Seismicity patterns before the M=5.8 2002, Palermo (Italy) earthquake: seismic quiescence and accelerating seismicity

Seismic quiescence and accelerating seismic energy release are considered as possible spatio-temporal patterns of the preparation process of the 6 September 2002 Palermo, Italy, earthquake (M 5.8). The detailed properties of the quiescence are analyzed applying the RTL algorithm. The RTL algorithm is based on the analysis of the RTL prognostic parameter, which is designed in such a way that it has a negative value if, in comparison with long-term background, there is a deficiency of events in the time–space vicinity of the tested point. The RTL parameter increases if activation of seismicity takes place. The RTL algorithm identified that a seismic quiescence started from the beginning of November 2001 and reached its minimum at the end of May 2002. The Palermo 2002 earthquake occurred 2 months after the RTL parameter restored its long-term background level. The application of a log-periodic time-to-failure model gives a “predicted” (in retrospect) magnitude M=6.2 main shock on 5 May 2002.     

Reassessing the earthquake hazard in Kerala based on the historical and current seismicity

Given the lack of proper constraints in understanding earthquake mechanisms in the cratonic interiors and the general absence of good quality database, here we reassess the seismic hazard in the province of Kerala, a part of the •stable continental interior•, based on an improved historical and instrumental database. The temporal pattern of the current seismicity suggests that >60% of the microtremors in Kerala occurs with a time lag after the peak rainfall, indicating that hydroseismicity may be a plausible model to explain the low-level seismicity in this region. Further, an increment in overall seismicity rate in the region in the recent years is explained as due to increased anthropogenic activities, which includes changes in hydrological pathways as a consequence of rapid landscape changes. Our analyses of the historical database eliminate a few events that are ascribed to this region; this exercise has also led to identification of a few events, not previously noted. The improved historical database essentially suggests that the central midland region is more prone to seismic activity compared to other parts of Kerala. This region appears to have generated larger number of significant earthquakes; the most prominent being the multiple events (doublets) of 1856 and 1953, whose magnitudes are comparable to that of the 2000/2001 (central Kerala) events. Occurrences of these historical events and the recent earthquakes, and the local geology indicative of pervasive faulting as shown by widely distributed pseudotachylite veins suggest that the NNW-SSE trending faults in central midland Kerala may host discrete potentially active sources that may be capable of generating light to moderate size earthquakes. The frequency of earthquakes in central Kerala evident from the historical database requires that the seismic codes stipulated for this region are made mandatory.     

On self-similarity of premonitory patterns in the regions of natural and induced seismicity

Anticipating the scale invariance of rock fracturing processes, we applied Keilis-Borok’s algorithm M8, originally designed for identifying times of increased probability (TIPS) of occurrence of strong earthquakes (M < 8.0), retrospectively to Koyna earthquakes which occurred in the region after the impoundment of the Shivaji Sagar reservoir in 1962. The algorithm which enables diagnosis of TIPS from the 7th year onwards after the commencement of the earliest available data set showed that the 5.3 magnitude earthquake of 20 September 1980 indeed occurred within a time of increased probability. This result, apart from its potential application to recognizing future TIPS in the region, points to selfsimilarity between the premonitory patterns of natural and induced earthquakes and to scale-invariant nature of their processes. Further, a typical precursory rise in seismicity followed by a relative quiescence was also found to precede all the three larger earthquakes of the sequence.     

Evaluation of earthquake potential along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea using comparisons of GPS strain and seismotectonic parameters

Seismotectonic parameters including the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and multifractal dimensions D₂ and D₁₅ of seismicity patterns (both spatial and temporal) were compared to GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strains measured in the Marmara Sea region of western Turkey along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Comparisons of seismotectonic parameters and GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strain along the NAFZ in the vicinity of the 1999 M7.4 Izmit earthquake reveal a positive correlation (r = 0.5, p = 0.05) between average dilatation and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Significant negative correlation (r = − 0.56, p = 0.03 and r = − 0.56, p = 0.02) was also observed between the spatial fractal dimension D₂ and GPS-derived maximum geodetic and shear strain. This relationship suggests that, as maximum geodetic and shear strains increase, seismicity becomes increasingly clustered.Anomalous interrelationships are observed in the Marmara Sea region prior to the Izmit event along a bend in the NAFZ near the eastern end of the Marmara Sea known as the Northern Boundary Fault (NBF). An asperity is located near the northwest end of the NBF. Along the 50-km length of the NBF, GPS strains become slightly compressive. The correlation between b-value and GPS-derived dilatation suggests that regions in compression have increased probability of larger magnitude rupture. The NBF appears to serve as an impediment to the transfer of strain from east to west along the NAFZ. Recurrence times for large earthquakes along the NBF are larger than in surrounding areas. Temporal clustering of seismicity in the vicinity of the NBF may represent foreshocks of an impending rupture.     

华南新元古代宏体化石特征及生物地层序列

华南的新元古代地层(780~542 Ma)保存有许多经典的地层剖面和丰富的宏体化石记录, 一直是我国新元古代, 特别是南华系和震旦(伊迪卡拉)系地层对比的标准区域。本项研究重新考察了部分重要的标准剖面和化石点, 重点采集了近年来开始研究的云南“江川生物群”, 贵州江口“翁会生物群”的宏体化石, 在总结了前人研究成果的基础上, 集成了最新的研究进展, 综合记录了华南晚新元古代地层中的宏体化石特征, 组合面貌, 据此提出了华南晚新元古代生物地层序列。宏体化石的记录表明在这一时期伴随着显著的气候和环境变化, 发生了一系列重要的生物演化事件, 多细胞的宏观后生动、植物普遍出现了组织分化, 器官形成和发育创新, 以及生物结构和功能的进一步复杂多样化。这种多样化的发展大体可以划分为三个阶段, 分别以震旦(伊迪卡拉)纪的三个宏体化石组合为代表: (1) Anhuiphyton—Thallophyca—Paramecia 宏体藻类化石组合, (2) Enteromorphites—Doushantuophyton—Eoandromeda—Sinospongia 宏体化石组合, (3) Paracharnia—Gaojiashania—Cloudina—Longfengshania 宏体化石组合。由于华南震旦纪宏体化石具有较为独特的组合面貌, 与国外末次冰期后大量出现的伊迪卡拉型生物群(阿瓦隆生物群, 庞德/白海生物群和纳马生物群)如何对比, 还有待深入的研究。本文还重点讨论了华南地区新元古代宏体化石的南、北方对比问题。     

Calcite formation in microbial mats: modeling and quantification of inhomogeneous distribution patterns by a cellular automaton model and multifractal measures

The evolution of early diagenetic calcite cements in microbial mats of recent supratidal sediments of the southern North Sea is modeled in a two-dimensional microscale approach by a cellular automaton model (CAM). Calcite is traced out in the model by virtual calcium distribution patterns obtained from runs under different assumptions concerning sediment-intrinsic conditions. For justification of the CAM, real calcium distribution patterns, documented by scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry (SEM/EDX), are quantitatively compared with the virtual patterns on the basis of multifractal analyses. The formation of high magnesian calcite as a consequence of biogenic anaerobic decomposition of organic matter starts at certain initial calcite domains. In this stage an inhomogeneous and multifractal calcium distribution is characteristic. Nearly complete remineralization of organic matter leads to monofractal behavior of generalized fractal dimensions (D_B(q) ±1.84). The CAM results confirm that calcite formation is a self-determining morphogenetical process and diffusive transport processes of reactants within the mat affect the biogenic calcite formation.     

岩土工程可靠度分析中方差折减函数确定的一般规律

将可靠度理论应用于岩土工程稳定性分析过程中,即使是已证明安全的工程所得到的边坡或地基的失效概率通常较大,导致这一现象的原因是估算的方差偏大。计算土性指标的试验数据仅表征了该试验点的特征,而不是空间平均特征。在随机场理论应用于岩土工程可靠度分析的过程中,方差折减函数是将点特性过渡为空间平均特性的必要参数。首次对闫澍旺等提出的完全不相关距离理论中完全不相关距离的确定方法进行改进,不但理论上有所突破,而且计算方法更为简洁。对折减函数值的确定过程进行了分析,得到了用完全不相关距离方法确定折减函数的一般规律。     

三江平原沼泽湿地格局变化及影响因素分析

为揭示湿地变化剧烈区湿地格局变化过程及规律,利用GIS和RS技术,结合地学信息图谱与空间自相关方法,对1954-2010年三江平原沼泽湿地格局变化及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明:1954-2010年三江平原沼泽湿地面积逐渐减少,88.7%的沼泽湿地丧失,湿地斑块数量呈先增加后减少的趋势;三江平原沼泽湿地的空间聚集性逐渐降低,且空间格局由集中连片分布转变为零星散布;降雨量减少、气温升高及径流量减少,是造成沼泽湿地减少的主要原因之一,地形地貌影响到沼泽湿地的丧失程度,以海拔20~80 m的沼泽湿地面积丧失最多。三江平原沼泽湿地的丧失同时受农业开发、居民点分布、湿地保护区建设影响,距居民点越近,沼泽湿地面积丧失呈指数增加,距保护区越近,沼泽湿地面积丧失越多。     

相关函数法计算相关距离的分析探讨

根据数百个土层土性参数相关距离的计算, 对相关函数法计算相关距离的方法、相关函数型式选择、拟合范围等问题进行了分析探讨。     

泥石流堆积形态与坡降的相关性分析

本文以密云县石城镇贾峪东沟为实验模拟原型,通过小型水槽实验,对沟床纵坡降与泥石流堆积形态的关系进行实验研究。通过实验,获取了不同沟床纵坡降泥石流的堆积长度、宽度、厚度、堆积面积以及堆积形态比方面的数据。通过对实验数据分析,得出沟床纵坡降分别与堆积长度、宽度、厚度、面积与堆积形态比的回归方程及相关系数,为泥石流危险性或危害性评价提供参考。     

新疆塔尔巴哈台-萨吾尔地区多重分形地球化学异常提取及成矿预测

塔尔巴哈台-萨吾尔地区位于中国新疆西北部,目前已发现若干处铜、金矿床,具有很好的成矿潜力。成矿定量预测方法常被用于综合成矿标志信息,进行成矿远景区的定量预测和评价。本文首先结合多重分形理论-奇异性指数模型进行地球化学异常提取,之后通过对区域成矿条件进行综合分析,基于地球化学异常以及构造、岩浆岩、地层与矿化的相关关系构建了塔尔巴哈台-萨吾尔地区铜-金成矿预测模型;研究进一步基于新近的找矿成果,以已知矿床和新近发现的矿化点信息作为依据,利用证据权重方法对研究区铜-金矿化的远景区进行了定量预测。预测结果显示出塔尔巴哈台-萨吾尔地区具有良好的找矿前景,区内存在多个新的成矿远景区,可作为新的找矿勘探的目标,开展进一步找矿勘查工作。     

Correlation between tides and seismicity in Northwestern South America: The case of Colombia

We present the first systematic exploration of earth tides-seismicity correlation in northwestern South America, with a special emphasis in Colombia. For this purpose, we use a dataset of ∼167,000 earthquakes, gathered by the Colombian Seismological Network between 1993 and 2017. Most of the events are intermediate-depth earthquakes from the Bucaramanga seismic nest and the Cauca seismic cluster. For this purpose, we implemented a novel approach for the calculation of tidal phases that considers the relative positions of the Earth-Moon-Sun system at the time of the events. After applying the standard Schuster test to the whole dataset and to several earthquake samples (classified by time, location, magnitude and depth), we found strong correlation anomalies with the diurnal and monthly components of the tide (global log(p) values around −7.0 for the diurnal constituent and −12.1 for the monthly constituent), especially for the intermediate depth events. These anomalies suggest that around 16% of the deep earthquakes in Colombia may be triggered by tides, especially when the monthly phase is between 350°-10°. We attribute our positive results, which favor the tidal-triggering hypothesis, in contrast to previous negative ones to: 1) the size of our dataset, and 2) the method we used to calculate tidal phases. Anyone willing to reproduce our results or to apply our methodology to custom datasets can use the public information system tQuakes that we developed for this work.     

Active faults, seismicity and recent fracturing in the lithosphere of the Baikal rift system

A map of major active faults has been constructed for the Baikal rift system (BRS). Recent active faults are identified using seismological data. The BRS seismicity of the past 40 years is statistically analyzed. Areas of a “stable” concentration of epicenters are revealed. On this basis, a zone of recent fracturing of the lithosphere is identified and its relation to active and developing faults of the BRS is analyzed. The zone of the lithosphere fracturing is a major tectonic structure, which controls both the recent seismic process and the reactivation of ancient faults. It is demonstrated that the available seismological data can provide a basis for a detailed classification of faults by degree of their tectonic activity. Regularities in the distribution of strong earthquakes along the zone of the recent fracturing of the lithosphere are established, as well as regularities in the distribution of strong and weak seismic events relative to transform and other faults. The degree of the fault reactivation is determined by their spatial closeness to the axial zone of the recent rupturing of the lithosphere.     

天津港土性相关距离的计算研究和统计分析

相关距离是随机场理论应用于实际工程可靠度分析的一个重要参数。根据随机场理论,对土性参数相关距离的计算方法进行了研究和改进,提出求解相关距离的波动函数法和加权拟合相关函数法,使相关距离的计算更加简便易行,且精度有所提高。结合大量工程地质勘察资料,对天津港地区典型土层的垂直向相关距离及水平向相关距离进行了计算和统计,获得相关距离的地区性代表值,可作为此地区实际工程的参考。同时,对取样间距及土性指标对相关距离的影响进行了分析,提出了当取样间距变化时相关距离的确定原则,并指出相关距离是反映土的空间固有变异性的基本属性,由不同土性指标求得的相关距离值基本相同。     

青藏块体东北缘6次中强地震前地震相关长度增长现象

为研究大震前地震空间相关长度的变化特征, 分析了青藏块体东北缘6次中强地震前的地震活动的时空演变.在计算空间相关长度过程中, 采用长轴与孕震区主要断裂走向一致的椭圆形空间窗, 并设计了优化程序.比较椭圆形和圆形空间窗的结果, 表明对所研究的6次中强地震前都观测到了增长的地震空间相关长度.椭圆形空间窗的结果比圆形的结果更好, 相关长度增长幅度较大, 曲率参数值较小.利用3种合成地震目录对结果进行了显著性检验.3种随机数据的检验结果都否定了零假设, 表明观察到的模型不是由随机数据干扰造成的, 这一观点的置信水平被证实为99%以上.最后得出主震震级与临界区的尺度(等效半径)关系为logR_e~0.46(±0.02)M, 与理论值符合得较好.      

钦-杭结合带南段庞西垌地区Ag-Au致矿地球化学异常信息识别与提取

基于分形与多重分形理论的非线性化探数据处理方法及以空间加权主成分分析模型为代表的地学多源信息融合技术,为致矿地球化学异常信息的识别和提取提供了有力的工具。本文以钦-杭结合带南段庞西垌地区1∶5万水系沉积物地球化学数据为例,研究如何综合运用多重分形局部奇异性与空间加权主成分分析这两种地学信息处理方法来识别和提取致矿地球化学异常信息。首先,采用滑动窗口的方法绘制了研究区与银金矿化关系密切的五种地球化学元素Au、Ag、Cu、Pb和Zn的局部奇异性指数图以增强局部弱缓异常信息。然后,在控矿条件分析的基础上,运用北东向断裂构造这一重要控矿要素对Ag-Au成矿作用的影响范围,即距离北东向断裂的距离,作为应变量来构建用于空间加权主成分分析的空间权重系数的计算模型,以此来突显化探样品在控矿地质条件约束下的空间相关性。进而,采用空间加权主成分分析方法来得到Au、Ag、Cu、Pb和Zn多元素奇异性指数值的组合异常(第一主成分因子得分)。结果表明:综合运用多重分形局部奇异性与空间加权主成分分析方法可以有效的识别和提取Ag-Au致矿地球化学异常信息,圈定具有示矿意义的多元素组合异常区。     

Correlations of foliar Δ with K concentration and ash content in sand-fixing plants in the Tengger Desert of China: patterns and implications

In different-aged sand-fixing zones and shifting sand dunes, the seasonal variations of foliar carbon isotope discrimination (Δ), potassium (K) concentration and ash content were investigated in three dominated deserted plants (Artemisia ordosica, Hedysarum scoparium and Caragana korshinskii) during growth season in Shapotou, which is in the southeast margin of the Tengger Desert. The correlations of foliar Δ with foliar K concentration and ash content were examined to evaluate the foliar K and ash content as surrogates of Δ in those deserted plants. Results showed that there were significant effects of plant species, micro-habitation and growth season on foliar Δ, K concentration and ash content. Foliar Δ of C. korshinskii was significantly lower than those of A. ordosica and H. scoparium, and K concentrations in A. ordosica were 2.14 and 2.36 times those of C. korshinskii and H. scoparium. At the same time, micro-habitation and the conditions in growth seasons had significant effects on foliar Δ, K concentration and ash content. Ash content and K concentration were positively correlated to Δ in A. ordosica and H. scoparium, while there was significantly negative relationship between foliar K concentration and Δ in C. korshinskii. Thus, those findings suggest that foliar ash content and K concentration can serve as surrogates of carbon isotope discrimination (Δ) in A. ordosica and H. scoparium, while they do not in C. korshinskii. This result implied that the correlations of foliar Δ with ash content and K concentration were various due to the physiological features of plant species, and species differences should be fully considered when evaluating the surrogates of carbon isotope discrimination in plants.     

South African seismicity, April 1997 to April 1999, and regional variations in the crust and uppermost mantle of the Kaapvaal craton

Events induced by deep gold-mining activity on the edge of the Witwatersrand basin dominate the seismicity of South Africa. The deployment of 54 broad-band seismic stations at 84 separate locations across southern Africa between April 1997 and April 1999 (Kaapvaal network) enabled the seismicity of South Africa to be better defined over a 2-year period. Seismic events located by the South African national network, and by localized seismic networks deployed in mines or across gold-mining areas, were used to evaluate earthquake location procedures and to show that the Kaapvaal network locates mining-induced tremors with an average error of 1.56±0.10 km compared with 9.50±0.36 km for the South African network. Travel times of seismic events from the mines recorded at the Kaapvaal network indicate regional variations in the thickness of the crust but no clearly resolved variations in seismic wavespeeds in the uppermost mantle. Greater average crustal thicknesses (48–50 km compared with 41–43 km) are observed in the northern parts of the Kaapvaal craton that were affected by the Bushveld magmatism at 2.05 Ga. Estimates of average crustal thickness for the southern part of the Kaapvaal craton from receiver functions (38 km) agree well with those from refracted arrivals from mining-induced earthquakes if the crustal thicknesses below the sources are assumed to be 40–43 km. In contrast, the average crustal thickness inferred from refracted arrivals for the northern part of the Kaapvaal craton is larger by about 7 km (51 km) than that inferred from receiver functions (44 km), suggesting a thick mafic lower crust of variable seismic properties due to variations in composition and metamorphic grade. Pn wavespeeds are high (8.3–8.4 km/s), indicating the presence of highly depleted magnesium-rich peridotite throughout the uppermost mantle of the craton. Seismic Pg and Sg phases indicate that the upper crust around the Witwatersrand basin is comparatively uniform in composition when averaged over several kilometres.     

Scaling variables and interpretation of eigenvalues in principal component analysis of geologic data

The dominant feature distinguishing one method of principal components analysis from another is the manner in which the original data are transformed prior to the other computations. The only other distinguishing feature of any importance is whether the eigenvectors of the inner product-moment of the transformed data matrix are taken directly as the Q-mode scores or scaled by the square roots of their associated eigenvalues and called the R-mode loadings. If the eigenvectors are extracted from the product-moment correlation matrix, the variables, in effect, were transformed by column standardization (zero means and unit variances), and the sum of the p-largest eigenvalues divided by the sum of all the eigenvalues indicates the degree to which a model containing pcomponents will account for the total variance in the original data. However, if the data were transformed in any manner other than column standardization, the eigenvalues cannot be used in this manner, but can only be used to determine the degree to which the model will account for the transformed data. Regardless of the type of principal components analysis that is performed—even whether it is Ror Q-mode—the goodness-of-fit of the model to the original data is given better by the eigenvalues of the correlation matrix than by those of the matrix that was actually factored.