A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan

This study proposes a probabilistic methodology for estimating the business interruption loss of industrial sectors as an extension of current methodology. The functional forms and parameters are selected and calibrated based on survey data obtained from businesses located in the inundated area at the time of the 2000 Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan. The Tokai Heavy Rain was a rare event that hit a densely populated and industrialized area. In the estimation of business interruption losses, functional fragility curves and accelerated failure time models are selected to estimate the extent of damage to production capacity and production recovery time. Significant explanatory variables, such as inundation depth, distinct vulnerability, and the resilience characteristics of each sector, as well as the accuracy of fit of the model, are analyzed in the study. The function obtained and the estimated parameters can be utilized as benchmarks in estimating the probabilistic distribution of business interruption losses, especially in the case of urban flood disasters.

     

Movements of spawning rainbow smelt,Osmerus mordax,in a massachusetts estuary

Movements of spawning rainbow smelt, Osmerus mordax, were followed in the Parker River estuary, Massachusetts during 1974 and 1975. Fish marked with vinyl subcutaneous tags (n=1,492) or fin clips (n=577) were recaptured on three separate spawning sites in three different tributaries; the distribution patterns of marked fish indicated a homogeneous spawning stock. Interstream movement may have been facilitated by tidal transport since smelt ascended to the spawning sites on flood tides and moved downstream as tides ebbed. Rates of recapture of fish tagged on the spawning areas were 2.61 and 5.61 times greater for males than females in 1974 and 1975 respectively. Individual tagged males were recovered up to four times during the spawning period; females were recaptured a maximum of once. The proportion of age II and older females sampled from the angling fishery prior to spawning in 1975 (47.38%) was greater than the cumulative proportion sampled on the spawning sites (11.93%) due to longer spawning period of individual males.     

Use of Gaussian Distribution for Estimation of Gob Gas Drainage Well Productivity

This paper describes the development and application of new mathematical models for estimation of well productivity during drainage of methane gob gas associated with coal extraction. It is established that the relationship between methane emission from surface gob gas wells and the duration of well production can be described by Gaussian (normal) distribution. Mathematical models based on using the Gaussian error distribution function and the Gaussian density function were proposed to describe the correlation between parameters of methane emission from gob gas wells, duration of well production, and time coordinate of maximum gas emission. These models allow prediction of the total volume of gas which can be extracted for the entire period of well production, the maximum volumetric flow rate of gas emission and the time coordinate of maximum gas emission using at least three measurement of gas volumetric rate (or gas volume) from a gas well at any time during the well production period.     

Groundwater overexploitation and soil subsidence monitoring on Recife plain (Brazil)

Facing natural disasters is a priority challenge for cities, exacerbated by increases in urban population and climate change. Improving the resilience of cities is a critical need for the international community and especially for territories exposed to multiple risks, such as Chile. Although disasters are always tragic, the recovery and reconstruction post-disaster may provide a unique opportunity to prevent future suffering, enhancing the resilience of local communities. This paper presents the analysis of two Chilean reconstruction programmes applied in Mehuin and Dichato, after the earthquake and tsunami of 22 May 1960 and 27 February 2010, respectively. In both cases, reconstruction programmes were supported by the Chilean Government, but using different approaches: one focused on providing housing for people injured in the earthquake, while the other also included urban amenities and services. This article proposes an urban morphology analysis framework; in addition, it presents the assessment of the two case studies before and after a disaster, thus evaluating their resilience. By comparing urban morphology resilience pre- and post-disaster, a discussion about the effectiveness of two reconstruction approaches is presented. Finally, conclusions and recommendations to better integrate resilience into urban planning are proposed, with the aim of opening the discussion about how to make cities more resilient to natural disasters.     

Quantifying cascading effects triggered by disrupted transportation due to the Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm: implications for disaster risk management

Cascading effects are usually one of the common ways through which relatively minor hazards can substantially impact society and economy; the failure of a single industrial sector or cluster of sectors can result in cascading effect on other interlinked sectors. This paper attempts to quantify this cascading effect triggered by disrupted transportation in Hunan province due to the Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm and proposes operational risk management measures. The advantage of computable general equilibrium (CGE) model (reflecting indirect and induced effects and the nonlinearity of production block) makes it a promising model to simulate cascading effects and the contribution of risk management measures. A detail transportation system is constructed in the production part of standard CGE model. This study finds the following results: The economic loss of Hunan province is amplified by approximately 40 times by cascading effects during the 2 months following the disaster. Large-scale disasters induce more strong cascading effects than minor ones. Post-disaster system resilience effectively stops the spread of cascading effects. When the economic system resilience (e.g., improving the substitution between road transportation and other forms of transportation and efficiency of road transportation) is increased by 10 %, the economic losses induced by cascading effects can be reduced by approximately 60 %. Overall, improving post-disaster system resilience is a highly efficient and cheap measure to reduce the risk from cascading effects.     

潘河地区煤层气井排采制度优化

基于沁水盆地南部潘河地区煤层气地质特征以及PH01井和PH02井排采资料,结合COMET3储层模拟软件,对两口井进行历史拟合和制度优化。结果表明,当PH01井初始最大产水量为3m^3/d时,最大累计产气量能达800.4×10^4m^3;PH02井初始最大产水量为5m3/d时,最大累计产气量达700.1×10^4m^3。在基础地质条件相近的前提下,两口井最大累计产气量相差100.3×10^4m^3,其原因为PH02井前期产水量比PH01井多,裂隙闭合较快,渗透率降低幅度较大,对储层伤害较大,出气较PH01井困难,产气时间较短,加之含气量不如PH01井,故最大累计产气量较低。     

Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory for modelling community resilience to natural disasters

This paper advocates the use of Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory as a framework to analyse resilience at diverse scales. Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological theory can be employed to (a) benchmark social resilience, (b) target the priority interventions required and (c) measure progress arising from these interventions to enhance resilience to natural disasters. First, the paper explores resilience to natural disasters in the context of climatic change as building resilience is seen as a way to mitigate impacts of natural disasters. Second, concepts of resilience are systematically examined and documented, outlining resilience as a trait and resilience as a process. Third, issues arising in relation to the measurement of resilience are discussed. Fourth, Bronfenbrenner’s bioecological systems theory is described and proffered to model and assess resilience at different scales. Fifth, studies are described which have supported the use of the bioecological systems theory for the study of resilience. Sixth, an example of the use of Bronfenbrenner’s theory is offered and the paper concludes with suggestions for future research using Bronfenbrenner’s theory.     

Risk and uncertainty analysis in the planning stages of a risk decision-making process

Natural disaster risk, a long-time concern in the insurance industry, is increasingly recognized as a present danger in the business strategies of risk control and enterprise management agencies. Floods and earthquakes can cause massive loss of life and infrastructure, resulting in business interruption and heavy casualties. Many of the short-term developmental strategies employed throughout the world have only served to exacerbate the impact of natural disasters. Therefore, this study presents a review of formal methods that are commonly used in risk and uncertainty analysis in planning and concludes with a critical assessment of the advantages and disadvantages of the different priority setting methods. Our focus is a preliminary proposal for developing an efficient probabilistic approach to facilitate design optimization that involves probabilistic constraints.     

The diversity of resilience: contributions from a social science perspective

The paper presents contributions to the widespread resilience paradigm from a social science perspective. Certain aspects of social systems, especially their symbolic dimension of meaning, need to be taken into account in the endeavor to research coupled social–ecological systems. Due to the symbolic dimension, disasters are defined as the failure of future expectations, and social resilience is defined as the social system property of avoiding or withstanding disasters. In relation to this, three capacities of social systems (adaptive, coping, and participative) that constitute resilience are presented. The adaptive capacity is the property of a system in which structures are modified to prevent future disasters, whereas the coping capacity is the system’s property of coping with calamitous processes that occurred in the past. The participative capacity is a measure of the system’s ability to change its own structures with regard to interventions by other systems, decreasing the system’s resilience. The concept of resilience provides important epistemological and political insights and can help overcome an orientation tied together with the concept of vulnerability that blocks social capacities for the mitigation of disasters.     

Characteristic behavior and order relations for indicator variograms

Heuristic models for indicator variograms and their parameters (practical nugget effect and range) are proposed for a bivariate normal distribution with spherical correlogram. These models can be used conveniently as a preliminary check for bivariate normality. In the general non-Gaussian case, indicator variogram models for multiple threshold values must verify a certain number of order relations (inequalities) established directly from the properties of a general bivariate cumulative distribution function. An interesting, little-known maximum hole effect for indicator correlation is pointed out.     

浅谈债务重组的处理方法及纳税调整

新债务重组准则改变了＂一刀切＂的规定,将原来因债权人让步而导致债务人豁免或少偿还的负债计入资本公积的做法,改为将债务重组计入营业外收支,对于实物抵债业务引入了公允价值作为计量属性。按新规定,一些无力清偿债务的公司,一旦获得债务全部或者部分豁免,其收益将直接反映在当期利润表中。债务重组应遵循四种方式：资产清偿债务;债务转为资本;修改其他债务条件;混合重组。针对债务重组应遵循的四种方式,以实例对比新、旧准则对债务重组的会计处理方法及其纳税调整结果。     

白龙江流域构造地貌特征及其对滑坡泥石流灾害的控制作用

活动构造是影响地质灾害发生的主要因素之一.利用SRTM-3数字高程模型 (digital elevation model,简称DEM) 数据,基于ArcGIS空间分析技术及Matlab程序脚本系统提取白龙江流域宏观地貌信息、拟合流域内部7个4级亚流域的S-A图解,并结合流域内部新构造特征、活动断裂分布、岩性展布特征以及降水条件等系统分析了白龙江流域滑坡泥石流地质灾害发育的控制因素.其中,S-A拟合图形上凸者代表流域内物质的输出量大于输入量,反之,S-A拟合图形下凹者代表流域内物质的输出量小于输入量,而物质输入表现为山体隆升,较大的物质输出量具体表现形式即为突发事件形成的滑坡、泥石流灾害;另外区域构造运动控制下的强烈褶皱破碎甚至糜棱化或半糜棱化岩层分布也是地质灾害发生必不可少的条件.受上述因素综合影响,本区地质灾害通常发生在高程突变、起伏度与切割深度大的高坡度分布区,而由于区域差异隆升所形成的不同的亚流域地貌形态则控制了地质灾害高发区,即物质输出量大于输入量的亚流域内部滑坡泥石流等地质灾害频繁,而输入量大于输出量的亚流域内部并无明显地质灾害分布点.      

Coupling sentiment and human mobility in natural disasters: a Twitter-based study of the 2014 South Napa Earthquake

Understanding population dynamics during natural disasters is important to build urban resilience in preparation for extreme events. Social media has emerged as an important source for disaster managers to identify dynamic polarity of sentiments over the course of disasters, to understand human mobility patterns, and to enhance decision making and disaster recovery efforts. Although there is a growing body of literature on sentiment and human mobility in disaster contexts, the spatiotemporal characteristics of sentiment and the relationship between sentiment and mobility over time have not been investigated in detail. This study therefore addresses this research gap and proposes a new lens to evaluate population dynamics during disasters by coupling sentiment and mobility. We collected 3.74 million geotagged tweets over 8 weeks to examine individuals’ sentiment and mobility before, during and after the M6.0 South Napa, California Earthquake in 2014. Our research results reveal that the average sentiment level decreases with the increasing intensity of the earthquake. We found that similar levels of sentiment tended to cluster in geographical space, and this spatial autocorrelation was significant over areas of different earthquake intensities. Moreover, we investigated the relationship between temporal dynamics of sentiment and mobility. We examined the trend and seasonality of the time series and found cointegration between the series. We included effects of the earthquake and built a segmented regression model to describe the time series finding that day-to-day changes in sentiment can either lead or lag daily changed mobility patterns. This study contributes a new lens to assess the dynamic process of disaster resilience unfolding over large spatial scales.     

Risk analysis and influencing factors of drought and flood disasters in China

The risk analysis of flood and drought disasters and the study of their influencing factors enhance our understanding of the temporal and spatial variation law of disasters and help identify the main factors affecting disasters. This paper uses the provincial administrative region of China as the research area. The proportion of the disaster area represents the degree of the disaster. The statistical distribution of the proportions was optimized from 10 alternative distributions based on a KS test, and the disaster risk was analyzed. Thirty-five indicators were selected from nature, agriculture and the social economy as alternative factors. The main factors affecting flood and drought disasters were selected by Pearson, Spearman and Kendall correlation coefficient test. The results demonstrated that the distribution of floods and drought is right-skewed, and the gamma distribution is the best statistical distribution for fitting disasters. In terms of time, the risk of flood and drought disasters in all regions showed a downward trend. Economic development and the enhancement of the ability to resist disasters were the main reasons for the change in disasters. Spatially, the areas with high drought risk were mainly distributed in Northeast and North China, and the areas with high flood risk were mainly distributed in the south, especially in Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui. The distribution of floods and drought disasters was consistent with the distribution characteristics of precipitation and water resources in China. Among the natural factors, precipitation was the main factor causing changes in floods and drought disasters. Among the agricultural and socioeconomic factors, the indicators reflecting the disaster resistance ability and regional economic development level were closely related to flood and drought disasters. The research results have reference significance for disaster classification, disaster formation mechanisms and flood and drought resistance.

     

Social and Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters

Economic and social development throughout the world is frequently interrupted by extreme events. The Pacific Rim is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters, thus to social and economic losses. Although disaster events impact both developed and developing countries, in the latter, they can cause a sharp increase in poverty. As disasters pose an important challenge to the development of the Pacific Rim, it is important to assess their global, regional, economic, and social impacts. Most economic assessments of the impacts of disasters have concentrated on direct losses—that is, the financial cost of physical damage. Equally important are indirect and secondary impacts of disasters, including the destruction of communities and their negative impacts on families. The challenges posed by potential disasters in the Pacific Rim countries require rapid action, and also an energetic risk-management strategy. To help reduce those negative impacts, countries need an overall evaluation of their risks, including: (i) risk identification, (ii) risk reduction, and (iii) risk transfer. It is expected that concerted action on risk management will help create an increased awareness of the economy—wide significance of natural disasters and the problems they pose for long—term development. Accordingly, this growing awareness will lead to an increased resilience in the countries of the Pacific Rim.     

Spatial and temporal evolution of community resilience to natural hazards in the coastal areas of China

With the accelerating progress of industrialization, urbanization and population growth in recent decades, community resilience, the ability of communities to function effectively and recover successfully in the aftermath of disasters and shocks, has received great attentions. A number of studies had been conducted focusing on community resilience. This article applied community resilience framework to the coastal areas of China, which are the most densely populated and economically developed areas in China with the most frequent marine disasters. City-level social and economic data were used to construct a community resilience index (CRI). Using factor analysis and the global principal component analysis method, 55 city-level indexes were reduced into 15 factors that explain 73.99% of the variance. Getis–Ord G* Statistics were used to depict the high-value clusters and low-value clusters of the CRI. Clearly identified spatial and temporal variations of the CRI showed that both the overall level and regional differences of the CRI increased from 2003 to 2013; the overall spatial agglomeration characteristic of community resilience was not significant. Our findings also highlighted the key elements to improving community resilience: a robust and developed economic system; excellent education programs and training to improve consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation; adequate investment on critical infrastructure, especially transportation and communication; proper environmental policies to protect ecosystems and water rouses; and extra attention and disaster risk budgets for vulnerable populations.     

Land subsidence in Tianjin,China

Land subsidence has been affecting Tianjin for the past 50 years. It leads to comprehensive detrimental effects on society, the economy and natural environment. Overpumping of groundwater is the main cause. In 2008, the maximum cumulative subsidence reached 3.22 m and the total affected area nearly 8,000 km². The subsidence reached its most critical state in the early 1980s when it occurred at a rate as high as 110 mm/year. At the same time, groundwater extraction had also reached a maximum of 1,200 million m³. By importing the Luan River to Tianjin and restricting exploitation of groundwater, hydraulic heads gradually recovered after 1986 in all aquifers, and this has continued to the present in the second aquifer. The subsidence rate in urban areas dropped to 10–15 mm/year. The area of groundwater extraction expanded to the suburban area with economic growth in the 1990s, and it was shifted to the third and fourth aquifers. At present, with a subsidence rate of 30–40 mm/year, four new suburban subsidence centers have been formed. Several measures were adopted to mitigate and prevent land subsidence disasters. These included restricting groundwater exploitation, groundwater injection, prohibiting use in the specific zone, a pricing policy for water resources, advocating water-saving technology, and strict enforcement of groundwater laws. Although the subsidence area is still increasing slowly, the subsidence rate is being controlled.     

Analysis of post-disaster damage and disruptive impacts on the operating status of small businesses after Hurricane Katrina

When small businesses are impacted by natural hazard events, hazard and sociological researchers may have access to collect data from a sample of open businesses, in hopes of distilling lessons that might help reduce vulnerability to future disasters. Lessons from demised businesses might be more useful in reducing business closure for increasing business sustainability to disasters. Using interviews from a random sample of 371 open and 126 closed businesses’ experiences with Hurricane Katrina, discrete choice methods examine the relationship between the impact of post-disaster damage, loss of lifelines, types of delays in reopening, and cascading damages on business continuity. This unique sample offers the opportunity to determine whether damage to operating businesses was different than that of demised businesses. Respondents provided pre-Katrina data up through the last interviews in 2013. Results demonstrate that damage may have a short-term effect on operating status; it was associated with immediate demise but had much less effect on longer-term recovery. Additionally, it is evident that there is one path to failure. Businesses that did reopen, but later closed, may have been impacted by a cascade of both exogenous and endogenous shocks.     

Assessment of potential sediment disasters and resilience management of mountain roads using environmental indicators

In recent years, extreme rainfall events occur frequently, causing serious watershed sediment disasters, destroying mountain roads, and endangering the safety of residents' lives and property. This study aims to deal with the spatial change of potential sediment movement on the road slope pre-disaster and to screen disaster hot spots for early warning and control system. The conceptual model is used to simulate the distribution of primary and/or derived disasters on a watershed scale to assess the impact of sediment disasters caused by heavy rain event. Correlation analysis shows that the models in assessment of primary disaster and derived disaster are significantly correlated with the collapse ratio and disaster ratio, respectively. Since the primary disaster has been considered when calculating the derived disaster risk, the terrain subdivision along Provincial Highway 21 (Tai-21) is extracted to understand the derived sediment disaster on the road slope. The model can effectively evaluate the road sections prone to disasters. According to the risk level, the hot spot of road slope disasters and the management of disaster resilience are determined and can be the reference for disaster prevention and control.

     

Key factors affecting sustained business operations after an earthquake: a case study from New Beichuan,China, 2013–2017

Most disaster research has focused on business recovery at a point in time or over a short period of time, with the goal of summarizing the experience to reduce business vulnerability in future disasters. However, studies on long-term business recovery processes may be more useful for providing lessons that support sustained business operations after a disaster. This study considers the changes in business’ operating statuses following the initial survival of a large earthquake and examines how different factors influence sustained business operations during the long-term recovery after a disaster. The study uses logistic regression techniques along with field investigations and questionnaire data collected from 256 New Beichuan businesses that remained open following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China. The study results showed that some of the original surviving businesses closed during the subsequent post-disaster operation process. As such, identifying businesses reopening after the disaster cannot be equated with long-term recovery. Factors significantly influencing the sustained operation of a business after the Wenchuan earthquake included: pre-disaster financial conditions, post-disaster monthly average profit, borrowing of money from family or friends, the business owner’s gender, and government subsidies. Study findings have important theoretical implications for research on the long-term recovery of businesses after an earthquake. Findings also have practical value for business owners selecting post-disaster sustainable operation strategies.