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F. Alejandro Nava Claudia Herrera José Frez Ewa Glowacka 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2005,162(6-7):1347-1366
Seismogenic regions within some geographic area are interrelated through tectonics and seismic history, although this relation is usually complex, so that seismicity in a given region cannot be predicted in a straightforward manner from the activity in other region(s). We present a new statistical method for seismic hazard evaluation based on modeling the transition probabilities of seismicity patterns in the regions of a geographic area during a time interval, as a Markov chain. Application of the method to the Japan area renders good results, considering the occurrence of a high probability transition as a successful forecast. For magnitudes M5.5 and time intervals t=0.10 year, the method yields a 78% aftcast (forecast of data already used to evaluate the hazard) success rate for the entire catalog, and an indicative 80% forecast success rate for the last 10 transitions in the catalog. A byproduct of the method, regional occurrence probabilities determined from the transition probabilities, also provides good results; aftcasts of regional activity have a 98% success rate, and those of activity in the highest probability region about 80.5% success rate. All results are superior to those from the null hypotheses (a memory-less Poissonian, fixed-rate, or uniform system) and have vanishingly small probabilities of resulting from purely random guessing. 相似文献
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地震损失概率预测研究中的地震危险性分析方法探讨 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:2
本文基于假定未来某段时间内研究地区或场地上地震烈度影响事件遵从贝努利(Bernoulli)随机独立试验过程,利用历史地震烈度-额度统计关系,提出了一种适用于地震损失概率预测的危险性分析方法。 相似文献
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福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
大量震例研究表明,活动断层产生的直下型地震对城市的破坏非常严重,应用先进有效的地质与地球物理探测技术,准确地探明城市之下及附近活动断层分布,确定直下型地震的震源和危害性是我国城市减灾工作面临的一个非常急迫的实际问题。《福州市活断层探测与地震危险性评价》项目作为中国地震局全国城市活动断层探测的试点与示范项目于2001年初开始实施,2004年8月通过中国地震局的验收。项目围绕解决城市范围内的断裂定位、定年、定性、深部背景、地震危险性和危害性及防震减灾对策等一系列科学问题,通过“初查与目标区主要活断层鉴定”、“深部地震构造环境探测”、“地震活断层鉴定与危险性评价”、“地震活断层的详细探测”、“地震活断层危害性评价”和“活断层地理信息系统建设”等阶段的探测和评价工作,同时在福州市城、郊区全面开展壤中气汞、土壤汞、气氡、地质雷达、多道直流电法、瞬变电磁法、浅层地震折射法、浅层地震反射法、勘探震源效果对比、用于建立福州盆地埋藏第四系(标准)剖面的钻探等多种手段的试验探测,总结各种试验探测的技术指标和实践经验,在活断层的综合试验探测、定位定年、地震危险性和危害性评价等方面取得了下列成果与结论:(1)福州市活断层综合试验探测成果表明,在充分收集、整理与分析相关地质、地球物理、钻孔等资料的基础上,以地球化学探测为先导“侦察机”,确定了活断层的可能位置;以浅层地震勘探为主要探测方法,辅以电磁勘探作为补充,并利用钻探建立的第四系(标准)剖面或地层层序及测井获得的各种地球物理参数进行必要的校正和验证,结合裸露地表断层或埋深较浅断层的槽探及古地震调查或隐伏断层两侧钻孔岩芯岩性、层序、绝对年龄或孢粉等相对年龄的测定与对比等,是进行城市活断层探测(定位)与地震危险性、危害性评价(定年、定性)的最佳组合方法。(2)福州盆地位于具有发生中等强度地震的区域地震构造环境中,“台湾动力触角”对其影响相对较弱。(3)福州盆地主要断裂的活动性较弱,经鉴定的6条目标断裂都不是全新世断裂。其中,八一水库-尚干断裂和闽侯-南屿断裂至少为晚更新世中期以来的不活动断裂,其它为晚更新世以来不活动断裂。(4)福州盆地深部不存在发生直下型强烈破坏性地震的构造环境,其邻近的长乐-诏安断裂带是未来可能会发生对福州市有影响的地震震源区。(5)福州盆地主要断裂存在发生中等-中强地震的危险性,但发震概率较小。(6)福州盆地地震危害性较弱,地面发生地震地表破裂带的可能性不大。(7)开发建立了全国第一个活断层地理信息系统,具备信息查询显示、数据管理、数据的分析处理和咨询服务等功能。 相似文献
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In this paper,the earthquake hazard parameters(λm,b and Mmax) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation.The declusterd catalogues have been compoiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period.As an example,Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966,to 1976,The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λm,b is significant.The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period,at most,45% and 90%,respectively,But the diffeence in Mmax is smaller,Based on this,the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made,but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research. 相似文献
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本文利用晋冀蒙交界地区1500年以来记录较完整的MS5.0及以上历史地震烈度资料和2000年以来的地震活动资料,分别进行地震灾害危险性和地震活动性分析。首先,利用ArcGIS将历史地震烈度资料数字化,没有等震线记录的地震用烈度衰减关系计算烈度圈半径。将研究区划分成0.1°×0.1°的网格,将烈度资料分配到与之相交的每个网格,并用烈度-频度关系计算每个网格的烈度a、b值。基于地震发生遵从泊松分布的假定,估算未来50年内晋冀蒙交界区遭受某一地震烈度的超越概率。同时,计算50年超越概率10%对应的地震烈度,计算结果表明张家口蔚县、阳原和山西广灵县周边地区的地震危险性较高。最后,采用中小地震能量密度值计算方法,对2000年以来的现今地震活动进行定量分析,与历史地震烈度资料分析结果进行对比,发现中小地震活动圈定的危险区与历史地震烈度资料评估计算的概率高值区相对应,因此,这两种方法可为晋冀蒙交界地区的地震活动性和危险性评价提供参考。 相似文献
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Zhu Jinfang 《中国地震研究》2005,19(3):224-239
INTRODUCTIONFuzhouis an ancient cultural city,having a history of2200years,being one of the earliestcoastal cities that were open to the outside world.It is a bigalopolis on the southeast coast of Chinawith developed economy and dense population.The urban… 相似文献
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Aykut Deniz Kasim Armagan Korkmaz Ayhan Irfanoglu 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2010,167(12):1475-1484
Izmir, the third largest city and one of the major economic centers in Turkey, has more than three million residents and one-half million buildings. The city, located in a seismically active region in western Anatolia, was a subject of the 1997 RADIUS (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas against Seismic Disaster) project. In this paper, the seismic hazard of Izmir is investigated through probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. First, the seismic setting of Izmir is presented. Considering the statistics of earthquakes that took place in the region during the period 1900–2005, a simple seismic hazard model is used to facilitate the assessment. To account for modeling uncertainties associated with the values of seismicity parameters, a logic tree procedure is employed in carrying out the seismic hazard computations. The resulting weighted average seismic hazard, presented in terms of peak ground acceleration and associated probability of exceedence, could be considered the “best estimate” of seismic hazard for Izmir. Accordingly, for a return period of 475 years, for rock sites, a PGA value of 0.34 g is calculated. This PGA hazard estimate is close to the current code-recommended design acceleration level for Izmir. 相似文献
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本文采用了空间光滑地震活动性模型,该模型无需潜在震源区划分,同时发展了概率地震危险性分析新方法。根据三种地震目录资料建立了三种地震活动性模型,利用高斯光滑函数获得了湖南区域内的比值分布特征,使用了两种典型的衰减模型,计算了50年内超越概率10%的地震动峰值加速度(PGA)分布。其分析结果显示PGA分布特征与中国地震动参数区划图大体一致,部分区域PGA提高,PGA达0.05g的区域显著扩大,其中包括邵阳、湘潭、吉首、怀化等重要城市,而这种PGA分布特征与该地区地震活动性特征是一致的。概率危险性曲线的结果表明常德等地区的潜在地震危险性比湖南区域内其他城市高。表明此模型用于地震危险性计算中是简便易行的,且具有较高的精度。尤其对于地质和地震构造信息缺乏的弱震区和中强震区,该方法作为替代方法并有着广泛的应用价值。 相似文献
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华北地区的背景地震活动及区域未来强震危险性 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
华北地区的历史强震活动非常频繁。 然而, 自1998年张北MS6.2地震以来, 该地区已经经历了10多年的地震平静期, 中强震平静现象比较突出。 本文利用1970年至2009年的小震资料, 对华北地区的背景地震活动进行分析, 给出了地震活动性参数b值、 最大震级以及强震复发间隔和强震年平均发生概率的空间分布。 b值空间分布表明, 山西构造带的运城地区, 郯庐断裂带的宿迁地区以及太行山块体内部的石家庄地区的b值较低。 地震活动性参数的综合空间图像表明华北地区的地震活动主要受区域深部动力因素所控制。 相似文献
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The historical earthquake activity is intense in the North China region. However, no middle-sized earthquakes have occurred in the last decades in the region since the MS6.2 earthquake in the Zhangbei region in 1998. The quiescence of moderate and strong earthquakes is quite prominent in North China. In this paper, we use small earthquake records in 1970~2009 to study background seismic activity in the North China region. The spatial distributions of seismic parameters are presented, including b-value, the maximum magnitude and annual occurrence probability of earthquakes of M≥6.0. Our results show regions with low b-value that include the Yuncheng region in the Shanxi rift, the Suqian region located in the Tancheng-Lujiang fault zone and the Shijiazhuang region in the Taihangshan block. Our analysis on the synthetic spatial pattern of seismicity indicate that seismicity in the North China region is mainly affected by the regional dynamic factors of deep structures. 相似文献
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Seismologists have begun to investigate the earthquake damage and assess the economic losses on the spot in the Yunnan area since the earthquakes with Ms6.7 and Ms6.9 that occurred on the boundary between China and Myanmar west of Menglian county, Yunnan Province, on April 23, 1992. From 1992 to 2003, 50 destructive earthquakes occurred in Yunnan, and large amounts of data on seismic hazard have been accumulated. With focus on the major building structures, the paper makes statistical analysis on the earthquake damage ratio, loss ratio and seismic hazard index in the areas with different seismic intensity of the 50 events, and presents the seismic hazard matrix of buildings for the Yunnan area. 相似文献
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活动断裂地震危险性的研究现状和展望 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:2
本文综述了活动断裂地震危险性研究的历史、发展现状、存在的问题及发展方向。在活动断裂地震危险性研究中,重点论述了在概率分析研究阶段地震复发模式、概率模型、断裂间相互作用以及最大震级的评估等问题,指出未来活动断裂地震危险性分析研究的主要发展方向是多学科资料和研究手段、动力环境分析和力学模型的引入。 相似文献
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本文研究了俯冲带潜在震源区离散化方法及考虑俯冲带高震级地震震源破裂面和震源深度的场点地震动计算方法,推导了俯冲带潜在震源区地震危险性计算公式,并使用中国海域及邻区地震危险性模型进行地震危险性试算。结果表明,本文建立的考虑俯冲带潜在震源区的地震危险性算法能够实现场点地震危险性计算时对俯冲带高震级地震震源破裂面和震源深度的考虑。 相似文献
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地震危险性概率分析(PSHA)是目前最广泛应用于地震灾害与风险性评估的方法。然而它在计算中却存在着一个错误:把强地面运动衰减关系(一个函数)的条件超越概率等同于强地面运动误差(一个变量)的超越概率。这个错误导致了运用强地面运动误差(空间分布特征)去外推强地面运动的发生(时间分布特征)或称之为遍历性假设,同时也造成了对PSHA理解和应用上的困难。本文推导出新的灾害计算方法(称之为KY-PSHA)来纠正这种错误。 相似文献