SWAT模型在伊犁河上游缺资料区的应用

 在分布式水文模型中,探索产生分布式降水数据的方法是该领域研究的热点之一,发展基于水文物理过程的模型校准方法是实践PUB的热点与难点。基于SWAT分布式水文模型,以资料稀缺的伊犁河上游为研究区域,针对流域的水资源评价关键问题,首先准确描述区域的降水空间分布特征,并基于流域水文过程采用综合流域特征、多时间尺度、多变量和多站点的适宜性模型校准新方法,取得了满意的模拟结果,表明模型较好地再现了流域的水文过程。另外,完善水文机理研究,提高降水及下垫面相关参数的观测水平是改善模型模拟的有效途径。     

Impact of recycling and lateral sediment input on grain size fining trends—Implications for reconstructing tectonic and climate forcings in ancient sedimentary systems

Grain size trends in basin stratigraphy are thought to preserve a rich record of the climatic and tectonic controls on landscape evolution. Stratigraphic models assume that over geological timescales, the downstream profile of sediment deposition is in dynamic equilibrium with the spatial distribution of tectonic subsidence in the basin, sea level and the flux and calibre of sediment supplied from mountain catchments. Here, we demonstrate that this approach in modelling stratigraphic responses to environmental change is missing a key ingredient: the dynamic geomorphology of the sediment routing system. For three large alluvial fans in the Iglesia basin, Argentine Andes we measured the grain size of modern river sediment from fan apex to toe and characterise the spatial distribution of differential subsidence for each fan by constructing a 3D model of basin stratigraphy from seismic data. We find, using a self‐similar grain size fining model, that the profile of grain size fining on all three fans cannot be reproduced given the subsidence profile measured and for any sediment supply scenario. However, by adapting the self‐similar model, we demonstrate that the grain size trends on each fan can be effectively reproduced when sediment is not only sourced from a single catchment at the apex of the system, but also laterally, from tributary catchments and through fan surface recycling. Without constraint on the dynamic geomorphology of these large alluvial systems, signals of tectonic and climate forcing in grain size data are masked and would be indecipherable in the geological record. This has significant implications for our ability to make sensitive, quantitative reconstructions of external boundary conditions from the sedimentary record.     

Selection of Optimal Thresholds for Estimation and Simulation Based on Indicator Values of Highly Skewed Distributions of Ore Data

This study strives to outline a geostatistics model for estimation and simulation of the Qolqoleh gold ore deposit located in Saqqez, NW of Iran. Considering that this gold deposit contains high-grade values, accurate evaluation of such values is of high importance, and therefore different methods based on indicator values, such as full indicator kriging (FIK) and sequential indicator simulation (SIS), have been employed to improve the accuracy of estimation and simulation of high-grade values. FIK and SIS cover the full range of grades based on several thresholds on the indicator data. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) is typically used for selection of threshold values. Given the highly skewed distribution of gold grade and its intense fluctuations, the number of thresholds is increased using CDF, which in turn results in a whole lot of calculations. To reduce the volume of calculations, the number–size (N–S) fractal model has been used to select thresholds. From such a model, all optimal thresholds are chosen with respect to geology and the unnecessary thresholds are excluded from selection. Thus, a study of the selection of optimal thresholds for estimation and simulation of a gold ore resource by means of FIK and SIS, respectively, based on thresholds selected using the N–S fractal model is presented. Finally, it is proved that results of these geostatistical methods based on thresholds selection from the N–S model appear to be better-positioned to explain ore grade variability compared to thresholds selected from the CDF and threshold selection from the N–S model is more effective for reducing the volume of required calculations.     

毛乌素沙地海流兔河流域水文地质特征

海流兔河流域是毛乌素沙地的代表性流域,开展以流域为单元的研究,将为毛乌素沙地的流域水资源配置提供科学依据.通过系统分析海流兔河流域的含水层展布和地下水分布特征,创新性地将含水层厚度和地下水埋深的分区进行小波图像融合后,得到了新的水文地质参数分区.结果 表明:海流兔河流域的第四系及白垩系为该区域的巨厚含水层系统,其中白垩...     

Geological Modeling of Gold Deposit Based on Grade Domaining Using Plurigaussian Simulation Technique

Mineral resource evaluation requires defining grade domains of an ore deposit. Common practice in mineral resource estimation consists of partitioning the ore body into several grade domains before the geostatistical modeling and estimation at unsampled locations. Many ore deposits are made up of different mineralogical ensembles such as oxide and sulfide zone: being able to model the spatial layout of the different grades is vital to good mine planning and management. This study addresses the application of the plurigaussian simulation to Sivas (Turkey) gold deposits for constructing grade domain models that reproduce the contacts between different grade domains in accordance with geologist’s interpretation. The method is based on the relationship between indicator variables from grade distributions on the Gaussian random functions chosen to represent them. Geological knowledge is incorporated into the model by the definition of the indicator variables, their truncation strategy, and the grade domain proportions. The advantages of the plurigaussian simulation are exhibited through the case study. The results indicated that the processes are seen to respect reproducing complex geometrical grades of an ore deposit by means of simulating several grade domains with different spatial structure and taking into account their global proportions. The proposed proportion model proves as simple to use in resource estimation, to account for spatial variations of the grade characteristics and their distribution across the studied area, and for the uncertainty in the grade domain proportions. The simulated models can also be incorporated into mine planning and scheduling.     

分布式水文模型在黄河流域的应用

流域的水资源规划和管理都离不开水资源的定量化评估。而准确评估流域的水资源量,尤其是在大流域,必须明晰不同气候、地形、土地利用等自然条件下的水文循环过程。同时农业灌溉及水库调节等人工的直接取水和调控使水文过程变得更为复杂。仅依靠气象及水文观测数据,已很难拟合出单一的降雨-径流关系来模拟和预测流域水资源的时空分布。这时就需要一种新型水文模拟手段,它可以利用地理信息来描述流域的空间不均一性,并基于物理控制方程来描述水文过程,这就是分布式水文模型。作者介绍了这种模型及其在黄河流域的应用。     

土壤数据空间分辨率对水文过程模拟的影响

分布式水文模型的应用,其准确性有赖于输入数据对流域特征的描述,尤其在大尺度流域,输入数据分辨率的增加是否必然改善模型的模拟效果是值得深入研究的问题。本文以鄱阳湖信江流域为研究区,运用SWAT模型为模拟工具,分析了土壤数据空间分辨率对径流、蒸发及土壤含水量等水文要素模拟的影响以及高精度土壤数据在大流域尺度的适应性。结果表明：不同分辨率的土壤数据对SWAT模型中水文响应单元的划分结果差异显著,但在径流模拟和蒸发计算结果中并没有表现出显著的差别;模型率定前后,低分辨率土壤数据的径流模拟结果略好于高分辨率土壤数据,但两者之间的差别不明显;模型模拟的土壤含水量差异显著,高分辨率土壤模拟的月平均土壤含水量整体大于低分辨率土壤模拟结果;研究还发现,模型的蒸发计算对土壤分辨率信息不敏感。本文研究意味着,大尺度SWAT模型的应用中,土壤数据分辨率的提高不一定会改善模型的模拟效果。在具体应用中,应考虑流域本身的尺度以及模拟精度的要求,选择合适分辨率的土壤数据,同时应结合模型原理和关键参数的物理含义来解释模拟结果。     

基于数据同化技术的延河流域绿水模拟研究

分别利用分布式时变增益水文模型（DTVGM）和分布式耗水过程模型（DEPM）对延河流域延安水文站以上区域进行水文过程模拟,并应用拓展卡尔曼滤波(EKF)算法对2个模型的绿水(实际蒸散发)模拟结果进行同化处理,从而优化了研究区的绿水量并得出绿水的空间分布规律。结果表明：在整个模拟期,DTVGM的月尺度效率系数（NSCE）达到了0.83,水量平衡相对误差为-1.97%,模型能够较好地模拟研究区的水文过程;DEPM的水量平衡相对误差为-1.81%,能较好地模拟流域的水量平衡;DTVGM和DEPM模拟的流域2010年平均绿水量分别为378.52 mm和375.55 mm,空间分布格局相似。与站点观测值比较,DTVGM和DEPM模拟绿水的NSCE分别是0.76和0.59,DEPM的结果具有更多的空间变化信息。同化结果表明EKF算法能综合优化2个模型的模拟结果,同化后DTVGM模拟研究区的平均绿水量为376.34 mm,NSCE为0.78;同化后研究区绿水标准差为40.37 mm,比同化前增加了7.79 mm,绿水空间分布体现了更多的空间变化信息,同时,空间分布时格局也更加合理。     

近50 a新疆气温精细化时空变化分析

利用新疆93个气象站1961-2010年的逐月平均气温资料,使用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall检测以及基于ArcGIS的混合插值法对春、夏、秋、冬四季和年平均气温的变化趋势、突变特征以及各气温要素多年平均值和突变前后变化量的空间分布进行了分析。结果表明：（1）新疆春、夏、秋、冬四季和年平均气温的空间分布总体呈现“南疆高,北疆低;平原和盆地高,山区低”的格局。（2）在全球变暖背景下,1961-2010年新疆春、夏、秋、冬四季和年平均气温分别以0.24 ℃/10 a、0.21 ℃/10 a、0.39 ℃/10 a、0.49 ℃/10 a和0.33℃/10 a的倾向率呈显著的上升趋势,并分别于2004年、1997年、1995年、1985年和1994年发生了突变性的上升,突变后较突变前,各季和年平均气温分别升高了1.5 ℃、0.8 ℃、1.2 ℃、1.6 ℃和1.0 ℃,但气温上升幅度具有明显的区域性差异,其空间分布总体呈现“北疆大,南疆小”的格局。     

基于GMS的石羊河流域含水层空间结构变化的可视化研究

石羊河流域作为我国西北内陆河流域之一,由于长期过量开采地下水资源,使地下水位大幅度下降,并引发一系列生态环境问题.在现实环境中,地下水含水层系统是由多个子含水层系统叠加得到的多层结构,并且子含水层系统之间有弱含水层系统或不完整隔水层系统的存在,而作为揭示地层信息的钻孔数据,具有一定的有限性,这直接制约着含水层空间可视化...     

基于地块汇流网络的小流域水沙运移模拟方法研究

全流域逐地块水土流失计算,是目前水土保持定量评价的重要手段,其实现过程既需要有考虑地貌因子和上下游关系的土壤侵蚀模型,也需要建立全流域地块汇流网络,并与侵蚀模型有机连接。本文针对黄土高原特殊的地理条件和水土流失规律,对传统的基于栅格的小流域汇流技术进行了改进,考虑地块间上下游汇流关系,建立了基于地块的水沙汇流网络模型,模拟水沙在流域复杂下垫面的汇流过程,提取出流域各地块间的水沙汇流网络,并计算出3个重要参数:流域地块间水沙汇流的顺序、流域地块间水沙汇流数目的空间分配、水沙流经各地块的坡长。将土壤侵蚀模型按地貌部位与特征分为坡面模型、沟坡模型和沟道输移模型,与地块汇流网络有机集成,实现了水沙运移的全流域按地块沿程计算。     

山区流域暴雨洪水的数值模拟

基于中尺度天气研究预报模式WRF和流域水文模型对我国夏季山区的暴雨洪水进行模拟研究。首先,结合新安江水文模型和TOPMODEL自主研发了一个动态结合地面地下产流计算的新水文模型XXT,并选取成熟的天气研究预报模式(WRF)的模拟结果作为XXT的输入进行洪水模拟。其中WRF模拟采取3重区域嵌套模拟再现了2007和2008年夏季山东南部沂沭泗河流域的3次暴雨过程。模拟结果表明,WRF对暴雨的时空分布有较好的模拟与预测能力,模拟结果与观测一致性较好,逐时降水过程较观测更为连续,峰值有一定差异,总量略有偏大。WRF模拟的逐时站点表层土壤湿度与自动站观测的变化趋势一致,峰值偏大,空间分布与降水有着较好的响应关系。总格点径流深的计算结果同样与降水对应得较好,基本能重现出暴雨-径流过程的时空变化特征。其后,利用收集的实测降水资料率定XXT的模型参数,进而将WRF模拟的降水和潜在蒸散发输入到XXT进行流域出口洪水流量的模拟,其中2008年的模拟结果取得了0.91的效率系数,而2007年2次个例由于偏高的降水,使得洪峰流量较观测有偏大,但与观测的时间相关系数高达为0.89和0.91。研究对于山区暴雨洪水的预报预警和防汛决策具有一定的参考价值。     

Contribution of a three-dimensional regional scale basin model to the study of the past fluid flow evolution and the present hydrology of the Paris basin, France

A basin model was built to simulate in three dimensions the 248 Myr geological history of the Paris basin, France, i.e. sedimentation, erosion, compaction heat and fluid flow. This multidisciplinary study was based on a detailed stratigraphic database of more than 1100 well logs together with a hydrodynamic database of 1000 data (heads and permeabilities). The region covers a maximum surface area of 700 000 km². The NEWBAS code of the Ecole des Mines de Paris was used in order to simulate compaction and heat and fluid flow. Three examples of the use of this model are given to illustrate different features of the geological functioning of the basin. (i) By modelling processes such as sedimentation, compaction, fluid and heat flow, the model provides estimates of the hydraulic conductivity fields within one order of magnitude from observations at the regional scale. This permeability field can reproduce the present‐day observed pressures and fluxes in the basin. (ii) Observed excess pressures in the main aquitards are considered as possible consequences of the geological history of the basin. The calculated excess pressures are small and stay within the range of the measured values, between 0 and 2.75 MPa, close to the pressures in the aquifers. However, the weak excess pressures measured in the Callovo–Oxfordian sequence in the eastern part of the basin are not reproduced by the model. Mechanisms other than compaction disequilibrium must be invoked. (iii) This model also calculates regional‐scale palaeofluid flow whose value is currently arbitrarily assumed by geochemists when studying diagenetic processes. Hence, it provides a hydrologic background for diagenetic models. The cementation in the western Keuper reservoirs was investigated. Topographically driven flow during tectonic inversion periods, e.g. the Lower Cretaceous and Early Tertiary, is shown to be a plausible cause of brine migrations. This brine displacement would then explain the high salinities recorded in the fluid inclusions trapped in the Keuper cements. The conditions for the migration would have been most favourable at the time of the maximum burial, i.e. the Early Tertiary and not the Early Cretaceous as previously suggested.     

Data assimilation for a geological process model using the ensemble Kalman filter

We consider the problem of conditioning a geological process‐based computer simulation, which produces basin models by simulating transport and deposition of sediments, to data. Emphasising uncertainty quantification, we frame this as a Bayesian inverse problem, and propose to characterise the posterior probability distribution of the geological quantities of interest by using a variant of the ensemble Kalman filter, an estimation method which linearly and sequentially conditions realisations of the system state to data. A test case involving synthetic data is used to assess the performance of the proposed estimation method, and to compare it with similar approaches. We further apply the method to a more realistic test case, involving real well data from the Colville foreland basin, North Slope, Alaska.     

基于地理大数据和多源信息融合的区域未来人口精细化空间分布模拟研究——以珠江三角洲为例

首先采用队列因素法和CA-Markov模型对区域未来人口规模和土地利用格局进行模拟预测,并结合POI地理大数据,利用多源信息融合法构建区域未来人口精细化空间分布模拟模型,以珠江三角洲城市群2030年各区县精细化的人口空间分布预测进行实证分析。结果表明：① 采用队列因素法进行珠江三角洲各区县人口规模预测的相对误差大部分在5%以下,基于CA-Markov模型土地利用模拟的Kappa系数达到0.97;② 珠江三角洲城市群精细化的人口空间分布模拟数据与实际人口数据的拟合趋势线R²达到了0.90,模拟效果优于Worldpop数据集,体现了POI地理大数据与多源信息融合在精细化人口空间分布模拟上的优势;③ 珠江三角洲未来人口呈现由中心向外围扩散和递减的空间分布格局,空间差异显著且较为稳定,70%的人口集中在广州、深圳、东莞和佛山等核心城市。     

黄河流域有效辐射拟合研究

在深入分析有效辐射理论公式的基础上,利用日射站和常规气象站观测资料,确定有效辐射拟合的经验函数式;利用数据集群技术,建立一系列不同时空尺度的有效辐射估算模式;通过误差分析,最终确定适用于全国范围有效辐射计算的拟合模型;采用确定的有效辐射拟合模型,结合黄河流域及其周边常规气象站观测资料,对黄河流域1960~2000年有效辐射进行计算,利用ArcG IS将站点有效辐射拟合结果进行空间内差,获得黄河流域有效辐射的空间分布。     

汶川地震重灾区泥石流沟内崩滑物空间分布的RS-GIS定量方法

汶川地震在山区引发大量崩塌、滑坡,形成大量的固体松散碎屑物质堆积在沟谷内(CLCAR,崩滑碎屑区),使得地震山区泥石流活动性增强。以岷江上游四川省汶川县银杏乡、映秀镇的15条泥石流沟的SPOT遥感影像为基础,利用GIS技术对CLCAR空间分布进行分析。建立CLCAR与流域高程、主沟侧距和沟口纵距的分布函数T(x)、M(x)和G(x),对CLCAR的空间分布特征进行描述;并计算其积分(DT、DM和DG)作为CLCAR空间分布特征的定量化参数。结果表明,函数T(x)、M(x)和G(x)能够较全面描述CLCAR的空间分布特征,DT、DM和DG能够作为CLCAR空间分布特征的定量化参数。泥石流沟谷内CLCAR的空间分布对泥石流的形成及规模具有一定的影响;在对灾区泥石流研究时有必要考虑泥石流沟内CLCAR空间分布特征。     

The Impact of Spatial Heterogeneity on Ecosystem Service Value in a Case Study in Liuyang River Basin,China

In previous studies the value of ecosystem services was evaluated microscopically by ecological indicators such as soil properties, biomass, carbon storage, oxygen release, water quality, and others. In this paper, the spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem services in Liuyang River basin was studied from the perspective of Geographic Information System (GIS) based spatial relationships by using a combination of geographic data and spatial analysis technologies. The Liuyang River basin was divided into grids with a resolution of 1km×1km. The weights of factors that affect the value of ecosystem services (such as topography, geological disasters, roads, scenic spots, vegetation coverage, and plant net primary productivity) were evaluated using the entropy method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in order to investigate the influence of natural and social factors on the value of ecosystem services in a quantitative manner. The results demonstrate that the value of ecosystem services is mainly affected by vegetation coverage, plant net primary productivity, and road network density. The value of ecosystem services grows with the increase in either vegetation coverage, plant net primary productivity, or road network density. Different types of land play different roles in ecosystem services. Cultivated land, grassland, and water each have significant supply and regulating functions while forest has significant regulating and supporting functions. The value of ecosystem services of cultivated land and water that are closely related to human activity is significantly influenced by spatial heterogeneity. In contrast, the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the value of ecosystem services of forest land and grassland that are located in mountains and hills, far away from the human accumulation zone, is insignificant.     

地形指数的物理意义分析

地形指数模型 ( TOPMODEL)用地形指数在流域中的空间格局来确定流域饱和缺水量的空间分布和产流区的空间位置与范围 ,物理意义明确。本文介绍了地形指数的物理基础及其与土壤水分的关系。分析了地形指数空间变化与汇流面积 a及局地坡度空间变化的关系 ,a范围内有效汇流面积的变化 ,提出了一种确定 a上限值的方法。     

基于径流分类的流域降雨—径流过程动态神经网络建模

利用聚类分析,将径流序列分为不同类型的子径流序列,对这些子序列建立神经网络模型,采用Elman动态神经网络对沂沭河流域上游临沂子流域日径流量进行预测分析,通过与不加分类的总体神经网络的模拟结果进行对比分析。确定性系数、相关系数、平均相对误差和平均相对均方根误差4个统计指数及流域径流过程线和次洪误差分析结果都表明:Elman动态神经网络能够对日径流量进行较好模拟,但基于径流分类的降雨—径流模型表现出更优良性能,能较大程度提高径流模拟精度。