防灾减灾工作提供科学参考。     

基于危机响应的旅游地社区参与研究——以汶川地震后大九寨环线区域为例

旅游业具有一定的脆弱性和敏感性,易遭受突发危机事件的影响,突发危机事件成为制约旅游业可持续发展的重要影响因素之一。如何防范和应对旅游地突发危机事件,保障旅游业健康发展和旅游地社区生计的可持续性显得尤为重要,其中旅游地社区参与是响应和处置突发危机事件的重要利益相关者之一。基于此,论文以汶川地震后大九寨环线区域的九寨沟、青城山和北川县为案例地,采集556份有效样本,运用社区参与理论和社区恢复理论,以结构方程模型为技术方法,构建了基于危机响应视角的以社区参与获益、社区恢复力和社区依恋为维度的社区参与概念模型。得出如下结论：① 震后旅游地社区参与获益和社区恢复力对社区危机响应与支持旅游业发展具有显著正向作用,其中社区恢复力(0.59,P≤0.001)的作用强于社区获益感知(0.30,P≤0.001);② 社区依恋对社区参与起显著正向作用(0.19,P≤0.001),对社区恢复力和社区参与意向起部分中介效应,而对社区参与获益和社区参与意向不起中介效应;③ 论文提出了基于危机响应的社区参与由参与度、支持度和响应度构成,构建了由地方依恋(Attachment)、社区获益(Benefit)和社区恢复力(Resilience)维度组成的社区参与“ABR”框架模型。研究结果一定程度上拓展了旅游地社区参与研究的边界,对旅游地社区参与和危机管理有一定的理论和实践意义。     

小空间尺度农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性评价初探--以湖南省常德市鼎城区双桥坪镇为例

该文探讨小空间尺度农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性评价,阐述针对不同空间尺度建立不同的旱灾承灾体脆弱性评价指标体系的必要性。基于湖南省常德市双桥坪镇的实地调查资料,构建包括耕地平坦指数、水塘灌溉指数等评价指标体系,通过比较各因素的相对重要性确定其权重,对2001年双桥坪镇16个村农业旱灾承灾体脆弱度进行评价。结果表明,该镇旱灾脆弱度较高,西部村庄的旱灾脆弱性普遍小于东部村庄。用同年的实际旱灾灾情损失资料进行验证,吻合程度较高。     

中国灾害风险与贫困互相关效应的理论分析与实证研究

在全球自然灾害频发和贫困长期且不均衡展布的背景下,灾害风险与贫困的联结成为学术界和利益相关者关注的焦点。基于自然灾害风险管理和社会-生态韧性评估的基本原理,系统论述了灾害致贫和贫困致险的作用机理与驱动路径,这种互相关效应称为灾害风险-贫困的“羁绊”;基于中国31个省（自治区、市）2010—2019年的面板数据,运用计量经济学回归分析方法,以证实减轻灾害风险和扶贫脱贫在省域尺度上存在双向加持的作用。结果表明：（1） 较高的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性和脆弱性及复杂的灾害风险情景引发了人员伤亡、资产破坏和经济损失等多重负面影响,最终导致和加剧了经济、机会、能力和文化的多维度贫困;贫困群体农业生计和家庭资产的高暴露性和低韧性放大和累积了灾害风险。（2） 中国在脱贫攻坚和全面建设小康社会的进程中,减灾扶贫和脱贫降险的循环效应显著,籍此带来了乡村振兴、治理现代化等战略的属性加持。（3） 贫困致险的机制较为隐性且主要显现于广布型灾害风险情景,对其无视或轻视可能带来投资减灾失效、学科范式陷阱和不可持续发展等诸多后果。研究结果可为中国的减灾和扶贫协同发展提供理论依据和现实证据,并为贯彻落实经济、政治、文化、社会和生态文明建设“五位一体”战略,实现“双碳”目标和应对全球气候变化提供智力支撑。     

县域尺度下的宝鸡市农业洪水灾害脆弱性评价及区划

为探究农业洪水灾害发生机理和降低洪水灾害对农业生产的不利影响,以宝鸡市为例,利用辖区内2014年降水数据与2015年社会经济统计资料,依据自然灾害脆弱性理论,从易损性和适应性2个因子着手,选取了年降水量等12个分指标,构建了宝鸡市农业洪水灾害脆弱性评价指标体系,运用均方差赋权法确定权重,利用ArcGIS 10.2技术以县域尺度视角对研究区农业洪水灾害脆弱性进行了综合评价与区划。结果表明：（1） 高易损性区主要集中在岐山县、金台区等年降水量较高且耕地比重较大的区县。（2） 高适应性区主要包括渭滨区、金台区等经济发达地区。（3） 高脆弱性区为太白县、千阳县;较高脆弱性区为陇县、麟游县、岐山县、扶风县;中等脆弱性区为陈仓区、凤翔县;低脆弱性区为金台区、渭滨区、眉县、凤县。整体来看,宝鸡市农业水灾高脆弱区集中分布在辖区东北部,宝鸡市政府及有关部门应加强水灾风险研究,根据各区县的地理环境特征和经济发展水平来因地制宜调整土地利用结构和农业种植结构,重视防洪工程建设,降低农业水灾脆弱性以减轻农业洪水灾损。     

气候变暖背景下黄河流域干旱灾害风险空间特征

黄河流域是中国重要的经济带和经济增长极,也是人口密集暴露、特色农业种植和重点生态承载区。在全球变暖和极端降水事件频发的气候背景下,近年来黄河流域干旱灾害变化特征异常突出,新形势下该流域的干旱灾害风险及其对气候变化的响应机制需进一步深入认识。本文利用1960年以来黄河流域122个国家气象站逐日气象数据,结合遥感、社会统计和地理信息数据与技术,基于灾害风险理论,建立致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境脆弱性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力可靠性4个因子的干旱灾害风险指标体系和模型,详细分析了黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化特征和区域差异性及其气候变化的影响机制。结果表明：黄河流域干旱灾害风险分布格局具有明显的地带性和复杂性,流域区域差异显著,总体是中下游风险高于上游,高风险区主要位于黄河流域中下游,致灾因子危险性是黄河流域干旱灾害风险的主导因子,其次是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性,而承灾体易损性贡献量相对最小。干旱灾害风险影响机制的区域差异也很显著,上游是孕灾环境脆弱性和防灾减灾能力可靠性的影响大于致灾因子和易损性,中游则是致灾因子、易损性和防灾减灾能力对干旱灾害风险的贡献度大,下游是干旱致灾因子起主导作用,致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性控制了风险总体格局。黄河流域干旱灾害风险变化规律以及对气候变化的响应异常复杂,流域干旱灾害风险主要受季风气候和复杂地形的影响,还受社会经济发展水平、人口暴露度和水资源供需矛盾等多种要素的影响。该研究对黄河流域生态文明建设,粮食安全保障和国家发展战略具有重要意义。