降水调匀旱涝范围小 台风登陆华南受灾重

降水调匀　旱涝范围小　台风登陆　华南受灾重－１９９５年８月－杨冰洁（国家气候中心，北京１０００８１）８月份．全国人部地区降水比较调匀．月降水量北方大部地区正常或偏多，进一步缓解了西北和华北地区的旱情，仅局部地区发生旱涝灾害；南方人部正常或偏少，伙旱范...     

一种改进的旱涝指数计算方法

运用改进后的旱涝指数（Ｒｉ、Ｔｉ）计算方案,计算了四川省５－６月,７－８月,６－８月三个时段的旱涝指数（Ｒ１、Ｔｉ）,结果表明,用改进后的计算方案来划分旱涝,能够更加完善地表示出高温伏旱,低温多雨的气候特征。     

1998年四川讯期旱涝预测方法评述

对１９９８ 年汛期（６－ ８ 月）旱涝趋势预测方法进行了回顾,并结合１９９８ 年汛期旱涝成因对方法中考虑的物理因子作了分析。     

1998年四川汛期旱涝预测方法评述

对１９９８年汛期（６－８月）旱涝趋势预测方法进行了回顾,并结合１９９８年汛期旱涝成因对方法中考虑的物理因子作了分析。     

河套华北地区旱浑前期的环流异常和遥相关机制

根据文献［５］确定的河套华北地区２７个测站夏季（６－８月）降水指数，计算了典型旱涝年平均环流的合成差异场，发现在旱涝年的前期，尤其是在冬半年，大气环流的差异是显著的；旱涝指数与环流的相关，与旱涝合成差异声特征一致，计算的遥相关结果表明，遥相关的传播路径与理论上计算得到的波能量传播路径几乎一致，其正负区域，中心位置与旱涝差异场的特征也基本一致。     

西南地区夏季严重旱涝划分方法

运用川云贵三省１９６１－１９９４年５－８月降水资料,分别计算了西南地区５－６月、７－８月、６－８月三个时段的旱涝指数、结果表明,用旱涝指数来划分旱涝、具有客观定量地、正确地反映出旱涝的基本特征。     

乌山槽脊与内蒙古农区夏季旱涝的关系

乌山槽脊与内蒙古农区夏季旱涝的关系吕发泰（锡盟气象处）本文从５００ｈＰａ环流形势出发，先分析了锡盟盛夏（７、８月）典型多雨和少雨各６年的前期环流变化特点，发现前１年９、１１、１２月乌山附近地区槽脊变化显著异常，由此引起亚洲纬向环流指数，７０°Ｅ的西风...     

乌山槽脊与内蒙古农区夏季旱涝的关系

乌山槽脊与内蒙古农区夏季旱涝的关系吕发泰（锡盟气象处）本文从５００ｈＰａ环流形势出发，先分析了锡盟盛夏（７、８月）典型多雨和少雨各６年的前期环流变化特点，发现前１年９、１１、１２月乌山附近地区槽脊变化显著异常，由此引起亚洲纬向环流指数，７０°Ｅ的西风...     

汕尾市前汛前旱涝特征分析及雨量预报

１　前　言　　据广东前汛期（４～６月）雨量１０年（１９６１～１９７０年）资料,汕尾市的海丰县为全省的多雨量中心之一,但其年际变化甚大。如汕尾站最旱的１９６３年,只有４４４－８ｍｍ雨量;而最涝的１９８７年多达１７２５－９ｍｍ,为１９６３年的３－９倍。干旱年份,不但农作物全部旱死,人畜饮水也十分困难;雨涝年份,暴雨成灾,严重威胁着人民生命财产的安全。因此,对前汛期旱涝趋势的分析及其预报方法的研究,准确做出旱涝趋势预报,是十分重要的。２　前汛期旱涝特征分析２－１　旱涝标准与统计结果汕尾市有汕尾、海丰、…     

近40年华南汛期旱涝变化及趋势预测

利用１９５１－１９９１年华南（１３个测站平均）汛期（４－９月）降水量资料分析了汛期旱涝变化特征，提出了旱涝等级标准，采用模糊均生函数模型，根据序列本身的演变规律进行拟合外推，预测了９０年代的旱涝趋势，并利用广州近８３年较长降水序列研究了广州汛期降水的长期变化特征。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.