Assessment of <Emphasis Type="Italic">pre-crisis</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">syn-crisis</Emphasis> seismic hazard at Campi Flegrei and Mt. Vesuvius volcanoes,Campania, southern Italy

In this study, we address the issue of short-term to medium-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for two volcanic areas, Campi Flegrei caldera and Mt. Vesuvius in the Campania region of southern Italy. Two different phases of the volcanic activity are considered. The first, which we term the pre-crisis phase, concerns the present quiescent state of the volcanoes that is characterized by low-to-moderate seismicity. The second phase, syn-crisis, concerns the unrest phase that can potentially lead to eruption. For the Campi Flegrei case study, we analyzed the pattern of seismicity during the 1982–1984 ground uplift episode (bradyseism). For Mt. Vesuvius, two different time-evolutionary models for seismicity were adopted, corresponding to different ways in which the volcano might erupt. We performed a site-specific analysis, linked with the hazard map, to investigate the effects of input parameters, in terms of source geometry, mean activity rate, periods of data collection, and return periods, for the syn-crisis phase. The analysis in the present study of the pre-crisis phase allowed a comparison of the results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for the two study areas with those provided in the Italian national hazard map. For the Mt. Vesuvius area in particular, the results show that the hazard can be greater than that reported in the national hazard map when information at a local scale is used. For the syn-crisis phase, the main result is that the data recorded during the early months of the unrest phase are substantially representative of the seismic hazard during the whole duration of the crisis.     

Studying the spread <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis> effect before earthquakes

The observations of spread F during the nighttime hours (0000–0500 LT) have been statistically analyzed based on data of Tokyo, Akita, Wakkanai, and Yamagawa Japan vertical ionospheric sounding stations for the time intervals a month before and a month after an earthquake. The disturbances in the probability of spread F appearance before an earthquake are revealed against a background of the variations depending on season, solar activity cycle, geomagnetic and solar disturbances. The days with increased solar (Wolf number W > 100) and geomagnetic (ΣK > 30) activity are excluded from the analysis. The spread F effects are considered for more than a hundred earthquakes with magnitude M > 5 and epicenter depth h < 80 km at distances of R < 1000 km from epicenters to the vertical sounding station. An average decrease in the spread F occurrence probability one-two weeks before an earthquake has been revealed using the superposed epoch method (the probability was minimal approximately ten days before the event and then increased until the earthquake onset). Similar results are obtained for all four stations. The reliability of the effect has been estimated. The dependence of the detected effect on the magnitude and distance has been studied.     

Dispersion Measurements of <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis> Waves and their Implications for Mantle <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis></Subscript>

We analyze the anelasticity of the earth using group delays of P-body waves of deep (>200 km) events in the period range 4–32 s for epicentral distances of 5–85 degrees. We show that Time Frequency Analysis (TFA), which is usually applied to very dispersive surface waves, can be applied to the much less dispersive P-body waves to measure frequency-dependent group delays with respect to arrival times predicted from the CMT centroid location and PREM reference model. We find that the measured dispersion is due to: (1) anelasticity (described by the P-wave quality factor Q _p ), (2) ambient noise, which results in randomly distributed noise in the dispersion measurements, (3) interference with other phases (triplications, crustal reverberations, conversions at deep mantle boundaries), for which the total dispersion depends on the amplitude and time separation between the different phases, and (4) the source time function, which is dispersive when the wavelet is asymmetrical or contains subevents. These mechanisms yield dispersion ranging in the order of one to 10 seconds with anelasticity responsible for the more modest dispersion. We select 150 seismograms which all have small coda amplitudes extending to ten percent of the main arrival, minimizing the effect of interference. The main P waves have short durations, minimizing effects of the source. We construct a two-layer model of Q _p with an interface at 660 km depth and take Q _p constant with period. Our data set is too small to solve for a possible frequency dependence of Q _p . The upper mantle Q ₁ is 476 [299–1176] and the lower mantle Q ₂ is 794 [633–1064] (the bracketed numbers indicate the 68 percent confidence range of Q _p ^–1). These values are in-between the AK135 model (Kennett et al., 1995) and the PREM model (Dziewonski and Anderson, 1981) for the lower mantle and confirm results of Warren and Shearer (2000) that the upper mantle is less attenuating than PREM and AK135.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">R/S</Emphasis> analysis of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Dst</Emphasis> index

The paper addresses estimation of the Hurst exponent for time series of the hourly values of the Dst index for the period from 1957 to 2011. It is found that the Hurst exponent is 0.79–0.94 for yearly intervals and 0.8–1.0 for monthly intervals. Based on R/S graphs, the Dst cycles are identified; they range from 3–4 months to 2.2 years and from 8.5 to 22 years in length. It is shown that a Dst time series can be quite satisfactorily described by an α-stable Levy process.     

Behavior of <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2 after sunset

The time behavior of the foF2 and hmF2 values at the time moment T(ss + 2 h) 2 h after sunset is considered. It is assumed that at this moment, the horizontal winds in the thermosphere in the strongest way influence hmF2 and, therefore, foF2. It is found that a fairly well pronounced and statistically significant change (trend) is observed for the foF2(ss + 2)/foF2(14) ratio, the sign of the change being different for different stations and even different seasons at the same station. A similar picture is obtained for the value of hmF2(ss + 2). It is shown that a positive correlation between the trends of these two values is observed. This confirms the initial concept of the paper that the foF2 and hmF2 trends are caused by long-term trends in the thermospheric dynamics.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>c</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> wave attenuation of South African earthquakes

Quality factor Q, which describes the attenuation of seismic waves with distance, was determined for South Africa using data recorded by the South African National Seismograph Network. Because of an objective paucity of seismicity in South Africa and modernisation of the seismograph network only in 2007, I carried out a coda wave decay analysis on only 13 tectonic earthquakes and 7 mine-related events for the magnitude range 3.6?≤?M _L ?≤?4.4. Up to five seismograph stations were utilised to determine Q _c for frequencies at 2, 4, 8 and 16 Hz resulting in 84 individual measurements. The constants Q ₀ and α were determined for the attenuation relation Q _c(f)?=?Q ₀ f ^α . The result was Q ₀?=?396?±?29 and α?=?0.72?±?0.04 for a lapse time of 1.9*(t _s???t ₀) (time from origin time t ₀ to the start of coda analysis window is 1.9 times the S-travel time, t _s) and a coda window length of 80 s. This lapse time and coda window length were found to fit the most individual frequencies for a signal-to-noise ratio of at least 3 and a minimum absolute correlation coefficient for the envelope of 0.5. For a positive correlation coefficient, the envelope amplitude increases with time and Q _c was not calculated. The derived Q _c was verified using the spectral ratio method on a smaller data set consisting of nine earthquakes and one mine-related event recorded by up to four seismograph stations. Since the spectral ratio method requires absolute amplitudes in its calculations, site response tests were performed to select four appropriate stations without soil amplification and/or signal distortion. The result obtained for Q _S was Q ₀?=?391?±?130 and α?=?0.60?±?0.16, which agrees well with the coda Q _c result.     

Combined method of <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>-, <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-, and <Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis>-approximations in solving the problems of geophysics and geomorphology

The interrelation between different modifications of the method of linear integral representation is studied. Combined approximations of the topography and geopotential fields enable more refined tuning of the method in solving inverse problems of geophysics and geomorphology and provide a more complete allowance for the a priori information about the surface elevation data and elements of anomalous fields. A technique for finding the numerical solution for the inverse problem for determining the mass distributions equivalent in terms of the external field is presented. The results of the mathematical experiment are discussed.     

Long-term changes in the relation between <Emphasis Type="Italic">foF</Emphasis>2 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">hmF</Emphasis>2

The change in the dependence of the F2-layer critical frequency on its height hmF2 is considered based on two sources of initial data used earlier by the authors. It is found that the slope k of the foF2 dependence on hmF2 systematically decreases from the earlier (“etalon”) period, 1958–1980, to the later periods of 1988–2010, 1998–2010, and 1998–2014. Since the foF2 value depends on the atomic oxygen concentration in the F region much more strongly than hmF2, the found decrease in k confirms the concept of a decrease in the atomic oxygen concentration in the thermosphere with time previously formulated by the authors.     

Linear transformations of anomalous potential fields using <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis> approximations

Methods for linear transformations of anomalous physical fields based on R and S approximations of the elements of the initial field are described. The results of the numerical experiment and analytical extension of the gravity field measured in a detailed gravity survey in two regions of Russia are presented.     

Region-specific <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-wave attenuation for earthquakes in northwestern Iran

In this study, continuous wavelet transform is applied to estimate the frequency-dependent quality factor of shear waves, Q _S , in northwestern Iran. The dataset used in this study includes velocigrams of more than 50 events with magnitudes between 4.0 and 6.5, which have occurred in the study area. The CWT-based method shows a high-resolution technique for the estimation of S-wave frequency-dependent attenuation. The quality factor values are determined in the form of a power law as Q _S (f)?=?(147?±?16)f ^0.71?±?0.02 and (126?±?12)f ^0.73?±?0.02 for vertical and horizontal components, respectively, where f is between 0.9 and 12 Hz. Furthermore, in order to verify the reliability of the suggested Q _S estimator method, an additional test is performed by using accelerograms of Ahar-Varzaghan dual earthquakes on August 11, 2012, of moment magnitudes 6.4 and 6.3 and their aftershocks. Results indicate that the estimated Q _S values from CWT-based method are not very sensitive to the numbers and types of waveforms used (velocity or acceleration).     

Multi-scale Tomography for Crustal <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis> Velocities in Southern California

Seismic tomography is a viable tool in building depth-velocity models in the presence of strong lateral velocity variations. In this study 3-D P- and S-velocity models for the crust of southern California are constrained using more than 1,000,000 P-wave first arrivals and 130,000 S-wave arrivals from local earthquakes. To cope with the uneven distribution of raypaths, a multi-scale tomography is applied with overlapping model cells of different sizes. Within the 300 × 480 × 39 km³ model volume, the smallest cell size is 10 × 10 × 3 km³. During the iterations of velocity updating, earthquake hypocenters are determined using both P and S arrivals, and full 3-D ray tracing is implemented. Except near the edges and in the lower crust, the resultant models are robust according to various tests on the effects of reference models, resolution and signal-to-noise ratio. The tomographic velocities at shallow depths correlate very well with the regional geology of southern California. In the upper crust the P-wave and S-wave models exhibit slow velocities in major sedimentary basins and fast velocities in areas of crystalline rocks. Mid-crustal low velocity zones are present under the Coso Range, San Gabriel Mountains, and a large portion of the Mojave Desert. P- and S-velocity patterns maintain their similarity in the lower crust though the models are less reliable there.     

Application of Fisher method to discriminating earthquakes and explosions using criterion <Emphasis Type="Italic">m</Emphasis><Subscript>b</Subscript>/<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>

We try to give a quantitative and global discrimination function by studying m _b/M _S data using Fisher method that is a kind of pattern recognition methods. The reliability of the function is also analyzed. The results show that this criterion works well and has a global feature, which can be used as first-level filtering criterions in event identification. The quantitative and linear discrimination function makes it possible to identify events automatically and achieve the goal to react the events quickly and effectively.     

Mechanisms of stratification of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2 layer and formation of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>3 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">G</Emphasis> layers in the equatorial ionosphere

The paper is dedicated to the studies of formation mechanisms of additional layers in the equatorial ionosphere carried out using numerical simulations with use of the Global Self-Consistent Model of the Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Protonosphere (GSM TIP) modified in the part of the solution of the electric field equation in the Earth’s ionosphere. Calculations were preformed for quiet geomagnetic conditions using the MSIS-90 model for the calculation of thermospheric parameters. The obtained spatio-temporal pattern of thermospheric circulation and the variations in the dynamo electric field obtained on its basis make it possible to reproduce the stratification effect of the F2 layer and the appearance of the F3 layer in the equatorial ionosphere due to the action of the nonuniform in height zonal electric field at the geomagnetic equator. On the basis of the earlier presented results of calculations using the modified GSM TIP model, the appearance of a maximum in the vertical profile of the electron density at a height of ∼1000 km formed by H+ ions, which we called the G layer, has been predicted. Numerical simulations showed that this layer is formed by the meridional component of the thermospheric wind and is related to the formation of the nighttime midlatitude maximum at heights of the ionospheric F region.     

Combined Method of <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>-, <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-, and <Emphasis Type="Italic">R</Emphasis>-Approximations of Increased Dimensionality in Solving the Problems of Geophysics and Geomorphology

The interrelation between different variants of the method of linear integral representations in the spaces of an arbitrary dimension is considered. The combined approximations of the topography and geopotential fields allows the selection of the optimal parameters of the method in solving a wide range of inverse problems in geophysics and geomorphology, as well as a most thorough use of the a priori information about the elevations and elements of anomalous fields. A method for numerically solving an inverse problem on finding the equivalent, in terms of the external field, mass distributions in the ordinary three-dimensional (3D) space and in the four-dimensional (4D) space is described.     

Attenuative Dispersion of <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis> Waves and Crustal <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> in Turkey and Germany

We have measured group delays of the spectral components of high-frequency P-waves along two portions of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey and in a region of southern Germany. Assuming that the observed dispersion is associated with attenuation in the crust and that it can be described by a continuous relaxation model, we obtained Q and the high-frequency relaxation times for those waves for each of the three regions. Individual P-wave Q values exhibit large scatter, but mean values in the NAFZ increase from about 25 to 60 over the distance range 5–90 km. Mean Q values are somewhat higher in the eastern portion of the NAFZ than in the western portion for measurements made at distances between 10 and 30 km. P-wave Q values in Germany range between about 50 and 300 over the hypocentral distance range 20–130 km. In that region we separated the effects of Q for basement rock (2–10 km depth) from that of the overlying sediment (0–2 km depth) using a least-squares method. Q varies between 100 and 500 in the upper 8–10 km of basement, with mean values for most of the distance range being about 250. Q in the overlying sediments ranges between 6 and 10. Because of large scatter in the Q determinations we investigated possible effects that variations of the source-time function of the earthquakes and truncation of the waveform may have on Q determinations. All of our studies indicate that measurement errors are relatively large and suggest that useful application of the method requires many observations, and that the method will be most useful in regions where the number of oscillations following the initial P pulse is minimized. Even though there is large scatter in our Q determinations, the mean values that we obtained in Turkey are consistent with those found in earlier studies. Our conclusions that Q is significantly higher in the basement rock of Germany than in the basement rock of Turkey and that Q is lower in western Turkey than in eastern Turkey are also consistent with results of Q studies using Lg coda.     

Estimating seismic moments and Lg <Emphasis Type="Italic">Q</Emphasis> using Lg spectra

A multi-event and multi-station inverse method is presented in the paper to simultaneously estimate the seismic moments (M ₀) and source corner frequencies (f _c) of several Jiashi (Xinjiang, China) earthquakes, as well as the apparent Lg Q models for the paths from Jiashi to eight seismic stations (WMQ, AAK, TLG, MAKZ, KUR, VOS, ZRN and CHK) in Central Asia. The resultant seismic moments correlate well with the M ₀ values obtained by Harvard University using the centroid moment tensor (CMT) inversion and the surface-wave magnitudes as well. After the correction by a typical value of average radiation coefficient for regional SV waves, the M ₀ values from Lg spectral inversion are still close to the corresponding values obtained from CMT inversion. The obtained apparent Q _0Lg values (Lg Q at 1 Hz) are consistent with the tectonic features of corresponding propagation paths. The Q _0Lg values are 351±87, 349±86 and 300±27 for the paths from Jiashi to AAK, TLG and MAKZ, respectively. They are smaller than Q _0Lg values for the paths to KUR, VOS, ZRN and CHK, which are 553±72, 569±58, 550±57 and 603±65, respectively. These results agree with the condition that the paths to AAK, TLG and MAKZ mainly propagate through the mountainous Tianshan area where relatively strong seismic activities and large variations of topography are exhibited, while the paths to KUR, VOS, ZRN and CHK mainly propagate through the stable area of Kazak platform. The Q _0Lg value for the path to WMQ is 462±56. This is also in agreement with the condition that the path to WMQ is basically along the border area between Tianshan Mountain and Tarim Basin, and along this path the variations of topography and crustal thickness are moderate in comparison with that along the path to MAKZ.     

Dayside auroras during unusually large positive values of the IMF <Emphasis Type="Italic">B</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">z</Emphasis></Subscript> component

The characteristics of dayside auroras during the large (16–24 nT) positive values of the IMF B _z component, observed on January 14, 1988, during the interaction between the Earth’s magnetosphere and the body of the interplanetary magnetic cloud, have been studied based on the optical observations on Heiss Island. A wide band of diffuse red luminosity with an intensity of 1–2 kilorayleigh (kR) was observed during 6 h in the interval 1030–1630 MLT at latitudes higher than 75° CGL. Rayed auroral arcs, the brightness of which in the 557.7 nm emission sharply increased to 3–7 kR in the postnoon sector immediately after the polarity reversal of the IMF B _y component from positive to negative, were continuously registered within the band. Bright auroral arcs were observed at the equatorward edge of red luminosity. It has been found out that the red auroral intensity increases and the band equatorward boundary shifts to lower latitudes with increasing solar wind dynamic pressure. However, a direct proportional dependence of the variations in the auroral features on the dynamic pressure variations has not been found. It has been concluded that the source of bright discrete auroras is located in the region of the low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) on closed geomagnetic field lines. The estimated LLBL thickness is ∼3 R _e . It has been concluded that the intensity of the dayside red band depends on the solar wind plasma density, whereas the position of the position equatorward boundary depends on the dynamic pressure value and its variations.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Numerical simulation of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>2-layer stratification and appearance of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">F</Emphasis>3 and <Emphasis Type="Italic">G</Emphasis> layers in the equatorial ionosphere: The morphology of the phenomena

This work is devoted to a numerical simulation of the equatorial ionosphere, performed using the GSM TIP model completed with a new block for calculating the electric field. It has been indicated that the usage of the wind system calculated according to the MSIS-90 model makes it possible to reproduce the electromagnetic drift velocities at the equator, the effect of the F2-layer stratification, and the appearance of the F3 layer in the equatorial ionosphere. The calculations performed using the modified GSM TIP model made it possible to detect a maximum in the electron density vertical profile at an altitude of ∼1000 km, formed by H⁺ ions, which we called the G layer. If this layer actually exists, it can be observed during sounding the low-latitude ionosphere from satellites during dark time of day.