国外气候资料整编方法介绍——以美国、加拿大为例

世界气象组织认为30a的长度可以消除气候的年变化,建议各国以30a为标准为政府部门以及科研工作者提供气候标准值,同时,包括中国在内的许多世界气象组织成员也规定每隔10a对气候标准值进行一次更新。上次更新的气候标准值时间是1971～2000年。而2010年就要来临,需要准备整理新的30a气候标准值（1981～2010年）,因此,对上次（即1971—2000年）美、加的整编方法和要素进行了介绍和总结,从而为我国新的气候标准值的整编提供一个参考。     

全国地面气候资料统计处理方法的研制

对《全国地面气候资料统计方法）研制的主要目标、技术特点、主要内容、结构设计和主要技术改进进行了论证。     

气候变率和北大西洋涛动对20世纪欧洲植物物候的影响

总结了气候变率和近年来气候变化对20世纪欧洲植物物候的影响。针对近年来气候变化,物候学主要有两个功能：第一,它能定量揭示气候变化对自然的影响,同时实证全球气候变化存在于人们的生活中;第二,长期物候数据为20世纪温度及其变化重建提供依据。过去30～50a,温度驱动的植物物候变化最明显的是开春提早。在北半球中高纬度观测发现开春平均提早2．5d／10a。秋季各种物候变化不如春季那样明显,并且也不能与气候因子联系起来。春、夏季起始日的时空变率及其变化主要与区域和局地温度有关。本文讨论了生长季和其他物候阶段的温度响应,以及它们与北大西洋涛动（NAO）的关系。这些结果说明了气候系统中生物化学循环和陆地相互作用的主要反馈：     

一种基于SVD的迭代方法及其用于气候资料场的插补试验

提出一种基于SVD的迭代对气象场序列缺测记录插补延长的技术方法,对长江流域20个测站1月份气温做插补试验,平均均方误差为0.25,插补精度明显优于迭代EOF,插补效果良好且性能稳定;而且插补站数所占比例越小效果越好.此研究表明,基于SVD迭代的插补方法是一种非常有效的插补途径.     

气候变暖的归因研究

气候变暖的成因是目前国际上的一个争议焦点,代表国际主流思想的4次IPCC评估报告[1-4]认为是人类活动的影响造成了变暖,其中包括温室效应加剧使气候变暖,而气溶胶的直接和间接影响则抵消了一部分变暖.但是,从20世纪末至今对气候变暖持怀疑观点的科学家,仍然不断对气候变暖的原因提出质疑[5 7].所以气候变暧的归因研究仍然是国际上的热门问题.     

气候模拟数据的订正与应用——以北京为例

为了消除气候模拟数据中气候平均值和气候变率的漂移,发展了一种新的数据订正方案。应用该方案对IPCC提供的B2情景下北京未来100 a气候预估值进行了订正试验,证实了方案的可用性。在此基础上分析了北京未来气候变化特征,结果表明：21世纪北京气温将继续上升,升温速率约为0.31℃/10 a,最低、最高气温的非对称变化仍将持续;未来北京年降水量呈微弱下降趋势,下降速率约为1.03 mm/10 a。     

基于贝叶斯模型的器测、古气候重建与气候模拟数据的融合试验

气象部门馆藏的西部最早的器测气象资料始于20世纪30年代,不能满足建立20世纪以来中国气候变化序列的需求,而古气候重建或气候模拟资料则可以延伸到器测时代以前。为了探讨长序列多源气候资料序列融合方法,采用贝叶斯方法对中国北疆地区8条树轮气温重建资料、器测资料与国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）模式模拟资料进行了融合试验。首先利用器测资料对气温代用资料进行校验与网格重建,并以此作为贝叶斯模型的先验分布,然后,用泰勒图选出了该区域气候模拟效果最佳的几个模式;最后将网格重建和气候模拟序列用贝叶斯模型进行了融合试验。结果表明,贝叶斯融合模型能有效提取各种数据来源的有用信息进行融合,融合结果的长期变化（线性）趋势更接近器测气候序列,并在一定程度上提高了序列的精度,减小了结果的不确定性;并且,融合结果能够纠正先验分布及气候模拟数据的明显偏差,为长年代气候序列重建提供了一个可行的思路。      

气候对房屋朝向间距影响——以湖南省邵阳为例

该文根据太阳在天空中的位置,分析计算了邵阳水平面各墙壁的日照时数、直达辐射量、建筑物阴影、各向墙壁日照时间和冬夏盛行风向等。分析表明,邵阳房屋最佳朝向在正南偏东偏西各15°的范围内,不宜朝西、朝北（东北）;起居室、办公室、会议室等宜安排在南向房间内,楼道、厨房、厕所等宜安排在北向房间中。     

基于气候系统指数的月尺度霾日定量预测方法研究——以芜湖市为例

利用1955-2018年芜湖市国家气象观测站资料,1980-2018年国家气候中心气候系统指数资料,对芜湖市近64 a的霾日气候序列进行重建,在此基础上使用线性趋势和Mann-Kendall方法,系统分析了芜湖市霾日的气候特征.以芜湖市为例,借助多元逐步回归方法,尝试研究了一种以气候系统指数为 自变量,霾日为因变量,建...     

以环流相似为依据的短期气候预测方法

根据两个自然天气季节的相似条件之一是环流演变的过程相似的原理,开发出一种短期气候预测方法.它是以亚洲环流指数和东亚槽、极涡、太平洋副热带高压的环流特征为因子,以因子的连续变化为依据,求出预报年与历年各因子的相似离度平均值,作为判据,确定预报年的最佳相似年,进而做出预测的方法.经初步验证,获得了一定的效果.     

Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: application to Europe

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable “a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future applications.     

Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe

This paper studies some impacts of climate change on electricity markets, focusing on three climate effects. First, demand for electricity is affected because of changes in the temperature. Second, changes in precipitation and temperature have impact on supply of hydro electric production through a shift in the inflow of water. Third, plant efficiency for thermal generation will decrease because the temperature of water used to cool equipment increases. To find the magnitude of these partial effects, as well as the overall effects, on Western European energy markets, we use the multi-market equilibrium model LIBEMOD. We find that each of the three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase of only 1%. The partial effects on total electricity supply are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%. The greatest effects are found for Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries, annual production of electricity increases by 8%, reflecting more inflow of water, while net exports doubles. In addition, because of lower inflow in summer and higher in winter, the reservoir filling needed to transfer water from summer to winter is drastically reduced in the Nordic countries.     

补偿作用在气候预报中应用初探

讨论了补偿作用在气候预报中的应用,指出补偿作用在气候异常和重要天气阶段的变化中具有较好的应用价值,介绍补偿概念以及应用实例,并提出有待于进一步探索的问题。     

青藏铁路适应气候变化的筑路工程技术

The climate warming,which has an evident effect on the warm/ice-rich permafrost,should be considered in the engineering design of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in permafrost areas.Based on the rule mentioned above,many design ideas and measures such as cooling embankment and controling of heat conduction,radiation and convection were proposed during the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway to reduce the permafrost temperature and to reduce the impact of climate warming on the railway.These measures ensure the stability of the railway embankment in permafrost regions.     

Railway Construction Techniques Adapting to Climate Warming in Permafrost Regions

 The climate warming, which has an evident effect on the warm/ice-rich permafrost, should be considered in the engineering design of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway in permafrost areas. Based on the rule mentioned above, many design ideas and measures such as cooling embankment and controling of heat conduction, radiation and convection were proposed during the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway to reduce the permafrost temperature and to reduce the impact of climate warming on the railway. These measures ensure the stability of the railway embankment in permafrost regions.     

Vulnerability of the Netherlands and Northwest Europe to Storm Damage under Climate Change

Storms occasionally bring havoc to Northwest Europe. At present, a single storm may cause damage of up to 7 billion U.S.$, of which a substantial part is insured. One scenario of climate change indicates that storm intensity in Northwest Europe could increase by 1–9% because of the doubling of CO₂ concentrations in the atmosphere. A geographic-explicit, statistical model, based on recent storms and storm damage data for the Netherlands, shows that an increase of 2% in wind intensity by the year 2015 could lead to a 50% increase in storm damage to houses and businesses. Only 20% of the increase is due to population and economic growth. A 6% increase could even triple the damage. A simpler model – based on national average data and combined with a stochastic storm generator – shows that the average annual damage could increase by 80% with a 2% increase in wind intensity. A 6% wind intensity increase could lead to an average annual damage increase of 500%. The damage in Northwest Europe is about a factor 6 higher than the damage in the Netherlands. Little potential seems to exist for reducing the vulnerability to storms in the Netherlands. More attention should be given to planning at the government level for disaster relief and to the development of coping strategies.     

Climate policy innovation: The adoption and diffusion of adaptation policies across Europe

Climate change adaptation governance is in flux. Adaptation policies are being adopted by governments at a rapid pace, particularly in Europe. In the period 2005–2010, the total number of recorded adaptation policy measures in the EU grew by some 635%. Despite the plethora of work on adaptation governance, few if any empirical studies have been conducted that explore the driving forces behind the rapid adoption and diffusion of adaptation policies. Working within the theoretical framework of national policy innovation (see Jordan and Huitema, 2014a, Jordan and Huitema, 2014b), we draw on a uniquely systematic database of national climate polices to develop a set of hypotheses on the drivers and barriers surrounding the adoption and diffusion of climate change adaptation policies across 29 European countries. Using an internal/external model we postulate that adaptation is largely being driven by internal factors. Additionally, we look to the possible effects of this policy adoption and diffusion to see if adaptation is emerging into a new and distinct policy field. What we find is that indeed it could be in a handful of countries.     

自忆性建模及其气候应用

对制约系统运动的含时间微商项的方程,引进记忆函数后可导得一个差分—积分方程,它能包容含初值的多个往值。构建和求解系统的差分—积分方程的原理,称为自忆性原理,相应导得的数学模型称为自忆性模型。自忆性模型现已应用到气象、海洋、水文、市场、农业、交通和能源等多个领域的建模、计算和预报,尤其在预报方面取得了显著成果,提高了预报准确率。文中还论述了自忆性—界门模型,讨论了自忆性模型应用效果好的原因,给出了气候预测的实例。     

试析新疆气候特征对田径运动训练的影响

田径运动训练和比赛成绩的好坏,除了与运动员临场竞技状态等因素有关外,还与比赛训练时的气象要素风、气温、湿度等有着密切关系。本文结合新疆的气候特征着重阐述了不同季节气候的变化对田径运动训练的影响,同时也分析了“五差”对新疆田径运动员竞技能力的影响,并提出了建议。     

最优气候相似法及其在降水预报中的应用

介绍了一种短期气候预测方法———最优气候相似法 ,并应用于张家界地区 1 999～ 2 0 0 2年 5～ 7月总降水预报中 ,结果显示最优气候相似法能够有效地提高短期气候的预测能力 ,特别对气候异常具有良好的反应能力 ,适合于短期气候业务预报。