Evaluating groundwater discharge to tidal rivers based on a Rn-222 time-series approach

The natural flux of groundwater into coastal water bodies has recently been shown to contribute significant quantities of nutrients and trace metals to the coastal ocean. Groundwater discharge and hyporheic exchange to estuaries and rivers, however, is frequently overlooked though it often carries a distinctly different chemical signature than surface waters. Most studies that attempt to quantify this input to rivers use multiple geochemical tracers. However, these studies are often limited in their spatial and temporal extents because of the labor-intensive nature of integrating multiple measurement techniques. We describe here a method of using a single tracer, ²²²Rn, to rapidly characterize groundwater discharge into tidally-influenced rivers and streams. In less than one week of fieldwork, we determined that of six streams that empty into the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida, three (Eau Gallie River, Turkey Creek, and Main Canal) did not receive substantial groundwater inputs, one canal (C-25 Canal) was dominated by groundwater exchange, and the remaining two (Sebastian River system and Crane Creek) fell somewhere in between. For more detailed discharge assessments, we focused on the Sebastian River system, a stratified tidal river estuary, during a relatively dry period (June) and a wet period (July) in 2008. Using time-series ²²²Rn and current velocity measurements we found that groundwater discharge into all three branches of the Sebastian River increased by 1–2 orders of magnitude during the wetter period. The estimated groundwater flow rates were higher than those reported into the adjacent IRL, suggesting that discharge into these rivers can be more important than direct discharge into the IRL. The techniques employed here should work equally well in other river/stream systems that experience significant groundwater discharge. Such assessments would allow area managers to quickly assess the distribution and magnitude of groundwater discharge nature into rivers over large spatial ranges.     

Forecasting ocean waves: Comparing a physics-based model with statistical models

The literature on ocean wave forecasting falls into two categories, physics-based models and statistical methods. Since these two approaches have evolved independently, it is of interest to determine which approach can predict more accurately, and over what time horizons. This paper runs a comparative analysis of a well-known physics-based model for simulating waves near shore, SWAN, and two statistical techniques, time-varying parameter regression and a frequency domain algorithm. Forecasts are run for the significant wave height, over horizons ranging from the current period (i.e., the analysis time) to 15 h. Seven data sets, four from the Pacific Ocean and three from the Gulf of Mexico, are used to evaluate the forecasts. The statistical models do extremely well at short horizons, producing more accurate forecasts in the 1–5 hour range. The SWAN model is superior at longer horizons. The crossover point, at which the forecast error from the two methods converges, is in the area of 6 h. Based on these results, the choice of statistical versus physics-based models will depend on the uses to which the forecasts will be put. Utilities operating wave farms, which need to forecast at very short horizons, may prefer statistical techniques. Navies or shipping companies interested in oceanic conditions over longer horizons will prefer physics-based models.     

Hybrid frequency–time domain models for dynamic response analysis of marine structures

Time-domain models of marine structures based on frequency domain data are usually built upon the Cummins equation. This type of model is a vector integro-differential equation which involves convolution terms. These convolution terms are not convenient for analysis and design of motion control systems. In addition, these models are not efficient with respect to simulation time, and ease of implementation in standard simulation packages. For these reasons, different methods have been proposed in the literature as approximate alternative representations of the convolutions. Because the convolution is a linear operation, different approaches can be followed to obtain an approximately equivalent linear system in the form of either transfer function or state-space models. This process involves the use of system identification, and several options are available depending on how the identification problem is posed. This raises the question whether one method is better than the others. This paper therefore has three objectives. The first objective is to revisit some of the methods for replacing the convolutions, which have been reported in different areas of analysis of marine systems: hydrodynamics, wave energy conversion, and motion control systems. The second objective is to compare the different methods in terms of complexity and performance. For this purpose, a model for the response in the vertical plane of a modern containership is considered. The third objective is to describe the implementation of the resulting model in the standard simulation environment Matlab/Simulink.     

单锚腿系泊系统动力响应的时域计算方法

在时域内建立了单锚腿系泊系统在风、浪、流联合作用下动力响应的计算方法。在分析波浪荷载时，使用了设计波法和非线性Stokes五阶波，并由经验公式求出了船舶的风、流荷载作用力。系统的动力初始条件由准静态方法求得。由静态方法得到系泊力后，使用了四阶Runge-Kutta方法求解船舶的运动时历，并作为立管和浮筒动力计算的边界条件。由二维梁柱单元和集中质量法构建了立管和浮简的数学模型，立管的运动方程用Wilson-θ法求解。模拟计算结果和试验结果进行了比较，吻合得较好,表明本方法能够用于计算单锚腿系泊系统的动力响应。     

Some features of the dynamic structure of a deep estuary

A boundary layer formulation for the dynamic structure of a deep estuary is developed. Cross-stream averages are used, but the boundary layer structure is shown to depend on the cross-stream geostrophic constraint. A similarity transformation and a weighted residual method are used to derive an approximate solution for the velocity and salinity structure of the upper layer. This solution indicates that, in the central regime of the estuary, outflow extends through the entire halocline. Inflow takes place in a much less stratified lower layer, and mass exchange between the layers is by upwelling. This structure is modified in the outer regime of the estuary, where mixing between the layers develops, and in the inner regime, where a sharp halocline develops and where the dynamics are dominated by river runoff. The implications of the dynamics for the flushing process and for pollutant movement and dispersion are discussed.     

A review of EU bio-economic models for fisheries: The value of a diversity of models

The lessons learned from a review of thirteen existing European bio-economic models used in the evaluation of EU policies are presented. How these models compare and differ in terms of their biological and economic components, the integration between the components, which indicators are selected and how they are used, are described and analysed. The article concludes that the multitude of construction differences reflects the necessity of adapting the modelling approach to answer different questions. Since real life questions in fisheries are so diverse, answering them requires a diversity of models.     

On the adequacy of second-order models to predict abnormal waves

The paper is intended to extend the investigations about the nature of abnormal waves that have been reported in the work of Guedes Soares et al. (Characteristics of abnormal waves in North Sea states. Applied Ocean Research 25, [337–344]). The same dataset gathered at the oil platform North Alwyn in the North Sea during the November storm in 1997 is used along with the time series from the Draupner platform, in which an abnormal wave occurred. The data are reanalyzed from the viewpoint of the applicability of second-order models to fit large waves. The observed results confirm that the second-order approximation is not adequate to describe highly asymmetric and abnormal waves.     

海洋大型底栖动物群落次级生产力估算模型研究进展及应用评价

大型底栖动物是海洋生态系统的重要组成部分,在生态系统物流和能流中占有重要地位。定量估算海洋大型底栖动物次级生产力在其功能研究中具有重要意义。本文综述了海洋大型底栖动物次级生产力估算模型研究的3个阶段:起步阶段(1979-1990)、发展与完善(1990-2001)、成熟并广泛应用(2001-至今)。国内关于海洋大型底栖动物次级生产力估算基本都采用Brey(1990)经验公式,采用经验公式的方式可分为3类:逐种计算、按站位计算和按类群计算,逐种和按类群计算最符合Brey(1990)给出的参考步骤。不同方法估算同一海域次级生产力结果不同,同一估算方法估算不同生境不同群落次级生产力结果偏差也不同。今后的工作应注重种群次级生产力研究,积累大量基础数据,以便建立适宜我国特定海域的大型底栖动物次级生产力估算模型。     

论IPCC-AR4模式对影响西北太平洋热带气旋的大气动力环境场的气候特征模拟性能

评估了23个IPCC-AR4模式在低纬地区1948—1999年7—9月大尺度环流场的模拟性能,重点关注西北太平洋区域的西太副高、季风槽以及台风活动海域的垂直风切变。结果显示,绝大多数模式的7—9月低纬地区500hPa平均高度场、850hPa风场空间分布与NCEP都具有很高的相似性,但大多模式500hPa高度场存在系统性偏低,而850hPa风场偏强。所有模式模拟的西北太平洋副高脊线与NCEP都有一致的西南-东北走向,但有些模式的脊线位置偏离NCEP的较远。有4个模式没有模拟出类似于NCEP的季风槽线。综合模式对夏季热带环流场、西北太平洋副热带高压、季风槽以及西北太平洋热带气旋活动关键区域垂直风切变气候特征的模拟性能,按性能优劣,排在前10的模式依次是mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_hadgem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a;排在后6位的模式是inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er。     

The dynamic behaviour of a river-dominated tidal inlet, River Murray, Australia

Australia's largest river, the River Murray, discharges to the southern ocean through a coastal lagoon and river-dominated tidal inlet. Increased water extractions upstream for irrigation have led to significantly reduced flows at the mouth and, as a result, the area is undergoing rapid change, particularly with regard to the rate at which sediment is being transported into the lagoon. Based on detailed and accurate bathymetric surveys it has been possible to estimate that the rate of lagoon in-filling is of the order of 100,000 m³ per year for the period June 2000 to May 2003, although the actual rate shows significant year to year variability. Dredging of the lagoon commenced in 2000 in an attempt to reverse the trend.In an effort to understand the behaviour of the inlet a one-dimensional numerical model of the inlet has been developed. The model extends the original of van de Kreeke by including a dynamic inlet throat area based on predicted river flows and a sediment transport module to predict the resulting net sediment transport. Comparisons with water level data collected on both the ocean and lagoon sides of the mouth have shown that the model is able to predict the attenuation and lag of the tidal signal reasonably well. The sediment transport model was based on predicted sediment concentrations in the surf zone and was found to predict the rate of sediment in-filling to an acceptable level of accuracy. It is envisaged that the model will be a useful management tool, especially since it is possible to manipulate river discharges to the mouth.     

剩余产量模型在不同渔业中的应用

剩余产量模型因其简单和所需数据较少的特点为渔业资源评估广泛采用.本文应用目前常用的四种剩余产量模型对五种渔业下的渔业生物种群及北大西洋箭鱼种群xiphias gladius评估效果作了比较.四种剩余产量模型在渔业1中的评估效果较好,而在渔业2中的效果较差;Schnute模型在充分捕捞的渔业,如渔业3、4、5,尤其是在低生物量的渔业3中评估效果较好,但不适合评估未充分捕捞的渔业.Walters-Hilborn模型(W-H模型)适用于各种渔业,尤其是渔业1、4、5.在过度捕捞渔业中如渔业3、4,模型对参数q的估计较其它参数接近真值.在北大西洋箭鱼(xiphias gladius)渔业的评估中,W-H模型对MSY的估计约为14000吨,接近于Prager(1996)的结果.     

New modified gradient models for MPS method applied to free-surface flow simulations

In this paper, two modified pressure gradient models based on Taylor series expansion are proposed to enhance the higher order source term MPS (MPS-HS) method. The modified models consist of gradient correction matrices applied to the existing (base) pressure gradient models. To validate the modified pressure gradient models first hydrostatic pressure test is simulated and compared to both the base and modified MPS methods. Using the modified models are shown to reduce unphysical pressure oscillations observed in the base models. Second, an evolution of an elliptical drop in a 2D flow field is examined and shown to verify the models. Third, the proposed models illustrated appropriate stability and consistency properties against analytical solutions when an altered gravitational acceleration was superimposed to the hydrostatic pressure test. In addition, an improved performance is observed when Higher order Laplacian (HL) and Error-Compensating Source (ECS) of the Poisson Pressure Equation (PPE) schemes are coupled with the modified pressure gradient models compared to coupling them with the base gradient models. Finally, the modified MPS methods enhanced performances are validated in a free-surface flow simulation for a dam break problem with impact pressure, and a violent sloshing flow in a rectangular tank when compared to the base MPS methods against an existing experimental data.     

An ecosystem modeling approach to predicting cod recruitment

The Norwegian Ecological Model (NORWECOM) biophysical model system implemented with the ROMS ocean circulation model has been run to simulate conditions over the last 25 years for the North Atlantic. Modeled time series of water volume fluxes, primary production, and drift of cod larvae through their modeled ambient temperature fields have been analyzed in conjunction with VPA estimated time series of 3-year-old cod recruits in the Barents Sea. Individual time series account for less than 50% of the recruitment variability; however, a combination of simulated flow of Atlantic water into the Barents Sea and local primary production accounts for 70% of the variability with a 3-year lead. The associated regression predicts increased recruitment between 2007 and 2008 from about 450–700 million individuals with a standard error of nearly 150 million.     

Idealised flow models to predict alluvial sandstone body distribution in the Middle Jurassic Yorkshire Basin

Prediction of the subsurface position of alluvial channel sandstones is of great importance in the search for potential hydrocarbon reservoirs. For maximum production at minimum expense, wells need to be sited where there is abundant sandstone and, for enhanced oil recovery, detailed knowledge of sandstone-body geometry and connectivity is desirable. Attempts to predict the position of sandstone-bodies in the subsurface have included theoretical computer simulation and detailed empirical modelling of alluvial architecture (three-dimensional rock type distributions). Up to now, no reliable predictive method has been developed and any improvement is of significance.The method presented here combines the theoretical approach to tectonic control of alluvial architecture with the available geological data to predict subsurface concentrations and orientations of alluvial sandstone bodies.