中国中东部植被景观观赏季划分的物候学基础

利用中国物候观测网12个站点多种木本植物的展叶始期、开花盛期和叶全变色期观测数据,通过统计物候期的频率分布划分了上述3种物候期的观赏季节,分析了过去50年最佳观赏日的变化趋势,为旅游管理部门及游客的游憩活动安排提供理论依据。研究得出以下主要结论：① 最佳观赏日在不同站点间存在较大差异。展叶最佳观赏日范围为3月16日（桂林）到5月5日（哈尔滨）;开花最佳观赏日从4月3日（昆明）到5月24日（牡丹江）;叶变色最佳观赏日从10月1日（牡丹江）到11月30日（上海）。展叶、开花最佳观赏日和纬度显著正相关,叶变色最佳观赏日和纬度显著负相关;② 部分站点过去50年最佳观赏日发生了明显变化。尤其是北京和西安,展叶和开花最佳观赏日都以超过1.6天/10年的趋势显著提前,而叶变色最佳观赏日显著推迟（北京：1.6天/10年;西安：2.1天/10年）。③ 观赏季起止时间和最佳日期受站点气温控制。展叶、开花最佳观赏日与站点春季（3-5月）气温显著负相关。站点春季气温每升高1 °C,展叶和开花最佳观赏日分别提前4.02和4.04天。叶变色最佳观赏日与站点秋季（9-11月）气温显著正相关,在空间上对气温响应的敏感性为2.98天/°C。     

A modified first-motion approximation for the synthesis of body-wave seismograms

Summary. Modified first-motion approximations have been developed for the generation of synthetic body-wave seismograms using the Cagniard-de Hoop method. Comparisons are presented between classical first motion, modified first motion and full Cagniard treatments for problems involving a homogeneous sphere and a triplication in a realistic earth model. Results of these comparisons show that the modified first-motion approximations may be used for a wide variety of geophysically interesting problems with little loss of accuracy compared to the full Cagniard method.     

光周期对沙枣尺蠖病菌（Dh菌株）离体培养的影响

研究了光周期对沙枣尺蠖病菌（Emericella quadriclineata）Dh菌株菌丝生长及产孢量的影响。结果表明,光照对液培菌丝生物量和平板培养产孢有明显的影响,长光照有利于菌丝生长,菌丝生物量明显高于短光照和全黑暗;培养4 d菌丝生物量最大,其中以18 h光照与6 h黑暗交替菌丝生物量最大。光照对Dh菌株平板产孢具有一定的促进作用,连续光照与各温度组合的累积产孢量显著高于连续黑暗下各温度组合,以全光照25℃培养7 d产孢量最高,第3天至第5天时增长率达到顶点;30℃和35℃下无论是光照还是黑暗条件均不适合产孢,其产孢速率呈持续下降状态。紫外光对Dh菌株生长的影响程度与照射时间有关,在供试范围内,照射时间越长菌落生长越慢。     

气候变化对成都桃花观赏旅游的影响与人类适应行为

基于中国物候观测网14年桃花盛花期数据,1987-2014年四川历年报纸100余条桃花节日期记录,以及1987-2013年研究区月均温数据,采用小波分析,相关分析等方法评估了气候变化对桃花观赏旅游的影响.结果表明:研究区气候变化显著,物候期对气候变化高度敏感,桃花盛花期前三个月和前一个月温度升高1℃,盛花期分别提前6.47天和4.16天.桃花节开幕日期与温度变化趋势及周期对比,两者相关分析发现,过去近30年,成都桃花节组织者通常会根据温度变化调节赏花节开幕日期,但2000-2008年更多的是将节日安排在周末.研究证明气候变化已通过改变植物花期,对赏花旅游产生了影响.管理部门调节节庆日期的方式是赏花旅游适应气候变化影响的有效策略.研究可为评估气候变化对其他时令旅游活动的影响提供新的视角和方法,也可为中国赏花旅游提出适应气候变化的有效策略提供科学依据.     

生命周期视角下建成环境对居民休闲体力活动的影响

近年来,建成环境对居民休闲体力活动的影响受到广泛的关注,但这种影响对于生命周期不同阶段居民来说是否存在差异需深入研究。因此,本文基于生命周期理论,将广州市居民划分为无子阶段、满巢阶段Ⅰ、满巢阶段Ⅱ、空巢期四个阶段,利用多元线性回归方程,研究建成环境对生命周期不同阶段居民休闲体力活动影响的差异。研究发现：（1）各阶段居民散步、中等强度、高强度休闲体力活动的频率和时间差异显著,但休闲体力活动水平无明显差异。（2）由于各阶段居民生活方式和休闲行为不同,建成环境对其休闲体力活动水平的影响存在差异。各阶段居民都受到康体设施密度的正向影响。此外,无子阶段居民偏好多样化且中高强度休闲体力活动,因此受POI密度和交叉口密度正向影响较大。满巢阶段Ⅰ与满巢阶段Ⅱ的居民受到家庭束缚较大,受建成环境影响较小。空巢期居民偏好于散步,受土地利用多样性的正向影响较大,土地利用多样性高的地区,空巢期居民出门活动的几率更高。考虑到各阶段人群特征及需求差异,应采取差异化的建成环境改善措施,提供个性化的服务供给。     

The selection of internal migration models for European regions

"A full multiregional projection model requires migration data that are simultaneously classified by age and gender and region of origin and region of destination. Except for a very small number of regions, these data requirements are so high that aggregation of the data (which is equivalent to simplification of the model) is called for. This paper investigates the extent to which the full internal migration matrix can be simplified without seriously affecting the performance of the resulting multiregional model. Using IPF (iterative proportional fitting) methods, a log-linear analysis of alternative model specifications is made, using data for Italy, the Netherlands and the UK....A reasonable balance between goodness-of-fit and parsimony is found for the model in which time interacts with the main effects only (i.e. with age/sex, with origin and with destination)."     

应用层次贝斯模型研究气候变化对威塔流域流量的影响(英文)

我们应用层次贝叶斯模型模拟大气二氧化碳浓度加倍可能对美国北卡罗来纳州西部威塔(Coweeta)流域水文的影响。这个模型整合了多重数据来源并且同时考虑了数据,参数和模型结构的不确定性。贝叶斯分析的预测分布显示流量和土壤含水量在秋季和夏季将明显下降,这将造成这两个季节更严重的干旱。同时我们用通用极值分布(Generalized Extreme Value distribution)和通用普拉托分布(Generalized Pareto distribution)分析预测流量,结果显示洪水频率也会增减。层次贝叶斯模型,和许多只能得到最佳参数估计的水文模型相比,能提供更丰富的信息,包括预测的不确定性。这将有助于可持续水资源管理的大前提下发展应对气候变化的措施。     

新疆农业上市公司经营策略与合理缴税的对策分析

充分利用税法现行的税收优惠政策进行税收筹划,是一种很重要的税收筹划方法,而现行税法对农业的优惠政策颇多,因此,农业企业应根据自身情况,结合行业特点,在充分了解和掌握优惠政策的基础上确定自身的经营策略,这样才能达到合理缴税的目的。首先介绍了农业企业的经营方式和税收的关系,然后分析了新疆农业上市公司税收现状和存在的税收问题,最后按税种从降低纳税风险、降低税负、递延纳税的时间等几个方面对新疆农业上市公司提出了合理缴税的对策。     

A reconstruction of the North Atlantic since the earliest Jurassic

The stretched continental margins of the North Atlantic region record a plate kinematic history dominated by major episodes of extension since the Late Palaeozoic. Accounting for the restoration of this stretched continental crust across the region, and the subsequent derivation of plausible full‐fit configurations between these continents, prior to extension, still remains unresolved. Previous plate reconstructions have highlighted difficulties such as determining the amount of extension to be distributed across the multiple episodes of rifting, or defining the distribution of extension across intraplate deformation occurring adjacent to the rifting of two major continents. Here, we implement a new approach to derive a set of total reconstruction poles based on a full‐fit, palinspastic restoration of the conjugate margins that considers the rifting evolution of the North Atlantic in a regional plate kinematic context since the Earliest Jurassic. Gravity inversion forms the basis of our regional crustal thickness estimates, and aids in the identification of thinned continental crust. Our crustal restoration estimates are computed in multiple phases along margin segments in accordance with the timing of their major rifting episodes. Our model predicts a full‐fit, prerift, palaeogeographic position of all the major continents across the North Atlantic; and predicts a time‐dependent evolution of multiple phases of extension including regional divergence directions, consistent with previous observations. Our plate model represents a new approach to plate kinematic reconstructions incorporating the application of a multiphase restoration methodology applied in a major regional context, constrained by the synthesis of several different geological and geophysical data sets.     

Biogenic silica from the BDP93 drill site and adjacent areas of the Selenga Delta, Lake Baikal, Siberia

Biogenic silica contents of sediments on the lower Selenga Delta and Buguldeika saddle in Lake Baikal show distinct fluctuations that reflect changes in diatom productivity, and ultimately, climate. The pattern of the upper 50 m of the section, dating from about 334 ka, is similar to that of the marine oxygen-isotope record, increasingly so as the younger sediments become progressively finer grained and less locally derived with time. The last two interglaciations are marked by biogenic silica abundances similar to those of the Holocene. The equivalent of marine oxygen-isotope stage 3 is distinctly intermediate in character between full glacial and full interglacial biogenic silica values. Following near-zero values during the last glacial maximum, biogenic silica began to increase at about 13 ka. The rise in biogenic silica to Holocene values was interrupted by an abrupt decrease during Younger Dryas time, about 11 to 10 14C ka.     

简评五年来地理学学位论文

自从1984年《地理研究》开辟地理学学位论文摘要这个栏目到现在已经有五年历史了,尽管这个栏目很小,仅占学术刊物的一角之地;所刊登的学位论文,据不完全统计,也只占全部地理学学位论文的三分之一左右,但它已经起到了它所应起的作用,扩大了地理科学这一部分宝贵财富的社会效益,为地理界提供了一个“相互了解和学位的园地”¹⁾,作为文献,它也是青年地理学家的第一个记录,并且使我们从中看出,新一代的地理学家正在继往开来,茁壮成长,予示着未来地理学的光辉前程,这是值得我们广大地理工作者高兴的。     

Development of a Journal: Some brief comments relating to the Part Index for the Australian Geographer, 1928-98

This commentary concentrates on the physical production of the Australian Geographer and developments of a related nature. As I cannot pretend to have read every paper published over the last 71 years, comment on content is very limited. I also wish to avoid overlap with already published retrospectives included in Volume 19, Number 1, and Volume 27, Number 1, of this journal. A full issue-by-issue index is included in Volume 30, Number 1, of the Australian Geographer (pp. 103-26): all major papers, but not some minor pieces, are listed. Some of the latter, when part of a series, are listed in Tables 1 to 4 in this commentary. A full alphabetical author index for the 71 years of the journal will be included in the next issue (July 1999) as Appendix B.     

Factors affecting the distribution, abundance and seedling survival of Mammillaria gaumeri , an endemic cactus of coastal Yucatán, México

The population status of an endemic cactus (Mammillaria gaumeri) was assessed in coastal Yucatán, México. Similar numbers of mature plants were found in open and full sun microhabitats. Plants in full sun had more ramets and were of larger diameter. There was a correlation between M. gaumeri abundance and the biomass of a disturbance indicator, Myrmecophila tibicinis (Orchidacea). Higher seedling survival in shade microhabitats and aggregated distribution of adults suggests that shrubs serve as nurse plants. Initial mortality rates of seedlings were many times higher in full sun microhabitats than in shade conditions. Herbivory had no effect on seedling survival.     

风沙现象的相似问题

风沙现象室内模型实验要做到与自然界的风沙现象完全相似是很难实现。第一,要做到模型与实物几何相似很困难,如气流中沙粒按模型缩尺缩小,其在与流中物理本质将完全改变;第二,满足相似的判据太复杂,技术上难以实现。如要同时满足两个最重要的判据雷诺数(Re)和福洛德数(Fr),就需要改变运动介质或改变地球的重大加速度,这在技术上实现很困难,故只能采用近似相似的方法,只考虑一个较重要的相似判据。风沙问题可以分为无沙与有沙气流两大类。无沙气流研究沙粒或其他物质在风力作用下的稳定性问题时(如沙粒起动,大风吹翻火车货车等).应主要考虑Fr数相同。而在研究固定的物体在风力作用下的绕流问题时(如防护林防风效益).应主要考虑Re数相同。研究风沙流的问题就较为复杂,在可能情况下加以简化,如只测流场,由流场中的风速大小、分布推测沙的蚀积情况;或采用不同比尺的模型实验,用系列模型法外推原型的情况。     

海南岛逐日太阳总辐射长期演变特征与关联因子

为了解海南岛太阳辐射资源的时空变化规律及变化原因,以海口（1961―2013 年）和三亚（1993―2013年）2 个气象站点长时间序列逐日太阳总辐射、日照时数、气温等观测资料为基础,利用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验方法分析了全年、雨季、旱季日均太阳总辐射的长期演变特征,利用多重线性回归分析了辐射变化的主要关联气象因素。结果表明：1961―2013 年期间海口全年、雨季、旱季日均太阳总辐射气候倾向率分别为0.021、0.004、0.038 MJ/m²,1993―2013 年三亚全年、雨季、旱季日均太阳总辐射气候倾向率分别为-0.68、-0.658、-0.714MJ/m²。海口日均太阳总辐射变化呈波动趋势,全年、雨季日均太阳总辐射显著的“变暗期”分别出现在1975―1992、1975―1990 年;海口旱季日均太阳总辐射呈先降后升的趋势,1967―2003 年为下降期,2003 年之后呈现上升趋势,显著的“变暗期”为1995、1988―1989 年。1993 年以来,三亚全年、雨季、旱季日均太阳总辐射变化都呈下降趋势,显著的“变暗期”分别出现在1999―2013（全年）、2000―2003 和2009―2011 年（雨季）、1996―2001 和2004―2013 年（旱季）,突变年份分别为1997、1995、1995 年。三亚站点太阳辐射资源较海口站点丰富;日照时数与海口全年、雨季、旱季和三亚全年、雨季日均太阳总辐射变化关联度最强,而日平均气温则与三亚旱季日均总辐射变化关联度最强。     

全球多尺度海岸线数据在珠江口岸线的精度评价及适用性分析

以珠江口为研究区,对全球自洽分层高分辨率地理数据库(GSHHG)中的全分辨率、高分辨率、中分辨率、低分辨率和粗分辨率等5种海岸线数据开展评价与适用性分析,评估5个尺度海岸线数据的长度及其分形维数差异,并选择珠江口两岸部分区域为例,以不同时期陆地资源卫星Landsat影像为基础,对比不同尺度GSHHG海岸线数据与实际数据...     

A TEST OF THREE FITTING CRITERIA FOR MULTIRESPONSE NON-LINEAR MODELING

This work evaluates objective functions for multiresponse non-linear modeling using computersimulations.Tests are performed under a variety of signal-to-noise ratios and noise variance-covariancestructures.The standard error of prediction for the model parameters,computed from 50 trials,is usedfor performance comparisons.The full rank and rank-deficient problems are considered.For the fullrank problem one model was investigated,a first-order two-step consecutive reaction model,and twoobjective functions were considered,the total sum of squares and the determinant criterion.Nodistinction could be made between the two objective functions for this model.For the rank-deficient case two models were investigated,a first-order two-step consecutive reactionas in the full rank case,and a pH titration model described by the Henderson-Hasselbalch equation.Three objective functions were investigated for the rank-deficient case,the total sum of squares,aweighted total sum of squares and the determinant criterion.The total sum of squares was found toperform poorly under all conditions tested compared to the weighted total sum of squares and thedeterminant criterion.The determinant criterion was found to perform much better than the other twocriteria when the data have a combination of a low signal-to-noise ratio and high variance-covariancenoise structure.     

在西部大开发中广西自然资源的可持续利用

在分析广西自然资源特点的基础上 ,探讨了广西自然资源可持续利用中存在的问题 ,并针对问题提出了 1以西部大开发为契机 ,充分发挥广西自然资源优势 ;2加强对海洋资源的综合开发 ;3对农业自然资源进行集约化开发 ,大力发展生态农业 ;4充分开发旅游资源 ,创建旅游大省 ;5积极培养和引进人才 ,为广西自然资源的开发提供技术和智力支撑 ;6改善生态环境 ,实现自然资源的可持续利用等对策。     

Basin analysis palaeo-landscape modelling: Testing the critical controls using experimental design constrained by a real 3D geological model,Gippsland Basin,Australia

The main controlling variables for palaeo-landscape evolution are investigated to assess their relative importance using the Gippsland Basin geological history. Palaeo-landscape reconstruction is a complicated process controlled and affected by multiple variables, including tectonic, palaeo-environment, sea-level change, rainfall, sediment erosion, transportation, deposition, etc. The Basin and Landscape Dynamics software (Badlands) software was used with an efficient experimental design (ED) to guide the selected scenarios, process the results, and generate the multi-variate equations that define and identify the important controlling variables. The ED was used to test and identify the main uncertainties and their possible ranges, based on actual field data, while at the same time ensuring that the full multi-dimensional space for those variables was covered to enable the computation of multivariate equations from the minimum number of scenario runs. A full suite of 3D forward palaeo-landscape models of the Gippsland Basin was built to reconstruct the basin history from its formation to the present (Early Cretaceous to Holocene, 137-0 Ma). The models are compared to the corresponding full 3D realistic structural and stratigraphic model of the basin that has been built in Petrel (Schlumberger software). This constrains the sedimentary, stratigraphic, burial and thermal histories to the relative subsidence rates and basin-fill for each geological sequence by using the model isopachs input to the Badlands modelling. The ED required only 22 scenarios to fit 12 identified variables and test for possible interactions with each other. The most significant variables are those that control sediment supply including non-marine erodibility, rainfall, (Rainfall × Area) exponent m, Slope and critical slope while maximum % Marine Deposition and marine dispersal are also required to fill the marine accommodation space. Sea Level and subsidence only become significant when rapid enough to outpace sediment supply. The controlling factors change over time with basin development from rift to post-rift phases and interactions are highly significant.     

地貌发育演化研究的空代时理论与方法

地貌的发育在特定的条件下往往呈现空间分布上由“新”至“老”的过渡,据此,对地貌类型与特征在空间上的序列采样,即可为研究某种地貌的个体发育提供基本依据。该方法即为地貌学研究中的空代时。本文首先介绍了空代时方法产生的背景与基本概念。分析了近年来空代时方法应用于河流地貌、构造地貌、河口海岸地貌等不同地貌类型演化过程的研究进展。在此基础上,明确了空代时方法在地貌学研究中的适用条件、影响因素及分类体系,并提出了地貌学空代时的研究范式。本文认为今后的研究工作一方面应充分利用海量的地理空间数据,运用空代时方法研究多种空间尺度下的地貌演化的问题;另一方面,应结合现有的物理机制和统计规律,构建集形、数、理一体化的地貌演化模型。