Assessment of landslide susceptibility for a landslide-prone area (north of Yenice, NW Turkey) by fuzzy approach

. Regional landslide susceptibility assessments pose complex problems. To solve these problems, numerous approaches, such as statistical analysis, geotechnical engineering approach, geomorphologic approach and fuzzy logic, have been employed. However, all the available methods for regional landslide susceptibility assessments have some uncertainties due to a lack of knowledge and variability. Minimizing these uncertainties provides realistic approaches. Use of the fuzzy logic approach to produce a landslide susceptibility map of a landslide-prone area in NW Turkey is the main purpose of the present study. For this purpose, the study includes five main stages, these being the preparation of a landslide inventory of the study area, the application of factor analysis, the extraction of fuzzy if-then rules, the use of a geographical information system, and the control of the reliability of the resulting landslide susceptibility map. Slope angle, slope aspect, land use, weathering depth, water conditions and topographical elevation were considered as landslide conditioning factors for the study area. A total of 23 if-then rules was extracted from the field data. Employing these rules, fuzzified index maps representing each parameter were obtained. Finally, combining these maps, the landslide susceptibility map of the area was prepared. When compared with the landslide susceptibility map, the landslides identified in the area were found to be located in the very high- and high-susceptibility zones. As far as the performance of the fuzzy approach for processing is concerned, the images appear to be quite satisfactory, the zones determined on the map being zones of relative susceptibility.     

Implementation of reconstructed geomorphologic units in landslide susceptibility mapping: the Melen Gorge (NW Turkey)

In the international literature, although considerable amount of publications on the landslide susceptibility mapping exist, geomorphology as a conditioning factor is still used in limited number of studies. Considering this factor, the purpose of this article paper is to implement the geomorphologic parameters derived by reconstructed topography in landslide susceptibility mapping. According to the method employed in this study, terrain is generalized by the contours passed through the convex slopes of the valleys that were formed by fluvial erosion. Therefore, slope conditions before landsliding can be obtained. The reconstructed morphometric and geomorphologic units are taken into account as a conditioning parameter when assessing landslide susceptibility. Two different data, one of which is obtained from the reconstructed DEM, have been employed to produce two landslide susceptibility maps. The binary logistic regression is used to develop landslide susceptibility maps for the Melen Gorge in the Northwestern part of Turkey. Due to the high correct classification percentages and spatial effectiveness of the maps, the landslide susceptibility map comprised the reconstructed morphometric parameters exhibits a better performance than the other. Five different datasets are selected randomly to apply proper sampling strategy for training. As a consequence of the analyses, the most proper outcomes are obtained from the dataset of the reconstructed topographical parameters and geomorphologic units, and lithological variables that are implemented together. Correct classification percentage and root mean square error (RMSE) values of the validation dataset are calculated as 86.28% and 0.35, respectively. Prediction capacity of the different datasets reveal that the landslide susceptibility map obtained from the reconstructed parameters has a higher prediction capacity than the other. Moreover, the landslide susceptibility map obtained from the reconstructed parameters produces logical results.     

Groundwater changes in relation to seismic activity: a case study from Eskipazar (Karabuk, Turkey)

The reported study contributes to research on earthquake prediction. Between 2007 and 2009, changes were observed in two geothermal and mineral springs located in Eskipazar (～3–5 km to the north of the North Anatolian Fault Zone) in Turkey, in relation to small-magnitude earthquakes. During pre-seismic and post-seismic activities, variations were observed in the hydrogeological parameters of the spring waters. Temperature increases of 0.4–1°C were measured in one of the springs prior to three different earthquakes. There was a slight increase in the spring discharge with respect to the first earthquake, which occurred closest to the spring. This led to a reduction in electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solids (TDS), Ca, HCO₃, δ¹³C, Al, Mn, and Fe concentrations in the spring water, whereas tritium and Se values increased. Several days before the third earthquake, which occurred at a shallower depth, a decrease was observed in the discharge, which led to a reduction in tritium, δ¹³C and Si concentrations. These variations could be explained by changes in the mixing ratio of waters of different genesis, depending on changes in permeability, pore pressure, and flow paths of the aquifer due to regional stress changes.     

Application of fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to landslide susceptibility mapping at Haraz watershed, Iran

The main goal of this study is to produce landslide susceptibility maps of a landslide-prone area (Haraz) in Iran by using both fuzzy logic and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) models. At first, landslide locations were identified by aerial photographs and field surveys, and a total of 78 landslides were mapped from various sources. Then, the landslide inventory was randomly split into a training dataset 70?% (55 landslides) for training the models and the remaining 30?% (23 landslides) was used for validation purpose. Twelve data layers, as the landslide conditioning factors, are exploited to detect the most susceptible areas. These factors are slope degree, aspect, plan curvature, altitude, lithology, land use, distance from rivers, distance from roads, distance from faults, stream power index, slope length, and topographic wetness index. Subsequently, landslide susceptibility maps were produced using fuzzy logic and AHP models. For verification, receiver operating characteristics curve and area under the curve approaches were used. The verification results showed that the fuzzy logic model (89.7?%) performed better than AHP (81.1?%) model for the study area. The produced susceptibility maps can be used for general land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.     

GIS based landslide susceptibility mapping using a fuzzy logic approach: A case study from Ghurmi-Dhad Khola area, Eastern Nepal

Landslides cause extensive loss of life and property in the Nepal Himalaya. Since the late 1980s, different mathematical models have been developed and applied for landslide susceptibility mapping and hazard assessment in Nepal. The main goal of this paper is to apply fuzzy logic to landslide susceptibility mapping in the Ghurmi-Dhad Khola area, Eastern Nepal. Seven causative factors are considered: slope angle, slope aspect, distance from drainage, land use, geology, distance from faults and folds, soil and rock type. Likelihood ratios are obtained for each class of causative factors by comparison with past landslide occurrences. The ratios are normalized between zero and one to obtain fuzzy membership values. Further, different fuzzy operators are applied to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Comparison with the landslide inventory map reveals that the fuzzy gamma operator with a γ-value of 0.60 yields the best prediction accuracy. Consequently, this operator is used to produce the final landslide susceptibility zonation map.     

Nitrate and heavy metal pollution resulting from agricultural activity: a case study from Eskipazar (Karabuk,Turkey)

In most countries of the world, groundwater and surface water are at a serious risk of pollution due to chemicals used in agricultural activities. The present study examined whether such a risk exists in Eskipazar, Turkey and the surrounding area, which covers a surface area of 696 km². Nitrate pollution (NO₃) was observed in waters discharging from the Örencik Formation, consisting of loose conglomerate, sandstone, mudstone, siltstone, and claystone levels; from the Yörük member of the Örencik Formation consisting of limestone, from areas where the Örencik Formation and Yörük member are located together, and from alluvium. Agricultural is practiced in these areas, and the waters discharging from these formations are used as drinking water and for domestic purposes. In particular, periodically varying levels of pollutants, such as B, Pb, Hg, Se were detected in wells drilled in Örencik Formation featuring a high NO₃ concentration. The concentrations of S, Cr, Mn, Fe, Cu, Zn, Ga, Br, Sr, Y, I, Ba, and U in these waters are also slightly higher than other cold waters in the study area. In addition to the NO₃ pollution, high levels of Ca and SO₄ pollution was observed at a well drilled in alluvium. In addition, some trace element concentrations identified in the wells drilled in the Örencik Formation were higher than the average values at geothermal and/or mineral springs in the study area. The study area has an adequate sewage system and has no sources of pollution, such as mineralization, industrial center, waste disposal area, etc. Therefore, it is believed that the main causes of NO₃ and trace element pollution are fertilizers and pesticides used in agricultural activities. Water–rock interaction, usage period of fertilizers and pesticides, amount of precipitation, groundwater level, usage of elements by plants, mobility of elements, pH value of the environment, redox potential, adsorption/desorption, biochemical processes, etc. are thought to be the causes of the periodical variation of some trace element concentrations observed in these waters.     

A multi-method approach to study the stability of natural slopes and landslide susceptibility mapping

In this paper, a multi-method approach for the assessment of the stability of natural slopes and landslide hazard mapping applied to the Dakar coastal region is presented. This approach is based on the effective combination of geotechnical field and laboratory works, of GIS, and of mechanical (deterministic and numerical) stability analysis. By using this approach, valuable results were gained regarding instability factors, landslide kinematics, simulation of slope failure and coastal erosion. This led to a thorough assessment and strong reduction in the subjectivity of the slope stability and hazard assessment and to the development of an objective landslide danger map of the SW coast of Dakar. Analysis of the results shows that the slides were influenced by the geotechnical properties of the soil, the weathering, the hydrogeological situation, and the erosion by waves. The landslide susceptibility assessment based on this methodological approach has allowed for an appropriate and adequate consideration of the multiple factors affecting the stability and the optimization of planning and investment for land development in the city.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping for a problematic segment of the natural gas pipeline,Hendek (Turkey)

A segment of natural gas pipeline was damaged due to landsliding near Hendek. Re-routing of the pipeline is planned, but it requires the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map. In this study, the statistical index (Wi) and weighting factor (Wf) methods have been used with GIS to prepare a landslide susceptibility map of the problematic segment of the pipeline. For this purpose, thematic layers including landslide inventory, lithology, slope, aspect, elevation, land use/land cover, distance to stream, and drainage density were used. In the study area, landslides occur in the unconsolidated to semi-consolidated clayey unit and regolith. The Wf method gives better results than the Wi method. Lithology is found to be the most important aspect in the study area. Based on the findings obtained in this study, the unconsolidated to semi-consolidated clayey unit and alluvium should be avoided during re-routing. Agricultural activities should not be allowed in the close vicinity of the pipeline.     

Influence of seismic acceleration on landslide susceptibility maps: a case study from NE Turkey (the Kelkit Valley)

Particularly in the last decade, landslide susceptibility and hazard maps have been used for urban planning and site selection of infrastructures. Most of the procedures for preparing of landslide susceptibility maps need high-quality landslide inventory map. Although the rainfall and seismic activities are accepted as triggering factor for landslides, designation of the triggering factor for each landslide in the inventory is almost impossible when well-documented records are unavailable. Therefore, during preparation of landslide susceptibility map, whole landslide records in the inventory map are used together without classifying based on the triggering factors. Although seismic activity is accepted as a triggering factor, possible effect of the use of seismic activity on production of landslide susceptibility map was investigated in this study, and the subject is open to discussion. For this purpose, a series of stability analyses based on circular failure and infinite slope model were performed considering different pseudostatic conditions. The results of analyses show that gentle slopes have higher susceptibility to failure than steeper ones, even if their stability conditions (susceptibilities) are similar for static condition. The seismic forces acting on failure surfaces may not be sufficiently taken into consideration in the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility maps. Employing the general decreasing trend in stability condition based on slope face angle and the seismic acceleration, a new procedure was introduced for preparing of the landslide susceptibility map for a scenario earthquake. The prediction performance of occurring landslides increased after the procedure was applied to the conventionally prepared landslide susceptibility map. According to the threshold independent spatial performance analyses of the proposed methodology and the produced landslide susceptibility maps, the area under ROC curve values were calculated as 0.801, 0.933, and 0.947 for the maps prepared by considering conventional method and scenario earthquakes having M _w values of 5.5 and 7.5, respectively.     

PFR model and GiT for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study from Central Alborz, Iran

In northern parts of Iran such as the Alborz Mountain belt, frequent landslides occur due to a combination of climate and geologic conditions with high tectonic activities. This results in millions of dollars of financial damages annually excluding casualties and unrecoverable resources. This paper evaluates the landslide susceptible areas in Central Alborz using the probabilistic frequency ratio (PFR) model and Geo-information Technology (GiT). The landslide location map in this study has been generated based on image elements interpreted from IRS satellite data and field observations. The display, manipulation and analysis have been carried out to evaluate layers such as geology, geomorphology, soil, slope, aspect, land use, distance from faults, lineaments, roads and drainages. The validation group of actual landslides and relative operation curve method has been used to increase the accuracy of the final landslide susceptibility map. The area under the curve evaluates how well the method predicts landslides. The results showed a satisfactory agreement of 91% between prepared susceptibility map and existing data on landslide locations.     

GIS-based landslide susceptibility for Arsin-Yomra (Trabzon,North Turkey) region

The purpose of this study is to assess the susceptibility of landslides around Yomra and Arsin towns near Trabzon, in northeast of Turkey, using a geographical information system (GIS). Landslide inventory of the area was made by detailed field surveys and the analyses of the topographical map. The landslide triggering factors are considered to be slope angle, slope aspect, distance from drainage, distance from roads and the weathered lithological units, which were called as “geotechnical units” in the study. Idrisi and ArcGIS packages manipulated all the collected data. Logistic regression (LR) and weighted linear combination (WLC) statistical methods were used to create a landslide susceptibility map for the study area. The results were assessed within the scope of two different points: (a) effectiveness of the methods used and (b) effectiveness of the environmental casual parameters influencing the landslides. The results showed that the WLC model is more suitable than the LR model. Regarding the casual parameters, geotechnical units and slopes were found to be the most important variables for estimating the landslide susceptibility in the study area.     

Assessing LNRF,FR, and AHP models in landslide susceptibility mapping index: a comparative study of Nojian watershed in Lorestan province,Iran

Landslides and slope instabilities are major risks for human activities which often lead to economic losses and human fatalities all over the world. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare the results of Landslide Nominal Risk Factor (LNRF), Frequency Ratio (FR), and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) models in mapping Landslide Susceptibility Index (LSI). The study case, Nojian watershed with an area of 344.91 km², is located in Lorestan province of Iran. The procedure was as follows: first, the effective factors of the landslide basin were prepared for each layer in the GIS software. Then, the layers and the landslides of the basin were also prepared using aerial photographs, satellite images, and fieldwork. Next, the effective factors of the layers were overlapped with the map of landslide distribution to specify the role of units in such distribution. Finally, nine factors including lithology, slope, aspect, altitude, distance from the fault, distance from river, fault land use, rainfall, and altitude were found to be effective elements in landslide occurrence of the basin. The final maps of LSI were prepared based on seven factors using LNRF, FR, and AHP models in GIS. The index of the quality sum (Qs) was also used to assess the accuracy of the LSI maps. The results of the three models with LNRF (40%), FR (39%), and AHP (44%) indicated that the whole study area was located in the classes of high to very high hazard. The Qs values for the three models above were also found to be 0.51, 0.70 and 0.70, respectively. In comparison, according to the amount of Qs, the results of AHP and FR models have slightly better performed than the LNRF model in determining the LSI maps in the study area. Finally, the study watershed was classified into five classes based on LSI as very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The landslide susceptibility maps can be helpful to select sites and mitigate landslide hazards in the study area and the regions with similar conditions.     

A statistical approach to landslide risk modelling at basin scale: from landslide susceptibility to quantitative risk assessment

A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models. The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed. Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions.     

A new approach to landslide geomorphological mapping using the Open Source software in the Olvera area (Cadiz, Spain)

This paper presents the preliminary results of a geomorphological survey of the Olvera area (Cadiz province, Betic Ranges, Spain) and the use of the Geographic Information System (GIS) Open Source (OS) software plus Database Management System (DBMS) for making available and distributing the landslide data over the Web. In the geomorphologic survey, different landforms have been identified in the area, including structural, anthropogenic, fluvial, karst, and slope forms. In particular, the majority of the slope forms are complex (from topple to rotational slides and falls), but there are also minor forms like debris flows and mudslides. To manage geomorphological data, an Open Source GIS was used, which contained the following components: QuantumGIS, System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses (SAGA), GIS and Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS), GIS for Digital Elevation Model (DEM) generation. A key aim was to make the project-derived data available over the Web. This was achieved using MapServer which allows for the representation of the derived geospatial data with pMapper providing the graphical Web interface. Our study highlights the process dynamics of run-off erosion in Olvera derived through the use of advanced computer-based mapping tools. The resulting map products and interpretations are available via the Internet. To date, derivative maps have been produced to improve maintenance of roads and transport and of the construction of new infrastructure.     

Use of fuzzy relations to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide prone area (West Black Sea Region, Turkey)

Preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is important for engineering geologists and geomorphologists. However, due to complex nature of landslides, producing a reliable susceptibility map is not easy. For this reason, many procedures have been used to produce such maps. In this study, a new attempt is tried to produce landslide susceptibility map of a part of West Black Sea Region of Turkey. To obtain the fuzzy relations for producing the susceptibility map, a landslide inventory database is compiled by both field surveys and airphoto studies. A total of 266 landslides are identified in the study area, and dominant mode of failure is rotational slide while the other mode of failures are soil flow and shallow translational slide. The landslide inventory and the parameter maps are analyzed together using a computer program (FULLSA) developed in this study. The computer program utilizes the fuzzy relations and produces the landslide susceptibility map automatically. According to this map, 9.6% of the study area is classified as very high susceptibility, 10.3% as high susceptibility, 8.9% as moderate susceptibility, 27.5% as low susceptibility and 43.8% as very low susceptibility or nonsusceptible areas. The prediction performance of the susceptibility map is checked by considering actual landslides in the study area. For this purpose, strength of the relation (r_ij) and the root mean square error (RMSE) values are calculated as 0.867 and 0.284, respectively. These values show that the produced landslide susceptibility map in the present study has a sufficient reliability. It is believed that the approach employed in this study mainly prevents the subjectivity sourced from the parameter selection and provides a support to improve the landslide susceptibility mapping studies.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping: A comparison of logistic regression and neural networks methods in a medium scale study, Hendek region (Turkey)

Landslide susceptibility mapping is one of the most critical issues in Turkey. At present, geotechnical models appear to be useful only in areas of limited extent, because it is difficult to collect geotechnical data with appropriate resolution over larger regions. In addition, many of the physical variables that are necessary for running these models are not usually available, and their acquisition is often very costly. Conversely, statistical approaches are currently pursued to assess landslide hazard over large regions. However, these approaches cannot effectively model complicated landslide hazard problems, since there is a non-linear relationship between nature-based problems and their triggering factors. Most of the statistical methods are distribution-based and cannot handle multisource data that are commonly collected from nature. In this respect, logistic regression and neural networks provide the potential to overcome drawbacks and to satisfy more rigorous landslide susceptibility mapping requirements. In the Hendek region of Turkey, a segment of natural gas pipeline was damaged due to landslide. Re-routing of the pipeline is planned but it requires preparation of landslide susceptibility map. For this purpose, logistic regression analysis and neural networks are applied to prepare landslide susceptibility map of the problematic segment of the pipeline. At the end, comparative analysis is conducted on the strengths and weaknesses of both techniques. Based on the higher percentages of landslide bodies predicted in very high and high landslide susceptibility zones, and compatibility between field observations and the important factors obtained in the analyses, the result found by neural network is more realistic.     

Comparing predictive capability of statistical and deterministic methods for landslide susceptibility mapping: a case study in the northern Apennines (Reggio Emilia Province, Italy)

Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km² in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.