CLIMAP SSTs re-revisited

Since the 1976 publication of the CLIMAP ice age sea surface temperature (SST) reconstruction showing a 1–2 ^∘C tropical cooling a substantial debate has arisen as to whether tropical SSTs may instead have been 4–5^∘ colder than present. Herein I review the arguments for large SST variations and question a number of key findings, particularly the validity of ice-age coral SST estimates and “down-projecting” tropical snowline changes to the surface. GCM results indicate that an intermediate solution requiring ∼2.5 ^∘C warm pool cooling is consistent with most quantitative low elevation surface land data and is small enough to allow the persistence of tropical biota in the ocean during glacial times. The proposal reduces estimated ice-age climate sensitivity (for a doubling of CO₂) from a “high-end” sensitivity of about 4.5 ^∘C (for a 5–6 ^∘C tropical cooling) to a “mid-range” sensitivity of about 3.0 ^∘C for a 2.5 ^∘C warm-pool decrease. Received: 28 July 1999 /Accepted: 12 August 1999     

A parameterization of the boundary layer of a tropical cyclone

In an earlier paper by one of the authors (Smith, 1968), a momentum integral method was developed to parameterize the gross constraint imposed by the surface boundary layer of a steady, axisymmetric, tropical cyclone on the meridional circulation within the vortex itself. Specifically, the method provides an effective means of estimating the radial variation of mean upflow/downflow induced by the boundary layer, compatible with a prescribed radial variation of azimuthal velocity just above the boundary layer,V _gr. However, it relies on a judicious choice of vertical profiles of radial and azimuthal velocity components within the boundary layer. An especially suitable set of profiles is discussed herein; these are Ekman-like profiles in which turbulent mixing is characterized by a vertically constant eddy diffusivityK _M , matched to a constant stress sublayer just above the sea surface. An attractive feature of the formulation is that a suitable value forK _M as a function of radius, which is extremely difficult to extract from observational data, can be calculated when the state of the sea surface, described by a roughness lengthZ ₀, is prescribed. Although observations ofZ ₀ at high wind speeds are not yet available, the effect of radial variations in sea surface roughness can be assessed and it is shown that these affect the upflow to a significant degree.     

A numerical diffusion model for continuous releases

The purpose of this study was to develop a diffusion model for a continuous point source which takes into account the increase of wind speed with height, and to compare this model with short-range diffusion experiments. The main problem was to find a good expression for the vertical diffusion coefficient. It turned out that good agreement between theory and experiment could only be obtained by introducing a settling speed W for the tracer combined with a conventional expression for the vertical diffusion (K(Z) = K ₀Z^1−p). An empirical relation was found between K ₀ and τ _vU and between W and bar σ _vU².     

Relative roles of climate sensitivity and forcing in defining the ocean circulation response to climate change

The response of the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to increased greenhouse gas forcing is examined using a coupled model of intermediate complexity, including a dynamic 3-D ocean subcomponent. Parameters are the increase in CO₂ forcing (with stabilization after a specified time interval) and the model’s climate sensitivity. In this model, the cessation of deep sinking in the north “Atlantic” (hereinafter, a “collapse”), as indicated by changes in the MOC, behaves like a simple bifurcation. The final surface air temperature (SAT) change, which is closely predicted by the product of the radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, determines whether a collapse occurs. The initial transient response in SAT is largely a function of the forcing increase, with higher sensitivity runs exhibiting delayed behavior; accordingly, high CO₂-low sensitivity scenarios can be assessed as a recovering or collapsing circulation shortly after stabilization, whereas low CO₂-high sensitivity scenarios require several hundred additional years to make such a determination. We also systemically examine how the rate of forcing, for a given CO₂ stabilization, affects the ocean response. In contrast with previous studies based on results using simpler ocean models, we find that except for a narrow range of marginally stable to marginally unstable scenarios, the forcing rate has little impact on whether the run collapses or recovers. In this narrow range, however, forcing increases on a time scale of slow ocean advective processes results in weaker declines in overturning strength and can permit a run to recover that would otherwise collapse.     

Summer boundary-layer height at the plateau site of Dome’C,antarctica

Measurements of the mean and turbulent structure of the planetary boundary layer using a sodar and a sonic anemometer, and radiative measurements using a radiometer, were carried out in the summer of 1999–2000 at the Antarctic plateau station of Dome C during a two-month period. At Dome C strong ground-based inversions dominate for most of the year. However, in spite of the low surface temperatures (between −50 and −20 °C), and the surface always covered by snow and ice, a regular daytime boundary-layer evolution, similar to that observed at mid-latitudes, was observed during summertime. The mixed-layer height generally reaches 200–300 m at 1300–1400 LST in high summer (late December, early January); late in the summer (end of January to February), as the solar elevation decreases, it reduces to 100–200 m. A comparison between the mixed-layer height estimated from sodar measurements and that calculated using a mixed-layer growth model shows a rather satisfactory agreement if we assign a value of 0.01–0.02 m s⁻¹ to the subsidence velocity at the top of the mixed layer, and a value of 0.003–0.004 K m⁻¹ to the potential temperature gradient above the mixed layer.     

Tropical cyclones and polar lows: Velocity,size, and energy scales,and relation to the 26°C cyclone origin criteria

The goal of this paper is to quantitatively formulate some necessary conditions for the development of intense atmospheric vortices. Specifically, these criteria are discussed for tropical cyclones (TC) and polar lows (PL) by using bulk formulas for fluxes of momentum, sensible heating, and latent heating between the ocean and the atmosphere. The velocity scale is used in two forms: (1) as expressed through the buoyancy flux b and the Coriolis parameter l_c for rotating fluids convection, and (2) as expressed with the cube of velocity times the drag coefficient through the formula for total kinetic energy dissipation in the atmospheric boundary layer. In the quasistationary case the dissipation equals the generation of the energy. In both cases the velocity scale can be expressed through temperature and humidity differences between the ocean and the atmosphere in terms of the reduced gravity, and both forms produce quite comparable velocity scales. Using parameters b and l_c, we can form scales of the area and, by adding the mass of a unit air column, a scale of the total kinetic energy as well. These scales nicely explain the much smaller size of a PL, as compared to a TC, and the total kinetic energy of a TC is of the order 10¹⁸-10¹⁹ J. It will be shown that wind of 33 m s^-1 is produced when the total enthalpy fluxes between the ocean and the atmosphere are about 700 W m^-2 for a TC and 1700 W m^-2 for a PL, in association with the much larger role of the latent heat in the first case and the stricter geostrophic constraints and larger static stability in the second case. This replaces the mystical role of 26^oC as a criterion for TC origin. The buoyancy flux, a product of the reduced gravity and the wind speed, together with the atmospheric static stability, determines the rate of the penetrating convection. It is known from the observations that the formation time for a PL reaching an altitude of 5--6 km can be only a few hours, and a day, or even half a day, for a TC reaching 15--18 km. These two facts allow us to construct curves on the plane of T^s and ΔT=T_s-T_a to determine possibilities for forming an intense vortex. Here, T_a is the atmospheric temperature at the height z=10 m. A PL should have ΔT>20^oC in accordance with the observations and numerical simulations. The conditions for a TC are not so straightforward but our diagram shows that the temperature difference of a few degrees, or possibly even a fraction of a degree, might be sufficient for TC development for a range of static stabilities and development times.     

Insolation estimates for the LITFASS area derived from high resolution satellite data

Summary ?For the LITFASS-98 experiment, from June 1 until June 30, 1998, the spatially resolved insolation at surface could be computed from NOAA-14 AVHRR data applying the modular analysis scheme SESAT (Strahlungs- und Energiebilanzen aus Satellitendaten). The satellite inferred insolation for this period shows for clear-sky regions a good agreement with surface based observations with a rms error of 76 Wm⁻². For cloudy conditions the insolation is overestimated with respect to ground based observations, with a rms error between 83 and 118 Wm⁻², depending on the cloud optical thickness. This overestimation can be explained by the surface heterogeneity, leading to underestimated cloud optical thickness, and also by a fixed relative humidity below clouds (55%, dry atmosphere) and a fixed horizontal visibility (50 km, clear atmosphere). A detailed study of comparable scales in space and time, considering the different observation geometries and sampling intervals, shows that a 30 min ground based observation can be compared with a 8 × 8 km² mean by the satellite data. Received July 12, 2001; revised April 29, 2002; accepted June 7, 2002     

Q矢量的改进与完善

在完全考虑非绝热加热项潜热作用的前提下，从原始方程出发，推导出改进后的湿Q矢量(以下记为Q^M)的表达式以及用其散度作强迫项的ω方程，并结合一次梅雨锋暴雨天气过程将改进前、后的湿Q矢量诊断能力进行比较，结果发现：(1)改进后的湿Q矢量对同时刻的地面降水的反映能力较原湿Q矢量(Q^*)有显著的提高。(2)在整个梅雨锋暴雨过程中，600hPa高度上的改进后的湿Q矢量散度辐合场的辐合强度及其辐合中心的位置对同时刻的地面实际降水的强度及雨区位置都有非常好的指示作用。     

The impact of compensatory measures on public support for carbon taxation: an experimental study in Sweden

This study aims at better understanding how, and to what extent, perceptions of a policy instrument’s distributional effects impact on policy support, focusing on the case of CO₂ taxes on petrol in Sweden. Through a large-scale (N?=?5000) randomized survey experiment with a 2?×?3 factorial design, the extent to which perceptions of fairness determine attitudes to a suggested increase of the Swedish CO₂ tax is explored. Furthermore, the study considers whether these effects change with the level of the suggested tax increase, as well as whether negative sentiments can be alleviated by combining it with a compensatory measure in the shape of a simultaneous income tax cut financed by the revenues from the tax increase. The results show that a higher tax increase is both viewed as more unfair and enjoys weaker support. Furthermore, compensatory measures can be a powerful policy design tool to increase perceptions of the policy as fair, but the effect of compensation on policy support is conditioned by the individual’s left–right ideological position. Whereas people self-identifying to the right react favourably to compensatory measures, people self-identifying to the left become less supportive of a tax increase when combined with a simultaneous cut in income taxes.

Key policy insights

• Perceptions of fairness are highly important for explaining public support for climate policy tools, specifically CO₂ taxes.

• Compensatory measures can be a powerful policy design tool to increase perceptions of the policy as less unfair.

• However, the effect of compensatory measures on policy support is conditioned by ideological position, and only successful among people to the ideological right.

• In contexts dominated by right-wing ideals, a combination of a tax and a compensatory scheme may be a successful route forward towards increased climate policy support.

• In left-oriented contexts the results imply that a CO₂ tax without compensation seems more likely to increase support.

     

The effect of ekman suction on a flow over a shallow topography in the beta plane

The effect of bottom Ekman layer suction on a homogeneous, constant depth, eastwards, low Rossby number flow over a shallow bottom topography in the beta plane is studied. The governing vorticity equation is obtained by expanding the velocities in the continuity and momentum equations in powers of the Rossby number, ?, and matching the vertical velocity with the vertical velocity at the outer edge of the bottom Ekman layer obtained from the Ekman layer solution. The suction effect is then linearized using an Oseen approxiamation and the resulting linear model is solved using Fourier transforms with the requirement that the solution behave like a vortex near the origin which is equivalent to the effect of an isolated bump, i.e., a Green's function solution is obtained. An analytical solution is thus, obtained in integral form and then numerically integrated. The effect of Ekman suction is found to be a damping of the downstream Rossby waves in a distance of order $\text{2√2U/f}{}_0\text{E}{}^{\mathrm{<mtext>1</mtext><mtext>2</mtext>}}$, an increased upstream influence, and a counterclockwise rotation of the closed streamline region about the origin. It is pointed out that the vortex solutions can be superimposed in order to obtain the solution for flow over topographies of finite horizontal text. This technique was used to compute the flow over a right circular cylinder. The results agree favorably with the experimental results of McCartney (1975).     

Investigation about the dependence of spectral diffuse-to-direct-beam irradiance ratio on atmospheric turbidity and solar zenith angle

Summary The modifications of the solar spectral diffuse and direct-beam irradiances as well as the diffuse-to-direct-beam ratio, E_dλ/E_bλ, as a function of the aerosol optical depth, AOD, and solar zenith angle, SZA, is investigated. The E_dλ/E_bλ ratios decrease rapidly with wavelength and exponential curves in the form E_dλ/E_bλ = aλ^−b can be fitted with a great accuracy. These curves are strongly modified by the solar spectrum distribution, which is affected by the aerosol loading, aerosol optical properties and SZA. The spectral dependence of the above E_dλ/E_bλ ratios in logarithmic coordinates does not yield a straight line, while a significant departure from the linearity is revealed. The reasons for this departure are investigated in detail and it is established that the aerosol physical properties such as single scattering albedo and size distribution along with the effect of SZA are responsible. These parameters strongly affect the scattering processes in the atmosphere and as a consequence the diffuse spectral distribution. The E_dλ/E_bλ ratio, which is an indicator of the atmospheric transmittance (King, 1979), exhibits a strong wavelength and aerosol-loading dependence. The observed differences between turbid and clear atmospheres constitute a manifestation of contrasting air properties and influence solar irradiance spectra. The present work aims at investigating the effect of atmospheric turbidity and SZA on the E_dλ/E_bλ ratio. For this reason, two distinct cases are examined: one having different atmospheric turbidity conditions but same SZA and a second having different SZAs and same atmospheric turbidity levels.     

A simple heat-salt oscillator

A theoretical study is made of a simple mixed-layer model, in the form of a well-mixed constant-depth layer, forced from above by a heat flux k_T(T_A−T) and salinity flux k_S(S_A−S), where T_A and S_A are two reference values and T and S the temperature and salinity of the layer. The layer has a turbulent exchange of heat and salt with underlying water, kept at constant temperature and salinity, which is small in a statically stable case; large in a statically unstable case. If k_T>k_S, self-sustained oscillations may occur. In one cycle, a fast temperature rise, a slower salinity increase, and a final relaxation when the layer adjusts to the conditions of the underlying water, are observed.     

The Multi-Scale Structure of the Australian Cool Changes

Summary In Southern Australia summertime deep cold fronts are frequently preceded by a shallow cold frontal line connected to a prefrontal lower tropospheric trough. The advance of this line defines a “cool change” which in many cases causes severe weather events. The goal of this paper is to analyze the multi-scale structure of these cool changes using aircraft observations and synoptic-scale analyses. The aircraft measurements on cross-frontal tracks of horizontal lengths of up to 300 km are performed with an average resolution of 3 to 4 m along the track. Thus a multi-scale analysis from micro-scale events up to the synoptic-scale phenomena can be presented. All flights and thus all meso- and micro-scale analyses are performed over water only. The obviously very different characteristics of the cool change structure elements over land are not investigated. The synoptic analyses for one very typical case show a prefrontal trough as characterized by its position in relation to the main deep cold front, its source region in Western Australia and its extent to the southeast. Fields of strong wind shear, temperature gradients, vertical wind and Q-vectors are displayed. The meso-β-scale x, z-cross-sections derived from two aircraft missions (data of the second one in brackets) show: a shallow cold front with a 160 (60) km wide transition zone in which the near surface potential temperature drops rather steadily by 9 °C (20 °C); a shallow feeder flow topped by a strong inversion with a vertical gradient of potential temperature up to 5 °C/100 m between the top of the feeder flow at 400 (200) m and 1500 (700) m; a cross-frontal circulation expressed by the ageostrophic wind components u _ϕ,subscale and w with a center at 1200 m over the frontal edge of the feeder flow (for one mission only); a strong shear of the along-frontal wind component v _ϕ with a large increase of the negative v _ϕ-values with height, which very well fits to the synoptic-scale view of the wave structure of the geostrophic wind (well-known from the upper level synoptic charts) at different heights; a jet core of this along-frontal wind in the center of the cross-frontal circulation, again for one mission only. A very striking example of a micro-scale event is an approximately 1 km wide head of a frontal squall line. It shows dramatic changes of all meteorological parameters. The event is displayed in a horizontal domain of 4 km with full resolution (∼ 4 m). Derivatives of the measured parameters in the cross-frontal direction add information to the space series of the parameters themselves. Deformation frontogenesis of potential temperature and specific humidity show very large values on the scale resolved here. Fortunately the squall line could be sampled again at the same height, but in a somewhat degenerated state 1? h later. Received September 3, 1999 Revised December 14, 1999     

Local advection processes in the surface layer of the marginal ice zone

Micro-scale turbulent transport processes over the marginal ice zone have been studied by use of a two-dimensional numerical model. It has been found that internal boundary layers (IBLs) of horizontal mean velocity, temperature, and specific humidity reveal a near field and a far field. In the near field, the change in surface roughness dominates the height and growth rate of a velocity IBL. The change in surface heat flux governs the near field of a temperature and humidity IBL. In the far field, approximately x/¦L _*2 ¦ ~ 20, where L _*2 is the downstream Obukhov length, the downstream stratification more and more influences the growth rate of IBLs basically by modifying the eddy viscosity.Above more complex terrain consisting of an ensemble of ice strips and leads, a merging height h ^M develops, below which the horizontal variability of the surface modification is clearly observed; h ^M varies with the length scale L of surface modification approximately in proportion to h ^M /L ~ 1/20 – 1/10, as a rule of thumb. Above the merging height, an enveloping IBL exists, whose growth depends on the ice cover, i.e., on the integral of surface modification, but changes very little with L.Local advection of momentum, heat, and moisture clearly affects the local surface heat fluxes. Sensible and latent heat fluxes are found to show also a near and far field. However, if areally averaged surface fluxes are to be deduced from grid-averaged flow variables, then details of local advection can be neglected to a reasonably good approximation.     

On the radiation characteristics of Antarctic Sea Ice

Abstract

Radiative measurements were carried out continuously during a cruise from Australia to Antarctica during austral summer 1995/96. Both shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes were measured. Some of the results are:

• The incoming solar radiation had a mean value of 217 W m^–2; this was a relatively weak value due to the large amount of fractional cloud cover observed. The sun was, for a large part of the trip, above the horizon for 24 hours a day.

• The reflectivity varied widely, not only as a function of sea‐ice concentration, but also as a function of ice type.

• Snow covered pack ice gave the highest albedo values (<70%), while flooded sea ice and thin ice reflected much less (<30%).

• For each sea‐ice type, short term observations showed a good relationship between albedo and ice concentration.

• The albedo increased with decreasing solar elevation.

• The net longwave radiation was negative (mean –27 W m–2); this small absolute value is due to a high amount of fractional cloud cover. There was a weak diurnal variation with a maximum loss (–33 W m^–2) in the early afternoon.

• On the average, the net radiation was positive for 17 hours, and negative for 7 hours a day. However, the duration of a positive balance depended strongly on the surface albedo.

• For the observed albedo values, modelling results showed that the net radiation was always positive when averaged over a day. The magnitude, however, depended strongly on the surface albedo, varying by more than the factor of three.

     

Measurement of the photodissociation coefficient of NO2 in the atmosphere: I. Method and surface measurements

An instrument, specifically designed for measurements from a balloon platform in the stratosphere, has been used to obtain ground-level values of the atmospheric photodissociation coefficient of nitrogen dioxide, J _{NO 2}.A typical clear-sky value is 8.0×10^-3 s^-1 when the solar zenith angle is 40°. Measurements were made as a function of solar zenith angle and correlated with a calibrated Eppley UV radiometer. It is shown that J _{NO 2}may be expressed as a simple function of the radiometer output so that estimates of J _{NO 2}can be made using just an upward looking radiometer to an accuracy of about 20%. The measurements are also found to be in good agreement with calculations of J _{NO 2}using a simplified isotropic multiple scattering computer routine.     

Is there a stratospheric radiative feedback in global warming simulations?

The radiative impacts of the stratosphere in global warming simulations are investigated using abrupt CO₂ quadrupling experiments of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), with a focus on stratospheric temperature and water vapor. It is found that the stratospheric temperature change has a robust bullhorn-like zonal-mean pattern due to a strengthening of the stratospheric overturning circulation. This temperature change modifies the zonal mean top-of-the-atmosphere energy balance, but the compensation of the regional effects leads to an insignificant global-mean radiative feedback (?0.02 ± 0.04 W m^?2 K^?1). The stratospheric water vapor concentration generally increases, which leads to a weak positive global-mean radiative feedback (0.02 ± 0.01 W m^?2 K^?1). The stratospheric moistening is related to mixing of elevated upper-tropospheric humidity, and, to a lesser extent, to change in tropical tropopause temperature. Our results indicate that the strength of the stratospheric water vapor feedback is noticeably larger in high-top models than in low-top ones. The results here indicate that although its radiative impact as a forcing adjustment is significant, the stratosphere makes a minor contribution to the overall climate feedback in CMIP5 models.     

Sensitivity of ADOM dry deposition velocities to input parameters: A comparison with measurements for SO2 and NO2 over three land use types

Abstract

Dry deposition velocity measurements of SO₂ and NO₂ over a deciduous forest, a carrot field and a snow surface are compared with estimates obtained from the dry deposition module in the regional Eulerian Acid Deposition and Oxidant Model (ADOM). The comparison with measurements taken in the fall and winter shows large model overestimates, sometimes as large as a factor of 5. The NO₂ estimates are particularly poor and support existing evidence that models that employ the constant flux assumption for NO₂ are inadequate. The canopy and the snow surface resistances are the largest contributors to the total resistances for SO₂ and NO₂, except for situations in which some of the snow turns into liquid water, when the aerodynamic resistance becomes important.

Increasing the magnitudes, taken from measurements, of the ADOM original values for the stomatal, cuticle, ground and snow resistances and decreasing the NO₂ mesophyll resistance and the Leaf Area Index (LAI) yield improved model results, particularly for SO₂, reducing the error by almost a factor of 5 at times. The new estimates compare favourably with those from a model that includes Wesely's canopy resistance parametrization. Over snow the NO₂ estimates are improved by as much as a factor of 6. Observed deposition velocities for SO₂ vary from 0 to 0.65 cm s^?2 over a deciduous forest, 0 to 0.60 cm s^?2 over a carrot field and are generally less than 0.05 cm s^?2 over snow.