Tide gauge records,water level rise,and subsidence in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

Long-term water level changes in the northern Gulf of Mexico were examined using tide gauge records for this century. Strong coherence exists between the annual mean water changes at Galveston, Texas, and (1) the relatively geologically-stable west coast of Florida, (2) global mean sea level, and 93) the subsiding Louisiana coast. Water levels at the Galveston gauge, one of the longest records (81 yr), have risen steadily, but not accelerated over the long-term. The apparent acceleration of water rise in the recent two decades is within the historical pattern, and is probably driven by regional or global, but not local climatic factors. Because eustatic sea level has risen steadily this century, the analysis supports the conclusion that regional geologic subsidence has not varied significantly over the tide gauge record (1909–1988). Variations in the estimates of subsidence in the surface layers are generally consistent with the generally accepted understanding of the geology of deltaic processes on this coast.     

新世纪上海地区相对海平面变化影响因素及预测方法

针对传统相对海平面变化分析方法均将理论海平面变化和地面沉降进行的叠加分析,本文讨论和分析了近20年来全球理论海平面上升速率加快背景下的区域海平面变化速率,利用灰色线性回归组合模型预测上海地区海平面变化趋势。考虑了上海地面沉降发展的新特点,以及长江流域来沙显著减少和河口大型工程建设对上海地区相对海平面变化的影响。在流域来沙量显著减少但来水量变化不大情况下,流域大坝的坝下冲刷使得河槽刷深,河口水位降低,同时长江口深水航道整治工程和促淤围垦工程束狭入海口,使得潮位站水位发生变化,两者的综合效应是目前研究长江口相对海平面变化时必须考虑的重要因素。     

Land subsidence and sea level rise on the Atlantic Coastal Plain of the United States

Land subsidence due to decline in head in confined aquifers, related to municipal and industrial water pumpage, is widespread in the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Although not a major engineering problem, subsidence greatly complicates adjustment of precise leveling and distorts prediction of future sea-level rise. When preconsolidation stress equivalent to about 20 m of head decline is exceeded compaction of fine-grained sediments of the aquifer system begins, and continues until a new head equilibrium is attained between fine and coarse units. The ratio subsidence/head decline is quite consistent, ranging from 0.0064 in southeastern Virginia to 0.0018 at Dover, Delaware and Atlantic City, New Jersey. Higher values are related to the occurrence of montmorillonite as the predominant clay mineral present. Review of tide gauge records indicates that gauges not affected by land subsidence or other local secular effects have been sinking relative to sea level since 1940 at rates averaging about 2.5 mm/yr, of which 0.6 mm/yr is ascribed to glacio-isostatic adjustment to unloading of North America resulting from melting of late Pleistocene glaciers, and about 0.9 mm/yr is ascribed to steric sea-level rise related to ocean warming. The residual 1 mm/yr of relative sea-level rise is not well understood, but may be related to regional tectonic subsidence of the Atlantic coast.     

环渤海海平面上升与三角洲湿地保护

环渤海地区三角洲是我国滨海重要的湿地发育区,在淤泥质滩地型湿地上发育着众多的动、植物群落,成为若干珍稀水禽的栖息地。从地面垂直形变与潮位资料等分析,黄河三角洲和辽河三角洲的地面下降速率为3～4mm/a和3.5～4.5mm/a,而相对海平面上升速率为45～5.5mm/a和5～6mm/a,预计至2050年总体的相对海平面上升量可达40～55cm。海平面上升对三角洲湿地的影响首先是直接淹没大片农田、油井和市区,其次是加剧海岸线的侵蚀与后退,还有风暴潮与洪涝灾害的加剧。针对三角洲湿地生态系统所面临的生态风险与人为活动干扰,有必要采取更加科学合理的保护与开发模式。本文介绍了生境更新与湿地调整的管理策略,以及淤长型滨海湿地的滚动开发模式。交替采用“渐进”与“跃进”的滚动开发,可保持湿地总量的动态平衡,有利于三角洲的可持续发展。     

未来江苏中部沿海相对海面变化预测

相对海面变化是由全球绝对海面变化和区域性地面和海面因素共同控制。通过对江苏沿海近几十年来的潮位记录的分析,得出江苏沿海近期的相对海面变化速率。在此基础上根据近期绝对海面的变化速率计算出局地因素对江苏沿海相对海面变化的贡献量。在假设未来局地因素影响基本不变的前提下与IPCC对未来100年绝对海面的变化趋势 进行叠加,预测了江苏沿海未来相对海面变化的趋势。结果显示,江苏中部沿海海面在2000-2100年的100年间将上升15～152 cm,较IPCC对同期全球平均海平面上升的预测结果大的多。最后就区域性海面气压对相对海面变化的影响进行了讨论。     

碳酸盐岩台地三级层序界面的讨论

由于碳酸盐岩沉积作用对海平面变化具特有的敏感性及台地类型存在多样性，碳酸盐岩沉积背景下的三级层序界面应在考虑海平面变化阶段、海平面下降幅度和台地暴露程序基础上扩展为四类。其中沉没性质的ＳＲ４常具台地终止性意义，小幅度海平面下降造成的ＳＢ３是台地演化过程中最常见的，这些层序界面可依沉积、地震及叠加的成岩标志加以识别。     

塔里木盆地北部寒武纪海平面变化研究

在以往的沉积学研究中，常常用剖面中的相对水深变化来讨论海平面的变化规律。本文通过对塔里木盆地北部寒武纪上超点变化曲线与肖尔布拉克地区寒武系露头剖面中相对水深变化曲线的对比研究发现，上超点变化曲线与相对水深变化曲线具有明显的差异，前者在寒武纪呈持续上升趋势，而后者除早期有一快速上升外，总体呈持续下降趋势，这说明相对水深变化虽与海平面变化存在着本质的联系，但单凭露头剖面中相对水深变化的研究是难以对海平面变化作出正确估价的，还必须综合考虑基底沉降、沉积物供给等多种因素的影响。计算机模拟结果也证实了，在碳酸盐台地的浅水处，当基底沉降速率较低时，无论是海平面上升还是下降时期，相对水深均呈现持续下降趋势。为了能从露头剖面的地层层序中来了解海平面的变化规律，本文应用作者改进后的Ｆｉｓｃｈｅｒ图解和数学方法对肖尔布拉克寒武系剖面进行了海平面变化的重建，结果发现，它们与上超点变化曲线的变化趋势完全一致。这充分说明了海平面变化对沉积层序的控制作用，同时也告诉我们，不能简单地利用露头剖面中的相对水深变化来研究地质历史时期的海平面变化规律。只有在排除了不同沉积背景上基底沉降速率和沉积物供给速率对沉积层序的控制效应后，才能从露头剖面?     

近4万年渤海西岸海侵时古海面的现代标高对比研究*

近4万年以来,相应于两次高太阳辐射暖湿期渤海西岸曾经两次海水泛陆事件,即40~28kaB.P.与10~4kaB.P.海侵事件。文章基于众多钻孔海相层中有孔虫、介形类等海相微体生物化石的组合特征恢复海水深度,重建了海侵最大时的古海面的现代标高。结果显示: 40~28kaB.P.海侵,海面的现代标高最高可达-11~-5m;10~4kaB.P.海侵则为2~3m。后者同众多研究所认为的中全新世存在高海面,海面高度为2~3m的结论大致吻合,前者则与全球气候尚处在间冰阶,冰川部分消融,世界洋面处在-50m的大背景不协调。而辽东与山东半岛沿海众多钻孔揭示,40~28kaB.P.渤海地区并没有高于-50~-20m海面存在的证据。通过区域环境的综合分析,认为40~28kaB.P.渤海西岸的海侵,是早玉木冰期持续4~5万年之久的冰期低海面环境,这种特殊的环境使现代渤海西岸的大部分区域远离沉积环境,成为冲刷侵蚀区,这种效应叠加在冰期边缘海式构造下沉与弧后盆地性质的构造下沉背景之上造成区域性异常地面低洼;渤海西岸异常地面低洼在间冰阶全球趋暖,冰川型海侵的过程中形成的区域性强烈"视"海侵(指示当时海侵时海水深度很大,而不是海水的陆泛范围大)。     

论地质历史中区域构造沉降史与海平面变化

区域构造沉降史和海平面变化是层序地层学中起决定作用的两个主参数。运用“反剥法”。（back-stripping）建立了研究区内泥盆纪至三叠纪盆地构造沉降地球动力学曲线模型,识别出盆地演化从被动大陆边缘、成熟被动大陆边缘、周缘前陆盆地到后造山前陆盆地的演化序列。同时,运用沉积体系域、地震及碳氧同位素信息反演编制了二叠-三叠纪海平面变化轨迹曲线,研究区内海平面变化与全球海平面升降具同步效应,至晚三叠世研究区海平面变化表现为上升趋势,而全球海平面变化总体处于海平面下降阶段,这与前陆挠曲变形和造山俯冲有关。     

Coastal Inundation due to Sea Level Rise in the Pearl River Delta,China

This paper examines the increased potential risk of tidalinundations in the Pearl River delta, China, due to futurerises in sea level. The research is based on tidal recordsof 54 tide gauges distributed across the delta plain, andemploys mathematical calculations to predict potentialrises of water level in different parts of the delta undera number of flood scenarios. After assessing a 72-yeartidal record of Hong Kong and factors such as estuarinebackwater effects and long-term geological subsidence,it suggests that a 30 cm rise in relative sea level at themouth of the estuary is possible by 2030. Based on theprediction and five freshwater discharge scenarios, thepotential impacts on water levels across the delta plain arecalculated. Three zones are identified as least affected,heavily affected and severely affected. The impacts arealso translated into return periods of water level. It issuggested that in a large part of the delta plain, returnperiods will be shortened and hence will be increasinglyvulnerable to tidal inundation. Finally, managementimplications are discussed along with assessment ofthe adequacy of the existing tidal flood defences, as well asevaluation of the cost implications if they are to be improved.     

Relative sea‐level change and postglacial isostatic adjustment along the coast of south Devon,United Kingdom

Previous sea‐level studies suggest that southwest Britain has the fastest subsiding coastline in the United Kingdom, but tide‐gauge data, GPS and gravity measurements and geophysical models show little evidence of anomalous subsidence in this region. In this paper we present 15 new sea‐level index points from four coastal barrier systems in south Devon. Eight are from compaction‐free basal sediments and others were corrected for autocompaction. Our data suggest that relative sea level along the south Devon coastline has risen by 21 ± 4 m during the past 9000 years. Sea‐level rise slowed during the middle and late Holocene and a rise of 8 ± 1 m has occurred since ca. 7000 cal. yr BP. Anomalous ages for many rejected points are attributed to sediment reworking during barrier transgression. The relative sea‐level history during the early and middle Holocene shows a good fit with geophysical model predictions, but the geological and modelled data diverge in the later Holocene. Unlike the geophysical models, sea‐level index points cannot differentiate between late Holocene relative sea‐level histories of south Devon and southwest Cornwall. It is suggested that this discrepancy can be resolved by obtaining additional high‐quality sea‐level index points covering the past 4000 years. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of glacial isostatic adjustment upon current sea level variations in the Mediterranean

Present-day sea level variations in the Mediterranean depend on various factors, including recent climatic forcing, tectonic activity, anthropogenic effects, and glacio-isostatic adjustment. The latter is governed by mantle rheology and the spatio–temporal distribution of the late-Pleistocene ice sheets and it is expected to produce a long-wavelength pattern of sea level variations across the Mediterranean, mostly determined by the response of the solid earth and of the geoid to loading effects of melt water since the end of deglaciation. Modeling glacio-isostatic effects in this region is necessary for a correct interpretation of tide gauge and GPS time-series, and thereby to constrain both the present-day climate-related sea level rise and regional or local geological, tectonic and human-driven displacements. By an exhaustive exploration of the parameter space of mantle rheology and ice sheet chronologies, in this work we outline upper and lower bounds on the current rate of sea level variation associated with glacial isostatic adjustment in the Mediterranean. This may contribute to a full assessment of coastal vulnerability by sea level rise on a regional and local scale.     

Sea-level change during the Holocene in Sardinia and in the northeastern Adriatic (central Mediterranean Sea) from archaeological and geomorphological data

We provide new data on relative sea-level change from the late Holocene for two locations in the central Mediterranean: Sardinia and NE Adriatico. They are based on precise measures of submerged archaeological and tide notch markers that are good indicators of past sea-level elevation. Twelve submerged archaeological sites were studied: six, aged between 2.5 and 1.6 ka BP, located along the Sardinia coast, and a further six, dated ∼2.0 ka BP, located along the NE Adriatic coast (Italy, Slovenia and Croatia). For Sardinia, we also use beach rock and core data that can be related to Holocene sea level. The elevations of selected significant archaeological markers were measured with respect to the present sea level, applying corrections for tide and atmospheric pressure values at the time of surveys. The interpretation of the functional heights related to sea level at the time of their construction provides data on the relative changes between land and sea; these data are compared with predictions derived from a new glacio–hydro-isostatic model associated with the Last Glacial cycle. Sardinia is tectonically relatively stable and we use the sea-level data from this island to calibrate our models for eustatic and glacio–hydro-isostatic change. The results are consistent with those from another tectonically stable site, the Versilia Plain of Italy. The northeast Adriatic (Italy, Slovenia and Croatia) is an area of subsidence and we use the calibrated model results to separate out the isostatic from the tectonic contributions. This indicates that the Adriatic coast from the Gulf of Trieste to the southern end of Istria has tectonically subsided by ∼1.5 m since Roman times.     

利用T/P海面高度数据校验验潮站地面升降的初步研究

利用TOPEX/Poseidon卫星1993—2001年的海面测高资料提取了上海和江苏临近海域这9年间的绝对海面变化信息，并与该区域6个验潮站的同时段潮位记录数据进行了对比分析。研究结果表明根据T/P海面高度数据提取的月均海面变化曲线与同海区验潮站测得的同期海面变化过程具有相当好的一致性和同步性，但是根据潮位序列得出的9年平均海面上升速率值均大于根据卫星资料得出的上升速率值。由于卫星测高数据是严格建立在地心坐标基础上的，因此二者的差异在很大程度上应与验潮站所在地点的地面沉降有关。值得注意的是经过地面沉降校正的上海吴淞验潮站数据得出的9年平均海面上升速率值仅比卫星测高结果大0. 43 mm/a，而江苏省射阳河口至三条巷之间5个未经地面沉降校正的验潮站得出海面上升速率与卫星测高结果之间的差值在0.95～3.01 cm/a之间，并呈向北递增趋势。这一对比结果反映该岸段近期的地面沉降速率可能有自南向北增大的趋势，其量值有可能达到年厘米量级。     

Sea‐Level Surges in the Northern Adriatic and Their Impact on the “Functional Height” Estimation of Archaeological Markers

Sea‐level surges caused by sirocco wind are frequent in the northern Adriatic. Added to the local spring‐tide amplitude of about 40 cm, they should not be disregarded when estimating the elevation of maritime archaeological structures in relation to their function at the time of their construction. Based on the statistical analysis of the frequency and distribution of hourly sea‐level surges at Trieste, Rovinj, and Venice, realistic estimates of functional heights for sea‐level reconstructions to be applied to archaeological remains of coastal structures, e.g., fish tanks, appear to be approximately 120–130 cm near Trieste and around 95–105 cm in the Rovinj area. These exceed the value of 60 cm recently proposed by a group of archaeologists. Such underestimation tends to lower by about half a meter (in relation to certain previous estimates) sea‐level position in Roman times along the coast of Istria. The sea level during this period should be derived from more accurate sea‐level indicators such as marine biological remains preserved on archaeological structures.     

A new Holocene sea-level curve for the southern North Sea

A new sea-level curve (MHW, mean high water level) for the southern North Sea is presented, spanning the last 10 000 years and based on new data recently obtained along the German coast. The 118 dates were selected from basal as well as intercalated peats of the Holocene sequence and archaeological dates from the last 3000 years. Because of different MHW levels along the German North Sea coast, all data were corrected to the standard tide gauge at Wilhelmshaven to make them comparable. Special advantages of this area for sea-level reconstructions are negligible tectonic and isostatic subsidence and the absence of coastal barrier systems that might have mitigated or masked sea-level changes. Changes of water level had therefore immediate consequences for the facies and could be dated exactly. The chronostratigraphic Calais-Dunkirk system has been improved and adapted to the new data. Altogether seven regressions (R 1-R 7) have been identified, each of them characterized by a distinct decline in sea level. These fluctuations are in accord with the evidence from other parts of the North Sea region. A draft of former North Sea shorelines is presented on the basis of this sea-level curve.     

Holocene relative sea-level changes and vertical movements along the Italian and Istrian coastlines

Published and new data exist for relative sea-level change for 105 locations (127 samples) during the late Holocene, along the Italian (and Istrian) coasts. These data, compared with predictions (derived from two different models associated with the last glacial cycle) allowed the calculation of the tectonic vertical movements. They are based on precise measures of geomorphological and archaeological markers between 0.4 and 12.6 ka cal. BP, sampled at elevations between +7 and −51 m. In order to decipher the broad pattern of Holocene tectonic vertical movements along the Italian coastline, these data were compared with predicted sea-level curves using the most recent models published for the Mediterranean sea. Tectonic rates varied from −4.85 mm/a, in a core at Sybaris, to 5 mm/a, in the volcanic areas of Pozzuoli and Pantelleria. New MIS 5.5 (125 ka) data, mostly from the Venetian plain, are reported. In particular the depth of the base of MIS 5.5 paralic deposits found in four cores near Venezia provides a mean subsidence of 0.62 mm/a. New, precise mass spectrometer U-Th analyses on Cladocora layers from the bottom of a long core (named ENEA), indicate older ages (195.7 ± 1.6 and 161.2 ± 1.2 ka, respectively), relative to the published MIS 5.5 ages, which were based on alpha-counting U-Th data.Instrumental data obtained from tide gauges and repeated levelling measurements from the NE Adriatic and Sicily are also considered. These methods have one great advantage with respect to continuous GPS measurements and the satellite altimetric observations, in that a much greater time span is available. Although the altimetric measurements are available for 16 years, and the GPS for less than a decade, repeated levelling lines cover up to 50 years and tide gauge observations in some cases to 100 years or more. The greater time span allows for more stable differential rate estimates. The repeated levelling shows that the plain east of Mestre is subsiding (to −4 mm/a). The Messina tidal gauge demonstrates a total coseismic and post-seismic subsidence of 77 cm associated with the event of 1908, the post-seismic phase lasting for at least 13 years. The Reggio Calabria tidal station points to an uplift of this station relative to Palermo in the order of 1–2 mm/a.     

Alexandria-Nile Delta coast,Egypt: update and future projection of relative sea-level rise

Previous studies have indicated that the Nile River deltaic plain is vulnerable to a number of aspects, including beach erosion, inundation, and relatively high rates of land subsidence. This issue motivates an update and analysis of new tide-gauge records, from which relative sea-level changes can be obtained. Estimated rates from five tide gauges are variable in terms of magnitude and temporal trend of rising sea level. Analysis of historical records obtained from tide gauges at Alexandria, Rosetta, Burullus, Damietta, and Port Said show a continuous rise in mean sea level fluctuating between 1.8 and 4.9 mm/year; the smaller rate occurs at the Alexandria harbor, while the higher one at the Rosetta promontory. These uneven spatial and temporal trends of the estimated relative sea-level rise (RSLR) are interpreted with reference to local geological factors. In particular, Holocene sediment thickness, subsidence rate and tectonism are correlated with the estimated rates of relative sea-level change. From the relatively weak correlation between them, we presume that tectonic setting and earthquakes, both recent and historical ones, contribute more to accelerated RSLR than that of dewatering and compression/dewatering of Holocene mud underlying the Nile Delta plain. As a result, large areas of the coastal plain have been subsided, but some sectors have been uplifted in response to tectonic activities of thick underlying older strata. Projection of averaged sea-level rise trend reveals that not all the coastal plain of the Nile Delta and Alexandria is vulnerable to accelerated sea-level rise at the same level due to wide variability of the land topography, that includes low-lying areas, high-elevated coastal ridges and sand dunes, accretionary beaches, and artificially protective structures. Interaction of all aspects (tectonic regime, topography, geomorphology, erosion rate, and RSLR rate) permitted to define risk areas much vulnerable to impacts of sea incursion due to accelerated sea-level rise.     

Land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal: potential damage of subsidence and sea level rise in southern New Jersey, USA

 Land subsidence due to groundwater withdrawal combined with a global sea level rise creates a serious environmental problem in the coastal region. Groundwater withdrawal results in fluid pressure change in the layers. The pressure change in the layers induces both elastic and inelastic land compaction. The elastic compaction can be recovered if the water level rises again and inelastic compaction becomes permanent. Groundwater response to barometric pressure change is used to estimate the elastic compaction in this study. The storativity, specific storage and other layer and hydrological information are used to estimate the inelastic compaction of the layers due to fluid withdrawal. The discussed methods are applied to estimate and predict the subsidence potentials resulting from overdrafting of the groundwater in the southern New Jersey. The estimated subsidence is about 2–3 cm near the location of monitoring wells in Atlantic, Camden, Cumberland and Cape May Counties over the past 20 years. If the current trend of water-level drop continues, the average subsidence in southern New Jersey in the vicinity of some monitoring wells will be about 3 cm in the next 20 years. The rise of global sea level is about 2 mm/year on average. Because of the very gentle slope in southern NJ, the combination of subsidence and sea level rise will translate into a potentially substantial amount of land loss in the coastal region in each 20 year period. This combination will also accelerate the coastal flooding frequency and the erosion rate of the New Jersey coastal plain, and pose a serious threat to the coastal economy. Received: 15 December 1997 · Accepted: 30 June 1998     

A modelling approach for estimating the frequency of sea level extremes and the impact of climate change in southeast Australia

An efficient approach for evaluating storm tide return levels along the southeastern coastline of Australia under present and future climate conditions is described. Storm surge height probabilities for the present climate are estimated using hydrodynamic model simulations of surges identified in recent tide gauge records. Tides are then accounted for using a joint probability method. Storm tide height return levels obtained in this way are similar to those obtained from the direct analysis of tide gauge records. The impact of climate change on extreme sea levels is explored by adding a variety of estimates of mean sea level rise and by forcing the model with modified wind data. It is shown that climate change has the potential to reduce average recurrence intervals of present climate 1 in 100 year storm tide levels along much of the northern Bass Strait coast to between 1 and 2 years by the year 2070.