火山碎屑空降沉积的二维数值模拟

从大气中火山灰扩散的二维微分方程出发 ,采用Suzuki(1983)对火山空降碎屑灾害数值模拟的数学模型 ,研制出用于单个火山一次性喷发事件的碎屑物空降沉积分布的实用程序。介绍了编程的基本思想 ,讨论了编程过程中所遇到的实际问题 ,同时结合长白山火山物理研究工作给出的长白山火山动力学参数 ,对长白山火山喷发空降碎屑厚度分布进行了具体模拟应用 ,针对实际模拟结果对程序提出了改进意见 ,并对Suzuki火山碎屑空降沉积模型进行了讨论     

龙岗金龙顶子火山空降碎屑物数值模拟及概率性灾害评估

空降碎屑物为爆炸式火山喷发产生的一种重要的灾害类型,数值模拟已成为一个快速有效地确定火山灰扩散和沉积范围的方法。本文根据改进的Suzuki(1983)二维扩散模型,编写了基于Windows环境下的火山灰扩散程序。通过对前人资料的分析,模拟了龙岗火山群中最新火山喷发——金龙顶子火山喷发产生的空降碎屑物扩散范围,与实测结果具有很好的一致性,证实了模型的可靠性和参数的合理性。根据该区10年的风参数,模拟了7021次不同风参数时金龙顶子火山灰的扩散范围,以此制作了火山灰沉积厚度超过1cm和0.5cm时的概率性空降碎屑灾害区划图。本文的研究可为龙岗火山区火山危险性分析和灾害预警与对策提供重要的科学依据。     

太平洋板块俯冲对长白山天池火山的影响

长白山天池火山是我国最具潜在喷发危险的活火山之一,属于远离海沟的陆内火山.太平洋板块平卧于长白山天池火山的下方,其俯冲过程对长白山天池火山形成及活动具有重要意义.本文通过二维热力学耦合的数值模型对海洋板块俯冲的动力学过程进行了模拟,分析了海洋板块俯冲对远离海沟的陆内火山的深部温压条件、速度场、岩浆补给量等的影响.依据模拟结果探讨了太平洋板块对长白山天池火山活动影响的可能性及方式.

     

长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划

在回顾总结了国外火山碎屑流灾害分析模型研究历史的基础上,本文选取了Flow3D模型对我国东北地区长白山天池火山未来大喷发可能产生的火山碎屑流进行了灾害区域划分。以长白山天池火山现代地形为依据,设定了11条未来爆炸式火山喷发时产生的火山碎屑流的可能流动线路。模拟结果表明,在喷发柱高度为10km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为13.7km;在喷发柱高度为20km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为35.4km;在喷发柱高度为30km的情况下,灾害区划最大半径为57.8km。在此基础上,得出了长白山天池火山未来发生中规模、大规模和超大规模火山喷发时火山碎屑流的覆盖范围,完成了我国第一幅长白山天池火山碎屑流灾害区划图。     

长白山天池火山研究进展

长白山天池火山距今４１０５年以来至少发生过两次大规模喷发。其最近的一次大喷发发生于公元８５０～１０４０年间。估计了这次喷发的喷发物体积和Ｃ１，Ｆ，Ｓ等的释放量。数值模拟表明，该次大喷发对全球气候变化产生过重要影响，最近的地球物理探测结果显示，在该火山下面存在地壳和上地幔双层岩浆房。认为该火山现在仍是一座具潜在灾害性大喷发危险的现代活动火山。     

长白山天池火山千年大喷发空降碎屑物的数值模拟

文中以Suzuki火山灰扩散数学模型为基础,考虑了空气参数随海拔高度的变化和不同大小的颗粒由于内含气泡数量的不同而造成的密度不同,计算了不同尺寸颗粒的最终沉降速度和沉降时间。并对喷发柱扩散概率浓度的计算公式进行了修正,对长白山天池火山千年大喷发空降碎屑物的空间分布进行了数值模拟。模拟时根据风速随高度的变化应用3个模型:1)固定风速30m/s;2)风速从地球表面线性增加到对流层顶部,在平流层的速度为对流层顶部风速的0.75倍(又称MW1模型);3)风速在对流层与MW1相同,但是从对流层顶部到20km高处风速线性减小,20km高度以上的风速为对流层顶部的10%(又称MW2模型)。通过与前人的结果进行比较,说明了模型的合理性,最后分析了模拟结果与前人结果之间存在差异的原因     

西马塔海底火山喷发的超远程水声监测

直接观察海底火山是非常困难的, 但监测其喷发产生的声信号可以为长期及近实时的海底火山监测提供一种有效手段.本文利用位于SOFAR声道轴的两套水听器三联体, 对西马塔海底火山开展了为期14个月的超远程水声监测研究.提出了基于加权慢度和聚类分析的火山喷发声信号检测方法, 采用抛物方程模型和绝热简正波-抛物方程模型对火山喷发活动进行了二维和三维的超远程声传播仿真, 火山喷发声接收距离超过9000 km.喷发活动频次和强度估算结果表明, 2009年1月—2010年2月该火山至少发生了37次喷发事件, 喷发活动的强度差异可达10 dB.

     

吉林龙岗火山群金龙顶子火山机构及灾害区划

金龙顶子火山是吉林龙岗火山群全新世喷发规模最大的火山。前人研究表明,该地区火山活动活跃,具有潜在喷发危险。通过对金龙顶子火山机构的解析,确定历史火山灾害类型主要有火山溅落灾害、空降火山渣灾害和熔岩流灾害等。在限定金龙顶子火山未来再次喷发类型和规模与上次相当的条件下,火山溅落灾害局限于火口2km范围内;空降火山渣灾害,距火口2~9km为高危险区,9~14km为中危险区,14~18km为低危险区;使用Volcflow模型对熔岩流进行模拟,结果表明熔岩流主要分布在金龙顶子火山周围低洼地带。     

预报火山喷发

预报是火山学的中心目标。近来对火山喷发的高密度监测得到了一系列完整的时间序列数据，使我们对几次即将发生的喷发及时发布了警报。新技术的应用，诸如宽频带地震学、卫星观测地形变、火山气体野外研究中光谱仪技术、特别是计算机计算能力和运算速度的提高，都正在使预报水平不断提高，并且促进了数据传输、数据分析和模拟技术的改进。火山样品的分析研究、实验推演和理论模拟使得对岩浆系统的动态变化认识正在不断深化，同时给出了能解释火山现象的物理结构。在岩浆房系统演化过程中，随着压力和温度的改变，岩浆要经历复杂的变化。岩浆上升时期脱气和冷却过程中，会导致岩浆结晶、粘度、强度和可压缩度增加，通常是几个数量级。活动岩浆系统也与周围环境发生强烈反应，从而引起地形变、物质破裂和其他效应，诸如地下水循环系统的扰乱和脱气作用。这些过程和反应导致了早于与伴随喷发的地球物理学和现象学的变化。灾害性火山预报正在变得更加定量化，是以对机理过程的物理学理解为基础的。预报正在从经验模式的识别转变为以火山深部动力学模型为基础的预报。高度非线性关系和复杂的力学与动态过程的耦合导致了火山行为的多样性。由于本身固有的不确定性和非线性系统的复杂性，准确预报通常是做不到的。喷发和灾害预报要用考虑到不确定性的可能性术语来表达。     

长白山天池火山晚更新世以来喷发序列研究

<正>长白山天池火山位于吉林省东部的中朝边境线上,是长白山火山系统中3座大型的复式层状火山之一。2002—2006年一系列的火山扰动事件和约1000年前的布里尼式大喷发使天池火山成为我国乃至东北亚地区最具有潜在喷发危险的活火山。同时,鉴于其危险性和火山学研究中的重要样本价值,各国学者对长白山天池火山进行了大量研究,并获得了一系列资料。前人研究认为,天池火山的喷发活动可分为3个阶段,分别为造盾喷发阶段、造锥喷发     

SITE EVALUATION AND VOLCANIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS OF CHINA

Starting from the 1980's of last century, China has launched the national plan of constructing nuclear power plants along the coastline region in eastern China. Currently, in some of these candidate sites, nuclear facilities have been installed and are in operation, but some other nuclear power plants are still under construction or in site evaluation. In 2012 the Atomic Energy Commission issued the specific guide for volcanic hazards in site evaluation for nuclear installations(IAEA Safety Standards Series No. SSG-21), which was prepared under the IAEA's program for safety standards. It supplements and provides recommendations for meeting the requirements for nuclear installations established in the safety requirements publication on site evaluation for nuclear installations in relation to volcanic hazards. To satisfy the safety standards for volcanic hazard, we follow the IAEA SSG-21 guidelines and develop a simple and practical diffusion program in order to evaluate the potential volcanic hazard caused by tephra fallout from the explosive eruptions. In this practice, we carried out a case study of the active volcanoes in north Hainan Province so as to conduct the probabilistic analysis of the potential volcanic hazard in the surrounding region. The Quaternary volcanism in north Hainan Island, so-called Qiongbei volcanic field is characterized by multi periodic activity, in which the most recent eruption is dated at about 4 000a BP. According to IAEA SSG-21, a capable volcano is one for which both 1)a future eruption or related volcanic event is credible; and 2)such an event has the potential to produce phenomena that may affect a site. Therefore, the Qiongbei volcanic field is capable of producing hazardous phenomena that may reach the potential nuclear power plants around. The input parameters for the simulation of tephra fallout from the future eruption of the Qiongbei volcanic field, such as the size, density and shape of the tephra, the bulk volume and column height, the diffusion parameter P(z), wind direction and intensity, were obtained by field investigation and laboratory analysis. We carried out more than 10000 tephra fallout simulations using a statistical dataset of wind profiles which are obtained from China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System(CMDSSS). Tephra fallout hazard probability maps were constructed for tephra thickness threshold of 1cm. Our results show that the tephra produced by the future large-scale explosive eruption from the Qiongbei volcanic field can affect the area in a range about 250km away from the eruption center. In summary, the current key technical parameters related to volcanic activity and potential hazards in IAEA/SSG-21 guidelines, such as 10Ma volcanic life cycle and 1×10^-7 volcanic disaster screening probability threshold, etc. are based on the volcanic activity characteristics in the volcanic island arc system. In consideration of the relatively low level of volcanic activity compared with volcanic island arc system due to the different tectonic background of volcanism in mainland China, the time scale of volcanic disaster assessment in IAEA SSG-21 guideline is relatively high for volcanoes in mainland China. We suggest that the study of "conceptual model" of volcanic activity should be strengthened in future work to prove that there is no credible potential for future eruptions, so that these volcanoes should be screened out at early stage instead of further evaluation by probabilistic model.     

TEPHRA RECORD FROM QUANYANG PEAT OF THE CHANGBAISHAN MILLENNIUM ERUPTION

Tephra, usually produced by explosive eruptions, is deposited rapidly, hence, it can serve as a distinctive and widespread synchronous marker horizon correlating terrestrial, marine and ice core records. The tephra from Changbaishan Millennium eruption, a widely distributed tephra, is an important marker bed across the Japan Sea, Japan Islands and even in the Greenland ice cores 9000km away from volcanic vent. In this study, a discrete tephra was identified in the Quanyang peat~45km northeast to the Changbaishan volcano. Radiocarbon ¹⁴ C dating on the plant remains constrains an age of 886-1013calAD(95.4%)to the tephra layer, which can correspond to the Millennium eruption of Changbaishan in time. In addition, there was no similar volcanic eruption in the surrounding areas except Changbaishan at the same time. This tephra shows rhyolitic glass shards major element compositions similar to those rhyolitic tephra from Millennium eruption. This study illustrates that tephra from Millennium eruption has been transported to Quanyang peat~45km northwest to the Changbaishan volcano. Additionally, the diameter of the pumice lapilli is up to 0.3cm, implying that the tephra must be transported more distal away from Quanyang peat and formed a widely distributed isochronic layer. Glass geochemistry of the Quanyang tephra, different from the distal tephra recorded at Sihailongwan, Japan, and Greenland ice, shows a close affinity to the pyroclastic flow deposits of the Millennium eruption while not from fall deposits. This may indicate that distribution of the Millennium eruption of Changbaishanin in different directions may be controlled by different stages of eruption. This layer with well-defined annual results can be used to optimize the chronological framework of the corresponding sedimentary environment, thus facilitating more accurate discussion of corresponding environmental changes, which can achieve the contrast of the ancient climate records in the whole Northeast China-Japan and arctic regions.     

An extremely large magnitude eruption close to the Plio-Pleistocene boundary: reconstruction of eruptive style and history of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra, central Japan

An extremely large magnitude eruption of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra, close to the Plio-Pleistocene boundary, central Japan, spread volcanic materials widely more than 290,000 km² reaching more than 300 km from the probable source. Characteristics of the distal air-fall ash (>150 km away from the vent) and proximal pyroclastic deposits are clarified to constrain the eruptive style, history, and magnitude of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda eruption.Eruptive history had five phases. Phase 1 is phreatoplinian eruption producing >105 km³ of volcanic materials. Phases 2 and 3 are plinian eruption and transition to pyroclastic flow. Plinian activity also occurred in phase 4, which ejected conspicuous obsidian fragments to the distal locations. In phase 5, collapse of eruption column triggered by phase 4, generated large pyroclastic flow in all directions and resulted in more than 250–350 km³ of deposits. Thus, the total volume of this tephra amounts over 380–490 km³. This indicates that the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra is greater than 7. The huge thickness of reworked volcaniclastic deposits overlying the fall units also attests to the tremendous volume of eruptive materials of this tephra.Numerous ancient tephra layers with large volume have been reported worldwide, but sources and eruptive history are often unknown and difficult to determine. Comparison of distal air-fall ashes with proximal pyroclastic deposits revealed eruption style, history and magnitude of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra. Hence, recognition of the Ebisutoge-Fukuda tephra, is useful for understanding the volcanic activity during the Pliocene to Pleistocene, is important as a boundary marker bed, and can be used to interpret the global environmental and climatic impact of large magnitude eruptions in the past.     

Evaluating suitability of a tephra dispersal model as part of a risk assessment framework

In volcanic risk assessment it is necessary to determine the appropriate level of sophistication for a given predictive model within the contexts of multiple sources of uncertainty and coupling between models. A component of volcanic risk assessment for the proposed radioactive waste repository at Yucca Mountain (Nevada, USA) involves prediction of dispersal of contaminated tephra during violent Strombolian eruptions and the subsequent transport of that tephra toward a hypothetical individual via surface processes. We test the suitability of a simplified model for volcanic plume transport and fallout tephra deposition (ASHPLUME) coupled to a surface sediment-transport model (FAR) that calculates the redistribution of tephra, and in light of inherent uncertainties in the system. The study focuses on two simplifying assumptions in the ASHPLUME model: 1) constant eruptive column height and 2) constant wind speed and direction during an eruption. Variations in tephra dispersal resulting from unsteady column height and wind conditions produced variations up to a factor of two in the concentration of tephra in sediment transported to the control population. However, the effects of watershed geometry and terrain, which control local remobilization of tephra, overprint sensitivities to eruption parameters. Because the combination of models used here shows limited sensitivity to the actual details of ash fall, a simple fall model suffices to estimate tephra mass delivered to the hypothetical individual.     

Clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides for correlating the ash from Changbaishan Millennium eruption

Volcanic glass compositions and tephra layer age are critical for anchoring their sources and correlating among different sites; however, such work may be imprecise when the tephra has varied compositions. The ash from Changbaishan Millennium eruption (940s AD), a widely distributed tephra layer, has been detected in the far-east areas of Russia, the Korean Peninsula, Japan, and in Greenland ice cores. There are some debates on the presence of this tephra from sedimentary archives to the west of Changbaishan volcano, such as lake and peat sediments in the Longgang volcanic field. In this paper, major element compositions for clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides were performed on proximal tephra from Changbaishan and the Millennium eruption ash record in Lake Sihailongwan. Clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides microlites from Sihailongwan show augite- ferroaugite and titanmagnetite compositions, similar to those from dark pumice in Changbaishan proximal tephra, but different from the light grey pumice, which has ferrohedenbergite and ilmenite microlite compositions. This result implies that the tephra recorded in Sihailongwan was mainly from the trachytic eruptive phase of the Millennium eruption, and the rhyolitic eruptive phase made a relatively small contribution to this area. Analyzing clinopyroxene and Fe-Ti oxides microlites is a new method for correlating tephra layers from Changbaishan Millennium eruption.     

The interaction between volcanic gases and tephra: Fluorine adhering to tephra of the 1970 hekla eruption

The mass distribution and sorting of tephra produced in the plinian phase of the 1970 Hekla eruption was controlled by the particle size distribution, the height of the eruption column, and velocity of transport. Near the volcano the mass distribution of soluble fluorine was controlled by particle size of the deposits, but approaches the mass distribution of the tephra at longer distances. Adsorbed soluble fluorine reaches a maximum at a distance from the volcano determined by the velocity of the transporting medium.SEM studies show the soluble fluorine to be chemically adsorbed on the surface of tephra particles. The adsorption is shown by experiment to occur at temperatures below 600°C in the cooling eruption column. Evaluation of reactions in the eruption column leads to the conclusion that formation of water soluble compounds adhering to tephra is principally controlled by environmental factors and to a lesser degree by the composition of the volcanic gas phase.     

火山空降碎屑灾害预测软件包的研制

简述了火山空降碎屑灾害的危害性 ,指出研制火山空降碎屑灾害预测软件包的实际意义。介绍了软件的主要结构框图、软件设计的基本思路和结构设计时的几点考虑。介绍了在VisualBasic6 .0平台下 ,碎屑粒径参数、岩浆黏度、结晶压力、喷出压力、给定时间段和特定区域的各高度层风参数、岩浆动力学参数、喷出物总量、抛射体分布、坍塌阶段碎屑分布和扩散阶段碎屑分布计算等各程序的主要结构及主要功能。介绍了在Mapinfor 6 .0平台下软件的主要功能。给出了实现该软件包各项功能的理论基础和科学依据 ,并展示了 1980年 5月 18日美国圣海伦斯火山喷发的空降碎屑分布计算的实例 ,同时把计算结果与实际观测数据进行了对比 ,从而使模型的改进工作和软件的正确性得到了验证。最后 ,对软件存在的缺陷和需要进一步改进之处进行了细致的分析     

长白山天池火山监测与灾害防御

对吉林省长白山天池火山历史喷发灾害进行了分析,指出了火山灾害可能带来的后果,并根据长白山天池火山现状和火山灾害特点．提出了火山灾害防御对策。     

大兴安岭焰山、高山火山——一种新的火山喷发型式

在野外地质资料基础上,利用火山形态学方法,探讨了大兴安岭焰山、高山火山的喷发型式。结果表明,大兴安岭哈拉哈河-绰尔河火山群中的焰山和高山火山不同于斯通博利式喷发形成的火山,其早期爆破喷发的火山碎屑形成火山渣锥、空降火山碎屑席和小型火山碎屑流,晚期溢出大量熔岩。两火山具有较高大的锥体(标高200～300m以上),在结构上,松散火山砾、火山弹等构成下部的降落锥,熔结集块岩构成上部的溅落锥。由火山砾和火山灰组成的空降火山碎屑席分布在火山锥体周围。两火山溢出的熔岩经历了从结壳熔岩→翻花石→渣状熔岩的演变。根据喷发产物可推断焰山和高山火山具有以下喷发特征:爆破喷发形成持续的喷发柱→斯通博利式喷发→熔岩喷泉喷溢,其中以持续时间较长的喷发柱区别于典型的斯通博利式喷发。类似焰山、高山火山的喷发特征,在龙岗第四纪火山群、镜泊湖全新世火山群中也都有个例,这是中国大陆火山作用中一种新的喷发型式。