Invisible comets on evolutionary track of short-period comets

We systematically surveyed the orbits of short-period (SP) comets that show a large change of perihelion distance (q) between 1–2 AU (visible comets) and 4–5 AU (invisible comets) during 4400 years. The data are taken from Cosmo-DICE (Nakamura and Yoshikawa 1991a), which is a long-term orbital evolution project for SP comets. Recognizing that q is the most critical element for observability of comets, an invisibility factor (f), defined as the ratio of unobservable time span to observable span during 4400 years, is calculated for each of the large-q-change comets. A detection limit for each comet is obtained from the heliocentric distance at discovery and/or the absolute magnitude at recent apparitions. A mean f value for 35 SP comets with 2.9 J (J is the Tisserand's invariant) is found to be 19.8. This implies that for each visible SP comet of this J-range, at every epoch of time, there exist about 20 invisible comets near the capture orbits by Jupiter, under the assumptions of steady-state flux and ergodicity for the SP-comet population.     

New edition of the catalogue of short-period comets

The Institute of Theoretical Astronomy in St. Petersburg and the Astronomical Institute in Bratislava are preparing a new edition of the Catalogue of short-period comets. This edition will be supplemented by short-period comets discovered after the year 1983 and comprises some new features, e. g. the evolution of orbital elements between the years 1750 and 2050, and the perihelion passages of comets within the 1994–2050 years. A new method has been employed for the determination of nongravitational parameters from the osculating elements of a comet based on all its observed returns.The method has been tested on the comets P/Comas Solá and P/Forbes with all returns, except the last one. The results have been compared with the osculating elements of the last return and those used in the old edition of the Catalogue of short-period comets. The new method enables a good prediction of osculating elements for the future, at least for the next return.     

A survey of debris trails from short-period comets

We observed 34 comets using the 24 μm camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. Each image contains the nucleus and covers at least ¹⁰⁶ km of each comet's orbit. Debris trails due to mm-sized or larger particles were found along the orbits of 27 comets; 4 comets had small-particle dust tails and a viewing geometry that made debris trails impossible to distinguish; and only 3 had no debris trail despite favorable observing conditions. There are now 30 Jupiter-family comets with known debris trails, of which 22 are reported in this paper for the first time. The detection rate is >80%, indicating that debris trails are a generic feature of short-period comets. By comparison to orbital calculations for particles of a range of sizes ejected over 2 yr prior to observation, we find that particles comprising 4 debris trails are typically mm-sized while the remainder of the debris trails require particles larger than this. The lower-limit masses of the debris trails are typically ¹⁰¹¹ g, and the median mass loss rate is 2 kg/s. The mass-loss rate in trail particles is comparable to that inferred from OH production rates and larger than that inferred from visible-light scattering in comae.     

From the Oort cloud to observable short-period comets – I. The initial stage of cometary capture

We investigate the first stage of the dynamical evolution of Oort cloud comets entering the planetary region for the first time. To this purpose, we integrate numerically the motions of a large number of fictitious comets pertaining to two samples, both with perihelion distances up to 5.7 au and random inclinations; the first sample is composed of comets whose orbits have at least one node close to 5.2 au, while the second is not subject to this constraint. We examine the orbits when the comets come to aphelion after their first perihelion passage within the planetary region, and find that there is a clear statistical dependence of the energy perturbations on the Tisserand parameter. There appear to be two main processes, of comparable importance, governing the shortening of semimajor axes to values of less than 1000 au, i.e. planetary close encounters, especially with Jupiter, and indirect perturbations due to the shifting of the motion from barycentric to heliocentric and back; the former process mostly affects comets crossing the ecliptic at about 5.2 au, or on low-inclination orbits, while the latter mostly affects comets of small perihelion distance. This last result may help to understand the relative paucity of Halley-type comets with perihelion distances larger than about 1.5 au.     

Long-term evolution of Oort Cloud comets: capture of comets

We test different possibilities for the origin of short-period comets captured from the Oort Cloud. We use an efficient Monte Carlo simulation method that takes into account non-gravitational forces, Galactic perturbations, observational selection effects, physical evolution and tidal splittings of comets. We confirm previous results and conclude that the Jupiter family comets cannot originate in the spherically distributed Oort Cloud, since there is no physically possible model of how these comets can be captured from the Oort Cloud flux and produce the observed inclination and Tisserand constant distributions. The extended model of the Oort Cloud predicted by the planetesimal theory consisting of a non-randomly distributed inner core and a classical Oort Cloud also cannot explain the observed distributions of Jupiter family comets. The number of comets captured from the outer region of the Solar system are too high compared with the observations if the inclination distribution of Jupiter family comets is matched with the observed distribution. It is very likely that the Halley-type comets are captured mainly from the classical Oort Cloud, since the distributions in inclination and Tisserand value can be fitted to the observed distributions with very high confidence. Also the expected number of comets is in agreement with the observations when physical evolution of the comets is included. However, the solution is not unique, and other more complicated models can also explain the observed properties of Halley-type comets. The existence of Jupiter family comets can be explained only if they are captured from the extended disc of comets with semimajor axes of the comets   a <5000 au  . The original flattened distribution of comets is conserved as the cometary orbits evolve from the outer Solar system era to the observed region.     

Dynamical and collisional evolution of Halley-type comets

The number of observed Halley-type comets is hundreds of times less than predicted by models (Levison, H.F., Dones, L., Duncan, M.J. [2001]. Astron. J. 121, 2253–2267). In this paper we investigate the impact of collisions with planetesimals on the evolution of Halley-type comets. First we compute the dynamical evolution of a sub-set of 21 comets using the Mercury integrator package over 100 Myr. The dynamical lifetime is determined to be of the order of 10⁵–10⁶ years in agreement with previous work. The collisional probability of Halley-type comets colliding with known asteroids, a simulated population of Kuiper-belt objects, and planets, is calculated using a modified, Öpik-based collision code. Our results show that the catastrophic disruption of the cometary nucleus has a very low probability of occurring, and disruption through cumulative minor impacts is concluded to be negligible. The dust mantle formed from ejected material falling back to the comet’s surface is calculated to be less than a few centimeters thick, which is insignificant compared to the mantle formed by volatile depletion, while planetary encounters were found to be a negligible disruption mechanism.     

The capture of comets by Jupiter

The capture of comets with parabolic orbits by Jupiter is investigated. The influence of the gravitational force of the Sun on the cometary orbit during the passage of Jupiter's sphere of influence is taken into account. A comparison of the present results with previous calculations demonstrate the importance of the solar perturbations.It is also shown that captures of comets with parabolic orbits and repeated close passages to Jupiter cannot explain all of the observed cometary orbits found in the family of Jupiter.     

On the population, physical decay and orbital distribution of Jupiter family comets: Numerical simulations

We study the Jupiter family comet (JFC) population assumed to come from the Scattered Disk and transferred to the Jupiter’s zone through gravitational interactions with the Jovian planets. We shall define as JFCs those with orbital periods and Tisserand parameters in the range 2<T?3.1, while those comets coming from the same source, but that do not fulfill the previous criteria (mainly because they have periods ) will be called ‘non-JFCs’. We performed a series of numerical simulations of fictitious comets with a purely dynamical model and also with a more complete dynamical-physical model that includes besides nongravitational forces, sublimation and splitting mechanisms. With the dynamical model, we obtain a poor match between the computed distributions of orbital elements and the observed ones. However with the inclusion of physical effects in the complete model we are able to obtain good fits to observations. The best fits are attained with four splitting models with a relative weak dependence on q, and a mass loss in every splitting event that is less when the frequency is high and vice versa. The mean lifetime of JFCs with radii and is found to be of about 150-200 revolutions (∼. The total population of JFCs with radii within Jupiter’s zone is found to be of 450±50. Yet, the population of non-JFCs with radii in Jupiter-crossing orbits may be ∼4 times greater, thus leading to a whole population of JFCs + non-JFCs of ∼2250±250. Most of these comets have perihelia close to Jupiter’s orbit. On the other hand, very few non-JFCs reach the Earth’s vicinity (perihelion distances ) which gives additional support to the idea that JFCs and Halley-type comets have different dynamical origins. Our model allows us to define the zones of the orbital element space in which we would expect to find a large number of JFCs. This is the first time, to our knowledge, that a physico-dynamical model is presented that includes sublimation and different splitting laws. Our work helps to understand the role played by these erosion effects in the distribution of the orbital elements and lifetimes of JFCs.     

Temporary satellite capture of comets by Jupiter

This paper studies the dynamical evolution of 97 Jupiter-family comets over an 800-year time period. More than two hundred encounters with Jupiter are investigated, with the observed comets moving during a certain period of time in an elliptic jovicentric orbit. In most cases this is an ordinary temporary satellite capture of a comet in Everhart??s sense, not associated with a transition of the small body into Jupiter??s family of satellites. The phenomenon occurs outside the Hill sphere with comets with a high Tisserand constant relative to Jupiter; the comets?? orbits have a small inclination to the ecliptic plane. An analysis of 236 encounters has allowed the determination within the planar pair two-body problem of a region of orbits in the plane (a, e) whose semimajor axes and eccentricities contribute to the phenomenon under study. Comets with orbits belonging to this region experience a temporary satellite capture during some of their encounters; the jovicentric distance function has several minima; and the encounters are characterized by reversions of the line of apsides and some others features of their combination that are intrinsic to comets in this region. Therefore, this region is called a region of comets with specific features in their encounters with Jupiter. Twenty encounters (out of 236), whereby the comet enters an elliptic jovicentric orbit in the Hill sphere, are identified and investigated. The size and shape of the elliptic heliocentric orbits enabling this transition are determined. It is found that in 11 encounters the motion of small bodies in the Hill sphere has features the most important of which is multiple minima of the jovicentric distance function. The study of these 20 encounters has allowed the introduction of the concept of temporary gravitational capture of a small body into the Hill sphere. An analysis of variations in the Tisserand constant in these (20) encounters of the observable comets shows that their motion is unstable in Hill??s sense.     

The effect of non-gravitational forces on the median inclination of short-period comets

The numbered Jupiter family comets (orbital periods   P < 20 yr  ) have a median orbital inclination of about     . In this paper, we integrate the orbits of these comets into the future, under the influence of both typical non-gravitational forces and planetary perturbation, using a Bulirsch–Stoer integrator. In the case where non-gravitational forces were not acting, the median inclination of those comets that remained on   P < 20 yr  orbits increased at the rate of  (1.92 ± 0.12) × 10⁻³ deg yr⁻¹  for the first 3600 yr of the integration. During this time the population of the original family decreases, such that the half-life is about 13 200 ± 800 yr. The introduction of non-gravitational forces slows down the rate of increase in inclination to a value of around  (1.23 ± 0.16) × 10⁻³ deg yr⁻¹  . This rate of increase in inclination was found to be only weakly dependent on the non-gravitational parameters used during the integration. After a few thousand years, the rate of change in inclination decreases, and after 20 000 yr the inclinations of those initial Jupiter family members that still have orbits with   P < 20 yr  become constant at about     , independent of whether non-gravitational forces are acting or not. The presently known Jupiter family of comets is losing members at the rate of one in every 67 yr. To maintain the family in equilibrium, Jupiter has to capture comets at a similar rate, and these captured comets have to be of low inclination to compensate for the pumping up of inclinations by gravitational perturbation.     

End-states of short-period comets and their role in maintaining the zodiacal dust cloud

Physical lifetimes and end-states of short-period comets are analysed in connection with the problem of the maintainance of the zodiacal dust cloud. In particular, the problem of the comet-asteroid relationship is addressed. Recent studies of the physical properties of Apollo-Amor asteroids and short-period comets (e.g., Hartmann et al., 1987) show significant differences between them, suggesting that they are distinct classes of objects. A few percent of the active SP comets might become asteroidal-like bodies in comet-type orbits due to the buildup of dust mantles. The remainder probably disintegrate as they consume their volatile content so their debris can only be observed as fireballs when they meet the Earth. Unobservable faint SP comets — i.e., comets so small (m 10¹⁴ g) that quickly disintegrate before being detected, might be a complementary source of dust material. They might be completely sublimated even at rather large heliocentric distances (r - 3 AU). Yet the released dust grains can reach the vicinity of the Sun by Poynting-Robertson drag. The mass associated with unobservable SP comets with perihelion distances q 3 AU might be comparable to that computed for the sample of observed SP co-mets with q 1.5 AU. It is concluded that SP comets (from the large to the unobservable small ones) may supply an average of several tons/sec of meteoric matter to the zodiacal dust cloud.     

Dynamical evolution of comets and the problem of cometary fading

Possibilities to explain the observed 1/a-distribution are discussed in the light of improved understanding of the dynamical evolution of long-period comets. It appears that the fading problem applies both to single-injection and continuous-injection models. Although uncertainties due to nongravitational effects do not allow detailed results to be drawn from the observed 1/a-distribution at small perihelion distance q, that for q 1.5 AU shows that a constant fading probability cannot explain all the features of the observed distribution. Assuming that comets can reappear following a period of fading, values for the assumed constant fading and renewal probabilities, and the total cometary flux have been estimated for q > 1.5 AU.     

Dynamical evolution of comets and the problem of cometary fading

Possibilities to explain the observed 1/a-distribution are discussed in the light of improved understanding of the dynamical evolution of long-period comets. It appears that the ‘fading problem’ applies both to single-injection and continuous-injection models. Although uncertainties due to nongravitational effects do not allow detailed results to be drawn from the observed 1/a-distribution at small perihelion distance q, that for q ? 1.5 AU shows that a constant fading probability cannot explain all the features of the observed distribution. Assuming that comets can reappear following a period of fading, values for the assumed constant fading and renewal probabilities, and the total cometary flux have been estimated for q > 1.5 AU.     

Tidal decay and stable Roche-lobe overflow of short-period gaseous exoplanets

Many gaseous exoplanets in short-period orbits are on the verge or are in the process of Roche-lobe overflow (RLO). Moreover, orbital stability analysis shows tides can drive many hot Jupiters to spiral inevitably toward their host stars. Thus, the coupled processes of orbital evolution and RLO likely shape the observed distribution of close-in exoplanets and may even be responsible for producing some of the short-period rocky planets. However, the exact outcome for an overflowing planet depends on its internal response to mass loss, and the accompanying orbital evolution can act to enhance or inhibit RLO. In this study, we apply the fully-featured and robust Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics suite to model RLO of short-period gaseous planets. We show that, although the detailed evolution may depend on several properties of the planetary system, it is largely determined by the core mass of the overflowing gas giant. In particular, we find that the orbital expansion that accompanies RLO often stops and reverses at a specific maximum period that depends on the core mass. We suggest that RLO may often strand the remnant of a gas giant near this orbital period, which provides an observational prediction that can corroborate the hypothesis that short-period gas giants undergo RLO. We conduct a preliminary comparison of this prediction to the observed population of small, short-period planets and find some planets in orbits that may be consistent with this picture. To the extent that we can establish some short-period planets are indeed the remnants of gas giants, that population can elucidate the properties of gas giant cores, the properties of which remain largely unconstrained.     

Planet X and the origins of the shower and steady state flux of short-period comets

In the planet X model periodic comet showers are associated with passages of the planet's perihelion and aphelion points through a primordial disk of comets believed to lie beyond the orbit of Neptune. A strong feature of this model is that the required orbital elements and mass of planet X are consistent with independently predicted values based on the residuals in the motions of Uranus and Neptune. Here we present a more extensive analysis of the model taking into account the fact that only those comets scattered directly into the zones of influence of Saturn and Jupiter can contribute to a shower whose duration is consistent with observation (≲ 15 myr). These requirements impose a minimum planetary inclination of ≈25°, which in turn restricts the semimajor axis to be ≲100 AU. A fraction of the comets scattered directly into the zones of influence of Uranus and Neptune will evolve on time scales of ∼10⁸ years into the steady state flux of short-period comets. We find that the absolute numbers of shower and steady state are comparable and compatible with the known terrestrial cratering rate, assuming the existence of long-lived extinct comet cores. Canonical planet X model parameters, deduced in part from the scattering dynamics analysis, are: semimajor axis ≈80 AU, eccentricity ≈0.3, inclination ≈45°, and mass ≈5m_⊕. An analysis is given which suggests that planet X, in its present orbit, can create the requisite density gradient of comets near perihelion and aphelion during the lifetime of the Solar System. The required inclination of planet X's orbit (≳25°) may explain the failure of previous surveys to discover the planet as its present latitude is not likely to be near the ecliptic. It it exists, the best immediate hope of finding planet X is the ongoing IRAS search in the 100-μm band and the full sky optical survey by Shoemaker and Shoemaker. Independent of the question of periodic comet showers, the existence of planet X and the comet disk can readily explain the origin of the steady state flux of short-period comets over a wide range of parameters.     

Dynamical constraints on the origin of Main Belt comets

Abstract— In an effort to understand the origin of Main Belt comets (MBCs) 7968 Elst‐Pizzaro, 118401, and P/2005 U1, the dynamics of these three icy asteroids and a large number of hypothetical MBCs were studied. Results of extensive numerical integrations of these objects suggest that they were formed in place through the collisional breakup of a larger precursor body. Simulations point specifically to the Themis family of asteroids as the origin of these objects and rule out the possibility of a cometary origin (i.e., inward scattering of comets from outer solar system and their primordial capture in the asteroid belt). Results also indicate that while 7968 Elst‐Pizzaro and 118401 maintain their orbits for 1 Gyr, P/2005 U1 diffuses chaotically in eccentricity and becomes unstable in ?20 Myr. The latter suggest that this MBC used to be a member of the Themis family and is now escaping away. Numerical integrations of the orbits of hypothetical MBCs in the vicinity of the Themis family show a clustering of stable orbits (with eccentricities smaller than 0.2 and inclinations less than 25°) suggesting that many more MBCs may exist in the vicinity of this family (although they might have not been activated yet). The details of the results of simulations and the constraints on the models of the formation and origins of MBCs are presented and their implications for the detection of more of these objects are discussed.     

Contribution of the Earth's gravitational potential to variations in orbital motion of short-period comets

We present simulation results on evolution development of orbital motion of short-period comets with the revolution period not exceeding 6–7 years, namely comets 21P/Giacobini–Zinner, 26P/Grigg–Skjellerup and 7P/Pons–Winnecke. The calculations cover the range from the date of the object's discovery to 2100. Variations in the objects' orbital elements under the action of gravity disturbances, taking Earth's gravitational potential into account when the small body approaches, are analyzed. Corrected dates of perihelion passages can be used for scheduling observations.     

The variation of short-period comet size and decay rate with perihelion distance

Out of over 200 known short-period comets, we analyse a self-consistent list of 105 comets which have accurately estimated nuclei radii. It is found that both the median size and the size distribution index of these comets vary as a function of the perihelion distance, q , of the cometary orbit. A value of   q ≈ 2.7 au  divides the comets into an outer solar system group which are hardly affected by decay, and an inner solar system group which are decaying quickly. It is estimated that 10, 20 and 30 per cent of the 105 comets will have decayed away after 1000, 2000 and 3000 yr, respectively.