近百余年(1900—2020年)洞庭湖湿地演化驱动因素分析

自20世纪以来,在自然以及人类活动共同作用下,洞庭湖湿地面积与格局发生显著变化。本文在综合大量历史资料、相关文献以及数据的基础上,采用分段线性回归方法将近百余年(1900—2020年)洞庭湖湿地面积与格局变化划分为4个阶段,并重点分析了各阶段影响湿地演化的驱动因子及相互作用关系。1900年以来,洞庭湖湿地面积变化可分为1900—1949年的明显下降期、1950—1978年的快速萎缩期、1979—1998年的稳定期以及1999年至今的略微回升期,湿地景观格局变化经历了新中国成立前的相对稳定阶段、1950s—1990s的水域向洲滩转化阶段以及21世纪以来的洲滩向水域转化阶段。不同时期,由于社会经济与生产力水平的差异,湿地演变的驱动因素存在差异,导致湿地演变的速率与方向有所不同。围湖垦殖与退田还湖是导致湿地面积发生改变的主要因素,气象波动、水库建设、湖区采砂以及河道整治等则通过改变入湖水文泥沙情势影响湿地格局变化,并影响围湖垦殖与退田还湖等活动。为满足经济发展要求,政府在湿地演变中的参与度逐渐增加,对围湖垦殖的态度发生了“鼓励—参与—禁止—还湖”的转变,为近百余年洞庭湖湿地演化的核心驱动要素...     

1980年以来太湖总磷变化特征及其驱动因子分析

磷是湖泊生态系统物质和能量循环的重要组成部分,是湖泊富营养化防治的重要控制性指标.为分析太湖富营养化与人类活动的关系,掌握总磷(TP)的时空变化规律及驱动因子,本文收集整理了1980-2020年太湖TP浓度数据并分析了TP的时序、时空和年内变化特征.结果 表明,1980s经济社会快速发展之初,伴随着工业和三产用水量激增...     

Hydrologic flowpaths during snowmelt in forested headwater catchments under differing winter climatic and soil frost regimes

Changes in hydrologic flowpaths have important impacts on the timing, magnitude and hydrochemistry of run‐off during snowmelt in forested catchments, but how flowpaths are affected by variation in winter climate and the irregular presence of soil frost remains poorly understood. The depth and extent of soil frost may be expected to increase as snowpack decreases or develops later because of climate change. In this study, we used end‐member mixing analysis to determine daily contributions of snow, forest floor soil water and groundwater to stream run‐off during snowmelt under different soil frost regimes resulting from interannual and elevational variation at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. We observed greater routing of run‐off through forest floor flowpaths during early snowmelt in 2011, when the snowpack was deep and soil frost was minimal, compared with the early snowmelt in 2012 under conditions of deep and extensive soil frost. The results indicate that widespread soil frost that penetrated the depth of the forest floor decreased the flow signal through the shallowest subsurface flowpaths, but did not reduce overall infiltration of melt waters, as the contribution from the snow‐precipitation end‐member was similar under both conditions. These results are consistent with development of granular soil frost which permits vertical infiltration of melt waters, but either reduces lateral flow in the forest floor or prevents the solute exchange that would produce the typical chemical signature of shallow subsurface flowpaths in streamwater. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1961—2020年中国区域性高温过程的气候特征及变化趋势

利用全国2419个国家气象观测站长序列日最高气温资料,依据目前国家气候中心业务上采用的区域性高温过程客观判别标准和综合评估模型,对1961—2020年我国区域性高温过程的最早开始和最晚结束日期、发生频次以及过程的持续时间、覆盖范围、高温强度和综合强度等的气候特征和长期变化趋势进行了分析.结果显示：（1）我国区域性高温过程平均每年发生4次,在5月上旬至10月上旬均可出现,主要集中在6月下旬至8月下旬,其中7、8月发生最为频繁.区域性高温过程在年内的首次出现日期平均为6月18日,末次结束日期平均为8月31日.平均每次过程覆盖760站、高温强度36.4℃、持续日数13天.（2）近60年来,我国区域性高温过程在年内的首次出现日期明显提前、末次结束日期显著推后,整个高温期大幅变长;区域性高温过程的发生频次呈先减少后增加变化特征,1990s以后维持高位;区域性高温过程的平均高温强度先减弱后增强,1980—2020年增强趋势显著;区域性高温过程的覆盖范围显著增大、持续时间显著变长、综合强度显著增强.（3）近60年,我国历年区域性高温过程的首次开始时间和末次结束时间,高温期长度及高温过程发生频次等均没有发生气候突变;区域性高温过程的平均高温强度在1987年由弱转强,并在2002年进一步突变增强.同时,区域性高温过程的影响范围、持续时间和综合强度分别在1998、2016和2012年前后突变增加和增强.总体而言,近60年来我国区域性高温过程已发生了显著变化,高温灾害趋于严重.

     

Spatio-temporal carbon isotope variation during the Ediacaran period in South China and its impact on bio-evolution

The Ediacaran period is characterized by the extremely negative carbon isotope anomalies and great biotic evolution in Earth history. At least four negative carbon isotope anomalies have been reported from this interval in South China so far. It is traditionally argued that the isotope variations can be used as a useful tool for global correlation of Ediacaran succession; however, more and more researches argued against this idea. We reviewed the previously published carbon isotope data in South China, and ...     

Radon variation in groundwaters in the Campi Flegrei Caldera (southern Italy) during and after the 1982–1984 bradyseismic crisis

Groundwater Rn concentration has been monitored at several sites in the Campi Flegrei Caldera since the time of the last episode of bradyseismic activity. The results concerning the period 1983–88 indicate that the Rn concentration is spatially variable due to the different chemico-physical characteristics of the waters or structural features. Rn concentration is generally influenced by the long-term changes of meteorological factors. Rainfalls appear to affect the Rn content of the most superficial aquifers. Several short-term spike-like Rn anomalies have been detected both during and after the period of the bradyseismic crisis. They do not show correlation with temporal changes of the pH and/or temperature of waters. A systematic correlation between Rn anomalies and episodic strong rainfall events is also absent. Furthermore, a clear relationship between Rn spikes and both uplift velocity changes and seismic activity has not been found.The overall evidence makes it very difficult to understand the temporal changes of groundwater Rn concentration that have occurred during and after the 1982–84 bradyseismic crisis. Nevertheless, a clear causal relationship between Rn concentration and the dynamics of the bradyseism is observed in some monitored sites. Its appearance may have been favoured by the low Rn concentration in the groundwaters during periods of quiescent activity.     

Estimation of potential changes in the ecosystem of Lake Ladoga in the 21st century under the impact of anthropogenic and climatic factors

The effect of potential climate changes on the ecosystem of Lake Ladoga at different levels of anthropogenic load is studied using mathematical models. The Lake Ladoga year-round circulation corresponding to potential climate changes in the lake catchment area is reproduced. The year-round regime of functioning of the lake ecosystem is reproduced using ecosystem models. The potential changes in the lake ecosystem due to changes in the phosphorus load within the limits observed in 1961–1983 are found to be more essential than those due to prognostic changes in climate.     

基于GRACE/GRACE-FO和Swarm卫星研究2002—2020年南极和格陵兰岛冰盖质量时空变化

两极冰盖消融及其质量变化作为全球气候变化的重要指标之一,一直是联合国政府间专门气候委员会IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)报告的重点关注内容.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment,2002年4月—2017年6月)和GRACE-FO(GRACE Follow-on,2018年5月至今)重力卫星,作为监测两极冰盖质量变化最直接和有效的手段,存在近一年的观测间断期.因此本文提出联合Swarm三颗低轨卫星观测资料(2015年1月—2019年6月)和ARIMA-MC(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model-Monte Carlo)预测方法来填补两组重力卫星间断期两极冰盖消融质量变化观测的时间序列,从而基于完整时间序列来研究两极冰盖质量时空变化规律.研究结果表明：(1)利用Swarm卫星反演得到的时变重力场信号和ARIMA-MC预测方法可以有效填补间断期两极冰盖消融质量变化的时间序列,但两种方法得到的结果也存在一定的差异;(2)在2002年4月—2020年3月期间,GRACE/GRACE-FO探测到南极和格陵兰岛冰盖质量变化速率分别为-119±23 Gt·a^-1和-259±20 Gt·a^-1,等效于全球平均海平面每年约上升0.33 mm和0.72 mm;(3)南极威尔克斯地区在2010—2020年期间的冰盖融化速率较2002—2009年期间增加了10倍,Swarm结果也证实了该地区近年来的加速消融;(4)2019年夏季格陵兰岛冰盖明显的加速消融与夏季北大西洋涛动有关.

     

基于GF-1 WFV的2013—2020年鄱阳湖采砂活动时空动态监测

鄱阳湖是目前我国最大的淡水湖,采砂活动对湖泊水质影响明显,但对采砂活动进行全面的现场监管较为困难.不过,采砂船工作时会明显改变附近水体悬浮泥沙的浓度,这一易于被遥感技术检测到的信息为解决这一问题提供了思路.本研究使用2013—2020年共133景GF-1 WFV影像对鄱阳湖采砂活动进行监测,并总结鄱阳湖采砂活动变化的时、空间规律.结果表明,1)2013年以来,鄱阳湖的年平均采砂船检测数呈先增多后减少的趋势,2016年是采砂活动的顶峰,年平均检测数为9.85艘,2019年后采砂船的年平均检测数锐减至3艘左右,其中监管政策是最主要的影响因素;2)鄱阳湖采砂活动向南湖扩展的趋势在2016年得到了有效的遏制,并在2018年后一直维持在很低的水平;3)在2019年全面禁止采砂后,仍然在松门山岛、星子县及笔架山附近监测到了零星的采砂船作业点.本研究不仅可以评估近年来鄱阳湖采砂活动监管的成效,也能给相似水域采砂活动的监管及其效果评估提供参考.     

Transient response of a beam on viscoelastic foundation under an impact load during nondestructive testing

Beam responses under an impact NDT load are studied using the Fourier and Laplace transforms. Numerical computation is performed for a parametric study of beam and load parameters. It is shown that under an impact load, the time duration for displacement to vanish is ten times longer than that for velocity and acceleration. The maximum response is achieved first in acceleration, followed by velocity, and finally displacement, all of which occur before the impact load is removed. At the moment that the impact load is removed from the beam, there is a discontinuity in the velocity and acceleration responses, but not in displacement response. The effect of K and ph on beam response is much less significant than that of El and C, which have similar effect on beam response. As El increases, peak values of displacement, velocity and acceleration response decrease. The effect of K on beam response only becomes appreciable after the impact load is removed. While the peak of displacement remain almost unchanged as K increases, the displacement response decays to zero faster for large K values than for small K values.     

Spatiotemporal variation of agricultural patterns in different geomorphologic and climatic environments in the eastern Loess Plateau,north-central China during the late Neolithic and Bronze Ages

Science China Earth Sciences - Human settlement and agricultural development are closely linked to local geomorphological and climatic environments. However, the variation in agricultural systems...     

IGRF-11描述的2005-2010年中国地区地磁长期变化及其误差分析

第11代国际地磁参考场(IGRF-11)是国际地磁学与高空物理学联合会(IAGA)于2009年12月提出的最新与比较准确的IGRF.根据IGRF-11模型,计算了2005-2010年中国地区地磁长期变化(SVC).IGRF-11所描述的2005-2010年中国地区地磁长期变化与实际观测的地磁长期变化(SVO)是基本一致的,但亦有明显差异.分析比较了在中国地区34个台站上的SVO与SVC之间的差异,并得到了它们之间的差值及其均方误差σ,对于地磁偏角和倾角,σ分别为0.35′/a与0.53′/a;对于地磁总强度、水平分量、北向分量、东向分量与垂直分量,σ分别为5.12nT/a,8.91nT/a,8.89nT/a,3.27nT/a与3.59nT/a.引起IGRF-11所描述的2005-2010年中国地区地磁长期变化的误差原因是:中国地区的区域性与局部性的磁异常、IGRF忽略了外源场与IGRF模型的截断阶数、全球台站与测点的分布不均匀、地磁观测误差等因素.由于中国地磁模型(CGM)优于IGRF模型,并能比较准确地描述中国地区地磁场及其长期变化,故在实际应用中应选用CGM.     

滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海长期水位变化(1988-2015年)及驱动因子

水位变化影响湖泊水质、水量和生态系统功能,是研究湖泊演变的重要内容,但目前针对滇中高原湖群水位变化特征还少见系统报道.本文选择滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海3个滇中高原湖泊作为研究对象,基于1988-2015年实测水位数据和Mann-Kendall趋势检验法评估了3个湖泊水位变化特征;运用RClimDex模型获得了流域极端降水指标,结合其他指标构建了基于极端气象因子的湖泊水位驱动力指标体系;采用主成分-多元回归模型,解析了极端降水、蒸发等气象因子对滇中高原湖泊水位变化的贡献.结果表明：①滇池、抚仙湖、阳宗海水位年际波动不突出.滇池的年平均水位总体略呈上升趋势,年均上升0.025 m.阳宗海和抚仙湖水位无明显变化.②滇中高原湖泊流域的极端降水指数年际变化趋势不明显.滇池的蒸发量呈明显减小趋势,年均减小21.05 mm.抚仙湖蒸发量呈明显增加趋势,平均每年增加5.52 mm.阳宗海蒸发量的变化不明显.③气象指标可解释滇池水位变化的49.7%,滇池水位变化受气候变化和人类活动的综合影响;阳宗海和抚仙湖水位变化主要受气象条件控制,蒸发量、综合降水指标和连续降水指标对阳宗海水位变化的解释率高达93.3%;综合降水指标和干旱状况指标可以解释抚仙湖水位变化的64.5%.极端降水指标对解释高原湖泊水位变化具有重要作用.     

2001—2018年滇池总磷出入湖通量变化与源汇效应

磷的外源输入与底泥源汇变化是湖泊富营养化形成的重要原因,解析磷出入湖关键过程及其平衡变化对湖泊环境治理具有重要意义。本研究针对滇池外海出入湖磷通量变化问题,融合水文水质观测数据和HBV水文模型模拟数据,使用LOADEST负荷统计模型解析了2001-2018年滇池外海入湖河流、大气沉降和出湖河流的磷通量变化特征,评估了湖体总磷的源汇效应及其影响因素。结果表明:①2001-2018年滇池外海入湖磷通量年际间波动范围大,在118~700 t/a之间,多年平均入湖磷通量为280.61 t/a,其中河流平均输入251.97 t/a,大气沉降平均输入28.64 t/a,在研究的气象水文因子中,入湖磷通量主要影响因素是入湖流量和调水量,其次是降水;②滇池外海年均出湖总磷通量42.25 t/a,在8~84 t/a之间波动,出湖通量变化主要受入湖流量与调水量的影响,其次是气温;③在年和月的时间尺度上,滇池外海均表现为磷的环境汇,多年平均磷滞留量为238.36 t/a,但在部分年份(2009、2018年)逐日尺度上存在源效应。针对滇池外海常年表现磷的环境汇问题,调水工程对降低磷的滞留率有显著作用,但仍无法有效解决磷在湖泊中富集的问题。滇池外海持续的磷汇效应将增加湖泊未来水生态安全风险。     

1956—2020年荆江三口径流变化特征及水库补水效果

荆江三口的分流对于洞庭湖区的水资源、河湖生态系统安全等均具有重要的影响.受到人类活动和气候变化双重影响,荆江三口分流发生显著变化,亟需明确其变化特征及适应性对策.基于实测数据分析了荆江三口径流变化特征,采用数值模拟评估了水库不同下泄方案对推迟荆江三口断流的影响.结果表明:荆江三口年径流量呈递减趋势,2003年以后分流比...     

1990—2018年于桥水库流域氮磷浓度变化趋势及影响因素

基于1990—2018年于桥水库流域入库河流与水库的逐月总氮(TN)和总磷(TP)监测数据,整理并分析了1990-2002、2003—2014和2015—2018年3个时段TN、TP浓度和氮磷比(TN/TP)的时空变化特征,探究流域内点面源污染削减、调水、氮磷滞留等对营养盐浓度变化的影响。结果表明,1990—2018年于桥水库TN浓度年均值在1.14～3.74 mg/L之间,水库TP浓度年均值在0.025～0.131 mg/L之间,多年TN/TP平均值为45,远高于淡水磷限氮磷比,是磷限水库。于桥水库流域5个测点中,沙河TN浓度最高,黎河TP浓度最高,入库TN、TP浓度大于库区,水库TP滞留率略大于TN。水库TN、TP浓度在2000s中后期下降,之后出现反弹。原因是2003年水源保护工程实施后,入库营养物浓度降低;2014年底南水北调中线一期工程通水后,于桥水库的引滦水量减少,TN的稀释效应弱化,上游来水TP浓度上升与水库内夏秋两季浮游植物的增殖,导致第三时段水库内TP浓度上升。基于月尺度水质分析,夏季水库TN浓度最低,TP浓度达到峰值,主成分分析表明,历年6—10月的水库Chl.a浓...     

ENSO signals and their spatial-temporal variation characteristics recorded by the sea-level changes in the northwest Pacific margin during 1965-2005

Sea-level is closely linked to the Earth's climate and its change is important as a metric for global and regional climate change. Identifying, extracting, and revealing such information through detailed analysis is the prerequisite for understanding the mechanisms of sea-level change. The monthlyaverage tide-change records reported and examined in this paper are from 10 tide gauge stations distributed in the northwest margin of the Pacific Ocean, registered during the period 1965-2005. In particular, we ha...     

Assessment of the impact of spatio‐temporal attributes of wetlands on stream flows using a hydrological modelling framework: a theoretical case study of a watershed under temperate climatic conditions

Wetlands play a significant role on the hydrological cycle, reducing flood peaks through water storage functions and sustaining low flows through slow water release ability. However, their impacts on water resources availability and flood control are mainly driven by wetland type (e.g. isolated wetland—IW—and riparian wetland—RW) and location within a watershed. Consequently, assessing the qualitative and quantitative impact of wetlands on hydrological regimes has become a relevant issue for scientists as well as stakeholders and decision‐makers. In this study, the distributed hydrological model, HYDROTEL, was used to investigate the role and impact of the geographic distribution of isolated and RWs on stream flows of the Becancour River watershed of the St Lawrence Lowlands, Quebec, Canada. The model was set up and calibrated using available datasets (i.e. DEM, soil, wetland distribution, climate, land cover, and hydrometeorological data for the 1969–2010 period). Different wetland theoretical location tests (WTLT) were simulated. Results were used to determine whether stream flow parameters, related to peak flows and low flows, were related to: (i) geographic location of wetlands, (ii) typology of wetlands, and (iii) seasonality. The contribution of a particular wetland was assessed using intrinsic characteristics (e.g. surface area, typology) and extrinsic factors (e.g. location in the watershed landscape and seasonality). Through these investigations, the results suggest, to some extent, that both IWs and RWs impact landscape hydrology. The more IWs are located in the upper part of the watershed, the greater their effect on both on high flow damping and low flow support seems to be. The more RWs are connected to a main stream, the greater their effect is. Our modelling results indicate that local landscape conditions may influence the wetland effect; promoting or limiting their efficiency, and thus their impacts on stream flows depend on a combined effect of wetland and landscape attributes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

长江中游城陵矶河段2016-2020年汛期水位非正常波动:影响因子及滤波修正

长江经济带的人口和经济总量均超过全国的40％,长江中游城市群受地理位置与水文条件的综合影响更易遭受洪涝灾害的威胁.莲花塘水位站作为长江中游城陵矶河段蓄滞洪区启用指标控制站,当三峡水库水位达155.0 m后,如莲花塘站水位达到34.40 m并继续上涨,则城陵矶附近区蓄滞洪区需采取分洪措施.然而受河流形态和江湖关系(长江与...     

Paleoceanographical records under impact of the Indian monsoon from the Bengal Deep Sea Fan and Ninetyeast Ridge during the last 260 ka

The orbital and interior climatic cycles can be found both in the Bengal Deep Sea Fan and Ninetyeast Ridge, North Indian Ocean. The periodicity of the Quaternary glacio-eustacy by 100 ka gave a strong impact on the sedimentation in the fan area and the monsoon signals controlled by the obliquity and precession were easily picked up. This paper discusses the possible correlation between the environmental elements on the basis of the ETP phase wheels. A rapid change with short-periods develops during the past 60 ka in the region under study as well. The variability of paleoproductivity has a nonlinear response to the Indian summer monsoon. As contrasted to the Northwest Indian Ocean, here an abundance ofGlobigerina bulloides, a proxy to indicate upwelling current, does not imply so much a promotion of the summer monsoon as its decrease. The record from the ridge area shows in a longer-scale a climatic evolutionary feature corresponding to that of the fan area. A special and great event arising at around 165 kaBP and meaning a catastrophe for ecological environment is reported in this paper. It is also regarded as a result induced by the monsoon.