Basin and crustal velocity structure models for the simulation of strong ground motions in the Kinki area,Japan

We constructed a prototype of the basin and crustal structure model for the Kinki area, southwest of Japan, for the simulation of strong ground motions of hypothetical crustal and subduction earthquakes. We collected results of the deep seismic velocity profiles obtained by the reflection experiments and seismic imaging results, which were conducted in the Kinki area. The obtained profiles give underground velocity structures of the crust, from the surface to the subducting slab. We also gather the basin velocity structure information of the Osaka, Kyoto, Nara, and Ohmi basins. To examine the applicability of the constructed velocity structure model to the ground motion simulation, we simulated waveforms of an intermediate size event occurred near the source area of the hypothetical subduction earthquakes. Simulated ground motions using the basin and crustal velocity structure model are fairly well reproducing the observations at most of stations, and the constructed basin and crustal velocity structure model is applicable for the long-period ground motion simulations.     

Simulation of strong earthquake characteristics of a scenario earthquake (MS7.5) based on the enlightenment of 2022 MS6.9 earthquake in Menyuan

The Menyuan area is an important transportation hub in the Hexi Corridor. The Menyuan M_S6.9 earthquake that occurred on January 8, 2022 had a major impact on the local infrastructure and transportation of this region. Due to the high possibility of similar strong earthquakes occurring in this area in the future, preliminary assessment of the seismic intensity characteristics of destructive earthquakes in this region is essential for effective disaster control. This paper uses the empirical Green′s function (EGF) method as a numerical simulation tool to predict the ground motion intensity of Datong Autonomous County under the action of the scenario earthquake (M_S7.5). Seismic records of aftershocks of the 2016 Menyuan M_S6.4 earthquake were used as Green’s functions for this simulation. The uncertainties associated with various source parameters were considered, and 36 possible earthquake scenarios were simulated to obtain 72 sets of horizontal ground motions in Datong County. The obtained peak ground acceleration (PGA) vs. time histories of the horizontal ground motion were screened using the attenuation relationships provided by the fifth-edition of China's Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zoning Map and the NGA-West2 dataset. Ultimately, 32 possible acceleration-time histories were selected for further analysis. The screened PGA values ranged from 78.8 to 153 cm/s². The uncertainty associated with the initial rupture point was found to greatly affect the results of the earthquake simulation. The average acceleration spectrum of the selected acceleration-time history exceeded the expected spectrum of a intermediate earthquake, which means that buildings in Datong County might sustain some damage should the scenario earthquake occur. This research can provide reliable ground motion input for urban earthquake damage simulation and seismic design in Datong County. Growing the dataset of small earthquakes recorded in this region will facilitate the large-scale simulation of ground motions under different earthquake scenarios.     

Validation of the SCEC Broadband Platform simulations for tall building risk assessments considering spectral shape and duration of the ground motion

Earthquake simulation technologies are advancing to the stage of enabling realistic simulations of past earthquakes as well as characterizations of more extreme events, thus holding promise of yielding novel insights and data for earthquake engineering. With the goal of developing confidence in the engineering applications of simulated ground motions, this paper focuses on validation of simulations for response history analysis through comparative assessments of building performance obtained using sets of recorded and simulated motions. Simulated ground motions of past earthquakes, obtained through a larger validation study of the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform, are used for the case study. Two tall buildings, a 20‐story concrete frame and a 42‐story concrete core wall building, are analyzed under comparable sets of simulated and recorded motions at increasing levels of ground motion intensity, up to structural collapse, to check for statistically significant differences between the responses to simulated and recorded motions. Spectral shape and significant duration are explicitly considered when selecting ground motions. Considered demands include story drift ratios, floor accelerations, and collapse response. These comparisons not only yield similar results in most cases but also reveal instances where certain simulated ground motions can result in biased responses. The source of bias is traced to differences in correlations of spectral values in some of the stochastic ground motion simulations. When the differences in correlations are removed, simulated and recorded motions yield comparable results. This study highlights the utility of physics‐based simulations, and particularly the Southern California Earthquake Center Broadband Platform as a useful tool for engineering applications.     

Rapid estimation of fault rupture extent using envelopes of acceleration

We present a new strategy to estimate the geometry of a rupture on a finite fault for rapid reporting of seismic intensity. We use envelope attenuation relationships which were presented by Huo et al. (Acta Seismol Sin 16:519–525, 1994). An important base of this work is the fault finiteness theory. We propose a new model to simulate high-frequency motions from earthquakes with large rupture dimension. The envelope of high-frequency ground motion from a large earthquake can be expressed as a root-mean-squared combination of envelope functions from smaller earthquakes. We use simulated envelopes of ground acceleration to estimate the direction and along-strike length of a rupture. Using the Wenchuan and Jiji (Chi-Chi) earthquake dataset, we parameterize the fault geometry with an epicenter, a fault strike, and along-strike rupture lengths. So this methodology seems quite appropriate for the rapid reporting systems of seismic intensity.     

海域俯冲带高频地震动模拟?以2021年2月13日日本福岛MS7.1地震为例

2021年2月13日,日本福岛近海发生M_S7.1地震,震中距海岸线约70 km,震源深度接近60 km,造成了较大范围的震害影响。考虑地震应急及地震动强度特征预测的应用前景等,利用经验格林函数法快速估计了本次地震的高频地震动（1.0～20.0 Hz）空间分布特征及加速度时程,并结合实际地形、场地覆盖层等信息对部分台站地震动模拟结果进行修正,最终获得较可靠的地震动预测结果。研究结果表明,在具备合适小震记录时（余震及前震）,可较准确地再现大震的高频地震动主要特征,模拟结果与真实记录拟合较好;地震动模拟过程中需考虑盆地等特殊地形及覆盖土层对地震动的放大作用影响,这也是未来利用经验格林函数法合成大震时需重点考虑的因素。     

近断层脉冲型地震动的模拟方法

近断层地震动的向前方向性效应和永久地面位移效应导致其速度时程表现为长周期、大峰值的速度脉冲,其位移时程表现为阶跃型脉冲. 针对这些特点,同时考虑向前方向性效应和永久地面位移效应,提出了一种简单的、连续函数形式表达的等效速度脉冲模型. 在该模型中,包含描述速度脉冲周期、峰值和形状的5个待定参数,方便了实际脉冲型地震记录的拟合及模拟. 等效速度脉冲模型只包含单一的频率成分,不能反映脉冲型地震记录的高频成分. 根据对11次地震28条地震记录的分析, 速度脉冲的频率一般小于1Hz. 因此, 在模拟脉冲型地震记录的方法中,分别模拟低频脉冲成分和高频成分,并将两者叠加生成近断层脉冲型地震动的模拟时程.      

A macroseismic intensity prediction equation for intermediate depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region,Romania

The use of shake maps in terms of macroseismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems as well as intensity based seismic hazard assessments provides a valuable supplement to typical studies based on recorded ground motion parameters. A requirement for such applications is ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity, which have the advantages of good data availability and the direct relation of intensity to earthquake damage. In the current study, we derive intensity prediction equations for the Vrancea region in Romania, which is characterized by the frequent occurrence of large intermediate depth earthquakes giving rise to a peculiar anisotropic ground shaking distribution. The GMPE have a physical basis and take the anisotropic intensity distribution into account through an empirical regional correction function. Furthermore, the relations are easy to implement for the user. Relations are derived in terms of epicentral, rupture and Joyner–Boore distance and the obtained relations all provide a new intensity estimate with an uncertainty of ca. 0.6 intensity units.     

川滇区域高频地震动地形效应初探

历次强震表明:局域起伏地形对由高频地震动起决定作用的震害存在显著影响。忽略场地浅表土层的影响,凸起地形场地震害高于凹陷地形。然而,由于地形效应影响因素的复杂多样以及公认地形效应表征模型的缺失,已有的宽频带地震动模拟与预测方法并未考虑高频地震动地形效应,这可能导致对地震动时程及参数的错误估计。为此,本文利用当前较具代表性的地形效应量化表征模型,初步分析了川滇区域高频地震动的地形效应。首先,给出了基于量化表征模型的区域高频地震动地形效应计算分析方案;其次,完整地阐述了该方案在川滇地区的应用,并结合漾濞地震震害考察结果初步验证了川滇高频地震动地形效应分析结果的可靠性;最后,讨论了分析结果的局限并给出其应用于宽频带地震动模拟与预测方法中的初步建议。     

Investigation on the stochastic simulation of strong ground motions for Bucharest area

This short article evaluates the stochastic method of ground motion simulation for Bucharest area using both the single-corner frequency model and recently introduced double-corner frequency models. A dedicated Q model is derived using ground motions obtained during the largest Vrancea earthquakes from the past 30 years. The simulated ground motions are tested against the observed data from the Vrancea earthquakes of August 1986 and May 1990. Moreover, the observed data are also compared against simulations obtained using the Q model derived by Oth et al. (2008). Finally, the results of the simulations show that the derived Q model is better suited for larger magnitude events, while the Q model of Oth et al. (2008) provides better results for smaller earthquakes.     

玛多7.4级地震和门源6.9级地震前佐署地下流体异常特征分析

2021年5月22日青海玛多发生了M_S7.4地震,该次地震打破了中国大陆长时间的7级地震平静,随后在2022年1月8日发生青海门源M_S6.9地震,分析这两次地震前的前兆异常变化对于青藏高原强震孕震过程和强震短临跟踪具有重要意义。通过对两次地震前青海西宁佐署地震台地下流体异常变化特征、同震响应和震后效应特征分析,发现：佐署动水位异常在2021年2月25日和2021年8月25日出现突降异常变化,较好地对应了玛多M_S7.4和门源M_S6.9地震;佐署动水位、水温在2021年7月10日同步出现的趋势性转折异常对门源M_S6.9地震有一定的时空指示意义。佐署台作为构造敏感点,其地下流体异常变化对青海及邻区次级块体上强震具有较好的短期指示意义。     

地震动模拟过程中断层参数的敏感性分析

地震发生后通常无法快速获取较准确的断层参数,这可能会对采用地震动模拟方法进行地震动强度快速评估产生影响。选取美国西部两次地震,采用两种地震动模拟方法,通过改变断层走向、滑移角、倾角和震源深度等主要断层参数进行模拟计算,分析不同参数对地震动参数和反应谱值的影响以及不同方法计算结果的准确性。结果表明:GP方法模拟的结果比EXSIM方法更接近观测值;在参数误差范围内,相比于模拟方法本身的误差,各参数对模拟结果的影响较小,地震动强度快速评估时可以利用较合理的快速反演断层参数进行地震动模拟。     

Prompt seismic data sharing for the 2021 Maduo earthquake in Qinghai province,China

An M_S7.4 earthquake struck west China in Maduo county, Guoluo prefecture, Qinghai province on May 22, 2021, at 2:04 Beijing time (18:04 UTC on May 21, 2021), which broke the quiet period of Chinese mainland for 1382 days without earthquakes of magnitude 7 or higher. The analysis of the seismic data sequence would play an important role in the in-depth study of the Maduo earthquake and the Bayan Har block. The Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration (CEA), compiled observation data recorded through 57 broadband seismometers within 500 km of the earthquake epicenter and intended to share for further researches in earthquake science community. The shared dataset included waveforms of the event and its sequence with magnitudes of 3.0 or higher that occurred between May 22–31, 2021 with a sampling rate of 100 sps along with the continuous waveforms of 20 Hz and 100 Hz. Additionally, the seismic instrument response files also were shared. The event and continuous waveform records could be downloaded by submitting a request through the web platform of the Earthquake Science Data Center of the Institute of Geophysics, CEA (www.esdc.ac.cn).     

2021年5月21日云南漾濞地震及5月22日青海玛多地震的支持向量机震级估算

2021年5月21日及5月22日,云南漾濞县与青海玛多县分别发生破坏性地震,主震震级分别为M_s6.4级与M_s7.4级。本文基于机器学习中的支持向量机方法,以多类型特征参数为输入建立地震预警震级估算模型SVM-M,离线模拟云南漾濞M_s5.6级前震、M_s6.4级主震以及青海玛多M_s7.4级主震的连续震级估算。结果表明:对于云南漾濞M_s5.6级前震,支持向量机方法在首台触发后1s可估算震级为5.6级,且随着首台触发时间的增加,估算震级一直在实际震级附近波动;对于云南漾濞M_s6.4级主震和青海玛多M_s7.4级主震,随着首台触发时间的增加,支持向量机方法对于大震低估问题得到了有效的改善,且震级估算结果逐渐接近实际震级。同时,这3次地震的震级估算离线模拟表明:引入震源距的支持向量机方法（SVM-M1模型）对于震级估算有更好的稳定性,且在地震预警系统的震级估算中有着潜在的应用前景。     

Ground-motion scenarios on Mt. Etna inferred from empirical relations and synthetic simulations

Ground motion scenarios for Mt. Etna are created using synthetic simulations with the program EXSIM. A large data set of weak motion records is exploited to identify important input parameters which govern the modeling of wave propagation effects, such as Q-values, high frequency cut-off and geometrical spreading. These parameters are used in the simulation of ground motion for earthquakes causing severe damage in the area. Two seismotectonic regimes are distinguished. Volcano-tectonic events, though being of limited magnitude (M_max ca. 5), cause strong ground shaking for their shallow foci. Being rather frequent, these events represent a considerable threat to cities and villages on the flanks of the volcano. A second regime is related to earthquakes with foci in the crust, at depths of 10–30 km, and magnitudes ranging from 6 to 7. In our synthetic scenarios, we chose two examples of volcano-tectonic events, i.e. the October 29, 2002, Bongiardo event (I = VIII) and the May 8, 1914, Linera earthquake (I = IX–X). A further scenario regards the February 20, 1818 event, considered representative for stronger earthquakes with foci in the crust. We were able to reproduce the essential features of the macroseismic field, in particular accounting for the possibility of strong site effects. We learned that stress drop estimated for weak motion events is probably too low to explain the intensity of ground motion during stronger earthquakes. This corresponds to findings reported in the literature claiming an increase of stress drop with earthquake size.     

Simulation method of near-fault pulse-type ground motion

Introduction With the development of the economy of China, it is possible to build large-span bridges, pipelines, dams and other lifeline structures in the seismically active regions or through the active faults. In addition, some isolated and energy diss…     

Comparison of the earthquake detection abilities of PhaseNet and EQTransformer with the Yangbi and Maduo earthquakes

PhaseNet and EQTransformer are two state-of-the-art earthquake detection methods that have been increasingly applied worldwide. To evaluate the generalization ability of the two models and provide insights for the development of new models, this study took the sequences of the Yunnan Yangbi M6.4 earthquake and Qinghai Maduo M7.4 earthquake as examples to compare the earthquake detection effects of the two abovementioned models as well as their abilities to process dense seismic sequences. It has been demonstrated from the corresponding research that due to the differences in seismic waveforms found in different geographical regions, the picking performance is reduced when the two models are applied directly to the detection of the Yangbi and Maduo earthquakes. PhaseNet has a higher recall than EQTransformer, but the recall of both models is reduced by 13%–56% when compared with the results reported in the original papers. The analysis results indicate that neural networks with deeper layers and complex structures may not necessarily enhance earthquake detection performance. In designing earthquake detection models, attention should be paid to not only the balance of depth, width, and architecture but also to the quality and quantity of the training datasets. In addition, noise datasets should be incorporated during training. According to the continuous waveforms detected 21 days before the Yangbi and Maduo earthquakes, the Yangbi earthquake exhibited foreshock, while the Maduo earthquake showed no foreshock activity, indicating that the two earthquakes’ nucleation processes were different.     

Historical intermediate-depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean Sea Benioff zone: modeling their anomalous macroseismic patterns with stochastic ground-motion simulations

We model the macroseismic damage distribution of four important intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea subduction zone, namely the destructive 1926 M?=?7.7 Rhodes and 1935 M?=?6.9 Crete earthquakes, the unique 1956 M?=?6.9 Amorgos aftershock (recently proposed to be triggered by a shallow event), and the more recent 2002 M?=?5.9 Milos earthquake, which all exhibit spatially anomalous macroseismic patterns. Macroseismic data for these events are collected from published macroseismic databases and compared with the spatial distribution of seismic motions obtained from stochastic simulation, converted to macroseismic intensity (Modified Mercalli scale, I_MM). For this conversion, we present an updated correlation between macroseismic intensities and peak measures of seismic motions (PGA and PGV) for the intermediate-depth earthquakes of the southern Aegean Sea. Input model parameters for the simulations, such as fault dimensions, stress parameters, and attenuation parameters (e.g. back-arc/along anelastic attenuation) are adopted from previous work performed in the area. Site-effects on the observed seismic motions are approximated using generic transfer functions proposed for the broader Aegean Sea area on the basis of V_S30 values from topographic slope proxies. The results are in very good agreement with the observed anomalous damage patterns, for which the largest intensities are often observed at distances >?100 km from the earthquake epicenters. We also consider two additional “prediction” but realistic intermediate-depth earthquake scenarios, and model their macroseismic distributions, to assess their expected damage impact in the broader southern Aegean area. The results suggest that intermediate-depth events, especially north of central Crete, have a prominent effect on a wide area of the outer Hellenic arc, with a very important impact on modern urban centers along northern Crete coasts (e.g. city of Heraklion), in excellent agreement with the available historical information.     

地震动衰减模型在玛多Mw7.3级地震影响场快速评估中的应用

2021年5月22日青海省玛多县发生M_w7.3级地震。震后,根据初步估计的断层走向和破裂长度,基于YU15地震动衰减模型和三种NGA-West2（Next Generation Attenuation-West2）地震动衰减模型快速产出地震区震动图及理论烈度图。在获得强震记录和地表破裂长度信息后,对预测结果进行修正。通过比较理论烈度与调查烈度,并结合震动图分布形态以及衰减模型在2016年新疆呼图壁M_w6.0地震中的应用情况对四种地震动衰减模型的适用性进行了分析。结果表明:在台网稀疏地区,基于地震动衰减模型可在震后快速获得地震动分布,并产出具有应用价值的地震影响场;NGA-West2模型在断层破裂较长的大震中表现优于YU15模型,而在中强地震中后者适用性更强;近实时强震动记录可用来检验模型的适用性并对预测结果进行修正;断层破裂尺度、震源机制和破裂过程等信息的准确估计可有效提高地震影响场预测精度。     

用改进的经验格林函数方法模拟唐山地震动

建筑物的抗震设防需要尽可能地掌握未来大地震强震动记录信息,但大地震强震动记录的匮乏阻碍了抗震设防实践的发展。经验格林函数方法作为模拟地震动的主要方法,可以提供可靠的大地震强震动记录,但也存在着许多问题,如缺乏对大地震断层滑动分布不均匀的描述、用经验确定小震数目、模拟方法受到大小地震相似条件的限制等。文中对上述经验格林函数方法存在的问题进行了研究,改进的经验格林函数方法,有效地解决了上述问题。并用其对唐山大地震进行了模拟,并把模拟的地震动时程和反应谱与实际记录相比较,发现用改进方法模拟的地震动加速度反应谱比用未改进方法模拟结果更接近实际的地震动记录加速度反应谱。由此说明改进的经验格林函数可更准确的模拟地震动。