Country and regional staple food price indices for improved identification of food insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization are often used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development's Famine Early Warning Systems Network indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in regions that are food insecure areas, are isolated from international export market price trends. Here we present country and regional staple food price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We examine the market integration of regional and country level staple food price indices for 35 countries in West, East and Southern Africa and in Central Asia and Central America. We found that cereal price indices constructed using local market prices of within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier warning of food security crises.     

对IPCC AR6报告中有关农业系统结论的解读

与IPCC第五次评估报告相比,第六次评估报告（AR6）有关农业的评估对象由作物生产系统延伸到粮食供应链系统,气候变化对作物生产不利影响的证据在加强。气候变化改变了作物适宜种植区,使中高纬度及温带地区作物种植界限向高纬度、高海拔地区推移。人为引起的气候变暖阻碍了作物产量的增长,地表O₃浓度增加使作物产量降低,CH₄排放加剧了这种不利影响。气候变化加剧作物病虫草害,极端气候事件高发加剧了粮食不安全,推升了国际粮食价格。适应措施有助于减缓气候变化不利影响,基于自然的适应方案在增强作物生产系统气候恢复力和保障粮食安全方面具有较高潜力。从保障国家粮食安全和重大战略需求出发,AR6报告对我国农业应对气候变化相关工作的启示如下：需要高度重视气候变化背景下作物种植适宜区转变与种植带北移的重要战略价值,合理规划农业生产布局;加强农业气象灾害和病虫害防治体系和能力建设,保障粮食生产稳定性;关注气候变化对国际作物生产和谷物贸易的影响,统筹国内、国际市场粮食资源,保障粮食安全;推进农业温室气体减排与作物生产高效协同,为实现国家减排目标做出贡献。     

The devil is in the details: An investigation of the relationships between conflict,food price and climate across Africa

This study investigates the relationship between violent conflict, food price, and climate variability at the subnational level. Using disaggregated data on 113 African markets from January 1997 to April 2010, interrelationships between the three variables are analyzed in simultaneous equation models. We find that: (i) a positive feedback exists between food price and violence – higher food prices increase conflict rates within markets and conflict increases food prices; (ii) anomalously dry conditions are associated with increased frequencies of conflict; and (iii) decreased rainfall exerts an indirect effect on conflict through its impact on food prices. These findings suggest that the negative effects of climate variability on conflict can be mitigated by interventions and effective price management in local markets. Creating environments in which food prices are stable and reliable, and markets are accessible and safe, can lower the impacts of both climate change and conflict feedbacks.     

The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030

Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low-productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10–60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20–50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by significant amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields – or highly aggregated poverty impacts.     

Measuring household vulnerability to climate change—Why markets matter

Climate change and climate variability affect households in developing countries both directly through their impact on crop yields and indirectly through their impact on wages, food prices and the livelihoods of the poor. Therefore, vulnerable household groups cannot be identified without considering their position in and access to markets. I illustrate the effects – transmitted through markets – that are significant in household exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change by simulating productivity shocks to maize up to 2030 due to climate change in a computable general equilibrium model of Malawi. The results show that rural households with large land holdings may benefit from the adverse impact of climate change on maize yields as a result of increased maize prices. Urban poor and small-scale farmers are vulnerable to climate change due to the large portion of their incomes spent on food. Existing vulnerability measures that do not consider equilibrium effects and characterise all farmers as vulnerable may therefore be misleading.     

The impacts of food price and income shocks on household food security and economic well-being: Evidence from rural Bangladesh

This paper examines the combined impacts of food price and income shocks on household food security and economic well-being in low-income rural communities. Using longitudinal survey data of 1800 rural households from 12 districts of Bangladesh over the period 2007–2009, we estimated a three-stage hierarchical logit model to identify the key sources of household food insecurity. The first-difference estimator was then employed to compare pre- and post-shock expenditure for those households that experienced acute food shortages and those that managed to avoid the worst impacts of the shocks. On the basis of our results we conclude that: (1) the soaring food prices of 2007–2009 unequivocally aggravated food insecurity in the rural areas of Bangladesh; (2) the subsequent income shocks of 2007–2009 contributed toward worsening food insecurity; (3) the adverse impacts of these shocks appeared to have faded over time due to labor and commodity market adjustments, regional economic growth, and domestic policy responses, leaving no profound impacts on households’ economic well-being in most cases; and (4) although the immediate adverse consequences of rising food prices were borne disproportionately by the poor, the longer term consequences were distributed more evenly across the rich and poor and were favorable for the day laborers.     

The impact of biofuel-induced food-price inflation on dietary energy demand and dietary greenhouse gas emissions

Dramatic increases in liquid biofuel production have led to concerns about associated impacts on food prices, with many modeling studies showing significant biofuel-related price inflation. In turn, by changing patterns of food demand, biofuel production may indirectly influence greenhouse gas emissions. We estimated changes to dietary energy (calorie) demand and greenhouse gas emissions embodied in average diets under different biofuel-related food-price scenarios for Brazil, China and the United States, using food-price projections and food-price elasticities. Average energy demand decreased in all countries, from about 40 kcal per person per day in Brazil under a moderate price inflation scenario – a reduction of 1% relative to the (2009) reference scenario – to nearly 300 per day in the United States with high price inflation – almost 8% of reference levels. However, emissions per calorie increased slightly in all three countries. In terms of total greenhouse gas emissions, the results are suggestive of overall reductions only in the United States, where average reductions ranged from about 40 to 110 kg of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions per person per year. In China, the direction of impact is unclear, but the net change is likely to be small. Brazilian results were sensitive to parameter values and the direction and magnitude of impact is therefore uncertain. Despite the uncertainty, even small changes (positive or negative) in individual dietary emissions can produce large changes at the population level, arguing for the inclusion of the dietary pathway in greenhouse gas accounting of liquid biofuels.     

Linking the CDM with domestic carbon markets

Certified emission reductions (CERs) from Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects have traditionally served as an indirect link between cap and trade systems around the world. However, since 2010, import restrictions have increased. Reasons for import limitations include the supplementarity principle, genuine concerns about the environmental integrity of CERs and social benefits of CDM projects, pressure from domestic emissions mitigation industries, concerns about competition in the industries in which reductions take place, as well as the attempt to pressure advanced developing countries to accept national emissions commitments under a future international climate policy regime. It is shown that import limitations lead to a decrease in CER prices and a race to generate CERs as quickly as possible. Such effects are visible in the CDM market after the EU announced its import limitations. The exclusion of CERs from specific project types will distort the CDM supply curve and increase the CER price unless the marginal abatement costs of the excluded project type are above the CER world market price. Similarly, exclusion of CERs from specific host countries will increase the price. Substantial differences are found in CER access to national carbon markets around the world.Policy relevanceCDM regulators could try to improve access of CERs to cap and trade schemes through improvements to additionality testing, standardizing baseline and monitoring methodologies and stakeholder consultation. However, regulators should be aware that standardization is no panacea, and controversies may resurface if standardized additionality determination (e.g. through benchmarks or positive lists) are applied for a certain period and found to be problematic. However, domestic policy concerns such as an unwillingness to send money abroad to buy credits, an inability to control market prices, and competitiveness impacts cannot be resolved by CDM reforms. If, despite such reforms of the CDM, blatant protectionism continues, a challenge before the World Trade Organisation (WTO) could be launched to stop discrimination of service exports from specific countries.     

Energy prices and seafood security

Fish resources are critical to the food security of many nations. Similar to most contemporary food systems, many fisheries and aquaculture resource supply chains are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Energy price increases and volatility may hence undermine food security in some contexts. Here, we explore the relationships between energy price changes, fish resource supply chain viability, seafood availability and food security outcomes – both for producers and consumers of fish resources. We begin by characterizing the energy intensities of fish resource supply chains, which are shown to be highly variable. We subsequently assess the comparative magnitude and distribution of potential food security impacts of energy price increases for nation states by scoring and ranking countries against a set of vulnerability criteria including metrics of national exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Considerable variability in the vulnerability of populations and high levels of exposure for already food-insecure populations are apparent. Developed countries are likely to be most exposed to the effects of energy price increases due to their high rates of fleet motorization and preference for energy-intensive seafood products. However, heavy reliance on seafood as a source of food and income, as well as limited national adaptive capacity, translates into greater overall vulnerability in developing countries. At the level of individual producers, a variety of adaptation options are available that may serve to reduce vulnerability to energy price changes and hence contribute to increased food security for producers and consumers, but uptake capacity depends on numerous situational factors.     

Assessing the authenticity of national carbon prices: A comparison of 31 countries

Many countries have carbon pricing in place, in the form of a tax and/or market. Generally, this involves low price rates, incomplete emissions coverage, and price reductions for particular sectors. This raises the question whether the label “carbon price” – in the environmental-economics textbook sense – really applies. To answer it, we assess the authenticity of 31 national carbon prices, calculating average carbon prices and their gap with advertised prices, at both national and sector levels. The results indicate a poor level of authenticity. This means that the carbon prices published by sources such as the World Bank provide a misleading representation of the actual national policy pressure on emissions. Countries show considerable differences regarding the average carbon price level and the gap with advertised prices. Moreover, there is not a one-to-one relationship between advertised and average carbon prices, suggesting the former are not a good basis for international comparison of policy effectiveness. Across countries, the mean carbon price equals €7.90/ton of CO₂ while the mean price gap is 57.7%. Most noticeably, the highest advertised price for Sweden should be interpreted with care as it goes along with a price gap of almost €100 to the average price. In addition, Switzerland and Finland show relatively high price gaps. To illustrate the relevance and non-triviality of our indicators, note that Sweden occupies a 3rd position in terms of average carbon price (after Norway and Switzerland), 27th in terms of price gap, and 16th in terms of effective rate (i.e. sum of implicit and explicit carbon prices). We further find that implicit carbon prices dominate explicit ones for most countries, notably in road transport, whereas the reverse holds for industrial and electricity sectors. Combining our findings with recent empirical evidence for carbon-pricing effectiveness highlights the potential of the instrument to combat climate change, provided implementation is improved and internationally harmonized. Shifting the attention from advertised to average carbon prices might help in this regard.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Tele-connecting local consumption to global land use

Globalization increases the interconnectedness of people and places around the world. In a connected world, goods and services consumed in one country are often produced in other countries and exchanged via international trade. Thus, local consumption is increasingly met by global supply chains oftentimes involving large geographical distances and leading to global environmental change. In this study, we connect local consumption to global land use through tracking global commodity and value chains via international trade flows. Using a global multiregional input–output model with sectoral detail allows for the accounting of land use attributed to “unusual” sectors – from a land use perspective – including services, machinery and equipment, and construction. Our results show how developed countries consume a large amount of goods and services from both domestic and international markets, and thus impose pressure not only on their domestic land resources, but also displace land in other countries, thus displacing other uses. For example, 33% of total U.S. land use for consumption purposes is displaced from other countries. This ratio becomes much larger for the EU (more than 50%) and Japan (92%). Our analysis shows that 47% of Brazilian and 88% of Argentinean cropland is used for consumption purposes outside of their territories, mainly in EU countries and China. In addition, consumers in rich countries tend to displace land by consuming non-agricultural products, such as services, clothing and household appliances, which account for more than 50% of their total land displacement. By contrast, for developing economies, such as African countries, the share of land use for non-agricultural products is much lower, with an average of 7%. The emerging economies and population giants, China and India, are likely to further increase their appetite for land from other countries, such as Africa, Russia and Latin America, to satisfy their own land needs driven by their fast economic growth and the needs and lifestyles of their growing populations.     

Global inequalities in food consumption,cropland demand and land-use efficiency: A decomposition analysis

The world population is expected to rise to 9.7 billion by 2050 and to ~11 billion by 2100, and securing its healthy nutrition is a key concern. As global fertile land is limited, the question arises whether growth in food consumption associated with increased affluence surmounts increases in land-use efficiency (measured as food supply per cropland area) associated with technological progress. Furthermore, substantial inequalities prevail in the global food system: While overly rich diets represent a serious health issue for many of the world’s most affluent inhabitants and constitute a critical climate-change driver, undernourishment and hunger still threaten a considerable fraction of the world population, mostly in low-income countries. We here analyze trajectories in cropland demand and their main basic drivers food consumption (measured by a food index reflecting the share of animal products in diets) and land-use efficiency, for 123 countries (clustered in four income groups, covering 94% of the world population). We cover the period 1990–2013 and assess if these trajectories are associated with changes in inequality between countries. We find that while all groups of countries converged towards the high level of the per-capita food consumption of high-income countries, differences between income groups remained pronounced. Overall, cropland demand per capita declined over the entire period in all regions except low income countries, resulting in a tendency towards global convergence. However, the trend slowed in the last years. In contrast, land-use efficiency increased in all income groups with a similar trend, hence international inequalites in land-use efficiency remained almost unaltered. Because population and food requirements per capita are expected to grow in all income groups except the richest ones, failure to improve land efficiency sufficiently could lead to a less unequal but at the same time less ecologically sustainable world. Avoiding such outcomes may be possible by reducing the consumption of animal products in the richer countries and raising land-use efficiency in the poorer countries.     

Climate change and migration: Is agriculture the main channel?

Migration and climate change are two of the most important challenges the world currently faces. They are connected as climate change may stimulate or hinder migration. One of the sectors strongly affected by climate change is agriculture, which is the source of income for most of the world's poor. Climate change may affect agricultural productivity and hence migration because of its impact on average temperatures and rainfall and because it increases the frequency and intensity of weather shocks. In this paper we use data on 108 countries from 1960 to 2010 to analyze the relationship between weather variations, changes in agricultural productivity and international migration. We find that negative shocks to agricultural productivity caused by climate fluctuations significantly increase emigration from developing countries, an especially strong impact in poor countries but less so in middle income countries. These results are robust to the definitions of the poor country sample, and to several checks and alternative explanations suggested by the literature. Importantly, our results point to a causal interpretation of the agricultural channel to explain the climate change-migration nexus.     

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on rice farmers and markets in Bangladesh

Bangladesh, the sixth largest rice producer in the world, has been identified as high risk from the effects of climate change. Many of the adverse impacts of climate change such as land inundation and changes in weather patterns and CO₂ levels will impact the agricultural sector. This study develops a partial-equilibrium multi-regional farm household model of Bangladesh rice and non-rice agricultural markets to quantify the impacts of climate change on consumption, production, prices, and farmers’ welfare. The model is calibrated to the Bangladesh rice market using Household Income and Expenditure Survey data. The model is simulated to analyze the impact of land reduction and productivity decline resulting from climate change. The results show that the decline in production in the coastal and northern regions offsets the production increase in the central and eastern regions, and the simulation predicts that total rice production for Bangladesh falls by about 2%. As total rice consumption falls and imports rise, the net effect leads to a rise in the rice price by 5.71% and a decline in farmers’ welfare. Sensitivity analysis shows that more- (less-) effective abatement technology could play a key role in mitigating (exacerbating) the price and welfare effects. The model predicts that many farmers in regions directly impacted by climate change could leave farming in search of off-farm work. Thus, the government can ease this transition by promoting urban development to provide more job options and technical training for farmers.     

Shocks to fish production: Identification,trends, and consequences

Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system.     

International trade buffers the impact of future irrigation shortfalls

There is increasing interest in the water–food nexus, especially the restrictive effect of water on food production in hot spots where irrigation stress is growing. However, little is known about the larger-scale implications of future irrigation shortfalls for global trade and economic welfare, as well as of the potential buffering impacts of international trade on the local impacts of irrigation shortage. In this paper, we utilize a recently developed model, GTAP-BIO-W, to study the economic effects of changes in irrigation outlook for 126 river basins, globally by 2030. Projected irrigation availability is obtained from the IMPACT-WATER model, and imposed upon the present-day economy. Irrigation availability in 2030 is expected to drop by 30–60% in several key rivers basins, including: Hai He, Indus, Luni, and the Eastern Mediterranean basin, leading to significant output declines in China, South Asia, and the Middle East. We find that the regional production impacts of future irrigation water shortages are quite heterogeneous, depending on the size of the shortfall, the irrigation intensity of crop production, the possibility of expanding rainfed areas, as well as the crop mix. These changes in regional output significantly alter the geography of international trade. To compensate for the loss of productivity caused by the irrigation constraint, an estimated 7.6 million hectares of cropland expansion is needed to meet the demand for food. In spite of the remarkable reduction of irrigation in some basins, the resulting welfare impact is relatively modest as a result of the buffering capacity of global markets. The global welfare loss amounts to $3.7 billion (2001 prices) and results from a combination of the reduction in irrigation availability as well as the interplay with agricultural support policies.     

The global cropland footprint of Denmark's food supply 2000–2013

The global use of and pressure on land resources will continue to rise in tandem with the predicted rise in global population and food demand. Addressing unavoidable trade-offs between satisfying human needs and biodiversity conservation for future generations is of paramount importance when tackling the global environmental challenges of land use. Food consumption patterns are inextricably linked to land-use and land-use changes. The domestic supply and final use of food by humans and feed by animals within the borders of a country have environmental impacts overseas. Countries like Denmark, with considerably high livestock production, import “virtual” land needed to produce cereals and other fodder crops. Denmark's high meat and dairy consumption and trade levels make it a compelling case for this study. The overarching question is: how much land is required to support food and feed consumption in Denmark? This paper assesses the global cropland footprint of Danish food and feed supply from 2000 to 2013 using a consumption-based physical accounting approach. In addition to domestic croplands for local food and supply, we estimate the hectares of cropland displaced in other countries to satisfy Danish demand for food and feed in this period. Secondly, we calculate Denmark's global cropland requirements for the supply of specific livestock products, namely; pork, eggs, beef, milk, and mutton. Globally, animals provide a third of the protein in human diets and agricultural GDP. The total global cropland footprint of Danish food and feed supply decreased by 18% from 1568 kha in 2000 to 1282 kha in 2013 because of a reduction in the consumption of ruminant livestock products. A high share of this reduction can be attributed to increased local self-sufficiency in feed supply as opposed to rising food imports. The share of cropland used for feed in total cropland declined by 5% whereas the share of cropland used for food increased from 28% in 2000 to 32% by 2013. Our findings suggest that reducing domestic meat consumption coupled with local self-sufficiency policies for both food and feed supply could be a means of lowering ecological degradation in exporting countries.     

The Effect of Vegetation Productivity on Millet Prices in the Informal Markets of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger

Systematic evaluation of food security throughout the Sahel has been attempted for nearly two decades. Food security analyses have used both food prices to determine the ability of the population to access food, and satellite-derived vegetation indices that measure vegetation production to establish how much food is available each year. The relationship between these two food security indicators is explored here using correspondence analysis and through the use of Markov chain models. Two sources of quantitative data were used: 8 km normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) carried on the NOAA series of satellites, and monthly millet prices from 445 markets in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. The results show that the growing season vegetation production is related to the price of millet at the annual and the seasonal time scales. If the growing season was characterized by erratic, sparse rainfall, it resulted in higher prices, and well-distributed, abundant rainfall resulted in lower prices. The correspondence between vegetation production and millet prices is used to produce maps of millet prices for West Africa.     

Climate change: impacts on electricity markets in Western Europe

This paper studies some impacts of climate change on electricity markets, focusing on three climate effects. First, demand for electricity is affected because of changes in the temperature. Second, changes in precipitation and temperature have impact on supply of hydro electric production through a shift in the inflow of water. Third, plant efficiency for thermal generation will decrease because the temperature of water used to cool equipment increases. To find the magnitude of these partial effects, as well as the overall effects, on Western European energy markets, we use the multi-market equilibrium model LIBEMOD. We find that each of the three partial effects changes the average electricity producer price by less than 2%, while the net effect is an increase of only 1%. The partial effects on total electricity supply are small, and the net effect is a decrease of 4%. The greatest effects are found for Nordic countries with a large market share for reservoir hydro. In these countries, annual production of electricity increases by 8%, reflecting more inflow of water, while net exports doubles. In addition, because of lower inflow in summer and higher in winter, the reservoir filling needed to transfer water from summer to winter is drastically reduced in the Nordic countries.