Flood-producing cloud bands over the Kalahari Desert

The characteristics of flood-producing cloud bands over the Kalahari Desert (15-30°S, 15-22°E) are described using daily time-scale observations, reanalysis and satellite data. The cloud band extends southward from Angola, producing short periods of intense rainfall over Namibia. Their frequency of occurrence is ～8% according to singular value decomposition of gridded 1° daily GPCP rainfall 1996-2008. The environmental features evident from case study and composite analysis include: (1) cut-off low over the Namibian coast and deep anticyclonic ridge south of Africa, (2) inflow of air from vegetated surfaces to the northeast (Q?>?300 W m^?2) into a 300 km wide meridional axis, (3) a large-scale sea breeze that enhances afternoon convection, and in the background, (4) warming of the southeast Atlantic Ocean off Angola. Short-range GFS forecasts appear accurate for the devastating 5 February 2009 event 5 days in advance.     

Microwave measurements over the North Sea

We investigate the applicability of SLAR (Side-Looking Airborne Radar) to detect waves and other phenomena at sea, for future operational use. Especially, we investigate radar measurements of wave patterns, oil pollution, shipping traffic, and ice reconnaissance and relate these to sea-truth information. The SLAR program benefits from earlier clutter measurements at sea and in a wind-wave tank (carried out by the Physics Laboratory TNO and NIWARS), which have been further elaborated and extended. These are summarized. Results obtained since 1974 lead to the conclusion that the SLAR is applicable for the aforementioned purposes, albeit in a somewhat restricted way. The large resolution cell used, containing a vast number of independent samples, improves the dynamic resolution to about l dB and so turns the SLAR into a sensor eminently suited for the detection of very slight modulations of capillary waves. For the detection of shorter gravity waves, however, especially under severe wind conditions, a finer geometrical resolution might be needed. Results emphasize the need for further fundamental studies of sensor-object interaction.     

Investigation of droplet dynamics in a convective cloud using a Lagrangian cloud model

A precipitating convective cloud is simulated successfully using the Lagrangian cloud model, in which the flow field is simulated by large eddy simulation and the droplets are treated as Lagrangian particles, and the results are analyzed to investigate precipitation initiation and to examine the parameterization of cloud microphysics. It is found that raindrops appear initially near the cloud top, in which strong turbulence and broadened droplet spectrum are induced by the entrainment of dry air, but high liquid–water mixing ratio is maintained within cloud parts because of insufficient mixing. Statistical analysis of the downward vertical velocity of a droplet W reveals that the transition from cloud droplets to raindrops occurs in the range 20 μm < r < 100 μm, while the variation of W depends on turbulence as well as the droplet radius r. The general pattern of the raindrop size distribution is found to be consistent with the Marshall–Palmer distribution. The precipitation flux can be underestimated substantially, if the terminal velocity $w_{\text{s}}$ is used instead of W, but it is not sensitive to the choice of the critical droplet radius dividing cloud drops and raindrops. It is also found that precipitation starts earlier and becomes stronger if the effect of turbulence is included in the collection kernel.     

太行山东麓一次强对流冰雹云结构的观测分析

利用“太行山东麓人工增雨防雹作业技术试验示范”项目在冰雹发生区获取的综合观测资料,从强对流单体出现的天气背景、降雹特征、雷达回波演变、大冰雹的形成机制及动力结构等方面对2018年5月12日下午发生于太行山东麓的一次强对流单体降雹天气过程进行了分析。结果显示,午后不稳定能量的增大形成了有利的热力条件,低层风场的辐合扰动以及中层的冷空气侵入是产生本次强冰雹过程的触发因素。通过对雹云降雹时段雷达回波具有超长“悬挂回波”和对应大雹形成特征分析表明,云中存在着上、中、下相互衔接的0线（域）,主上升气流2次逆时针转弯增加了雹胚再入主上升气流区继续长成大雹的机会,据此勾画出了云体主上升气流框架及大冰雹的形成机制,表明冰雹在雹云中的生长有多种模式。      

不同源区雷达回波的汇合与暴雨的形成

一、引言 暴雨是一种中尺度天气现象。关于暴雨形成的大尺度背景条件以及中尺度系统的天气学特征,有过许多分析研究。至于暴雨的触发机制,一些理论研究主要分析了不同条件下重力波对暴雨的触发作用。李麦村根据大尺度天气系统发展时的非地转平衡能激发重力波,指出其在条件不稳定大气中传播时,可以是发动暴雨的一种机制。最近又根据两     

南海及周边地区云量分布及低云量与南海海温的关系

利用国际卫星云气候计划提供的月平均云气候资料集,分析了南海及周边地区云量的分布特征,并进一步研究了低云量与南海海温的关系。结果表明:(1)南海及周边地区总云量分布存在显著的季节性差异特征。(2)低云主要分布在南海海区,中云为华南地区,而高云则主要位于靠近赤道区域。(3)低云受海表温度影响较大,而中高云则主要与强对流相对应。低云主要分布于南海海表冷水中心南侧的暖水区内的温度梯度区,其高值区分布与海表温度梯度分布基本一致,海表温度梯度的大小与高值中心的低云量成正比。(4)低云量高值中心位置与水平海温梯度区两侧基本一致,高温暖水受西边界强迫上升在海表层辐合,有利于低云的生成。     

Sea surface winds derived from cloud motion vectors over the tropical Atlantic

The relationship between satellite-derived low-level cloud motion, surface wind and geostrophic wind vectors is examined using GATE data. In the trades, surface wind speeds can be derived from cloud motion vectors by the linear relation: V = 0.62 V _s + 1.9 m s^–1 with a mean scatter of ±1.3 m s^–1. The correlation coefficient between surface and satellite wind speed is 0.25. Considering baroclinicity, i.e., the influence of the thermal wind, the correlation coefficient does not increase, because of the uncertainty of the thermal wind vectors. The ratios of surface to geostrophic wind speed and surface to satellite wind speed are 0.7 and 0.8, respectively, with a statistical uncertainty of ±0.3. Calculations of the ratio of surface to geostrophic wind speed on the basis of the resistance law yield V/V _g = 0.8 ± 0.2, in agreement with experimental results. The mean angle difference between the surface and the satellite wind vectors amounts to - 18 °, taking into account baroclinicity. This value is in good agreement with the mean ageostrophic angle - 25 °.     

北太平洋海平面气压场变化与海温的关系

利用SVD（singular value decomposition）方法分析了1948年1月—2002年12月北太平洋海平面气压场与海温的关系。结果表明,SVD第1对异类相关分布型反映出,当东北太平洋副热带高压加强（减弱）时,Namias海区海温升高（降低）,而加利福尼亚海流区海温降低（升高）。SVD第2对异类相关分布型表明,当阿留申低压加深、北太平洋副热带地区气压升高时,黑潮暖流区海温升高,而北太平洋高、低纬海温降低;反之亦然。时滞相关表明,北太平洋大气环流异常超前海温1个月的相关最好,海温变化对大气环流异常分布型具有维持作用。NCAR CCSM3模拟结果很好地验证了上述结论,即在海气相互作用过程中,东北太平洋副热带高压和NPO（North Pacific Oscillation）与北太平洋海温存在密切联系。     

华北平原飑线与一般对流活动发生条件的对比分析

本文根据1986年6、7月影响华北平原北部的4次飑线过程,分析了飑线发生的天气形势,对比分析了飑线与一般对流活动的发生条件。分析结果表明,华北飑线的发生与中层冷空气爆发相关,飑线发生前华北平原的不稳定能量分布具有高值、集中分布和正增长的特点。这些分析结果可能有助于华北地区飑线的分析和预报。     

南海区域对流活动的气候特征及其与ENSO的关系

利用1979—2013年NCEP再分析向外长波辐射、降水率和ENSO指数资料,运用联合经验正交函数等诊断方法,分析了南海区域各季对流活动年内、年际尺度变化特征和年际变化与同期ENSO指数的关系。结果表明：南海南部对流活动各月之间少变,南海中北部区域对流被抑制期和活跃期均较为持久,对流活跃区5月中旬中期跳跃北扩,9月后由北向南缓慢撤退;南海区域秋、冬和春季变化表现出良好的全区一致性,冬季对流活动较好地保留了上年秋季的异常状态,并进一步稳定地持续到春季;秋、冬和春季活动的年际变化很可能受ENSO调制,厄尔尼诺状态下,南海对流活动受抑制,拉尼娜状态下相反;夏季对流活动表现出南北反向型和全区一致型的两类重要年际变化形态,前者可能受ENSO的调制,厄尔尼诺抑制南端对流而使北端对流更活跃,后者有明显的线性趋势,气候变暖使夏季南海上空对流更活跃;春季对流的异常状态很难持续到夏季。     

Initiation of a convective dust storm over North India on 21 April 2010 inferred using satellite data

Dust storms commonly occur during the pre-monsoon (summer) season in north and northwest parts of India. Characteristics of dust events of the pressure gradient type are well understood. However, comprehensive studies on mechanism of convective dust storms in India are few. A convective dust storm which occurred on 21 April 2010 in association with a western disturbance over North India was hence studied. In the absence of in situ data, we used available satellite data to study the event. Dust storm that occurred on 20 April 2010 on the surface of the Thar Desert transported dust to northern and northwestern parts of India (Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi and some parts of Uttar Pradesh). This formed a background of aerosols that affected the thunderstorm formed in association with western disturbance and the strong updraft in the thunderstorm carried the dust lingering in the atmosphere to higher altitudes. Large amount of aerosols carried to higher altitude suppressed the chance of precipitation by affecting the cloud top microphysics. Enhancement in evaporation due to an increase in aerosol concentration and strong downdrafts during dissipation of the thunderstorm resulted in emission of dust particles which led to the convective dust event of 21 April 2010.     

Airflow over a mountain and the convective boundary layer

In this paper, the analytical model coupling the convective boundary layer (CBL) with the free atmosphere developed by Qi and Fu (1992) is improved. And by this improved model, the interaction between airflow over a mountain and the CBL is further discussed. The conclusions demonstrate: (1) The perturbation potential temperatures in the free atmosphere can counteract the effect of orographic thermal forcing through entraining and mixing in the CBL. If _M > _F , the feedback of the perturbation potential temperatures in the free atmosphere is more important than orographic thermal forcing, which promotes the effect of interfacial waves. If _M < _F , orographic thermal forcing is more important, which makes the interfacial height and the topographic height identical in phase, and the horizontal speeds are a maximum at the top of the mountain. (2) The internal gravity waves propagating vertically in the free atmosphere cause a strong downslope wind to become established above the lee slope in the CBL and result in the hydraulic jump at the top of the CBL. (3) With the CBL deepening, the interfacial gravity waves induced by the potential temperature jump at the top of the CBL cause the airflow in the CBL to be subcritical.     

暴雨和中尺度气象学问题

目前人们对超级单体云团降水回波结构的认知仍有限。本文采用GPM (Global Precipitation Measurement) 卫星搭载的测雨雷达DPR (Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar)和微波成像仪GMI (GPM Microwave Imager)的探测结果,结合FY-4A静止卫星多通道扫描成像辐射计(AGRI)的热红外10.8 μm通道观测结果、探空站的温湿风观测结果及欧洲天气预报中心再分析数据,利用雷达回波剖面和回波反射率因子概率密度随高度分布的方法,分析了2018年5月重庆地区超级单体云团的降水结构特征。结果表明：该超级单体云团由西北向东南运动的冷空气与暖湿空气交汇而引发;超级单体云团内存在对流降水和层状降水等次尺度系统;强降水区位于云贵高原与四川盆地交界处至盆地的西南部;超级单体暴雨云中冰相粒子多;对流降水的回波顶高度超过12 km,且最大回波强度多数位于地面上空4-5 km;对流降水比层状降水拥有更高的降水粒子浓度,而粒子大小却小于后者;对流降水的粒子尺度随着高度下降而明显增大,反映了其明显碰并增长过程。

     

利用FY-2E红外和水汽波段对强对流云团的识别和演变研究

使用FY-2E静止气象卫星的红外1(10.3~11.3μm)和水汽波段(6.3~7.6μm)时序图像,对强对流云进行识别和短时预测。亮温阈值法是将强对流云和其他高云区分开的常用方法,但是合适的亮温阈值是随着时间和空间而变化的,过高的阈值会将许多卷云包括进来,太低的阈值会排除掉云顶发展还不是很高的强对流云。水汽波段所在的位置是水汽的一个强吸收带,而高度在400 h Pa上下的大气层是水汽波段的一个强吸收层,大气在垂直方向上的对水汽波段辐射吸收的分布模式使得卫星接收到的水汽波段辐射主要来自于400 h Pa以上的大气中高层,而卫星接收到的红外波段辐射主要来自于大气中低层,两个波段间辐射来源的差异使得不同光学厚度的高云的辐射观测值在红外—水汽光谱空间中的分布具有明显差别,并且这种差异具有时空的稳定性。本文将一定范围内的云团的象元测值在红外—水汽光谱空间中的分布的拟合直线斜率作为强对流云识别的依据,结果表明相对于亮温阈值法,本文的识别方法不仅能够较好地区别卷云和强对流云,同时也能更有效地识别未达到旺盛阶段的对流云。在对强对流云进行识别后,根据相邻时间段的卫星图像,利用交叉相关法反演得到强对流云团顶部的位移矢量场,并根据后向轨迹法对强对流云团位置形状进行短时预测,预报结果在短时间内(0~1 h)较好,并且对面积较大的云团的预报效果要优于较小的对流云团。此外文中还利用逐半小时的云顶黑体温度(Temperature of Black Body,TBB)资料分析了云顶亮温的分布变化,得到了整个强对流过程的演变特征。     

Numerical Simulation of Microphysics in Meso-β-Scale Convective Cloud System Associated with a Mesoscale Convective Complex

Numerical simulation of meso-β-scale convective cloud systems associated with a PRE-STORM MCC case has been carried out using a 2-D version of the CSU Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) nonhydrostatic model with parameterized microphysics. It is found that the predicted meso-γ-scale convective phenomena are basically unsteady under the situation of strong shear at low-levels, white the meso-β-scale convective system is maintained up to 3 hours or more. The meso-β-scale cloud system exhibits characteristics of a multi-celled convective storm in which the meso-γ-scale convective cells have lifetime of about 30 min. Pressure perturbation depicts a meso-low after a half hour in the low levels. As the cloud system evolves, the meso-low inten-sifies and extends to the upshear side and covers the entire domain in the mid-lower levels with the peak values of 5-8 hPa. Temperature perturbation depicts a warm region in the middle levels through the entire simulation period. The meso-γ-scale warm cores with peak values of 4-8oC are associated with strong convective cells. The cloud top evapo-ration causes a stronger cold layer around the cloud top levels.Simulation of microphysics exhibits that graupel is primarily concentrated in the strong convective cells forming the main source of convective rainfall after one hour of simulation time. Aggregates are mainly located in the stratiform region and decaying convective cells which produce the stratiform rainfall. Riming of the ice crystals is the predominant precipitation formation mechanism in the convection region, whereas aggregation of ice crystals is the predominant one in the stratiform region, which is consistent with observations. Sensitivity experiments of ice-phase microphysical processes show that the microphysical structures of the convective cloud system can be simulated better with the diagnosed aggregation collection efficiencies.     

青藏高原上中尺度对流系统(MCS)的数值模拟

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) developing over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau on 26 July 1995 issimulated using the fifth version of the Penn State-NCAR nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5). Theresults obtained are inspiring and are as follows. (1) The model simulates well the largescale conditionsin which the MCS concerned is embedded, which are the well-known anticyclonic Qinghai-Xizang PlateauHigh in the upper layers and the strong thermal forcing in the lower layers. In particular, the modelcaptures the meso-α scale cyclonic vortex associated with the MCS, which can be analyzed in the 500 hPaobservational winds; and to some degree, the model reproduces even its meso-β scale substructure similarto satellite images, reflected in the model-simulated 400 hPa rainwater. On the other hand, there aresome distinct deficiencies in the simulation; for example, the simulated MCS occurs with a lag of 3 hoursand a westward deviation of 3-5° longitude. (2) The structure and evolution of the meso-α scale vortexassociated with the MCS are undescribable for upper-air sounding data. The vortex is confined to thelower troposphere under 450 hPa over the plateau and shrinks its extent with height, with a diameter of4° longitude at 500 hPa. It is within the updraft area, but with an upper-level anticyclone and downdraftover it. The vortex originates over the plateau, and does not form until the mature stage of the MCS. Itlasts for 3-6 hours. In its processes of both formation and decay, the change in geopotential height fieldis prior to that in the wind field. It follows that the vortex is closely associated with the thermal effectsover the plateau. (3) A series of sensitivity experiments are conducted to investigate the impact of varioussurface thermal forcings and other physical processes on the MCS over the plateau. The results indicatethat under the background conditions of the upper-level Qinghai-Xizang High, the MCS involved is mainlydominated by the low-level thermal forcing. The simulation described here is a good indication that itmay be possible to reproduce the MCS over the plateau under certain large-scale conditions and with theincorporation of proper thermal physics in the lower layers.     

Origins of atmospheric particulate matter over the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean

During the ANT VII/1 cruise of the RV Polarstern from Bremerhaven (Germany) to Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil), atmospheric particulate matter was collected by bulk filtration with a time step of 36 hours. Elemental analyses were performed in order to determine atmospheric aerosol concentrations of Al, Si, P, S, K, Ca, Ti, Mn, Fe, and Zn over the North Sea, the Channel, and the North and South Atlantic. The slight and continuous moving in latitude, associated with the large variability in concentration levels and chemical composition, allow us to point out the relative influence of the major sources of particulate matter: desert soil-dust in the tropical North Atlantic, anthropogenic emissions in the North Sea and the Channel, and biomass burning and continental biogenic activity in the tropical South Atlantic.     

Measurements of the height of the convective surface boundary layer over an arid coast on the Red Sea

The height of the convective boundary layer over an arid coast on the Red Sea was measured by high-resolution radiosondes. These measurements can be used to compute sensible heat flux by the method devised by Danard (1981). The average heat flux computed is in good agreement with results obtained independently by both the energy balance method and the free-convection equation.     

2018年西北太平洋和南海台风活动概述

2018年共有29个台风在西北太平洋和南海生成,生成台风个数偏多,南海台风活跃。有10个台风登陆我国,登陆强度整体明显偏弱,但是登陆台风个数明显偏多、登陆时间集中、登陆地段偏北、北上台风偏多,造成台风降水范围广、暴雨强度大、超警河流多。其中,“安比”、“摩羯”、“温比亚”一个月内相继在华东地区登陆并深入内陆北上,且登陆后长时间维持热带风暴级强度,给华东、华北、东北等地区带来大范围强降雨。“艾云尼”移动缓慢,与西南季风环流相结合,给广东等地区造成长时间的持续强降水。“山竹”是2018年登陆我国最强台风,其7级风圈明显偏大,给广东、香港等地区带来大范围、长时间的强风和强降水。2018年所有预报时效的路径预报误差较2017年均有所降低,路径预报水平进一步提高,但是强度预报水平仍然没有明显的进步。