Decolonization and the Making of Middle Indonesia

Indonesia contains about 200 provincial cities with populations between 50,000 and one million, yet they have attracted far less scholarly attention than the country's few million-plus cities. Recent democratization and decentralization have brought to light patterns of communal and local mobilization in these cities, centered on elections and other political events, that have not been seen in Indonesia since the 1950s and early 1960s. Provincial cities have talked back to the central state in ways that belie their supposed passivity as expressed in the term "urban involution." This study attempts to build a synthetic and historical explanation for those patterns by examining the social embeddedness of the state in the provincial city. Most of Indonesia's towns and cities, particularly beyond Java, became urban only through the formation of the modern colonial state from the mid- to late 19th century onward. After decolonization began in 1945, the expanding but chronically underfunded bureaucracy became an arena for contestation among the emerging middle classes in these urban centers, which lacked manufacturing. The new provincial classes were politically significant because of their numbers and their mobilizing skills rather than their wealth. They successfully seized the state at the local level. The central state, anxious to establish political stability, appeased them with substantial political transfer rents, particularly during the oil boom years of the early to middle New Order.     

Modeling India’s Coal Production with a Negatively Skewed Curve-Fitting Model

India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India.     

Potential for Coal-to-Liquids Conversion in the United States—Fischer–Tropsch Synthesis

The United States has the world’s largest coal reserves and Montana the highest potential for mega-mine development. Consequently, a large-scale effort to convert coal to liquids (CTL) has been proposed to create a major source of domestic transportation fuels from coal, and some prominent Montanans want to be at the center of that effort. We calculate that the energy efficiency of the best existing Fischer–Tropsch (FT) process applied to average coal in Montana is less than 1/2 of the corresponding efficiency of an average crude oil refining process. The resulting CO₂ emissions are 20 times (2000%) higher for CTL than for conventional petroleum products. One barrel of the FT fuel requires roughly 800 kg of coal and 800 kg of water. The minimum energy cost of subsurface CO₂ sequestration would be at least 40% of the FT fuel energy, essentially halving energy efficiency of the process. We argue therefore that CTL conversion is not the most valuable use for the coal, nor will it ever be, as long as it is economical to use natural gas for electric power generation. This finding results from the low efficiency inherent in FT synthesis, and is independent of the monumental FT plant construction costs, mine construction costs, acute lack of water, and the associated environmental impacts for Montana.

入世对我国常规化石能源产业发展的影响分析

能源作为关系国家经济发展和国家政治经济安全的重要物质基础,一直受到人们的普遍关注。中国加入世界贸易组织后,随着经济全球化和贸易自由化进程的加快,必然会对国内乃至世界能源的开发和利用产生一系列的影响。文章试图从目前我国的能源现状出发,多角度的探讨入世对我国煤炭、石油、天然气产业发展带来的机遇和挑战,以期能够为我国今后的能源产业发展实践提供一些参考。     

巴基斯坦能源发展演变特征分析

以巴基斯坦能源为研究对象,在对巴基斯坦各类能源发展情况进行概述的基础上,通过能源生产、能源消费和能源结构变化,总结了1971—2016年巴基斯坦能源发展演变特征。结果表明：巴基斯坦能源种类丰富,但本国能源生产不足,难以满足经济社会发展对能源需求,能源短缺现象严重,本国能源供需差额处于逐年扩大态势,供需差额平均年增加5.7%。巴基斯坦能源生产和消费结构以天然气占主导,其次为石油,水能、煤炭和核能以及新能源,各类能源生产结构占比分别为80:9:6:4:1:0.14;各类能源消费结构占比为49:33:9:6:2:1。巴基斯坦能源进口量日益增加,但随着本国能源大量开采,巴基斯坦对外依存度整体减弱,从1971年的75%下降至2016年的32%。     

Decadal decrease of Antarctic sea ice extent inferred from whaling records revisited on the basis of historical and modern sea ice records

In previous work, whaling catch positions were used as a proxy record for the position of the Antarctic sea ice edge and mean sea ice extent greater than the present one spanning 2.8° latitude was postulated to have occurred in the pre-1950s period, compared to extents observed since 1973 from microwave satellite imagery. The previous conclusion of an extended northern latitude for ice extent in the earlier epoch applied only to the January (mid-summer) period. For this summer period, however, there are also possible differences between ship and satellite-derived measurements. Our work showed a consistent summer offset (November-December), with the ship-observed ice edge 1 - 1.5° north of the satellite-derived ice edge. We further reexamine the use of whale catch as an ice edge proxy where agreement was claimed between the satellite ice edge (1973-1987) and the ship whale catch positions. This examination shows that, while there may be a linear correlation between ice edge position and whale catch data, the slope of the line deviates from unity and the ice edge is also further north in the whale catch data than in the satellite data for most latitudes. We compare the historical (direct) record and modern satellite maps of ice edge position accounting for these differences in ship and satellite observations. This comparison shows that only regional perturbations took place earlier, without significant deviations in the mean ice extents, from the pre-1950s to the post-1970s. This conclusion contradicts that previously stated from the analysis of whale catch data that indicated Antarctic sea ice extent changes were circumpolar rather than regional in nature between the two periods.     

中国煤炭资源供应格局演变及流动路径分析

利用1949—2008年的相关统计数据,分析中国煤炭资源供应格局和流动路径,结果表明:(1)国家政策变动对中国煤炭资源消费规模影响深刻,每一次政策变化都会造成能源消费规模的波动,近年来强烈的能源需求使得我国煤炭供应不得不面临进口的现实;(2)受能源需求和资源禀赋的双重压力,大规模、跨区域、长距离的煤炭运输成为我国能源运输体系的重要特征;(3)尽管煤炭运输方式在向铁路、水路和公路组合并用的多元化发展,但仍然不能满足旺盛的能源需求,煤炭运输瓶颈始终存在,变输煤为输电是缓解当前煤炭运输困难的一个途径。     

Human-induced change in sedimentary trace metals and phosphorus in Chaohu Lake,China, over the past half-millennium

We present a sedimentary geochemical record of human perturbation in the watershed and related changes in trace metals (Cr, Ni, Zn and Pb), phosphorus and abundant rock-forming elements (Al, Fe, K, Mg, etc.) in Chaohu Lake over the past 500 years, a period spanning historical agricultural expansion and modern economic development. The record exhibited a stable terrestrial detrital input to Chaohu Lake before ca. 1540 AD, a period with less human perturbation of the watershed, which resulted in low and constant values of trace metals and phosphorus (TP) concentrations as well as Al, Fe, K, Mg, fine silt (<16 μm), the chemical index of alteration (CIA) and K/Na ratio. Two periods of successive marked increases in Al, Fe, K, Mg, fine silt, chemical index of alteration (CIA) and K/Na ratio occurred after ca. 1540 AD and 1950 AD. The former period apparently resulted from enhanced well-weathered topsoil erosion in the watershed related to the expansion of arable land, and the latter resulted from further enhancement of human perturbation in the watershed during the modern period. Concentrations of trace metals and TP were positively correlated with that of the rock-forming elements and fine silt. Trace metal pollution was limited during 1540–1950 AD, according to the low enrichment factors (EFs = 0.8–1.1), when an increase in trace metal concentrations was also linked to changes in detrital input. In addition to detrital regulation, pollution also contributed to an increase in TP concentrations (average EF 1.4) during 1540–1950 AD and the average accumulation rate of anthropogenic phosphorus was 87.3 mg m⁻² a⁻¹. Anthropogenic phosphorus increased further and Pb and Zn pollution also occurred after 1950 AD, reaching maximum values after 1980 AD, when the average accumulation rates of anthropogenic Zn, Pb and phosphorus (mainly in the form of NaOH-P) were 242.2, 43.3 and 811.8 mg m⁻² a⁻¹, respectively. The increase in phosphorus pollution in recent decades is probably from the domestic sewage sources of Hefei City and non-point sources related to agricultural utilization of commercial fertilizer, whereas Zn and Pb pollution is probably derived mainly from industrial sources of Hefei City, as deduced from their spatial variations in the sediments of the river mouths.     

Spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the countries along the Belt and Road 1950–2050

This paper uses data for the period 1950–2050 compiled by the United Nations Population Division together with methods including spatial autocorrelation analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis and the standard deviational ellipse, to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of population and urbanization in the 75 countries located along the routes of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, to identify future population growth and urbanization hotspots. The results reveal the following: First, in 2015, the majority of Belt and Road countries in Europe, South Asia and Southeast Asia had high population densities, whereas most countries in Central Asia, North Africa and West Asia, as well as Russia and Mongolia, had low population densities; the majority of countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, West Asia and North Africa had rapid population growth, whereas many countries in Europe had negative population growth; and five Belt and Road countries are in the initial stage of urbanization, 44 countries are in the acceleration stage of urbanization, and 26 are in the terminal stage of urbanization. Second, in the century from 1950 to 2050, the mean center of the study area’s population is consistently located in the border region between India and China. Prior to 2000, the trajectory of the mean center was from northwest to southeast, but from 2000 it is on a southward trajectory, as the population of the study area becomes more concentrated. Future population growth hotspots are predicted to be in South Asia, West Asia and Southeast Asia, and hotspot countries for the period 2015–2030 include India, China, Pakistan and Indonesia, though China will move into negative population growth after 2030. Third, the overall urban population of Belt and Road countries increased from 22% in 1950 to 49% in 2015, and it is expected to gradually catch up with the world average, reaching 64% in 2050. The different levels of urbanization in different countries display significant spatial dependency, and in the hundred-year period under consideration, this dependency increases before eventually weakening. Fourth, between 2015 and 2030, urban population hotspots will include Thailand, China, Laos and Albania, while Kuwait, Cyprus, Qatar and Estonia will be urban “coldspots.” Fifth, there were 293 cities with populations over 1 million located along the Belt and Road in 2015, but that number is expected to increase to 377 by 2030. Of those, 43 will be in China, with many of the others located in India, Indonesia and the eastern Mediterranean.     

浅析南太平洋海上战略通道在中国能源运输安全的地位、面临的风险及中国的对策

随着世界能源贸易的增长,能源运输通道安全问题日益突出。在新的全球能源棋局中,南美洲应该成为中国能源来源的延伸区域。争夺石油与确保石油安全历来是各国政治、经济和军事的重点,而能源运输通道具有更加重要的战略价值,其重要性不逊于能源储藏中心。南太平洋是中国从南美进口能源的重要路线。随着中国从南美不断扩大进口能源,南太平洋海上战略通道将成为中国未来重要的能源运输通道。然而,南太平洋海上战略通道面临着许多现实威胁并受制于各种不确定的因素。只有紧紧把握全球能源的大棋局,才能从整体上理清海上战略通道的脉络,维护我国的能源安全利益。维护海上战略通道的安全应该站在国家大安全的高度上,即从国内和国际两个层次上规划应对之策。     

Unconventional Energy Resources: 2011 Review

This report contains nine unconventional energy resource commodity summaries prepared by committees of the Energy Minerals Division (EMD) of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. Unconventional energy resources, as used in this report, are those energy resources that do not occur in discrete oil or gas reservoirs held in structural or stratigraphic traps in sedimentary basins. These resources include coal, coalbed methane, gas hydrates, tight gas sands, gas shale and shale oil, geothermal resources, oil sands, oil shale, and uranium resources. Current U.S. and global research and development activities are summarized for each unconventional energy commodity in the topical sections of this report. Coal and uranium are expected to supply a significant portion of the world’s energy mix in coming years. Coalbed methane continues to supply about 9% of the U.S. gas production and exploration is expanding in other countries. Recently, natural gas produced from shale and low-permeability (tight) sandstone has made a significant contribution to the energy supply of the United States and is an increasing target for exploration around the world. In addition, oil from shale and heavy oil from sandstone are a new exploration focus in many areas (including the Green River area of Wyoming and northern Alberta). In recent years, research in the areas of geothermal energy sources and gas hydrates has continued to advance. Reviews of the current research and the stages of development of these unconventional energy resources are described in the various sections of this report.     

Kansas Energy Sources: A Geological Review

Kansas produces both conventional energy (oil, gas, and coal) and nonconventional (coalbed gas, wind, hydropower, nuclear, geothermal, solar, and biofuels) and ranks the 22nd in state energy production in the U.S. Nonrenewable conventional petroleum is the most important energy source with nonrenewable, nonconventional coalbed methane gas becoming increasingly important. Many stratigraphic units produce oil and/or gas somewhere in the state with the exception of the Salina Basin in north-central Kansas. Coalbed methane is produced from shallow wells drilled into the thin coal units in southeastern Kansas. At present, only two surface coal mines are active in southeastern Kansas. Although Kansas has been a major exporter of energy in the past (it ranked first in oil production in 1916), now, it is an energy importer.     

基于GFI模型的西安市能源消费碳排放因素分解研究

基于2000-2015年西安市能源消费量数据,采用碳排放模型和GFI模型,分析区域能源消费碳排放量的变化趋势及影响因素,探讨西安市能源消费碳排放的拉动与抑制要素的互动关系及影响。结果表明：（1）西安市能源消费碳排放量总体呈现上升趋势,煤炭、原油消费为主要碳源。（2）能源利用结构正在发生转变,低能耗低碳排的能源消费量逐年上升,传统能源利用量正日趋减少。（3）经济发展要素和人口要素是西安市能源消费碳排放的主要拉动因素,能源结构要素拉动效应不显著,短期内不易改变;能源强度对能源消费碳排放具有抑制作用,且呈现增强态势,但效果不明显。最后提出西安市能源消费碳排放减排建议。     

Efficient Generation Portfolio Construction Using Time-Varying Correlations

We constructed a procurement portfolio for the Indian power sector using two variants of the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model to derive time-varying correlations between major coal indices. We used prices and qualities of observed cargos to adjust indices for quality gaps as well as for freight costs and power plant efficiency factors. Using the relative homogeneity of the energy content of imports from Australia, South Africa, and Indonesia, we found that the regional seaborne market is highly correlated during normal economic conditions, while suffering brief departures in correlation during demand and supply shocks. Our results show that the buying behavior of power producers is aligned with the mean-variance efficient portfolio of delivered prices using time-varying correlation estimates, but not free-on-board coal index prices. This study challenges the notion that thermal coal importers only source material with a freight price advantage and highlights the importance of coal quality gaps in power production.     

A Sustainable U.S. Energy Plan

This report gives guidance on what could be done to overcome the political stalemate that has long blocked the creation of a sustainable energy plan, leaving the United States vulnerable to oil imports while emitting large amounts of greenhouse gases. An overall energy policy is suggested for use by political leaders, along with specific goals on climate change and national security. This report proposes a timetable by which the climate change and national security goals should be accomplished. Converting these political goals into a cost-effective energy plan that would continue to get long-term political support would be the task of the technical community. A generic process is described which applies to all future energy systems and would give guidance to the technical community on how to create a mix of energy sources and conservation. This generic process is then tested on three possible energy futures. One energy future proposes that all of our electricity should come from renewable sources within 10 years. It is shown to be inadequate and would exacerbate environmental risks. The second possible energy future adds far more nuclear energy and coal plants with carbon capture and sequestration to the above renewable-only proposal. This second plan was a significant improvement over the all-renewable energy proposal, but does not address how transportation might be accomplished in the future. Converting coal to liquid fuels is identified as the major means to produce liquid fuels, as long as non-carbon dioxide emitting sources of process heat/hydrogen are employed in this coal conversion process. The third proposal, called an Energy Family approach, places first emphasis on conservation and then creates a mix of energy sources, renewable, nuclear, coal, natural gas, and some oil that could meet all the energy demands of a modern society, while staying within environmental and national security limits. This third approach appears to be most likely to get continuing support. There can be significant progress through “Second Generation” conservation, which extracts much more energy from our existing electrical generation and transmission system. Coal would have to undergo a major transformation from producing electricity to producing liquid fuels for transportation. Transportation and space heating and cooling would be far more electrified. Nuclear power would have to be expanded to replace many of the phased out coal plants, to provide electricity for transportation, and to supply high-temperature process heat and hydrogen. Long-term programs need to be put in place to assure nuclear power’s continuing contribution. Finally, energy storage is a component which is often overlooked, but is essential. It could overcome fundamental renewable energy difficulties of variability and the possibility of wind power to create electrical grid instabilities. It is shown that an Energy Family approach could accelerate the development of renewable energy.     

MAKING THE STRANGE FAMILIAR: GEOGRAPHICAL ANALOGY IN GLOBAL GEOPOLITICS*

ABSTRACT. In several publications in the 1950s, Donald Meinig raised two themes that are central to contemporary “critical geopolitics”: criticizing the idea of a determining global physical geography that directs global geopolitics, and suggesting that geographical labels and geopolitical concepts have political consequences. I take off from Meinig's insight about geopolitics as an active process of naming and acting by discussing the broad power of analogy in world politics and by examining recent use of two geographical analogies—the Macedonian syndrome and balkanization—as symptomatic of a wider process of making the strange familiar by recycling geographical analogies.     

Impact of climate change and variability on water resources in Heihe River Basin

Studies indicate that the climate has experienced a dramatic change in the Heihe River Basin with scope of temperature rise reaching 0.5-1.1oC in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, precipitation increased 18.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 6.5 mm in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990, water resources decreased 2.6×108 m3 in the 1990s compared to the 1950s, and 0.4×108 m3 in the 1990s compared to the mean value of the period 1960-1990. These changes have exerted a greater effect on the local environment and socio-economy, and also made the condition worsening in water resources utilizations in the Heihe Rver Basin.     

欧盟碳减排目标的经济可能性评估

经济发展与能源消耗有着密切的关系,文章通过选取1994年至2009年欧盟27国的人口、经济和能源数据,利用碳排放动力学模型对欧盟关于2050年前削减温室气体排放80-95%的承诺进行预测,并对欧盟目标下的减排情景进行了分析。结果表明：（1）以当前的技术进步速率下,沿最优平稳经济增长路线,到2050年欧盟的碳排放量将为775.608MtC,达不到预定的减排要求;（2）在最优经济增长速度得出总能源消费量的基础上,采用调整能源结构与碳捕捉技术,预期可以达到设定减排80%的任务。其每一期的煤炭占比、石油占比、天然气占比应分别有4%、2.26%、1.23%转移至非碳能源占比,非碳能源的上升速率应达到2.21%/年;（3）若以历史的能源结构转移趋势预测未来的能源结构占比,即使考虑能源利用效率和碳捕捉技术的预期目标,欧盟仍然达不到在2050年的减排目标;（4）考虑欧盟提出的四种减排路径上下限组合,可预计出到2050年欧盟的减排范围在80.51%-87.16%;（5）若欧盟重振工业（特别是制造业）,即使考虑欧盟制定的减排路径,仍存在着达不到减排预期的可能。     

中国与全球能源网络的互动逻辑与格局转变

当前中国正处于从油气时代向可再生能源时代转变的关键时期,中国能源需求结构和能源利用形式的变化决定了中国与全球能源的互动逻辑发生了深刻转变。为更好理解中国与全球的能源互动过程,本文探讨了全球能源互动的基本理论认知,并借助复杂网络、投入产出分析等技术方法分析了中国与全球能源互动格局及其变化。研究发现中国与全球能源互动的范围不断扩大,程度不断加深,从油气贸易到可再生能源贸易,从油气为主的投资到多元化能源品种的投资,从传统能源贸易到隐含能源贸易等方面,中国逐渐塑造了多元化的全球能源格局。主要结论为：① “多煤少油缺气”的能源生产结构和巨大的油气需求,决定了保障海外油气供应是中国与全球能源互动最直接的逻辑,互动区域主要集中在油气富集的国家和地区。② 随着可再生能源的发展,中国与全球能源互动逻辑从单纯的油气贸易转变为涉及可再生能源相关产品的贸易,凭借制造业优势,互动范围从油气富集的国家和地区拓展到全球拥有可再生能源发展和装机需求的国家,形成了覆盖全球主要国家和地区的可再生能源贸易新格局。③ 中国的海外能源投资目标从有限数量的东道国扩展到欧洲、东南亚等国家和地区,投资业务不仅局限在油气领域,也扩大到太阳能、风能和水能等可再生能源发电项目及电网等基础设施建设投资。④ 中国作为全球制造业大国和贸易大国,在全球化程度加深的背景下,部分能源隐含于全球生产网络和贸易网络中进行二次分配,中国与全球能源互动范围进一步拓展到与中国具有一般商品贸易关系的国家和地区,形成了全球“能源中枢”的功能。本文可为深刻认识中国与全球的能源互动关系,维护国家能源安全和参与全球能源经济治理提供理论视角与决策依据。     

Agribusiness on a Grand Scale – Felda's Sahabat Complex in East Malaysia

While agribusiness is normally associated with western multinational companies, Malaysia provides an alternative example of a Third World agribusiness, the Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA). FELDA has evolved through an advisory stage and then a major land settlement agency phase, assisting Malaysia's rural poor, to its present position as a major employer of immigrant agricultural labour and as a large commercial business in palm oil exporting. This recent agribusiness approach is best exemplified by FELDA's Sahabat complex of 54 schemes in Eastern Sabah. There, mono‐cultural oil palm cropping has been successfully developed while earlier environmental concerns have been largely ignored. Plans for Sahabat have been modified to accommodate immigrant labourers from Indonesia and the Philippines rather than local settlers from Malaysia. A modernised plantation approach has taken over from the initial contract farming and social engineering approach.