Influence of the Convection over the South China Sea on the Summer Precipitation of Shandong Province

1　Introduction　ShandongProvince ,whichislocatedintheeastofChina ,consistspartlyofpeninsulaandpartlyofinlandwithatotalareaofabout 1 5 0 0 0 0km2 .Lyingfrom34°2 0′Nto 38°2 0′Nandfrom 1 1 4°4 0′Eto 1 2 2°4 0′E ,alltheareabelongstothemoderateregionandtothetypicalAsianmonsoonclimate .SoShandong’ssum merprecipitationaccountsforover 6 0 %oftheannualrainfall,andaccordinglyflood droughtdisastersmain lyoccurinsummer.Moreover,becauseitisgeographi callylocatedinthetransitionalareabetweenthe…     

Response of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset to air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean

We objectively define the onset date of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon, after having evaluated previous studies and considered various factors. Then, interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the SCS summer monsoon onset are analyzed. In addition, we calculate air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean using the advanced method of CORARE3.0, based on satellite remote sensing data. The onset variation cycle has remarkable interdecadal variability with cycles of 16 a and 28 a. Correlation analysis between air-sea heat fluxes in the Indian Ocean and the SCS summer monsoon indicates that there is a remarkable lag correlation between them. This result has important implications for prediction of the SCS summer monsoon, and provides a scientific basis for further study of the onset process of this monsoon and its prediction. Based on these results, a linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the monsoon in 2011 and 2012. The forecast is that the onset date of 2011 will be normal or 1 pentad earlier than the normal year, while the onset date in 2012 will be 1-2 pentads later.     

An Alternative Index for the Onset of the Summer Monsoon over the South China Sea

1　Introduction　TheindicesfortheAsianmonsoonhavebeenstud iedinmanyworks .Recently ,thechoiceofpropermonsoonindiceshasreceivedexceptionalattentionandraisedcontroversy (WebsterandYang ,1 992 ;Goswa mietal.,1 999;Goswami,2 0 0 0 ;Wang ,2 0 0 0 ) .Us ingzona…     

Anomalies of asian summer monsoon related to ssta in the south China Sea and the tropical pacific

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Circulation patterns of summer monsoon corresponding to two kinds of indices over the South China Sea

The characteristics of circulation corresponding to two kinds of indices of summer monsoon onset over the South China Sea (SCS) have been discussed using the reanalysis data of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research. It is found that there are two patterns of deep convection that occur at different locations and influence the summer monsoon onset over the SCS. One is over the Asia continent and the western Pacific corresponding to the southwesterly of summer monsoon prevailing over the northern and central part of the SCS, while the other is near the Philippines that affects the westerly summer monsoon as prevailing over the central and southern southern part of the SCS. Since these two kinds of convection affecting the summer monsoon onset do not always occur together, thus the summer monsoon onset time is different when determined by various indices.     

Definition of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

We analyze statistically different definitions of the South China Sea summer monsoon (SCSSM) onset are to establish a SCSSM onset time series that is more recognizable by a majority of indicators. With the acknowledged index, we determine a key area (105°E–112.5°E, 7.5°N–12.5°N) and define the zonal wind component in this key area as a new SCSSM onset index, using daily mean reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric circulations before and after the onset of the SCSSM determined using the index defined in this paper are preliminarily studied. Results show that the Somalia cross-equatorial flow is enhanced, the strongest westerly wind in the tropical Indian Ocean shifts northward, the cyclone couple in the Bay of Bengal and the Southern Hemisphere weaken and move eastward, convection over the South China Sea increases, and the subtropical high retreats from the South China Sea after the outbreak of the SCSSM. By analyzing the atmospheric circulation, it is found that in 1984 and 1999, the SCSSM broke out in pentads 29 and 23, respectively, which is consistent with the onset times determined using our index.     

An analysis of the causes of decadal variations of rainfall in Shandong in summer

The precipitation in Shandong in July, August as well as the whole summer (JJA) and the corresponding 500hPa geopotential height fields are analyzed by means of the SVD (singular value decomposition) methodology. It is found that the general circulations in East Asia and the Western Pacific underwent decadal changes around 1979. The geopotential height, in particular over key areas like the South China Sea and the Philippines, increased after 1979. Corresponding to the changes in the geopotential height, the rainfall in Shandong started to decrease around 1979. The synthesized analysis shows that when the geopotential height at 500hPa level decreases in the key areas, the Western Pacific subtropical high shifts northward and an anticyclonic anomalous cell enforces the southerly flow over Shandong-Korea-Japan, Shandong could experience a wet period. A dry period is likely to occur when the geopotential height increases in these key areas, the subtropical high moves southward or expands westward to a great distance, and a cyclonic anomalous cell controls Shandong. Respective conceptual models for the causative mechanism are obtained for the cases of July, August and the whole summer (JJA).     

青藏高原冬季植被变化与南亚夏季风关系分析

利用1982年1月-2001年12月青藏高原植被归一化指数(NDVI)和NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料,应用相关分析、奇异值分解(SVD)和经验正交分解(EOF)的方法,分析了青藏高原冬季的NDVI变化与南亚夏季风的关系.通过分析表明,高原植被与南亚地区850hPa纬向风场和纬向风垂直切变(U850hPa-U200hPa)有比较好的正相关关系.用纬向风垂直切变EOF分析的第一特征向量对应的时间系数定义一个南亚夏季风指数(EOFI),该系数与高原冬季NDVI相关较好,而且能较好地反映南亚夏季风的变化.     

An approach to prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset

In the present paper, correlation between the South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） onset and heat content in the upper layer of the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean is examined using the Scripps Institution of Oceanography dataset for the period of 1955-1998 and an approach to prediction the SCSSM onset is proposed. Correlation showes that there exists interdecadal variability of the SCSSM onset demarcated by 1970 with the largest correlation coefficient in the area west of the center of the warm pool rather than near its centers, implying certain effect from other factors involved besides ENSO. As the correlation is poor for the period before 1970, the heat content anomaly of the warm pool after 1970 is used to indicate early or late onset of the SCSSM beforehand. An ideal representative area （1°×1°） for the warm pool heat content was determined with its center at 3°N/138°E. The nearest TAO （TAO-Tropical Atmosphere Ocean-array） mooring to the center is at 2°N/137°E, and chosen to calculate the heat content for prediction. It is suggested that the TAO mooring at 2°N/137°E could be used to predict the SCSSM onset with the heat content in the upper layer, if the correlation between the SCSSM onset and the heat content of the warm pool runs like that of after 1970. On the other hand, if the situation does like the one before 1970, the representative station is determined at 13°S/74°E with relatively poor correlation, meaning that the warm pool in the western Pacific Ocean plays more important role in the SCSSM onset than the Indian Ocean.     

贵州与印度的夏季风的异同分析

季风作了气象科学的一个重要课题，许多人都作了大量研究，中国和印度均处于季风区，印度季风和中国季风的研究已作了大量研究，揭露了不少事实，但中国季风的研究多指我国的东部，而贵州位于我国西南部，地处东亚季风和印度季风之间的过渡区，因此，对贵州省的论及较少，从气候的角度出发，把贵州和印度的季风的某些特征量，如降雨、风、环流等进行对比分析，在一定程度上反映了贵州和印度夏季风的主要异同。     

Annual and interannual variability of scatterometer ocean surface wind over the South China Sea

To investigate the annual and interannual variability of ocean surface wind over the South China Sea (SCS), the vector empirical orthogonal function (VEOF) method and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) method were employed to analyze a set of combined satellite scatterometer wind data during the period from December 1992 to October 2009. The merged wind data were generated from European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS)-1/2 Scatterometer, NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) and NASA’s Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) wind products. The first VEOF mode corresponds to a winter-summer mode which accounts for 87.3% of the total variance and represents the East Asian monsoon features. The second mode of VEOF corresponds to a spring-autumn oscillation which accounts for 8.3% of the total variance. To analyze the interannual variability, the annual signal was removed from the wind data set and the VEOFs of the residuals were calculated. The temporal mode of the first interannual VEOF is correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) with a four-month lag. The second temporal interannual VEOF mode is correlated with the SOI with no time lag. The time series of the two interannual VEOFs were decomposed using the HHT method and the results also show a correlation between the interannual variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events.     

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE INTERANNUAL OSCILLATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

A two and a half layer oceanic model of wind-driven, thermodynamical general circulation is appliedto study the interannual oscillation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea (SCS). Themodel consists of two active layers: the upper mixed layer (UML) and the seasonal thermocline, with themotionless abyss beneath them. The governing equations which include momentum, continuity and sea.temperature for each active layer, can describe the physics of Boussinseq approximation, reduced gravityand equatorial β-plane. The formulas for the heat flux at the surface and at the interface between twoactive layers are designed on the Haney scheme. The entrainment and detrainment at the bottom of theUML induces vertical transport of mass,momentum and heat, and couples of dynamic andthermodynamic effect.Using leap-frog integrating scheme and the Arakawa-C grid the model is forced bya time-dependent wind anomaly stress pattern obtained from category analysis of COADS. The numerical results indicate that t     

太阳磁场磁性指数的变化对南亚夏季风环流强度的影响

利用太阳黑子相对数资料,根据太阳磁场磁性特征建立了太阳磁场磁性指数时间序列,并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料建立了1948-2006年的南亚夏季风环流强度指数,对两者之间存在的可能相关关系作了分析。结果表明：太阳磁场磁性变化是激发南亚夏季风环流强度年代际变化的重要原因,当太阳北（南）半球磁场磁极为N（S）极为前导时,南亚夏季风环流强度较强,当太阳北（南）半球磁场磁极为S（N）极为前导时,南亚夏季风环流强度较弱,太阳磁场磁性强度的变化超前于南亚夏季风环流强度变化5年左右。两者之间的这种相关关系,为南亚夏季风环流强度年代际变化方面的预测提供了理论依据。     

MODEL OF UPPER OCEANIC CIRCULATIONS IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA DURING NORTHEAST MONSOON

MODUrnONTheS0uthChinaSea(SCS)isabophalrnarginalbasinwhereEastAsiamonsoonsprevail.0bviousadjustInentSoftheupperocanoccurduetOthealtematingsurnxneandwintermonsoons.ThemostboohantaspchoflargeanlecurmtSintheSesaretheupperoonnicresponsetothemonsoons(Dale,l956).MostpreviousmrehesfocusedondiagnostiesandmodelingofsuffocecurmtS.Wwti(l96l)plotalsurfacentsbasedonshipdriflsintheNAGAReportNo.2anddescritaltheperiodicallysdri-annualreversingofwindsandrtinthisarea.Xuetal.(l982)calculatalthedy-naAn…     

Interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon and its relationship with latent heat flux in the Pacific Ocean

We analyzed interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon and its relationship with latent heat flux in the Pacific Ocean, using NCEP wind field and OAFlux heat flux datasets. Results indicate that South China Sea monsoon intensity had an obvious interdecadal variation with a decreasing trend. Variability of the monsoon was significantly correlated with latent heat flux in the Kuroshio area and tropical Pacific Ocean. Variability of latent heat flux in the Kuroshio area had an interdecadal increasing trend, while that in the tropical Pacific Ocean had an interdecadal decreasing trend. Latent heat flux variability in these two sea areas was used to establish a latent heat flux index, which had positive correlation with variability of the South China Sea monsoon. When the latent heat flux was 18 months ahead of the South China Sea monsoon, the correlation coefficient maximized at 0.58 (N=612), with a 99.9% significance level of 0.15. Thus, it is suggested that latent heat flux variability in the two areas contributes greatly to interdecadal variability of the South China Sea monsoon.     

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE TIDE-SURGE INTERACTION IN THE EAST CHINA SEA AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

Nearshore sea levels in the East China Sea(ECS) and the South China Sea(SCS) during tropical cyclones-Typhoon 8007(Joe, 1980) and Typhoon 7209(Betty 1972) were simulated. The tide-surge interactions in the two regions are remarkable and locally produced. The corresponding nonlinear effects were derived from the different nonlinear terms. The contribution of the quadratic friction term is the most important, the shallow term comes second the convective term is the least; the phases of the interactions generated by the various nonlinear terms are asynchronous. Both the quadratic friction and the convective term can stimulate and aggravate the surge structure with more peaks. The bottom friction features have crucial influences on tides and surges, and the interaction is sensitive to the changes of tide and surge.     

The South China Sea throughflow: linkage with local monsoon system and impact on upper thermal structure of the ocean

The tendency of South China Sea throughflow (SCSTF) variation associated with the local monsoon system, and its impact on upper-layer thermal structure, are studied using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) dataset, combined with Ishii reanalysis data. Luzon Strait Transport (LST) is measured and used as an index for studying the SCSTF variation. Results show that LST had an increasing tendency over the last 50 years, mainly in summer and fall. The increasing tendency was 0.017 1 Sv/a in summer and 0.027 4 Sv/a in fall, as estimated by SODA, and 0.018 0Sv/a in summer and 0.018 9 Sv/a in fall, as estimated by "Island Rule" theory. LST increased by 0.53Sv in JJA (June-July-August) and 0.98Sv in SON (September-October-November) after climate shift, as inferred by SODA data. The average LST anomaly in JJA and SON is strongly related to the local monsoon system, especially to variability of the meridional wind stress anomaly after application of a 3-year running mean, with correlation coefficients 0.57 and 0.51, respectively. In addition to the basin-scale wind forcing, the local northeasterly wind stress anomaly in the SCS can push Pacific water entering the SCS more readily in JJA and SON after climate shift, and an SCSTF-associated cooling effect may favor subsurface cooling more frequently after climate shift.     

Comparison of remote sensing data with in-situ wind observation during the development of the South China Sea monsoon

Wind measurements derived from QuikSCAT data were compared with those measured by anemometer on Yongxing Island in the South China Sea (SCS) for the period from April 2008 to November 2009. The comparison confirms that QuikSCAT estimates of wind speed and direction are generally accurate, except for the extremes of high wind speeds (>13.8m/s) and very low wind speeds (<1.5m/s) where direction is poorly predicted. In-situ observations show that the summer monsoon in the northern SCS starts between May 6 and June 1. From March 13, 2010 to August 31, 2010, comparisons of sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall from AMSR-E with data from a buoy located at Xisha Islands, as well as wind measurements derived from ASCAT and observations from an automatic weather station show that QuikSCAT, ASCAT and AMSR-E data are good enough for research. It is feasible to optimize the usage of remote-sensing data if validated with in-situ measurements. Remarkable changes were observed in wind, barometric pressure, humidity, outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), air temperature, rainfall and SST during the monsoon onset. The eastward shift of western Pacific subtropical high and the southward movement of continental cold front preceded the monsoon onset in SCS. The starting dates of SCS summer monsoon indicated that the southwest monsoon starts in the Indochinese Peninsula and forms an eastward zonal belt, and then the belt bifurcates in the SCS, with one part moving northeastward into the tropical western North Pacific, and another southward into western Kalimantan. This largely determined the pattern of the SCS summer monsoon. Wavelet analysis of zonal wind and OLR at Xisha showed that intra-seasonal variability played an important role in the summer. This work improves the accuracy of the amplitude of intra-seasonal and synoptic variation obtained from remote-sensed data.