Spatial prediction of landslide for Badong County in the Three Gorges reservoir district

By using the landslide risk evaluating model and the advantages of GIS technology in image processing and space analysis, the relative landslide hazard and risk evaluating system of the new county site of Badong is built up. The system is mainly consisted of four subsystems: Information management subsystem, hazard assessment subsystem, vulnerability evaluation subsystem and risk prediction subsystem. In the system, landslide hazard assessment, vulnerability evaluation, risk predictions are carried out automatically based on irregular units. At last the landslide hazard and risk map of the study area is compiled. During the whole procedure, Matter-Element Model, Artificial Neural Network, and Information Model are used as assessment models. This system provides an effective way for the landslide hazard information management and risk prediction of each district in the Reservoir of Three Gorge Project. The result of the assessment can be a gist and ensure for the land planning and the emigration project in Badong.     

三峡库首区滑坡空间分布特征分析及危险性评价

采用遥感和GIS技术从宏观上对三峡库首区三峡工程二期、三期治理滑坡和新增滑坡的空间分布与地形地貌、地层岩性、断裂构造、水系流域和人为影响等因素的相关程度进行分析,获取孕灾环境特征规则,并对其危险性进行评价。结果表明,地形因子中的高程、坡向和高程变异系数与滑坡的相关性较高;研究区内断裂构造对滑坡发育的控制作用不明显;研究区滑坡体的空间分布受到不同因子组合的约束,可根据不同因子组合约束的权重对研究区滑坡危险性进行评价。     

Micromorphology of landslide soil——Case study on the Jibazi landslide in Yunyang in the Three Gorges Region, China

Introduction The studies on landslides in the Three Gorges Region were conducted, e.g., those on affecting factors and forming mechanism of landslide (YIN Kunlong et al. 1998, DENG Qinglu et al. 2000, CHEN Yongbo et al. 2003, XU Qiang et al. 2003), on ris…     

基于空间多尺度分析的滑坡易发性评价——以三峡库区秭归-巴东段为例

以三峡库区秭归-巴东段为例,将地理加权回归(GWR)模型引入到研究区的空间尺度分割方法中,利用粒子群优化(PSO)算法对支持向量机(SVM)模型参数进行优化,构建GWR-PSO-SVM耦合模型,完成研究区滑坡易发性评价,并与传统的PSO-SVM耦合模型结果进行对比。结果表明,在特定类别精度分析、总体预测精度分析和曲线下面积分析中,本文方法评价效果均优于传统方法。     

Spatial data mining system for ore-forming prediction

The authors designed the spatial data mining system for ore-forming prediction based on the theory and methods of data mining as well as the technique of spatial database,in combination with the characteristics of geological information data.The system consists of data management,data mining and knowledge discovery,knowledge representation.It can syncretize multi-source geosciences data effectively,such as geology,geochemistry,geophysics,RS.The system digitized geological information data as data layer files which consist of the two numerical values,to store these files in the system database.According to the combination of the characters of geological information,metallogenic prognosis was realized,as an example from some area in Heilongjiang Province.The prospect area of hydrothermal copper deposit was determined.     

Spatial data mining system for ore-forming prediction

The authors designed the spatial data mining system for ore-forming prediction based on the theory and methods of data mining as well as the technique of spatial database, in combination with the characteristics of geological information data. The system consists of data management, data mining and knowledge discovery, knowledge representation. It can syncretize multi-source geosciences data effectively, such as geology,geochemistry, geophysics, RS. The system digitized geological information data as data layer files which consist of the two numerical values, to store these files in the system database. According to the combination of the characters of geological information, metallogenic prognosis was realized, as an example from some area in Heilongjiang Province. The prospect area of hydrothermal copper deposit was determined.     

顾及降雨及库水位因素的滑坡时滞分析与预测——以三峡库区新铺滑坡为例

降雨及库水位涨落是引起库岸滑坡形变失稳的主要诱发因素,但滑坡位移速率对此类诱发因素的响应具有一定的滞后性,影响人类对滑坡所处运动状态的判断与预测.针对常规预测模型中未考虑时滞效应的问题,利用三峡库区新铺滑坡的GNSS位移监测数据、奉节气象站降雨数据以及三峡库区库水位涨落数据,通过对监测区内9个GNSS监测点的位移速率序...     

长江三峡水库巴东库段地震成因分析

根据对震区野外地震地质调查资料的分析。认为长江三峡水库蓄水期间及蓄水后库区巴东附近连续发生的微地震活动主要为水库诱发地震．其中部分为构造地震，部分为蓄水引起的岩溶塌陷地震。     

三峡库区堆积层滑坡间歇性活动预测:以白水河滑坡为例

三峡库区堆积层滑坡在季节性降雨和库水位周期波动的影响下呈现间歇性活动特征,滑坡活动强度与诱发因素作用强度和时间关系密切。以三峡库区白水河滑坡为例,分析了堆积层滑坡间歇性活动特征和诱发因素,发现降雨和库水位下降是滑坡变形的主要诱发因素。根据滑坡时序曲线特征,将滑坡累积位移分解为趋势项位移和周期项位移,采用多项式拟合的方法来预测趋势项位移,利用长短期记忆神经网络模型来预测周期项位移,并与极限学习机模型、广义回归神经网络模型的预测结果进行了对比分析,发现长短期记忆神经网络模型预测滑坡间歇性活动精度更高。     

三峡地区地震灾害损失预测研究

利用三峡及邻区发生的40多次历史地震资料，结合30多年来的20多次地震灾害现场考察资料，对三峡地区地震灾害损失进行了预测。结果显示：同震级的水库诱发地震的危害性比天然构造地震大，破坏性更强，但对三峡大坝不会构成危害。     

考虑真实气体的低渗气藏动态预测模型

针对气藏的生产特征,基于稳定渗流理论,以气体高速非达西渗流为基础,考虑真实气体PVT参数动态变化,结合气藏物质平衡方程,推导建立同时考虑滑脱效应、启动压力梯度、应力敏感等因素共同影响的低渗气藏动态预测模型,分析各因素对气井产量变化的影响.结果表明:在考虑高速非达西流的基础上,考虑滑脱效应将导致渗流阻力降低而引起气井稳产年限增加和地层压力下降变快,考虑启动压力梯度和应力敏感效应时将导致渗流阻力增加而引起气井稳产年限降低和地层压力下降变慢;启动压力梯度和渗透率变形系数越大,气井稳产年限下降幅度越大,地层压力下降越慢,而滑脱因子越大,气井稳产年限增加幅度越大,地层压力下降越快.     

基于近台数据的2017-06巴东M4.3地震序列震源深度研究

利用三峡遥测地震台网和流动加密台资料计算2017-06巴东M4.3地震序列震源深度并分析其深度误差。结果显示,序列震源深度主要分布在3~5 km;流动加密台观测明显改善了震源深度测定精度,其震源深度误差由平均1.8 km减少到1.1 km。研究认为,直达波法测定三峡遥测台网（特别是布置流动加密台后）网内地震可获得较高精度的震源深度。     

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三峡蓄水进程中库首区地震活动与库水位的关联性研究

利用三峡数字遥测地震台网产出的地震观测资料,基于互相关-重排实验技术系统分析三峡工程在蓄水进程中地震活动与库水位的相关性及不确定度,探讨三峡水库地震的成因机制.结果表明:1)蓄水进程中库首区地壳经历了"持续加载-渗透饱水-回弹与再平衡"的复杂过程,库区地震活动的时空分布特征与库水位的时序变化关系密切;2)从开始蓄水到1...     

蜀南地区茅口组古岩溶识别标志及储层预测

为预测蜀南地区茅口组储层,通过地质、钻井与岩心观察,地震及测井、地化指标分析等方法确定古岩溶发育状况,结合生产测试资料分析古岩溶储层在地震和测井上的响应特征.结果表明:该区主要储集空间类型为裂缝—溶洞型;储层地震响应总体表现为地震波的异常反射、相干剖面的不连续性及速度反演出现低速区;测井响应表现为深、浅侧向电阻率降低且出现正差异,密度减小,中子孔隙度和声波时差增大,而井径和自然伽马曲线的变化受空隙充填控制.该结果对该区储层预测及油气勘探具有指导意义.     

松辽盆地南部白垩系青山口组页岩气储层评价及生储有利区预测

以松辽盆地南部为研究区,以白垩系青山口组为研究目的层,采用烃源岩质量、储层特征和资源潜力分析的/三位一体0页岩气储层综合评价方法,分析青山口组页岩气形成条件,评价青山口组的有机质丰度、储层特征和产能,得出白垩系青山口组烃源岩质量好,储层优良,生气条件良好,具页岩气生储潜能.根据青山口组页岩气生储条件评价,预测松辽盆地南部青山口组页岩气生储有利区,认为青山口组一段页岩气生储最有利区位于长岭凹陷中偏南部,位于长岭凹陷中部、长岭凹陷中部以北部分地区和德惠凹陷中部的青山口组二+三段为页岩气成藏发育最有利区带.     

水库滑坡成因机制研究进展与展望

滑坡是水库库区主要地质灾害类型之一,开展水库滑坡成因机制研究具有重要理论意义和工程应用价值.利用WebofScience(WoS)数据库和VOSviewer文献计量工具对1999-2018年已发表的969篇以水库滑坡为主题的相关论文进行研究趋势分析.文献计量分析表明三峡库区滑坡稳定性和变形研究是未来水库滑坡成因机制研究主要趋势.从库水对滑坡的宏观力学作用方式、库水作用下岩土体渗流应力耦合机理和库水对岩土体劣化作用过程等方面,对国内外水库滑坡成因机制研究的主要成果与进展进行了综述.综合现有的研究成果指出水库滑坡在精细化地质建模、岩土体多场耦合特征参数获取和岸坡长期演化评价等方面尚存在不足.基于上述问题,提出水库滑坡成因机制研究应以多场信息监测为重要手段,立足多学科交叉,采用大数据融合与挖掘和人工智能技术等解决水库滑坡长期演化趋势难题.考虑水库滑坡所处地质环境的复杂性,建议未来应在水库滑坡立体精细地质建模、多场关联监测、地质结构多场多尺度演变过程、基于监测数据大数据分析的滑坡预警阈值确定和原位试验综合平台构建等方面进一步深入研究.     

2017-06巴东MS4.3地震序列视应力变化

采用固定台站的宽频带数字地震波形资料,计算2017-06-16巴东MS4.3地震序列16个ML1.8以上地震的视应力、拐角频率及震源破裂半径等震源参数,并系统分析地震视应力值与各参数之间的关系。结果表明,地震序列视应力值与震级正相关,地震震源谱的高频成分不丰富,拐角频率和视应力值均远小于非水库区的构造地震,震源区地下结构较为复杂。     

考虑裂缝干扰的气藏压裂水平井产能预测模型

基于压裂水平井井身结构复杂,需要建立考虑裂缝参数变化且符合水平井渗流特征的产能预测模型.为准确预测压裂水平井产能,通过保角变换和势的叠加原理,建立新模型,不仅考虑裂缝长度、裂缝间距、裂缝夹角的变化对压裂水平井产能的影响,还考虑裂缝间的相互干扰.结果表明:压裂水平井产能随着裂缝条数、长度和裂缝夹角的增加而增大.模型通过现场验证,计算单井无阻流量与试采结果对比,相对误差为8.3%,计算结果较为准确.     

Spatial pattern of rural settlements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

A quantitative analysis of the spatial pattern of rural settlements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River was made with the major data sources being the relevant ETM image and the national geographical database of China (including contour line, river and road) at the scale of 1:250 000, and using image interpretation and field investigation to obtain spatial information on rural settlements. The results of the spatial analysis technique of GIS and correlation analysis showed that most settlements (78.2 %) were located in the mountain area at 1500 ∼ 2700 m altitude, and almost half in the arid valley area. More than 80.0 % of settlements had their slopes above 15°. Most settlements had good access to water resources, roads and communications, and tended to cluster close to the road network rather than the river. About half of the rural settlements in the study area were relatively concentrated, while the others were decentralized. Those with higher altitude usually had land with steep slope, inconvenient water and road accesses, and were located far apart from each other. In view of such a situation, further research should be done to make reasonable countermeasures on these settlements for better living conditions and ecosystem stability.