国际温室气体减排情景方案比较分析

在整理、介绍主要国际组织、国家、研究机构和一些学者所提出的温室气体减排情景方案、减排目标和设想的基础上,对当前国际上主要的温室气体减排情景方案的温室气体减排目标、大气温室气体浓度目标和温度控制目标进行了归纳、比较和综合分析。研究结果表明：①国际组织和主要国家对温度升高的控制目标总体以2℃为主,即到21世纪末,将大气温度控制在不高于工业革命前2℃的范围内;②国际组织和主要国家的温室气体减排方案一般都倾向于在2050年将大气温室气体浓度控制在450×10^-6~550×10^-6CO₂e（二氧化碳当量）的范围内,但各个方案中有关具体的减排责任分配、减排措施和减排量分歧仍然较大;③在确定温室气体减排目标和减排配额时,国际组织和主要国家一般都按照“共同但有区别”的原则,倾向于为发达国家制定减排目标,但也有个别方案认为发展中国家也应承担量化的减排义务。     

Brief review on climate change and tropical peatlands

In 2008, the very extensive tropical peats were estimated to be about 182 million ha spanning South America, Asia and Africa. About 20.3%(36.9 million ha) of this area exist in Asia. Peats are classified based on their degree of decomposition, namely Fibrists, Hemists, Saprists and Folists. This makes them different in characteristics. The activities of microorganisms vary in different types of peat due to, for example, the sapric layer of well humified peat can provide water and food to microorganisms during heat stress. In another scenario, deeper peat is older and typically has lower levels of labile carbon to provide substrate for microbes compared to surface peat. A complete understanding of the microbial communities in different layers of peat is essential as microorganisms play major roles in peat decomposition and are important to ecosystem processes. These peats are a very important global carbon(C)store or reserve and could severely impact climate change if not managed well. Peatlands can store as much as 40 to 90 Gt C. Mis-management of peats could severely impact the environment particularly the emission of carbon into the atmosphere. For instance, clearing of peatlands using fire has been reported to release an estimated 88 t C ha~(-1) to the atmosphere. There are several factors which influence the environmental consequences of tropical peat especially in relation to climate change. The main influences are:(i) changes in temperature,(ii) changes in precipitation or rainfall,(iii) changes in atmospheric composition, and(iv) fire and haze. This paper is a brief review on these four influences in relation to climate change. It is apparent from the brief review that there is a need for continued short and long-term research to better understand tropical peats and how they affect our climate. This will hopefully provide the basis for predicting better what could happen under various scenarios.     

国际主要温室气体排放数据集比较分析研究

温室气体排放数据集是国际上开展温室气体排放评价与减排责任谈判的数据基础。对国际上温室气体排放的数据集进行了细致的调研和分析,收集并较为全面深入地比较分析了美国能源信息管理局（EIA）数据集、世界资源研究所（WRI）数据集、美国橡树岭国家实验室CO2信息分析中心（CDIAC）数据集、联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）数据集和OECD国际能源署（IEA）数据集等5个全球尺度的国际主要温室气体数据集的主要信息。概括了这5个国际主要温室气体数据集的开发机构概况、分析了数据集的详细特征、定量比较了这些数据集的可用性与差异。     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">An Inconvenient Truth</Emphasis>: the scientific argument

The movie An Inconvenient Truth is a powerful portrayal of global warming and its impacts. The main scientific argument presented in the movie is for the most part consistent with the weight of scientific evidence, but with some of the main points needing updating, correction, or qualification. The detailed argument relies almost entirely on past and current evidence and neglects almost all information that can be gained from computer models, perhaps because such information would be difficult for a lay audience to grasp, believe, or connect with emotionally. This places an undue weight on current events as signs of ongoing climate change: some such events are apparently not related at all to climate change, while for other specific events the role of global warming is difficult or impossible to establish.     

Global methane emission through mud volcanoes and its past and present impact on the Earth's climate

Mud volcanism is an abundant, global phenomenon whereby fluid-rich, low-density sediments extrude both on land and offshore. Methane, which generally exceeds 90 vol% of the gas phase, is emitted at high rates during and after emplacement of the mud domes and is known for its high global warming potential (GWP). This comprehensive estimate of the annual contribution of mud volcano degassing assesses the significance of mud volcanism for the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. A first-order estimate for the earlier, pre-anthropogenic volume of methane released through mud volcanoes further supports their profound effect on the Earth's climate since at least the Paleozoic (570 Ma).     

矽卡岩化作用排碳到大气中的途径SCIEI北大核心CSCD

鉴于大陆岩浆弧上盘广泛分布有碳酸盐岩,岩体上升侵位过程使其碳通量明显的高于洋内岛弧,从而有可能影响着地质历史长时间尺度(百万年)的气候变化。陆弧碳的排放可分为两部分,一部分是与喷出岩相关的火山作用,另一部分是与侵入岩相关的脱碳过程。侵入岩的体量一般是喷出岩体量的10倍以上,由此与侵入岩有关的脱碳作用释放的碳通量不可忽视,可能类似与喷出岩有关的火山作用释放的碳通量甚至更大。火山作用能够将气体直接排入大气中,因此在以往的工作中研究较为充分。但与侵入岩相关的脱碳过程如:矽卡岩化,发生在地下,关于地下脱碳过程如何将碳释放到大气中还缺少详细的工作。本文,通过对比研究火山地区和非火山地区与侵入岩相关的深部脱碳过程,发现深部碳可以通过区域断层系统、地下水系统和热泉、火山通道、隐爆角砾岩筒、高频率的岩浆热液事件等途径瞬时地释放进入大气。通过初步估算,发现单个矽卡岩矿化事件所产生的二氧化碳通量(0.02~0.2Mt/yr)能够与目前地球绝大部分的普通单个火山的碳通量(<0.5Mt/yr)类比。因此岩浆深部脱碳过程对大气的影响至少与火山相当,其对气候的影响不可忽视。     

A new estimate of global methane flux from onshore and shallow submarine mud volcanoes to the atmosphere

A new estimate of global methane emission into the atmosphere from mud volcanoes (MVs) on land and shallow seafloor is presented. The estimate, considered a lower limit, is based on 1) new direct measurements of flux, including both venting of methane and diffuse microseepage around craters and vents, and 2) a classification of MV sizes in terms of area (km²) based on a compilation of data from 120 MVs. The methane flux to the atmosphere is conservatively estimated between 6 and 9 Mt y^–1. This emission from MVs is 3–6% of the natural methane sources and is comparable with ocean and hydrate sources, officially considered in the atmospheric methane budget. The total geologic source, including MVs, seepage from seafloor, microseepage in hydrocarbon-prone areas and geothermal sources, would amount to 35–45 Mt y^–1. The authors believe it is time to add this parameter in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change official tables of atmospheric methane sources.GEM     

温室效应变化及其地理意义

在过去100年间，全球平均气温上升0．3－0．5℃，这种增温幅度与温度效应的预报结果相一致。也与气候变化的自然幅度相一致，由于温室气体效应，现代的气候变化与过去气候变化已有本质不同，经过进一步研究，多数科学家认为，全球变暖主要是大气中的温室气体增加造成的，温室效应变化具有重要的地理意义，增温幅度存在普遍适应的规律。冬季大于夏季，高纬度大于低纬度，陆地大于海洋。植物种群的更新及迁移可能跟不上气候变化的步伐，土壤的形成更将远远落后于气候变化，过渡带的生态系统将长时期内存在，它们将是不稳定的，脆弱的，物种的灭绝速度可能会因此加快，人类对生物资源的利用也许会面临新的问题和挑战。     

Modelling the effects of climate change on methane emission from a northern ombrotrophic bog in Canada

Peatlands are a large potential source of methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere. In order to investigate the effects of climate change on CH₄ emission from northern ombrotrophic peatlands, a simulation model coupling water table dynamics with methane emission was developed for the Mer Bleue Bog in Ontario, Canada. The model was validated against reported values of CH₄ flux from field measurements and the model outputs exhibited high sensitivity to acrotelm thickness, leaf area index, transmissivity and slope of water table. With a 2–4°C temperature rise over the 4-year simulation period, the rate of CH₄ release dropped significantly to under 0.1 mg m⁻² day⁻¹. On the other hand, mean CH₄ emission increased by >26-fold when the increase in precipitation was >15%. When looking at the combined effects, the highest CH₄ release (13.3 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) was attained under the scenario of 2°C temperature rise and 25% precipitation increase. Results obtained in this study highlight the importance of avoiding more extreme climate change, which would otherwise lead to enhanced methane release from peatlands and further atmospheric warming through positive feedback.     

Carbonic inclusions

The paper gives an overview of the phase relations in carbonic fluid inclusions with pure, binary and ternary mixtures of the system CO₂–CH₄–N₂, compositions, which are frequently found in geological materials. Phase transitions involving liquid, gas and solid phases in the temperature range between −192°C and 31°C are discussed and presented in phase diagrams (PT, TX and VX projections). These diagrams can be applied for the interpretation of microthermometry data in order to determine fluid composition and molar volume (or density).     

中国大陆新生代典型火山区温室气体释放的规模及其成因

火山活动能够将地球深部的碳输送到大气圈,是地质碳排放和深部碳循环的重要形式.火山作用不仅在喷发期能够释放大量温室气体,而且在休眠期也能释放巨量的温室气体.在全球变暖的背景下,定量化地研究火山活动对大气圈温室气体含量增加的贡献具有至关重要的意义.本文利用密闭气室法等该领域国际先进的测试技术,测量并计算了长白山、腾冲、五大连池及青藏高原南部的羊八井等典型火山区的温室气体释放规模.结果显示,我国大陆新生代典型火山区向大气圈输送的温室气体总通量约为8.13×10⁶t·a^-1,接近10⁷t·a^-1级别,相当于全球火山活动导致的温室气体(主要为CO₂)释放总量的6%左右.太平洋构造域火山区的温室气体在释放通量与总量方面均低于特提斯构造域,并且太平洋构造域火山气体的地壳混染程度较低,显示出大洋俯冲带与大陆俯冲带火山区温室气体释放的成因差异.     

Quantifying 21st-century France climate change and related uncertainties

We tackle here the question of past and future climate change at sub-regional or country scale with the example of France. We assess France climate evolution during the 20th and 21st century as simulated by an exhaustive range of global climate simulations. We first show that the large observed warming of the last 30 years can be simulated only if anthropogenic forcings are taken into account. We also suggest that human influence could have made a substantial contribution to the observed 20th century multi-decadal temperature fluctuations. We then show that France averaged annual mean temperature at the end of the 21st century is projected to be on the order of 4.5 K warmer than in the early 20th century under the radiative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Summer changes are greater than their winter counterpart (6 K versus 3.7 K). Near-future (2020–2049) changes are on the order of 2.1 K (with 2.6 K in summer and 1.8 K in winter). Model projections also suggest a substantial summer precipitation decrease (−0.6 mm/day), in particular over southern France, and a moderate winter increase, (0.3 mm/day), mostly over the northernmost part of France. Uncertainties about the amplitude of these precipitation changes remain large. We then quantify the various sources of uncertainty and study how their ranking varies with time. We also propose a physically-based metric approach to reduce model uncertainty and illustrate it with the case of summer temperature changes. Finally, timing and amplitude of France climate change in case of a global average 2-K warming are investigated. Aggressive mitigation pathways (such as RCP2.6) are absolutely required to avoid crossing or barely exceeding the 2-K global threshold. However, France climate change requiring adaptation measures is still to be expected even if we achieve to remain below the 2-K global target.     

Optimization and modeling of boric acid extraction from colemanite in water saturated with carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide gases

In this study, the boric acid extraction from colemanite ore in aqueous media saturated by CO₂ and SO₂ gases was studied and the effects of relevant parameters, namely; reaction temperature, solid-to-liquid ratio, mean particle size, stirring speed and reaction time have been investigated on the boric acid extraction from colemanite ore by using the fractional factorial design and central composite design methods. The chosen experimental parameter levels were as follows: reaction temperature, 11.4–58.6 °C; solid-to-liquid ratio, 0.0685–0.1315 g/mL; mean particle size, 0.2835–3 mm; stirring speed, 107–893 rpm; reaction time, 7.125–22.875 min. A model has been developed between the boric acid extraction efficiency from colemanite ore and relevant parameters by means of variance analysis by using the matlab computer software and the obtained model was used to determine optimum conditions. The optimum conditions were found to be as follows: reaction temperature, 41 °C; solid-to-liquid ratio, 0.0685 g/mL; mean particle size, 0.2835 mm; stirring speed, 266 rpm; reaction time, 7 min. The calculated boric acid extraction efficiency from colemanite ore was approximately 99.9% under the optimum conditions.     

Impact of experimental parameters for manometric equipment on CO2 isotherms measured: Comment on “Inter-laboratory comparison II: CO2 isotherms measured on moisture-equilibrated Argonne premium coals at 55°C and up to 15 MPa” by Goodman et al. (2007)

Modelling the sorption properties of coals for carbon dioxide under supercritical conditions is necessary for accurate prediction of the sequestering ability of coals in seams. We present recent data for sorption curves of three dry Argonne Premium coals, for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrogen at two different temperatures at pressures up to 15 MPa. The sorption capacity of coals tends to decrease with increasing temperature. An investigation into literature values for sorption of nitrogen and methane by charcoal also show sorption capacities that decrease dramatically with increasing temperature. This is inconsistent with expectations from Langmuir models of coal sorption, which predict a sorption capacity that is independent of temperature. We have successfully fitted the isotherms using a modified Dubinin–Radushkevich equation that uses gas density rather than pressure. A simple pore-filling model that assumes there is a maximum pore width that can be filled in supercritical conditions and that this maximum pore width decreases with increasing temperature, can explain this temperature dependence of sorption capacity. It can also explain why different supercritical gases give apparently different surface sorption capacities on the same material. The calculated heat of sorption for these gases on these coals is similar to those found for these gases on activated carbon.     

全球变化中的北极碳汇：现状与未来

由于海冰覆盖，北极碳汇（Arctic Carbon Sink）在全球碳通量预算中经常被忽略或简单处理。但随着全球变化加剧，北极发生快速变化，北极碳循环及其对全球变化的响应与反馈日趋重要。综合对北极碳汇的研究结果，分析了北极碳汇的来源、变化以及主要调控因子，评估了北极碳汇现状。探讨了在全球变化中，影响北极碳汇变化的因素及其对未来北极碳汇变化趋势的影响。      

Greenhouse gases mitigation against climate change: United States-Mexico border study case

Solar radiation is one of the most important energy resources of our planet. The interest in its use as a renewable and clean energy to mitigate the greenhouse gases (GHG) effects has increased significantly. This paper evaluates the measurements of global solar radiation and its energy potential and presents a comparison between both of them, as an example of the effort to reduce GHG emissions. The measurements were made with pyranometers installed in the city of Mexicali, Baja California, located in northwestern Mexico, and the city of Yuma, Arizona, located in the southwestern United States. Separated by a distance of 96 km, both cities have a sustained development and are climatically similar, since they present numerous sunny days, extreme hot temperatures and little precipitation. The results presented show differences in their behavior and in the solar radiation measurement values, especially for the critical spring and summer seasons, with values 15.73% (0.042 kW/m²) higher in Mexicali with respect to Yuma. Energy power is estimated, and it is discussed with some variables as global solar radiation, rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity and climatology of clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy days. With this estimation, the solar energy used and GHG avoided is projected for Mexicali. It is assessed that 291 tons of GHG are prevented. The Mexicali values of potential energy are higher than those of Yuma; therefore, this solar and energy comparative study provides reasons to develop these technologies in Mexico, but solar technologies should be deployed also in Yuma. The measured data at the regional level demonstrate their importance, and the relevance of the proposed mitigation strategy for climate change.     

Climate change,carbon dependency and narratives of transition and stasis in four English rural communities

This paper explores the carbon dependency of life in four villages in England, the degree to which residents in these villages are aware of and concerned about this dependency and its relationship to climate change, and the extent to which they undertake actions that might mitigate or adapt to this dependency. The paper identifies high degrees of carbon dependency and awareness and concern about climate change and carbon dependency, although relatively low levels of mitigative or adaptive actions. The paper explores how this disjuncture between awareness and actions persists, arguing that attention needs to be paid to how people narrate stories to themselves and others that account for inaction. Five narratives of non-transition or stasis are identified, along with three, less widely adopted, narratives of transition. The significance of rurality and emotions within these narratives is highlighted.     

浅析新生代气候变化与大气温室气体浓度的关系

摘要：根据国内外相关研究结果,对新生代气候变化与温室气体(特别是CO2)浓度在不同时间尺度上的可能关系进行初步归纳和探讨。在构造、轨道和千年时间尺度上,气候变化和温室气体浓度均有显著的相关性,表明温室气体无疑是影响地球气候系统的重要因素。同时,两者亦具有显著的“非耦合”特征,包括新近纪构造尺度上CO2相对稳定水平下的全球变冷和冰量扩张、轨道和千年尺度上CO2浓度变化滞后于气候变化、两半球气候的不对称演化等;两者变化的幅度、趋势和变率也常有不同。这些特征中的多数并不能用地球轨道参数的变化来直接解释,表明除太阳辐射和温室气体外,气候系统内部的其他一些因素或过程有时对过去的气候变化起到了决定性的作用。气候变化与温室气体浓度之间可能存在一种自调节功能,构成一个自调节系统而相互调控,而目前我们对这类过程与机理所知尚少。CO2、CH4等作为温室气体,在上述不同时间尺度的气候变化过程中,无疑对气温具正反馈效应。地质尺度上气候变化与温室气体浓度的关系与机理有助于理解当前全球增温的机制,但把过去与现在类比的同时,也要考虑其他边界条件的不同。加强气候模拟与记录对比的研究,对理解上述问题有望发挥重要作用。 关键词：新生代气候;温室气体;碳循环;人类活动