Predictive model of Arias intensity and Newmark displacement for regional scale evaluation of earthquake-induced landslide hazard in Greece

Defining the possible scenario of earthquake-induced landslides, Arias intensity is frequently used as a shaking parameter, being considered the most suitable for characterising earthquake impact, while Newmark׳s sliding-block model is widely used to predict the performance of natural slopes during earthquake shaking. In the present study we aim at providing tools for the assessment of the hazard related to earthquake-induced landslides at regional scale, by means of new empirical equations for the prediction of Arias intensity along with an empirical estimator of coseismic landslide displacements based on Newmark׳s model. The regression data, consisting of 205 strong motion recordings relative to 98 earthquakes, were subdivided into a training dataset, used to calculate equation parameters, and a validation dataset, used to compare the prediction performance among different possible functional forms and with equations derived from previous studies carried out for other regions using global and/or regional datasets. Equations predicting Arias intensities expected in Greece at known distances from seismic sources of defined magnitude proved to provide more accurate estimates if site condition and focal mechanism influence can be taken into account. Concerning the empirical estimator of Newmark displacements, we conducted rigorous Newmark analysis on 267 one-component records yielding a dataset containing 507 Newmark displacements, with the aim of developing a regression equation that is more suitable and effective for the seismotectonic environment of Greece and could be used for regional-scale seismic landslide hazard mapping. The regression analysis showed a noticeable higher goodness of fit of the proposed relations compared to formulas derived from worldwide data, suggesting a significant improvement of the empirical relation effectiveness from the use of a regionally-specific strong-motion dataset.     

Attenuation relations of Arias intensity based on the Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake data

This paper presents a derivation of attenuation relations of Arias intensity for various site conditions based on the strong-motion data recorded in the 1999 Chi-Chi Taiwan earthquake. The data are from the mainshock and three large aftershocks with stations in the footwall area and in the area away from the fault. At each station, Arias intensity is computed from two horizontal acceleration time histories. The Arias intensity data are separated into four groups according to site classes assigned to recording stations. For each site class, the attenuation relation of Arias intensity is derived using a two-step regression analysis method. The attenuation relations established in this study can be used to estimate Arias intensity from a rupture of a thrust fault for sites in the footwall area or in the area away from the fault.     

New predictive equations for Arias intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand

Arias Intensity (Arias, MIT Press, Cambridge MA, pp 438–483, 1970) is an important measure of the strength of a ground motion, as it is able to simultaneously reflect multiple characteristics of the motion in question. Recently, the effectiveness of Arias Intensity as a predictor of the likelihood of damage to short-period structures has been demonstrated, reinforcing the utility of Arias Intensity for use in both structural and geotechnical applications. In light of this utility, Arias Intensity has begun to be considered as a ground-motion measure suitable for use in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and earthquake loss estimation. It is therefore timely to develop predictive equations for this ground-motion measure. In this study, a suite of four predictive equations, each using a different functional form, is derived for the prediction of Arias Intensity from crustal earthquakes in New Zealand. The provision of a suite of models is included to allow for epistemic uncertainty to be considered within a PSHA framework. Coefficients are presented for four different horizontal-component definitions for each of the four models. The ground-motion dataset for which the equations are derived include records from New Zealand crustal earthquakes as well as near-field records from worldwide crustal earthquakes. The predictive equations may be used to estimate Arias Intensity for moment magnitudes between 5.1 and 7.5 and for distances (both r_jb and r_rup) up to 300 km.     

Time probabilistic evaluation of seismically induced landslide hazard in Irpinia (Southern Italy)

A recently proposed method, which incorporates the Newmark model to evaluate the earthquake-induced landslide hazard at regional scale, was applied to Irpinia, one of the most seismically active regions of Italy. The method adopts a probabilistic approach to calculate values of critical acceleration a_c representing the minimum strength required for a slope not to fail at a fixed probability level in a given time interval. Regional probabilistic hazard maps were generated for the two failure types most common in Irpinia (slump–earthflows and rock falls). The results suggest that quite moderate critical acceleration (0.05–0.08 g) could suffice to keep the slope failure probability low. However, the available data indicate that potential slide surfaces with a_c below these values could be common in Irpinia, where, perhaps in relation to particular geo-environmental conditions, a relative large number of marginally stable slopes might survive other destabilising actions and fail even on occasion of not particularly strong earthquake shaking.     

胶东地区地震烈度衰减关系

使用胶东及邻区地震数据,对于发生在基岩出露区的18次地震的30条可靠等震线,利用最小二乘法,拟合胶东地区地震烈度衰减关系公式。与华北地区地震烈度衰减关系进行比较,发现胶东地区地震烈度衰减较慢。胶东地区地震烈度衰减关系的建立,可以辅助制定相关应急预案和震后快速评估。     

A predictive model for Arias intensity at multiple sites and consideration of spatial correlations

Arias intensity, I_a, has been identified as an efficient intensity measure for the estimation of earthquake‐induced losses. In this paper, a new model for the prediction of Arias intensity, which incorporates nonlinear site response through the use of the average shear‐wave velocity and a heteroskedastic variance structure, is proposed. In order to estimate the effects of ground motions on spatially‐distributed systems, it is important to take into account the spatial correlation of the intensity measure. However, existing loss‐estimation models, which use I_a as an input, do not take this aspect of the ground motion into account. Therefore, the potential to model the spatial correlation of Arias intensity is also investigated. The empirical predictive model is developed using recordings from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Next Generation of Attenuation database whereas the model for spatial correlation makes use of the well‐recorded events from this database, that is the Northridge and Chi‐Chi earthquakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The depth of seismicity in the Kermanshah region of the Zagros Mountains (Iran)

A detailed microearthquake survey in a small region of the Zagros Mountains in Iran failed to detect any shocks whose depths were greater than 20 km. One third of the shocks in the same area have depths greater than 50 km when located using teleseismic observations. Because of poor azimuthal coverage and lack of local stations these teleseismic locations are probably in error. There is therefore no reliable seismic evidence for the existence of oceanic lithosphere beneath the Zagros fold belt.     

新疆地震烈度衰减关系模型参数拟合

By using the existing historical earthquake investigation data in Xinjiang,this paper obtained the envelope curves of isoseismal maps of 103 destructive earthquakes occurring from 1716 to 2010 after digitization of the data. The author summarized the seismic intensity attenuation laws in the Xinjiang region with the multiple regression fitting method. The intensity attenuation function of the elliptical model was provided and the fitting results in different periods and areas were compared. Finally, the intensity attenuation relationship in the Xinjiang region was obtained by the method of constraining the start and end of the attenuation curves.     

华南地区地震烈度衰减模型的建立

利用20世纪华南地区的48次中强地震事件的96条等震线数据,拟合了该地区地震烈度衰减关系。与以往的地震烈度衰减关系相比,在计算中强地震烈度时,精度上得到了相应的提高。充分反映了华南地区地震震级小,烈度相对高的特点。     

Probabilistic PGA and Arias Intensity maps of Kyrgyzstan (Central Asia)

New probabilistic seismic hazard and Arias Intensity maps have beendeveloped for the territory of the Kyrgyz Republic and bordering regions.Data were mainly taken from the seismic catalogue of Kyrgyzstan and partlyfrom the world seismic catalogue. On the base of seismicity and activetectonics, seismic zones were outlined over the area. For these,Gutenberg-Richter laws were defined using mainly instrumental data, butregarding also historical events. Attenuation of acceleration inside the targetarea could not be determined experimentally since existing strong motiondata are insufficient. Therefore, empirical laws defined for other territories,principally Europe and China, were applied to the present hazardcomputations. Final maps were calculated with the SEISRISKIII programaccording to EUROCODE8 criteria, i.e. for a period of 50 years with90% probability of non-exceedance. For long-term prediction, 100 yearsmaps with 90% probability of non-exceedance have been developed. Theprocedure used for seismic hazard prediction in terms of PGA (PeakGround Acceleration) was also applied to Arias intensities in order to beable to define regional seismogenic landslide hazard maps.     

中国东部烈度衰减关系模型研究

本文收集了1990—2021年我国东部地区180次地震等震线数据,采用长、短轴椭圆模型,应用Levenberg-Marquardt法和最小二乘法重新拟合了东部地区的分区地震烈度衰减关系。结果表明,两种回归模型结果保持较好的一致性,在2个分区统计单元内(东北、华北地区与华中、华南地区)地震烈度衰减关系有明显不同,故而应进行不同的分区对待。同时,在我国东部地区,通过与其他学者的地震烈度衰减关系研究成果进行对比,显示本文两种方法的结果可较好地反映烈度衰减的区域特征。选取吉林宁江M5.7、湖北巴东M5.1地震和河北唐山M7.8地震的长、短轴及面积进行计算,通过对比结果可以看出,本文烈度衰减关系计算的结果较同一区域或大区域的计算结果更精准,说明本文结果能反映出东部地区地震震级小而破坏大的特征,适合用于该地区的工程地震研究和应用。本文给出的我国东部地区分区地震烈度衰减关系适用震级范围为面波震级3.0～8.0,距离为0～660km。     

核电厂地震安全性评价衰减关系影响分析

地震危险性分析中的不确定性处理和表征,一直是核电厂厂址地震安全性评价中倍受关注的重要问题,尤其是日本福岛核事故后,无论是确定核电厂厂址的设计基准地震动,还是进行核电厂地震风险评价,都更加重视地震危险性分析中的不确定性.本文通过理论分析重点说明了衰减关系的不确定性,包括标准差和截断水平对核电厂地震安全性评价的影响,并在此基础上,通过算例和讨论说明了概率性方法截断水平的选取问题,探讨了现行确定性方法和概率性方法在截断水平选取上的差异.分析计算结果表明,在地震活动较弱的区域,概率性方法截断水平为3,确定性方法截断水平为0的现行做法是恰当的.但是,对于发震构造大震复发间隔较小的区域,为了使二者在超越概率方面协调,恰当提高确定性方法的截断水平更为合理.     

浙江及邻区地震烈度衰减关系研究

浙江省及其周边的历史震例资料稀少,其地震烈度衰减关系一直沿用中国东部地区的地震烈度衰减关系模型。本文采用椭圆模型,利用浙江及邻区历史地震的震害资料,建立了浙江及邻区天然地震烈度衰减公式。根据东南沿海地区水库地震多发的特点,收集整理了水库地震相关震例数据,建立了浙江及邻区水库地震烈度衰减公式。最后,将本文拟合结果与其他学者拟合出的衰减模型通过实际震例进行了对比,并进行了相关讨论。     

安徽及近邻区地震烈度衰减特征研究

利用安徽及近邻区地震烈度资料,采用椭圆衰减模型和长轴可转向与近、远场补点方法,通过多元回归方法进行拟合,建立该地区地震烈度衰减关系。该衰减关系用于安徽地震应急指挥技术系统震害快速评估模块,为地震灾害损失快速评估提供基础资料;也可用于安徽地区地震安全性评价、震害预测等防震减灾领域。     

Attenuation of body waves in Southeastern Sicily (Italy)

The attenuation of P- and S-waves in Southeastern Sicily was estimated by applying two different methods in time and frequency domains. We analyzed waveforms from about 290 local events (0.6≤M_L≤4.6) recorded at a three-component digital network.By applying the pulse broadening method to the first P-wave pulse, we found an average Q_p value of ca. 140. The application of the frequency decay method provided a Q_p value of ca. 120, in the low-frequency band (3-9 Hz). Conversely, in the high frequency range (16-27 Hz) the average Q_p is significantly larger (ca. 640). The frequency decay method was also applied to S-waves spectra. In the low frequency range (2-5 Hz) the estimated average Q_s is ca. 190. As for Q_p, also Q_s, in the high frequency range (16-27 Hz), is larger (ca. 700). These results evidenced a frequency dependence of both the quality factors Q_p and Q_s, as commonly observed in tectonically active zones characterized by high degree of heterogeneity.     

为新区划图编制所建立的地震动衰减关系

介绍了建立新一代地震区划图所采用的地震动参数衰减关系的总体思路,并从资料、衰减关系分区、衰减关系模型、回归方法、转换等方面说明了地震动参数衰减关系的建立过程,给出了我国分区地震烈度和地震动参数衰减关系结果。新的地震动衰减关系的建立,具有如下特点:一是基于更加丰富可靠的强震记录和烈度资料;二是采用了具有大震近场饱和特征的地震动衰减模型;三是采用了使结果更加稳定的分步回归方法;四是在地震动衰减关系分区时考虑了地震活动性特征。与第四代地震区划图衰减关系相比,由于地震动衰减模型的变化和高震级强震记录的增加,高震级下的峰值加速度有所降低,而中强地震区的峰值加速度则在低震级时有所提高。     

Attenuation tomography of the Southern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this study is to improve our knowledge of the attenuation structure in the Southern Apennines using a new amplitude ratio tomography method (Phillips et al., Geophys Res Lett 32(21):L21301, 2005) applied on both direct and coda envelope measurements derived from 150 events recorded by 47 stations of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia National Seismic Network (Rete Sismica Nazionale Centralizzata). The two-dimensional (2-D) analysis allows us to take into account lateral crustal variations and heterogeneities of this region. Using the same event and station distribution, we also applied a simple 1-D methodology, and the performance of the 1-D and 2-D path assumptions is tested by comparing the average interstation variance for the path-corrected amplitudes using coda and direct waves. In general, coda measurement results are more stable than using direct waves when the same methodology is applied. Using the 2-D approach, we observe more stable results for both waves. However, the improvement is quite small, probably because the crustal heterogeneity is weak. This means that, for this region, the 1-D path assumption is a good approximation of the attenuation characteristics of the region. A comparison between Q tomography images obtained using direct and coda amplitudes shows similar results, consistent with the geology of the region. In fact, we observe low Q along the Apennine chain toward the Tyrrhenian Sea and higher values to the east, in correspondence with the Gargano zone that is related to the Apulia Carbonate Platform. Finally, we compared our results with the coda Q values proposed by Bianco et al. (Geophys J Int 150:10–22, 2002) for the same region. The good agreement validates our results as the authors used a completely independent methodology.     

用于核工程地震安全性评价的中小地震水平向加速度反应谱衰减关系研究

利用美国西部的中小地震记录对基岩场地条件下的中小地震水平向地震动多阻尼加速度反应谱的衰减关系进行了初步研究,并分析了震级与距离对中小地震水平向地震动加速度反应谱衰减规律的影响.     

基于衰减关系的城镇烈度发生概率快速估计

震后快速产出的震动烈度分布是地震应急救援非常有效的依据, 通常由烈度与地震动参数的经验关系给出. 有台站的场点, 地震动参数可以直接由台站数据给出确定性的结果; 而无台站的场点, 地震动参数只能由衰减关系给出估计值. 目前我国台站覆盖有限, 且难于实时获取, 快速生成的地震动参数主要依赖于地震动衰减关系, 再依据烈度与地震动参数的经验关系, 输出确定性的震动烈度分布. 由于衰减关系本身存在着不确定性, 将其估计值用于生成确定性的震动烈度分布是不准确的. 而且实践证明, 震动烈度与实际调查烈度存在差异. 鉴于此, 从衰减关系模型中的ε出发, 提出了场点(城镇)遭遇不同烈度的概率计算方法: 利用衰减关系的估计值与衰减关系的标准差, 构造峰值加速度(PGA)变化的对数正态分布, 然后以烈度分档对应的PGA范围, 计算震区各城镇遭遇不同烈度的概率及各城镇抗震设防烈度被超越的概率. 具体以1966年3月8日河北邢台M_S6.8地震为例, 说明了此方法的可行性, 认为以概率形式给出城镇可能遭遇的烈度在表述上更为合理, 并建议将场点(城镇)遭遇烈度的概率表达方法用于震害快速评估.     

鲁甸 MS6.5级地震强震动记录及震害分析

2014年8月3日发生的鲁甸地震是我国继2013年芦山地震之后的又一次破坏性浅源地震,造成了严重的人员伤亡和工程结构破坏.本文处理了我国数字强震动台网捕获的60余组主震三分量强震动记录,绘制了震中附近区域的峰值加速度等值线图,长轴沿西北-东南方向展布.通过与中国西部常用衰减关系的对比,发现各模型的预测值均不同程度高估了峰值加速度、峰值速度的观测值.最后以水平向峰值加速度较大的三个典型台站为例,详细调查了附近建筑的破坏情况,结合宏观烈度分布结果,分析了地震动特征与震害的相关性.