Performance-based earthquake early warning

Significant investments are undergoing internationally to develop earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. So far, reasonably, the most of the research in this field was lead by seismologists as the issues to determine essential feasibility of EEW were mainly related to the earthquake source. Many of them have been brilliantly solved, and the principles of this discipline are collected in the so-called real-time seismology. On the other hand, operating EEW systems rely on general-purpose intensity measures as proxies for the impending ground motion potential and are suitable for population alert. In fact, to date, comparatively little attention was given to EEW by earthquake engineering, and design approaches for structure-specific EEW are mostly lacking. Applications to site-specific systems have not been extensively investigated and EEW convenience is not yet proven except a few pioneering cases, although the topic is certainly worthwhile. For example, in structure-specific EEW the determination of appropriate alarm thresholds is important when the false alarm may induce significant losses; similarly, economic appeal with respect to other risk mitigation strategies as seismic upgrade should be assessed. In the paper the least issues to be faced in the design of engineering applications of EEW are reviewed and some work done in this direction is discussed. The review presented intends to summarize the work of the author and co-workers in this field illustrating a possible performance-based approach for the design of structure-specific applications of EEW.     

甘肃预警台网监测能力以及预警时间评估研究

地震事件检测能力在地震观测台站和地震临时观测点的运行中起着重要的作用.在确定网络几何结构下的地震监测台网中,地震监测能力是由监测到的地震事件震级的大小决定的.本文使用了一种完全基于测量噪声统计的SN-CAST方法计算了甘肃预警台网的地震监测能力空间分布,得到甘肃预警台网建立好后将平均监测能力提高到ML 0.8级,监测能力最高处可达到ML 0.2级,目前由44个固定性台站组成的甘肃地震监测台网监测能力为平均监测能力ML 1.7级,监测能力最高处为ML 0.5级,预警台网的建立对整个甘肃台网的监测能力将有较大幅度的提高,根据地震波走时特征分析了甘肃预警台网的空间预警发布时间估测结果,得到地震频发的甘东南和南北地震带地区地震预警时间所用时间较短,在5 s左右,而人口比例偏少地震发生概率偏小的河西走廊和肃北地区预警时间较长,最高为30 s左右,最终计算结果表明预警规划方案基本满足了地震预警设立要求.     

The early Paleozoic carbon cycle

A review of O, C, Sr and S isotope trends for the entire Phanerozoic shows that the present-day values of isotope signals are similar to those at the Proterozoic termination. The sharp rise in ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr since 65 Ma has been attributed to an uplift and subsequent metamorphism and erosion associated with the Himalayas and Tibet. This orogenic evolution has been postulated to have influenced the global organic and inorganic carbon cycles and climate as well. A similar large-scale orogeny, the Pan-African event, also dominated the Neoproterozoic (Vendian) times, and the similarity of modern and Neoproterozoic isotope values for seawater may therefore have had a comparable tectonic cause. In this contribution, we present the results of a numerical model of the coupled C–alkalinity–S–Sr cycles suggesting that the early Paleozoic (from early Cambrian to late Devonian) evolution of Sr, O, C and S seawater isotope signals could have been the consequence of progressive oxidation of a large reduced carbon reservoir exhumed during the Pan-African orogeny. The δ¹⁸O measured in brachiopod shells is used as a forcing of the model, postulating that any change in the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater is the result of a disequilibrium in the organic carbon subcycle through the coupling of the oxygen isotopic and carbon cycles. The calculated δ¹³C, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and δ³⁴S are in good agreement with the data, as is the reasonable calculated history for atmospheric pCO₂ and its relation to global climate.     

地震预报与地震预警

在回顾了地震预报历史沿革的基础上,认为虽然地震预报的难度比较大,但成功地预报地震不是不可能的.地震预警系统已被实践证明是一套有效的避震措施,将在未来的防灾减灾工作中发挥巨大作用,但地震预警并不能代替地震预报.     

Hybrid simulation: An early history

This historical note reports on the early days of the development of an experimental method called “hybrid simulation.” As background, the seeds of this concept, initiated in the early 1970s by Japanese researchers, are presented first, followed by initial efforts (regarded as Stage I) to realize the concept of hybrid simulation and its first applications to explore the seismic performance of structures. The initial research in this now-seminal field of earthquake engineering began in the early 1970s by Koichi Takanashi and his coworkers at the Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo. Their highly notable efforts in laying the groundwork for hybrid simulation occurred in the mid-1970s through the early 1980s by Takanashi (for steel structures) and Tsuneo Okada (for RC structures). These two men and their coworkers first applied hybrid simulation to explore the seismic behavior, performance, and design of various types of building structures. In Stage I, this method was called “the on-line computer-controlled test” or “pseudo dynamic test” because the unique feature of the method was the combined test and simulation and the intentional slow loading in the test. Extension of the scope and application of hybrid simulation occurred largely between the early 1980s and the early 1990s (regarded as Stage II) in conjunction with the United States–Japan joint research project. A few notable efforts made around that period are touched upon briefly, including error propagation and suppression in multi-degree-of-freedom hybrid simulation, application of the substructure methodology to hybrid simulation, and real-time hybrid simulation.     

地震预警的十个问题

地震预警是国内外应用地震学的热点,也是近期公众关心的热门话题.本文就地震预警的一些基本问题、概念、关键技术及其在防震减灾方面的作用等问题做了简要概述,指出了地震预警存在的问题,以及需要研究的方向.首次提出了地震预警系统的确认和解除及地震预警社会容忍度的概念.同时强调地震预警是复杂的社会工程,需要全社会的共同参与.     

地震预警立法问题的探讨

地震预警作为一种防震减灾手段,目前受到我国政府和公众的极大关注。为了实现地震预警的社会效能,必须将其纳入法制化管理。本文首先论述了地震预警立法的必要性和可行性,然后就立法思路展开分析,最后对地震预警的主要立法内容进行了较为详细的阐述。     

Some early descriptions of aurorae in China

Eight accounts from ancient Chinese literature have been found that describe phenomena in contexts and in metaphors that are distinctly auroral. These accounts relate to personages purported to have lived in the third millennium B.C. The historicity of the personages and the actual dates of their lives are still a matter of controversy. Thus the accounts should be considered at a minimum as valuable additions to the inventory of ancient allusions to the aurora. At the other extreme, if taken at face value, they document the occurrence of low-latitude aurorae in the third millennium B.C.     

Geochemistry of early mesozoic tholeiites from Morocco

Mesozoic dolerites from two areas of Morocco, the High Atlas fold belt between Marrakech and Demnat and the Anti-Atlas belt in the area of Foum Zquid, are most high-Ti quartz-normative tholeiites whichi in many respects resemble Mesozoic dolerite dikes from eastern North America. The dolerites display a wide range of major and trace element compositions, some of which are due to fractional crystallization. The doleritic sequences from High Atlas also show vertical stratigraphic zonation which is characterized by a progressive depletion of lithophile elements toward the top. This trend together with regularities of trace element ratio variations are indicative of a dynamic melting of an initially homogeneous source. It is suggested that the continental upper mantle source for dolerites of Morocco was enriched in several incompatible elements in comparison with the upper mantle source for ocean floor tholeiites.     

地震预警震级确定方法研究

地震预警技术是减轻地震灾害损失的有效手段之一．地震预警系统中,地震震级计算是最重要也是最困难的部分之一．利用日本KiK-net台网和四川汶川余震共142次地震事件的记录,分别采用tau;c和Pd方法统计得到了地震预警震级的计算公式,震级计算的方差分别为0.62和0.56个震级单位．为消除震级计算过程中出现的震级饱和现象,作者拓展了Pd方法,提出了一套对位移幅值连续追踪测定的算法．当时间窗长度为10 s时,采用该方法的震级计算方差仅为0.37个震级单位,充分满足地震预警系统的需求．同时,该方法也实现了信息的连续过渡,提高了对现有信息的利用率．最后,还对位移幅值Pd用于地震动峰值PGV的估计以及不同特征参数间的相容性等内容进行了讨论．      

Nucleosynthesis and early chemical evolution in galaxies

Nucleosynthesis and galactic chemical evolution are inter-linked topics that merge various fields in astronomy and physics. Speakers at the RAS discussion meeting of January 2003 combined theory and observation in understanding these fields. Stelios A Tsangarides, Enrico Arnone and Sean G Ryan report.     

用于地震预警的P波震相到时自动拾取

P波震相的自动拾取可用于地震预警中地震事件判别和地震定位,是实现基于地震台网地震预警的首要条件.针对地震预警中P波震相拾取的特点,本文发展了一套基于长短时平均(STA/LTA)和池赤准则(AIC)算法的多步骤P波自动拾取技术,应用Delaunay三角剖分提出了一种非几何相关的干扰信号剔除方法,并应用福建省数字地震台网记录对方法进行了验证,目前方法已经用到了福建省地震预警试验系统中.     

地震预警信息可靠度研究

提出了一种地震预警信息可靠度检验方法. 针对地震预警系统对信息的高度时效性及准确性要求, 并结合其应用特点, 从地震动记录信噪比、 特征参数相容性、 特征参数协调性及地震预警定位结果可靠性等4个方面对地震预警信息的综合可靠度进行探讨, 并分别提出了相应的可靠度定量计算方法. 利用日本KiK-net台网记录的444个地震事件共4737条三分向加速度记录对上述4个指标参数及综合可靠度指标参数的验证结果表明, 采用本方法有助于提高地震预警信息发布的准确性和可靠性, 减少“漏报”及“误报”事件的发生.      

The cooling models of Earth's early mantle

The thermal state of the early Earth’s interior and its way of cooling are crucial for its subsequent evolution. Earth is initially hot as it acquired enormous heat in response to violent processes during its formation, e.g., the Moon-forming giant impact, the segregation and formation of its metallic core, the tidal interaction with the early Moon, and the decay of radioactive elements, etc. In the meantime, the cooling mechanisms of early Earth’s mantle remain elusive despite their importance,...     

地震预警定位方法研究

实时地震定位是地震预警系统中必须解决的关键问题之一.文中在借鉴已有实时地震定位方法的基础上并结合我国台网的实际情况,推导得到一套利用前三/四台P波、S波到时信息进行实时定位的算法.作者选取2000年至2008年问福建省地震监测台网记录到的68个3.0级以上地震对该算法进行验证.研究结果表明,采用文中方法的定位结果具有一...     

Earth and Mars: early thermal profiles

The extent of formation heating for the Earth and Mars has been evaluated assuming that the terrestrial planets accumulated from planetesimals. The main result is that, even if a long accumulation time is assumed (τ ≥ 100 Ma), it is possible to obtain a planetary structure with a large melted shell taking into account the role played by massive projectiles, which, upon reaching depths of several kilometres, are able to deposit heat significantly below the planetary surface. Internal temperatures, sufficient for the downward migration of the liquid iron alloy, have been obtained.     

1998年初北京地区震磁监测

为了加强北京地区地震活动性的监视预报,１９９８年１－２月开展了北京测网与临时台相互配合的地磁加强观测。根据压磁理论与地震应磁效应,应用同步差值,图像演化,快谱幅比等多种方法,分析处理了大量地磁资料,研究了地磁时空变化,探讨了可能存在的震磁前兆消息。