Seismic Observations and Seismic Hazard Studies in the Philippines

It has taken more than a hundred years for seismic observations in the Philippines to evolve to a modern observation system.The responsibility of seismic observations was likewise transfeered from one agency to another during this same period of time.At present,the mandate of conducting seismic observatins in the Philippines rests with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology(PHIVOLCS),In 2000,through a grant aid from the Japan International Cooperation Agency(JICA),the Philippine Seismic netowrk was upgraded to a digital system.As a result,a new set of seismic monitoring equipments was installed in all of the 34 PHIVOLCS seismic stations all over the country,Digital waveforms are now available for high level seismic data processing.and data acquisition and processing are now automated.Included in the upgrade is the provision of strong motion accelerographs in all stations whose data can now be used for studying ground motion and intensity attenuation relations,The new setup is now producing high-resolution data that can now be used for conducting basic seismological researches,Earthquake locations have now improved allowing for the modeling and delineation of earthquake source regions necessary for earthquake hazard studies.Current seismic hazard studies in the Philippines involve the estimation of ground motion using both probabilitstic and deterministic approaches,seismic microzonation studies of key cities using microtremor observations,paleoseismology and active faults mapping ,and identification of liquefaction-prone,landslide-prone nd tsunami-affected areas.The earthquake database is now being reviewed and completed with the addition of historical events and from data from regional databases,While studies of seismic hazards were primarily concentrated on a regional level ,PHIVOLCS is now focusing on doing these seismic hazard studies on a micriolevel.For Metro Manila,first generation hazard maps showing ground rupture,ground shaking and liquefaction hazards have recently been completed.Other large cities that are also at risk from large earthquakes are the next targets.The elements at risk such as population,lifelines,and vertical and horizontal structures for each of these urban centers are also being incorporated in the hazard maps for immediate use of planners,civil defense officials,policy-makers and engineers.The maps can also now be used to describe possible scenarios during times of strong events and how appropriate socio-economic and engineering responses could be designed.In addition,a rapid earthquake damage assessment system has been started which will attempt to produce immediate or rapid assessments identification of elements at risk durin times of strong earthquakes     

Detailed gravity survey to help seismic microzonation: Mapping the thickness of unconsolidated deposits in Ottawa, Canada

In this study, measurements of gravity were made to map and model the thickness of Quaternary deposits (sand and clay) overlying Ordovician limestones in a suburb of Ottawa (Orléans, Ontario). Because ground motion amplification is partly related to the thickness of unconsolidated deposits, this work helps refine the assessment of the earthquake damage potential of the area. It also helps the mapping of clay basins, which can locally exceed 100 m in thickness, where ground motion amplification can occur. Previous work, including well log data and seismic methods, have yielded a wealth of information on near-surface geology in Orléans, thereby providing the necessary constraints to test the applicability of gravity modeling in other locations where other methods cannot always be used. Some 104 gravity stations were occupied in an 8 × 12 km test area in the Orléans. Stations were accurately located with differential GPS that provided centimetric accuracy in elevation. Densities of the unconsolidated Quaternary deposits (Champlain Sea clay) determined on core samples and densities determined on limestone samples from outcrops were used to constrain models of the clay layer overlying the higher density bedrock formations (limestone). The gravity anomaly map delineates areas where clay basins attain > 100 m depth. Assuming a realistic density for the Champlain Sea clays (1.9-2.1 g/cm³), the thickness over the higher density bedrock formations (Ordovician carbonate rocks) was modeled and compared with well logs and two seismic reflection profiles. The models match quite well with the information determined from well logs and seismic methods. It was found that gravity and the thickness of unconsolidated deposits are correlated but the uncertainties in both data sets preclude the definition of a direct correlation between the two. We propose that gravity measurements at a local scale be used as an inexpensive means of mapping the thickness of unconsolidated deposits in low-density urban areas. To obtain meaningful results, three conditions must exist. Firstly, elevations of gravity stations must be measured accurately using differential GPS; secondly, that the regional gravity field must be well defined, and thirdly, that the local geology be simple enough to be realistically represented with a two-layer model.     

Seismic hazard assessment for derivation of earthquake scenarios in Risk-UE

The main features of the Risk-UE project approach to assessing the ground-shaking (and related hazards) distribution within urban areas are described, as a basis for developing seismic damage scenarios for European cities. Emphasis was placed in the project on adoption of homogeneous criteria in the quantitative treatment of seismicity and in constructing the ground-shaking scenarios, despite wide differences in amount and quality of data available for the cities involved. The initial steps of the approach include treatment of the regional seismotectonic setting and the geotechnical zonation of the urban area, while the hazard assessment itself takes the form of both a deterministic analysis, and of a probabilistic, constant-hazard spectra analysis. Systematic 1D site response analyses were used, mostly in the softer soil zones, to modify (when needed) the obtained ground motion maps. Earthquake induced hazard effects, such as liquefaction and landsliding, are also briefly dealt with at the end.     

基于城市抗震弹塑性分析的我国主要城市建筑地震风险评估

全国尺度的城市建筑地震风险评估对城市防震减灾工作有着重要意义。本文根据全国人口普查和城市统计年鉴等给出的宏观指标建立城市建筑数据库,通过GEAR1方法(Global earthquake activity rate model 1)和第五代中国地震动参数区划图给出具体场地的地面运动强度,通过地面坡度与剪切波速的对应关系确定的场地类别来考虑地震动输入,采用城市抗震弹塑性分析方法建立建筑分析模型,通过地震经济损失风险指标和建筑严重破坏和倒塌风险作为风险评价指标,给出中国大陆主要城市建筑地震风险分布图。结果分析表明,本文方法可以基于可公开获取的数据预测全国不同城市的建筑震害风险;根据第五代地震动参数区划图给出的地面强度,地震经济损失高风险区主要是设防加速度0.3g以上地区;考虑城市人口、GDP因素后,中、东部城市因人口和财富密度较高,建筑地震风险增加明显;不同地震动选波对经济损失风险影响较小,而对倒塌风险影响较大。本文分析方法可以为城市建筑地震风险分析提供相关参考。     

潜在地震滑坡危险区区划方法

不同地区地震活动的强度和频率是不同的.基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡危险研究在综合了地震烈度、位置、复发时间等因素的基础上,考虑了地震动峰值加速度时空分布的特点,可以有效地应用于潜在地震滑坡危险区区划.以汶川地震灾区为研究对象,根据研究区的地质构造、地震活动特点等划分出灾区的潜在震源区,对该区进行地震危险性分析,并在此基础上采用综合指标法做出基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡危险性区划.所得地震滑坡危险性区划按照滑坡危险程度分为高危险、较高危险、较低危险和低危险四级,表示未来一段时间内研究区在遭受一定超越概率水平的地震动作用下,不同地区地震滑坡发生的可能程度. 本文给出的地震滑坡危险性区划结果中,汶川地震滑坡崩塌较发育的汶川、北川、茂县等部分区域均处于高危险或较高危险区域;在对具有较高DEM精度的北川擂鼓镇地区所作的地震滑坡危险性区划中,汶川地震中实际发生的地震滑坡灾害与地震滑坡危险区划结果表现出较好的一致性.对区域范围而言,基于地震危险性分析的地震滑坡区划,可为初期阶段的土地规划使用及重大工程选址提供参考.     

Shear wave velocity-based liquefaction evaluation in the great Wenchuan earthquake： a preliminary case study

The great Wenchuan earthquake (Ms = 8.0) in 2008 caused severe damage in the western part of the Chengdu Plain. Soil liquefaction was one of the major causes of damage in the plain areas, and proper evaluation of liquefaction potential is important in the definition of the seismic hazard facing a given region and post-earthquake reconstruction. In this paper, a simplified procedure is proposed for liquefaction assessment of sandy deposits using shear wave velocity (Vs), and soil liquefaction from the Banqiao School site was preliminarily investigated after the earthquake. Boreholes were made at the site and shear wave velocities were measured both by SASW and down-hole methods. Based on the in-situ soil information and Vs profiles, the liquefaction potential of this site was evaluated. The results are reasonably consistent with the actual field behavior observed after the earthquake, indicating that the proposed procedure is effective. The possible effects of gravel and fines contents on liquefaction of sandy soils were also briefly discussed.     

渤海地区地震危险性特征及对工程抗震设防的启示

本文分析了渤海海域地震构造环境及地震活动特征,总结了近年来对该地区潜在震源区划分的一些新认识,分析了地震危险性区划结果.在此基础上,引入地震危险性特征参数K对研究区进行地震危险性分区,通过不同场点的地震危险性曲线证明了地震环境造成的危险性差异,并以研究区内3个概率水准的地震动峰值加速度的比值统计证明了引入地震危险性分区的必要性.研究表明:(1)不同概率水准的地震动参数之间不存在固定的比例关系,受地震环境影响,地震危险性分区和地震动参数区划图结合使用可以更准确地反应地震危险性特征;(2)对于一般工程,根据地震动参数区划图所给的50年超越概率10%的地震动参数折算所得到的小震的地震作用不具有统一的概率水准,抗震设防目标的实现没有科学保证;海洋平台抗震设计中利用强度水平地震推算得到韧性水平地震作用也不具有统一的概率水准;(3)将地震危险性分区和地震动参数区划结合使用或编制统一抗倒塌水准的区划图是一般工程抗震设防的科学做法,对于海洋平台的抗震设防,宜明确韧性水平地震作用的概率水准.     

基于华北区域地震活动性分布的地震危险性评价模型

采用了分布式地震活动性模型. 该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时简化了地震危险性概率分析方法. 根据破坏性地震目录建立了3个地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了华北区域内的a值分布特征,使用3种典型的衰减模型,分别计算了50年内超越概率10%, 5%和2%的地震动峰值加速度分布. 其分析结果显示了峰值加速度分布特征与我国第四代区划图大体一致,特定地震活动区（太原、 石家庄等地区）的峰值加速度略高于第四代区划图的结果,而这种峰值加速度分布特征与该地区较高的地震活动性特征是一致的. 概率危险性曲线结果表明,唐山、太原和北京等地区的潜在地震危险性比华北区域内其它城市高.      

Site classification using equivalent soil profiles for building-liquefaction interaction

The seismic behaviour of a building on a liquefiable deposit is a complex interaction which involves quantifying both shaking induced damage and permanent ground deformation-related damage. In this paper the key parameters that influence both surface shaking and foundation settlements have been identified as the depth, thickness and liquefaction resistance of an equivalent liquefiable layer. These parameters can be used to develop an ‘equivalent soil profile’ that is analogous to the equivalent single degree-of-freedom that reduces the complexity of the dynamic response of a building into comparable and easily understood quantities. The equivalent soil profile is quantified independent of the seismic hazard, making it compatible with performance based design and assessment frameworks such that the building and soil profile can be directly assessed at different levels of seismic hazard. Several numerical studies are presented that demonstrate the influence of these key parameters on the ground surface shaking and foundation settlement. A set of criteria are proposed for classifying soil profiles into 22 different soil classes for regional loss assessment. An algorithm was developed for automatically fitting the equivalent soil profile to a cone penetration test trace and issues with the fitting are discussed. Field reconnaissance was undertaken to collect additional data to support existing datasets on the performance of buildings in Adapazari, during the 1999 Kocaeli, Turkey, earthquake (Mw = 7.4). The field case history data was used to investigate the correlation between the depth, thickness and liquefaction resistance of an equivalent liquefiable layer, on the extent of foundation permanent deformation. The case history data showed that in general a shallow, thick and weak liquefiable layer near the surface results in significant settlement but a lack of data for buildings on non-liquefiable deposits and the additional complexities involved with real buildings and soil deposits, meant that the trends observed in the idealised numerical models could not identified in the field case history data set.

     

Liquefaction analysis from seismic velocities and determination of lagoon limits Kumluca/Antalya example

This study analyzes liquefaction in the Kumluca/Antalya residential area and surroundings, using seismic velocities of soil deposits and the predominant period of the earthquake wave. The liquefaction analysis calculates shear–stress ratio, shear–resistance ratio and safety factor. Shear wave velocity used in liquefaction analysis was determined through surface waves. Moreover, the dynamic parameters of the ground were calculated through seismic velocities. Distributions of groundwater, shear wave velocity, adjusted shear wave velocity, predominant period of vibration, soil amplification and ground acceleration of the research area were mapped. In addition, the liquefied and non-liquefied areas as a result of liquefaction analysis in Kumluca were determined and presented as maps. Examining these maps, among all these maps, the limits of the lagoon sandbar and the old lake area were determined using only the liquefaction map.     

液化规范判别与实际震害现象的差异对比——以唐山地震震害为例

砂土液化判别是地震地质灾害判定和预测的一项重要工作,判别方法以规范为主,但在实际工作中发现规范的判别结果与实际情况存在差异。本文在查阅大量唐山地震震害资料的基础上,选择3个典型工程场地,根据实际钻孔现场标贯原位测试数据,采用《建筑抗震设计规范》中的方法进行液化判别,发现规范判别结果与实际震害现象之间存在着一些差异。分析认为,抗震设防烈度与实际地震动不同、地下水位变化、上覆非液化土层的厚度、局部场地效应、地震动持时以及实验造成的人为误差等,均是造成差异的原因。分析结果也表明,规范中的判别方法具有较普遍的适用性和较强的实用性,但由于基础数据的局限性及判别公式本身存在的定性异常,其判别结果的合理性还有待于进一步研究论证,这也是造成判别结果与实际震害现象存在差异的原因之一。本文的研究结果对地震液化的机理认识、判别方法的完善,均具有一定的意义。     

Recording-based identification of site liquefaction

Reconnaissance reports and pertinent research on seismic hazards show that liquefaction is one of the key sources of damage to geotechnical and structural engineering systems. Therefore, identifying site liquefaction conditions plays an important role in seismic hazard mitigation. One of the widely used approaches for detecting liquefaction is based on the time-frequency analysis of ground motion recordings, in which short-time Fourier transform is typically used. It is known that recordings at a site with liquefaction are the result of nonlinear responses of seismic waves propagating in the liquefied layers underneath the site. Moreover, Fourier transform is not effective in characterizing such dynamic features as time-dependent frequency of the recordings rooted in nonlinear responses. Therefore, the aforementioned approach may not be intrinsically effective in detecting liquefaction. An alternative to the Fourier-based approach is presented in this study, which proposes time-frequency analysis of earthquake ground motion recordings with the aid of the Hilbert-Huang transform （HHT）, and offers justification for the HHT in addressing the liquefaction features shown in the recordings. The paper then defines the predominant instantaneous frequency （PIF） and introduces the PiF-related motion features to identify liquefaction conditions at a given site. Analysis of 29 recorded data sets at different site conditions shows that the proposed approach is effective in detecting site liquefaction in comparison with other methods.     

Evaluation of CPT-based Liquefaction Procedures at Regional Scale

The liquefaction database describing the response of the Christchurch area in the 2010–2011 Canterbury Earthquake Sequence (CES) provides a unique basis for evaluating the regional application of various liquefaction analysis procedures, from liquefaction triggering analyses through to liquefaction vulnerability parameters. This database was used to compare the Robertson and Wride [17], Moss et al. [15] and Idriss and Boulanger [7] liquefaction triggering procedures as well as evaluate the impact of the 2014 versus 2008 Cone Penetration Test (CPT)-based liquefaction triggering procedure by Idriss and Boulanger on four liquefaction vulnerability parameters (S_V1D, LPI, LPI_ISH and LSN), the correlation of those parameters with observed liquefaction-induced damage patterns in the CES, and the mapping of expected damage levels for 25, 100 and 500 year return period ground motions in Christchurch. The effects on S_V1D, LPI, LPI_ISH and LSN were small relative to other sources of variability for the majority of the affected areas, particularly where liquefaction was clearly severe or clearly not. Nonetheless, considering the separation of the land damage populations as well as consistency between the events, the the IB-2008 liquefaction triggering procedures appears to give a slightly better fit to the mapped liquefaction-induced land damage for the regional prediction of liquefaction vulnerability for the Christchurch soils. The Boulanger and Idriss [1] triggering procedure produces improved agreement between the liquefaction vulnerability parameters and observations of damage for: areas south of the Central Business District (CBD) where there tends to be higher soil Fines Content (FC), and localized areas that experienced liquefaction during the smaller Magnitude (M) earthquake events. Implementation of the 2014 liquefaction triggering procedure for mapping of expected liquefaction-induced damage at 25, 100 and 500 year return period ground motions is shown to require use of representative Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)-M values consistent with the de-aggregation of the seismic hazard. Use of equivalent magnitude-scaled PGA-M7.5 pairs, where the equivalency relates to previously published MSF relationships, with the 2014 liquefaction triggering procedure is shown to be unconservative for certain situations.     

Availability of seismic vulnerability index (Kg) in the assessment of building damage in Van,Eastern Turkey

The seismic vulnerability index(Kg) is a parameter that depends on the dynamic properties of soil. With this parameter, it is possible to evaluate the vulnerability of a point-based site under strong ground motion. Since it is related to the natural vibration period and amplification factor, the parameter can be calculated for both soil and structure. In this study, HVSR microtremor measurements are recorded at more than 200 points in the Van region to generate a seismic vulnerability index map. After generating the map, it is determined that the hazard potential and seismic vulnerability index is high at the sites close to Van Lake and at the densely populated city center. Damage information of the buildings investigated after the 2011 Van earthquakes(Mw = 7.1) are placed on the seismic vulnerability index map and it is realized that there may be a correlation between the damage and the seismic vulnerability index. There is a high correlation, approximately 80 percent, between the damage rate map based on the damaged building data and the K_g values. In addition, vulnerability indexes of buildings are calculated and the effect of local soil conditions and building properties on the damage levels are determined. From the results of this study and the site observations after the 2011 Van earthquakes, it is found that structural damage is not only structure-dependent but is also related to the dynamic behavior of soil layers and local soil conditions.     

GIS支持下的地震诱发滑坡危险区预测研究

为了满足对地震诱发滑坡危险区预测的不断增长的迫切要求，灾害评价成为帮助决策过程重要的基础工具之一。即使地震滑坡危险性各组份的评价很困难，但地理信息可辅助提出这种灾害制图的有关方法。描述了用于地理信息系统识别和定量计算不同地震滑坡危险区的技术方法，确定了地震烈度、地形坡度、岩土体类型和现存滑坡密度共4个因子参与的地震诱发滑坡危险性分析。在ARC／INFO DRID支持下，进行叠合分析，由此编制了云南省地震诱发滑坡危险区预测图。由地貌学家提出的地震诱发滑坡预测为规划和工程师提供了对区域规划和建筑工程有价值的技术方法。     

Population Expousure in the High Seismic Hazard AREA of Low-elevation Coastal Zone in China from 1990 to 2015

中国沿海低地人口稠密、经济发达,是包括地震在内的自然灾害频发地区。由于已有研究成果缺乏对地震灾害暴露和风险的研究,本文利用CoastalDEM、Worldpop人口和中国地震动参数区划等数据,分析1990—2015年中国沿海低地地震高危险性地区人口暴露时空变化特征。研究结果表明,中国沿海低地地震高危险性地区面积为15.1×104 km2,约占全国沿海低地总面积的70.6%;1990—2015年,沿海低地地震高危险性地区暴露人口不断增加,2015年暴露人口达16869万人,与此同时,城市人口快速增长,而农村人口大幅下降。     

Seismogenic potential and earthquake hazard assessment in the Tell Atlas of Algeria

Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.     

美国地震区划图的发展——地震危险性图与抗震设计图

在过去的数十年里,美国地震区划图随着建筑抗震设计需求而不断发展变化,从最初的一张图发展成现今抗震设计图和地震危险性图两图共生的形式。地震危险性图主要反映依据地震科学认识与基础观测资料评估得到的国土地震危险性分布,抗震设计图则继承了传统地震区划图的主要功能,反映国土范围内建筑抗震设计所需地震动设计参数的分布,服务于建筑设计。依据抗震设计需求,美国地震区划图的演化过程可划分为地震系数分区区划、设计地震地震动区划和最大考虑地震地震动区划3个阶段,各阶段均始于地震危险性图的改进,并以抗震设计理念与方法的更新换代以及与之相适应的抗震设计图的编制为标志。本文总结了美国地震区划图的演化历程,对地震危险性图与抗震设计图发生变革的技术原因、主要特征、应用意义及其影响进行了重点的分析与论述。     

The seismic microzonation of the city of Catania (Italy) for the maximum expected scenario earthquake of January 11, 1693

Safety against earthquake hazards presents two aspects: structural safety against potentially destructive dynamic forces and site safety related to geotechnical phenomena, such as amplification, landsliding and soil liquefaction. The correct evaluation of seismic hazard is, therefore, highly affected by risk factors due to geological nature and geotechnical properties of soils. In response to these new developments, several attempts have been made to identify and appraise geotechnical hazards and to represent them in the form of zoning maps, in which locations or zones with different levels of hazard potential are identified. The geotechnical zonation of the subsoil of the city of Catania (Italy) suggests a high vulnerability of the physical environment added to site amplification of the ground motion phenomena. The ground response analysis at the surface, in terms of time history and response spectra, has been obtained by some 1D equivalent linear models and by a 2D linear model, using a design scenario earthquake as input at the conventional bedrock. In particular, the study has regarded the evaluation of site effects in correspondence of the database of about 1200 boreholes and water-wells available in the data-bank of the Catania area. According to the response spectra obtained through the application of the 1D and 2D models, the city of Catania has been divided into some zones with different peak ground acceleration at the surface, to which corresponds a different value of the Seismic Geotechnical Hazard. A seismic microzoning map of the urban area of the city of Catania has been obtained. The map represents an important tool for the seismic improvement of the buildings, indispensable for the mitigation of the seismic risk.     

青藏工程走廊地震危险性对比分析及区划

潜在震源区地震活动性参数、地震动衰减关系对地震危险性分析结果至关重要。以中国第五代地震动区划图潜在震源区划分方案为基础,采用2类震级分档分别建立自编及五代图潜在震源区空间分布函数,收集4组青藏高原及周缘地区地震动衰减关系,采用不同组合对青藏工程走廊沿线的81个场点进行概率地震危险性分析计算,得到50年超越概率10%(地震重现期475年)的各场点基岩地震动峰值加速度(PGA),并转换为一般场地(Ⅱ类)PGA,对计算结果进行对比分析,并与第五代地震动区划图归档上下限值进行比较。结果显示:采用我国西部地区地震动衰减关系计算得到的PGA最大,采用云南地区地震动衰减关系得到的PGA最小,采用川藏地区及青藏高原东北缘地震动衰减关系时居中;在同一地震动衰减关系下,采用自编空间分布函数计算得到的PGA普遍略大于采用第五代图空间分布函数时;在震级上限为8.5的潜在震源区及附近地区,潜在震源区空间分布函数震级分档对计算结果有显著影响。综合分析表明,采用自编Ⅱ型震级分档空间分布函数方案与川藏地区地震动衰减关系组合方案的计算结果最为理想。最后,采用该组合方案对青藏工程走廊50年超越概率10%的基岩场地PGA及一般场地PGA进行了区划。