Fast and slow responses of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent to global warming

Six coupled general circulation models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are employed for examining the full evolution of the North Pacific mode water and Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) under global warming over 400 years following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5. The mode water and STCC first show a sharp weakening trend when the radiative forcing increases, but then reverse to a slow strengthening trend of smaller magnitude after the radiative forcing is stablized. As the radiative forcing increases during the 21st century, the ocean warming is surface-intensified and decreases with depth, strengthening the upper ocean’s stratification and becoming unfavorable for the mode water formation. Moving southward in the subtropical gyre, the shrinking mode water decelerates the STCC to the south. After the radiative forcing is stabilized in the 2070s, the subsequent warming is greater at the subsurface than at the sea surface, destabilizing the upper ocean and becoming favorable for the mode water formation. As a result, the mode water and STCC recover gradually after the radiative forcing is stabilized.     

A modified method to estimate eddy diffusivity in the North Pacific using altimeter eddy statistics

The method proposed by Stammer (1998) is modified using eddy statistics from altimeter observation to obtain more realistic eddy diffusivity (K) for the North Pacific. Compared with original estimates, the modified K has remarkably reduced values in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) and North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) regions, but slightly enhanced values in the Subtropical Counter Current (STCC) region. In strong eastward flow areas like the KE and NECC, owing to a large difference between mean flow velocity and propagation velocity of mesoscale eddies, tracers inside the mesoscale eddies are transported outside rapidly by advection, and mixing length L is hence strongly suppressed. The low eddy probability (P) is also responsible for the reduced K in the NECC area. In the STCC region, however, L is mildly suppressed and P is very high, so K there is enhanced. The zonally-averaged K has two peaks with comparable magnitudes, in the latitude bands of the STCC and KE. In the core of KE, because of the reduced values of P and L, the zonally-averaged K is a minimum. Zonally-integrated eddy heat transport in the KE band, calculated based on the modified K, is much closer to the results of previous independent research, indicating the robustness of our modified K. The map of modified K provides useful informationfor modeling studies in the North Pacific.     

The modeled atmospheric and oceanic response to the South China Sea SST anomaly

The sensitivity of the global atmospheric and oceanic response to sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) throughout the South China Sea (SCS) is investigated using the Fast Ocean-Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Forced by a warming SST, the experiment explicitly demonstrates that the responses of surface air temperature (SAT) and SST exhibit positive anomalous center over SCS and negative anomalous center over the Northern Pacific Ocean (NPO). The atmospheric response to the warm SST anomalies is characterized by a barotropical anomaly in middle-latitude, leading to a weak subtropical high in summer and a weak Aleutian low in winter. Accordingly, Indian monsoon and eastern Asian monsoon strengthen in summer but weaken in winter as a result of wind convergence owing to the warm SST. It is worth noting that the abnormal signals propagate poleward and eastward away in the form of Rossby Waves from the forcing region, which induces high pressure anomaly. Owing to action of the wind-driven circulation, an anomalous anti-cyclonic circulation is induced with a primary southward current in the upper ocean. An obvious cooling appears over the North Pacific, which can be explained by anomalous meridional cold advection and mixing as shown in the analysises of heat budget and other factors that affect SST.     

Variability of subduction rates of the subtropical North Pacific mode waters

The climatology subduction rate for the entire Pacific is known, but the mechanism of interannual to decadal variation remains unclear. In this study, we calculated the annual subduction rates of three types of North Pacific subtropical mode waters using a general circulation model (LICOM1.0) for the period of 1958-2001. The model experiments focused on interannual variations of ocean dynamical processes under daily wind forcings and seasonal heat fluxes. The mode water formation region was defined by a potential vorticity minimum at outcrop locations. The model results show that two subduction rate maxima (>100 m/a) were located in the Subtropical Mode Water (STMW) and the Central Mode Water (CMW) formation regions. These regions are consistent with a climatologically calculated value. The subduction rate in the Eastern Subtropical Mode Water (ESTMW) formation region was smaller at about 75 m/a. The subduction rate shows clear interannual and decadal variations associated with oceanic dynamic variabilities. The average subduction rate of the STMW was much smaller during the period of 1981-1990 compared with other periods, while that of the CMW had a negative anomaly before 1975 and a positive anomaly after 1978. The variability agreed with Ekman and geostrophic advections and mixed layer depths. The interannual variability of the subduction rate for the ESTMW was smallest during 1970-1990, as a result of a weak wind stress curl. This paper explores how interannual signals from the atmosphere are stored in different parts of the ocean, and thus may contribute to a better understanding of feedback mechanisms for the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) event.     

The regional feature of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Tropical West Pacific

The complex empirical orthogonal function is employed to analyse the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Tropical West Pacific (TWP) for the period from 1951 to 1986. The results show that the SSTA in the area appear in three patterns: a quasi-stationary mode, a latitudinally propagating mode and a longitudinally propagating mode. The three modes contribute almost equally to the total variance of SST. Digital filtering, time-lag correlation, etc., are applied to analyse the quasi-period low frequency oscillations of the modes and their relations to the southern oscillation (SO) and the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH). The SSTA in the TWP is different from that in an ocean current area and plays a special role in the large scale air-sea interaction. Aside from being related to the SSTA in the Equatorial East Pacific, the SSTA in the TWP, on the one hand, respond to the oscillation of the global sea level pressure and influence the Subtropical High, and on the other hand receive feedback from the Subtropical High. This paper was published in Chinese inOceanologia et Limnologia Sinica 21 (2): 97–104, 1990.     

Monsoon-ocean coupled modes in the South China Sea and their linkage with the eastern Indian Ocean-western Pacific warm pool

Monsoon-ocean coupled modes in the South China Sea （SCS） were investigated by a combined singular value decomposition （CSVD） analysis based on sea surface temperature （SST） and sea surface wind stress （SWS） fields from SODA （Simple Ocean Data Assimilation） data spanning the period of 1950-1999. The coupled fields achieved the maximum correlation when the SST lagged SWS by one month, indicating that the SCS coupled system mainly reflected the response of the SST to monsoon forcing. Three significant coupled modes were found in the SCS, accounting for more than 80% of the cumulative squared covariance fraction. The first three SST spatial patterns from CSVD were： （Ⅰ） the monopole pattern along the isobaths in the SCS central basin; （Ⅱ） the north-south dipole pattern; and （Ⅲ） the west-east seesaw pattern. The expansion coefficient of the SST leading mode showed interdecadal and interannual variability and correlation with the Indo-Pacific warm pool （IPWP）, suggesting that the SCS belongs to part of the IPWP at interannual and interdecadal time scales. The second mode had a lower correlation coefficient with the warm pool index because its main period was at intra-annual time scales instead of the interannual and interdecadal scales with the warm pools. The third mode had similar periods to those of the leading mode, but lagged the eastern Indian Ocean warm pool （EIWP） and western Pacific warm pool （WPWP） by five months and one year respectively, implying that the SCS response to the warm pool variation occurred from the western Pacific to the eastern Indian Ocean, which might have been related to the variation of Indonesian throughflow. All three modes in the SCS had more significant correlations with the EIWP, which means the SCS SST varied much more coherently with the EIWP than the WPWP, suggesting that the SCS belongs mostly to part of the EIWP. The expansion coefficients of the SCS SST modes all had negative correlations with the Nino3 index, which they lag by several months, indicating a remote response of SCS SST variability to the El Nifio events.     

The South Pacific Subtropical Mode Water in the Tasman Sea

From the synopical CTD sections in the WOCE PR11 repeated cruises, the South Pacific Subtropical Mode Water (SPSTMW) has been identified in the region of the Tasman Front Extension (TFE) around 29?S to the east of Australia. In the depth range of 150-250 m, the SPSTMW appears as a thermostad with vertical temperature gradient lower than 1.6℃(100 m)-1 and a tem- perature range of 16.5-19.5℃ and as a pycnostad with PV lower than 2×10-10 m-1 s-1 and a potential density range of 25.4-26.0 kg m-3. Like the subtropical mode waters in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, the formation of the SPSTMW is associated with the convective mixing during the austral wintertime as manifested from the time series of the Argo floats. And cold water entrains into the mixed layer with the deepening mixed layer from September to the middle of October. During the wintertime formation process, mesoscale eddies prevailing in the TFE region play an important role in the SPSTMW formation, and have a great effect on the SPSTMW distribution in the next year. The deeper (shallower) mixed layer in wintertime, consistent with the depressed (uplifted) permanent thermocline, is formed by the anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddies, and the substantial mode water thicker than 50 m is mainly found in the region of the anticyclonic eddies where the permanent thermocline is deeper than 450 m.     

Relationship between North Pacific SST anomalies and the atmospheric circulation anomalies in January 2008

Based on the NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) data, the relationship between the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTAs) in the North Pacific and the atmospheric circulation anomalies in January 2008 is analyzed in this study. The SSTA mode most correlated with the Geopotential Height anomalies (GHAs) in January 2008 in the North Pacific exhibited a basin-wide horseshoe pattern with a warm center in November 2007. This persistent SSTA pattern would induce positive GHAs in the Aleutian Low area and East Asia and the northward extension of the West Pacific Subtropical High in January 2008 by maximum diabatic heating in the atmosphere over the Kuroshio Oyashio Extension (KOE) area, leading to the occurence of the circumpolar trough-ridge wave train anomaly in January 2008.     

Sea surface height variations in the Mindanao Dome region in response to the northern tropical Pacific winds

Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable to that in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region. Based on a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model, we analyzed SSH variations in this region and their responses to northern tropical Pacific winds. The average SSH anomaly in the region varies mainly on a seasonal scale, with significant periods of 0.5 and 1 year, ENSO time scale2-7years, and time scale in excess of 8 years. Annual and long-term variabilities are comparably stronger. These variations are essentially a response to the northern tropical Pacific winds. On seasonal and ENSO time scales, they are mainly caused by wind anomalies east of the region, which generate westward-propagating, long Rossby waves. On time scales longer than 8 years, they are mostly induced by local Ekman pumping. Long-term SSH variations in the MD region and their responses to local winds are examined and discussed for the first time .     

Impact of climatic change on sea surface temperature variation in Subei coastal waters,East China

Sea surface temperature （SST） variation in the Subei coastal waters, East China, which is important for the ecological environment of the Yellow Sea where Enteromorphaprolifera blooms frequently, is affected by the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）, El Nifio-Southem Oscillation （ENSO）, and Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. In this study, correlations between climatic events and SST anomalies （SSTA） around the Subei （North Jiangsu Province, East China） Coast from 1981-2012 are analyzed, using empirical orthogonal function （EOF） and correlation analyses. First, a key region was determined by EOF analysis to represent the Subei coastal waters. Then, coherency analyses were performed on this key region. According to the correlation analysis, the EAWM index has a positive correlation with the spring and summer SSTA of the key region. Furthermore, the Nifio3.4 index is negatively correlated with the spring and summer SSTA of the key region 1 year ahead, and the PDO has significant negative coherency with spring SSTA and negative coherency with summer SSTA in the key region 1 year ahead. Overall, PDO exhibits the most significant impact on SSTA of the key region. In the key region, all these factors are correlated more significantly with SSTA in spring than in summer. This suggests that outbreaks ofEnteromorpha prolifera in the Yellow Sea are affected by global climatic changes, especially the PDO.     

Remote forcing of Indian Ocean warming on Northwest Pacific during El Niño decaying years: a FOAM model approach

This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific (NWP) during the year of decaying El Niño. Observation data and the Fast Ocean-Atmosphere coupled Model 1.5 were used to investigate the triggering conditions under which the remote influence is formed between the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the North Indian Ocean and the Anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone (ANWPA). Our research show that it is only when there is a contributory background wind field over the Indian Ocean, i.e., when the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) reaches its peak, that the warmer SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean incites significant easterly wind anomalies in the lower atmosphere of the Indo-West tropical Pacific. This then produces the remote influence on the ANWPA. Therefore, the SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean might interfere with the prediction of the East Asia Summer Monsoon in the year of decaying El Niño. Both the sustaining effect of local negative SST anomalies in the NWP, and the remote effect of positive SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean on the ANWPA, should be considered in further research.     

Movements of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Centroid and Their Relationship to Sea Surface Temperature Changes in Ni(n)o Regions

By using monthly historical sea surface temperature (SST) data for the years from 1950 to 2000, the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) climatology and anomalies are studied in this paper. The analysis of WPWP centroid (WPWPC) movement anomalies and the Nino-3 region SST anomalies( SSTA) seems to reveal a close, linear relation between the zonal WPWPC and Nino-3 region SSTA, which suggests that a 9' anomaly of the zonal displacement from the climatological position of the WPWPC corresponds to about a 1 ℃ anomaly in the Nino-3 region area-mean SST. This study connects the WPWPC zonal displacement with the Nino-3 SSTA, and it may be helpful in better understanding the fact that the WPWP eastward extension is conducive to the Nino-3 region SST increase during an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.     

Influences of two types of El Ni?o event on the Northwest Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies

Based on the Had ISST1 and NCEP datasets,we investigated the influences of the central Pacific El Ni?o event(CP-EL)and eastern Pacific El Ni?o event(EP-EL)on the Sea Surface Temperature(SST)anomalies of the Tropical Indian Ocean.Considering the remote ef fect of Indian Ocean warming,we also discussed the anticyclone anomalies over the Northwest Pacific,which is very important for the South China precipitation and East Asian climate.Results show that during the El Ni?o developing year of EP-EL,cold SST anomalies appear and intensify in the east of tropical Indian Ocean.At the end of that autumn,all the cold SST anomaly events lead to the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD)events.Basin uniform warm SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean in the whole summer of EL decaying year for both CP-and EP-ELs.However,considering the statistical significance,more significant warm SST anomalies only appear in the North Indian Ocean among the June and August of EP-EL decaying year.For further research,EP-EL accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming(EPI-EL)and CP El Ni?o accompany with Indian Ocean Basin Warming(CPI-EL)events are classified.With the remote ef fects of Indian Ocean SST anomalies,the EPI-and CPI-ELs contribute quite differently to the Northwest Pacific.For the EPI-EL developing year,large-scale warm SST anomalies arise in the North Indian Ocean in May,and persist to the autumn of the El Ni?o decaying year.However,for the CPI-EL,weak warm SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean maintain to the El Ni?o decaying spring.Because of these different SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean,distinct zonal SST gradient,atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies emerge over the Northwest Pacific in the El Ni?o decaying years.Specifically,the large-scale North Indian Ocean warm SST anomalies during the EPI-EL decaying years,can persist to summer and force anomalous updrafts and rainfall over the North Indian Ocean.The atmospheric heating caused by this precipitation anomaly emulates atmospheric Kelvin waves accompanied by low level easterly anomalies over the Northwest Pacific.As a result,a zonal SST gradient with a warm anomaly in the west and a cold anomaly in the east of Northwest Pacific is generated locally.Furthermore,the atmospheric anticyclone and precipitation anomalies over the Northwest Pacific are strengthened again in the decaying summer of EPI-EL.Af fected by the local WindEvaporation-SST(WES)positive feedback,the suppressed East Asian summer rainfall then persists to the late autumn during EPI-EL decaying year,which is much longer than that of CPI-EL.     

Movements of the Western Pacific Warm Pool Centroid and Their Relationship to Sea Surface Temperature Changes in Nifio Regions

By using monthly historical sea surface temperature (SST) data for the years from 1950 to 2000, the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP) climatology and anomalies are studied in this paper. The analysis of WPWP centroid (WPWPC) movement anomalies and the Niño-3 region SST anomalies(SSTA) seems to reveal a close, linear relation between the zonal WPWPC and Niño-3 region SSTA, which suggests that a 9° anomaly of the zonal displacement from the climatological position of the WPWPC corresponds to about a l°C anomaly in the Niño-3 region area-mean SST. This study connects the WPWPC zonal displacement with the Niño-3 SSTA, and it may be helpful in better understanding the fact that the WPWP eastward extension is conducive to the Niño-3 region SST increase during an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.     

A Review of Interaction Between Neon Flying Squid (Ommastrephes bartramii) and Oceanographic Variability in the North Pacific Ocean

The neon flying squid(Ommastrephes bartramii) is a short-lived opportunistic species widely distributed in subtropical and temperate waters in the North Pacific Ocean. The life cycle of O. bartramii from planktonic eggs to nektonic adults is closely linked to oceanographic conditions. The fluctuations in O. bartramii abundance and distribution tend to increase and widen continuously due to the heavy influences of ocean-climate events on various spatio-temporal scales. In this study, we reviewed the interaction between O. bartramii and oceanography variability in the North Pacific with respect to large-scale climatic-oceanic phenomena including El Ni?o, La Ni?a, Kuroshio, Oyashio and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO), as well as regional environmental variables such as sea surface temperature(SST), sea surface height(SSH), sea surface salinity(SSS), chlorophyll-a(Chl-a) concentration, and plankton density. The population dynamics of O. bartramii is mediated mainly by meso- and large-scale climatic-oceanic events(e.g., Kuroshio and Oyashio Currents) rather than other local environmental conditions(e.g., SST and Chl-a concentration), because all of the oceanographic influences are imposed on the context of large-scale climate changes(e.g., PDO). An unstructured-grid finitevolume coastal ocean model coupled with an individual-based model is proposed to simulate relevant physical-biological oceanographic processes for identifying ocean-climate influence and predicting O. bartramii distribution and abundance in the North Pacific. Future research needs to be focused on improving the knowledge about early life history of O. bartramii and evaluating the relationship between marine physical environment and two separate passive drifting life stages of O. bartramii including free-floating eggs and planktonic paralarvae.     

Surface thermal centroid anomaly of the eastern equatorial Pacific as a unified Niño index

By analyzing the variability of global SST(sea surface temperature) anomalies,we propose a unified Ni o index using the surface thermal centroid anomaly of the region along the Pacific equator embraced by the 0.7°C contour line of the standard deviation of the SST anomalies and try to unify the traditional Ni o regions into a single entity.The unified Ni o region covers almost all of the traditional Ni o regions.The anomaly time series of the averaged SST over this region are closely correlated to historical Ni o indices.The anomaly time series of the zonal and meridional thermal centroid have close correlation with historical TNI(Trans-Ni o index) indices,showing differences among El Ni o(La Ni a) events.The meridional centroid anomaly suggests that areas of maximum temperature anomaly are moving meridionally(although slightly) with synchronous zonal movement.The zonal centroid anomalies of the unified Ni o region are found helpful in the classification of the Eastern Pacific(EP)/Central Pacific(CP) types of El Ni o events.More importantly,the zonal centroid anomaly shows that warm areas might move during a single warming/cooling phase.All the current Ni o indices can be well represented by a simple linear combination of unified Ni o indices,which suggests that the thermal anomaly(SSTA) and thermal centroid location anomaly of the unified Ni o region would yield a more complete image of each El Ni o/ La Ni a event.     

20世纪80年代初以来北太平洋海温变化特征

应用1979.1-2006.12北太平洋海表温度（SST）资料,采用一元线性回归、功率谱等统计方法对该区SST的变化特征进行分析,结果表明：（1）北太平洋SST年际变化较为显著,尤其在靠近亚洲大陆一带洋面、北太平洋中部中纬度海域及赤道中、东太平洋;（2）北太平洋西部和中部SST1-12月均呈上升趋势,靠近亚洲大陆的日本海一带和我国大陆以东洋面升温最快。除我国以东洋面升温中心在冬季外,其余海域升温均在夏秋季更迅速,20世纪90年代初以来尤为明显;北美海岸山脉以西及赤道中、东太平洋SST则呈弱的下降趋势;（3）赤道中、东太平洋春夏季存在显著5a和3.5a左右的年际变化;北太平洋中部30°N一带冬春季存在5-6a左右的年际变化和约14a的年代际变化;（4）除北太平洋中部（西风漂流区）外,各个海域大部分月份SST高值年和低值年分别与厄尔尼诺年和拉尼娜年对应,西风漂流区SST高值年均出现在20世纪末21世纪初,低值年与厄尔尼诺年对应。     

2006年北太平洋柔鱼作业渔场时空变化及其与表温的关系

<正>柔鱼(Ommastrephes bartramii)广泛分布在北太平洋,20世纪70年代初首先由日本鱿钓船开发,我国大陆于1993年开始利用该资源,1994年进行较大规模地商业性生产。目前北太平洋鱿钓渔业已成为我国远洋渔业的支柱[1]。据估计,历史上北太平洋柔     

Circulation and Heat Flux along the Western Boundary of the North Pacific

On the basis of the conductivity temperature depth(CTD)observation data off the coast of the Philippines(7.5°–18°N,130°E–the east coast of the Philippines)in the fall of 2005,the water mass distribution,geostrophic flow field,and heat budget are examined.Four water masses are present:the North Pacific Tropical Surface Water,the North Pacific Sub-surface Water,the North Pacific Intermediate Water,and the Antarctic Intermediate Water(AAIW).The previous three corresponded with the North Equatorial Current(NEC),the Kuroshio Current(KC),and the Mindanao Current(MC),respectively.AAIW is the source of the Mindanao Undercurrent.The mass transport of NEC,KC,and MC is 58.7,15,and 27.95Sv,respectively(relative to 1500db).NEC can be balanced by the transport across the whole transect 18°N(31.81 Sv)and 7.5°N(26.11 Sv)but not simply by KC and MC.Direct calculation is used to study the heat flux.In sum,1.45PW heat is transported outwards the observed region,which is much more than that released from the ocean to the air at the surface(0.05PW).The net heat lost decreased the water temperature by 0.75℃each month on average,and the trend agreed well with the SST change.Vertically,the heat transported by the currents is mainly completed in the upper 500 m.     

Interannual variability of transport and bifurcation of the North Equatorial Current in the tropical North Pacific Ocean

The relationship of the interannual variability of the transport and bifurcation latitude of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) to the El Ni o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated. This is done through composite analysis of sea surface height (SSH) observed by satellite altimeter during October 1992-July 2009, and correspondingly derived sea surface geostrophic currents. During El Nio/La Ni a years, the SSH in the tropical North Pacific Ocean falls/rises, with maximum changes in the region 0-15°N, 130°E-160°E. The decrease/increase in SSH induces a cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the western tropical gyre. The cyclonic/anticyclonic anomaly in the gyre results in an increase/decrease of NEC transport, and a northward/southward shift of the NEC bifurcation latitude near the Philippine coast. The variations are mainly in response to anomalous wind forcing in the west-central tropical North Pacific Ocean, related to ENSO events.