东北冷涡特征及其关键区的计算机识别

根据东北冷涡的定义及其在等压面上高度的变化特征，利用计算机在等压面网格点高度上自动识别东北冷涡的中心经纬度、中心高度和半径，确定东北冷涡的位置、强度和面积。还给出了在任意形状关键区中自动识别是否存在冷涡的方法。业务应用的实践证明，该方法对东北冷涡特征的识别准确，简便可靠，对观测错误具有较强的识别、处理能力。     

2000-2017年东北冷涡活动气候特征及分析

本文利用美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)提供的2000-2017年5-8月FNL全球再分析资料,结合东北冷涡的定义,对东北冷涡过程气候特征进行统计分析,结果表明:2000-2017年5-8月共有211个东北冷涡过程,其发生频次和冷涡日数均具有明显的年际变化;东北冷涡活动主要集中于44-53°N,122-129°E之间,黑龙江省西北部与内蒙古东部交界的大兴安岭南麓地区以及黑龙江省南部与吉林交界处为东北冷涡活动的密集区,冷涡中心位置呈现明显的季节变化;东北冷涡以单中心为主,多中心冷涡数量随中心个数的增加而显著减少,高频区出现在黑龙江省中南部。     

冬季东北冷涡对北太平洋风暴轴的可能影响

利用NCEP/NCAR逐日再分析资料及由吉林省气象局科研所提供的东北冷涡日历表,以1951/1952—2008/2009年58 a冬季为代表,分析了东北冷涡对北太平洋风暴轴产生的影响及其可能原因。结果表明:1)冬季东北冷涡发生天数变化与北太平洋风暴轴强弱变化呈显著的负相关关系,即当东北冷涡发生天数偏多(偏少)时,北太平洋风暴轴强度减弱(增强)。2)通过Morlet小波交叉谱分析发现,冬季东北冷涡发生天数的年际变化与北太平风暴轴强度变化存在准3 a尺度上的相关关系。3)在冬季,当东北冷涡发生天数偏多时,从东亚到西北太平洋沿岸低层温度降低,低层冷空气位于副热带急流和北太平洋风暴轴上游,且经向上处于两者之间,加之冷平流的作用,给副热带急流与北太平洋风暴轴活动区域带来了正好相反的局地斜压性的改变:副热带急流区域斜压性增加,变得强而窄,位置南压;而北太平洋风暴轴区域斜压性减小,同时由于西北太平洋区域低层温度降低,使得有利于涡动形成的波源效应减弱,风暴轴强度减弱。当东北冷涡发生天数偏少时,则反之。     

东北冷涡的特征、影响及其可能机制的研究

对东北冷涡的天气气候特征及其影响和可能机制进行了回顾与综述。关于东北冷涡的研究主要经历了三个阶段:天气学分析阶段、诊断分析和数值模拟阶段以及东北冷涡的气候效应研究阶段。为了研究东北冷涡的变化及其对我国天气气候的影响,定量表征东北冷涡是一项重要的基础性工作。提出可以利用计算机自动识别东北冷涡过程的持续时间、中心强度(高度场、温度场)及活动区域等特征参数,并由此建立冷涡综合指数,以便更加客观、全面地表征东北冷涡,有利于在实际工作中应用。     

近50年东北冷涡异常特征及其与前汛期华南降水的关系分析

利用中国气象局国家气象信息中心提供的1951～2004年中国160站华南前汛期 (5～6月) 月平均降水、气温资料、欧洲中心提供的ERA-40再分析资料和Reynolds海温资料, 对东北冷涡与华南前汛期降水进行了统计分析, 定义了一个前汛期东北冷涡强度指数 (NECVI), 并研究了前汛期东北冷涡异常年同期东亚季风、西太平洋副高、对流层低层的垂直运动异常特征和前期全球海表温度 (SST) 的先兆信号, 结果表明: 前汛期东北冷涡强度与华南降水存在显著的正相关, 东北冷涡强年, 前期东亚冬季风偏弱, 同期东亚夏季风异常爆发提前且偏强, 西太平洋副高位置偏南, 华南地区低层上升运动发展, 降水偏多; 东北冷涡偏弱年, 前期东亚冬季风偏弱, 同期东亚夏季风爆发推迟且偏弱, 西太平洋副高位置偏北, 华南地区低层下沉运动发展, 降水偏少; 前汛期东北冷涡与前期中国近海海温存在显著的负相关关系, 前汛期东北冷涡异常强年, 前期对应着La Nia的成熟阶段或发展阶段, 而前汛期东北冷涡异常弱年则对应着El Nio的成熟阶段或发展阶段.     

非绝热加热对6月东北冷涡形成演变的影响及其可能机制

利用ERA-Interim再分析资料,基于等熵位涡理论,采用合成分析和动力诊断方法分析了6月东北冷涡演变过程的气候特征,探究非绝热加热对东北冷涡形成和演变的重要影响。结果表明:气候平均东北冷涡形成在中纬度对流层高层,其形成过程表现为等熵位涡"自上而下、自西向东"发展加强,其演变过程与大气非绝热加热的变化密切联系。在东北冷涡形成前,其上空的非绝热加热明显加强;而在东北冷涡形成后,局地对流层中下部非绝热加热迅速发展。可见,东亚中纬度地区的高空非绝热加热是东北冷涡形成和发展的重要因素,而东北地区对流层中部的非绝热加热则是东北冷涡减弱消亡的主要原因。     

中国夏季东北冷涡强度的定量化分析

本文利用NCEP/NCAR发布的1981~2010年全球日平均再分析位势高度场资料对东北冷涡进行检索并提取其平均态, 在此基础上定义东北冷涡的偏离指数, 并探讨其对东北冷涡强度特征的描述。结果表明: (1) 东北冷涡500 hPa闭合中心位势高度的概率分布近似为高斯分布, 以其期望值提取的东北冷涡平均态具有东北冷涡的共性, 表现出明显的大气斜压性及有利于系统维持和发展的温压配置关系特征; (2) 基于东北冷涡平均态定义的东北冷涡偏离指数不仅能够表征东北冷涡偏离平均态的程度, 还包含了低压面积的信息, 即能够直观地显示东北冷涡的强弱特征。     

东北冷涡加强和减弱的短期预报方程

在数值预报产品诊断分析的基础上，计算东北冷涡强度的加强和减弱与物理量，温压场同时刻的相关关系，采用逐步判别方法，制作未来２４小时，４８小时冷涡强度变化的完全预报方程。检验结果表明，该方程对东北冷涡短期强度变化有较强的预报能力，可为客观预报提供依据。     

一次东北冷涡产生的突发性暴雨分析

用常规天气图、云图及单站探空资料，对１９９６年７月６日夜间到７日凌晨生成于渤海的由东北冷涡引发的强对流单体的环境条件进行了诊断分析。结果表明：这个强对流单体产生于东北冷涡南部，地面弱冷锋附近，产生前，环境大气已处于对流不稳定状态，东北冷涡的南压和移动方向，冷涡横槽的转竖，山东半岛北海岸的对流不稳定环境及大量不稳定能量的贮藏，有利于强对流单体在山东半岛北海岸的发展和加强。     

东北冷涡持续活动的分析研究

本文首先分析了东北冷涡的持续性活动特征，然后讨论了东亚大气10～20天低频振荡及瞬变扰动对东北冷涡持续活动的影响。结果表明，准双周振荡在我国东北地区十分活跃，从时间连续的低频天气图上发现，该地区附近周期性循环出现的低频气旋同东北冷涡的形成和发展关系密切，并且其传播路径也较有规律。另外，本文还通过→E矢量分析以及月平均准地转位涡的收支计算，研究了东亚大气瞬变扰动对形成时间平均冷涡的影响，得出，在时间平均东亚阻高／东北冷涡偶极子系统控制的区域附近有瞬变扰动动能向时间平均气流动能转换，同时这里也存在有明显的→E矢量辐合，导致平均西风减弱，而有利于经向环流的发展。时间平均气流的位涡平流不利于阻高／冷涡偶极子系统的存在，且使偶极子系统高、低压中心的经向距离拉大，而瞬变扰动的位涡输送则有利于冷涡高位涡值和阻高低位涡值在原地维持，阻止它们向下游传播。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.