Climatic change and Chinese population growth dynamics over the last millennium

The climate–population relationship has long been conceived. Although the topic has been repeatedly investigated, most of the related works are Eurocentric or qualitative. Consequently, the relationship between climate and population remains ambiguous. In this study, fine-grained temperature reconstructions and historical population data sets have been employed to statistically test a hypothesized relationship between temperature change and population growth (i.e., cooling associated with below average population growth) in China over the past millennium. The important results were: (1) Long-term temperature change significantly determined the population growth dynamics of China. However, spatial variation existed, whilst population growth in Central China was shown to be responsive to both long- and short-term temperature changes; in marginal areas, population growth was only sensitive to short-term temperature fluctuations. (2) Temporally, the temperature–population relationship was obscured in some periods, which was attributable to the factors of drought and social buffers. In summary, a temperature–population relationship was mediated by geographic factors, the aridity threshold, and social factors. Given the upcoming threat posed by climate change to human societies, this study seeks to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate–society relationship.     

Climate change and violent conflict in Europe over the last millennium

We investigate the relationship between a thousand-year history of violent conflict in Europe and various reconstructions of temperature and precipitation. We find that conflict was more intense during colder period, just like Zhang et al. (Clim Change 76:459–477, 2006) found for China. This relationship weakens in the industrialized era, and is not robust to the details of the climate reconstruction or to the sample period. As the correlation is negative and weakening, it appears that global warming would not lead to an increase in violent conflict in temperature climates.     

Sources of continental dust over Antarctica during the last glacial cycle

The soluble and insoluble parts of 4 major components (Al, Ca, K and Mg) of the continental dust input over East Antarctica, as well as size, distribution parameters of the insoluble part of this dust, have been studied along an ice core which spanns the last climatic cycle (160 kyr). These results provide a better understanding of the respective impact of the different potential dust sources. While Al and K were probably entrapped in illite originating from arid areas and in a lesser extent from shallow marine sediments, Ca and Mg inputs were dominated by marine carbonate of exposed continental shelves emissions.     

Tree ring inferred summer temperature variations over the last millennium in western Himalaya, India

We report the first millennium-long reconstruction of mean summer (May–June–July–August) temperature extending back to AD 940 derived from tree-ring width data of Himalayan pencil juniper (Juniperus polycarpos C. Koch) from the monsoon-shadow zone in the western Himalaya, India. Centennial-scale variations in the reconstruction reveal periods of protracted warmth encompassing the 11–15th centuries. A decreasing trend in mean summer temperature occurred since the 15th century with the 18–19th centuries being the coldest interval of the last millennium, coinciding with the expansion of glaciers in the western Himalaya. Since the late 19th century summer temperatures increased again. However, current warming may be underestimated due to a weakening in tree growth-temperature relationship noticeable in the latter part of the 20th century. Mean summer temperature over the western Himalaya shows a positive correlation with summer monsoon intensity over north central India. Low-frequency variations in mean summer temperature anomalies over northwestern India are consistent with tree-ring inferred aridity in western North America. These far-distance linkages reported here for the first time underscore the utility of long-term temperature records from the western Himalayan region in understanding global-scale climatic patterns.     

Dust size evidence for opposite regional atmospheric circulation changes over east Antarctica during the last climatic transition

Three east Antarctic ice cores (Dome B, EPICA-Dome C and Komsomolskaia) give evidence for a uniform dust input to the polar plateau during the last glacial maximum (LGM)/Holocene transition (20 to 10 kyr BP) and the ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr versus ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd isotopic signature of the mineral particles highlights a common provenance from southern South America at that time. However, the size distribution of dust from the three ice cores highlights important differences within the east Antarctic during the LGM and shows clearly opposite regional trends during the climatic transition. Between Dome B and Dome C the timing of these changes is also different. A geographical diversity also arises from the different phasing of the short-term (multi-secular scale) dust size oscillations that are superposed at all sites on the main trends of glacial to interglacial changes. We hypothesize the dust grading is controlled by size fractionation inresponse to its atmospheric pathway, either in terms of horizontal trajectory or in altitude of transport. Such mechanism is supported also by the dust size changes observed during a volcanic event recorded in Vostok ice. Ice core dust size data suggest preferential upper air subsidence over the EDC-KMS region and easier penetration of relatively lower air masses to the DB area during the LGM. At the end of the last glacial period and during the climatic transition the region of relatively higher subsidence progressively moved southward. The scenario proposed, supported also by the LGM/Holocene regional changes of snow accumulation, likely operates even at sub-millennial time scale.     

A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium

We present an annually resolved reconstruction of spring-summer precipitation variability in East Anglia, UK (52–53°N, 0–2°E) for the period AD 900–2009. A continuous regional network of 723 living (AD 1590–2009) and historical (AD 781–1790) oak (Quercus sp.) ring-width series has been constructed and shown to display significant sensitivity to precipitation variability during the March-July season. The existence of a coherent common growth signal is demonstrated in oaks growing across East Anglia, containing evidence of near-decadal aperiodic variability in precipitation throughout the last millennium. Positive correlations are established between oak growth and precipitation variability across a large region of northwest Europe, although climate-growth relationships appear time transgressive with correlations significantly weakening during the early twentieth century. Examination of the relationship between oak growth, precipitation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), reveals no evidence that the NAO plays any significant role in the control of precipitation or tree growth in this region. Using Regional Curve Standardisation to preserve evidence of low-frequency growth variability in the East Anglian oak chronology, we produce a millennial length reconstruction that is capable of explaining 32–35% of annual-to-decadal regional-scale precipitation variance during 1901–2009. The full length reconstruction indicates statistically significant anomalous dry conditions during AD 900–1100 and circa-1800. An apparent prolonged wetter phase is estimated for the twelfth and thirteen centuries, whilst precipitation fluctuates between wetter and drier phases at near centennial timescales throughout the fourteenth to seventeenth centuries. Above average precipitation reconstructed for the twenty-first century is comparable with that reproduced for the 1600s. The main estimated wet and dry phases reconstructed here appear largely coherent with an independent tree-ring reconstruction for southern-central England.     

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium

To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.     

近千年东亚季风变化统计动力反演与驱动机制研究

利用观测数据和非线性统计-动力学方法,构建了东亚季风变化的动力方程。量化了单因子强迫及各因子间相互作用在东亚季风演化中的相对贡献率,为东亚季风驱动机制研究提供了量化参考。研究发现:（1）过去千年东亚季风是多种因子共同作用下的复杂非线性动力系统。有些因子以起驱动作用为主,则有些以反馈调节作用为主,因子间交互作用与东亚季风演化存在耦合效应机制。（2）季风的驱动力主要来源于副热带太平洋海表温度、青藏高原动力热力强迫、CO₂和N₂O交叉项、太阳辐射和N₂O交叉项、CO₂与CH₄交叉项等的耦合作用机制;调节作用主要是石笋δ18O指代的地理位置、单因子CO₂浓度、太阳辐射变化、CH₄与N₂O交叉项、太阳辐射与ENSO交叉项等的耦合作用机制。温室气体（CO₂、CH₄与N₂O）浓度对东亚季风演化的驱动与调节作用贡献较大。（3）通过动力反演机制推论副热带太平洋和热带西太平洋对东亚季风均有驱动作用,但主要驱动力来自副热带太平洋,即驱动东亚季风变化的主源地在副热带太平洋海区,次源地在热带西太平洋海区。（4）由海-陆温差对季风演变贡献大小推测石笋δ18O指代的也主要是夏季风信息。      

Multidecadal-to-centennial SST variability in the MPI-ESM simulation ensemble for the last millennium

We assess the responses of North Atlantic, North Pacific, and tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) to natural forcing and their linkage to simulated global surface temperature (GST) variability in the MPI-Earth System Model simulation ensemble for the last millennium. In the simulations, North Atlantic and tropical Indian Ocean SSTs show a strong sensitivity to external forcing and a strong connection to GST. The leading mode of extra-tropical North Pacific SSTs is, on the other hand, rather resilient to natural external perturbations. Strong tropical volcanic eruptions and, to a lesser extent, variability in solar activity emerge as potentially relevant sources for multidecadal SST modes’ phase modulations, possibly through induced changes in the atmospheric teleconnection between North Atlantic and North Pacific that can persist over decadal and multidecadal timescales. Linkages among low-frequency regional modes of SST variability, and among them and GST, can remarkably vary over the integration time. No coherent or constant phasing is found between North Pacific and North Atlantic SST modes over time and among the ensemble members. Based on our assessments of how multidecadal transitions in simulated North Atlantic SSTs compare to reconstructions and of how they contribute characterizing simulated multidecadal regional climate anomalies, past regional climate multidecadal fluctuations seem to be reproducible as simulated ensemble-mean responses only for temporal intervals dominated by major external forcings.     

Persistent multi-decadal Greenland temperature fluctuation through the last millennium

Future Greenland temperature evolution will affect melting of the ice sheet and associated global sea-level change. Therefore, understanding Greenland temperature variability and its relation to global trends is critical. Here, we reconstruct the last 1,000 years of central Greenland surface temperature from isotopes of N₂ and Ar in air bubbles in an ice core. This technique provides constraints on decadal to centennial temperature fluctuations. We found that northern hemisphere temperature and Greenland temperature changed synchronously at periods of ~20 years and 40–100 years. This quasi-periodic multi-decadal temperature fluctuation persisted throughout the last millennium, and is likely to continue into the future.     

Evaluation of turbulent fluxes over Maitri,Antarctica

Turbulent fluxes have been evaluated for clear sunny days over the Indian Antarctic station, Maitri, using the basic meteorological data recorded at four levels of a 28 m tower. The data are supplemented with radiation data. The surface layer over Maitri remains thermally stratified during the hours of minimum solar insolation, the so-called nighttime period. The surface winds during this period are generally very strong resulting in high momentum fluxes. In particular, for high winds (>12 m s^–1), the temperature gradient is found to be less positive than for moderate winds (4 to 7 m s^–1). Solar insolation provided the daytime heating necessary for the diurnal variation of atmospheric stability, and hence, for the turbulent fluxes. Thus, on clear days daytime conditions are marked by upward transport of heat with reduced momentum flux, while stable nighttime conditions are marked by a downward heat flux with increased momentum fluxes.     

过去千年中国东部年代际-百年尺度干湿变化特征:基于古水文动力同化数据

利用古水文动力同化数据(PHYDA)研究了过去千年中国东部年代际-百年尺度干湿变化特征.结果表明,对比其它重建数据PHYDA在百年尺度上对小冰期前期中国东部干湿变化的再现能力最好,其对这一时期发生的年代际干旱事件包括1352-90年,1445-98年,1580-94年和1626-65年干旱事件的再现能力也最强.通过与强...     

The two-step shape and timing of the last deglaciation in Antarctica

The two-step character of the last deglaciation is well recognized in Western Europe, in Greenland and in the North Atlantic. For example, in Greenland, a gradual temperature decrease started at the Bölling (B) around 14.5 ky BP, spanned through the Alleröd (A) and was followed by the cold Younger Dryas (YD) event which terminated abruptly around 11.5 ky BP. Recent results suggest that this BA/YD sequence may have extended throughout all the Northern Hemisphere but the evidence of a late transition cooling is still poor for the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present a detailed isotopic record analyzed in a new ice core drilled at Dome B in East Antarctica that fully demonstrates the existence of an Antarctic cold reversal (ACR). These results suggest that the two-step shape of the last deglaciation has a worldwide character but they also point to noticeable interhemispheric differences. Thus, the coldest part of the ACR, which shows a temperature drop about three times weaker than that recorded during the YD in Greenland, may have preceded the YD. Antarctica did not experienced abrupt changes and the two warming periods started there before they started in Greenland. The links between Southern and Northern Hemisphere climates throughout this period are discussed in the light of additional information derived from the Antarctic dust record.     

Evaluating Parameterizations for Turbulent Fluxes over the Landfast Sea-Ice Surface in Prydz Bay,Antarctica

It is crucial to appropriately determine turbulent fluxes in numerical models. Using data collected in East Antarctica from 8 April to 26 November 2016, this study evaluates parameterization schemes for turbulent fluxes over the landfast seaice surface in five numerical models. The Community Noah Land Surface Model with Multi-Parameterizations Options(Noah＿mp) best replicates the turbulent momentum flux, while the Beijing Climate System Model(BCC＿CSM) produces the optimum sensible and latent hea...     

南极中山站太阳紫外辐射测值比较

比较分析了2017年南极中山站3种仪器测量地面太阳紫外B（UVB）波段和紫外A（UVA）波段的辐照度。以Brewer光谱仪测值为参考,国产宽波段FSUVB日射表在UVB（波段280~315 nm）的辐照度相对误差为（55±75）%,误差随大气臭氧总量的增加呈上升趋势,但在南极“臭氧洞”期间偏低。Yankee UVB宽波段日射表在UVB（波段280~320 nm）的辐照度相对误差为（-31±22）%;国产宽波段FSUVA日射表在UVA（波段315~400 nm）的辐照度相对误差为（23±5.9）%。太阳天顶角低于80°的晴天以Tropospheric Ultraviolet Visible（TUV）辐射模式计算结果为参考时,FSUVB,Yankee UVB和FSUVA辐照度的平均相对误差分别为（30±37）%,（-22±19）%和（27±6.4）%,而Brewer相对误差未超过3.5%。国产宽波段UV日射表测值偏高,反映出波长较长的杂散光对太阳辐照度测值影响明显。