新疆部分地震的余震序列特征及强余震预报

余震序列特征的研究是地震预报探索中的一项重要工作,强余震的预报又是地震预报中不可缺少的组成部分。本文主要对1971年以来20次M_S≥5.5级地震余震序列的空间分布,时间序列及强度特征进行初步分析讨论。结果表明,强余震的活动是有一定规律的。通过余震序列特征的研究,可以对强余震作出相应的预测。     

唐山地震的超晚期强余震估计

根据华北历史地震的重复性和免疫性，认为在唐山周围８５ｋｍ，２００年内，对６级地震具有一定的免疫性；在研究了唐山地震序列自身的衰减规律后，认为在今后几十几强余震的最大活动水平为５级，发生６级以上土地震的可能性很小。     

共和地震余震趋势判断和余震预报

1、前言1990年4月26日在青海省共和县发生了M_s7级地震。甘肃省地震局对这次地震的余震趋势做了正确的估计,并对5月7日和16日两次5.5级地震做了较为准确的预报。在预报过程中,使用的还是一些传统的测震学方法,但在资料选取和如何划分余震活动时间段方面,做了一些技术性改进。本文对预报过程做一简要的回顾和总结。     

地震序列的h值快速震型判别与强余震预测

用数值拟合的方法对１９６６年以来７６个ＭＬ≥５．５地震序列的衰减特性进行了较详细的研究，提出从ｈ值的逐日时间扫描和逐日累积时间扫描两个方面去把握地震序列的衰减过程并将其用于强余震的预测和震型的快速判定。     

地震波形群体特征在强余震预测中的应用

研究了华东地区１５个地震序列的振幅比、初动方向和初动半周期资料。得到：大震（主余型序列中的主震或震群型序列中最大地震）前后的Ｐ波初动方向，除人们熟知的由优势分布转化为紊乱外，还有可能呈优势分布，优势方向改变的特征。余震序列的Ｐ波初动方向和振幅比特征可能有助于预测强余震。初动半周期特征可能用于区别的前震和余震。     

姚安地震余震序列研究

将2000年姚安MS6.5地震的19个3.0≤ML<5.0余震的垂直分量在频率域内进行地震矩张量反演,对反演结果进行了讨论,并用最小二乘法回归了地震矩M0、矩震级MW和地方震震级ML之间的关系;根据对余震序列主压应力轴随时间的变化特点,分析了震区复杂的应力状态。     

一些强余震前余震活动的前兆性平静和恢复

定量地分析了日本若干Ｍ≥７的浅源强震后的余震活动的时间特征。这些强震后都伴有强余震的发生，而且这些强余震又都触发了自身的余震活动。本研究的目的在考察这种强余震发生前的余震活动的任何异常变化，在强余震发生之疹，余震活动明显代于由修订的大森公式所得的期望值。     

模式识别在强余震等早期综合判别中的应用研究

本文利用所收集到的２９个６级以上地震序列，探讨将模式识别ＣＯＲＡ－３算法用于５级以上强余震或震群或再发生更大地震的前震－主震－余震型地震序列早期综合判断的可能性及具体方法。文中参与学习和训练的２５个地震序列中，８个Ｉ类序列全部被正确识别，１７个ＩＩ类序列中有１６个被正确识别，只有１个被误判为Ｉ类，预报评分Ｖ值达０．９２。对于留作外推的４个地震序列中，２个ＩＩ类序列全部被正确识别，２个Ｉ类序列，１个     

地震序列较强余震最小二乘拟合预测的方法研究

本研究给出了针对地震序列较强余震发生时间进行快速预测的一种方法,即最小二乘拟合预测方法.该方法包括:最小二乘拟合预测模型的建立、预测模型的各种可信性检验及模型预测等内容.震例研究表明,该方法在大(强)地震现场震情分析中可望发挥积极作用.     

2009年云南姚安M_S6.0地震余震序列尾波Q_c值研究

利用云南大姚地震台记录到的2009年姚安6.0级地震余震序列的数字化波形观测资料,基于尾波单次散射理论,估算该次地震震源区尾波Qc值。结果表明:中心频率为1.5 Hz时,振幅衰减率β(f)在-0.141 27～-0.043 05之间,平均值为-0.074 60;Qc值在33.3～99.8之间,平均值为65.5。并得出Qc值与频率的关系:尾波波源因子与震级成正比,与频率成反比。主震发生后头几天,尾波Qc值(1.5 Hz)波动较大,之后在±1.5倍方差线内趋于稳定,且没有超过5级的强余震发生。姚安地区尾波Qc值具有构造运动活跃、地震活动频繁地区的低Qc值特征。     

地磁HHT频谱分析在地震预测中的应用

利用希尔伯特-黄变换方法,对成都、重庆、拉萨地磁台记录到的汶川M_S 8.0地震、汶川地震余震地磁数据进行分析处理,发现在4级及以上中强度地震前3个月内地磁相对观测HHT频谱中能观测到一定程度的地震前兆异常,各分量的优势频率大部分在0.01 Hz,但并不是距震中300 km内的每个台站的地磁相对观测分量HHT频谱中都能明显地观测到异常,这可能与台站所处的构造位置有关。     

核电站强震动观测与地震预警述评

简要介绍强震动观测和地震预警技术及其在核电站工程中的应用情况.基于有关导则相关要求的介绍,对核电站强震观测系统的一般要求进行说明,分别以Beznau核电站和我国某核电站为例,介绍了强震仪测点的布置情况.以立陶宛Ignalina核电站为例,对地震预警技术在核电站中的应用情况做了分析和探讨.最后,提出了今后核电站地震观测和地震预警中值得关注的有关问题.     

The strong ground motion observation for the Wenchuan aftershock

In this paper, the mobile strong ground motion observation for the destructive earthquake is introduced.Considering the characteristics and its spatial distributions of aftershock, 59 strong ground motion instruments were installed along the Longmenshan fault area, and more than 2 000 records have been accumulated.It shows that it is necessary to per-form the mobile strong ground motion observation after the destructive earthquake, and the precious collected data could be applied for further research.     

Response spectrum of seismic design code for zones lack of near-fault strong earth- quake records

It was shown from the study on the recently near-fault earthquake ground motions that the near-fault effects were seldom considered in the existing Chinese seismic code. Referring to the UBC97 design concept for near-fault factors, based on the collected world-widely free-site records of near-fault earthquakes ground motions classified by earthquake magnitude and site condition, the attenuation relationship expressions of the acceleration spectrum demand at the key points within the long period and moderate period were established in term of the earthquake magnitude and the site condition. Furthermore, the near-fault factors’ expressions about the earthquake magnitude and the fault distance were deduced for the area lack of near-fault strong earthquake records. Based on the current Chinese Building Seismic Design Code, the near-fault effect factors and the modified design spectral curves, which were valuable for the seismic design, were proposed to analyze the seismic response of structures.     

On the analysis of self-similarity of earthquake sequence and its application in earthquake prediction

This paper has introduced the method of self-similarity analysis of time series into the analysis and study of earthquake sequence, and then researched its application in earthquake prediction. As parameter of earthquake time series, we can take the cumulated sum of the numbers of equivalent earthquakesQ=ΣN*, the numbers of equivalent earthquakeN*, maximum magnitudeM _max, average magnitudeQ=ΣN*, and the difference ΔN* between the numbersN* in two adjacent time intervals. The given method may be applied to analysis of long-period seismic sequences in different regions as well as to anlysis of seismic sequence in the aftershock region of strong earthquake. For making quantitative analysis the coefficient of self-similarity of earthquake sequence in order of timeμs was introduced. The results of self-similarity analysis were obtained for the earthquake sequences in North China, West South China, the Capital region of China, and for the East Yamashi region of Japan. They show that in period or half year to several years beforeM⩾7.0 andM⩾6.0 earthquakes occurred in these regions separately, the self-similarity coefficientμs calculated by using the above-mentioned parameters had remarkably anamalous decrease variations. The duration time ofμs anomaly depends on the earthquake magnitude and may be different from different regions. Therefore, the self-similarity coefficient in order of timeμs can be considered as a long-medium term precursory index. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,15, 455–462, 1993.     

从反应谱求功率谱的精确方法及其应用

本文对由反应谱求功率谱的近似公式的误差进行了讨论,从而说明了精确求解地震动功率谱的必要性,并从构造函数的特征出发,提出了一类符合要求的构造函数族,同时对其参数的取值加以讨论。最后给出了一个算例,展示了从反应谱求功率谱的精确方法与近似方法在数值上的差别,以及对人造地震动的影响。     

Stochastic procedure for the simulation of synthetic main shock‐aftershock ground motion sequences

According to the current seismic codes, structures are designed to resist the first damaging earthquake during their service life. However, after a strong main shock, a structure may still face damaging aftershocks. The main shock‐aftershock sequence may result in major damage and eventually the collapse of a structure. Current studies on seismic hazard mainly focus on the modeling and simulation of main shocks. This paper proposes a 3‐step procedure to generate main shock‐aftershock sequences of pairs of horizontal components of a ground motion at a site of interest. The first step generates ground motions for the main shock using either a source‐based or site‐based model. The second step generates sequences of aftershocks' magnitudes, locations, and times of occurrence using either a fault‐based or seismicity‐based model. The third step simulates pairs of ground motion components using a new empirical model proposed in this paper. We develop prediction equations for the controlling parameters of a ground motion model, where the predictors are the site condition and the aftershock characteristics from the second step. The coefficients in the prediction equations and the correlation between the model parameters (of the 2 horizontal components of 1 record and of several records in 1 sequence) are estimated using a database of aftershock accelerograms. A backward stepwise deletion method is used to simplify the initial candidate prediction equations and avoid overfitting the data. The procedure, based on easily identifiable engineering parameters, is a useful tool to incorporate effects of aftershocks into seismic analysis and design.     

Response spectrum to strong aftershocks of the Lancang-Gengma earthquake

Near-field records of two strong aftershocks with magnitudeM _S=6.7 andM _S=6.3 in the Lancang-Gengma earthquakes sequence, Yunnan Province, November 1988, are used to calculate the response spectrum. The instruments, site conditions and the methods for computing are also illustrated in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 338–343, 1991. This project is supported by The Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation, SSB and the West Yunnan Earthquake Prediction Test Field, Yunnan Seismological Bureau.