Growth and physiological responses of larch trees to climate changes deduced from tree-ring widths and δ13C at two forest sites in eastern Siberia

Tree-ring chronologies of ring width and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) over the past 160 years were developed using living larch trees at two forest sites, each with different annual precipitation, in eastern Siberia: Spasskaya Pad (SP) (62°14′N, 129°37′E); and Elgeeii (EG) (60°0′N, 133°49′E). Intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) was derived from tree-ring δ¹³C. The physiological responses of the larch trees to climate varied between these sites and over time. Ring widths correlated negatively with summer temperatures at SP, where summer precipitation is lower than at EG, probably due to temperature-induced water stress. Since the 1990s, however, the negative effect of warming has been more severe at EG, where the productivity of larch trees is higher than at SP. A greater reduction of larch tree growth and higher increase rate of iWUE at EG reflects greater temperature-induced water stress, which is incident to the larger forest biomass. Our results suggest that effect of increase in atmospheric CO₂ on larch tree growth is not sufficient to compensate for temperature-induced water stress on larch growth in eastern Siberia and differences in precipitation and forest productivity largely affect the larch tree response to changing climate in eastern Siberia.     

Influence of industrial activity and pollution on the paleoclimate reconstruction from a eutrophic lake in lowland England,UK

Reliable estimates of Holocene temperatures are important for understanding past climate dynamics, the response of biota to climate change, and validating climate models. Chironomids in lake sediment cores are used widely to quantify past summer temperatures, for which high-latitude and/or high-altitude lakes, remote from human influence, are usually considered appropriate. Temperature inferences from lowland lakes are likely influenced by other variables, specifically eutrophication and industrial pollution, but their reliability has never been tested. We used a Norwegian chironomid-based transfer function (r ² = 0.91; RMSEP = 1.01 °C) to infer mean July air temperature over the last 200 years, using chironomid assemblages in a core collected from a polluted, nutrient-enriched lake at Speke Hall, Liverpool, England. The chironomid-inferred temperatures correlate significantly with the local instrumental temperature record and follow long-term national temperature trends. These results show that chironomids can be used to produce reliable estimates of past mean July air temperature, even when other variables have also influenced the composition of the chironomid community. These findings underline the value of chironomids as sensitive and reliable quantitative proxies for summer temperature.     

Lake evolution and hydroclimate variation at Lake Qinghai (China) over the past 32 ka inferred from ostracods and their stable isotope composition

We used ostracod species assemblages and their δ¹⁸O values in a 32-m sediment core from Lake Qinghai, China, along with information from cores collected at other sites in the lake, to infer lake evolution and hydroclimate changes since the last glacial. Dominant ostracod species Ilyocypris bradyi and its low δ¹⁸O values showed that Lake Qinghai was small in size or even consisted of several playa lakes, and the 1F core site could have even been in a wetland setting, under cold and dry climate conditions before 15.0 ka. Presence of Limnocythere inopinata with low δ¹⁸O values, and absence of I. bradyi after 15.0 ka, indicate the lake area increased or that the playas merged. The decrease or disappearance of ostracods with high δ¹⁸O values showed that the lake shrunk under dry climate from 12.0 to 11.6 ka. After 11.6 ka, hydroclimate shifts inferred from ostracod species changes (Eucypris mareotica and L. inopinata) and their δ¹⁸O values were as follows: (1) 11.6–7.4 ka—larger, but still small lake area with greater moisture availability under primarily dry climate conditions, (2) 7.4 to 3.2 ka—increasing lake level under a warmer and wetter climate, and (3) 3.2 ka to present—stable, large, brackish lake. The low ratio of lake water volume to runoff, and close proximity of the core site to freshwater input from the river mouth would have resulted in relatively lower ostracod δ¹⁸O values when Lake Qinghai was small in area during the interval from 32.0 to 15.0 ka. Lower ostracod δ¹⁸O values during interstadials and throughout the entire Last Glacial Maximum and early deglacial (ca. 24.0–16.0 ka) were caused by a greater contribution of seasonal meltwater from ice or snow and low incoming precipitation δ¹⁸O values related to cold climate conditions in the region at that time.     

Community resilience,natural hazards,and climate change: Is the present a prologue to the future?

ABSTRACT

The nexus of natural hazards, climate change, and community resilience poses both conceptual and methodological challenges. One key consideration is the underlying notion of dynamic change or transformation in the systems that affect community resilience—social systems, natural systems, technological systems—and the degree to which the interdependencies influence who is resilient, to what, where, and to whom. The article examines community resilience from the broad perspective of affluent societies and illustrates the considerable variability in both the temporal and spatial nature of community resilience to natural hazards in the short term, and climate changes in the longer term, especially in more affluent societies. The author finds that, given the rapidity of environmental, social, economic, political, technological, and cultural changes, present circumstances and remedies may not be adequate predictors or precursors of future conditions. She concludes that the challenges associated with community resilience, natural hazards, and climate change require transformational thinking and action if achievements are to be made in terms of significant disaster risk reduction and any semblance of a sustainable future when extreme weather events will be the norm, not the exception.     

A 2000 year varve-based climate record from the central Brooks Range,Alaska

Varved minerogenic sediments from glacial-fed Blue Lake, northern Alaska, are used to investigate late Holocene climate variability. Varve-thickness measurements track summer temperature recorded at Atigun Pass, located 41 km east at a similar elevation (r ² = 0.31, P = 0.08). Results indicate that climate in the Brooks Range from 10 to 730 AD (varve year) was warm with precipitation inferred to be higher than during the twentieth century. The varve-temperature relationship for this period was likely compromised and not used in our temperature reconstruction because the glacier was greatly reduced, or absent, exposing sub-glacial sediments to erosion from enhanced precipitation. Varve-inferred summer temperatures and precipitation decreased after 730 AD, averaging 0.4°C above the last millennial average (LMA = 4.2°C) from 730 to 850 AD, and 0.1°C above the LMA from 850 to 980 AD. Cooling culminated between 980 and 1030 AD with temperatures 0.7°C below the LMA. Varve-inferred summer temperatures increased between 1030 and 1620 AD to the LMA, though the period between 1260 and 1350 AD was 0.2°C below the LMA. Although there is no equivalent to the European Medieval Warm Period in the Blue Lake record, two warm intervals occurred from 1350 to 1450 AD and 1500 to 1620 AD (0.4 and 0.3°C above the LMA, respectively). During the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1620 to 1880 AD), inferred summer temperature averaged 0.2°C below the LMA. After 1880 AD, inferred summer temperature increased to 0.8°C above the LMA, glaciers retreated, but aridity persisted based on a number of regional paleoclimate records. Despite warming and glacial retreat, varve thicknesses have not achieved pre-730 AD levels. This reflects limited sediment availability and transport due to a less extensive retreat compared to the first millennium, and continued relative aridity. Overall, the Blue Lake record is similar to varve records from the eastern Canadian Arctic that document a cool LIA and twentieth century warming. However, the occurrence and timing of events, such as the LIA and Medieval Warm Period, varies considerably among records, suggesting heterogeneous climatic patterns across the North American Arctic.

Climate of the past millennium inferred from varved proglacial lake sediments on northeast Baffin Island,Arctic Canada

This study uses ^239+240Pu-dated varved sediments from Big Round Lake, a proglacial lake on northeast Baffin Island, Arctic Canada to generate a 1000-year-long, annual-resolution record of past climate. Varve thickness is positively correlated with July–August–September temperature measured at Clyde River, 70 km to the north of the lake (r = 0.46, p < 0.001). We therefore interpret the variability and trends in varve thickness to partially represent summer temperature. The coolest Little Ice Age temperatures occurred in this record from 1575 to 1760 AD and were approximately 1.5°C cooler than today (average from 1995 to 2005 AD) and 0.2°C cooler than the last millennium (average from 1000 to 2000 AD). Pre-twentieth-century warmth occurred during two intervals, 970–1150 AD and 1375–1575 AD; temperatures were approximately 1.2°C cooler than today, but 0.1°C warmer than the last millennium. The Big Round Lake varve-thickness record contains features similar to that reconstructed elsewhere in the eastern Canadian Arctic. This high-resolution quantitative record expands our understanding of arctic climate during the past millennium.

Observing climate impacts on tea yield in Assam,India

Tea is an important cash crop for the economy in northeast India. It also supports the livelihoods of a large proportion of the population. At the same time, tea growth is sensitive to climatic conditions making it vulnerable to climate change and variability. Identifying the tea yield response to climatic variability in operational plantations, and identifying the most important climatic variables that impact tea yield is critical to assessing the vulnerability of the industry and informing adaptation. Here, we developed a garden level panel dataset and estimated statistical models to identify the causal effect of monthly temperature, monthly precipitation, drought intensity, and precipitation variability on tea yield. We found decreasing tea yield returns to warmer monthly average temperatures, and when monthly temperatures were above 26.6 °C warming had a negative effect. We found that drought intensity did not affect tea yield and that precipitation variability, and in particular precipitation intensity, negatively affect tea yield. An increase in average temperatures as expected with global warming will reduce the productivity of tea plantations, all else held equal. Further, interventions to reduce the sensitivity of tea plantations to warming and precipitation variability will have immediate pay-offs as well as providing climate change adaptation benefits.     

Paleoecology of The Southern Chilean Lake District-Isla Grande de Chiloé During Middle–late Llanquihue Glaciation and Deglaciation

Subantarctic Parkland and Subantarctic–North Patagonian Evergreen Forest, embracing >40,000 ¹⁴ C years of middle and late Llanquihue glaciation, are reconstructed from pollen contained in multiple interdrift deposits and cores of lake sediments. The subantarctic plant communities at low elevations have since been replaced by temperate Valdivian Evergreen Forest. Data in support of the vegetation reconstruction derive from close-interval sampling (>1400 pollen analysed stratigraphic levels) and high-resolution chronology (>200 AMS and conventional radiocarbon-dated horizons). Pollen sequences are from 15 sites, eight of which are exposures and seven mires, located in relation to lobes of piedmont glaciers that occupied Lago Llanquihue, Seno Reloncav', Golfo de Ancud, and the east-central sector of Isla Grande de Chiloí at the northern limit of the Golfo Corcovado lobe. Recurring episodes of grass maxima representing Subantarctic Parkland, when grass and scrub became widespread among patches of southern beech (Nothofagus), bear a relationship to glacial advances. The implication of the maxima, prominent with advances at 22,400 and 14,800 ¹⁴C yr BP during late Llanquihue glaciation in marine oxygen-isotope Stage 2, is of successive intervals of cold climate with summer temperatures estimated at 6–8°C below the modern mean. The earliest recorded maximum at >50,000 ¹⁴C yr BP is possibly during late Stage 4. At the time of middle Llanquihue glaciation in Stage 3, cool, humid interstades on Isla Grande de Chiloé with Subantarctic Evergreen Forest, which under progressive cooling after 47,000 ¹⁴C yr BP was increasingly replaced by parkland. During stepwise deglaciation, when transitional beech woodland communities supplanting parkland became diversified by formation of thermophilous North Patagonian Evergreen Forest, warming in the order of 5–6°C was abrupt after 14,000 ¹⁴C yr BP . Closed-canopy North Patagonian Evergreen Forest was established by 12,500 ¹⁴C yr BP . Later, after c. 12,000 until 10,000 ¹⁴C yr BP , depending on location, forest at low elevations became modified by expansion of a cold-tolerant element indicative of ≥2–3°C cooler climate. This stepwise climatic sequence is seen at all late-glacial sites. Cool, humid interstadial conditions, punctuated by cold stadial climate, are characteristic of the last ≥40,000 ¹⁴C years of the Pleistocene at midlatitude in the Southern Hemisphere. Pollen sequences from southern South America and terrestrial–marine records from the New Zealand–Tasmania sector express a broad measure of synchrony of vegetational/climatic change for marine oxygen-isotope Stages 2–3. The data, combined with the timing of glacial maxima in the Southern Andes, Southern Alps of New Zealand, and in the Northern Hemisphere, are indicative of synchronous, millennial-scale, midlatitude climatic changes in the polar hemispheres.     

中国西北水资源利用及生态环境安全

1 Introduction In the 21st century, water resources will become the international and strategic resource instead of petroleum (Kang et al., 1994a, b). At present, the freshwater resources crisis all over the world has made people aware that although water…     

On the Relation between the Meteorological Conditions and the Freezing of Lusterfjord

Abstract|Gjessing,

Y. T. 1968. On the Relation between the Meteorological Conditions and the Freezing of Lusterfjord. Norsk geogr. Tidsskr. 22, 200–208,

In most cases Lusterfjord freezes over in winter immediately after a period of mild weather conditions with some precipitation. It is sufficient to have temperatures just below 0°C for a relatively short period of time in order for ice to form. However, during extreme cold weather conditions where the temperatures are under -15°C for a lengthy period of time, the fjord is often free from ice formation.

In order for ice to form, there must be a stable gradient in the uppermost centimetres of the water masses. This stable cross-section is a result of a strong gradient of salinity and is formed by a supply of fresh water in the form of precipitation. Such a layer will easily be decomposed by a mechanical turbulence (wind).     

Classification of climates and climatic regionalization of the West-Siberian plain

We examine some issues related to a classification of climates. A climatic regionalization has been carried out, and a brief characteristic given to the identified types of climate. It has been found that the relationship of the sums of mean daily ground air temperatures above 10 °C and the dryness index show a clearly pronounced zonal distribution. The combination of sums of mean daily air temperatures below ?10 °C and the depth of snow in the northern part of the plain is characterized by a horizontal distribution, and only in the middle and southern parts of the plain do these indices acquire zonal regularities. An analysis is made of the long-term dynamics of air temperature to reveal that some climate warming during 1981–2010 was mainly caused by a rise in winter air temperature.     

Insulating effect of coals and organic rich shales: implications for topography-driven fluid flow, heat transport, and genesis of ore deposits in the Arkoma Basin and Ozark Plateau

ABSTRACT Sedimentary rocks rich in organic matter, such as coal and carbonaceous shales, are characterized by remarkably low thermal conductivities in the range of 0.2–1.0 W m^?1 °C^?1, lower by a factor of 2 or more than other common rock types. As a result of this natural insulating effect, temperature gradients in organic rich, fine‐grained sediments may become elevated even with a typical continental basal heat flow of 60 mW m^?2. Underlying rocks will attain higher temperatures and higher thermal maturities than would otherwise occur. A two‐dimensional finite element model of fluid flow and heat transport has been used to study the insulating effect of low thermal conductivity carbonaceous sediments in an uplifted foreland basin. Topography‐driven recharge is assumed to be the major driving force for regional groundwater flow. Our model section cuts through the Arkoma Basin to Ozark Plateau and terminates near the Missouri River, west of St. Louis. Fluid inclusions, organic maturation, and fission track evidence show that large areas of upper Cambrian rocks in southern Missouri have experienced high temperatures (100–140 °C) at shallow depths (< 1.5 km). Low thermal conductivity sediments, such as coal and organic rich mudstone were deposited over the Arkoma Basin and Ozark Plateau, as well as most of the mid‐continent of North America, during the Late Palaeozoic. Much of these Late Palaeozoic sediments were subsequently removed by erosion. Our model results are consistent with high temperatures (100–130 °C) in the groundwater discharge region at shallow depths (< 1.5 km) even with a typical continental basal heat flow of 60 mW m^?2. Higher heat energy retention in basin sediments and underlying basement rocks prior to basin‐scale fluid flow and higher rates of advective heat transport along basal aquifers owing to lower fluid viscosity (more efficient heat transport) contribute to higher temperatures in the discharge region. Thermal insulation by organic rich sediments which traps heat transported by upward fluid advection is the dominant mechanism for elevated temperatures in the discharge region. This suggests localized formation of ore deposits within a basin‐scale fluid flow system may be caused by the juxtaposition of upward fluid discharge with overlying areas of insulating organic rich sediments. The additional temperature increment contributed to underlying rocks by this insulating effect may help to explain anomalous thermal maturity of the Arkoma Basin and Ozark Plateau, reducing the need to call upon excessive burial or high basal heat flow (80–100 mW m^?2) in the past. After subsequent uplift and erosion remove the insulating carbonaceous layer, the model slowly returns to a normal geothermal gradient of about 30 °C km^?1.     

Meteorological observations 1998 at the arctic station,Qeqertarsuaq (69°15'N), Central West Greenland/Active layer monitoring in two Greenlandic permafrost areas: Zackenberg and Disko Island

An automatic meteorological station has been operating at the Arctic Station (69°15'N, 53°31'W) in West Greenland since 1990. This paper summarises meteorological parameters during 1998, including snow cover, ground temperatures and active layer development, and presents comments on the local permafrost thickness.

Abstract

Active layer monitoring in Greenland was started in 1996 and 1997, and forms part of the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) Network of the International Permafrost Association (IPA). The results of the first years of this monitoring of thaw progression and maximum active layer thickness in two Greenlandic permafrost areas are presented. Two sites are in the continuous permafrost zone at Zackenberg in NE Greenland (74 °N), and one at Disko Island in W Greenland (69 °N), at the border between discontinuous and continuous permafrost.

The data collected at Zackenberg demonstrate interannual variation in the timing of thaw progression in the monitoring grid holding a seasonal snowpatch, while there is less variation in the horizontal grid without a snowpatch. The maximum active layer thickness for the two Zackenberg grids is more or less consistent for the first three years with averages from 58 to 66 cm in mid and late August. At Disko the active layer reached 71 cm in mid August 1998. Spatially the distribution of the maximum, annual active layer thickness within the grids is concordant.     

Five thousand years of sediment transfer in a high arctic watershed recorded in annually laminated sediments from Lower Murray Lake,Ellesmere Island,Nunavut, Canada

Sediments in Lower Murray Lake, northern Ellesmere Island, Nunavut Canada (81°21′ N, 69°32′ W) contain annual laminations (varves) that provide a record of sediment accumulation through the past 5000+ years. Annual mass accumulation was estimated based on measurements of varve thickness and sediment bulk density. Comparison of Lower Murray Lake mass accumulation with instrumental climate data, long-term records of climatic forcing mechanisms and other regional paleoclimate records suggests that lake sedimentation is positively correlated with regional melt season temperatures driven by radiative forcing. The temperature reconstruction suggests that recent temperatures are ~2.6°C higher than minimum temperatures observed during the Little Ice Age, maximum temperatures during the past 5200 years exceeded modern values by ~0.6°C, and that minimum temperatures observed approximately 2900 varve years BC were ~3.5°C colder than recent conditions. Recent temperatures were the warmest since the fourteenth century, but similar conditions existed intermittently during the period spanning ~4000–1000 varve years ago. A highly stable pattern of sedimentation throughout the period of record supports the use of annual mass accumulation in Lower Murray Lake as a reliable proxy indicator of local climatic conditions in the past.

Interannual and seasonal variations in energy and carbon exchanges over the larch forests on the permafrost in northeastern Mongolia

The larch forests on the permafrost in northeastern Mongolia are located at the southern limit of the Siberian taiga forest, which is one of the key regions for evaluating climate change effects and responses of the forest to climate change. We conducted long-term monitoring of seasonal and interannual variations in hydrometeorological elements, energy, and carbon exchange in a larch forest (48°15′24′′N, 106°51′3′′E, altitude: 1338 m) in northeastern Mongolia from 2010 to 2012. The annual air temperature and precipitation ranged from −0.13 °C to −1.2 °C and from 230 mm to 317 mm. The permafrost was found at a depth of 3 m. The dominant component of the energy budget was the sensible heat flux (H) from October to May (H/available energy [R_a] = 0.46; latent heat flux [LE]/R_a = 0.15), while it was the LE from June to September (H/R_a = 0.28, LE/R_a = 0.52). The annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (RE) were −131 to −257 gC m⁻² y⁻¹, 681–703 gC m⁻² y⁻¹, and 423–571 gC m⁻² y⁻¹, respectively. There was a remarkable response of LE and NEE to both vapor pressure deficit and surface soil water content.     

Climate changes during the last glacial termination inferred from diatom-based temperatures and pollen in a sediment core from Längsee (Austria)

A sediment core section from Längsee, a small meromictic lake in the southern Alpine lowland (Carinthia, Austria) close to the Würmian ice margin, was investigated by means of diatoms and pollen. The main aims of the study were to reconstruct water temperature as a signal of climate change during the last glacial termination, compare the aquatic and terrestrial response to the changing climate, and place our findings into a climatic frame on the northern hemispheric scale. A calibration data set (ALPS06) of 116 lakes was constructed using data from newly studied lakes and from two previously published data sets and we established a transfer function for predicting summer epilimnetic water temperatures (SEWT). A locally weighted weighted average regression and calibration model (R _jack ²  = 0.89; RSMEP = 1.82°C) was applied to the fossil diatom assemblages in order to reconstruct SEWT. Three major sections were distinguished in the time window of approximately 19–13 cal ka BP, which fitted well with the oxygen isotope curve and the isotope-event stratigraphy from the Greenland ice-core GRIP. The first section was a warming period (SEWT range from 11.6 to 18.0°C; average 15.8°C = ca. 6°C below present) called the Längsee oscillation, which probably correlates with the warmer sub-section (GS-2b) of the Greenland Stadial 2. The subsequent section represents a climate cooling, called the Längsee cold period (SEWT range between 10.6 and 15.9°C; average 12.9°C), which probably corresponds with the sub-section GS-2a of the Greenland Stadial 2, the Heinrich 1 cold event of the North Atlantic, and partially the Gschnitz Stadial in the Alps. The Längsee cold period shows a tri-partition: Two colder phases are separated by a warmer inter-phase. The passive ordination of the core sample scores along maximum water depth indicated that the Längsee cold period was drier than the Längsee oscillation. Strong short-term fluctuations during the Längsee oscillation and the Längsee cold period indicate climate instability. The third section represented climate warming during the Längsee late glacial interstadial (=Greenland Interstadial 1, GI-1) with an average SEWT of 17.5°C. From the minor climatic fluctuations during this interstadial, mainly indicated by pollen, the fluctuation most likely related to the Gerzensee oscillation showed a SEWT decline. During the early immigration and expansion period of shrubs and trees, aquatic and terrestrial records showed distinct discrepancies that might have arose because of time lags in response and differences in sensitivity.     

中国草地农业气候分区及其饲草栽培适宜性

为了草地农业区域优化发展,依W Koppen世界气候分类途径,进行了中国气候分类及草地农业气候分区,依据相应途径,制作了中国饲草寒冷度分区图和中国饲草炎热度分区图,分析了各饲草气候区适宜的饲草作物种类及管理对策。中国气候及草地农业气候有17个类型,归并为6个饲草气候系统,中国饲草寒冷度分11个区,中国饲草炎热度分8个区。每个气候系统及寒冷度分区和炎热度分区内,分别有适宜的饲草作物,其评价标准为：生态适应、生长状态正常、发挥潜在遗传产量、有经济效益。干旱饲草气候系统发展低密度放牧饲养,湿润饲草气候系统发展规模化集约饲养,为中国草地畜牧业生产模式的基本理论选择。     

Interhemispheric Linkage of Paleoclimate During the Last Glaciation

Combined glacial geologic and palynologic data from the southern Lake District, Seno Reloncaví, and Isla Grande de Chiloé in middle latitudes (40°35’–42°25’S) of the Southern Hemisphere Andes suggest (1) that full-glacial or near-full-glacial climate conditions persisted from about 29,400 to 14,550 ¹⁴C yr BP in late Llanquihue time, (2) that within this late Llanquihue interval mean summer temperature was depressed 6°–8°C compared to modern values during major glacier advances into the outer moraine belt at 29,400, 26,760, 22,295–22,570, and 14,550–14,805 ¹⁴C yr BP , (3) that summer temperature depression was as great during early Llanquihue as during late Llanquihue time, (4) that climate deteriorated from warmer conditions during the early part to colder conditions during the later part of middle Llanquihue time, (5) that superimposed on long-term climate deterioration are Gramineae peaks on Isla Grande de Chiloé that represent cooling at 44,520–47,110 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-11), 32,105–35,764 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-9), 24,895–26,019 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-7), 21,430–22,774 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-5), and 13,040–15,200 ¹⁴C yr BP (T-3), (6) that the initial phase of the glacial/interglacial transition of the last termination involved at least two major steps, one beginning at 14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP and another at 12,700–13,000 ¹⁴ C yr BP , and (7) that a late-glacial climate reversal of ≥2–3° C set in close to 12,200 ¹⁴C yr BP , after an interval of near-interglacial warmth, and continued into Younger Dryas time. The late-glacial climate signal from the southern Chilean Lake District ties into that from proglacial Lago Mascardi in the nearby Argentine Andes, which shows rapid ice recession peaking at 12,400 ¹⁴C yr BP , followed by a reversal of trend that culminated in Younger-Dryas-age glacier readvance at 11,400–10,200 ¹⁴C yr BP . Many full- and late-glacial climate shifts in the southern Lake District match those from New Zealand at nearly the same Southern Hemisphere middle latitudes. At the last glacial maximum (LGM), snowline lowering relative to present-day values was nearly the same in the Southern Alps (875 m) and the Chilean Andes (1000 m). Particularly noteworthy are the new Younger-Dryas-age exposure dates of the Lake Misery moraines in Arthur's Pass in the Southern Alps. Moreover, pollen records from the Waikato lowlands on North Island show that a major vegetation shift at close to 14,700 ¹⁴C yr BP marked the beginning of the last glacial/interglacial transition (Newnham et al. 1989). The synchronous and nearly uniform lowering of snowlines in Southern Hemisphere middle-latitude mountains compared with Northern Hemisphere values suggests global cooling of about the same magnitude in both hemispheres at the LGM. When compared with paleoclimate records from the North Atlantic region, the middle-latitude Southern Hemisphere terrestrial data imply interhemispheric symmetry of the structure and timing of the last glacial/interglacial transition. In both regions atmospheric warming pulses are implicated near the beginning of Oldest Dryas time (～14,600 ¹⁴C yr BP) and near the Oldest Dryas/Bölling transition (～12,700–13,000 ¹⁴ C yr BP ). The second of these warming pulses was coincident with resumption of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation similar to that of the modern mode, with strong formation of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water in the Nordic Seas. In both regions, the maximum Bölling-age warmth was achieved at 12,200–12,500 ¹⁴ C yr BP , and was followed by a reversal in climate trend. In the North Atlantic region, and possibly in middle latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere, this reversal culminated in a Younger-Dryas-age cold pulse. Although changes in ocean circulation can redistribute heat between the hemispheres, they cannot alone account either for the synchronous planetary cooling of the LGM or for the synchronous interhemispheric warming steps of the abrupt glacial-to-interglacial transition. Instead, the dominant interhemispheric climate linkage must feature a global atmospheric signal. The most likely source of this signal is a change in the greenhouse content of the atmosphere. We speculate that the Oldest Dryas warming pulse originated from an increase in atmospheric water-vapor production by half-precession forcing in the tropics. The major thermohaline switch near the Oldest Dryas/Bölling transition then couldhave triggered another increase in tropical water-vapor production to near-interglacial values.     

Leimavo Revisited: Agrarian Land-Use Change in the Highlands of Madagascar

Describing and explaining land-use change is of critical concern in Madagascar, where land transformations such as deforestation and resulting environmental degradation currently capture widespread attention. While the eastern rain forest recedes in the face of swidden cultivators, the highlands demonstrate more constructive transformations. In this paper I present a case study of land-use change in Leimavo, a small village near Ambositra studied in the 1960s by Jean-Pierre Raison. Here, the twentieth century has seen a gradual reduction in irrigated rice cultivation and cattle husbandry, and a boom in market-oriented orange, vegetable, and grain production. In the long term, a historical landscape of grassy hills has been transformed into a productive cultural landscape with woodlots, anti-erosion benching, rice terraces, fruit groves, and diverse crops. Critical factors determining the trajectory of land-use change include regional population pressure, state policies, market incentives, climate variations, and access to land and water resources. These critical factors, or explanations, are linked in the discussion by the use of a simple heuristic device—the range of choice—as a theoretical framework.