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1.
Palaeoclimates across Europe for 6000 y BP were estimated from pollen data using the modern pollen analogue technique constrained
with lake-level data. The constraint consists of restricting the set of modern pollen samples considered as analogues of the
fossil samples to those locations where the implied change in annual precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P–E) is consistent with the regional change in moisture balance as indicated by lakes. An artificial neural network was used
for the spatial interpolation of lake-level changes to the pollen sites, and for mapping palaeoclimate anomalies. The climate
variables reconstructed were mean temperature of the coldest month (T
c
), growing degree days above 5 °C (GDD), moisture availability expressed as the ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (α), and P–E. The constraint improved the spatial coherency of the reconstructed palaeoclimate anomalies, especially for P–E. The reconstructions indicate clear spatial and seasonal patterns of Holocene climate change, which can provide a quantitative
benchmark for the evaluation of palaeoclimate model simulations. Winter temperatures (T
c
) were 1–3 K greater than present in the far N and NE of Europe, but 2–4 K less than present in the Mediterranean region.
Summer warmth (GDD) was greater than present in NW Europe (by 400–800 K day at the highest elevations) and in the Alps, but >400 K day less
than present at lower elevations in S Europe. P–E was 50–250 mm less than present in NW Europe and the Alps, but α was 10–15% greater than present in S Europe and P–E was 50–200 mm greater than present in S and E Europe.
Received: 3 January 1996 / Accepted: 15 July 1996 相似文献
2.
The climate of Namaqualand in the nineteenth century 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Southern African climatic change research is hampered by a lack of long-term historical data sets. This paper aims to extend
the historical climate record for southern Africa to the semi-arid area of Namaqualand in the Northern Cape province of South
Africa. This is achieved through extensive archival research, making use of historical documentary sources such as missionary
journals and letters, traveller’s writings and government reports and letters. References to precipitation and other climatic
conditions have been extracted and categorised, providing a proxy precipitation data set for Namaqualand for the nineteenth
century. Notwithstanding problems of data accuracy and interpretation the reconstruction enables the detection of severe and
extreme periods. Measured meteorological data, available from the late 1870s, was compared to the data set derived from documentary
sources in order to ascertain the accuracy of the data set and monthly rainfall data has been used to identify seasonal anomalies.
Confidence ratings on derived dry and wet periods, where appropriate, have been assigned to each year. The study extends the
geographical area of existing research and extracts the major periods of drought and climatic stress, from the growing body
of historical climate research. The most widespread drought periods affecting the southern and eastern Cape, Namaqualand and
the Kalahari were 1820–1821; 1825–1827; 1834; 1861–1862; 1874–1875; 1880–1883 and 1894–1896. Finally, a possible correspondence is suggested between some of the widespread droughts and the El Nino Southern Oscillation
(ENSO). 相似文献
3.
Weather services base their operational definitions of “present” climate on past observations, using a 30-year normal period
such as 1961–1990 or 1971–2000. In a world with ongoing global warming, however, past data give a biased estimate of the actual
present-day climate. Here we propose to correct this bias with a “delta change” method, in which model-simulated climate changes
and observed global mean temperature changes are used to extrapolate past observations forward in time, to make them representative
of present or future climate conditions. In a hindcast test for the years 1991–2002, the method works well for temperature,
with a clear improvement in verification statistics compared to the case in which the hindcast is formed directly from the
observations for 1961–1990. However, no improvement is found for precipitation, for which the signal-to-noise ratio between
expected anthropogenic changes and interannual variability is much lower than for temperature. An application of the method
to the present (around the year 2007) climate suggests that, as a geographical average over land areas excluding Antarctica,
8–9 months per year and 8–9 years per decade can be expected to be warmer than the median for 1971–2000. Along with the overall
warming, a substantial increase in the frequency of warm extremes at the expense of cold extremes of monthly-to-annual temperature
is expected. 相似文献
4.
Tree rings and climate for the last 680 years in Wulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
A 680-year ring-width chronology of Sabina przewalskii Kom. was developed for Wulan area of northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China. Response function and correlation analyses
showed that spring precipitation (May–June) is the critical limiting factor for tree-ring growth, and temperature in prior
November may also play a role in affecting tree-ring growth. Excessive spring precipitation occurred during AD 1380s–1390s,
1410s–1420s, 1520s–1560s and 1938 to present. Dry springs occurred during AD 1430s–1510s, 1640s–1730s and 1780s–1890s most
of which generally coincided with cold intervals of the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the plateau, suggesting that the LIA climate
on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau might be characterized by three episodes of dry spring and cold autumn. The relatively
driest spring and probably coldest autumn occurred in AD 1710s–1720s, 1787–1797, 1815–1824, 1869–1879 and 1891–1895. The extreme
drought in AD 1787–1797 might result from little monsoon precipitation due to the failure of Asian monsoon in this period.
The tree-ring data produced in this study contribute to the spatial expansion of proxy climate records for the Qinghai-Tibetan
Plateau. 相似文献
5.
Summary The Siberian High is the most important atmospheric centre of action in Eurasia during the winter months. Here its variability
and relationship with temperature and precipitation is investigated for the period 1922 to 2000. The pronounced weakening
of the Siberian High during the last ∼ 20 years is its most remarkable feature. Mean temperature, averaged over middle to
high latitude Asia (30° E–140° E, 30° N–70° N), is correlated with the Siberian High central intensity (SHCI) with correlation
coefficient of − 0.58 (1922–1999), and for precipitation, the correlation coefficient is − 0.44 (1922–1998). Taking the Arctic
Oscillation (AO), the SHCI, the Eurasian teleconnection pattern (EU), and the Southern Oscillation (SO) index into account,
72 percent of the variance in temperature can be explained for the period 1949–1997 (for precipitation the variance is 26
percent), with the AO alone explaining 30 percent of the variance, and the Siberian High contributing 24 percent. The precipitation
variance explained by the Siberian High is only 9.8 percent of the total.
Received January 2, 2001 Revised November 24, 2001 相似文献
6.
Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter 总被引:1,自引:2,他引:1
Public attitudes about climate change reveal a contradiction. Surveys show most Americans believe climate change poses serious
risks but also that reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sufficient to stabilize atmospheric GHG concentrations can
be deferred until there is greater evidence that climate change is harmful. US policymakers likewise argue it is prudent to
wait and see whether climate change will cause substantial economic harm before undertaking policies to reduce emissions.
Such wait-and-see policies erroneously presume climate change can be reversed quickly should harm become evident, underestimating
substantial delays in the climate’s response to anthropogenic forcing. We report experiments with highly educated adults –
graduate students at MIT – showing widespread misunderstanding of the fundamental stock and flow relationships, including
mass balance principles, that lead to long response delays. GHG emissions are now about twice the rate of GHG removal from
the atmosphere. GHG concentrations will therefore continue to rise even if emissions fall, stabilizing only when emissions
equal removal. In contrast, most subjects believe atmospheric GHG concentrations can be stabilized while emissions into the
atmosphere continuously exceed the removal of GHGs from it. These beliefs – analogous to arguing a bathtub filled faster than
it drains will never overflow – support wait-and-see policies but violate conservation of matter. Low public support for mitigation
policies may arise from misconceptions of climate dynamics rather than high discount rates or uncertainty about the impact
of climate change. Implications for education and communication between scientists and nonscientists (the public and policymakers)
are discussed. 相似文献
7.
Summary Tropical North African climate variability is investigated using a Sahel rainfall index and streamflow of the Nile River in
the 20th century. The mechanisms that govern tropical North Africa climate are diagnosed from NCEP reanalysis data in the period 1958–1998:
spatially – using composite and correlation analysis, and temporally – using wavelet co-spectral analysis. The Sahelian climate
is characterised by a decadal rhythm, whilst the mountainous eastern and equatorial regions exhibit interannual cycles. ENSO-modulated
zonal circulations over the Atlantic/Pacific sector are important for decadal variations, and create a climatic polarity between
South America and tropical North Africa as revealed through upper-level velocity potential and convection patterns. A more
localised N–S shift in convection between the Sahel and Guinea coast is associated with the African Easterly Jet. 相似文献
8.
Allison L. Steiner Jeremy S. Pal Sara A. Rauscher Jason L. Bell Noah S. Diffenbaugh Aaron Boone Lisa C. Sloan Filippo Giorgi 《Climate Dynamics》2009,33(6):869-892
Coupling of the Community Land Model (CLM3) to the ICTP Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) substantially improves the simulation
of mean climate over West Africa relative to an older version of RegCM3 coupled to the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme
(BATS). Two 10-year simulations (1992–2001) show that the seasonal timing and magnitude of mean monsoon precipitation more
closely match observations when the new land surface scheme is implemented. Specifically, RegCM3–CLM3 improves the timing
of the monsoon advance and retreat across the Guinean Coast, and reduces a positive precipitation bias in the Sahel and Northern
Africa. As a result, simulated temperatures are higher, thereby reducing the negative temperature bias found in the Guinean
Coast and Sahel in RegCM3–BATS. In the RegCM3–BATS simulation, warmer temperatures in northern latitudes and wetter soils
near the coast create excessively strong temperature and moist static energy gradients, which shifts the African Easterly
Jet further north than observed. In the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation, the migration and position of the African Easterly Jet more
closely match reanalysis winds. This improvement is triggered by drier soil conditions in the RegCM3–CLM3 simulation and an
increase in evapotranspiration per unit precipitation. These results indicate that atmosphere–land surface coupling has the
ability to impact regional-scale circulation and precipitation in regions exhibiting strong hydroclimatic gradients. 相似文献
9.
Haiyan Teng Warren M. Washington Gerald A. Meehl Lawrence E. Buja Gary W. Strand 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(6):601-616
Arctic climate change in the Twenty-first century is simulated by the Community Climate System Model version 3.0 (CCSM3).
The simulations from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) are analyzed using eight (A1B and B1) or five (A2) ensemble
members. The model simulates a reasonable present-day climate and historical climate trend. The model projects a decline of
sea-ice extent in the range of 1.4–3.9% per decade and 4.8–22.2% per decade in winter and summer, respectively, corresponding
to the range of forcings that span the scenarios. At the end of the Twenty-first century, the winter and summer Arctic mean
surface air temperature increases in a range of 4–14°C (B1 and A2) and 0.7–5°C (B1 and A2) relative to the end of the Twentieth
century. The Arctic becomes ice-free during summer at the end of the Twenty-first century in the A2 scenario. Similar to the
observations, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant factor in explaining the variability of the atmosphere and sea ice
in the 1870–1999 historical runs. The AO shifts to the positive phase in response to greenhouse gas forcings in the Twenty-first
century. But the simulated trends in both Arctic mean sea-level pressure and the AO index are smaller than what has been observed.
The Twenty-first century Arctic warming mainly results from the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases. The 1st empirical orthogonal
function (explains 72.2–51.7% of the total variance) of the wintertime surface air temperature during 1870–2099 is characterized
by a strong warming trend and a “polar amplification”-type of spatial pattern. The AO, which plays a secondary role, contributes
to less than 10% of the total variance in both surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. 相似文献
10.
Gregor Betz 《Climatic change》2007,85(1-2):1-9
This essay explores as to whether probabilistic climate forecasting is consistent with the prerequisites of democratic scientific
policy advice. It argues that, given the boundaries of our current knowledge, it is highly problematic to assign exact, unconditional
probabilities to possible values of climate sensitivity. The range of possible–instead of probable–future climate scenarios
is what climate policy should be based on. 相似文献
11.
Observed and projected climate change in Taiwan 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Summary
This study examined the secular climate change characteristics in Taiwan over the past 100 years and the relationship with
the global climate change. Estimates for the likelihood of future climate changes in Taiwan were made based on the projection
from the IPCC climate models.
In the past 100 years, Taiwan experienced an island-wide warming trend (1.0–1.4 °C/100 years). Both the annual and daily temperature
ranges have also increased. The warming in Taiwan is closely connected to a large-scale circulation and SAT fluctuations,
such as the “cool ocean warm land” phenomenon. The water vapor pressure has increased significantly and could have resulted
in a larger temperature increase in summer. The probability for the occurrence of high temperatures has increased and the
result suggests that both the mean and variance in the SAT in Taiwan have changed significantly since the beginning of the
20th century. Although, as a whole, the precipitation in Taiwan has shown a tendency to increase in northern Taiwan and to
decrease in southern Taiwan in the past 100 years, it exhibits a more complicated spatial pattern. The changes occur mainly
in either the dry or rainy season and result in an enhanced seasonal cycle. The changes in temperature and precipitation are
consistent with the weakening of the East Asian monsoon.
Under consideration of both the warming effect from greenhouse gases and the cooling effect from aerosols, all projections
from climate models indicated a warmer climate near Taiwan in the future. The projected increase in the area-mean temperature
near Taiwan ranged from 0.9–2.7 °C relative to the 1961–1990 averaged temperature, when the CO2 concentration increased to 1.9 times the 1961–1990 level. These simulated temperature increases were statistically significant
and can be attributed to the radiative forcing associated with the increased concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols.
The projected changes in precipitation were within the range of natural variability for all five models. There is no evidence
supporting the possibility of precipitation changes near Taiwan based on the simulations from five IPCC climate models.
Received February 5, 2001 Revised July 30, 2001 相似文献
12.
Observations indicated that for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) there have been eastward displacements of the zonal wind stress (WS) anomalies and surface heat flux (short wave heat flux and latent heat flux) anomalies during El Niño episodes in the 1981–1995 regime relative to the earlier regime of 1961–1975 (without corresponding displacements during La Niña episodes). Our numerical experiments with the Zebiak–Cane coupled model generally reproduced such displacements when the model climatological fields were replaced by the observed climatologies [of sea surface temperature (SST), surface WS and surface wind atmospheric divergence] and simulated climatologies (of oceanic surface layer currents and associated upwelling) for the 1981–1995 regime. Sensitivity tests indicated that the background atmospheric state played a much more important role than the background ocean state in producing the displacements, which enhanced the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña in the later regime. The later regime climatology state resulted in the eastward shifts in the ENSO system (WS and SST) only during El Niño, through the eastward shift of the atmosphere convergence heating rate in the coupled model. The ENSO period and ENSO predictability were also enhanced in the coupled model under the later regime climatology. That the change in the mean state of the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean after the mid 1970s could have produced the observed changes in ENSO properties is consistent with our findings. 相似文献
13.
Last Glacial Maximum climate of the former Soviet Union and Mongolia reconstructed from pollen and plant macrofossil data 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
P. E. Tarasov O. Peyron J. Guiot S. Brewer V. S. Volkova L. G. Bezusko N. I. Dorofeyuk E. V. Kvavadze I. M. Osipova N. K. Panova 《Climate Dynamics》1999,15(3):227-240
An improved concept of the best analogues method was used to reconstruct the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate from a set
of botanical records from the former Soviet Union and Mongolia. Terrestrial pollen and macrofossil taxa were grouped into
broad classes – plant functional types (PFTs), defined by the ecological and climatic parameters used in the BIOME1 model.
PFT scores were then calibrated in terms of modern climate using 1245 surface pollen spectra from Eurasia and North America.
In contrast to individual taxa, which exhibit great variability and may not be present in the palaeoassemblages, even in suitable
climates, PFTs are more characteristic of the vegetation types. The modified method thus allows climate reconstruction at
time intervals with partial direct analogues of modern vegetation (e.g. the LGM). At 18 kBP, mean temperatures were 20–29 °C
colder than today in winter and 5–11 °C colder in summer in European Russia and Ukraine. Sites from western Georgia show negative,
but moderate temperature anomalies compared to today: 8–11 °C in January and 5–7 °C in July. LGM winters were 7–15 °C colder
and summers were 1–7 °C colder in Siberia and Mongolia. Annual precipitation sums were 50–750 mm lower than today across northern
Eurasia, suggesting a weakening of the Atlantic and Pacific influences. Reconstructed drought index shows much drier LGM conditions
in northern and mid-latitude Russia, but similar to or slightly wetter than today around the Black Sea and in Mongolia, suggesting
compensation of precipitation losses by lower-than-present evaporation.
Received: 11 May 1998 / Accepted: 25 September 1998 相似文献
14.
Potential climate change impact on wind energy resources in northern Europe: analyses using a regional climate model 总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7
There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable
energy sources including wind energy. This paper presents dynamically downscaled near-surface wind fields and examines the
impact of climate change on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: Simulated
wind fields from the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) with boundary conditions derived from ECHAM4/OPYC3
AOGCM and the HadAM3H atmosphere-only GCM exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in reanalysis data products
during the control period (1961–1990). The near-surface wind speeds calculated for a climate change projection period of 2071–2100
are higher than during the control run for two IPCC emission scenarios (A2, B2) for simulations conducted using boundary conditions
from ECHAM4/OPYC3. The RCAO simulations conducted using boundary conditions from ECHAM4/OPYC3 indicate evidence for a small
increase in the annual wind energy resource over northern Europe between the control run and climate change projection period
and for more substantial increases in energy density during the winter season. However, the differences between the RCAO simulations
for the climate projection period and the control run are of similar magnitude to differences between the RCAO fields in the
control period and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Additionally, the simulations show a high degree of sensitivity to the boundary
conditions, and simulations conducted using boundary conditions from HadAM3H exhibit evidence of slight declines or no change
in wind speed and energy density between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. Hence, the uncertainty of the projected wind changes is
relatively high. 相似文献
15.
On summing the components of radiative forcing of climate change 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Radiative forcing is a useful concept in determining the potential influence of a particular mechanism of climate change.
However, due to the increased number of forcing agents identified over the past decade, the total radiative forcing is difficult
to assess. By assigning a range of probability distribution functions to the individual radiative forcings and using a Monte-Carlo
approach, we estimate the total radiative forcing since pre-industrial times including all quantitative radiative forcing
estimates to date. The resulting total radiative forcing has a 75–97% probability of being positive (or similarly a 3–25%
probability of being negative), with mean radiative forcing ranging from +0.68 to +1.34 W m−2, and median radiative forcing ranging from +0.94 to +1.39 W m−2.
Received: 14 March 2001 / Accepted: 1 June 2001 相似文献
16.
Summary Tropical ocean thermocline variability is studied using gridded data assimilated by an ocean model in the period 1950–2000.
The dominant patterns and variability are identified using EOF analysis applied to E–W depth slices of sea temperatures averaged
over the tropics. After removing the annual cycle, an east–west ‘see-saw’ with an interannual to decadal rhythm is the leading
mode in each of the tropical basins. In the case of the leading mode in the Pacific, the thermocline oscillation forms a dipole
structure, but in the (east) Atlantic and (southwest) Indian Ocean there is a single center of action. The interaction of
the ocean thermocline and atmospheric Walker circulations is studied through cross-modulus analysis of wavelet-filtered EOF
time scores.
Our study demonstrates how tropical ocean thermocline variability contributes to zonal circulation anomalies in the atmosphere.
The equatorial Pacific thermocline oscillation explains 62 and 53% of the variability of the Pacific and Atlantic zonal overturning
circulations, the latter driving convective polarity between North Africa and South America. The Pacific sea-saw leads the
Atlantic zonal circulation by a few months. 相似文献
17.
Volcanic and solar impacts on climate since 1700 总被引:6,自引:0,他引:6
Numerical experiments have been carried out with a two-dimensional sector averaged global climate model with a detailed radiative
scheme in order to assess the possible impact of solar and volcanic activities on the Earth’s surface temperature at the secular
time scale from 1700 to 1992. Our results indicate that while the general trend of the observed temperature variations on
the century time scale can be generated in response to both the solar and volcanic forcings, these are clearly not sufficient
to explain the observed 20th century warming and more specifically the warming trend which started at the beginning of the
1970s. However, the lack of volcanism during the period 1925–1960 could account, at least partly, for the observed warming
trend in this period. Finally, while Schlesinger and Ramankutty (1994) assumed that random forcing could not be a possible
source of the 65–70 year oscillation they detected in the global climate system, our results indicate that the volcanic forcing
over the past 150 years could have introduced an oscillation of around 70 years in the Earth’s surface temperature.
Received: 25 August 1997/Accepted: 27 November 1998 相似文献
18.
Modelling climate change impacts on maize growth and development in the Czech Republic 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Summary The crop growth model CERES-Maize is used to estimate the direct (through enhanced fertilisation effect of ambient CO2) and indirect (through changed climate conditions) effects of increased concentration of atmospheric CO2 on maize yields. The analysis is based on multi-year crop model simulations run with daily weather series obtained alternatively
by a direct modification of observed weather series and by a stochastic weather generator. The crop model is run in two settings:
stressed yields are simulated in water and nutrient limited conditions, potential yields in water and nutrient unlimited conditions.
The climate change scenario was constructed using the output from the ECHAM3/T42 model (temperature), regression relationships
between temperature and solar radiation, and an expert judgement (precipitation).
Results: (i) After omitting the two most extreme misfits, the standard error between the observed and modelled yields is 11%.
(ii) The direct effect of doubled CO2: The stressed yields would increase by 36–41% in the present climate and by 61–66% in the 2 × CO2 climate. The potential yields would increase only by 9–10% as the improved water use efficiency does not apply. (iii) The
indirect effect of doubled CO2: The stressed yields would decrease by 27–29% (14–16%) at present (doubled) ambient CO2 concentration. The increased temperature shortens the phenological phases and does not allow for the optimal development
of the crop. The simultaneous decrease of precipitation and increase of temperature and solar radiation deepen the water stress,
thereby reducing the yields. The reduction of the potential yields is significantly smaller as the effect of the increased
water stress does not apply. (iv) If both direct and indirect effects of doubled CO2 are considered, the stressed yields should increase by 17–18%, and the potential yields by 5–14%. (v) The decrease of the
stressed yields due to the indirect effect may be reduced by applying earlier planting dates.
Received March 9, 2001 Revised September 25, 2001 相似文献
19.
Agricultural drought in a future climate: results from 15 global climate models participating in the IPCC 4th assessment 总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8
Guiling Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2005,25(7-8):739-753
This study examines the impact of greenhouse gas warming on soil moisture based on predictions of 15 global climate models
by comparing the after-stabilization climate in the SRESA1b experiment with the pre-industrial control climate. The models
are consistent in predicting summer dryness and winter wetness in only part of the northern middle and high latitudes. Slightly
over half of the models predict year-round wetness in central Eurasia and/or year-round dryness in Siberia and mid-latitude
Northeast Asia. One explanation is offered that relates such lack of seasonality to the carryover effect of soil moisture
storage from season to season. In the tropics and subtropics, a decrease of soil moisture is the dominant response. The models
are especially consistent in predicting drier soil over the southwest North America, Central America, the Mediterranean, Australia,
and the South Africa in all seasons, and over much of the Amazon and West Africa in the June–July–August (JJA) season and
the Asian monsoon region in the December–January–February (DJF) season. Since the only major areas of future wetness predicted
with a high level of model consistency are part of the northern middle and high latitudes during the non-growing season, it
is suggested that greenhouse gas warming will cause a worldwide agricultural drought. Over regions where there is considerable
consistency among the analyzed models in predicting the sign of soil moisture changes, there is a wide range of magnitudes
of the soil moisture response, indicating a high degree of model dependency in terrestrial hydrological sensitivity. A major
part of the inter-model differences in the sensitivity of soil moisture response are attributable to differences in land surface
parameterization. 相似文献
20.
T. M. Lenton M. S. Williamson N. R. Edwards R. Marsh A. R. Price A. J. Ridgwell J. G. Shepherd S. J. Cox 《Climate Dynamics》2006,26(7-8):687-711
A new Earth system model, GENIE-1, is presented which comprises a 3-D frictional geostrophic ocean, phosphate-restoring marine biogeochemistry, dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice, land surface physics and carbon cycling, and a seasonal 2-D energy-moisture balance atmosphere. Three sets of model climate parameters are used to explore the robustness of the results and for traceability to earlier work. The model versions have climate sensitivity of 2.8–3.3°C and predict atmospheric CO2 close to present observations. Six idealized total fossil fuel CO2 emissions scenarios are used to explore a range of 1,100–15,000 GtC total emissions and the effect of rate of emissions. Atmospheric CO2 approaches equilibrium in year 3000 at 420–5,660 ppmv, giving 1.5–12.5°C global warming. The ocean is a robust carbon sink of up to 6.5 GtC year−1. Under ‘business as usual’, the land becomes a carbon source around year 2100 which peaks at up to 2.5 GtC year−1. Soil carbon is lost globally, boreal vegetation generally increases, whilst under extreme forcing, dieback of some tropical and sub-tropical vegetation occurs. Average ocean surface pH drops by up to 1.15 units. A Greenland ice sheet melt threshold of 2.6°C local warming is only briefly exceeded if total emissions are limited to 1,100 GtC, whilst 15,000 GtC emissions cause complete Greenland melt by year 3000, contributing 7 m to sea level rise. Total sea-level rise, including thermal expansion, is 0.4–10 m in year 3000 and ongoing. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shuts down in two out of three model versions, but only under extreme emissions including exotic fossil fuel resources. 相似文献